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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

GamePlan

Cowboys vs. Giants
Play: Under 45

Weather is going to be cold and windy. Look for both teams to establish the ground game. Dallas will make adjustments to stop Victor Cruz and the Giants defense has played much better the last 4 games. Take the under as a free pick.

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Rocky Sheridan

Broncos vs. Patriots
Play: Over 53

In this highly anticipated matchup between what is arguably the Top 2 teams in the NFL this season, Denver and New England will have their high powered offenses on display Sunday Night. My Week #12 Free Play Selection is going OVER the Total in this Match Up. Both teams have some Very Solid Trends to the Over in this match up.

Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in November. Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in Week 12. Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 40-18-1 in Patriots last 59 games on fieldturf. Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 9-2-1 in Broncos last 12 games following a ATS win. Over is 22-5 in Broncos last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 13-3-1 in Broncos last 17 games on field turf. Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games. Over is 15-5-1 in Broncos last 21 vs. AFC.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Rob Vinciletti

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins    
Play: Miami Dolphins +5

The Dolphins have won and covered every meeting in this series. Carolina fits a couple of bounce systems here in this game off their big Monday night home win over the Patriots. We want to play against favorites of 3 or more that won 6 straight games as these teams have failed to cover 14 of 20 times since the early 70/s. The Panthers are 0-8 ats as a non division road favorite off a win and cover. Miami has covered 11 of 12 times as a non division dog of 9.5 or less. Home dogs in non division games off a home dog win have covered 22 of 33 if they are getting less than 5 points. With most of the situations favoring Miami we will look for the Dolphins to at the very least get the spread win. On Sunday end the week big with a Rare 6* 29-0 Power System Play leading a solid card that has 3 Early plays one a 5* Dominator side and the 96% Sunday night Football AFC Showdown match which is rated at 5*. We also have a Perfect NBA Totals systems and NCAAB Which have been hot. Saturday card cashes big again led by Game of the Year winner on Ok. St and 6* Fresno. Jump on and ma

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Jack Jones

New England Patriots +2½

Any time the Patriots are coming off a loss, it’s certainly worth a look to back them. That’s because they are arguably the most well-coached team in the league, and they do not take losing lightly. That is evident by the fact that Bill Belichick is 37-21 against the spread after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of New England. Also, Belichick is 40-20 against the number as an underdog as the coach of the Patriots. New England has won each of its last five games following a loss.

You can bet that Tom Brady and company will come back hungry in this one. Brady and the offense have gotten on track over their past two contests. After throwing for 432 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-31 win at Pittsburgh, Brady completed 29 of 40 passes for 296 yards and a score against arguably the best defense in the league in the Panthers last week. Those are two great defenses he torched, and he should have another big game against a Denver defense that ranks 28th against the pass at 279.1 yards per game.

Brady and New England have simply owned Peyton Manning wherever he has been. Manning is 2-9 all-time on the road against New England, including 2-7 in visits against Brady. Brady has 12 touchdowns and one interception in his last five games against Denver. Manning has thrown five interceptions in his last three games against New England. In last year’s 31-21 win over the Broncos, Brady didn’t have to do too much as the Patriots rushed for 251 yards in the win.

This is a much bigger game for the Patriots than it is for the Broncos. They are fighting to get the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Denver leads them by two games for the top seed. Even if the Broncos lose, they can win next week against the Chiefs and still hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That's why I fully expect New England to play with more of a sense of urgency in this one than the Broncos.

New England is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this season. It is scoring 29.6 points and giving up just 17.6 points, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game at Gillete Stadium. It's one thing for the Patriots to be an underdog on the road, it's another thing to see them as a dog at home. In fact, they have not been a home underdog since 2005, so there is certainly some value here given their track record at home.

New England is 16-5 against the spread in its last 21 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. The Patriots are 20-8 against the number in their last 28 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 6-0 against the number vs. AFC West opponents over the past three seasons. New England is 30-12-1 against the spread in its last 43 games following a loss. The Broncos are 8-18 against the number in their last 26 road games vs. at team with a winning home record. Bet the Patriots Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Dave Price

San Diego Chargers +4.5

Right away, you have to like the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that carry a win percentage of only 25-40% are 95-50 ATS since 1983 if they check in off a road loss. The Chiefs return home where they are 5-0 after losing for the first time this season last week in Denver. While they have taken care of business at Arrowhead, we can't ignore that they are on a 1-8 ATS skid at home when laying 7.0 points or fewer. They have lost by an average score of 20.8 to 15.2 in this situation. The Chiefs have been in this situation four times this season and have just the one cover, a 31-7 win over the Giants as a three-point favorite. They only defeated the Cowboys by one as a three-point favorite, the Texans by one as a 6.5-point favorite and the Browns by six as a seven-point favorite in the other three instances. The Chiefs have had their share of struggles against San Diego. They have lost two straight, four of five and nine of 11 in the series recently. We'll take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Joseph D'Amico

Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals    
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3

The line is 'Zona-3, Total 45. This game opened -1 1/2 and actually hit -1 for a bit but has climbed the past two days. Indy isn't looking as immortal as they did only a month ago. They were one of the best teams in football at 1st quarter scoring and now over their L3 games, they have been outscored, 35-0 in the opening 15 minutes. Arizona has rattled off 3 straight wins, posting 27 PPG in each. If Indy falls behind, the speedy and crafty Cardinals secondary can contain Luck. Not to mention that Arizona HC, Bruce Arians was the Colts OC last season. Now as long as Andrew Luck is playing, the Colts have a shot but the Cards have 22 takeaways and are playing at home. I lean towards Arizona here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cowboys / Giants Over 44.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants have not been overly impressive in winning four straight games but following their 0-6 start the G-men find themselves still in contention in the weak NFC East. Dallas is 5-5 and just a half game behind Division leader Philly. These teams opened the season with Dallas winning a wild 36-31 shootout in which the Giants committed 6 turnovers yet still were in position to win in the final minutes. High scoring games have been the norm in this series. Since 2009 7 of 9 meetings have produced at least 53 total points. Both teams have proven quarterbacks in Tony Romo and Eli Manning with big play receivers and vulnerable defenses.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Charlie Scott

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars   

Some old school handicapping theory still apply and Double Digit Dogs in the NFL is 1 of them. Can't trust the Texans in this role. While JAX doesn't have many wins, they haven't quit yet and for the most part still play hard for their Coach, the same can't be said for the Texans !

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Iowa +5 over MarylandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game will be played at the University of the Virgin Islands Sports and Fitness Center. We’re tempted to play the Panthers straight up because they have just as good a chance of winning as the Terps but the five points being offered are too juicy to pass up. Northern Iowa has consistently been one of the better programs in the MVC, reaching at least some form of postseason tournament every season since 2009. They are once again contenders to win the Missouri Valley but a slow start has them underpriced here. The Panthers are just 2-2 with losses against Ohio and George Mason. However, one thing that hasn’t changed is that NIU still plays outstanding defense. The Panthers get solid guard play from junior Deon Mitchell and they have a strong inside presence in junior forward, Seth Tuttle.
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The Terrapins must overcome several key losses from last season with none being more important than lottery pick center Alex Len. Then there’s the issue of point guard play or lack thereof. Maryland has asked Dez Wells to switch to point guard and it’s not working out. Wells has openly stated he’s not comfortable and looked completely out of place defensively in a recent home loss to Oklahoma State. In that game, Maryland lost at home and allowed 90 points against. Maryland opened the year with a strong game against #18 UConn in which they lost by a single point but that was a case of the Huskies playing poorly as oppose to the Terps playing great. Maryland’s two wins this season in four tries came against Marist and Abilene Christian. The Terps failed to score more than 68 points against either one of those two dregs. Early season injuries have forced the Terps into doing things they did not anticipate having to adjust to this early in the season. Maryland is a team that is scrambling right now and a well-coached and disciplined team like the Panthers figure to take full advantage. Don’t be afraid to play the Panthers outright in this one but we’ll endorse taking the points. 
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Pass NBA & NHLFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

DAVE COKIN
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
PLAY: GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5
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Aaron Rodgers won’t win the NFL version of the MVP Award this season. But the truth about just how important he is to the Green Bay Packers is pretty obvious right about now. With Rodgers in the lineup, the Packers are one the better teams in the league. Without him, they’re barely average.
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The bad news for the Packers is that they’re still without Rodgers, and if he’s not back soon, Green Bay will be putting away the equipment at the end of the regular season. The good news is that today’s game is one the Packers can and should win regardless of who’s under center.
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Minnesota is going nowhere this season, so it’s likely that they will be treating this game with their rivals as their own kind of playoff game. But the Vikings are just not very good, and while they’re going to show some fight today, I’m not sold they can win this contest.
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This is a must win game for Green Bay. While it’s conceivable they could lost and still be only one game out of the division lead, they would still be trailing two teams and would also be in less than ideal shape for a wild card. The simply cannot afford to lose to one of the league’s weakest entries.
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The Vikings sitting at 2-8 is no fluke. They’re owners of the fourth worst point differential in the league. Adrian Peterson is their offense, and he’s laboring through injuries and the burden of being the only real playmaker on this squad. Add that to the fact that Minnesota has surrendered more points than any team in the league, and the bad bottom line is easy to comprehend.
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The task for emergency starting Packers QB Scott Tolzien is simple enough. Don’t screw up the game, keep it simple and stop throwing the ball to the wrong team. That’s easier said than done for a very inexperienced starter whose credentials are questionable. But the Vikings are weak enough defensively so that even Tolzien should be able to function at a reasonable level today.
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From a metrics standpoint, this game shapes up as pretty close with Rodgers still absent. But this is also about taking a team that knows how to win football games against one that seemingly can’t do so this season. I’m siding with the Packers to notch the vital win and cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis / Arizona Over 44FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fourteen of the last 15 non-conference games in the NFL have gone over the total and for the season non-conference games have gone over at an alarming rate of 76% (38-12). The Colts have gone over the total in four straight games and the Arizona offense is also clicking, scoring 20 points or more in seven straight games and 27 or more in each of their last four games. Let’s follow all of these compelling trends and call for a high-scoring affair in the desert.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Bob Balfe

Chicago Bears +1.5

The Rams went into Indy and got a big win so now people want to back them as favorites? The Colts were dealing with major issues at receiver. The Bears have the opposite problem. This team had 6'5 guys all across the board that are matchup nightmares for smaller cornerbacks. Josh McCown has found his game and is a very capable backup. The Bears will win this game by being too physical. Take Chicago.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Sam Martin

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars

The linesmakers haven't learned their lesson yet - installing Houston as a big 10-point home favorite despite the Texans already losing outright as big home favorites of 9.5 points (vs. St. Louis) and 10.5 points (vs. Oakland last week). Those two losses both came in the midst of this current eight-game losing streak, and while Houston very well may win this game outright, we don't believe they can win this game by double-digits.

Jacksonville has been far more competitive the past few weeks, even scoring an outright win at Tennessee as a big 11.5-point underdog. And while there's not much statistically to be happy about if you are a Jags fan, they are getting a massive amount of points here against a Texans team that seems to find new ways to shoot themselves in the foot each week. Houston just 2-8 against the spread this season including a perfect 0-5 ATS here at home, and they are unworthy of laying this big number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Joe Gavazzi

Kansas City -3½

It’s not very often that you find a 9-1 SU team receiving so little love, yet that is exactly what happened after the Chiefs lost to the first winning team they faced 27-17. With the rematch scheduled for next week, popular opinion has sided with a San Diego team has owned the Chiefs of late, winning 9/11 recent meetings. But the KC victories have never been pretty this season; they are doing it with a defense that allows just 14 PPG, and a team that takes care of the football behind QB Smith, leading to a +15 net TO margin, easily the best in the NFL. Chargers are in a tough situation, making their 6th trip in 12 weeks of at least two hours east. This, following an Eastern Time zone game in Miami. It has started to show, as they enter today on an 0-3 SU ATS slide, dropping to 4-6 SU. Last week, they outrushed Miami 154-104, were even in the TOs, but still lost the game. This is exactly the type of team on whom the Chiefs have been getting fat all season long. Did I mention that the Chargers’ 6.7 defensive yards per play remains the worst in the NFL? Really? A 9-1 SU team as only 4 point home favorite against a 4-6 SU visitor?


Arizona -1

The Colts are the other team who played the previous Thursday night, a 12-8 ATS edge. But that victory combined with the Tennessee loss has opened up a 3 game lead in the division for the Colts. At this point in the season, that has historically led to underperformance from the division leading team. There's no doubt the Colts have played their best away from home; for the year, they are 4-1 ATS covering by 48 net points, with a +4 net turnover margin. First year Arizona HC Arians, last year's Indy head coach, knows this team well. Arizona is a bit of a surprise team this season on runs of 5-2 and 3-0 SU, with only recent losses to San Francisco and Seattle. Look for them to carry the momentum of that 3 game winning streak after they outgained the Jags last week 416-274, combining that yardage edge with +2 net TOs for a 27-14 victory. Is Arizona this year's team of destiny?

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Brady Kannon

Miami +4.5

I like this Carolina Panthers team and Cam Newton has been great to watch.  They could be the team that nobody wants to face come playoff time.. but now riding a 6-game winning streak with huge victories most recently over The 49'ers and The Patriots, we feel there is some definite line value in favor of the underdog today. Couple this with the fact that Miami is now in its 3rd game since the Incognito mess.. time heals all wounds and our reports say that this locker room is on board again.. as evidenced by an outright win as an underdog last week over The Chargers.  The Dolphins are 11-and-1 ATS as non division underdogs when getting less than 10-points. The Panthers are 0-and-8 SUATS as non division road favorites off of a SUATS win.  With some momentum brewing in South Beach and their spirits on the rise going against what looks to be a team ready for a letdown, we're taking the points with The Dolphins today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Steve Merril

Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Pick: Over

Indianapolis is 4-0 to the Over their last four games and Arizona is 4-1 to the Over their last five games.  That’s a combined 8-1 to the Over for these teams in their last nine games.  We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis bounced back with a win at Tennessee after getting embarrassed by 30 points (38-8) at home to the Rams.  The Colts’ offense has scored 27 points or more in three of their last four games.  Indianapolis has also gone Over the total in four straight games and we expect another high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Arizona.  The Colts’ offense has been strong on the road this season as they are averaging 26 points per game away from home; they’ve scored 27 points or more in four of their five road games.  Arizona’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they are taking a major step-up here after facing the weak offenses of the Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars over the last three games.

Arizona’s offense is in good current form right now.  The Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in six consecutive games; 27 points in each of their last three games.  QB Carson Palmer has completed 71.8% (79 of his last 110 passes) for 952 yards on an incredible 8.7 yards per pass attempt with a 7/2 TD/INT ratio.  The Cardinals’ offense will have continued success against a weak Indianapolis defense that allows 5.8 yards per play (#25) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (#27).  This game also has an interesting dynamic to it with Arizona HC Bruce Arians facing the Colts, a team he led to the playoffs last season while HC Chuck Pagano was sick.  Indianapolis is 4-0 to the Over their last four games and Arizona is 4-1 to the Over their last five games.  That’s a combined 8-1 to the Over for these teams in their last nine games.  We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

John Ryan

Chargers at Chiefs
Prediction: Over

The simulator shows a high probability that 45 or more points will be scored in this game. Chargers are coming off a 20-16 loss to Miami in a game they were favored by three points. At 4-6, this is a 'must win' situation so I fully expect the Charger offense to be opened up and with a scheme designed to attack the KC defense. KC matched a season low scoring 17 points in their 27-17 loss at Denver last week. This team may be 9-1, but they have defeated only one team with a winning record based on the current standings. Only Dallas at 5-5 is a team they defeated 17-16 in Week 2 and 6-5 Philadelphia 26-16 in Week 3. Note too that these two teams are in the NFC East, which is the weakest division in the NFL. Chargers are 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 'OVER' mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play 'OVER' with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) that is off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' and with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game. Of the 29 winning plays, 21 of them went 'over' by 7 or more points. Take the 'OVER'.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Freddy Wills

Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals    
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3

It's Bruce Arians turn to make a statement after being the interim coach for the Colts last year. The Colts are not the same team as last year and they are going to have a tough time on the road down the stretch. If the Colts get behind again today like they have in the past they won't be coming back. That's exactly what I'm predicting will happen to the Colts who seem to step up against the elite and play poorly against the middle of the road teams. The Cardinals secondary is elite and love to turn opponents over. Andrew Luck is going to have to pass to win this game in a come back effort that just won't happen in the desert.

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Rickie Robbins

Panthers vs. Dolphins
Play: Under 41

The Carolina Panthers are on a roll right now, and Carolina will head to Miami on Sunday in hopes of avoiding the always dreaded trap game.

The Miami Dolphins started off the season hot, but since the Dolphins have come back down a bit. Miami has dropped three out of their last five games, including a loss last week to the San Diego Chargers, in Miami 20-16. The Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt in the AFC, but it’s tight, so at this point every game for Miami matters. The Dolphins have a solid defense, and one of the better young quarterbacks in the game in Ryan Tannehill, but Miami is struggling putting it all together right now. One area the Dolphins really do need to improve upon is their ground game. Miami is currently averaging just 88.7 yards per game, and that is putting way too much pressure on their signal caller and the passing attack. That being the case, the Panthers are excellent against the run, so this week might be tough sledding for them.

The Carolina Panthers head to Miami on Sunday, and right now the Panthers have to be feeling invincible. Carolina has won six in a row heading into Sunday’s match up with the Dolphins, including wins over the Niners and the Patriots, each in the past two weeks. Cam Newton is really starting to come into his own in this league. What’s impressive about that is that Newton is not just running the spread attack he was when he first got to Carolina, but the Panthers are running a much more conventional NFL offense right now, and Newton is shining in it. One thing helping Newton and the passing game out, is their strong running attack. The Panthers are ranked 10th in the league currently, averaging 125.3 yards per game on the ground. That, combined with their stifling defense, and the Panthers are looking to be a real tough out late in the season.

The Carolina Panthers are a very solid 7-3 against the spread on the year, and when playing as a favorite, the Panthers are doing well, going 4-2 ATS on the season. On the road, the Panthers are also solid, going 3-2 ATS.

The Miami Dolphins are 5-5 against the spread on the year, and when playing as an underdog, the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS. Miami is also in the black when playing at home, going 3-2 against the spread this season.

My play here is going to be on the under. I am tempted to take the Dolphins as this looks to be a bad spot for the Panthers, but I just can’t trust this Miami team.

Miami will have trouble putting points on the board against this defense, and the Dolphins are solid defensively in their own right which should contain this Panthers offense, especially considering they are on a short week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 24

Red Dog Sports

North Carolina vs. Louisville    
Play: North Carolina +10

Louisville won the national title last year. They return several players like Russ Smith and Luke Hancock. UNC is without PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald but do have Marcus Paige, who made 6 3-pointers yesterday and McAdoo inside as well as Brice Johnson who scored double digits yesterday. There will be less pressure on the Tar Heels being underdogs in this game being played at the Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, Ct.

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