Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Bill Biles

Falcons/Panthers Over 44

The Panthers have scored over 30 points in 3 straight games, and Matt Ryan will want to bounce back after a poor performance. Look for both teams to score in the high 20's and this game will go over the posted total.

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Chip Chirimbes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots    
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The 2-5 Pittsburgh Steelers consider this game a “must win” if they aer giving themselves a chance to make the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger is leading the 27th ranked scoring offense as they continue to lose offensive players because of injury. The Patriots offense hasn't been all that hot either but they have Tom Brady and although many have been critical of his play this season the club is still 6-2 and atop of the AFC East. With both club struggling to score I can see this one coming down to the final gun. Take the points with PITTSBURGH!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Alex Smart

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers    
Play: Atlanta Falcons +7½

Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan Tight end Tony Gonzalez and RB Steven Jackson along with the expected return of Roddy White will have this team primed to perform in a big way this Sunday. Alot is being made of the Atlanta injuries and the superiority of Carolina and their stud pivot Cam Newton , with very little being said, about the tenaciousness of the talent left on the field for the Falcons. Im taking a contrarian look at this tilt and backing the away side plus the points. The Falcons are 11-0-1 ATS L/12 as a road dog after a loss on the road

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Red Dog Sports

Dallas Stars vs. Ottawa Senators    
Play: Dallas Stars +122

Take Dallas +122 as a value play. The Ottawa Senators have performed poorly after starting on the road and returning home. They are the top underachievers so far in the NHL after a nice run in the playoffs last year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Steve Janus

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders    
Play: Oakland Raiders -2½

Even though oddsmakers listed the Steelers as just a 2.5-point favorite last week, few believed the Raiders were capable of beating Pittsburgh. This team is better than they get credit for and with the way the Eagles are struggling right now, it certainly feels like there is some value with Oakland laying less than a field goal at home. The Raiders are 3-1 at the Coliseum and the only loss came when Pryor was sidelined with an injury.

That lone loss came against the Redskins, which is also the only game they have came up short against a team with a losing record. Their other three losses have come against three of the best teams in the AFC in Denver, Indianapolis and Kansas City. The Raiders are an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, while the Eagles are a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs a team with a losing record. You have to wonder if Philadelphia wouldn’t be a much bigger dog, had they not had that huge performance on Monday Night Football against the Redskins in Week 1.

The Eagles have found themselves in a lot of tight spreads over the last two seasons and more times than not have failed to produce. Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when they are listed anywhere from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog.

Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when they are listed anywhere from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog.

It’s scary to think just how good the Raiders would be if they could play a complete game. Oakland has outscored opponents 59-20 in the first half of their last four games combined, only to be outscored 10-63 in the second half. Sooner or later they are going to put together a complete performance and I believe this is a great spot to take a chance that it will happen.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

King CreoleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ravens / Browns Under 41.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, my Dog Speedee will be on a Browns 'UNDER' for the second week in a row. He won't let a FG with 17 seconds left scare him away from this one. After all... this Cleveland / Baltimore AFC NORTH series has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 6 meetings, with an average of just 32.5 combined PPG.
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The road favorite Ravens come in off their Bye Week. And that sets up two UNDER-whelming patterns
(1) 0-7 O/U since 2008: All DIVISION road favorites of > 1 pt playing after their BYE WEEK (Balt).
(2) 1-8 O/U since 2001: All road teams with REST after a SUATS division loss (Balt lost to Pitt two weeks ago).
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Neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts. With their 'gacho' (messed up) QB situation, the Browns havs scored 17, 13, and 17 in their last three. The 'run-heavy' Ravens (30 rushes per game last 3) have scored 16 and 17 in their last two games.
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1-8 O/U since 1997: All DIVISION home dogs when BOTH teams scored 17 < pts in EACH of their last two games (Clev / Balt) when the OU line is 35 > points.
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BALTIMORE: 0-4 O/U aft Bye... 1-7 O/U as div RF's... 1-5 O/U bef Cin.
CLEVELAND: 0-4 O/U vs opp off Bye... 1-5 O/U as div HD's > 1 pt. If you're looking for a LATE-Kickoff 'Over', it won't be in this game.

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San Diego Chargers vs. Washington RedskinsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego travels east off the bye to take on the Redskins, whose season is on the line in this game. 2-5 usually means your season is already cooked, but the NFC East could be won with 8 wins this season. The Chargers have been a big surprise this season, mainly riding a potent passing game, 8.3 ypa, and converting 49% on 3rd down. This has covered up a poor defense that is giving up 4.8 ypc and close to 8.0 ypa. Look for Washington to control the tempo of the game with its running attack at 5.0 ypc to help cover up its struggling pass defense. Despite its struggles this season, the Redskins have surprisingly been the more effective team in the red zone. Look for Washington to salvage its season, at least for a week.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina PanthersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta is 2-5 and this is pretty much it for them if they drop to 2-6, so we should see their best today for this divisional game vs Carolina. Atlanta will likely give the Panthers a heavy dose of S. Jackson here and should at the very least stay within the nu,ber. Carolina has beat up on softies the last 3 weeks putting 30+ points in 3 straight. Atlanta has won 7 of 9 in November games and road teams in November that are off a road loss have covered 31 of 39 times the last few seasons. Carolina is 0-5 ats at home off a division win and 1-6 to the spread vs an opponent off a loss of 10 or more. Cam Newton is 2-14 straight up in games decided by 7 or less points. The Falcons are 8-0 ats as dogs off a loss. Coach Smith for Atlanta is 11-0 ats off a loss of 10 or more. Were on the Dirty Birds today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Will Rogers

Philadelphia vs. Oakland
Pick: Under

"The Coach" went 4-1 Saturday in NCAAF, increasing his BLAZING Football Run to 11-2 since Monday (9-1 s/ Thurs)! A master of exploiting situations.

Join Rogers on Sunday for some NFL as he SWEPT BOTH his Monday Night (Rams & 1st Half Under) & Thurs Night (1H Side & Total) plays!


Surely first year head coach Chip Kelly must be on the hot seat in Philadelphia, as this supposed "offensive guru" has seen his team lose consecutive home games managing a combined 10 points. They are on the road in Oakland Sunday, taking on a Raiders team that is playing with confidence in recent weeks.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: The Quarterbacks - Nick Foles looked terrible in his last appearance, throwing for just 80 yards on 11-for-39 passing in a 17-3 loss to the Cowboys. Terrelle Pryor doesn't often air it out, but poses a dual threat with his legs.

2: Defense - The Raiders offense leans heavily on it's running game, but the Eagles have been tough defending the run, allowing opponents fewer than 100 yards per game. The Raiders have been solid against the run and the pass, and they're allowing just 17 point per game at home this season.

3: X-Factor - The Raiders have seen the total go under in six of their last seven, and they've played the Eagles three times since 2000, with all three meetings going below the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Bruce Marshall

New Orleans vs. N.Y. Jets
Pick: N.Y. Jets

Tabloids in the tri-state have been hyping the coaching battle between the Ryan brothers like it’s the next Wrestlemania. But while N.Y. has exhibited bipolar tendencies this season with rookie QB Geno Smith, the Jets have also been formful, yet to lose SU or fail to cover a spread in two games running.  The New Orleans pattern has been pretty well-defined, too, shading Saints at home but fading them on the road (where they are 1-2 SU).  At their best, Jets have been able to establish Chris Ivory and the infantry to take some pressure off Geno, while Rex’s defensive pressure up the middle unnerved Tom Brady two weeks ago and could do the same to Drew Brees.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jeff Alexander

Baltimore Ravens -2

Motivated by two straight narrow defeats and having had a bye week to prepare, the defending Super Bowl champs will be ready to bounce back strong against a Cleveland team it has owned. With a win and cover in the season's first meeting, the Ravens improved to 11-0 in their last 11 against the Browns. These victories have come by an average of 12.5 points with each coming by at least 6. These two have met five times in Cleveland during this stretch with the Ravens winning those by an average of 12.0 points. The Ravens have gone 8-3 ATS during this span, including 5-0 ATS in Cleveland. Bet Baltimore.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Joseph D'Amico

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks    
Play: Seattle Seahawks -14½

Just the facts, guys. The 0-7 Bucs are crushing the bettors at 1-6 ATS The entire organization is in tatters. They have managed to cover just one game this year and that was by 1 single point. The offense rushes for 93.6 YPG, passes for 204.1 YPG, and ranks 31st in both Total Yards (297.7) and Points Scored (14.3). QB, Mike Glennon has only played 4 games with a 58.6% CR, and a PR of 78.0. Outside of WR, Vincent Jackson, Glennon has no one else to check off to. With Doug Martin out, the ground game is a joke with the next leading rusher, Mike Jones gathering stats of 96 Total Yards Rushing on 26 carries, and 0 TDs. TB has to deal with the noisy Century Link Stadium and the Seattle rowdy fans. Let's face it, the Bucs have allowed their L3 foes to score 31 points apiece. How will they crack the NFL's 2nd best defense in Total Yards Allowed, 3rd vs. the pass, and 3rd in Points Scored, yielding a mere 15.6 PPG, and holding 11 of their L16 foes to 17 or less points. Seattle comes off their first lack-luster performance in the MNF win over St. Louis. At home, the 'Hawks are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, and are outscoring visitors by a combined 94-33. Seattle's offense is posting 25.6 PPG with workhorse, Marshawn Lynch leading the 4th ranked running team with 601 yards on the ground and 6 scores. Add Russell Wilson's 61% CR, 1628 YP, 13/4 TD/INT, and oh yeah…another 339 YR. He has a slew of capable pass-catchers. McDonald, Clemons, Avril, and Bennett lead a sack machine on "D". No matter what QB is at the helm for TB, it's going to be a long and painful day. Seattle is 21-8 ATS their L29 games vs. the NFC, 34-16-1 ATS their L51 home games, and 6-1 ATS their L7 following an ATS loss. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. the NFC, 1-4 ATS their L5 road games, and 0-4 ATS their L4 games played following an ATS loss. Take Seattle.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Dave Price

Buffalo Bills +4

Recent history suggests this is a great spot to back the Buffalo Bills. Plus, the Bills have given Kansas City fits. The Bills took it on the chin at New Orleans last Sunday, but they are on an 8-0 ATS run following a road loss, winning by an average score of 26.6 to 19.8 in this situation. They are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home following one or more consecutive losses, winning by an average of 8.4 points in this situation. The Bills are 5-1 in their last six against Kansas City with the five wins coming by an average of 18.4 points and the loss came by only three points in OT at Kansas City. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in these meetings. Buffalo is also 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five home games against the Chiefs, winning these by 18.2 points on average. At 8-0, the Chiefs have a big target on their back. Don't be surprised if the Bills knock it off. Take Buffalo and the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jim Feist

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves have jumped out to an early 2-0 start to the season after beating Orlando in OT in their first game and then beating Oklahoma City at home in game 2, 100-81. The Wolves are led by Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. Now we'll see how the Wolves play away from home as they travel to the Big Apple to take on the Knicks. New York is still looking for that first win after starting the season 0-2. So far the offense has been absent for the Knicks, scoring 83 in their season opening at home against the Bucks and then 81 at Chicago. The Bucks have had success at New York, covering eight of the last 11 meetings. Don't expect a lot of points in this one as the last five in New York have gone UNDER with the total eclipsing 186 total points just one time. Until I see something better out of the Knicks I'm going to stick with the points and the visitor in this one. Anything over four points with the Wolves is fine with me.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Cleveland/ Baltimore Under 41.5: Hard to see allot of points being scored here. the Cleveland offense did look better last week with Jason Campbell running the show, but they still put up just 17 points in the game vs a tough KC defense. The Browns have now scored just 18.5 ppg on the year, including just 15.7 ppg in their last 3 and earlier in the year vs this Baltimore defense they were able to muster just 6 points and 259 yards of offense. Speaking of that Baltimore defense, they have been playing very well this year, allowing just 16.5 ppg since giving up 49 points to the Broncos in the opener. The Ravens also play very well vs the Browns as they have won 10 straight vs them and in the last 9 they have given up an average of just 10.1 ppg in those 9 games. The Ravens offense is sputtering, having scored just 36 points in their last 2 games, while Cleveland has played good defense at home this year, allowing just 312.5 ypg and 21 ppg. This one has the feel of a sloppy low scoring game just like the last 6 in this series that has put up an average of just 32.5 ppg.

Tennessee -3 over ST LOUIS: Big scheduling advantage here as the Titans are off a bye week, while the Rams are on a short week after playing division rival Seattle on Monday night. In that game the Rams played their hearts out, but still came up short and that may lead to a bit of a letdown here. Kellen Clemmons is not suited to be an NFL QB and he showed that last week and will now be taking on another tough defense that has had tine to study him. The Titans are 24th in the league vs the Run and Zac Stacy is having a good year, but without much of a threat from Clemmons the Titans will be able to stack the box and take Zac out of the picture as well. Still with the nice play from Stacy the Rams are 24th in the league in rushing. The Titan offense hasn't been that good this year, but with the extra week to prepare you can expect some wringles in their offense and be able to put some points on the board vs a below average St Louis defense that really played WAY over their heads last week. Lets also note that since 1980, teams are 11-2 ATS if they are off a bye and on a 3 game losing streak, while taking on a team off a 7+ point spread win. Titans bounce back strong here. 

2 UNIT PLAY

DALLAS -9.5 over Minnesota: The Vikes are a mess right now, while the Cowboys are itching to get back on the field after last week's horrible loss to the Lions. The Vikes are a better team with Ponder at the helm, but still AP can't get going and their defense is one of the worst in the league. That won't help vs a Dallas offense that is very good and will be even better with the return of RB Murray in this one. Dallas does have the worst pass defense in the league, but they stop the run very will and will do so here and dare Ponder to beat them. He won't be able to. Dallas by at least 14 in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Washington Over 51: The San Diego offense has come alive this year as they are 4th overall, while scoring 24 ppg and are taking on a Skins defense that has been just awful this year, allowing 397.1 ypg and 32.7 ppg overall, including 33.7 ppg at home. The Washington offense has been inconsistent this year, but they have been looking better of late and they do score 30.7 ppg at home. The San Diego offense has played well of late, but I do see their poor pass defense struggling vs the Skins in this one. This game should be a fun shootout, with at least 55 points being scored.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

DAVE COKIN

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BUFFALO BILLS
PLAY: BUFFALO BILLS

The Kansas City Chiefs are the story of the NFL season to date. If a team is still unbeaten on the first Sunday in November, it’s a terrific accomplishment. When it’s a team that was tied for the worst record in the league the prior season and also had the poorest point differential in the entire NFL, that story gets even better.

But let’s not get carried away. ESPN has Kansas City its top power rated team in the NFL heading into Week 9. Sorry, but in my opinion, that’s a little ridiculous. Credit where it’s due, KC is perfect on the season and that rates praise. But for ESPN to apparently be basing its power ratings on nothing more than wins and losses is so 20th century.

The Chiefs have taken full advantage of facing a spectacularly soft schedule. Dallas is their strongest opponent to date. I understand facing lower level teams week after week is not the fault of the Chiefs and they can only beat who they play. But strength of schedule simply must be factored into any power rating formula. If it’s not, then it’s a seriously flawed process.

I’m not here to slam the Chiefs, however. In fact, I’m thrilled they’re still perfect on the season and receiving such lofty plaudits from heavily viewed entities like ESPN. The payoff is that all this positive pub is serving to inflate the betting lines on the Chiefs, and that’s good news for value bettors.

Regardless of which side of the metric argument you’re on, their cannot be much debate that the Chiefs have probably played their two shakiest games of the season back to back. They barely escaped with a one-point win at Houston, and they sure didn’t dominate the Browns last weekend. I think the pressure could be starting to build with KC now the last team standing in the race for perfection, and they look ripe to be upset right about now.

Buffalo gets to try and bust up the KC perfecto today and I give the Bills a real shot to exactly that. I have the Bills as the best losing team in the league right now. That’s not to suggest Buffalo is a playoff caliber squad or anything like that. But they’re at the top of the charts as far as the middle of the road entities are concerned.

I make this game a virtual coin flip, with the Chiefs the narrowest of favorites off the data I weigh most heavily. The number where it is right now is more in line with where I’d have it on a neutral field. The Chiefs only substantial unit edge here is on special teams. While I rank KC higher than the Bills on both offense and defense, the margins on both units is borderline negligible.

The biggest concern I have today is that the Chiefs have been great at finding ways to win close games, something the Bills have yet to master. But I’ve got some legitimate wiggle room with the spread currently higher than a FG. At that price, backing the home dog Bills is the way I’m going to play.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 3

Nelly

Minnesota Vikings + over Dallas Cowboys

Despite being 4-4 Dallas has a great point-differential with two one-point losses on the road and another narrow defeat at home to Denver. It has been an adventure for Minnesota with ugly losses in three straight games, using three different starting quarterbacks in those defeats. The Vikings have been a big underachiever that will feature value in many situations moving forward and the team has done its best scoring with Christian Ponder under center even if his numbers are marginal. Dallas has a well documented run of failure as a favorite in recent years including going 6-16 ATS the last 24 games as a favorite and 5-10 the last 15 as a double-digit favorite where this line could get back to. Coming off a run of big games and with the Saints next this could be a flat spot for Dallas. The Cowboys are the best ATS team in the NFL this season but that run of success is not likely to last for one of the most popular teams in the league.

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Scott Gramling

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -2

While road favorites are 9-1 ATS in November games over the past five seasons when coming off a road loss, all road teams coming off a road loss are 23-5 ATS in games after the first month of the season where the line is between +3 and -3. The Ravens are 25-15 ATS under head coach John Harbaugh in games where the line is between +3 and -3, and they’re 15-6 ATS under Harbaugh in road games after an ATS loss.

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Matt Fargo

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +4

Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL as it moved to 8-0 with its win last week against the Browns. The Chiefs have played good enough to be undefeated but this is arguably one of the weakest undefeated teams this late into the season that we have seen in a long time. They are not near the top in many power rankings and the big thing is the schedule they have played as it ranks as the easiest in the league thus far. Kansas City has played only one team ranked in the top half of the NFL and that was a one-point home win against Dallas. Every other opponent has a losing record and on top of it, five of the eight games have been at home. Additionally, the Chiefs are coming off a three-game homestand so they have not played on the road in a month and that will make this challenge even more difficult despite playing another team with a losing record. The Bills are 3-5 following a loss in New Orleans last Sunday but they were competitive for the most part but the situation they were in was brutal. They were facing a Saints team that is unstoppable at home, were coming off their first loss of the season and were also coming off their bye week. Not many teams can face that and expect to win. Prior to that, Buffalo won in Miami, lost in overtime against Cincinnati, lost to Cleveland after losing its starting quarterback and defeated Baltimore. That is a pretty good run for a team not many expected to win many games this season and the Bills are right in the Wild Card hunt. The schedule sets up well also with the Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Dolphins after that. This is a tougher team at home than most give them credit for. Buffalo has numerous angles going its way as well as it is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games coming off a road loss while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a loss. Additionally, the Chiefs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games coming off two consecutive home wins and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Even with Thad Lewis out, I feel the Bills have a great shot at taking this one outright.

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Harry Bondi

Baltimore / Cleveland Under 41.5

This series has gone under in the last six meetings with an average of just 32.5 points per game. The main reason is that the Browns have had a very difficult time finding the end zone against the Ravens, scoring 10, 14, 16, 15 and six points in the last five meetings. The Browns QB situation is a mess. In eight games this season, Cleveland has topped the 20-point mark just twice. The run-oriented Ravens haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard either, scoring 20 points or less in four of their last six games. It's another ugly Ravens-Browns affair. Go under.

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