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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

CINCINNATI (6 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 10/31/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road   
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games

Cincinnati at Miami
Cincinnati: 7-1 ATS after scoring more than 30 points the previous game
Miami: 1-3 ATS off a double digit division loss previous game

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

Bengals at Dolphins
By Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs and Broncos have taken plenty of the headlines in the AFC through the first half of the season. However, the Bengals aren't too far behind with a 6-2 record, while holding on to a comfortable lead in the AFC North heading into Week 9. Cincinnati travels down to Miami looking to extend a four-game winning streak, while the Dolphins have dropped four straight games after a 3-0 start.

The Bengals' offense put up their biggest output since 2009 in Sunday's 49-9 drubbing of the Jets, as Andy Dalton threw a career-high five touchdown passes. Cincinnati easily covered as six-point home favorites, while not allowing a touchdown at Paul Brown Stadium in the last nine quarters. Dalton connected with second-year wideout Marvin Jones for four scores, while the Bengals' defense returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns.

The Dolphins last won a game on September 22, a last-minute triumph against the Falcons at home. Since that 3-0 beginning to the season, Miami has stumbled for four consecutive defeats, including a blown 14-point lead in this past Sunday's 27-17 setback at New England. The Dolphins jumped out to a 17-3 halftime advantage, but Joe Philbin's club didn't score a point in the second half, while allowing 24 points to the division-leading Patriots. Miami failed to cover as 6½-point road underdogs, the fourth straight ATS defeat for the Dolphins since cashing in its first three victories.

Dalton and the Bengals look to avenge a home loss to the Dolphins last season, 17-13 as three-point favorites. Miami rushed for just 68 yards on 35 carries, but Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush each scored a touchdown on the ground, while Ryan Tannehill threw for 223 yards. Dalton was intercepted twice by the Miami defense, but connected with A.J. Green on a touchdown strike in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit to four points. The Dolphins held on for the underdog win, while beating the Bengals in each of the last two matchups (won at Cincinnati in 2010).

Cincinnati has split four games from an ATS standpoint as a favorite, which includes non-covers at Cleveland and Buffalo. The Bengals managed to knock off the Bills in overtime, but couldn't cash as six-point road 'chalk.' Since Dalton arrived as quarterback in 2011, the Bengals own a 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS when laying points on the highway, with four of those victories coming by double-digits.

Since 2010, the Dolphins have won just 11 of their last 27 games at Sun Life Stadium, which includes losses this season to the Ravens and Bills. Under Philbin, Miami has covered three of four times in the home underdog role (all last season), including an upset of Seattle as three-point 'dogs, 27-24 last November. Also, Miami has lost seven consecutive home games to AFC North opponents, with that streak starting in a 38-25 defeat to Cincinnati to close the 2007 season. handicapper Antony Dinero says this game can be a make-or-break for the Dolphins, "Considering both teams enter Week 9 with aspirations of lasting past Week 17, this contest at the halfway point means everything, momentum-wise. Can Dalton continue to sizzle as he has the past few weeks, further developing in-game chemistry with a formidable young receiving corps? If the Bengals continue to pile up passing yardage, it will be imperative that Tannehill find a suitable replacement for the injured Brandon Gibson, especially since Mike Wallace's transition has gone so poorly. Expect the team who does the most damage through the aerial attack to prevail on Thursday night."

Gibson tore his ACL in Sunday's loss to the Patriots, as the receiver is tied with Charles Clay for the team lead in touchdowns with three. The Dolphins will likely be without left tackle Jonathan Martin, who is listed as doubtful with an illness.

From a totals perspective, the Dolphins saw their five-game streak to the 'over' end in the loss at New England, as Miami has hit the 'over' in five of seven contests this season. The Bengals are riding a three-game 'over' streak, while posting the 'over' in three of four games away from Paul Brown Stadium this season.

The Bengals are listed as three-point road favorites at most outlets, while the total is set at 43. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

Thursday Night Football Betting: Bengals at Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 43)

The Cincinnati Bengals are threatening to turn the AFC North into a runaway and will go for their fifth straight win when they visit the skidding Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Cincinnati is coming off a superb performance, getting a career-high five touchdown passes from Andy Dalton in a 49-9 mauling of the New York Jets. "This is one of the first games we were able to finish because we jumped on them early," Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap said. "This was just a statement game."

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a major spiral, dropping its fourth straight game after blowing a 14-point halftime lead in a 27-17 defeat at New England on Sunday. So instead of thrusting themselves back into the AFC East race, the Dolphins are approaching must-win territory if they hope to remain in postseason contention. "If we don’t get wins in these next (few) games, I feel like (the season) could slip away,” middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe said.

LINE: This game opened at a pick'em and has since moved to Bengals -2.5. The total has climbed from 41.5 to 43.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing east at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-4.0) + Miami (+3.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Miami +4.0

ABOUT THE BENGALS (6-2, 5-2-1 ATS): One of Cincinnati's concerns has been its reliance on the combination of Dalton to standout wide receiver A.J. Green, but fellow wideout Marvin Jones went a long way to allaying those worries by hauling in a franchise-record four scoring catches in Sunday's onslaught. Dalton has rebounded from a pair of middling efforts against Cleveland and New England to throw for 1,034 yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his last three. The Bengals are also getting it done on defense, tied for fifth in the league with 18.0 points allowed per game, but will likely be without linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) for at least three weeks.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): Losing streak aside, Miami has to deal with additional fallout from Sunday's defeat. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson suffered a season-ending knee injury in in the loss and, following the game, center Mike Pouncey was served with a grand jury subpoena in connection with the murder investigation of former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez. The Dolphins churned out a season-high 156 yards rushing but still have not been able to protect quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-worst 32 times.


* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.


1. The away team has won the last three meetings, including the Dolphins' 17-13 win in Week 5 last season.

2. Cincinnati had two interception returns for TDs versus the Jets, the first time that's happened for the Bengals since December 1984.

3. Miami has had losing streaks of at least four games in five of the last 10 seasons.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Bengals have found it's rhythm following a slow start winning four-straight to improve to 6-2 (5-2-1 ATS) while establishing a commanding lead atop the AFC North. The Dolphins have done the exact opposite losing four-straight after a solid 3-0 start and now sit at 3-4 SU/ATS pushing closer to AFC basement dwelling status. Dolphins’ defense has struggled against both the run and pass in recent week putting the squad in a tough spot facing Bengals' who've just shredded their last three opponents for 6.9 yards/play on an average 335.0 passing, 100.3 rushing yards/game. Cinci nipped 17-13 as 3 point home favorites when these two clashed in week-5 last year it's not unreasonable to expect Bengals' exacting a little pay-back while covering the small number (-2.5 - 3.0). Might want to consider Bengals' knowing favorites who notch 6.0 or more yards/play have been solid bets this season posting a 16-25-2 mark against-the-spread. Besides, these Thursday night affairs have not been kind to home underdogs as they're 0-3 ATS this season, 3-7 ATS the past two years.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

Dolphins, Bengals hook up

CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-2) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-4) Line & Total: Cincinnati -3 & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Bengals -1 & 42.5

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet Thursday night when the Bengals put their four-game win streak on the line versus the Dolphins, losers of four straight (SU and ATS).

Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has been on fire in the past three games with 1,034 passing yards and 11 TD, including four scoring throws to WR Marvin Jones in Sunday's 49-9 rout of the Jets. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has been awful during his team's losing skid, completing just 54.5% of his passes with seven interceptions and 18 sacks taken. This includes absorbing six sacks in Sunday's 27-17 loss at New England in a game the Dolphins led 17-3 at half. Miami beat the Bengals 17-13 in a defensive struggle last year, as the clubs combined for five turnovers and just 148 rushing yards (2.7 YPC). Neither Tannehill (223 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) nor Dalton (234 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) were very effective in that 2012 meeting.

Both teams have some favorable betting trends to consider for Thursday. The Bengals are 9-1 ATS after a double-digit win over the past three seasons and are 6-0 ATS on the road after gaining 400+ yards in two straight games under head coach Marvin Lewis. However, Miami benefits from Lewis going 7-16 ATS (30%) versus AFC East opponents and that the Bengals are 10-23 ATS (30%) when facing a marginal losing team (40% to 49% win pct.) since 1992. Both teams announced season-ending injuries to key players this past week with news that Cincinnati DBs Leon Hall (Achilles) and Taylor Mays (shoulder), and Dolphins WR Brandon Gibson (knee) are all done for the year.

As well as the Bengals have played during their four-game surge, they are just 1-2-1 ATS on the road this year with a pedestrian 20.2 PPG and 87 rushing YPG on 3.5 yards per carry. RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard comprise a mediocre ground game (99.8 rush YPG) that has averaged a mere 3.6 yards per rush (26th in NFL). That has prompted the Bengals to take to the air with QB Andy Dalton, whose recent hot streak puts him fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,249) and seventh in passer rating (8.1 YPA, 16 TD, 7 INT). In addition to Marvin Jones' four-score heroics last week, Dalton continues to rely on top WR A.J. Green who leads the AFC with 734 receiving yards and ranks among the top-10 wideouts in the NFL in both catches (46) and TD receptions (five).

The offense is also helped by Bengals defense that allows just 4.8 yards per play (4th in NFL) and 18.0 PPG (T-5th in league). The run defense has given up just two 100-yard games all year, holding the past two opponents to 85.0 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC. Cincinnati has generated 20 sacks over the past six contests and 12 takeaways on the year. Exploiting the shaky Dolphins offensive line with a consistent pass rush will be key with the injuries in the secondary to CB Leon Hall and SS Taylor Mays. Also, DT Devon Still (elbow) is questionable for this game while LB Rey Maualuga remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Miami's offense has been subpar in all facets this year with 311 total YPG (28th in NFL), 89.1 rushing YPG (23rd in league) and 5.95 passing yards per attempt (24th in NFL). But despite the struggles of QB Ryan Tannehill in recent weeks, the ground game has been excellent over the past two games with 276 yards on 4.9 YPC. Top RB Lamar Miller racked up 112 total yards in last week's loss to the Patriots, and did not get a carry against the Bengals last year. No. 2 RB Daniel Thomas rushed for a touchdown in that win in Cincinnati but finished with only 29 yards on 10 carries. But in the past two games, Thomas has exploded for 107 yards on 21 attempts (5.1 YPC) and remains in a near timeshare with Miller.

With slot WR Brandon Gibson out for the season, second-year pro Rishard Matthews will fill his spot, coming off a three-catch, 30-yard performance when he was targeted a season-high six times last week. But Tannehill will still look mostly to consistent WR Brian Hartline (3+ catches in all seven games) and mercurial deep threat WR Mike Wallace who hauled in just three of 10 targets last week. The Miami defense ranks 20th in the NFL versus the pass (245 YPG) and 19th against the run (110 YPG), but a lot of that is due to being on the field for 31:27 (8th-most in NFL). The Dolphins have given up 23+ points in each of the past five games, but with DE Cameron Wake (15 sacks last year) nearly 100 percent recovered from his knee injury, the pass rush has been much better since the bye week, tallying seven sacks in two games. Miami's defense has also forced at least one turnover in every game this season, totaling 11 over their seven contests.

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