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NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia at New York
By Teddy Covers

Philadelphia at New York Giants
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: NY Giants -1 O/U 55
CRIS Current: NY Giants -2 O/U 53
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia

The high flying Eagles offense has been shut down in each of the last two weeks.  First Kansas City’s elite stop unit forced six Philly turnovers while holding Chip Kelly’s offense to 16 points.  Then last week, at Denver, the Eagles were forced to settle for crucial early field goals, continuing a trend of red zone failures.  Philly’s trend of ‘lots of yards, not so many points’ continued.

But after facing the Chiefs and Broncos defenses in back-to-back weeks, this is a major step down in class for the Eagles offense against the struggling Giants stop unit.  The Giants yards-per-play numbers aren’t bad, holding foes to 5.3 ypp in contrast to the Eagles 6.0 ypp allowed (only five teams are worse).  But those ypp numbers are skewed, because in the second half of each of their first four games, the Giants opponent has enjoyed a big lead, just looking to run out the clock.  In fact, the Giants have trailed by 17 points or more in all four previous contests.

This has been an underdog series, with the dog cashing winning bets in four of the last five meetings.  The only exception came in last year’s meaningless season finale for both teams, a game where Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes before halftime of a 42-7 win for the G-men as 6.5 point favorites.  The Eagles are a very different team now in terms of chemistry and motivation than they were down the stretch of Andy Reid’s last season in Philadelphia.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Giants suspect offensive line over the past week.  Center David Baas is hurt.  Guard Chris Snee is hurt.  Tackle David Diehl is less than 100%, no sure thing to suit up or to be effective here.  That leaves rookies and inexperience galore on the line, with Justin Pugh, Brandon Mosely, James Brewer and Jim Cordle – not exactly a who’s who of elite linemen – in the mix for extended playing time on the OL this Sunday.

Last year’s second half meltdown filled with ugly late season losses exposed a leadership void in the Giants locker room.  They laid down and quit early when trailing in each of their last two ballgames.  And the G-men are now 3-9 SU and ATS since their 6-2 start to the season last year.  Six of their last eight losses have come by 18 points or more; non-competitive efforts.

Last week, the Giants pulled out all the stops to compete at KC.  Here are some pre-game quotes from prior to that contest.  Victor Cruz: “I think the better Giants team is going to show up this week.  I think it’s a different mindset. I think this is where we turn the page and kind of make a good run and get a couple of wins under our belt.

Locker room leader Antrel Rolle: “We put ourselves in this situation. Not anyone else. I’ve been out there Sunday when it’s been going down. At the same time, we’re not worried about what has taken place. There is nothing we can do, no matter how hard we try, no matter how hard we pray, no matter how many times we blink our eyes, nothing is going to take back that 0-3 start. It is what it is.  But we can control what happens this day going forward.”

So to see the Giants lay another complete egg in that ballgame tells us very clearly that this is not a team that should be favored.  It’s not like this homefield is particularly strong; and it’s not like Philadelphia has a similar ‘we’re done’ mindset, sitting just a game out of first place.

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NFL Gambling Preview: Houston at San Francisco
By Ian Cameron

Houston at San Francisco
Sunday, 5:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener: San Francisco -6.5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: San Francisco -5.5 O/U 41
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Francisco -6
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Houston

I’m not quite ready to shovel dirt on the Houston Texans yet. The public consensus is fairly negative toward this team after back-to-back losses to Baltimore and Seattle with the latter being particularly tough as the Texans held a 20-3 lead only to lose in overtime on their home field. Houston will be highly motivated and perhaps even desperate to come out with a strong game here against San Francisco on national TV. Matt Schaub is under the gun from Texans fans after his pick six late allowed the Seahawks to force OT before their eventual win but I expect him to play well here and with a chip on his shoulder following that defeat. We can’t lose sight of the fact that Houston had firm control of that game for nearly three quarters which is a lot better than how San Francisco fared against that same Seattle team back in Week 2.

Speaking of the 49ers, I’m not convinced all is right after their 35-11 romp against St. Louis last week. The Rams are an awful team that has lost their last three games by a combined score of 97-42. San Francisco’s last two games against playoff contending teams were both ugly results – a 29-3 loss in Seattle and a 27-7 loss at home against Indianapolis and the 49ers were outgained by 165 yards in the two games combined. The most stunning part of those games was seeing San Francisco get bullied at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football which doesn’t often happen. Colin Kaepernickalso struggled in those two games compiling an ugly 0-4 TD-INT ratio.  Houston’s defense does have a major injury concern with the possibility that linebacker Brian Cushing may miss the game due to a concussion suffered last week.

On the flip side, San Francisco’s defense will once again be without linebacker Aldon Smith who has taken a leave of absence from the team due to off the field issues. They also lost a key piece to their run defense with NT Ian Williams done for the season after suffering a broken ankle a few weeks ago. They’ll likely have lineback Patrick Willis back after dealing with a groin injury that kept him out of last week’s game but sometimes the first game back from an injury can be difficult.

I expect the Texans solid running back duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have some success running the football and help take pressure off Schaub. Keep in mind the 49ers allowed 184 rushing yards to the Colts and 172 rushing yards to the Seahawks. San Francisco was able to shut down the non-existent St. Louis ground game last week but Houston has much stronger offense.

Houston should be primed for a bounce back showing and I will grab the points here with a game they are capable of winning outright.

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Detroit coming off 40-32 victory over Bears will be brimming with confidence but it's hard to make a case for Matthew Stafford and company when they visit Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon. Detroit has a 3-11-1 ATS skid going last fifteen away from Mo-Town and the Lions haven't won at Lambeau Field since '91 posting an ugly 0-22 (5-15-2 ATS) mark the past twenty-two trips into Green Bay. While it's possible Lions could upset the apple cart, it's doubtful, the rested Packers are tough to topple following a bye week (5-1, 6-0 ATS) and they're on a smart 15-1 (12-4 ATS) stretch at home hosting the division, own a smart 9-3 ATS record after a road loss as a favorite.

Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants

Chip Kelly's offense struggled against an AFC West team for the third-straight week, this time suffering a massive 52-20 loss to the Denver Broncos. Eagles pass protection giving up a whopping 992 yards over the three losses can take comfort they're facing a New York squad who's offense is out of sync. Eli Manning has a 56.3% completion rate tossing 9 interceptions vs 6 TD's and the G-Man haven't got a run game (57.8 RYG) to mix things up. Giants in the current state of flux can't be trusted as 2.5 point favorites. Eagles with the top ground game in the league (198.2 RYG) will run over Giants sending G-Men to an 0-5 SU/ATS start, 3-10 SU/ATS slide since week-9 of last year. A few final sports betting nuggets to consider. Road underdogs who win the ground game by 50 or more rushing yards are a profitable 5-1 ATS this season, 42-8-1 ATS the past two seasons. Eagles have been a pain in Big Blue's side of late posting an 8-2 SU/ATS record L10 encounters.

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NFL Gambling Preview: New England at Cincinnati
By Otto Sports

New England at Cincinnati
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Cincinnati pk O/U 45
CRIS Current: Cincinnati pk O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -2.5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Under

The Cincinnati Bengals suffered their second defeat of the season after dropping an absolute dogfight (no pun intended) to the Browns last week. They return home to the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium to take on the Patriots, hoping to hand New England its first loss of the year.

Cincinnati was held to just six points last week on the road and they committed two turnovers. Sloppy offense has been a major factor for this team the past two seasons despite a trip to the playoffs. Right now they are averaging a little more than two turnovers per game and seeing Andy Dalton miss what should be easy throws must be frustrating to the Bengals’ coaching staff.

Coming into this contest the boys in orange and black are ranked in the bottom ten in total offense, rushing offense, and scoring offense. They need to find a spark and they need to distribute the ball around; too often Dalton tries to force the issue with receiver AJ Green. While I agree with the sentiment that you can trust him even when double teamed I don’t think you can target him on nearly every passing down, which it seems like is happening regularly. It’s not like this offense lacks other weapons either. Fellow receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones have flashed at times, Gio Bernard looks electric in his rookie season and both Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eiffert can be great security blankets at tight end.

The good news is when the offense isn’t turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad position they’ve generally played like a top ten stop unit. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise considering where they were ranked last year. Still this defense hasn’t exactly played up to its complete potential in my eyes and some key injuries to the secondary and at linebacker could leave them vulnerable against Tom Brady this week.

Speaking of Brady it’s difficult to get a real read on what to expect from the Pats in this game offensively. They’ve run a bunch of different formations, tried a bunch of combinations while breaking in a brand new receiving corps and at times looked unbeatable and at others unbettable. Brady is still a masterful quarterback but he’s playing without a full deck right now. Wes Welker’s presumed replacement Danny Amendola has missed the majority of the season and all pro TE Rob Gronkowski has yet to even suit up. Forced into the fire at wideout and struggling through some growing pains Brady has worked with Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins and Dobson was forced out of last week’s game through injury. The only reliable pass catcher has been Julian Edleman.

Let’s give credit to the defense for playing pretty well to start the season. One big injury note is the loss of Vince Wilfork at tackle, one of the premier linemen in the game. While crediting this unit we must point out however that the Pats faced rookie quarterbacks in the first two weeks before hosting the Bucs who were in the midst of a disastrous start that saw them recently release the quarterback that started against New England. Their most impressive victory came last week against the Falcons in Atlanta where coach Belichick completely handed Mike Smith his jock strap when it came to in game adjustments and strategy. I think this is clearly their second biggest test.

This looks like a pretty good game on paper and I would lean towards the under based on some of the offensive struggles I’ve seen from both teams at times this year. The weather may aid that as well as rain could creep in come game time. Keep an eye on the injuries though, if the Bengals are still lacking most of their secondary it becomes a pretty tricky situation and one I would likely pass on.

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Unbeatens face road traps

DENVER BRONCOS (4-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2) Line & Total: Denver -9 & 58.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7 & 57

The high-flying Broncos look to roll past their third NFC East opponent in four weeks when they visit the Cowboys on Sunday.

Denver has won its four games by an average of 22.0 PPG and leads the NFL in scoring (44.8 PPG), total offense (484 YPG), kick returns (36.8 average) and third-down conversion rate (55.3%). QB Peyton Manning has thrown for an amazing 1,470 yards (368 YPG), 16 TD and 0 INT so far. Dallas has scored 33.5 PPG in two home wins, but was outscored 20-0 in the final 30 minutes of its loss at San Diego last week. The Broncos have four straight SU wins (3-1 ATS) in this series, beating the Cowboys 17-10 when they last met in 2009 in Denver. The Broncos are 13-2 ATS (87%) when favored over the past two seasons, but only 3-12 ATS (20%) after scoring 30+ points in three straight games since 1992. Dallas is 12-3 ATS (80%) at home after allowing 300+ passing yards since 1992, but the team is also 1-8 ATS (11%) at home after an ATS defeat in the past three years.

Denver has scored at least 37 points and gained at least 416 yards in all four games this season, going 3-0-1 ATS. It all starts with QB Peyton Manning, who is in the midst of a legendary season, completing 75% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt, both of which are career highs. He's been sacked only five times which is why the team has done so well on third downs, and why the Broncos also lead the NFL with 28.3 first downs per game. Manning has spread the ball evenly to each of his top three wideouts, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, who have 37, 36 and 36 targets, respectively. Thomas has the most catches (29) and receiving yards (393) while Welker leads in touchdowns (six). Decker had a quiet season opener (two catches, 32 yards), but has hauled in 22 catches for 308 yards over the past three games. TE Julius Thomas is also enjoying a breakout season with 18 catches on his 23 targets, and his 7.2 yards after catch per reception is tied for second-best among all NFL tight ends. The Denver ground game has been average with 119 rushing YPG (15th in NFL) and 4.0 yards per carry (18th in NFL), but RB Knowshon Moreno (238 yards on 5.2 YPC, 3 TD) has been the standout ahead of RB Ronnie Hillman (120 yards on 4.8 YPC, 1 TD) and struggling rookie RB Montee Ball (123 yards on 3.2 YPC, 0 TD, 2 fumbles). Defensively, the Broncos have really stifled the run with a league-best 74 rushing YPG allowed. Part of that has to do with getting big leads that force their opponents to throw the football in catch-up mode, but their run-stop unit has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry, good for fourth-best in the NFL. The pass defense has been the team's one true weakness, allowing 316 passing YPG (3rd-worst in NFL) on 7.3 yards per attempt (9th-worst in league). This secondary will certainly get a boost once star CB Champ Bailey returns from a foot injury, but he's still listed as questionable for Week 5.

In the preseason, it was believed that Dallas wanted to run the football more and would do just that with new play caller Bill Callahan. Although the team has rushed for a hefty 4.6 yards per carry (7th in NFL), it ranks a subpar 19th in the league in rushing YPG (102). RB DeMarco Murray has been the featured back with 72 of his team's 89 rushing attempts (81%), gaining 356 yards on 4.9 YPC and 1 TD. While QB Tony Romo has done a superb job of not turning the ball over (1 INT in 152 pass attempts), the Cowboys are currently 21st in the NFL in passing yards (239 YPG) and 22nd in yards per attempt (6.3). This conservative passing game has produced career-low yards per reception rates for each of the top three receivers, WR Dez Bryant (12.3 average), TE Jason Witten (9.1 average) and WR Miles Austin (8.3 average). Austin missed last week's game with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to suit up for this game as well. Rookie WR Terrance Williams will likely start in his place despite losing a key fumble close to the goal-line in last week's loss to the Chargers. Defensively, the Cowboys have been a near mirror image of the Broncos, stuffing the run effectively (78 rushing YPG, 3rd in NFL), but getting burned through the air for 305 passing YPG (6th-worst in league) and 7.2 yards per attempt (23rd in NFL). The Dallas D has been helped by a smaller time of possession than most (27:53, 6th in NFL) and a great third-down conversion defense (33%, 4th in NFL).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-0) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-1) Line & Total: Seattle -3 & 44
Opening Line & Total: Seahawks -3 & 43.5

The Seahawks try to maintain momentum after an improbable victory in Houston when they visit the surging Colts on Sunday.

Last week, Seattle erased a 20-6 deficit midway through the fourth quarter and won 23-20 in overtime despite allowing 476 total yards. Indy had quite a two-game road trip it just completed, beating the 49ers and Jaguars by a combined 64 to 10 score. The Colts rushed for 154 yards in the win, marking their fourth straight game with at least 125 rushing yards, but RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) is doubtful, as he may need season-ending surgery. These teams split eight meetings since 1991 with Indianapolis winning 34-17 the last time they met in 2009. Both clubs have hugely favorable trends, as the Seahawks are 8-0 ATS when facing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons and 9-0 ATS versus good rushing teams (4.5+ YPC) in the past three years. The Colts are not only 8-1 ATS (89%) after playing on the road in the past two seasons, but are 11-2 ATS (85%) coming off a road blowout win of 21+ points since 1992.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson has completed 62% of his passes for 787 yards (8.2 YPA), 6 TD and 3 INT, but four of those passing scores came against the lowly Jaguars. Last week Wilson completed just 12-of-23 passes, but was able to gain 77 yards on 10 carries, including some key scampers late in that game. Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch (308 yards on 3.9 YPC, 4 TD) have been mostly responsible for the team's 144 rushing YPG (5th in NFL) that has led to a strong 32:50 time of possession (5th in league). But the Seahawks remain a balanced football team with 208 passing YPG on 8.0 YPA (6th in NFL). Wilson has used all of his receivers, but in different ways. WR Sidney Rice leads the club with 21 targets and is tied with TE Zach Miller for 2 TD catches, while WR Golden Tate has a team-high 13 receptions and WR Doug Baldwin leads them with 216 receiving yards. Seattle has been too sloppy with the football though, committing two turnovers in each of its past two games. While the defense has bailed them out with 13 takeaways (11 in past three games), the Seahawks must be concerned with how their vaunted secondary was picked apart by Matt Schaub for 355 yards on 7.2 YPA. But even with the subpar showing in Week 5, Seattle still ranks fifth in the NFL in both total defense (300 YPG) and yards per play allowed (4.7), while placing second in both scoring defense (11.8 PPG) and scoring margin (+15.5 PPG).

Colts QB Andrew Luck has had a decent second season so far with 64% completions for 915 yards (7.2 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT, while also rushing for 7.9 yards per carry and a pair of touchdowns. Although his team won two straight road tilts, Luck is much more comfortable at home where he's 8-2 with 15 TD and 6 INT in his career, compared to 6-4 with 13 TD and 14 INT on the road. Luck continues to seek out WR Reggie Wayne the most (33 targets), but he hasn't forgotten about WR T.Y. Hilton (29 targets), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (20 targets) and TE Coby Fleener (18 targets). With RB Ahmad Bradshaw not likely to suit up, RBs Trent Richardson and Donald Brown will have the unenviable task of trying to run through a fierce Seahawks defense. Richardson has rushed for just 2.9 YPC in his two games with the Colts, but Brown is averaging a hefty 9.2 YPC on his 13 rushing attempts. The key in this game will be ball control and not making mistakes, something this offense has thrived on all season with a 32:42 time of possession (6th in NFL) and a total of just two turnovers in four contests. Defensively, Indy has forced eight turnovers so far while generating an excellent pass rush with 11% sacks per attempt (3rd in league). The Colts defense has been on the field for just 27:17 (4th-fewest in NFL) leading to a mere 12.8 PPG allowed (4th in league) and 17.3 first downs allowed (5th-fewest in NFL).

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-0) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-1) Line & Total: New Orleans -1.5 & 50
Opening Line & Total: Chicago -2 & 48

The struggling Bears defense faces another major test when the undefeated Saints pay a visit to Soldier Field on Sunday.

Chicago has allowed 278 passing YPG on 8.0 yards per attempt this season, which doesn’t bode well facing New Orleans QB Drew Brees, who is averaging 359 passing YPG with 10 TD so far this season. The Bears defense does lead the NFL with 14 takeaways though, and the offense has been rolling all season with 31.8 PPG and 352 total YPG despite turning the ball over four times in two of their past three games. Chicago’s four-game series win streak ended in 2011 at the Superdome when Brees threw for 270 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-13 thrashing. While the Bears are relatively healthy for Sunday, the Saints are coming off a short week and could be missing RB Mark Ingram (toe), WR Lance Moore (hand), CB Keenan Lewis (leg) and S Roman Harper (knee). New Orleans is 11-2 ATS (85%) versus poor passing defenses (235+ passing YPG allowed) in the past three seasons, but is just 2-4 ATS (33%) in its past six road games. Chicago is 7-3 SU in its past 10 home games, but is only 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight contests at Soldier Field. The Bears are also a dismal 4-19 ATS (17%) after scoring 25+ points in two straight games since 1992.

Drew Brees is a big reason why his Saints rank second in the NFL in time of possession (34:16) and fourth in total offense (420 total YPG). He has completed 67% of his passes for 1,434 yards on 8.6 yards per attempt, numbers which all rank among the top-four quarterbacks in the league. The one negative is that Brees has absorbed 12 sacks in his four games. TE Jimmy Graham continues to be nearly impossible to cover. He already has 27 catches (on 42 targets) for 458 yards and 6 TD. He has scored a touchdown in all four games and has a current streak of three games of 100+ receiving yards. RB Darren Sproles also topped the century mark last week with 114 yards on seven catches (16.3 average), while scoring both on the ground and through the air. Despite the Saints' potent passing attack, their run game has been dismal with 81 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) on 3.4 yards per carry (27th in league). This lack of a reliable short-yardage back is why New Orleans possesses a poor red-zone efficiency (44%, 26th in NFL) and goal-to-go efficiency (57%, T-24th in league). Four rushers have between 16 and 29 carries, with RB Pierre Thomas the only player above 100 yards (101) and rookie RB Khiry Robinson having the best average with 4.7 YPC. The Saints defense has undergone a truly remarkable turnaround from last season when they allowed an NFL-record 440 total YPG. Under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, that number has been trimmed to 305 YPG this season, good for 6th-best in the NFL. The key to this improvement has been a league-leading 25:43 defensive time of possession and 16.8 first downs per game allowed (4th in NFL). The Saints have also produced 10 takeaways already this season, including four in their Monday night win.

Jay Cutler has been very comfortable in the offense of new head coach Marc Trestman, as he has received much better protection from his offensive line. After being sacked 2.83 times per game from 2010 to 2012, Cutler has hit the deck just six times in four contests (1.50 per game) in 2013. However, the veteran signal caller regressed last week with three sacks taken and three interceptions thrown in the loss at Detroit. But Cutler will be happy to return home where he's completed 68% of his passes for 534 yards (7.5 YPA) and 5 TD to go along with 3 INT. While WR Brandon Marshall is his top receiver in targets (41), catches (27), receiving yards (348) and yards per catch (12.9), three others have also seen more than 25 targets this season, WR Alshon Jeffery (32 targets), TE Martellus Bennett (32 targets) and RB Matt Forte (26 targets). Forte has also done an excellent job carrying the football with 320 yards on 4.6 YPC and three scores. On the defensive side of the ball, Chicago's aggressive defense has forced at least three turnovers in every game this season, but in doing so, continues to give up too many big plays. The Bears have surrendered 8.0 yards per pass attempt (4th-most in NFL) and 6.1 yards per play (5th-most in league). Not allowing the Saints playmakers to get deep down the field will be a key in containing this potent offense.

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Week 5 NFL

Eagles (1-3) @ Giants (0-4) — B
oth teams in freefall; winless Giants have 12 turnovers (-9) in four games, have been outscored 100-21 in last five halves and have only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, as banged-up OL can’t open holes or protect immobile QB Manning. Big Blue has been inside opponents’ 20-yard line once in last two games. Philly has been outscored 131-74 in last seven halves, as gimmicky fast-break offense flopped because defense can’t keep other team off field- they’ve allowed first down on 21 of last 41 3rd plays) and special teams allowed two TDs last week in Denver. Eagles are 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games as road underdog (1-1 this year); since ’09, Giants are 10-18-1 as a home favorite. Philly won eight of last ten series games, splitting last four; their 42-7 loss here LY was their first in last six visits to Swamp. Home favorites in divisional games are 9-4 vs spread so far this season. Three of four Eagle games went over the total.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1) — Unbeaten KC was 2-14 LY, so great story being written by Reid, canned after 14 (mostly good) years in Philly; Chiefs (+9) have 12 takeaways already, have given up only four TDs on 51 drives, allowing opponent inside its red zone four times (one TD, two FGs). On offense, they’ve run ball for 120.8 ypg, converted 24-59 (40.7%) of 3rd down plays, using scatback McCluster on key plays. Titans are off to solid 3-1 start, but lost QB Locker (hip) last week; in steps veteran Fitzpatrick, making 68th (23-41-1 W-L as starter Rams/Bills) NFL start, so he’s decent backup. Tennessee is also +9 in turnovers, with no giveaways in four games. Home side lost four of last six series games; Chiefs split two visits here, with last one in ’04. AFC West teams are 11-2 vs spread outside its division, 6-1 when favored; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside its division, 2-4 as an underdog (0-2 as HU). All four Chief games stayed under the total.

Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1) — Well-coached Miami is 7-3 vs spread under Philbin in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite (3-2 under Philbin). Fish lost first game Monday night, getting torched by Brees’ (30-39/397) passing- they won only home game so far on last-minute TD vs Falcons. Flacco threw five picks in 23-20 loss at Buffalo last week; Ravens covered once in last five games as a road dog- they’re 0-2 on foreign soil this year, converting just 11-38 on 3rd down—think Flacco misses Boldin/Pitta? Would expect Harbaugh to try and run ball more; they had only nine carries for 24 yards at Buffalo, with 54 dropbacks. Baltimore won last three series games by 14-18-16 points; they’ve won last two visits here, after losing four of previous five. Eight of last ten series totals were 38 or less. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Raven games stayed under.

Jaguars (0-4) @ Rams (1-3) — Immense pressure on disappointing Rams to win this game, after getting smoked last three weeks, trailing 21-0/24-0/24-3 in three games; St Louis is double digit favorite for first time since ’04- they have total of 122 rushing yards in last three games, so expect them to try to establish some type of run game early on, vs Jaguar defense that allowed 177 rushing ypg in its last three tilts. Jax has been outscored 75-8 in first half of games, and that includes safety they got on blocked punt for first score of season. Rams won two of last three series games, with home side winning all three, all decided by a FG. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread this season; AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside their division. Three of four Jaguar games stayed under total; three of four St Louis games went over. Jags owner Kahn tried to buy Rams but Kroenke had first dibs, as former minority (40%) owner. 

Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2) — You get feeling Brady could have Tweeter from Varsity Blues as a WR and Pats would still score 30 points; they’ve only turned ball over once in last three games (+5) while converting 13-28 on third down in last two games. Unbeaten NE’s run defense will miss NT Willfork (achilles); they’ve allowed total of 155 rushing yards in last two games. Bengals scored 20-34 points in winning their two home games; they’re 4-2-1 in last seven games as home favorites, after being 3-13 in 16 games prior to that. Cincy lost field position battle in all four games, in part due to converting just 8 of last 25 third down plays. Pats are 7-2 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less points; Bengals are 16-8-1 in their last 25. Bengals lost four in row and seven of last eight series games, allowing 36.3 ppg in last four. Three of four NE games stayed under total, as Patriots allowed only one TD, four FGs on opponents’ last eight red zone drives.

Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1) — Unbeaten Seattle was down 20-3 at half in Houston last week, but defense shut Texans out in second half, scored tying TD with pick-6 in last 3:00 before they won with FG in OT, their ninth straight regular season win. Hawks ran for average of 169 ypg last three weeks, with mobile QB Wilson doing as much damage with his legs as his arm. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games but lost two of three visits here; they’re 3-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year (won 12-7/23-20). Indy allowed one TD on 21 drives in sweeping road swing, including impressive 27-7 win at SF; they’re 7-4 as home dogs in post-Manning era, 8-2 SU at home under Pagano. Three of four Indy games stayed under the total. NFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside its division; NFC West teams are 7-4, 4-1 when favored. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this season.

Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2) — Green Bay won 14 of last 15 series games (Rodgers didn’t play in loss), taking last four by average score of 31-24; Lions have lost 22 games in a row in Wisconsin, 19 in row at Lambeau, with last three all by 7 or less points. Last Lion win at Lambeau was 1991. Pack won its last four post-bye games, scoring 31.5 ppg, but they’re 1-2 this season, despite scoring 11 TDs on 34 drives- they lost last game in Cincinnati on fumble return for TD by Bengals in last 4:00. Detroit scored 27+ points in all three of its wins; they’ve averaged 7.4+ yards/pass attempt in three of four games. Lions had four TDs last week; one by defense, other three on drives of 51 or less yards, so defense/special teams are creating easier chances for what is a good offense. Bush returned to spark run game (159 yards) last week (76.3/first three games). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-5 vs spread this year, 3-3 if spread is more than five points. All three Packer games went over the total.

Saints (4-0) @ Bears (3-1) — Curious to see Saints in second road (outdoor) game; offense was dominant (11 TDs/31 drives) in three home wins, but they were lucky to win 16-14 on stormy Week 2 day in Tampa, kicking three FGs on four trips in Bucs’ red zone, plus throwing a pick-6. Lack of running game (81.3 ypg) could hurt here by prolific Bear team scoring 31.8 ppg (9 TDs on last 37 drives, plus three defensive TDs in last three games). Chicago has 3+ takeaways in all four games (+5). NO is 9-5 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points, 6-4 in last ten non-divisional road games. Home side won last five series games with average total in last four, 51.3; Saints lost last6 three visits here by 25-8-3 points. NFC South road teams are 0-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 3-4-1 outside their division. All four Chicago games went over total, with average total, 60.3; three of four New Orleans games stayed under total.

Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2) — Carolina won seven of last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here; Rivera is 0-2 in post-bye games, losing 30-2/19-14. Panthers are 5-14 in first half of season in his tenure, 9-7 in second half. Carolina’s two losses are by total of six points, as Bills drove length of field in last minute to nip Carolina 24-23 in its only road game. Arizona beat Detroit in its only home game, despite giving up a defensive TD; three of their four games were decided by 4 or less points. Cardinals 2-0 in games with spreads of 3 or less points this year, after being 4-10-1 in last 15 such games under Whisenhunt. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 0-4 vs spread this season; NFC West teams are 7-4 outside their division. Arizona struggled on offense (two TDs/24 drives) in splitting pair on road last two weeks; they’re 7-34 on 3rd down last three games, but Fitzgerald had strong half last week, as Redbirds rallied from 10-0 down at half to win at Tampa.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3) — San Diego won last three series games by 12-8-3 points; they’ve won eight of last nine visits here, with only loss in ’10. Three of Bolts’ four games were won by exactly three points; Rivers seems rejuvenated (25-50 on 3rd down, only two INTs), averaging 8.6/6.7/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last three games. Flynn was disappointing (18-31/217, two turnovers) in first Oakland start; Raiders are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog- they’ve had only 13 plays of 20+ yards in first four games. Chargers scored 28+ points in three of four games, and lost fourth game in last minute in Nashville- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as a road favorite. Divisional home dogs are 4-2 vs spread this season. Three of four Charger games went over total; three of four Oakland games stayed under. Game has been pushed back to 11:30 ET Sunday night because of time needed to switch from baseball configuration to football.

Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2) — Dallas plays Tampa 2 defense which Colts ran when Dungy coached there, so Manning practiced against it for seven years; Rivers was 35-42/392 against Cowboys last week, what will #18 do here? Chargers averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt vs Dallas, Eli Manning averaged 9.5 in opener; Pokes will need to play their A game to stay in this one. Denver is a juggernaut right now, scoring 39.8 ppg in first four games (20 TDs on 44 drives, only eight 3/outs, with three special teams TDs as well). Broncos wear defenses out; they’ve scored 31+ second half points in three of four games and have 13 TDs, one FG in 17 red zone drives. Dallas scored 67 points in winning its two home games this year; they’re 4-2 as home dogs since ’06, 2-1 under Garrett. Broncos are 7-2 as road favorites under Fox, 14-2 as favorites with Manning at QB. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 1-4 if getting points.

Texans (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2) — Schaub has thrown pick-6 in three straight games, including horrific one last week in last 3:00 while Houston was in Seattle territory nursing 20-13 lead; brutal loss for Texans, who led 20-3 at half and have struggled beating the better teams. Houston has only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games; they had 6-0 lead at Baltimore in Week 3 before giving up TDs on offense/special teams in 90-second span, so they’ve been beating themselves. 49ers scored 34-35 points in two wins, 3-7 in two losses; they turned ball over seven times (-6) in two losses. Niners are 12-4-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside the division, 2-4 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. Home side won only two games in series, with both games decided by FG. Non-divisional home favorites of 7+ points are 7-4 vs spread. Three of four Houston games went over the total.

Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3) —
Jets are making way too many mistakes to win, and its not all the rookie QB; they’ve turned ball over 12 times (-10)  and in last three games, they committed 38 penalties for 300 yards, which helped create field position deficits of 16-9-18 yards. Two takeaways in four games ( none in last three games) isn’t good. Atlanta failed in last-minute red zone drives on offense in Weeks 1,4, on defense in Week 3, or else they could just as easily be 4-0; Smith is 19-5 vs spread coming off loss, but something is missing with Atlanta, which is 22-12-1 as home favorite under Smith. Would expect Atlanta to try and run ball more; they’ve run ball more than 16 times in only one of four games with Jackson out of lineup. Jets are 7-12 as road underdogs under Rex Ryan, 1-7 in last eight as a non-divisional road dog. Atlanta was torched (9.2/10.2 yards/attempt) by two quality QBs they faced (Brees/Brady) but Smith isn’t in that category—Falcons held Bradford/Tannehill to 6.4/4.9.

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

Sunday's NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)

New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.

Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.


* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 53.5)

The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.


* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 43.5)

Seattle leads the NFC with a plus-seven turnover differential and has notched multiple interceptions in three consecutive games. The Seahawks hope to have defensive end Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) available after he was removed from the field via stretcher with a back injury against Houston.

Veteran sack master Robert Mathis is wreaking havoc after a three-sack outing against the Jaguars and is tied for the NFL lead with 7.5. Indianapolis has a plus-six margin in takeaways and is allowing 12.8 points per game, fourth-best in the NFL.

LINE: Opening Seattle -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 43 to 43.5.



* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 22-8 in Colts last 30 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Pro Bowler Ray Rice has been held in check this season, rushing for just 89 yards on 30 carries. While Rice's numbers have dipped, wideout Torrey Smith continues to benefit from the departure of Anquan Boldin to San Francisco by amassing a career-high 166 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Bills.

While Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked 12 times, that number pales in comparison to the league-high 18 that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has endured. While coach Joe Philbin dismisses the premise of a disconnect between Tannehill and offseason addition Mike Wallace, there is no denying that the two have struggled to get on the same page. The electric and outspoken wideout has just 15 receptions for 176 yards this season

LINE: Opening Miami -3.5 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 42.5 to 43.5.

WEATHER: Mid 80s, 30% chance of thunder showers, winds SSE 11 mph.


* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph


* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.

WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.


* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Several factors have contributed into the Chiefs' stunning start to the season, but strong second-half performances are at the top of the list. Kansas City is outscoring opponents 34-10 after the break, and has put together clock-killing drives in the fourth quarter of each of its last three games to protect slim leads.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been thrust into the No. 1 role after regular starter Jake Locker suffered a hip injury in the win over the Jets and will miss several weeks. Fitzpatrick appeared in 55 games with the Buffalo Bills before being cut in March, showing that the 30-year-old is no stranger to the starting role.

LINE: Opened Chiefs -3 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 39 to 38.5.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 79% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.


* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5, 41)

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. Among the positives on the Jacksonville side this week is the return of standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with a worse rushing attack than Jacksonville, as the Rams average only 47.3 yards on the ground. With virtually no complimentary ground game against the 49ers, Sam Bradford completed only 19-of-41 passes, was sacked five times and turned the ball over twice.

LINE: Opened Rams -14 and moved to -11.5. Total moved 42 to 41.



* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Rams last seven home games.

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

Sunday's NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 41.5)

After losing its first two games by a total of six points, Carolina turned in a dominant performance against the Giants, rolling up 402 total yards and holding New York to 150. Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

The Arizona defense has been dominant against the run - ranking second in the league - but will have its work cut out against a Panthers team averaging 151 yards on the ground, though unit should be bolstered by the return of linebacker Daryl Washington after he missed the first four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Arizona +1. Total moved 42 to 41.5.



* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

Denver is putting up 44.8 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. That offense is masking some potential issues on the other side of the ball, where the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in total defense. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

Dallas is down two defensive starters in linebacker Justin Durant (groin) and defensive end George Selvie (concussion), who are uncertain for Sunday’s game. That puts even more pressure on Tony Romo and the offense to put up points. Romo is completing 72.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception but could be missing WR Miles Austin (hamstring) questionable.

LINE: Opened Denver -7 and moved as high as -8.5. Total moved 54 to 56.



* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 41.5)

Houston ranks second in the AFC in total offense (410.3 yards per game) and leads the NFL in total defense (254.3) but is minus-4 in turnover margin. The Texans expect linebacker Brian Cushing to clear the concussion protocol on Friday and be eligible to play after leaving last week's game in the third quarter.

Colin Kaepernick has been limited in the ground game but rebounded from a pair of poor passing games to throw two touchdown passes against St. Louis. The 49ers lead the NFC in total defense (299.8 yards per game) despite playing without star linebacker Patrick Willis (groin) last week, but they plan to have Willis back Sunday.

LINE: Opened Houston -6.5 and moved to -6. Total moved 42.5 to 41.5.

WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 6 mph.


* Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* 49ers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in 49ers last eight home games.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4, 45)

San Diego and its already-suspect defense lost linebacker Dwight Freeney for the rest of the season with a torn quadriceps last week. Despite missing WR Malcom Floyd (neck), QB Philip Rivers and the passing game is ranked fifth in the NFL as receiver Eddie Royal (five) and tight end Antonio Gates (two) have already combined for seven receiving touchdowns.

Raiders RB Darren McFadden is questionable with a hamstring injury and RB Marcel Reece is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Their possible absence will force third-stringer Rashad Jennings into action and put a bigger onus on the unproven shoulders of Pryor, who was fairly impressive throwing for 624 yards and rushing for 198 more in his first three starts of the season.

LINE: Opened Chargers -6 and moved to -4. Total moved 44 to 45.

WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 2 mph.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 5 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The last time the New England Patriots were 5-0 to start a season, they finished 16-0 (2007). The are in Cincy to face the Bengals with the line as a Pick.

- Speaking of those Bengals, they have lost seven of eight versus the Pats and have lost all four with Tom Brady under center.

- Where were you when....the Detroit Lions last won in Green Bay? The Pack have won 21-straight football games at Lambeau versus the Lions and are 15-5-1 ATS in that stretch. The last Lions victory at Green Bay was in 1991.

- Despite Green Bay's home dominance over the Lions, Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high 520 yards at Lambeau in the regular season finale tow seasons ago.

- The Seattle Seahawks defense has seven interceptions on the season and have recorded multi-INT games in three straight. The Seahawks are 1-point road faves in Indy Sunday.

- The Colts defense is 29th in the NFL allowing opponents to score on 75 percent of their trips inside the red zone.

- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has completed just three-of-nine passes of 20 yards or more this season. Only the Chiefs, Jags and Lions have completed fewer.

- The Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens with a total of 43.5 Sunday. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

- The hot New Orleans Saints are in Chicago to face the Bears. The two teams have combined to play over the total in five straight meetings in the Windy City. Sunday's total is 50.

- Drew Brees' 59.4 percent completion percentage against the Chicago Bears is his second lowest against any opponent. Only a 57.4 clip against Washington is worse.

- The dog is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. Philly is currently a 1-point road dog Sunday.

- The Kansas City Chiefs are the top consensus play at 74 percent. The Chiefs are 2.5-point road faves at Tennessee.

- The Chiefs at Titans matchups looks to be a defensive battle. The Chiefs allow a league-low 10.3 points per game and the Titans rank seventh, allowing 17.3.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams have faced each other three times. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in those three meetings.

- The Jags' 31 points scored is the lowest - by 13 - in the league thus far.

- Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

- The Denver Broncos are in Dallas Sunday as 7.5-point faves. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

- 49ers S Donte Whitner has changed his name to Donte Hitner. This is a thing that happened.

- The Houston Texans struggle against the spread in Week 5 for some reason. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Week 5 games. They'll give it a shot Sunday as 6-point road dogs in San Fran Sunday night.

- Because of Sunday Oakland A's playoff game, the Chargers/Raiders game has switched t 11:35 p.m. ET Sunday night.

- The Chargers have won 16 of 19 meetings with the Raiders and are 4.5-point road faves for this late tilt.

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David

Week 4 Recap

The ‘over’ produced a 9-6 record last week thanks to handful of shootouts in the late afternoon games and primetime matchups, which is turning into a common theme this season. The early games (1:00 p.m. ET) have been leaning ‘under’ recently while the second set and late-night battles have had its fair share of high-scoring results.  On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 32-31.

Denver, Chicago and Minnesota are the only teams to see all four of their games go ‘over’ this season. On the other side of that spectrum, Tampa Bay and Kansas City have both watched the ‘under’ go 4-0.

Line Moves

After four weeks of action in the NFL, the house has gotten the better of the betting public but I would say that total bettors have had the upper hand. Last week, we had five games that saw their total move by 1½ points or more, either up or down. If you followed the move, you would’ve went 4-1 (80%). On the season, the moves are 15-3 (83%). I only post the moves from CRIS, a major offshore sportsbook, who releases their numbers on Sunday. Every Saturday, we compare open numbers to current and provide you the information. Personally, I’d be surprised to see the results improve this week, especially with seven games receiving extra attention.

Kansas City at Tennessee: Line opened 41 and dropped to 38½
Jacksonville at St. Louis: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41
Detroit at Green Bay: Line opened 51½ and jumped to 53½
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 55 and dropped to 53½
San Diego at Oakland: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45½
Denver at Dallas: Line opened 54 and jumped to 56
Houston at San Francisco: Line opened 42½ and dropped to 41

Early Season Trends handicapper Marc Lawrence pointed out some great total trends that have developed in the first quarter of the season. He said, “The best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 to the OVER. The best UNDER situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 to the UNDER.”

Based on Marc’s homework…

The matchups that fit the OVER trends in Week 5 are listed below:

Jacksonville at St. Louis
Seattle at Indianapolis
Denver at Dallas
Houston at San Francisco
N.Y. Jets at Atlanta

The matchups that fit the UNDER trends in Week 5 are listed below:

Kansas City at Tennessee
Baltimore at Miami
New England at Cincinnati
New Orleans at Chicago
Carolina at Arizona
Buffalo at Cleveland (Note - The Browns beat the Bills 37-24 on Thursday and the ‘over’ easily cashed)

Divisional Trends

Detroit at Green Bay: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meaningful games between this pair and we stress the word meaningful because the lone ‘over’ occurred in Week 17 of the 2012 season. If you don’t recall, it’s when then Packers backup QB Matt Flynn diced up the Lions 45-41 in a wild shootout. The Packers are off the Bye and if you’re not aware, head coach Mike McCarthy has gone 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with a week of rest in the regular season. During that span, the ‘under’ has gone 5-2.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. Philadelphia has scored 7, 19, 17 and 16 points during this span but most would expect that to change with the new fast-paced approach of Eagles head coach Chip Kelly. Make a note that the Eagles (34.5) and Giants (36.5) own the worst two scoring defensive units in the league.

San Diego at Oakland: (See Below)

Under the Lights

After watching the Cleveland-Buffalo shootout this past Thursday, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six consecutive primetime games. On the season, the ‘over’ is 10-4 (71%) in games played under the lights. Due to a time change, bettors have three matchups to follow this weekend.

San Francisco at Houston: Even though the AFC-NFC encounters this season have been high-scoring, I’m leaning more to the ‘under’ in this spot and here’s why. Houston (254.3 YPG, 26.3 PPG) and San Francisco (299.8 YPG, 23.8 PPG) are ranked first and third in total defense yet they’ve been allowing points. Those scoring numbers include defensive and special teams touchdowns. Houston has given up four already this season, three in the last two weeks which resulted losses. You can’t handicap turnovers but if the Texans and 49ers stick to their ground games and don’t make mistakes, a low-scoring affair is in the works.

San Diego at Oakland: Due to the Oakland Athletics playing Game 2 on Saturday night, the Coliseum wouldn’t be ready for action for Sunday afternoon so this game will be played at 11:35 p.m. ET. For bettors, it gives you one last chance to press or chase. The total has gone 1-1 in each of the regular season meetings that past three years. QB Terrelle Pryor (concussion) is expected to return for Oakland but is he really a different maker? RB Darren McFaden is ‘doubtful’ and that certainly doesn’t help. The Chargers offense and QB Philip Rivers garner most of the exposure in San Diego but the defense deserves some notice too. The team has surrendered 41 points the last two weeks, seven coming late against Tennessee in Week 3, plus Dallas only put up 20 points last Sunday and one score was a pick-six touchdown.

N.Y. Jets at Atlanta: The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their last three and 2-0 at the Georgia Dome this season. Some of those results were lucky, especially last week’s against New England, which saw 30 combined points scored in the fourth quarter. Based on what we’ve seen in two road games, rookie QB Geno Smith has only been able to muster up 10 and 13 points. In those games, he’s accounted for seven turnovers (5 INTs) and been sacked nine times. I wouldn’t expect a change anytime soon but those mistakes can lead to short tracks for Atlanta’s offense or even defensive touchdowns.

Fearless Predictions

Anytime a game goes into overtime, the ‘over’ more than likely cashes and that’s been the case this season. Unfortunately for me, I’ve been on the ‘under’ in both of those games and coincidentally Houston was involved each time. Including those losses, our Best Bets are 4-2 (67%) on the season. We did snap the Team Total streak (1-2) last week but our Teaser play was hurt by the shootout in London. On the season, we’re down 30 cents ($30). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-St. Louis 41
Best Under: New England-Cincinnati 45
Best Team Total: Over Jacksonville 14½

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 32 Jacksonville-St. Louis
Over 33½ Carolina-Arizona
Under 53 N.Y. Jets-Atlanta

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Re: NFL Football Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 6

Week 5 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Chiefs (-3, 38½) at Titans

Kansas City: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
Tennessee: 3-1, 3-0-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Chiefs dominated the winless Giants, 31-7, the third victory by double-digits this season. Kansas City has won all three games against NFC East opponents, while allowing 16 points in each of its four contests this season. The Titans cruised past the Jets as 3 ½-point favorites, 38-13, the fourth straight home victory since the end of last season.

Previous meeting result: Kansas City crushed Tennessee, 34-14 in December 2010 as four-point home favorites. Dwayne Bowe hauled in 153 yards receiving and one touchdown, while Chris Johnson was limited to 58 yards on the ground for the Titans. Tennessee has won each of the last two meetings with Kansas City at LP Field.

Betting notes: Since Week 10 of last season, the Chiefs are 10-1-1 to the 'under' the past 12 contests, including a 5-0-1 'under' mark on the highway. The Titans have cashed in just two of the last six opportunities in the home underdog role, while losing three of those games by double-digits.

Patriots (-1, 45) at Bengals

New England: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
Cincinnati: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS

Last week's results: New England put together another solid performance in a 30-23 road triumph at Atlanta last Sunday night. The Patriots cashed outright in their first underdog role of the season, while racking up 448 yards of offense to even up their ATS mark at 2-2. Cincinnati's roller-coaster season continued after getting shut down at Cleveland as short away favorites, 17-6. The Bengals gained only 266 yards of offense, while dropping to 0-2 on the highway.

Previous meeting result: The Patriots have won each of the last four matchups, including a 38-24 victory in the 2010 season opener as five-point home 'chalk.' New England dominated Cincinnati in each of the past two visits to Paul Brown Stadium, winning by 21 and 25 points.

Betting notes: New England has failed to cover four of the last six games in the road favorite role, but the Pats are 5-1 straight-up in this stretch. The Bengals have won five of their previous six home contests, while posting a 7-2 mark to the 'under' in the last nine games at Paul Brown Stadium.

Seahawks (-3, 44) at Colts

Seattle: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
Indianapolis: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS

Last week's results: Seattle rallied to stun Houston in overtime, 23-20, erasing a 20-3 deficit to cash as one-point road favorites. The Seahawks won in spite of being outgained by 206 yards, while covering nine of 10 games since last December. The Colts routed the hapless Jaguars, 37-3 for their second straight win, while outscoring their last two opponents, 64-10.

Previous meeting result: Indianapolis crushed Seattle at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2009 by a 34-17 count as 10-point favorites. The teams have split the last eight matchups since 1991, with a majority of those games coming when the Seahawks played in the AFC.

Betting notes: Seattle is seeking road wins in successive weeks for the first time since 2007, while posting a 5-10 SU record on the highway under Pete Carroll when coming off a victory. The Colts won and covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog last season.

Saints (-1, 50½) at Bears

New Orleans: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
Chicago: 3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Saints took care of the previously unbeaten Dolphins on Monday night, 38-17 as seven-point home favorites. New Orleans has cruised to three victories at the Superdome, while limiting each of its four opponents to 17 points or less. The Bears were stymied early in last Sunday's 40-32 defeat at Detroit, as Chicago trailed by as many as 24 points. Chicago turned the ball over four times, while hitting the 'over' for the fourth time in four games.

Previous meeting result: The Bears have won each of the last three matchups against the Saints at Soldier Field, but New Orleans destroyed Chicago at the Superdome back in 2011. The Saints took care of the Bears, 30-13 in Week 2 of the '11 season, which included three touchdown passes by Drew Brees.

Betting notes: New Orleans owns a 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS record in the last seven games in the road favorite role, with the lone SU win/ATS loss coming at Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Bears have drilled the 'over' in six straight games since last December, while posting a 1-6-1 ATS record the past eight games at Soldier Field.

Broncos (-7½, 57½) at Cowboys

Denver: 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS
Dallas: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS

Last week's results: The Broncos' offense continues to look unstoppable after trouncing the Eagles, 52-20. Denver has topped the 37-point mark in all four games this season, while easily cashing the 'over' each time. The Cowboys blew a 21-10 lead in a 30-21 setback at San Diego last Sunday as a short road favorite, as Dallas hasn't been able to win consecutive games this season.

Previous meeting result: Denver rallied past Dallas as a short home underdog in 2009 by scoring the final 10 points of a 17-10 triumph. Even though these teams meet infrequently, the Broncos have won each of the last four matchups dating back to 1998.

Betting notes: The Broncos have cashed the 'over' in seven of the last eight games since Week 15 of last season, while winning seven consecutive road contests. The Cowboys have covered two of their last three opportunities as a home 'dog since 2010, but have lost each contest straight-up.

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