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MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

Red Sox at Tigers: What Bettors Need to Know

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (N/A)

Series tied 2-2.

The pitchers who set the tone for this American League Championship Series oppose each other again Thursday night when Anibal Sanchez takes the mound for host Detroit against Jon Lester of Boston in Game 5. Sanchez struck out 12 in six no-hit innings in the opener and Lester also was strong as the Tigers squeaked out a 1-0 victory. Detroit center fielder Austin Jackson reached base four times as the Tigers evened the series with a 7-3 victory Wednesday.

Detroit’s Jhonny Peralta singled in the lone run against Lester in the opener, a contest in which Sanchez walked six and was pulled after 116 pitches. Jackson’s standout Game 4 performance in which he had two hits, two walks and two RBIs came after he was dropped to eighth in the lineup due to a deep postseason slump (3-for-33, 18 strikeouts). Boston slugger David Ortiz was hitless in five at-bats in Game 4 to drop to 1-for-15 in the series – his only hit being the game-tying grand slam in Game 2. The Red Sox had 12 hits to match their total over the first three games but went 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with an 82 percent chance of rain and winds blowing WSW at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Jon Lester (0-1, 1.42 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 0.00)

Lester allowed one run and six hits in 6 1/3 innings in Game 1 and has given up just three runs in 14 postseason innings this month. The opener marked his first loss since Aug. 29 as he finished the regular season by allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and has added two such performances in the postseason. That stretch included a Sept. 3 start when Lester struck out nine and allowed one run in seven innings to beat the Tigers.

Sanchez joined Walter Johnson (12 innings in 1924 World Series) as the only pitchers to strike out 12 and walk six in the same playoff game. The stellar outing represented a sharp turnaround from his start against Oakland in the AL Division Series when he allowed six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez has struck out 10 or more batters six times this season.


* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
* Red Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

UMP TRENDS - Dale Scott:

* Under is 4-0 in Scott's last four games behind home plate.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games with Scott behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-1 in Scott's last six games behind home plate vs. Detroit.


1. Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury went 4-for-5 with an RBI in Game 4 after going 1-for-10 over the first three games.

2. Tigers RF Torii Hunter batted leadoff for the first time since 1999 and had a crucial two-run double in Detroit’s five-run, second-inning uprising.

3. Boston batters have fanned 10 times or more in all four games and 53 overall in the series.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

Tigers - Red Sox

Lester is 3-1, 2.38 in his last five starts, but allowed 19 hits in 13 IP in his last two starts on the road; three of his last four starts went over the total. Lester is 2-1, 3.32 against the Tigers this season, losing that 1-0 game Saturday.

Sanchez is 1-2, 6.26 in his last five home starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts overall. He struck out 12 and didn't allow a hit in six IP against Boston earlier in this series, a 1-0 Detroit win, his only '13 start vs Red Sox.

Boston is 3-5 in their last eight road games; 10 of their last 13 games went over total. Red Sox are 5-6 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 7-4 in those 11 games. Detroit is 7-9 in its last 16 games; nine of their last thirteen stayed under the total. Tigers won eight of their last twelve home games- they're 28-23 vs lefthanded starters this season.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

BOSTON (102 - 68) at DETROIT (98 - 73) - 8:05 PM


There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+0.8 Units) against BOSTON this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)

JON LESTER vs. DETROIT since 1997
LESTER is 2-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.490.
His team's record is 3-5 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

SANCHEZ is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)


The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

Boston at Detroit
Lester: 12-2 TSR after a loss
Sanchez: 5-15 TSR when the total is 7 or less

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

Red Sox, Tigers hook up

BOSTON RED SOX (102-68) at DETROIT TIGERS (95-71) Line & Total: Detroit -118 & 7.5 under -130

After tying up the ALCS with the Red Sox at two games apiece on Wednesday, the Tigers will look to gain momentum in Thursday's Game 5 at home before the series shifts back to Fenway Park for the remainder of the ALCS.

Detroit will send right-hander Anibal Sanchez (15-9, 2.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) to the mound on Thursday night, attempting to win a second game in this ALCS. Toeing the rubber for visiting Boston will be veteran southpaw Jon Lester (16-9, 3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). These two pitchers squared off in quite a duel during Game 1 of this series, as Sanchez and the Tigers came away with a 1-0 win. During that game, Sanchez threw six no-hit innings with 12 of his team's 17 strikeouts. But Lester was also sharp, going 6.1 innings while allowing only one run. This series has been dominated by the Detroit starting pitching, and they continued this trend on Wednesday night as Doug Fister went six innings and only allowed one run while striking out seven. Tigers starters have now struck out 42 batters in 27 innings pitched and allowed a mere three runs over that time (1.00 ERA). DH Victor Martinez has been a huge part of Detroit's offense so far this postseason (15-for-35, 5 XBH) and he has two hits in each of the past three games. With Wednesday's win, Detroit once again took the edge in the season series by one game (6-5), and improved its 2013 home record to 53-32 (.624). The Red Sox dropped to 46-39 (.541) on the road after the loss.

Jon Lester has been strong for the Red Sox this postseason, allowing only three runs on nine hits over 14 innings pitched (1-1, 2 GS). Two of the three runs that Lester has allowed during these playoffs have come from solo home runs. Lester has been extremely reliable this year, averaging over 107 pitches per game, and has pitched at least six innings in 16 of his last 20 outings. The Red Sox are 20-15 when he takes the mound, but only 8-12 on the road, where the left-hander is personally 8-7 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In his career against Detroit, Lester has gone 2-3 (team is 3-5) with a 4.24 ERA and 1.49 WHIP over eight starts. These subpar numbers can be attributed to the fact that 3B Miguel Cabrera (11-for-21, 3 XBH, 6 walks), OF Torii Hunter (13-for-33, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI) and DH Victor Martinez (6-for-17, 1 triple, 1 HR, 3 RBI) have enjoyed plenty of success in the matchup. However, the lefty has been a great postseason pitcher with a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 appearances (eight starts). If Lester gets into trouble, he will have great faith in Boston's bullpen that has pitched 13.1 scoreless innings in this series with a .200 opponents' BA and 10 strikeouts. For the season, Red Sox relievers are 32-23 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez looks to continue the tremendous performance that the Detroit starting pitching has displayed this series. Sanchez's 2.57 ERA in the regular season led the American League, and his 202 strikeouts ranked sixth. Although he walked six batters in Game 1, his control has been solid all season with 62 free passes in 192.1 innings. The Tigers are 18-13 when he starts, including 10-5 at home where Sanchez is personally 8-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The one problem with Sanchez is that he is inconsistent. This has been on display in a microcosm during the playoffs. In his first playoff start against the Athletics, Sanchez allowed three home runs and did not make it out of the fifth inning in a 6-3 Detroit loss. Then, against the top scoring offense in the majors, Sanchez no-hit the Red Sox over six innings and struck out 12. That was his first career start against them, so some of the Boston batters may have an easier time picking up his pitches a second time around. The only Boston hitters who have more than six at-bats against Sanchez are OF Shane Victorino (.217 BA, 1 HR, 9 K's in 46 AB), SS Stephen Drew (5-for-22, 6 K's) and reserve C Davis Ross (2-for-12, 1 HR, 3 K's). Sanchez is now 2-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in five postseason starts, and has averaged 6.2 innings per start in 2013. But if Sanchez gets into trouble in Game 5, he has a shaky bullpen behind him, as evidenced by an 18-27 record, 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. And after allowing two runs in four innings in Game 4, Detroit relievers now carry a 6.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over eight innings in the ALCS.

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