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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2



Golden State at Toronto
The Warriors head to Toronto today where they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Raptors. Golden State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2)

Game 801-802: New York at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.039; Chicago 128.901
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 185
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7); Over

Game 803-804: Golden State at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Toronto 118.655
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 4 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2); Under

Game 805-806: Philadelphia at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 99.702; Orlando 116.947
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 17; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 10; 213
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-10); Over

Game 807-808: Utah at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 113.545; Indiana 127.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12 1/2); Under

Game 809-810: Dallas at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.350; San Antonio 122.903
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+5 1/2); Over

Game 811-812: Charlotte at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.662; Oklahoma City 126.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Under

Game 813-814: Atlanta at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.871; Phoenix 125.897
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 14; 221
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Over


Tampa Bay at Colorado
The Avalanche host a Tampa Bay team that is coming off a 4-2 win over Dallas last night and is 1-10 in its last 11 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Colorado is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165)

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Washington (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.736; Washington 12.182
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under

Game 3-4: San Jose at New Jersey (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.473; New Jersey 12.037
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+120); Over

Game 5-6: Florida at NY Islanders (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.593; NY Islanders 10.133
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+130); Over

Game 7-8: Ottawa at Vancouver (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.336; Vancouver 11.876
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Under

Game 9-10: Boston at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.361; NY Rangers 11.202
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); Over

Game 11-12: Carolina at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.482; Anaheim 11.960
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-200); Under

Game 13-14: Tampa Bay at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.852; Colorado 12.425
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Over

Game 15-16: St. Louis at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.047; Phoenix 12.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+115); Under

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Stanford at Arizona
The Cardinal head to the McKale Center tonight to face an Arizona team that is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 home games. Arizona is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-11)

Game 815-816: Ohio State at Indiana (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 71.412; Indiana 65.634
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 6; 122
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-2); Under

Game 817-818: DePaul at St. John's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 57.398; St. John's 69.829
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 12 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: St. John's by 15; 141
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+15); Over

Game 819-820: George Mason at George Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 56.258; George Washington 68.467
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 12; 138
Vegas Line: George Washington by 10; 141
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-10); Under

Game 821-822: Maryland at Clemson (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 65.896; Clemson 64.971
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 1
Vegas Line: Clemson by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+2 1/2)

Game 823-824: East Carolina at Marshall (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 53.903; Marshall 52.529
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 3
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+3)

Game 825-826: Southern Mississippi at Florida Atlantic (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 61.274; Florida Atlantic 50.177
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 11
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-8 1/2)

Game 827-828: Tulane at Florida International (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 49.785; Florida International 56.958
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 7
Vegas Line: Florida International by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-5 1/2)

Game 829-830: Marquette at Villanova (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 63.603; Villanova 76.022
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 12 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Villanova by 10; 140
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-10); Over

Game 831-832: UTEP at North Texas (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 59.635; North Texas 52.621
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 7
Vegas Line: UTEP by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-3 1/2)

Game 833-834: Wisconsin at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 74.478; Penn State 64.803
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 6; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-6); Under

Game 835-836: Louisiana Tech at UAB (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 60.003; UAB 59.161
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 1
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+3 1/2)

Game 837-838: South Alabama at UL-Lafayette (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 46.427; UL-Lafayette 60.963
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-9 1/2)

Game 839-840: TX-San Antonio at Tulsa (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 45.189; Tulsa 67.694
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 20
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-20)

Game 841-842: Old Dominion at Charlotte (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 49.909; Charlotte 55.673
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 6
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 3
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-3)

Game 843-844: Georgia Tech at Florida State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 56.514; Florida State 68.840
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 12 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida State by 10; 134
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-10); Over

Game 845-846: New Mexico at Nevada (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 67.523; Nevada 57.324
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 8
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-4 1/2)

Game 847-848: Stanford at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 66.954; Arizona 80.581
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Arizona by 11; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-11); Under

Game 849-850: Oregon State at UCLA (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.025; UCLA 72.607
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 10 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: UCLA by 13; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+13); Over

Game 851-852: Quinnipiac at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 54.881; Marist 56.712
Dunkel Line: Marist by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Marist

Game 853-854: Monmouth at Siena (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 44.693; Siena 57.312
Dunkel Line: Siena by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 7
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-7)

Game 855-856: Niagara at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 47.670; St. Peter's 49.528
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 2
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+5 1/2)

Game 857-858: Rider at Iona (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 48.015; Iona 62.995
Dunkel Line: Iona by 15
Vegas Line: Iona by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-11 1/2)

Game 859-860: Canisius at Manhattan (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 54.175; Manhattan 62.155
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 8
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-5 1/2)

Game 861-862: Purdue at Iowa (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 61.495; Iowa 78.617
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 17; 147
Vegas Line: Iowa by 14; 151
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-14); Under

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Sam Martin

Oregon St. at UCLA
Prediction: UCLA

Despite having guards Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams missing Thursday night's game at home against Oregon, the Bruins nearly pulled out the win anyway - forcing overtime with a miracle three-pointer at the end of regulation before coming up four points shy in extra time. Both guards are back tonight and we expect to see the UCLA team that was 15-1 on this floor prior to Thursday's loss, and for the Bruins to win this game in a blowout.

Not much of a fight expected from Oregon State who is just 4-9 away from home on the season, and even including Thursday night's loss the Bruins are still outscoring teams by 15 ppg here at home. UCLA was upset at Oregon State earlier this year, and while PAC 12 teams losing on the road isn't exactly news this season, UCLA has traditionally owned this series going 26-7 SU and 22-10-1 ATS. Bruins back at full strength and they regain their home dominance!

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Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

The Raptors return home off a 5-point home favorite loss to host the Warriors in a non-conference clash north of the border Sunday afternoon. Toronto will take the floor sporting a 15-8 ATS dog log this season, including 8-1 ATS the last nine games they've been on the receiving end from the linesmaker. With the Warriors off a 23-pont road win, look for Golden State to fall to 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games against opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

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Art Aronson

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche -145

The Avalanche got a nice 4-2 win over Phoenix at home on Friday night and I expect we see the team take care of business here again. The Avalanche is a strong 20-8-3 at home this season and is 12-5 after games where they have won by two goals or more. Semyon Varlamov dispelled any bad thoughts the team could have had after his poor showing at the Sochi Olympics with a strong 40 saves against the Coyotes. The Avs also come here with strong motivation to win this game after falling to Tampa Bay 2-5 in road game back in late January. Colorado is a strong 16-5 when revenging a loss to an opponent this season. Tampa Bay is in the midst of a four game road trip here and played yesterday in Dallas. It is a long road trip the Mile High city and it would be a lot to ask the Lightning to win this one outright. Colorado will want to take care of business here before heading to Chicago to play a strong team on the road. Consider laying the fair price here for the home team.

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Scott Spreitzer

DePaul vs. St. John's    
Play: St. John's -15

The Red Storm could use a win following back-to-back losses to Villanova and Xavier. Much has changed since the Johnnies lost by two at Depaul earlier this season. Steve Lavin's squad was looking nothing like a potential Big Dance invite, but since then, they have positioned themselves on the bubble and could certainly use an impressive wide margin win in this one. Depaul is not the same time that they were in the earlier meeting. Gone is star forward Cleveland Melvin, who hasn't played since January 20. The Blue Demons are just 1-8 SU since Melvin was shown the door, a welcomed subtraction (by SJU) from the Depaul roster after he had his way in scoring and on the glass in the first meeting between these teams. As we head into the rematch the Blue Demons have allowed over 76 ppg on 47% shooting on the road this season and will be hard-pressed to keep-up with a Johnnie's team that has held their 17 "guests" to 39% shooting. We should note that Depaul is 0-6 ATS in March road games under embattled coach Oliver Purnell, losing by an average final score of 87-64. And his teams are just 1-10 ATS off an underdog conference home win (Depaul upset Seton Hall last time out). Meanwhile, St. John's gets a chance to fatten their current 8-2 ATS run. I'm recommending a play on St. John's, minus the points.

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Rob Vinciletti

Louisiana Tech vs. UAB    
Play: UAB +3½

UAB has covered 7 of 8 as a dog and has won all 3 meetings here at home vs La. Tech. The Blazers won their last game at Rice despite shooting just 36%. They are a solid 12-0 at home off a road game. They have held opposing teams to under 40% shooting in each of the last 3 games. LA. Tech has lost both times this season vs teams ranked 100 to 150 in the RPI Scale. UAB is a live dog here at home taking points.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

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Steve Rosen

San Jose Sharks vs. New Jersey Devils    
Play: New Jersey Devils +120

The New Jersey Devils returned from the Olympic break and discovered their offense. After netting 11 goals in a pair of routs, New Jersey will get a third straight victory when it hosts the San Jose Sharks on Sunday. The Devils netted four power-play tallies in a 6-1 trouncing of the New York Islanders on Saturday.The Sharks goalie Antti Niemi has struggled away from the SAP Center at San Jose - posting a 10-10-3 mark with a 2.77 goals-against average. Sharks are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey.
Home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

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Jim Feist

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: San Antonio Spurs

The battle of Texas resumes here on Sunday as the Dallas Mavericks play their instate rivals, San Antonio. Both teams playing exceptionally well this season as Dallas comes into this contest with a 35-24 record and the Spurs a 41-16 mark. The Mavs had won four straight before losing last time out at home against the Bulls, 100-91. As for the bettors, it's been hit and miss lately on the Mavs, going just 3-5 ATS the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Spurs trail Oklahoma City for the best record in the Western Conference by just 1 1/2 games. The Spurs have won seven of their last 10 games. Tony Parker leads the 6th best scoring offense in the league with a 17.7 ppg average. Tim Duncan continues to produce game in and game out, leading the Spurs in rebounds (10.1 rpg) and averaging 15.5 ppg. But what I really like here is the matchup. The Spurs have just had the Mavs number for some years now. This season the Spurs are 2-0 both S/U and ATS against the Mavs, winning both games by a combined 31 points. In fact, the Spurs have covered the last seven straight and 12 of the last 13 in this series. When one club dominates another over the years it can become a head game and that's what we get here on Sunday. The Mavs just may not believe they can beat the Spurs. And I'm betting on it.

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Jesse Schule

St. Louis at Phoenix
Pick: Under

The Blues have themselves a new goaltender, and veteran Ryan Miller will make his debut in Phoenix tonight. Miller has to be happy, coming over from the worst team in the league, to play as the starter for a top contender. Miller had been playing great for the Sabres prior to the break, and he stood on his head, stopping 36 shots in a 3-2 win over Carolina in his first game back. He couldn't ask to be put in a better situation, joining a team that ranks 3rd in the NHL in goals against. The Blues have dropped back to back games coming out of the Olympic break, both by a score of 1-0. They could be in for another tough,gritty, defensive battle against the Coyotes tonight, as Phoenix is battling to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. St. Louis though has won seven of the last 10 meetings with Phoenix, and nine of those 10 games saw the total fall below 5.5. goals. The Coyotes have also played five straight unders on home ice.

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Bruce Marshall

Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers
Pick: Utah Jazz

As we have noted on these pages in recent weeks, Utah has been playing at a near-.500 clip since mid-December, which roughly coincides with the enhanced contributions of Michigan rookie G Trey Burke, who missed the first few weeks of the season with a hand injury. So this is no automatic go-with situation for an Indiana side that seems to be a bit bored with a steady diet of Bucks, Lakers, Hawks, Celtics, and T-wolves in recent weeks as Pacers bide time until more interesting opponents appear on the upcoming schedule in March, with the next showdown vs. Miami not until later in the month. Pacers have covered just 5 of last 17 after another spread loss last Thursday vs. Bucks, and they'll be facing a more-confident team than the Utah bunch they beat by nine way back on Dec. 4 in Salt Lake City. Indy also working recently-added Evan Turner into the rotation, and there could be a slight period of adjustment. Jazz (5-3 SU last 8 thru Feb. 27) back at full strength with key PF Derrick Favors having returned to active duty after recent hip injury and scoring 18 ppg in first two upon his reactivation. If price floats into the teens, the recommendation for Utah becomes even stronger.

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David Glisan

San Antonio-5.5

San Antonio is a team that I'd rather go against than play on at this stage of the regular season.  It's no secret that they pick their spots, they've had some injuries lately (Tony Parker, Kawai Leonard) and Greg Popovich has no problem resting starters just for the hell of it.  This looks like a spot they'll show up.  Spurs will be getting Parker back here and are as healthy as they've been all year.  Dallas has a losing ATS record against opponents with winning records (10-12 ATS) and they've been dominated by the Spurs in head to head play.  San Antonio has won 5 straight at home going 4-1 ATS and are on a 8-2 SU/ATS run against the Mavs overall.  Teams have played twice this year with Spurs winning at home by 22 and in Dallas by 11.  Spurs play better defense, have a huge coaching edge and a deeper bench.  I look for them to earn another double digit win over their in-state rivals.

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Will Rogers

Charlotte vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City

Charlotte had a nice little run going before running into San Antonio on Friday. Previously, the Bobcats had won all four of their games since the All Star Break including an upset of Memphis at home.  But this current road trip is as trecherous as any team will be asked to go on all season.  It ends in Miami tomorrow night.  But before that is a date with an Oklahoma City side still trying to get things back on track following a shocking three-game losing streak.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Down But Not Out - The return of point guard Russell Westbrook to the lineup was supposed to make the Thunder better, not worse. But they shockingly lost the first three games with him back, all at home.  That losing streak, the team's longest of the season, doubled the amount of home losses OKC has taken this year.  They did rebound on Friday with a 113-107 win over Memphis.  That's thanks to Kevin Durant, who scored 30 of his game-high 37 points in the second half.

2.  Shooting Struggles - Charlotte has connected on only 37.3 percent of its field goal attempts the last three games.  That's simply not going to cut it. It certainly didn't in an 89-85 home loss to the Thunder earlier this season.  In that game, the Bobcats were 30 for 80 from the field.

3. X-Factor - Charlotte doesn't like playing teams from the Northwest Division. That's confirmed by a 4-17 ATS record.

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Bryan Power

St. Louis vs. Phoenix
Pick: St. Louis

The Blues have had a tough return to NHL ice, losing their first two games by 1-0 scores at Vancouver and Anaheim....

But I see tonight going much better as they face a Coyotes club that is also 0-2 since the season resumed.  Consider that the Blues had not been shut out all year before its happened in each of the last two games.  They still rank second in the league (behind Chicago) in goals per game. They have never been shut out in three consecutive games in franchise history.

Goaltending has never really been an issue for St. Louis as they rank near the top of the league w/ a 2.27 goals against average.  Yet they elected to make a potentially game-changing deal with Buffalo, bringing Ryan Miller into the fold.  Miller, who carried the league-worst Sabres all year, could make his debut between the pipes tonight.

St. Louis has also not lost three games in a row all season.  They beat Phoenix the last time they faced them 2-1 despite just 18 shots on net.  Remember that the Blues were 6-1-1 prior to the Olympic break.  They still have the top goal differential in the league (+59).  I just view the last two games as a minor bump in the road, two tough losses to two good teams.

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Jimmy Boyd

Texas San Antonio +20

This is the first meeting of the season for these C-USA rivals, and I think the lack of familiarity between the teams will make it hard for Tulsa to pick up a win by more than 20 points. The Roadrunners are averaging a respectable 69.2 points per game this season. That is right in line with the average opponent the Golden Hurricanes have faced this season. Tulsa comes into this game averaging 73.1 points per game which is also in line with the average opponent faced by the Roadrunners. Texas-San Antonio is definitely at a defensive disadvantage by allowing 77.5 points per game, but that is hardly enough to justify a 20 point spread on today's game.

This matchup fits into two very profitable system. In the first, you should play against favorites of 10 points or more like Tulsa after a game where they made 20 percent of their three point shots or worse when they are playing in a matchup involving two average shooting teams making 42.5 to 45 percent of their attempts after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 29-9 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The second system is to play on underdogs like Texas-San Antonio after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, when they are facing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. This system is 131-80 (62%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Joe Duffy

Purdue vs. Iowa
Play: 150½

Oddsmakers cannot keep pace with Iowa. In this case, we mean literally. The Hawkeyes have gone over seven straight, the last two by 33.5 or more. They have also gone over 11-of-15, six times by at least 16.5 points.

Purdue has also gone over 6-of-8 including three times in the last four contests exceeding the total by double-digits. Our power ratings have 162 points projected!

Roy Devyn Marble and Aaron White have each increased their scoring output each season in an Iowa uniform. Marble averaged 5.7 points as a freshman, 11.5 his sophomore campaign, 15.0 points as a junior, and 17.0 points this season as a senior.

White averaged 11.1 points as a rookie, 12.8 points as a sophomore, and 13.4 points this year as a junior. They are clearly improving in-season as well.

It is very hard to see either team slowing the pace and every metric indicates this line is much too low.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Jack Jones

Bobcats/Thunder Under 203½

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle similar to the first time these teams played this season.

Indeed, Oklahoma City beat Charlotte 89-85 on the road on December 27 for 174 combined points. This has been a low-scoring series throughout the years as 12 of the last 14 meetings between the Thunder and Bobcats have seen 200 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Oklahoma City.

I believe a big reason this number is inflated is due to the fact that the Thunder are coming off three straight high-scoring games. However, the Bobcats are coming off three straight low-scoring games in which they combined with their opponents for 177, 181 & 174 points. It appears the books are setting this total based on the Thunder's recent performances, not the Bobcats.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 76-31 (71%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Steve Janus

Oklahoma City Thunder -9

The Thunder snapped a three-game losing streak with a 113-107 home win over the Grizzlies, which was also their first win since the return of Russell Westbrook. It ended up taking some time for the rest of the team to adjust to Westbrook, but I believe Oklahoma City is back in sync. Given their poor play of late, I don't see the Thunder taking this game lightly and I wouldn't be surprised if got ugly in a hurry. Keep in mind the last time Charlotte visited Oklahoma City, the Thunder came away with a 114-69 victory.

There's a key system in play favoring a play on Oklahoma City. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points over their last 10 games against an opponent who as gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 71-38 (65%) ATS since 1996. Adding to this we see that the Bobcats are a miserable 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games with a total set at 200 or more points and have been outscored in these games by an average of 15.6 ppg.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Dave Price

Toronto Raptors +2½

Toronto lost a triple-overtime contest to Washington Thursday, but it has had two days to recover and hasn't had to travel. I believe the Raptors will actually be fresher than a Golden State squad that is playing its fourth road game in a week. The Warriors are off a blowout win over the Knicks and have a showdown at Indiana on deck, placing them in a potential letdown spot. The Raptors lost the season's first meeting by nine points at Golden State so they will be fully invested. The Raptors are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games when playing on two days' rest. The Warriors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, March 2

Doug Upstone

Louisiana Tech vs. UAB    
Play: Louisiana Tech -4

On Sunday, Play Against home underdogs like UAB, after three straight games where both teams scored 70 points or less, against opponent (Louisiana Tech) after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The thinking behind this free pick is teams like Louisiana Tech are bound to play towards their norm, especially as road favorites and UAB's troubles scoring and the fact they they are a home pooch shows if they fall behind, they might not be able to catch up. Since 2009, this precise situation is 42-15 ATS, 73.7 percent.

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