Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

Wunderdog

Wisconsin -26.5

The Wisconsin Badgers always seem to find themselves at or near the top of the Big-10 year after year. They have lost just twice on the season, and one loss was as a result of a bad call vs. Arizona State. And, they lost by just 7 points to Ohio State, a team that hasn't lost a game in two years. Indiana is all about offense, and they get plenty of it. But the defense simply isn't built for getting stops. Despite the gaudy numbers on offense, Indiana is still a sub-.500 team, and may not even become Bowl eligible. Indiana has given up 40+ points in five games this season, and there is a good chance that Wisconsin puts up a lot more than that here. Indiana's game simply does not travel well vs. good teams, as they are 0-5 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record. They are also just 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. teams like Wisconsin that average 31+ points per game. The Badgers are at their best at home vs. a losing team where they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26, and have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series. Back the Badgers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

ASA

Texas Tech at Baylor
Play: Baylor

We had a strong feeling Texas Tech was vastly over rated and we have been proven correct over the last few weeks. The Raiders came into their October 26th game @ Oklahoma with a perfect 7-0 record. We sided with OU in that game and picked up a nice cover as Tech dropped their first game of the season. We stayed away their next two games as Tech came back home. We should have stuck to our original analysis and continued to fade the Raiders. They proceeded to get smoked at home as a favorite by both Oklahoma State and Kansas State. They lost to Okie State by 18 and to KSU by 23. The Red Raider defense allowed 52 and 49 points in those two games and now face a Baylor team that averages 61 PPG and has reached 70+ four times! Uh oh. While many aren’t yet on board with Baylor because of their schedule, they simply continue to win and win big. Their most recent tilt was against pretty solid Oklahoma team and the Bears destroyed them by a final of 41-12. In their 5 Big 12 games, Baylor has outgained their opponents by a whopping 1,700 yards combined! They have beaten their Big 12 opponents by an average score of 56-20. The Bear offense gets a lot of headlines, however their defense has been solid holding three straight opponents to 14 points or less. This team is also in the hunt for the BCS Championship game so they need style points. If the get a chance to run it up, they will. Texas Tech is moving in the opposite direction as we stated. They’ve lost 3 games in a row and head coach Kliff Kingsbury has been jumping back and forth between QB’s, both freshman (Davis Webb & Baker Mayfield). Both look like they’re hitting the freshman wall. Tech’s defense is also tiring. They have allowed 35 or more points in four of their last five games. Tech’s fast paced offense (average 88 plays per game) plays right into Baylor’s hands. Simply gives the Bears more opportunities to score points. This one gets ugly as the Bears continue their roll.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

Sean Michaels

Time for Oregon (-28) to get off the canvas following their KO at the hands of Stanford two Thursdays ago. And a visit from slumping and injury-riddled Utah is just what the doctor ordered for the Ducks' recovery.<br /><br />

The Utes arrive in Eugene minus starting quarter Travis Wilson, who is out with a concussion. That means former walk-on Adam Schulz, who has thrown 45 passes this season, takes the helm for a team that's lost three in a row entering the contest. A straight-up loss today is a foregone conclusion. A failure to cover can be taken to the bank.

I know Utah beat Stanford and Stanford beat Oregon, but this isn't algebra we're doing here. The only math that matters is Oregon's 51-point per game average on the season. The Ducks have scorched Tennessee for 59 points, Cal for 55, Washington State for 62 and UCLA for 42 in four previous home games.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota might still be bothered by the knee injury that clearly hindered his performance at Stanford, but Oregon still has too much speed and quality depth at running back for Utah to contend with today. And I can't see a back-up quarterback riddling an Oregon pass defense ranked # 31 in the country.

Oregon has covered 14 of its last 15 regular season games when the opponent is anyone other than Stanford so laying the points makes mathematical sense to me.

3♦ OREGON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Memphis/ South Florida Under 40.5: Two very futile offenses will hook up in Florida tonight. The Memphis Tigers come in ranked 109th in total offense and 100th in passing offense, while scoring just 20.4 ppg, which is 110th in the nation. As bad as that is, South Florida is even worse, as they rank 114th or worse in rushing, passing and total offense, while scoring just 15.4 ppg on the year, which is 120th in the nation. Memphis has scored just 15 ppg on the road this year, while the Bulls have put up just 16.2 ppg at home. The Bulls have had some issues on defense, but they have been torched mostly by high scoring teams so their ppg allowed looks worse than it should be and they actually come in 44th in total defense in the nation. They held a weak UConn offense to just 10 points and should have similar success vs this offense. The Tiger defense has played very well this year, ranking 17th overall, while allowing just 21.9 ppg, which is 24th in the land. Memphis has played just 2 road games this year and allowed high powered Houston just 25 points and Middle Tennessee just 17 points. they should have little touble keeping USF under wraps here. Now for a few trends... The Tigers are 10-1 Under in their last 12 games following a SU win and 25-9 Under in their last 34 games following a spread win, while the Bulls are 8-1 to the Under at home vs a team with a losing road record. This game will struggle to get to even 35, let alone 41.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Houston +17 over LOUISVILLE: Wow the Cougars getting over 2 TD's in this one. I can't see it. The Cougars struggled last week on offense, but they still have the offense to match the Cardinals point for point in this one. Louisville hasn't looked all that sharp of late and that was vs not so great teams. Since the 49-7 win vs Ohio to open the season, the Cardinals have faced just 2 winning teams and struggled mightily with Rutgers and lost to UCF. They also didn't look sharp vs Kentucky, Temple and UConn in other games. Louisville does have the 2nd ranked defense in the nation, but the highest scoring offense they have faced as UCF (34th) and they allowed 38 points in that game. The 2nd highest scoring team is Rutgers (54th) and after them they haven't faced a scoring offense that has been ranked higher than 74th. Houston will be able to score on this team and they should be able to keep this game close just like they did last week vs UCF.

ARIZONA -11 over Washington State: I sense that the Cougars are starting to run out of gas. They come in on an 0-3 run and have been outscored by 28.7 ppg in the 3 games, plus in their last 4 Pac-12 losses they have been outscored by 24 points or more in each loss. The defense has been horrendous for this team of late, allowing a whopping 624.7 ypg and 56.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Since they allowed just 7 points in the win over USC, they have now allowed 49.2 ppg in their last 5 Pac-12 games. That is not good for them as they will now take on an Arizona squad that is on fire offensively, averaging 514.4 ypg and 34.3 ppg in their last 3 games, while also averaging 33.5 ppg at home this year.   On the other side the Cougars are 7th in the nation in passing, but Arizona comes in 29th vs the pass. The Cougars just don't stack up well in this game, especially with their defense so bad. The Arizona ground game that is 12th in the nation will wear out this Washington State defense that is 85th vs the run on the way to winning the game by 17 points or more.

Georgia/ Auburn Over 64.5:  This one should be all kinds of fun. The Georgia defense has looked better of late, but their last 2 games were vs an FCS foe and offensively challenged Florida. Take out the Florida game and Georgia has allowed 3 or more points to each SEC team they faced, plus they also allowed 38 points to Clemson. THis is still a bad defense and they won't look a whole lot better today vs an Auburn offense that has put up 48.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 38.3 ppg at home on the year. This offense is very strong. Speaking of that, the Georgia offense is strong as well as they come in averaging 35.6 ppg on the year and should be able to put up plenty of points of their own vs an Auburn defense that allowed 41to Texas A&M and 35 to LSU, which are by far the two best offenses they have faced this year. I look for both teams to put up at least 35 points each in this one.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Oregon -28 Over Utah: Oregon is an angry team, after last week's loss and I feel they will take it out big time on Utah here. The Ducks have outscored teams by 39.8 ppg, with all but one of their wins being 28 points or more. Utah will just be in the wrong place at the wrong time, even if Mariotta isn't 100%.

North Carolina Pk Over PITTSBURGH:  The Heels have been playing better of late, as they have won 3 in a row, outscoring their foes by 21 ppg in the stretch. Pittsburgh is off and emotional win vs Notre Dame and while they are 4-1 at home and have that big win over ND here they still haven't played all that well at home, getting blasted by FSU, beating Virginia by just 11 and beating ODU by that same number as well. THis game is right there for North Carolina to take.

WISCONSIN -26 over Indiana: The Hoosiers are an improved team this year, but their defense still sucks and they have been outscored by 54.3 ppg in the last 3 in this series and they have lost 5 of the last 6 between these two by at least 40 points. Wisconsin has a defense that can slow this team down as they have allowed 17 or less in 3 of their last 4 games, while their offense will score early and often on an Indiana team that has allowed 45.5 ppg in their last 4 games and 52.5 ppg on the road this year. Wisconsin by at least 30 in this one.   

1 UNIT PLAYS

Kentucky/ Vanderbilt Over 53: The Vanderbilt defense is a shell of its self from last year as they have allowed 10 ppg more than 2012's squad. The will be facing a a Kentucky offense that is not that strong, but has looked better with Whitlow at the helm. They have averaged 29 ppg in their last 3 games. The Vanderbilt offense has been solid all year long as they have averaged 32.3 ppg. The just put up 34 points on a tough Florida defense and have scored 24 or more in every game this year. They should get plenty of points in this one vs a Kentucky squad that has allowed 35 points or more in each of their last 4 SEC games. Vandy should be good for at least 35 here, while I look for the Cats to grab about 21 of their own.

Louisiana Tech +15.5 over RICE: I think the Bulldogs have a shot at keeping this one close. Their defense is playing very well right now, while their offense is waking up. Rice did beat up on some weak teams during their last 6 games, but they did struggle in a win over UTSA and they did lose vs North Texas, which are the best two teams they have played in that stretch. This one will be decided by a TD or less.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

OC Dooley

Georgia +3

One can call this a law-of-averages wager as visiting Georgia has so far been a disaster (1-7 against the spread) where it counts primarily due to a rash of injuries.  To make a long story short I have found out that Georgia takes the field this afternoon at the HEALTHIEST point that the squad has seen in FIVE full weeks.  Certainly the Bulldogs have been healthy in this series with Auburn which is the longest running rivalry in the deep south.  In the past two years Georgia has squashed Auburn by a combined 83-to-7 score so confidence will not be lacking. Of course Auburn (9-1) has completely turned around last year’s 3-9 debacle in part due the arrival of head coach Gus Malzahn who was the Tigers offensive coordinator the year the school won the national championship.  But arguably it is a tall order for Auburn to be laying this many points against a talented opponent who technically still has a shot at participating in the SEC Championship game.  In the past three years when the team comes off a 325+ passing yards effort Georgia is UNDEFEATED (6-0 against the spread) where it counts

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

Scott Gramling

Florida at South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -12

The Gators are just in shambles right now with four straight defeats, none more humiliating than getting doubled up at home against Vanderbilt last week when they managed to rush for a pathetic 39 yards on 34 carries. In the past five seasons in college football, excellent rushing teams (4.8+ YPC) facing poor rushing teams (3.0 to 3.5 YPC) in conference games are a whopping 86-36 ATS (71%). With Gators QB Tyler Murphy doubtful for this game, the air attack will also struggle to gain yards on a South Carolina passing defense that has played very well in the past four games (173 YPG, 5.9 YPA allowed). The 'Cocks offense is also playing much better, averaging 33.4 PPG and 459 total YPG in its seven SEC games this season. Will Muschamp is 2-9 ATS following an SU loss in his tenure at Florida and he does not have enough healthy players to keep this game close. South Carolina wins this by at least three touchdowns here.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

STATFOX BRIAN

OKLAHOMA ST. AT TEXAS
PLAY: OKLAHOMA ST -3

Not only does Texas have to stick with unimpressive backup QB Case McCoy with top QB David Ash out indefinitely with a concussion, but now the school will be without top RB Johnathan Gray who tore his Achilles' last week. The Longhorns have also suffered two huge losses on defense in LB Jordan Hicks (Achilles') and now DT Chris Whaley (knee), which doesn't bode well facing an Oklahoma State team that has piled up 50.7 PPG in its past three games. This offensive explosion began with a 31-point win at Iowa State, the same team Texas beat by 1 point after a bogus non-fumble call extended the game-winning drive. These schools have played 13 common opponents in the past two seasons with OSU going 8-5 ATS and Texas going 4-8-1 ATS. Also, the Cowboys under Mike Gundy are 49-21 ATS (70%) when favored, and 17-6 ATS (74%) after scoring at least 37 points in 2+ straight games, averaging 44.2 PPG in these instances. Oklahoma State is 18-7 SU (72%) in its past 25 road games, and will also leave Austin with a 10-point win on Saturday. PLAY ON: Oklahoma St.

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