Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Matt Fargo

Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens    
Play: Baltimore Ravens +3

This is one of those games where I feel the wrong team is favored yet the public is continuing to hammer the road favorite. Green Bay is coming off a win over Detroit last week which came after its bye week and now it hits the road for the third time this season after having lost the first two games on the highway. The Packers offense has been solid as they are third in the NFL in both scoring offense and total offense but the defense has been a big letdown. They are ranked 20th overall and this is even with giving up just 286 total yards to the Lions last week. Of course, the Lions were a different team with Calvin Johnson being inactive. Now the Packers have to move on without linebacker Clay Matthews who was injured last week and linebacker Brad Jones who re-aggravated a hamstring injury last week. Green Bay has not been very opportunistic either on defense. In 2011 they were the best in the NFL with 38 forced turnovers, in 2012 they regressed significantly and only mustered 23 forced turnovers. Through four games this season the Packers have just five turnovers. Baltimore picked up a much needed road win at Miami last week which came after a tough three-point loss at Buffalo the previous week. The Ravens are 3-2 and are tied atop the AFC North with both Cleveland and Cincinnati so taking care of business at home is a must. They travel to Pittsburgh next week and despite the Steelers being winless heading into this week, Baltimore knows it will get a full effort out of Pittsburgh there which puts even more emphasis on this game. For the most part, it has been a disappointing start to the season as the Ravens are ranked 14th in total defense and 21st in total offense but they one thing they continue to do good is stop the run as they are ranked sixth in rushing defense. This is a big part of the game here as Green Bay has a rejuvenated rushing offense that Baltimore needs to keep in check. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is 7-8 against AFC teams on the road, whereas Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 10-0 against NFC teams at home. Additionally, the Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Kyle Hunter

Titans vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 41½

The Seattle Seahawks defense is on a whole different level when playing at home. Seattle should feast on Tennessee's backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in this one. At the same time, the Titans defense is much better than most expected it to be. They have been very solid all year against even the top offenses in the NFL. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Cardinals +10

The 49ers have struggled against good teams this season. They almost lost the season opener against Green Bay, and were handed embarrassing losses by Seattle and Indianapolis. Since those games the 49ers have played a soft Rams team, and a Texans team that is having some major issues this season. The once stout 49ers defense is now mediocre, allowing an average of 19.6 points per game.

The Cardinal's defense has played every bit as good as the 49ers have this season, allowing 19 points per game. Arizona has a 4-1 ATS record this season because they have continuously been undervalued by the oddsmakers. Even though Carson Palmer has been interception prone at times, he has given his team a chance to win in every game this season with the exception of their matchup versus the Saints. The 49ers are not in the same class as New Orleans at this point in the season, so there is no reason to believe they will be able to cover a double-digit line in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Alex Smart

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots    
Play: New England Patriots -135

The New England Patriots are fresh off their first loss of the season to the Cincinnati Bengals and are primed for a bounce back despite vs over hyped New Orleans- despite of some injuries. New England’s defense this season already has slowed down some of the league’s better quarterbacks and now Saints pivot Drew Brees is on their hit list. I'm betting the home team gets us the money in this spot.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Joseph D'Amico

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers    
Play: San Francisco 49ers -10

San Francisco is back on track, winning and covering their L2 games, outscoring St. Louis and Houston by a combined 69-14. The offense boasts the 6th ranked running game in the NFL, averaging 140.2 YPG on the ground behind Gore, Kaepernick, and Hunter. Arizona's run-defense has been good statistically but they really haven't faced a true ground game yet. Kaepernick's numbers are good…21of-38, 280 YP, and 3 TDs, but most-importantly, 0 INTs. The QB doesn't make costly mistakes. The Arizona LB corps will go after Kaepernick but this will allow the QB to do what he does best, come out of the pocket and create plays. Arizona is posting a mere 18.2 PPG. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1185 yards but has only a 58.9% CR and more INTs (9) than TDs (5). Without a true rushing attack, the Cardinals offense will be overwhelmed by the #2 ranked pass "D" of SF. The 49ers won both meetings last season by a combined, 51-14. Arizona is 2-7 ATS their L9 games played vs. the 49ers and 2-8-1 ATS their L11 games played in October. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played vs. the NFC and 8-2 ATS their L10 games played in October. Take San Francisco.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Cleveland Browns +3

In a battle of 3-2 teams we will back the home dog here as Teams like Cleveland that home dogs of 2.5 or higher have covered 9 of 11 times in the last of a 3+ game home stand if they won their last game by a touchdown or more. Another fine system that has been cashing big is to play on Teams who won on a Thursday vs an opponent off an ats loss on a Sunday. These teams that have the extra days of prep time have made good use of it. The Lions have lost 15 of 20 vs winning teams and are 2-11 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less. Calvin Johnson has been limited with a nagging knee injury most of the week and may not play here and if he does may be limited. The Browns have played well with Gordon back in the fold and he has meshed well with QB Weeden. Cleveland has a defense that is over 90 yards better statistically. With Detroit 1-8 to the spread as a road favorite off a straight up and ats loss. We will back Cleveland as we See what Brown can do for you.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Bruce Marshall

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

While Tampa Bay's clubhouse is likely better off without any further Josh Freeman distractions, it's hard to see the Bucs improving much on the field in the short term with very green NC State rookie Mike Glennon (two picks in first start Sept. 29 vs. Cards) forced into action. Even if Michael Vick's tweaked hamstring (not originally thought to be serious) keeps him out, 2nd-year QB Nick Foles moved Chip Kelly's offense nicely last week at the Meadowlands and appears to be a better alternative than backing Glennon. Birds (tied for first in NFC East!) at least still appear invested for Chip Kelly; not sure about 0-4 Bucs for under-fire Greg Schiano.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Jim Feist

Titans at Seahawks
Pick: Over

A LONG road trip for Tennessee, 3,000 miles from the East Coast to the northwest. Despite a winning record (3-2), this team has a lot of problems. QB Jake Locker was having a breakout season but is done, so QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting. The offense had just 339 total yards and was 4-14 on third down. Running back Chris Johnson managed just 17 yards on 10 carries and now has 38 yards in the past two games combined. Seattle is home from a two-game road trip and won't be in a good mood after suffering their first loss, 34-28 at the Colts. Center Max Unger, a Pro Bowl selection last season, is back and will be able to play Sunday when the Seahawks host Tennessee after missing the past two games with a triceps injury, a huge plus. Seattle is talented all over the field and they play like beasts on this field. The Titans are 7-2 Over at home their last nine games against a team with a winning record. In fact,the Seahawks for such a good defensive team have gone over in nine of their last 13 games overall. I think Seattle will want to punish someone today and that's Tennessee. I like this game to fly OVER the total on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Andy Iskoe

Seattle  -13.5

Tennessee showed how much injured starting QB Locker is missed as backup Fitzpatrick played poorly in the loss to Kansas City. After playing 3 straight home games the Titans now make the long trip to Seattle. Generally considered as having the best home field edge in the league, the Seahawks seek to regain momentum following their loss in Indianapolis. It's a big number to lay but Seattle has been dominant at home since last season and the Titans are limited offensively. Seattle has a decided edge in running the football. Both teams do have solid profiles in key metrics but Seattle has the edge across the board, often by significant margins. Seattle's ability to run the football should work to wear down the Tennessee defense. The Seahawks have rushed for over 150 yards in each of its last 4 games. Ultimately Seattle extends its lead in the second half and gets a comfortable win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

AC Dinero

Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Tennessee Titans     

Seattle has talent across the board, which is why they are close to a 2 TD favorite this weekend. They live off the big play, which could be bad if they don't hit them since they are only converting 31% on 3rd down. The Titan pass D is pretty good at 6 ypa and are only giving up 28% on 3rd down. Even though the Titans are starting a back up QB, it wasn't as if the starter was lighting it up. Tennessee will run behind an improved OL, which been effective thus far. The Titans also don't beat themselves with mistakes, and thus, should be able to stay with in 2TD's of a very good Seattle team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +6 over DALLAS

Perhaps the most exciting game of the season took place last week when Denver went into Dallas and won an old-fashioned shootout by a score of 51-48. Dallas rallied from 15 down, they took a seven-point lead with about five minutes to go and were in a position to win it with the ball and tied 48-48 with 2½-minutes to go. But once again Tony Romo threw a pick at the worst possible time. Denver ran the clock down and kicked the winning FG on the games’ final play. That outstanding performance by the ‘Boys has their stock soaring this week and we often say the worst time to jump on a team is when their stock is at its highest level.

No two ways about it. The media and Dallas fans would have been kinder if they just lost 51-28 instead of 51-48. That final drive interception only reinforced the perception about the Cowboys in general and Tony Romo in particular. It did show that the offense can hang with any team at least in a home game and that the new Cover 2 defense is not exactly a finished product yet. The Cowboys remain bottom five in defending all passing categories and that wasn't just the Manning factor. That loss to Denver was one of the most heartbreaking in years for Dallas and the emotional toll it took could very well carry over into this game. Let’s also not ignore that this is one of sports’ fiercest rivalries and when these two get together it’s almost always a game that is unpredictable and close. With that horrible defense and coming off a hugely emotional game, this is not the right time to be spotting six points with Dallas to a team that could easily score first and many more times after that.

Washington’s stock remains low. They have one win and it came against a Raiders team minus Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that the Redskins are a good team because they are not. They still boast one of the weakest secondaries in the game that gives up massive yardage every game. However, the ‘Skins are coming off a bye week, essentially giving them two weeks to prepare for this game. The NFL CBA says that players get a true week off during their bye week but that freak Mike Shanahan surely had players “voluntarily” coming in to watch film and prepare for this game. Regardless, the Skins had an extra week to get healthy and start over again, as they are just a game behind the leaders in the NFC East. As long as Robert Griffin III can avoid making mistakes and turnovers, the Redskins can stay in this game and compete. Dallas is bound to be a little down from last week and that would play in the Skins favor. Finally, this is a true buy-low, sell-high opportunity, as the Redskins are the forgotten team while Dallas gained a whole lot of backers after last week’s performance.


Carolina +120 over MINNESOTA

Minnesota was on its bye week but found a way to make news anyway, signing Josh Freeman after he was released by Greg Schiano. Christian Ponder isn’t a quality starter. Matt Cassel looked good against Pittsburgh, but everyone looks good against Pittsburgh. What is the purpose of adding yet another mediocre quarterback? Who will be No. 1? Who will be No. 2? Who will be No. 3? There are just too many question marks and not enough answers in Minnesota and we’re not about to back this team after a game overseas. Minnesota’s offense on paper doesn’t look bad with 24 points or more in every game but in case you haven’t watched them, most of their points came giftwrapped by the opposition. No offense or team in the NFL has been aided more than the Vikings by bizarre bounces and crazy turnovers. Without that, the Vikes would be averaging about 10 points a game. This week it appears as though Matt Cassel will start again but that could change by game time or during the game. Regardless, the Vikes offense is a one-dimensional mess and their defense can’t stop the marching band, having been shredded by Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Carolina is 1-3 but they are the league’s best 1-3 team. The Panthers could easily be 4-0. They lost their opener to Seattle 12-7 and were in a position to win it. They lost in Week 2 to Buffalo by one point but surrendered a TD with 2 seconds remaining in the game to have victory snatched from their hands again. In Week 3, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and last week the Panthers lost in Arizona by a score of 22-6 but had numerous opportunities to put away the Cardinals and even outgained Arizona in the air by a count of 268-160. The Panthers have been a self-destructive unit but have been the better team in every one of their games so far. The Panthers defense has allowed just five touchdowns in four games and opponents are scoring less than 15 points a game. A team this good should not be 1-3 after four weeks and certainly not 1-4 after this contest. Carolina is so close. If they can fix the little things, big things will happen for the NFL’s most undervalued squad. It starts right here.


Pittsburgh +111 over N.Y. JETS

Before the season began the Steelers win projection was nine games. The Jets’ win projection was five games and you would have to search long and hard for anyone that either bet the Jets over five or that was even thinking about betting it. Nobody wanted any part of the New York Jets. The Jets go on to win their opener and as a 13-point dog in Week 2 in a prime time game against the Patriots, the Jets were the better team and probably should have won. In the end they lost by three to the Pats and instantly gained respect. Fast forward two weeks and the Jets are a surprising 2-2 with another prime timer up on Monday Night Football in Atlanta. As a 10-point pooch, the Jets played their best game of the season and defeated the Falcons. Now the public has seen the Jets twice in the first five weeks and in both games the Jets were very impressive with a relentless defense and a young, dynamic QB that is moving the offense for the first time in years. The Jets are now 4-1 against the number and their stock is high. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has disappeared. Not only are the Steelers 0-4 but they’re coming off a bye week, meaning they have not been heard or seen from in two weeks. What folks do remember is that if they bet on Pittsburgh this season, they lost because the Steelers are 0-4 against the spread. That sets this one up beautifully. The Jets are in a huge letdown spot here after a Monday Night win and they will also play this one on six days rest while the Steelers will have had two weeks rest. The Steelers get some healthy bodies back and they also have a guy they can hand the ball off to in Le'Veon Bell. Perhaps most importantly, the Steelers are in a foul mood and figure to put relentless pressure on Geno Smith. Smith has committed turnovers in every game except one so far. He’s still a rookie and he still has a tendency to make bad decisions when pressured. Give us Big Ben over Geno Smith in a buy-low, sell high scenario and we’re most certainly going to hop on that train. Steelers get their first win of the season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix @ CAROLINA

OT included. After losing to the Islanders, 6-1, Phoenix responded with back-to-back road wins in Detroit and Philadelphia. This will conclude its five-game road trip and they’re either going to finish it 2-3 or 3-2. Dave Tippett will emphasize the importance of winning on the road and how they can turn a 0-2 start into a 3-2 finish. The Coyotes calling card under Dave Tippett has been defense, hard work and discipline and the Coyotes have shown precisely that in their last two games. Phoenix's top four of Keith Yandle, Derek Morris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Zbynek Michalek are among the best in the league and the addition of Mike Ribeiro gives them a legit scoring threat. The Coyotes are a tough out and if teams aren’t at their best when playing them, they will run into trouble.

This year we’re seeing matchups that we haven’t seen in a couple of years and in the early going it seems to favor the road team. There are a few examples of the visitor winning in these situations that include Tampa’s win in Chicago, Colorado’s victories in Toronto, Boston and Washington, Calgary’s win and OT loss in Columbus and Washington respectively, Montreal’s win in Edmonton and Phoenix’s win in Philly. The home teams just don’t appear to be as well-prepared as the guest for a club that they haven’t faced in a long time. This is another one of those games. Carolina hasn’t seen the Coyotes since December of 2011. The ‘Canes are coming off a hard-fought OT loss against the Kings (another one of those “strangers”) and they have the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs on deck. We see this is an unfavorable situation for the Hurricanes and one in which they could get caught napping in.


Ottawa +139 over ANAHEIM

OT included. The Senators continue to be undervalued and against a team like Anaheim at a price like this, the Sens are a must play. Ottawa went into San Jose last night and lost 3-2 but we can guarantee you that coach Paul MacLean is steaming after the Sens were outshot 50-23. Ottawa has now lost three in a row and has just one victory in four tries but they’ve picked up points in three of their four games so far. In fact, the only game that Ottawa hasn’t picked up at least one point in was against San Jose last night. Ottawa has two more games left on its season-opening six game trip. These Sens are too good to keep losing at this pace. The Sens figure to be a little extra jacked up here in support of their new teammate, Bobby Ryan. Knowing how important this game is to Ryan, expect the Sens to give it everything they have and play their best game of the season so far.

The Ducks are overvalued because of three successive wins including a 6-0 shellacking over the Rangers in their last game. We say big deal, as the Rangers are getting crushed by everyone. Prior to that, Anaheim had a 3-2 win over Winnipeg, a 4-3 OT win over the slow starting Wild and a 6-1 loss to Colorado. We just can’t see how the Ducks are better than last year after basically swapping out Ryan for Silfverberg, losing Sheldon Souray and leaning on improvements from young guys that can only be so big. Although it’s just four games in, the Ducks have had the benefit of a soft schedule and when they did play a determined team like Colorado, they lost by five goals. Ottawa is the better club here in a good spot, taking back a sweet price.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Sean Murphy

Tennessee vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

The Titans are off to a nice start this season but the wheels are starting to come off, and I don't expect them to contend with the Seahawks for four quarters on Sunday.

Last week, we saw Tennessee fade in an eventual 26-17 loss to Kansas City. Jake Locker's absence certainly didn't help matters as Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 21-of-41 passes and threw a pair of interceptions to go along with one touchdown. Without a consistent ground game to speak of, or an explosive wide receiving corps, this is an undermanned offense without Locker on the field - it really is as simple as that.

The good news is, the Titans do have a physical defense that some will say has over-achieved this season. That unit is capable of keeping them in this game for a while, but I believe it's only a matter of time before the Seahawks pull away with a back-breaking score.

Seattle should be in a foul mood after a very un-Seahawks like performance in Indianapolis last Sunday. Perhaps they were a little worse for wear after that thrilling come-from-behind overtime win in Houston a week early, but whatever the case, the 'Hawks weren't sharp in a 34-28 loss to the Colts.

This is an ideal bounce-back spot against a Titans squad that is still in line for some regression. Note that even in Tennessee's 38-13 rout of the Jets two weeks ago, it was still outgained in terms of total yardage. The Titans margin for error is razor thin right now and I feel they're running into a hornet's nest in every sense of the word on Sunday.

The Seahawks don't lose ATS very often and I don't expect them to miss a cover for a second consecutive week. Look for them to go back to what works, and that means playing an aggressive, opportunistic brand of defense, and keeping things simple on offense. That's a formula that should work well against a very beatable 3-2 Titans squad.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Teddy Covers

Green Bay vs. Baltimore
Pick: Under

We got two under-rated defenses facing off against two offenses that are struggling in the red zone AND committed to running the football .  Put those three factors together with the consistently high totals in the modern NFL era and the case for the Under is perfectly clear.

Let me start with the defenses.  Green Bay got Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety last week after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The Packers front seven really controlled the field against Detroit, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do it again here even without Clay Matthews relentless pass rushing abilities.

The Ravens stop unit didn't allow a single TD in their two previous home games.  On the road over the past two weeks, Baltimore was able to consistently force field goal attempts with red zone stops.  Buffalo and Miami combined to score only two TD’s in seven red zone chances.  For all the ‘defensive leadership’ questions surrounding this team over the summer, here in the Fall, Baltimore’s stop unit is still worthy of respect.

In the Ravens loss at Buffalo two weeks ago, offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell took some heat for Baltimore’s lack of balance on offense.  In their two previous games, Baltimore had 61 passes and 67 rushing attempts.  Against the Bills, that ratio was 54 passes to nine rushes, and Joe Flacco threw five interceptions as a result.  Last week, it was back to normal: 40 running plays and 34 passing plays.  With a notable lack of downfield targets, Baltimore’s best chance for success in 2013 is by pounding Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce between the tackles.  That being said, it’s surely worth noting that neither Rice or Pierce is averaging even three yards per carry this season!

In their last three contests, the Packers have had three different running backs rush for 99 yards or more in a game.  Last week, even against Detroit’s shaky secondary, Green Bay was committed to the run throughout: 33 rushing attempts and 31 passing plays.  Rookie Eddie Lacy is developing into an ‘every down’ back and a focal point of the offense.  And while Baltimore’s red zone defense has been stifling, Green Bay’s red zone offense has been scuffling; 0-fer the game scoring TD’s in the red zone last week against Detroit.

Both QB’s have ‘downfield’ arm strength, but both offenses are settling for a lot of ‘dink and dunk’ this year.  In particular, Joe Flacco is ranked #22 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this season, right below Christian Ponder.  And while Rodgers numbers are significantly higher, much of that has been on ‘catch and run’ short passes; something the Ravens defense has been very good at defending.   Neither squad has an elite level offensive line and both QB’s have faced significant pressure for extended stretches this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Bryan Power

Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Detroit

Typically, I'm wary of road favorites in NFL (they're just 10-16 ATS this season, including 2-5 last week), but I'll recommend a wager on the Lions this week as they play at the Browns. If Cleveland were a stock, they'd have the feeling of being at a 52-week high right now. They've won 3 straight, but I don't think it lasts..

I played against Detroit last week as they went to visit a desperate Green Bay team that was off its bye week.  When it was announced gameday morning that their best player, WR Calvin Johnson, would not play, I felt fortunate that I made my bet early, thus ensuring I got a better line.  Turns out that line of thinking was irrelevent as the Packers won 22-9 (line closed at -10.5).  Johnson is listed as probable for this week and I see his return leading to a big offensive day for the Lions here.

How does your heart not go out to the city of Cleveland? Just when things start going right for the Browns, sparkplug QB Brian Hoyer is lost for the season to an ACL injury.  That means the return of Brandon Weeden, who I have little regard for.  Yes, the team won w/ Weeden under center last week, but that was against a bad Buffalo team.  Look for things to start leveling off for the Browns starting this week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Nelly

Houston Texans over St. Louis Rams

The Texans are 0-5 ATS this season and they have lost three in a row with both wins coming on the final play of the game in the first two weeks of the season. With the Colts at 4-1 already and the Titans looking formidable a return to the playoffs may be a long shot for a team that seems to be crumbling. Matt Schaub is playing with little confidence, incredibly with a pick-six in four straight games and but the Texans do have great overall statistics on both sides of the ball, looking like a far better team than the record shows. Houston has out-gained foes by a greater margin than any team in the NFL (and it is not close) as this team has much more potential than the results have shown. St. Louis has ugly numbers but they share the same record as the Texans at 2-3. In most categories the Rams are towards the bottom of the NFL on offense and defense and this should be a bounce back opportunity for the Texans. Even with a growing spread late in the week this is a good situation for Houston to get it together and last weeks win for the Rams over lowly Jacksonville was not impressive.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Harry Bondi

CAROLINA (-2) over Minnesota

Carolina provides a ton of value because this is a much better team than the record indicates. The Panthers come in off a misleading loss at Arizona in which they outgained the Cardinals, but turned the ball over four times. The defense matches up very well against the Vikings since they have been rock-solid against the run and shaky against the pass. Minnesota is allowing 30 points per game, so we expect Cam Newton to put up big numbers here. The Vikings are coming off a bye, but head coach Leslie Frazier is 0-2 ATS in his career with a week off to prepare and over the years the Panthers have done a great job of taking care of inferior opponents, going 10-4 ATS against losing teams the last three seasons and 67-38 (64%) since 1992. Panther roll over a distracted Minnesota team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Bob Balfe

New Orleans Saints +2.5

I don’t doubt the ability of Tom Brady or the head coach of the Patriots, but this team has no offensive talent. The skilled players are just not good enough to make noise in this league. The Saints don’t have that problem. Who is going to stop their skilled players? Believe it or not I think the real damage will be done on the ground today. Wilfork going down was huge, but now Kelly is out also on defense. This line is looking pretty weak and if you give Drew Brees time forget it. This is a huge mismatch. Take the Saints.


Boston Red Sox -110

The key to the playoffs this year has been pitching. Both starters today are equally as impressive so I will go with the home team who is desperate to win today, hitting the ball better and very tough to beat at home. This should be another great game. Take Boston

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Doug Upstone

Cardinals vs. 49ers
Play: Under 41½

On Sunday, Play UNDER on road teams like Arizona when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, against opponent off a home win. In the past three decades, this system is 26-5, 83.9 percent, with the average total score 32.7.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

Chase Diamond

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Buffalo Bills

This game features the 3-2 Bengals at the 2-3 Bills. Last week we played on the Bengals to a big win over the Patriots. This week we will switch sides to back the Bills who are in a nice home spot here. The Bengals are 9-20 ats in there last 29 games in October and 1-5 in there last 6 ats in October games. Bills are also 4-0 following a straight up loss and 4-0 ats last 4 playing on turf. Bengals are 1-4 ats in their last 5 meetings against the Bills. Also add in that the Bengals are fresh off a big time win and will be hard to get up for the Bills and a seemingly easy win. The public is all over the road Bengals here at a rate of 62% yet this line has dropped to -6 in some spots. Take the Bills plus the points here for a cover and a 9* winner.

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