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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

CAROLINA (3 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 6) - 10/24/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 68-38 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay
Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

NFL Page Week 8

Panthers (3-3) @ Buccaneers (0-6) —
Carolina has yet to allow first half TD, outscoring foes 68-17 before halftime this season; their three wins are by average score of 34-8, but their only win in three road games was 35-10 at dysfunctional Minnesota. Panthers picked off pass on opponents’ first series in each of last three games, scoring defensive TD on first play last week against Rams. Winless Bucs are 1-5 vs spread, losing home games by 2-3-11 points; since ’09, Tampa is 4-13-1 as home underdogs. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread so far this season. Bucs won four of last six series games, winning 16-10/27-21 in LY’s meetings, but Carolina is 7-3 in last ten visits here, albeit 1-2 in last three. In their last five games, Panthers have three TDs/FG on their first drive of second half, so they’re making solid halftime adjustments. Rookie QB Glennon is 0-3 as a starter, but they’ve scored 17.7 ppg in his three starts, compared to 11.3 in Freeman’s starts. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers every game this season.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Carolina Panthers (3-3 SU/ATS) looking for their third straight victory are 5.5 to 6.0 point road favorites heading into Tampa Bay for a Thursday night tilt against winless Buccaneers (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS). Panthers one of the better defensive squads allowing a league second-best 13.8 PPG on 302.2 total yards present a formidable challenge for Buccaneers with rookie QB Mike Glennon starting and RB Doug Martin out with a shoulder injury. Panthers extremely efficient on the offensive end last two games racking up 30 plus points/game sinks Bucs ship. Stick with Panthers knowing Thursday night road favorites the past two seasons are a smart 6-3 ATS and that Buccaneers enter 3-14-1 ATS as home underdog of 7.5 or less, 1-6 ATS as home underdog during pumpkin month.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

Thursday Night Football Betting: Panthers at Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 40.5)

Cam Newton has been overshadowed by the highly publicized quarterback class of 2012, but he has the Carolina Panthers at .500 for the first time in his three-year tenure as they prepare to visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. The Panthers have won three of four and a victory Thursday would give them them a winning record, something that hasn't occurred since the end of the 2008 season. Tampa Bay posted a pair of six-point wins over Carolina last season.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who will be making his fourth career start.

LINE: The Panthers opened at -6 and have been bet down to -5.5. The total has jumped from 38.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (0.0) + Tampa Bay (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers +3.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-3, 3-3 ATS): Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been steely efficient in back-to-back victories over St. Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina's defense has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-6, 1-5 ATS): Three of Tampa Bay's losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developeding a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games.


* Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.


1. The teams have alternated series sweeps over the past four seasons.

2. Newton has five TD passes and zero interceptions with four rushing scores in his last three versus the Buccaneeers.

3. Tampa Bay churned out 297 rushing yards in the two wins over Carolina last season.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

Panthers at Buccaneers
By Kevin Rogers

The NFC South race is pretty much the Saints to lose at this point. Past 5-1 New Orleans, the other three teams in the division own a combined 5-13 record, as two of those clubs hook up on Thursday night. Week 8 kicks off with the winless Buccaneers hosting the surging Panthers, as Carolina has come back to life following an 0-2 start to the season.

The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost a pair of tight contests to the Seahawks and Bills in the first two weeks of the season by a combined six points. Carolina is back in business by winning three of its last four games, while scoring at least 30 points in all three victories. Ron Rivera's squad hasn't beaten a team that is currently above .500, but the Panthers are taking care of their business against the foes on their schedule.

The most recent triumph for the Panthers came against the Rams last Sunday in a 30-15 home victory as 7½-point favorites. Cam Newton put together an efficient 15-of-17 day passing with one touchdown, while Captain Munnerlyn's interception return for a score less than a minute in to the game set the tone for Carolina. The Panthers' defense forced three turnovers, while knocking out St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn left ACL suffered in the fourth quarter.
The Buccaneers (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) have pretty much a disaster since the start of the season. The opening week loss to the Jets in which a late unsportsmanlike conduct penalty set up the game-winning field goal opened the door to six consecutive losses. Also, Tampa Bay cut veteran quarterback Josh Freeman after four weeks and handed the offense over to former North Carolina State standout Mike Glennon. The move hasn't resulted in wins for Tampa Bay, who suffered its most recent to another division foe last week.

Tampa Bay fell behind early in last Sunday's 31-23 defeat at Atlanta as six-point underdogs, as the Bucs trailed by as many as 17. The Falcons rushed for just 18 yards on 18 carries, but Matt Ryan torched Tampa Bay's defense for three touchdowns. Amazingly, the Bucs held onto the ball for nearly 38 minutes, while Glennon hooked up with Vincent Jackson on a pair of touchdown tosses. The game easily went 'over' the closing total of 43, the second straight 'over' for Greg Schiano's club following four consecutive 'unders' to start the season.

The Panthers are playing with double-revenge after getting swept by the Bucs last season. Tampa Bay grabbed the 2012 season opener, 13-10 to cash outright as three-point home underdogs. The Bucs jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead before holding off a late Carolina rally, while limiting the Panthers to only 10 yards rushing. Tampa Bay pulled off the season sweep after overcoming a 21-10 deficit to stun Carolina last November, 27-21 in Charlotte. Doug Martin tore up the Panthers' defense for 138 yards on the ground, while Jackson hauled in 94 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The Bucs will be without Martin this Thursday and likely for the next few weeks with a left shoulder injury, which was suffered in the loss at Atlanta. Tampa Bay will turn to former Miami Hurricanes' running back Mike James to fill Martin's void, as James rushed for 45 yards and 14 carries against the Falcons. handicapper Antony Dinero says this is a must-win for the Panthers to be a legit squad in the NFC, "Thanks in part of the relative mediocrity of the rest of the NFC, the Panthers have an opportunity to establish themselves as a playoff team at the season's midway point. They'll have to get accustomed to being the hunted, so seeing how they handle this role of road favorite against a winless team starting a rookie backfield will tell us a lot about their killer instinct. Will Newton be unleashed, or will Carolina take the cautious approach and limit risks? Both the margin of victory and total will hinge on Rivera's approach."

Since the start of 2012, the Panthers own a profitable 7-4 ATS record away from Bank of America Stadium, although they have covered just once in three tries this season. As a favorite in this stretch, Rivera's club is just 3-6 ATS, while failing to cover as road 'chalk' at Buffalo and Arizona. The Panthers have split their last six trips to Raymond James Stadium since 2007, with their last win coming in 2011 as three-point favorites.

On the flip side, the Bucs have been a horrible home underdog since Jon Gruden's departure after the 2008 season. Tampa Bay owns a dreadful 4-14 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium since 2009 when receiving points, although one of those covers came in Week 2 against New Orleans in a 16-14 loss in the final seconds as three-point 'dogs. That ATS win against the Saints was the only one through six contests for the Buccaneers this season.

The Panthers are listed as six-point favorites at many books, while the total sits at 40. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 24

Buccaneers look for 1st win

CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-3) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-6) Line & Total: Carolina -6.5 & 40.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -7 & 40.5
The Buccaneers try to win their first game of the season without top RB Doug Martin (labrum) when they host the red-hot Panthers on Thursday night.

Carolina has played turnover-free football in its past two games, winning both contests by a combined 65 to 25 score. Tampa Bay’s offense has improved slightly with QB Mike Glennon (17.0 PPG, 219 pass YPG) than with former starter Josh Freeman (11.3 PPG, 175 pass YPG), but the defense has allowed 31 points in back-to-back losses. The Bucs are now 1-11 SU (2-9-1 ATS) in their past 12 games, but actually swept the Panthers last year by outrushing them 297 to 107 yards. However, it was Doug Martin who ran for 233 of those yards, and now it will be rookie RB Mike James' turn to try to be the main ball carrier versus a Carolina run defense that ranks fourth in the NFL with 84.5 rushing YPG allowed.

Almost all of the betting trends point towards a Panthers win and cover, as they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, and 33-12 ATS (73%) versus poor offensive teams (17.0 PPG or less) in team history.

Although the Panthers rank 28th in the NFL in passing yards (197 YPG), QB Cam Newton is enjoying a fine season with a 64% completion rate, 7.8 YPA, 10 TD and 5 INT, leading to a 95.0 passer rating (10th in NFL). The one negative is the amount of sacks he's absorbed (18), but Newton also done a decent job running the football with 179 yards on 4.6 YPC with two touchdowns. Newton has fared pretty well against the Bucs in his career with a 63% completion percentage and a hefty 9.3 YPA, throwing for 6 TD and 2 INT. WR Steve Smith (293 rec. yards, 3 TD) remains his No. 1 target, but Smith has been pretty quiet in this series since 2009, averaging 50 receiving YPG with just 1 TD over eight meetings with the Bucs. TE Greg Olsen leads the team with 339 receiving yards, but Tampa Bay has done a fantastic job of shutting down opposing tight ends over the past four games, holding them to a combined 10 catches for 117 yards and 0 TD. With RB Jonathan Stewart (ankles) still at least one week away from returning from the PUP list, RB DeAngelo Williams (434 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 0 TD) remains the main ball carrier with Mike Tolbert (3 TD) getting the goal-line work.

Defensively, the Panthers have been strong all season, leading the NFL in defensive time of possession (26:24), placing second in scoring defense (13.8 PPG) and ranking third in the league in both total defense (302 YPG allowed) and red-zone efficiency (35.7%). The team has generated 16 sacks over the past four games, and has produced multiple takeaways in each of the past five contests. The Carolina defense has a few injury concerns though, as DT Dwan Edwards (hamstring), CB D.J. Moore (knee) and DB Robert Lester (hamstring) are all questionable for Thursday's game.

Although QB Mike Glennon has been better than Josh Freeman was, the rookie has still struggled at times. Glennon has thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt this season with a pedestrian 58.5% completion rate, 5 TD and 3 INT. He has also fumbled in all three of his starts, losing two of them. Glennon has really zeroed in on top WR Vincent Jackson, targeting him 15.7 times per game including a hefty 22 targets in last week's loss in Atlanta. That puts Jackson tied among the NFL leaders in total targets for the season (77), which he has parlayed into 544 receiving yards and 4 TD. Jackson will likely be leaned on heavily again versus a Panthers team that he gained 141 yards with a touchdown against last year, and also because No. 2 WR Mike Williams (196 rec. yards, 2 TD) is questionable for the game with a lingering hamstring injury. The only other Bucs player with at least 100 receiving yards this season is TE Timothy Wright (153 rec. yards, 0 TD) who exploded for 91 yards on seven catches in his last home game two weeks ago. Rookie RB Mike James is the only healthy running back on the roster with more than three carries this year, but he has gained just 57 yards on his 17 attempts (3.4 YPA), and his three catches last week totaled a mere eight yards.

Defensively, the Bucs have done a great job stuffing the run, allowing just 89 YPG (5th in NFL) on 3.5 YPC (4th in league). But the lack of a consistent pass rush (two total sacks in past three games) has hurt the secondary, which has allowed the past two opposing quarterbacks to complete 42-of-57 passes (74%) for 560 yards (9.8 YPA). Tampa Bay has forced just one turnover in three of its past four contests, but has been able to stay in games with a stellar red-zone defense (40%), which ranks fourth in the NFL.

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