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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

BUFFALO (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 10/3/2013, 8:25 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road   
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

Week 5 NFL

Bills (2-2) @ Browns (2-2) —
Cleveland is 2-0 with Hoyer at QB, gaining 745 yards in two games, after gaining 550 in two games with Weeden under center; they’re still struggling to run ball (89 yards/30 carries last week) but they’ve averaged 5.3/6.0 per pass attempt with Hoyer (4.1/4.6 in first two games), and have five TDs in his six red zone drives (1 of 3 with Weeden)- they’ve converted 15-33 on 3rd down with Hoyer (5-29 in first two games). Buffalo lost only road game 27-20 to Jets despite +2 turnover margin; they’ve run ball for 120+ yards in all four games and have 11 takeaways (+4) in four games. Bills are 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road underdog, just as Browns are 4-10-1 in last 15 as home favorites. Teams split six series games, with average total in last five, 26.0. AFC East underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-2 on road; AFC North favorites are 0-3 outside the division. Three of four Cleveland games stayed under the total.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

Cleveland opened some eyes by winning at Minnesota in Week 3 and made a loud statement this past weekend defeating Cincinnati 17-6 as 3.5 point home underdogs behind QB Brian Hoyer's 25-for-38 performance with 2 majors. Meanwhile, Buffalo defense picking Flacco off five times Sunday upended Baltimore 23-20 as 3 point home pups. Both squads have a slew of sports betting daemons to overcome when they collide Thursday night. Browns gunning for their second three game winning streak since the 2010 campaign are 1-3 SU/ATS last four tries at a 3-game win streak, 0-3 SU/ATS at home following a win as a home underdog and have a 1-7 SU/ATS home skid the last eight times they held an opponent to seven or less points the previous game. Buffalo looking to record back-2-back wins have not responded well after a victory posting a 1-9 (2-7-1 ATS) last ten trying for two consecutive W's and are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS on the road after a home win as underdog. So, which one of these teams reverses the sports betting funk ?? We'll venture Browns leave Thursday night with the cash as road underdogs have not done well in these Thursday night affairs the past five years posting a 15-21-1 mark against-the-oddsmaker and that Bills are 1-5-1 ATS as road underdogs of 4 or less.

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Thursday Night Football Betting: Bills at Browns

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-4, 40.5)

What had the makings of a lost season has evolved into a remarkable turnaround for the Cleveland Browns, who will seek their third consecutive victory when they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Browns appeared to have raised the surrender flag after losing their first two games and trading away star running back Trent Richardson. Instead, third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer has guided Cleveland to two straight wins and into a tie atop the AFC North.

The Bills expected some growing pains with rookie E.J. Manuel as their starting quarterback, but they are coming off an impressive 23-20 home victory over Baltimore to get back to .500. Manuel struggled against the defending Super Bowl champions, but Buffalo rode an impressive ground game and stout defensive performance to stifle the Ravens. The Bills and Browns have split six all-time meetings, with Buffalo prevailing 24-14 in Cleveland last season.

LINE: Cleveland opened as low as -3 and has moved to -4. The total opened at 41 and moved down to 40.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with a 61 percent chance of thunder showers and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE BILLS (2-2, 3-1 ATS): Buffalo has major injury concerns entering Thursday's matchup as running backs C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (knee) were both hurt after combining for 164 yards on the ground against Baltimore. Jackson said he has a torn MCL in his left knee but expects to play while X-rays revealed no structural damage for Spiller, who will test the ankle before Thursday's game. Manuel threw for only 167 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and a lost fumble, but Buffalo's defense collected four sacks and intercepted quarterback Joe Flacco five times, including two by rookie linebacker Kiko Alonso.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-2, 2-2 ATS): First-year coach Rob Chudzinski is not about to tamper with a winning formula, saying he will stick with Hoyer at quarterback - "Certainly he's been the spark that I had hoped for," the coach said - even though 2012 first-round pick Brandon Weeden is ready to return after missing two games with a thumb injury. Hoyer has developed a great chemistry with tight end Jordan Cameron, who had 10 catches in Sunday's 17-6 win over Cincinnati and has 16 receptions and four touchdowns in the past two games. Cleveland's defense limited the Bengals to 266 total yards, including 63 on the ground in 20 attempts.


* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bills last five vs. AFC.


1. The Bills held the Browns to 240 yards in last season's 24-16 win.

2. Hoyer is the first Cleveland QB to win his first two starts since Mark Rypien in 1994

3. Alonso is only the fourth linebacker in league history to intercept four passes in September, a list that includes Hall of Famer Jack Lambert and former Super Bowl MVP Chuck Howley.

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Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

Browns listed as favorites

BUFFALO BILLS (2-2) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2) Line: Cleveland -4 &40.5
Opening Line & Total: Browns -3 &41.5

Two teams coming off upset wins as home underdogs clash Thursday night when the Bills and Browns meet for the sixth time in seven years.

Buffalo held off the Ravens last week by a 23-20 score, outrushing them by an eye-popping 203 to 24 margin. Cleveland pulled off its second straight upset by frustrating the Bengals in a 17-6 victory. The Browns are 3-2 (SU and ATS) in this series since 2007, but Buffalo won the past two meetings, including a 24-14 victory last year propelled by Tashard Choice’s 91 rushing yards in relief of injured RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Both Spiller (ankle) and Jackson (knee) are hurt again, but both are expected to play, if only for a limited role, which could make Choice a prominent figure in this contest again too.

The Browns are 2-0 (SU and ATS) with 373 total YPG since QB Brian Hoyer has become the starter, while the defense is holding opponents to 4.3 yards per play and 79 rushing YPG this season. Although the Bills are 30-12 ATS (71%) after a win by three points or since 1992, they are also just 1-9 ATS on the road after playing a home game in the past three seasons. Despite the Browns' winning two in a row, they are just 2-5 ATS (29%) in their past seven games and 7-18 SU (28%) in their past 25 contests.
All four of Buffalo's games have been decided by seven points or less this season. The Bills lost by two to the Patriots and by seven to the Jets, while beating the Panthers by one on a last-second touchdown pass and topping the Ravens by three points last week. Despite the injuries to both RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson last week, the team still churned out 203 yards on 55 carries (3.7 YPC) for the game. Although Spiller gets the most carries on his team, he's gained just 3.5 YPC compared to Jackson's excellent 5.3 YPC average. Jackson has also been the more dangerous receiver with 13 catches for 113 yards (8.7 YPC), while Spiller holds a horrific 3.2 yards per catch average with nine grabs for only 29 yards.

Buffalo's 152 rushing YPG (2nd in NFL) has taken the pressure off rookie QB EJ Manuel who has been decent so far. He has completed 57% of his passes for 856 yards (6.6 YPA), 5 TD and 3 INT. The one negative is that Manuel tends to hold onto the football too long, absorbing 11 sacks already. Other than his versatile running backs, Manuel relies mostly on three receivers to catch the football, WR Steve Johnson (35 targets), WR Robert Woods (24 targets) and TE Scott Chandler (21 targets). Johnson had game highs in targets (11), catches (seven) and receiving yards (61) in last year's 24-14 win in Cleveland.

Buffalo's defense has done a great job of making plays this season with 11 takeaways in the first four games. DE/LB Mario Williams (5.5 sacks this year) had 1.5 sacks in last season's win over the Browns. Despite the turnovers, the Bills have not really stopped anybody with great consistency. They rank 22nd in the nation in passing defense (272 YPG allowed) and 27th against the run (122 YPG). A big reason the secondary has struggled is because of all the injuries to key players such as S Jarius Byrd (foot), CB Aaron Williams (back) and CB Leodis McKelvin (hamstring). All three defenders are listed as questionable to suit up Thursday.

Browns QB Brian Hoyer has done a tremendous job since taking over for injured starter Brandon Weeden (thumb). In the two starts, Hoyer is 2-0 with a 60% completion rate for 590 yards (295 YPG), 5 TD and 3 INT. He needs to make sure he's not forcing any throws facing such a turnover-happy defense, and Hoyer also need to make sure he's feeding sudden star TE Jordan Cameron (360 rec yds, 5 TD) and WR Josh Gordon, whom Hoyer has targeted 27 times in Gordon's two games back from suspension.

Even since the trade of top RB Trent Richardson to the Colts, this team has done a decent job running the football, gaining 192 yards on 4.1 YPC over the past two games. Veteran RB Willis McGahee is the new top back in town, but he has struggled early on with a mere 55 yards on 23 carries (2.4 YPC). RB Chris Ogbonnaya is the backup with 50 yards on seven carries (7.1 YPC), and he was able to amass 48 total yards and a touchdown last week.

Cleveland's run defense has been second-to-none, leading the NFL with 2.9 yards per carry. The Browns also lead the league by allowing a minuscule 4.2 yards per play, and have been able to force five turnovers during the past two games. They did not have the services of DE/LB Jabaal Sheard (knee) last week, and he is questionable for Thursday as well.

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