Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

OC Dooley

Nets / Heat Over 201

The last time Miami appeared on the Disney Family of Network was in the one of league Sunday “showcase” games on ABC where despite an OVERTIME session LeBron James and company still held below the closing total (186’) in Chicago.  Just one night later the Heat returned in front of their own home fans with a spot much higher (205) but still stayed below the number in a 99-90 game versus Washington where the two-time defending champions snapped a three game straight-up losing skid.  During to the fact that high profile Miami is now 6-2 “below” the spot in the past eight games tonight’s total has actually decreased from the opening offshore figure (202) giving us some value.  For the entire season to date when coming off a victory in South Beach, Miami has gone a resounding 12-3 OVER/HOME with the offense in this situation averaging a whopping 110 points per contest.  That explains why tonight’s total is above the 200 point plateau even though visiting Brooklyn has excellent defensive talent led by Kevin Garnett who is returning from a lengthy injury stint

Blade
useravatar
Online
217051 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Eastern Michigan/ Northern Illinois Under 111: Going to the well one more time with an Under in an Eastern Michigan Game. Both teams play extremely slow paced games and even more so when they meet each other. The Under is 8-1 the last 9 meetings between these teams and their have been some ugly games over that stretch as 6 of those games (In regulation) have not even reach 100 points. Over the last 8 games in the series (reg) there has been an average of just 92.3 ppg being scored. That is unheard of in the shot clock ERA, but hey I know I have been on some of those Unders, so I am happy. This year the teams played twice and put up 94 points in regulation in game 1 and just 108 points in game two. A I stated these teams really slow the pace and when they do shoot they are nt that good at it, as EMU shoots just 40% from the field, while NIU hits just 38.6% of their shots. Both teams are also below 30% from long range and below 68.2% from the charity stripe. These teams just don't shoot or score very well. Now on defense both teams have been playing very well of late as NIU has allowed just 58 ppg in their last 5 games, while EMU has allowed just 57.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Two bad offenses in a slow down game vs two defenses that are playing great right now. This may be another in this series that fails to hit 100 points.

Boston U/ American U Over 124: I just feel this line is to low. I know that Championship games usually breed Unders, but this will be an exception. The Boston Terriers get this game on their home court, where they have averaged 75.3 ppg on the year. They have also put up 91 points in each of their first two Patriot League tournament games and they scored 71 points on American in the game between this teams this year on this floor. American plays the best defense in the league, but they have allowed 65.9 ppg in their last 7 games away from home, with those games averaging 132.1 ppg. American ins not a great offense, but they are 9th in the nation in shooting overall and 47th in shooting the 3-ball. The Terriers have allowed 64.6 ppg at home and 67.5 ppg overall, plus they are weak defending the three, ranking 217th in that category. This should be a high scoring game than most think. Boston U home games have averaged 139.9 ppg, while the two meetings between these teams put up 133 and 142 points. This one should hit the 130's at least.

Texas Tech/ Oklahoma State Under 136: The only real shot that Texas Tech has is to slow the pace of this game down and I feel they will be able to. Oklahoma State does have a strong offense led by Marcus smart, but this Texas Tech team can play solid defense as they have allowed just 68.1 ppg on the year and just 67.6 ppg in their last 5 games. On offense, Texas Tech is really struggling as they come in averaging just 56.6 ppg in their last 5 games and they have scored more than 65 points just once in their last 12 games. This struggling offense will now take on and OSU defense that has been very good of late, allowing just 61.8 ppg in their last 6 games during regulation. Both teams play good defense and only one team can score, and if OSU gets up big tyey should pull starters to get read for the next day. I see this one failing to hit 130 points.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217051 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

River City Sharps

Colorado -9

This one will be the second game of the day in Las Vegas as USC takes on Colorado in the Pac 12 Tournament. Last year at this time, Andy Enfield was getting his Fla Gulf Coast team ready for a magical Cinderella run, but this year is a much different story as his USC Trojans have struggled to an 11-20 mark this season. For Colorado, even with key injuries during the season, the Buffaloes have still managed to go 21-10. Much like the first game of the day in the Pac 12, the difference in this game to the Sharps is defense. USC is one of the worst defensive teams in the Pac 12, giving up almost 81 ppg this year. Colorado gives up 70.3 ppg on the season. These teams played twice this season and Colorado won both matchups by 21 and 9 points respectively. USC is just 18-36 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and we think that Boyle will have the Buffaloes ready to play today and move on in the Pac 12 bracket.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217051 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

Dr. Bob

Opinion - Old Dominion (-3½) over Marshall

Marshall won their opening tournament game last night 63-59 over lowly Florida Atlantic but the Thundering Herd have a strong history of inconsistency under coach Tom Herrion. In fact, Marshall is just 14-40-1 ATS in games following a win in 4 seasons under Herrion (1-21 ATS recently), including 0-15 ATS if their season win percentage is less than .600. My ratings favor Old Dominion by 3½ points and the last two seasons Marshall has been more than 5 points worse after a win than they have been overall. I’d take Old Dominion in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

Opinion – Seton Hall (-2½) over Butler

Butler won both games against Seton Hall this season by an average of 12 points but that 24 point total margin was due to variance, as both teams are expected to make about 33% of their 3-point shots against each other but Butler made 18 of 34 (53%) while Seton Hall made just 10 of 36 (28%). Variance accounted for 22 of those 24 points and Seton Hall applies to a solid 66-35-2 ATS immediate revenge situation (they just played on Saturday) as well as a very strong 134-43 ATS situation that is 34-12 ATS when applying to a team with double-revenge. Unfortunately my ratings favor the Pirates by just 1 point and I’m not willing to give up more than a point of line value to make this a Best Bet. I’ll lean with the Pirates because the situation is so good and I’d take Seton Hall in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Opinion – DePaul (+11) over Georgetown

DePaul applies to a very good 40-5-2 ATS subset of an 86-28-4 ATS situation and a 33-4 ATS double-revenge situation. However, the Blue Demons have been about 4 ½ points worse than their season rating in 11 games without star Cleveland Melvin, who left the team in late January. The line has adjusted for Melvin’s absence but not quite enough, as my ratings based on current personnel for each team favors the Hoyas by 12½ points. I’ll still lean with the Blue Demons at +11 or more, as I can certainly see the Hoyas looking past this game after beating the DePaul twice in the regular season and I’d take DePaul in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.

Opinion - George Mason (-5) over Fordham

The two worst teams in the Atlantic 10 square off and underdog Fordham won the only meeting between these teams – a 76-70 home win. George Mason, however, applies to a 76-22-3 ATS conference tournament revenge situation that is 15-1 ATS when applying to a team with a losing record. My issue is that my ratings only favor the Patriots by 4 points so I’ll just lean with George Mason at -5 or less and I’d take George Mason in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217051 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 12

Cajun Sports

Fresno State -7

The Bulldogs face off against the Falcons on Wednesday evening.  The Falcons do have home loss revenge in this contest losing 68 to 51 in their last game against the Bulldogs. Even playing with revenge it is not enough to back this Falcons team, revenge must be accompanied by solid play and the ability to avenge and this bureau does not believe they can get the win or even cover against the spread. Fresno State is 8-1 ATS on the conference road and 6-0 ATS on the road after covering four of their last five outings. Finally we see the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road facing a team with a losing record. Lay the points

Blade
useravatar
Online
217051 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45105
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
283902
Average Posts Per Hour:
1.9
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3630
Newest User:
Henry Patton
Members Online:
3
Guests Online:
2819

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com