Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Jeff Alexander

Jacksonville Jaguars +16.5

History is overwhelmingly in Jacksonville's favor Sunday. Underdogs of 10.5 or more points that have lost 7 or more in a row are 26-6 ATS the last 30 years when they're matched up against an opponent that is coming off 1 or more consecutive wins. This system tightens up to 8-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the spread in 2 or more consecutive games if they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 30 years. This system also tightens up to 8-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll play by the numbers and take the points.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Dave Price

Pittsburgh Steelers -2

The Steelers have rebounded from an 0-4 start with wins in their last two games, and I expect them to keep right on rolling Sunday. The Raiders have had a bye week to prepare for this contest, but they have not been a strong post-bye investment. In fact, they are 0-10 (1-9 ATS) in their last 10 games the week after a bye, losing these contests by 13.2 points on average. While one could make an argument that this is a sandwich game for Pittsburgh following a big division win over Baltimore and with New England on deck, I say not a chance. The Steelers believe they can still get back in the AFC playoff picture, and they know there's no margin for error if they're going to pull it off. Plus, you know they haven't forgotten about what transpired last year in Oakland. Pittsburgh blew a 10-point four-quarter lead and lost 34-31. That defeat will serve as a huge motivator Sunday. The Raiders are on a 36-67 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3. They are also on a 15-30 ATS skid as a home underdog of 7 points or less. You also want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 if they scored 14 points or less in their last game and average just 14.5-18 points per game on the season when they are matched up against a team that allows only 18-23 points per game. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Joseph D'Amico

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders    
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -2


Pittsburgh has come into form following their bye week, going 2-0 SU and ATS as they beat New York and Baltimore while holding them to just 11 PPG. RB, Le'Veon Bell is establishing the ground game while receivers, Brown, Sanders, Cotchery, and Miller are giving defenses nightmares. Ben Roethlisberger is getting time in the pocket as the OL has improved. The Steelers "D" is healthy as they rank 4th against the pass and 6th overall in Yards Allowed. They face an Oakland team that is just plain old bad, ranking 32nd in passing and averaging a dismal 17.5 PPG. The rushing game is good but their OL has been hurt by injuries which will allow the Pittsburgh stop unit to key on the run. Lest not forget that Troy Polamalu missed last year's game and wants to make a statement here. The Raiders are a mess. This is the ideal solution for the Steelers to step up, flex their muscles, gain some confidence, and make a move in their Division. The Raiders are 1-9 ATS their L10 games played following a bye week while the Steelers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played in the month of October. Take Pittsburgh.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Alex Smart

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions    
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3

I am betting we see a quarterback duel this week as QB Tony Romo of Dallas and Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford go head to head. Both have a talented receiving corps. The difference maker will come down to mistakes. It must be noted that Motowns receivers are second worst in the NFL with a 6.9 percent drop rate.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Larry Ness

Redskins at Broncos
Pick: Over

Peyton’s incredibly hot start had tongues wagging about 2013 being a record-setting season for the future Hall-of-Famer and just maybe, a 16-0 year for the Broncos. While Peyton may yet break some records (he’s completing 71.6% for an average of 366.4 YPG with 25 TDs, just three INTs and a QB rating of 123.3), the possibility of Denver going 16-0 came to an end last Sunday night in Peyton’s homecoming. Manning's return to Indianapolis resulted in a 39-33 loss to his former team, snapping a franchise-record 17 consecutive regular-season wins for Denver.

Peyton was 29 of 49 for 386 yards with three TD passes and just one INT. However, he was sacked four times and hit 10 times. By game’s end, Peyton had had enough. Now, he and the Denver Broncos will try to bounce back and spoil coach Mike Shanahan's return to Denver, as the Broncos seek their 11th straight regular-season home victory Sunday against the Washington Redskins. "I am looking forward to going back to Denver," said Shanahan, who also served as a Broncos offensive assistant for seven years over two different stints before becoming head coach.

Shanahan coached Denver for 14 seasons, amassing a 138-86 regular-season record and leading the franchise to its only two Super Bowl championships. However, he posted a 1-4 playoff record in 10 seasons following back-to-back titles. Shanahan’s first two season in Washington resulted in a combined 11-21 record but led by rookies RG III and Alfred Morris, the Redskins finished 10-6 last year, winning the NFC East title for the first time since 1999. The Redskins lost 24-14 in the Wild Card round to the Seahawks.

Robert Griffin III originally injured his knee on Dec 9 but it buckled underneath him during the fourth quarter against the Seahawks. It was later determined that Griffin had sustained a tear of his LCL and a damaged ACL. He underwent reconstructive surgery of his knee for an LCL tear and damaged ACL but as promised, was back for Week 1 of the 2013. However, Griffin was not “all the way back,” as of Week 1. That said, Griffin is clearly getting better week by week. He’s run 20 times the last two games, gaining 161 yards (8.1 YPC).

The Redskins are just 2-4 but in the NFC East circa 2013, they are just 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Cowboys (4-3). Washington’s coming off its best game of 2013 last Sunday, a 45-41 home win over the Bears in which the Redskins gained 499 yards, 209 on the ground and 290 through the air. That kind of balance should give Denver’s defense fits.

One has to at least slightly pause in evaluating just how good the 2013 Broncos are. Five of the team’s six wins have come over Baltimore, the NY Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia and Jacksonville. That group owns a combined record of 9-25 (.265). Against its two toughest opponents, Dallas and Indy, the Denver defense has allowed 48 and 39 points, respectively.

The victory against the Bears marked Washington's second straight game with 200-plus rushing yards, including a season-high 84 on 11 carries by Robert Griffin III as well as 95 and 41 from Alfred Morris and Roy Helu Jr., respectively. Griffin recorded a season-high 105.2 passer rating while benefiting from the emergence of tight end Jordan Reed, finding the rookie nine times for 134 yards and a score. Denver own the league’s worst pass defense 339.1 YPG), it has also been susceptible to opposing tight ends, allowing six or more catches and 74-plus yards to the position three times.

That said, Denver is on a record-setting pace with 298 points scored (42.6 per), the most in history through the first seven games of a season. Denver's margin of victory in its four home games in 2013 has been 21.5 points, so I don’t want to try and fade them here. However, I sure don’t think Denver will have much luck stopping RG III and Co, so I’ll go over.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

AC Dinero

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New York Giants +6

The Giants are off to a terrible start this season, picked by many to win the NFC East, including yours truly. They have an opportunity to even the score with their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants got their 1st win last week, getting the o'fer monkey off their back. The Eagles are coming off a division home loss to Dallas last week, but the get QB Vick back. The Philly offense moves the ball well, particularly in the running game. The rush defense has been pretty good to. But they give up way too many plays in the passing game (over 7.0 ypa), and have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down, giving up 41%. The Giant defense hasn't been bad, except for getting off the field on 3rd down. Giving up 47% is how you get to be 1-6 instead of 4-3. Turning the ball over doesn't help either. The talent is there to be better. When NY gets into the red zone, they convert. The Giants have played well over the years in Philly, and I expect this Sunday to be no different.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

RJ Robbins

Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Cleveland Browns +9.5     

Kansas City is 7-0. We all see it but don't really believe it. This week they face a team in Cleveland who is starting their 3rd QB Jason Campbell. Cleveland has a Top 10 defense and a bottom 10 offense. Well so do the Chiefs. Look for KC to win the game however we will take the Browns plus the points!

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Bryan Power

Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Pick: Buffalo

Though I typically don't like to go against the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, this week provides one such opportunity with the undervalued Bills.....

Over the last three seasons, New Orleans is 16-4 ATS at home, 15-3 when favored.  Most of those losses occurred last season when they didn't have Sean Payton on the sidelines. In fact, all of them did as they were 9-0 ATS on this field in 2011 (including playoffs) & off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start this season, beating Atlanta, Arizona and Miami by an average of 17 PPG.

Now that I've made a decent case for the Saints (whoops!), let me explain why the Bills are worth a look here.  They enter this game at 5-2 ATS and last week they didn't even end up needing the points, winning outright in Miami, despite the fact the Dolphins were off a bye.  New Orleans is off a bye this week, a role they are just 5-3 straight up in under Payton.

More importantly, the Saints may be without their top offensive weapon, TE Jimmy Graham.  Even if he does play, you might be surprised to learn that no team in the league does a better job at defending tight ends than does Buffalo.  Opposing teams are averaging 5.2 yards per attempt to the TE against the Bills (league average is 7.6 YPA).

I'm actually pretty surprised that this number has come down (a slight cause for concern) at many shops, but by kickoff I'd expect it to be bet back up as the public will see New Orleans at home, off a loss and a bye, and think they have no shot at losing.  While I see the Saints winning this game SU, I don't see them covering.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Teddy Covers

Dallas vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

This is a classic ‘spot’ play in the NFL.  We’ve got the Cowboys fat and happy off back-2-back divisional wins and covers against the Redskins and Eagles. And we’ve got the Lions hungry and ready coming off a frustrating home loss on a last minute field goal following a shanked punt last week. 

Put those two factors together with this very reasonable -3 pointspread and it’s not hard to make a case for the home favorite.

Monte Kiffin’s defense has struggled against good passing teams all year long.  With cluster injuries on the front seven, particularly at linebacker; facing a Lions balanced Lions attack that has averaged more than 32 points per game at Ford Field this year will be a tough task.  Let’s not forget the Cowboys miserable ATS track record coming off a win in the Jason Garrett era, just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 tries in this role.

Detroit’s numerous special teams miscues last week, including a ten point swing on a blocked field goal that led to a Bengals TD haven’t been a consistent problem for them – I’m not expecting a repeat.  And I believe veteran center Dominic Raiola’s quote: “We will bounce back.  I know we will bounce back. We have a bunch of fighters in here. Look who is in this room, look at our quarterback. We have the best wide receiver in the world. We have a bunch of fighters in here.”  Take the Lions.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

NFL Betting Picks

New York Jets +7 -120

The Jets are getting little respect here heading to Cincinnati with a 4-3 record, but that is possibly because they are just 1-2 on the road and the Bengals who are 5-2 overall are 3-0 at home. New York is coming off a win vs New England, and they've alternated wins and losses since opening up the year with a victory against Tampa Bay. They are 5-2 against the spread this year, including 2-1 ATS on the road with a 3 point loss in New England and a road victory against Atlanta as 10 point underdogs. The Bengals have won three straight, including a last second win in Detroit last week. Of their 5 wins only one was by more than 7 points, and that was a 10 point victory against a struggling Pittsburgh team in Week 2. The Jets have been impressive on defense, ranking 4th in the NFL giving up just 302 yards per game although 23.1 papg. Offensively the Jets rank just behind the Bengals at 15th in the league, and are scoring 19.1 ppg. Jets Rookie QB Geno Smith seems to be getting better with each start, as he's currently sitting with a 74.3 QB Rating. Getting 7 points with one of the league's best defenses and a team that has proved they can play well on the road is good for 2 units for me.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Bruce Marshall

Dallas vs. Detroit
Pick: Over

It has helped the Dallas “D” to face a gimpy-legged RG III and  a green Matt Barkley the past two weeks, so Monte Kiffin will have to reach deeper into his defensive bag of tricks to cope with Matthew Stafford, Megatron and other imposing Detroit weaponry. But unless Cowboys’ sack demon DE DeMarcus Ware (thigh bruise, missed last week at Philly) returns to active duty, Kiffin might have trouble harassing Stafford as did Cincy’s amped-up pass rush last week. Meanwhile, Baylor rookie WR Terrance Williams making it harder for Dallas foes to gang up on Dez Bryant. Lions “over” 8-3 mark last 11 as host looks a good bet to continue.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Kyle Hunter

Steelers vs. Raiders
Play: Under 40½

The Oakland Raiders are more competitive than most people expected this year. Pittsburgh lost their first two games of the season, but the Steelers defense has lead them to consecutive wins over the Jets and Ravens over the past 2 weeks. Oakland's offense is reliant on Terrelle Pryor and the running game. The Steelers still have a much better than average defensive unit. Look for them to make life difficult for Pryor in this one. Pittsburgh offense hasn't been any good all year, and I see no reason to believe they will be better here. Take the under.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Tony Karpinski

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions    
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3

Ever since the Broncos game the Dallas defense has really stepped it up. Dez Bryant is a matchup nightmare for DBs, and will be again here on Sunday. The Cowboys have a very explosive offense and Tony Romo is having a great year. They are a first-rate team. In the end Dallas wins a close one battle pulling away in the 2nd half . Dallas is 6-1 ATS on the season and I like them as another underdog on Sunday afternoon plus the points.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Red Dog Sports

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
Play: San Francisco 49ers -14

Take San Francisco is this game that is set for Wembley Stadium in London. The 49ers need to stay with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West so they should be focused. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in its last four and scored 31, 32, 34 and 35 points. Frank Gore has run well as he has over 400 yards in those four games and QB Colin Kaepernick has 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in that span. Jax is 0-7 this year and looked poor last week. Chad Henne had 318 yards passing but stalled in the red zone and the Jaguars were unable to run the ball well as they had just 78 yards on the ground.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions    
Play: Detroit Lions -144

The Lions will look to bounce back off a tough home loss here to the Bengals last week. The Lions are 7-1 to the spread vs NFC East teams. Dallas has failed to cover in 7 of 8 when the total is more than 47 and is 1-7 straight up and ats vs NFC North teams. The Cowboys are also in a play against system that pertains to going against teams when the line is +3 to -3 and they allowed less than 7 points in their last game and are taking on a team that lost a close game by 1-3 points. These teams like Dallas are just 7-30 to the spread. In general road teams in non division games are mediocre when coming off a divisional road win. Dallas shut down the Eagles last week but his will be a tougher task against a hungry Lions team. Dallas has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 in the series. In games from October on out Detroit is 17-3 ats off a loss vs an opponent off a win and cover. With Dallas 1-10 ats after allowing 10 or less,we will side with The Lions.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Jack Jones

New Orleans Saints -10.5

The New Orleans Saints will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss of the season. They fell in the closing seconds at New England last time out on October 13 as they allowed the Patriots to drive the length of the field with no timeouts to get the game-winning score with only a few ticks left on the clock. New Orleans has had two full weeks to steam over that defeat after having a bye in Week 7. Now, look for the Saints to come back more determined than ever to take out their frustration on the Buffalo Bills this week.

New Orleans is 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game at home this year in the process. On the season, it is scoring 26.8 points and averaging 397.7 yards per game to rank 6th in total offense. However, it’s the improvement from the defense that has made all the difference for the Saints. They rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game, and 11th in total defense at 338.0 yards per game.

Buffalo ranks just 18th in the league in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. It is struggling to put up points now that it is down to its third-string quarterback. The stop unit hasn’t stopped anybody, giving up 25.4 points and 380.4 yards per game to rank 24th in total defense. Drew Brees and company should have their way with this soft Bills' defense. Brees is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.

The Saints are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three meetings with Buffalo. New Orleans is 13-2 against the spread in its last 15 games versus poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game. Buffalo is 0-6 against the number off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.

New Orleans is 16-4 against the spread in its last 20 home games, and 15-3 against the number in its last 18 games as a home favorite. The Saints are a perfect 5-0 against the number in their last five games following a bye week. Buffalo is 6-19-1 against the spread in its last 26 games following a win. Bet the Saints Sunday.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Alex Smart

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions    
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3

I am betting we see a quarterback duel this week as QB Tony Romo of Dallas and Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford go head to head. Both have a talented receiving corps. The difference maker will come down to mistakes. It must be noted that Motowns receivers are second worst in the NFL with a 6.9 percent drop rate.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Andy Iskoe

Denver -11

The steady improvement of Redskins QB RG III in recent weeks paid off with a wild 45-41 last minute home win over Chicago. Clearly, the defense remains a concern and that does not bode well heading to Denver. The Broncos are averaging 42.6 points per game and are off of Sunday night's loss at Indianapolis in which it appeared the hype and distractions leading up to the game affected the play of Denver QB Manning. With no such distractions here, and Denver now trailing Division rival Kansas City by a game in the AFC West, expect the Broncos to rebound in a big way that will find the Redskins unable to trade points, especially in the second half. The Broncos have been dominant at home all season in the second half of games. And that should continue here.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Carlos Salazar

Redskins vs Broncos
Play: Over 57.5

The Denver Broncos have gone over the number each and every week this season and tonight against the Redskins will be no different. Last week the Redskins gave up 41 to the Bears with a back up quarterback for half the game. Peyton will slice and dice the Washington defense and the Redskins in turn will score at least 30 on their own. This one goes over the total with ease.

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 27

Ken Thomson

Washington / Denver Over 58.5

I know it's a so called square play.....I have played all Bronco games over since week one.  The Skins finally look like a team that should move the ball on offense now that RG III is playing with confidence.  The knee is as good as it will get and he did not play scared last week.  If he plays like that today and is aware of Von Miller the Skins should score 27.  Denver should be good for 35 plus against a Defense that could not stop the Bears at all last week.  I've got the Broncos 41-27

Blade
useravatar
Online
217025 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45103
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
283878
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.7
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3629
Newest User:
Henry Patton
Members Online:
2
Guests Online:
1818

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com