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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 5

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 5

HOUSTON (2 - 10) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 9) - 12/5/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston

Houston at Jacksonville
Houston: 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Jacksonvile: 2-10 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 5

NFL Week 14

Texans (2-10) @ Jaguars (3-9) —
Jax won three of last four games after an 0-8 start, but all three wins were on road; they upset Texans 29-27 (+11) for their first win in Week 10, recovering three Houston fumbles (+2 turnovers) in game where Texans converted 10-18 on 3rd down and were outgained by 148 yards. Jaguars won field position battle in last six games (+8 vs Texans) after losing it in first six; they’re 0-5 at home, with 27-14 loss to Arizona closest of five games. Houston lost its last 10 games, despite scoring 23+ points in four of last five; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread this year, 0-6 when favored. Texans lost last four road games after winning season opener at San Diego by a FG. Texans won five of last six series games, winning 24-14/27-7 in last two visits here. Series was swept in six of last nine years. Jags were -9 in turnovers their first five games; they’re +3 in last seven- road team covered their last seven games. Home teams are 1-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, six of last eight Jaguar games went over the total.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 5

Texans at Jaguars

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-10) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-9) Line:  Houston -3, Total: 43

The Texans hope to wake up from a nightmarish 10 straight losses when they visit the upstart Jaguars on Thursday night.

Houston is 3-7 ATS during its skid, but it has lost each of the past six games by seven points or less, falling 34-31 at home to New England last week.

Since starting the season 0-8, Jacksonville is 3-1 (SU and ATS), with all three victories coming on the road, including last week’s 32-28 win in Cleveland. But at home, the Jags are 0-4 (SU and ATS) and losing by an average score of 29 to 6. Before the Texans lost 13-6 to the Jags in an ugly game two weeks ago, they had won five straight in this series (4-1 ATS).

Both teams have negative betting trends working against them, as Houston is 5-17 ATS (23%) versus very bad defensive teams (27+ PPG allowed) since 1992, while Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS (18%) as a home underdog over the past two seasons.

The Texans had hoped to get TE Owen Daniels (broken fibula) back in time for this game, but he has already been ruled out. The only significant recent injury for the Jaguars is DE Jeremy Mincey, who is questionable with a knee injury that has forced him to miss the past two games. The Texans are averaging a paltry 19.2 PPG (4th-worst in NFL), despite gaining 365 total YPG (10th in league).
They are subpar both on third downs (34.7%, 24th in NFL) and in the red zone (52% touchdowns, 20th in NFL), but have cut down their turnovers with just six giveaways in six games since QB Case Keenum has taken over. Keenum is completing 54% of his passes for 1,433 yards (7.5 YPA), 8 TD and 3 INT, but he had a rough game against the Jags two weeks ago when he was 18-of-34 for 169 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TD and two sacks taken in a 13-6 loss. Top RB Ben Tate also had a horrible game in that defeat, rushing seven times for just one yard.

However, in Tate's two career games in Jacksonville, he has rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries (5.9 YPC) with two touchdowns. Tate is also coming off a monster performance against New England, rushing for 102 yards (4.6 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Top WR Andre Johnson also struggled against the Jags (two catches for 36 yards), but he caught eight passes (on nine targets) for 121 yards last week, giving him 1,123 yards this season. With TE Owen Daniels still out, TE Garrett Graham will continue to see plenty of passes headed his way, as Graham has garnered 32 targets over the past three games.

Defensively, Houston allows 26.9 PPG (27th in NFL), despite ranking third in the league in total defense (304 YPG) and second in passing defense (188 YPG). The Texans have been gashed in the red zone though (68% touchdowns, 2nd-worst in NFL), and have been unable to generate turnovers on a consistent basis, tallying just nine takeaways for the entire season, including only one in the past three games combined.

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring offense (14.5 PPG), total offense (286 YPG), rushing offense (71 YPG) and red-zone efficiency (37% touchdowns). But they have averaged a respectable 22.0 PPG in their past four contests despite gaining only 284 total YPG.

QB Chad Henne is coming off his first multi-touchdown game of the season, throwing for 195 yards and 2 TD in the victory over the Browns. For the season, he has completed 61.4% of his passes, but has only 2,319 passing yards (211 YPG, 6.5 YPA), 6 TD and 10 INT. His favorite target is WR Cecil Shorts, who caught four fourth-quarter passes in last week's win, capping his day with a 20-yard TD reception in the game's final minute. He also had eight catches for 71 yards in the victory in Houston two weeks ago.

But the real story of that matchup was RB Maurice Jones-Drew who totaled 144 yards from scrimmage and scored the game's only touchdown. He is in the midst of a career-worst season with 3.2 YPC, but has reached the end zone in four straight games. Jones-Drew has also loved facing the Texans in his career, piling up 803 total yards (114.7 YPG) and 8 TD in seven starts against them.

Jacksonville's defense has looked like a new team coming out of its Week 9 bye, especially the run defense which has allowed only 68 rushing YPG on 2.7 YPC in the past four games. This is quite an improvement from the 162 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC allowed in the first eight weeks. However, a lot of this is due to teams choosing to throw all over the Jags, compiling 291 passing YPG in this four-week stretch.

This Jacksonville squad still ranks third-worst in the NFL in scoring defense (29.3 PPG), fourth-worst on third downs (43%), and is tied for 25th in red-zone efficiency (60% touchdowns). The Jags have done a better job recently of taking the football away though, with eight forced turnovers in the past four games.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 5

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting: Texans at Jaguars

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 43)

The Houston Texans' franchise-record losing streak is up to 10 games, and even Thursday's trip to Jacksonville no longer seems like an easy win for the defending AFC South champions. The Texans let one slip away Sunday, falling 34-31 to visiting New England after leading by 10 at halftime and being up by three in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville rallied for a 32-28 win at Cleveland last week, its third win in the last four games after dropping eight straight to start the season.

While the Texans are playing their way into contention for the top pick in next year's draft - they own the league's worst record at 2-10 - the Jaguars' chances of picking first are fading, as they're one of four teams at 3-9. Jacksonville has yet to win in front of its home crowd but has three straight games to try and change that, with Buffalo and Tennessee visiting the next two weeks. "We don't look ahead much, but I said, 'We have a great opportunity with three (home) games in a row,' " Jaguars coach Gus Bradley told the team's website. "It doesn't make it any more important than an away game, but it is special to play at home."

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 60s with a 14 percent chance of rain and winds blowing SE from corner to corner at 5 mph.

LINE: Houston opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to the key number of -3. The total has jumped to 43.5 at some markets.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+6.0) - Jaguars (+6.5) + Home Field (-3.0) = Jaguars -2.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-10, 3-9 ATS): Houston did a lot of things right against the Patriots, including rushing for a franchise-record four touchdowns and scoring TDs on all three of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Case Keenum has played fairly well despite being winless in six starts, passing for 1,433 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and the ground game continues to produce even with Arian Foster on injured reserve following back surgery. Statistically, the Texans should be better than their 2-10 record - they rank 10th in total offense and third in total defense - but a minus-12 turnover margin contributes to their ranking 29th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.

Jacksonville aims for its first three-game winning streak since 2010 as the league's last-ranked offense has shown signs of life recently. Chad Henne has taken over the starting quarterback  job for the remainder of the season and led the Jaguars on an 80-yard drive for the winning score against the Browns. The defense still ranks 30th in scoring and 25th in total yards but turned in a dominant performance in a 13-6 win at Houston two weeks ago.


* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.


1. Jacksonville has recorded eight takeaways in the last four games, matching the total from its first eight contests.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson has 49 career 100-yard receiving games and has caught a pass in 113 consecutive contests.

3. The Jaguars have topped 100 yards rushing in two straight games after failing to do so in their first 10.

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