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College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Games to Watch - Week 5
By Brian Edwards

Ohio State at Wisconsin

As of Monday afternoon, most books had Ohio State (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as a 7½-point home favorite. During Urban Meyer’s two-year tenure, the Buckeyes are 6-5 against the spread as home favorites. After missing back-to-back games with a sprained knee, junior quarterback Braxton Miller is considered ‘probable.’ In his absence, Kenny Guiton has thrown for 664 yards and rushed for 186. Guiton has a 13/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wisconsin (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) bounced back from its heartbreaking defeat at Arizona State by demolishing Purdue 41-10 as a 22-point home ‘chalk.’ Sophomore RB Melvin Gordon leads the country with 624 rushing yards and seven TDs. Gordon is averaging 11.8 yards per carry and has the potential to take it to the house on any given touch. When these schools met at Camp Randall last year, Ohio State won 21-14 in overtime as a 2½-point road underdog. The Bucks have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-1 for Ohio State this year, 2-2 for Wisconsin. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Ole Miss at Alabama

Most spots have top-ranked Alabama (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) favored by 16 ½ points. The Crimson Tide has an 18-21 spread record as a home favorite under Nick Saban. QB A.J. McCarron has 702 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio for Alabama. As a road underdog on Hugh Freeze’s watch, Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) owns a 4-1 spread record. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS in their eight games away from Oxford (7 road, 1 neutral) under Freeze. Ole Miss’s leading returning tackler Denzel Nkemdiche (knee) was injured in the opener against Vandy and has missed the last two games. But Freeze told the media Monday afternoon that Nkemdiche would practice on Tuesday and be evaluated later in the week. He and CB Charles Sawyer are both listed as ‘questionable.’ Sawyer was suspended for the 44-23 win at Texas after his arrest on DUI charges the previous weekend. WR Vince Sanders (collarbone) is expected to play. Rebs’ QB Bo Wallace has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 648 yards with a 4/0 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 120 yards and three TDs. Jeff Scott has rushed for 330 yards and three TDs, averaging 9.4 YPC. He also has a punt return for a score. ESPN will have the telecast at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

Oklahoma at Notre Dame

Oklahoma (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) will be seeking revenge for last season’s 30-13 home loss to Notre Dame in Norman. The oddsmakers have made the Sooners 3½-point favorites. They had an open date following their 51-20 victory over Tulsa. Blake Bell took control of the starting QB job with his 413 passing yards and four TDs without an interception against the Golden Hurricane. OU is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 games as a road favorite. Notre Dame (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) has only been a home underdog twice under Brian Kelly, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Fighting Irish won a 17-13 decision over Michigan State this past weekend as a four-point home favorite. The 30 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 42-point total. NBC will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Arizona at Washington

Most books are listing Washington (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) as an eight-point favorite. During Steve Sarkisian’s five-year tenure, the Huskies are 9-5 ATS as home favorites. UW has won all three of its games by double-digit margins, including victories over Boise State (38-6) vs. Illinois (34-24 in Chicago). Senior QB Keith Price has completed 77.0 percent of his passes for 877 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. RB Bishop Sankey has run for 446 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.0 YPC. Arizona (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a 2-2 spread record in four games as a road underdog since Rich Rodriguez took over. AU’s new starting QB B.J. Denker has played well through 12 quarters. Denker has rushed for 221 yards and five TDs, in addition to a pair of TD passes without being intercepted. The Wildcats’ star is RB Ka’Deem Carey, who has 299 yards rushing and four TDs. He has a 7.0 YPC average. The ‘under’ is 2-1 for both schools. The ‘over’ has hit in six consecutive head-to-head meetings. When these Pac-12 rivals met last season, Arizona ran away with a 52-17 win as an 8½-point home ‘chalk.’ Carey ran for 172 yards and one TD, while AU’s defense intercepted Price twice. AU has had two weeks to prepare for the Huskies, who spanked Idaho St. 56-0 this past weekend. Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

Texas A&M at Arkansas

As of Monday afternoon, there was no line due to the uncertain status of Arkansas QB Brandon Allen, who missed Saturday’s 28-24 loss at Rutgers with a bruised shoulder suffered in a win over Souther Mississippi on Sept. 14. The Razorbacks allowed a 24-7 third-quarter lead to get away in the loss to the Scarlet Knights. Back-up QB A.J. Derby completed 14-of-26 passes for 137 yards and one TD without an interception. Arkansas (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) won the turnover battle 3-0 but couldn’t run the ball effectively like it had done in winning its first three games. Texas A&M (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) has covered the number in three straight outings, including Saturday’s 42-13 win over SMU as a 28½-point favorite. The ‘over’ hit in the first three games for the Aggies, but the 55 combined points against the Mustangs dipped well ‘under’ the 80-point total. Johnny Manziel threw for 244 yards and one TD, while also rushing for a team-high 102 yards and two TDs. For the season, Manziel has 1,205 passing yards with a 12/4 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 255 yards and three TDs. WR Mike Evans is second in the nation with 575 receiving yards. When these schools met in College Station last year, Texas A&M cruised to a 58-10 win as a 13-point home favorite. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

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Early Line Moves For Week 5
By Andrew Lange

Let’s take a look at some of the early line moves for this week’s college football action.

UConn at Buffalo
CRIS Opener: UConn -2.5
CRIS Current: Buffalo -1
Comment: Buffalo comes in off of a bye week. UConn hung tough against Michigan but a lot of it had to do with the Wolverines committing four turnovers.

UAB at Vanderbilt
CRIS Opener: Vanderbilt -23
CRIS Current: Vanderbilt -19.5
Comment: Oddsmakers and bettors don't seem to be on the same page when it comes to the Commodores. Last week against UMass, Vandy opened -36, closed -29 and the Minutemen covered rather easily.

Iowa at Minnesota
CRIS Opener: Minnesota -3.5
CRIS Current: Iowa -1
Comment: Gophers off to a strong 4-0 start but have yet to be tested. If Minny goes off as the favorite it will mark the first time doing so vs. a Big Ten opponent since 2009.

Arizona at Washington
CRIS Opener: Washington -7
CRIS Current: Washington -10
Comment: Arizona comes in off a bye week but has played arguably the softest schedule in the country: Northern Arizona, UNLV, and UT-San Antonio.

Navy at Western Kentucky
CRIS Opener: Western Kentucky pk
CRIS Current: Navy -2.5 (-3 everywhere else)
Comment: Conflicting reports about how much time and effort WKU has put in on prepping for the option. Petrino said he's not worried about the opponent but with Army also on the schedule, some option work has reportedly taken place dating back to the spring.

UNLV at New Mexico
CRIS Opener: New Mexico pk
CRIS Current: UNLV -3
Comment: UNLV hasn't won a road game since 2009, so there's that to consider.

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College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma at Notre Dame
By Teddy Covers

Oklahoma at Notre Dame
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma -2.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -3 (-120) O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Notre Dame

Last year, Notre Dame’s 30-13 upset win at Oklahoma as 13-point underdogs set the stage for its impressive run through November into the BCS Championship.  It was a tight game most of the way, with Notre Dame taking advantage of a pair of Sooner penalties that wiped potential touchdowns off the board. The Fighting Irish defense hung tough in the red zone, forcing field goals as opposed to allowing touchdowns.  And Oklahoma suffered a couple of bad snaps from center that killed key drives, not atypical of the miscues that plagued them in both regular season losses.

Now Oklahoma gets their chance for revenge in South Bend, and the betting markets clearly expect them to accomplish that task.  Bob Stoops is a 3.5-point road favorite here.  It’s surely worth noting that the Sooners have only enjoyed two winning ATS seasons over the last ten years in the road chalk role.  If you take out their 5-0 mark as road chalk with their 2008 team that played Florida in the national title game, Stoops and company are just 11-21 ATS as road favorites over the past ten years.

Oklahoma has not been tested early.  They’ve faced UL-Monroe, West Virginia and Tulsa at home prior to last week’s bye.  All three of those squads struggled to compete athletically with the Sooners talent base, but Oklahoma still struggled offensively in two of those three games.  The passing game didn’t work in the opener against UL-M.  And they managed only a single touchdown in a tight win over West Virginia; a Mountaineers team that lost 37-0 in a neutral site game against Maryland last week.

After the Sooners early offensive troubles, Stoops made a QB change from frosh Trevor Knight to junior Blake Bell.  The Belldozer was unable to beat out his frosh competitor in camp, but he enjoyed a huge game against Tulsa: 27-37 for 413 yards and four touchdowns without an INT.  Now, he’ll be making his first career road start against a pretty tough defense; a far cry from the suspect stop unit that Tulsa brought to the table before the bye.

Oklahoma’s defense has allowed only 27 points through their first three games despite suffering significant graduation losses this past offseason; including the departure of the vast majority of their defensive line and starting secondary.  That’s bad news for a Notre Dame offense that has not been lighting up the scoreboard early on.

That being said, the Irish have faced a much tougher early slate than Oklahoma, including matchups against both Michigan and Michigan State.  Tommy Rees has only completed 56% of his passes, but his 8-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is rock solid and four different Notre Dame receivers have a catch of 40 yards or longer.

Notre Dame lost four key defenders to the NFL draft last spring, and there’s been a noticeable drop-off for a team that allowed less than 13 points per game in 2012.  That being said, they’ve allowed only 19 points in two previous home games, and have a pretty darn good track record defending mobile quarterbacks like Bell.  I’m expecting a tight, competitive contest, which means I can only recommend Notre Dame plus the points.  That extra half point at the current +3.5 point spread has the real potential to be a difference maker on Saturday.

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College Football Betting Preview: Wisconsin at Ohio State
By Otto Sports

Wisconsin at Ohio State 
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener: Ohio State -7.5 O/U 53.5
CRIS Current: Ohio State -6.5 (-120) O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -6.5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Over

It will be 8 pm local time in Columbus when the Buckeyes and Badgers play in front of 100,000 screaming fans at “The Shoe” in what shapes up as one of the biggest games of the weekend. ABC will have the coverage as these two Big Ten heavyweights look to take an early stronghold on the Leaders Division.

Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is in his first year at the helm having come in from Utah State. His Aggies teams were stellar against the number when installed as road dogs going 14-2 ATS in that role during his tenure. He seems like a great fit here for the Badgers and his blue collar approach and willingness to lean on a three-headed monster of a running game should bring plenty of success.

Ohio State is in the second year of the Urban Meyer era and has yet to lose a game since he came aboard. The Buckeyes look much more efficient in Meyer’s offense this year and have covered seven of their last eight games dating back to 2012.

As mentioned earlier, Wisconsin leans heavily on their running game. But it’s not just a “three yards and a cloud of dust” attack despite it being straight forward, power running. The Badgers three main ball carriers – Melvin Gordon, James White and Corey Clement – all average more than 7.0 yards per carry this season and have combined for 14 touchdowns. Gordon in particular is a dynamo averaging more than 11.0 yards per carry this season. With those three humming along, Wisconsin ranks third in the nation in rushing at roughly 350 yards per game. Their offensive line is one of the best units in the country and should be able to have success against an Ohio State defense that has looked every bit inexperienced as it is at times throughout the young season. And they’ll need to have that success running because I’m not convinced in the slightest that quarterback Joel Stave can make many plays to influence the game through the air. He just doesn’t have any weapons outside of wide receiver Jared Abbrederis and injuries have weakened an already paper thin unit.

OSU quarterback Braxton Miller should make his return this week after brief stint on the sidelines. However we should note that the Buckeyes have listed Miller and backup Kenny Guiton as co-starters so it’s not entirely out of the question that we see both on Saturday night. In any event, Urban Meyer’s signature offense is running on all cylinders right now with Ohio State averaging more than 52 points per game, ranking fourth in the nation. Miller and Guiton both have been stellar throwing the ball so far with Miller looking infinitely more comfortable in the pocket and going through his reads. Deep threat Devin Smith can take the top off a defense in a hurry while Philly Brown serves as a solid possession man. But this team is still going to run the ball and they’re going to run it well. A solid stable of running backs includes Jordan Hall and the recently reactivated Carlos Hyde (suspension). Keep an eye on Dontre Wilson, the electric freshman has proven to be a weapon as a runner, receiver and kick returner.

My raw numbers suggest this game should see about 49 total points scored but those numbers are not adjusted for strength of schedule. If we examine the toughest games for each of these two teams (Cal for OSU and Arizona State for Wisconsin) we see that both of these defenses can be vulnerable. Both of those games flew over their respective totals and featured close to 2,000 combined yards. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see this one outpace the posted total.

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College Football Betting Preview: USC at Arizona State
By Ian Cameron

USC at Arizona State
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener: Arizona State -5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Arizona State -5 O/U 50.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Arizona State -5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Arizona State

This PAC-12 showdown should come down to which team imposes their will and style on the other team. USC will rely on defense and slowing the pace of this game down greatly while Arizona State will look to make this a shootout and use its fast paced, up-tempo offense to wear down the very stout Trojans defense over the course of 60 minutes. I think in this case, Arizona State and their offense will win out and home field advantage will prove to be too much for USC as the Trojans play their first PAC-12 road game of the season.

The reason why I’m more willing to lay the points with ASU at home is because I simply don’t trust USC’s offense to score enough points on the road to keep this game close for the duration. The Trojans will likely be better off in the long-term having Cody Kessler as their quarterback instead of Max Wittek but Kessler still has plenty of room for improvement. Kessler was only 13-of-27 passing for less than 50% completions last week against Utah State and the Trojans only put up 282 total yards. That was enough to get them a 17-14 win at home against the Aggies but that kind of output on offense this week won’t result in similar success. USC scored only 23 offensive points against lowly Hawaii in its only road game so far and the Trojans struggled mightily in the red zone in that game which is a definite concern facing a much tougher level of competition. Arizona State’s defense wasn’t very good last week as they struggled on the road allowing 38 points in its loss at Stanford and they are a bit banged up on that side of the football too but the Sun Devils should be able to regroup playing at home against a much inferior offense than the one they saw last week.

The USC defense did a good job limiting the production of Utah State’ Chuckie Keeton and a pretty good Aggies offense but ASU will be looking to speed up this game when they have the football. That will test the physical stamina and durability of this Trojans defense under the most treacherous offensive opponent they’ve played to this point. Taylor Kelly is completing nearly 60% of his passes with a solid 8-3 TD-INT ratio in three games and they have solid balance led by wide receiver Jaelen Strong and running back Marion Grice. Arizona State has scored 30+ points in seven of its eight home games at Sun Devil Stadium since Todd Graham dating back to the start of last year and I think they will be able to score their share of points in this game even against a very tough USC stop unit.

Arizona State will also be out for blood this week after falling behind 39-7 last week against Stanford before eventually losing 42-28. It’s also a revenge spot for the Sun Devils who lost 38-17 to the Trojans at the Coliseum last season. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I expect them to get the cash Saturday night on ESPN2.

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College Football Betting Preview: SMU at TCU
By Andrew Lange

Saturday, 9 am PT - FS1
CRIS Opener: TCU -19.5 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: TCU -19 O/U 51.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: TCU -14.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: TCU

If Texas A&M wanted to, it could have hung 60+ on SMU last weekend. Instead, the Aggies backed off late and won 42-13. This week, I don't think TCU has the ability to score at that type of rate but the Horned Frogs could offset that by putting up more resistance defensively.

TCU is off to a 1-2 start and has lost the services of quarterback Casey Pachall. Trevone Boykin is no doubt a tick down from Pachall but at home, off a bye week, and against a defense that has allowed 315.7 ypg passing, I expect him to have one of his better games.

Ever since Week 1's dismal showing against Texas Tech at home – in what should have been SMU's Game of the Year – I've been looking to fade this team. You have three key entities in quarterback Garrett Gilbert, head coach Junes Jones, and offensive coordinator Hal Mumme that simply don't bring much to the table these days. Gilbert puts up big numbers but has yet to perform with the game on the line. And I feel like Jones and Mumme, who are 60 and 61 years old respectively, are no longer the "geniuses" they once were.

Also note that there is a little bit of animosity between the two schools. Patterson and Jones have reportedly "mended fences" after a verbal spat a few years back but Patterson is no longer interested in helping out its crosstown little brother. Like I said, I’m not sure if TCU has the ability to win by 35+ but at 1-2 and off a bye you can bet Patterson is itching for a never-in-doubt type outcome.

“You’ve got to make sure you understand, [losing] is a disease. It spreads,” Patterson said. “If you’re not careful, you get to where you tolerate it. Losing cannot be tolerated. Even in 2004 (TCU’s only losing season under Patterson) we didn’t tolerate it. That’s why we were able to turn that thing around quickly in 2005.”

Note that last year's meeting in which TCU won 24-16 was a rain-soaked slopfest in which both teams combined for eight turnovers. The weather this weekend is expected to be clear.

The markets have adjusted for SMU's shortcomings and this is somewhat of a rivalry but there aren't many aspects of this contest that favor the underdog and I'll continue to bet against the Mustangs until they prove otherwise.

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NCAAF Week 5

Top 13 games

First road game for Virginia team that is 14-10 vs spread in last 24 games as a road underdog; Cavaliers were outgained by 398 yards in splitting a pair of I-A home games, beating BYU 19-16 in a monsoon, losing 59-10 to powerful Oregon. First road start for soph QB Watford. Pitt is 4-1 as a home favorite under Chryst; they got first ACC win last week, a 58-55 slugfest at Duke where Pitt's +4 turnover margin helped offset 532 total yards for Blue Devils. Well-traveled senior QB Savage is completing 65% of his passes- Panthers scored 107 points in last two games.

Home side won seven of last eight Iowa-Minnesota games, as favorites are 9-3 vs spread in last 12; Hawkeyes lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-3-10 points. Since '04, Iowa is 7-13 as a road favorite; they lost five of last six conference road games, are 2-4 vs spread in last six as a Big Dozen road favorite. Minnesota is 3-8 in last 11 conference home games; they scored 51-44-43 points in winning first three games vs I-A teams this year, but opponents were perennial doormats. Redshirt freshman QB Leidner played last week; Gophers are combined 23-39 passing in their last three games, thats not much passing.

LSU QB Mettenberger started college career at Georgia; his mom works in the Dawgs' athletic department, but got this week off. Tigers won last two series games 20-13/42-10, holding Georgia to total of 123 yards on ground-- three of last seven meetings were in SEC title game. LSU beat TCU 37-27 in Dallas, a semi-road game; they're 7-7 as underdogs under Miles, 5-6 on road. Georgia has veteran offense (QB has 44 career starts, OL has 116); they're 12-8 in last 20 games as a home favorite, but they also have eight new starters on defense, and LSU OC Cameron is an NFL vet who will exploit weaknesses. Dawgs scored 35-41 points in its first two games vs Clemson/South Carolina.

Home side won last five Arizona-Washington games; Wildcats are 2-5 in last seven visits here, losing 42-31/36-33 in last two. Favorites covered four of last five series games. Wildcats had 277 rushing yards, 256 in air in 52-17 (-7.5) thrashing of U-Dub LY. Huskies scored 38-34 points in winning its first two I-A games; they're 6-2 in last eight games as home faves. With 18 starters back; QB has 29 starts, OL 81 this is best offense Sarkisian has had (592/615 TY vs Boise/Illinois). Arizona is 4-2 as dogs in RichRod era, 2-2 on road; they crushed pair of cupcakes in their first two I-A games, but at least one was on road, at UNLV.

Alabama won its last nine games vs Ole Miss, but Rebels covered six of last eight, including last four visits here, in losses by 3-4-13-19. Freeze is 22-6 vs spread in his last 28 lined games, with Rebels/Ark State. Bama is 2-8 vs spread in last ten home games; last time they lost to team outside top 20 was 2007. Ole Miss is #21. Total yardage in LY's game was just 305-218, Bama. Rebels scored 44-39 points in winning pair of games on road already this season, at Vandy/Texas, gaining 938 TY in those games. Ole Miss is 4-1 as road dogs under Freeze- they've got 97 starts back on OL and vet QB hitting 64% of passes. Alabama is 3-0 and hasn't really been threatened (were down 14-0 at A&M) but they've been outgained from scrimmage in two of those three wins.

USC won 12 of last 13 games with Arizona State, but lost 43-22 in last visit here; favorites are 8-3 in last 11 series games, but this is just second time in last 13 meetings ASU has been favored. Sun Devils gave up 471 rushing yards last two weeks; who made their schedule? They're playing Wisconsin-Stanford-USC-Notre Dame on consecutive Saturdays. Damn. Trojans have veteran OL (105 starts) but they've scored 7-17 points in close games with Wazzu/Utah State this month- they're 4-1 as road dogs under Kiffin. ASU is 18-13 in last 31 games as a home favorite (4-2 in Graham era). ASU has edge in experience at QB.

Texas A&M passed for 498 yards in 58-10 drubbing of Arkansas LY, as Aggies ended three-game series skid, having allowed 113 points in those three losses. Arkansas is 1-6 vs spread at home since Petrino left town; they were 13-5-1 as HFs in Petrino era. Hogs gave up 346 passing yards in 28-24 loss at Rutgers last week, when they blew 24-7 lead, despite a +3 turnover ratio. First road game for Aggies, who were 4-1 vs spread on road LY. A&M is scoring 45.3 ppg vs I-A opponents this year, scoring 42 in home loss to Alabama- they gained 1,209 yards in two games that Manziel started that were against I-A teams (Bama/SMU).

Notre Dame (+12.5) won 30-13 at Oklahoma LY, outrushing Sooners by 215-15 margin; Irish just went 2-1 vs Big Dozen teams, winning by 7-4 vs Purdue/Michigan State, despite completing only 14-34 passes against Spartans. ND is 5-3 as home dogs since 2005, 1-1 in Kelly era; since '04, Sooners are 14-18-1 as road favorites- this is first road start for Bell, who threw only 16 passes LY but is 30-43/451 throwing ball so far this year. He is a strong runner. This is first road game for Oklahoma squad with seven new starters on defense. ND drew four PI penalties against Michigan State last week, a couple when they needed them most.

Colorado hasn't played in three weeks because of floods in Boulder and then a scheduled bye; Buffs are just 3-13 as road dogs since '10, but new coach MacIntyre was 10-5 as road dog at San Jose, covering seven of last nine such chances. While Buffs weren't playing, Oregon State won pair of wild road games, 51-48 in OT at Utah, 34-30 at San Diego State, when they scored two TDs in 0:19 in last 3:00 for win. Beavers are 6-10 in last 16 games as home favorites- don't forget they lost 49-46 in opener to Eastern Washington- they've allowed 30+ points in three of four games. Colorado WR Richardson is one of best players on west coast-- he has 21 catches for 417 (19.9 avg) yards and four TDs in his first two games.

Central Florida has NFL-caliber QB in Bortles and O'Leary is very good coach, so Knights are no pushover for South Carolina squad that is 7-5-2 as road favorite under Spurrier, but lost only road game 41-30 ar Georgia earlier this month. UCF is 8-6 in its last 14 games as home underdog but this also first time since '09 they've been a home dog. Knights outgained Penn State 507-455 in 34-31 win at Happy Valley in last game. Carolina is 12-7-1 vs spread in its last 19 non-SEC games. Bortles is completing 71% of his passes; Knights covered 13 of last 18 non-league games, and had great balance at Penn State, running for 219 yards, passing for 288.

Florida outscored Kentucky 92-3 in first half of their last five meetings; Gators won last five meetings by average score of 48-7, but this is first college start for backup QB Murphy, who was 8-14 passing last week as he subbed for fallen starter Driskel (ankle, out for year). Florida is 2-2 as road favorites under Muschamp, after covering eight of last ten as a HF in Meyer era. Kentucky allowed 487-492 yards in losses this season to WKU (35-26, -4) and Louisvile (27-13, -14)- their only win was against hapless Miami, OH. Florida lost its only other road game this season, 21-16 (-3) to the Miami Hurricanes.

Stanford won last five games with Washington State by average score of 40-14, with road team covering last four series games. Cardinal won last two visits here 44-14/39-13, but Leach is making progress establishing his program in Pullman. Coogs won SU at USC 10-7, holding Trojans to 193 TY, then they beat couple stiff teams- they're 7-4 in last 11 games as a home dog. Stanford gave up 391 passing yards in 42-28 home win over ASU last week, a game that wasn't as close as final score indicated. Cardinal is 12-3 in last 15 games as a road favorite, 8-2 in 2+ years under Shaw- they better not look ahead to next week's Washington game.

Wisconsin coach Anderson is 15-2 vs spread as road dog after covering in bizarre 32-30 (+7) loss at Arizona State couple weeks ago; Badgers lost five of last six games with Ohio State with underdogs winning three in row SU and covering seven of last ten. Wisky lost last three at Ohio State by 4-18-21 points- they covered four of last five games as a road dog. Buckeyes have two quality QBs; they're 8-4 vs spread in last dozen games as Big Dozen home favorite. TY in Wisky-ASU game: 468-441 in favor of Sun Devils, with Kelly passing for 352 yards. OSU allowed 371 passing yards in 52-34 win at Cal two weeks ago, but gained 608 yards in what was game that wasn't as close as the final score. .

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College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M at Arkansas
By Brian Edwards

Texas A&M at Arkansas
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener: Texas A&M -14 O/U 64
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -14.5 O/U 62
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas A&M -15.5
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Over

Arkansas will have revenge on its mind when it takes on Texas A&M as a double-digit underdog Saturday in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks got demolished by a 58-10 count in College Station last season as 13-point underdogs.

There was no line on this game until early Thursday afternoon when most books made Texas A&M (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 62.5. Gamblers can take Bret Bielema’s team on the money line for a +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

Kevin Sumlin’s squad bounced back from a 49-42 loss to Alabama to thump SMU 42-13 last week. The Aggies got the money as 28.5-point home favorites. Johnny Manziel produced 346 yards (244 passing, 102 rushing) and three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing).

For the season, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has 12 TD passes compared to four interceptions. Manziel has rushed for 255 yards and three TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Mike Evans is playing like the nation’s top wide receiver, hauling in 22 receptions for 575 yards and three TDs.

Arkansas (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) won its first three games under new head coach Bret Bielema, knocking off UL-Lafayette (34-14), Samford (31-21) and Southern Miss (24-3) at home. However, in the Razorbacks’ first road assignment last week, they allowed a 24-7 second-half lead to get away in a 28-24 loss as 1.5-point underdogs.

Sophomore quarterback Brandon Allen threw five TD passes and only one interception before bruising his shoulder against Southern Miss. But the injury kept him out against Rutgers and has him ‘doubtful’ vs. Texas A&M.

A.J. Derby, a transfer from Iowa, got the starting nod against RU. He completed 14-of-26 throws for 136 yards and one TD without an interception. He’ll get the start against the Aggies.

Derby will need more production from the ground attack that had been so effective in the first three games. Freshman RB Alex Collins, the prize recruit of Arky’s first class under Bielema, is fifth in the nation in rushing with 483 yards. However, he was limited to 63 yards on 16 carries against the Scarlet Knights.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 for Texas A&M this year. Meanwhile, the Hogs have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their three home outings. 

From 1988-2011, Arkansas covered the number in seven straight head-to-head meetings between these former Southwest Conference rivals. Before taking last year’s shellacking at Kyle Field, the Hogs beat Texas A&M three straight times at Cowboys Stadium.

But it got ugly early in College Station last year. Manziel torched Arkansas for 557 yards. He completed 29-of-38 passes for 453 yards and three TDs without an interception. Manziel also ran for 104 yards and one score.

I think Arkansas is going to be able to effectively run the ball against Texas A&M’s soft defense. By the same taken, I believe the Aggies are going to be able to run and throw the ball well against the Hogs. I made this total 66 and feel like the line value is with a play on the ‘over.’

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College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss at Alabama
By Alatex Sports

Mississippi at Alabama
Saturday, 3:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Alabama -13.5 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Alabama -14 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabam7a -17
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Over

Top ranked Alabama hosts Ole Miss this week in what could be another test for the Tide. Alabama has failed to cover in its last two wins and has yet to really play the dominant game that one might expect to see from the best team in the country. The problem is that they might not be the best team in the country, and there is no question that they are not as good as they were the last couple of years in which they won national titles. Don’t get me wrong, this team is good, and by the end of the year they might be celebrating a three-peat, but thus far, they have shown some holes in their game.

Bama beat Virginia Tech in its opener thanks to three return touchdowns, 35-10, but was actually outgained by the Hokies, 212-206. In the 49-42 win over Texas A&M, Bama allowed a school record 628 yards to the Aggies, but had another defensive touchdown that made the difference in the game. Finally, last week against Colorado State, the Tide led just 17-6 in the fourth quarter before returning a punt for a touchdown and scoring again after a turnover deep in Bama territory for the final 31-6 margin. They only outgained Colorado State 338-279 in the game, however, and the Rams dominated the second half until the blocked punt zapped them of their energy.

This week Alabama will be tested again by an Ole Miss team that played them tough here last year. The Rebels returns everyone from that team and added several impact freshmen to a solid core on offense. In addition, Ole Miss will get a couple of key performers back from injury in time for this contest. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche has missed the last two games but will be back on the field this week. He was Ole Miss’ leading tackler last year and is an impact player on their defense. The Rebels also get receiver Vincent Sanders back for this game. Sanders missed the first three games due to a broken collarbone and he will help the already potent offense.

Ole Miss has already won on the road this year at Vanderbilt and at Texas and should be confident after last year’s game. Bama wound up with a 33-14 win over the Rebels, but Ole Miss did hold them to a season low 305 total yards and were the first team that actually led Alabama in a game in 2012. Turnovers hurt the Rebels a year ago, as Bo Wallace had three passes intercepted and they also allowed a kickoff return for a score.

The pointspread in the 2012 game was Alabama -30, so there has been a huge adjustment this year with the Tide laying two touchdowns. However, Ole Miss was 3-1 at the time of last year’s game and had lost to Texas 66-31 while beating three cupcakes. After the Bama loss, they went on to play Texas A&M and LSU tough and beat Arkansas, Mississippi State and Pittsburgh. They gained a lot of respect in the second half of the year and have added even more thus far this year with their 3-0 start.

To me, this game goes one of two ways: Alabama plays its best game of the year and takes advantage of a shaky Ole Miss defense for an easy win, or, Alabama really is nowhere as good as they were a year ago and Ole Miss uses its speed on offense to frustrate the Bama defense for about 500 yards and leaves Tuscaloosa with the win. Either way, there should be a few points scored by both teams and the game goes over the total.

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ACC Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams

The Atlantic Coast Conference has two teams in the top eight of The Associated Press Top 25 poll, and three teams in the Top 15. Barring any unlikely setbacks, that should continue into next week, as all three teams face inferior opponents. The only other ACC unbeaten team, Maryland, will rest up and enjoy a bye.

If you're looking for pure enjoyment, and no action, then this weekend's slate of ACC games isn't for you. With the exception of the UVA-Pitt game, all favorites in this weekend's ACC slate are favored by at least 12 or more points. In Thursday's action, Virginia Tech hit the road and tripped up Georgia Tech by a 17-10 score, handing the Ramblin' Wreck its first straight-up loss, conference loss and ATS setback. Since a beatdown from Alabama, the Hokies are getting increasingly stronger, winning four straight games, and covering for the first time this season.

If you're looking for entertainment, it might come in the way of the Troy-Duke game. The Trojans have rolled up 34 or more points in three of the past four games, and Duke scored 55 points in last week's loss at home to Pitt. The 'over' has cashed in 10 of the past 11 for Troy. Enjoy the weekend!

Miami, Fl. at South Florida

The Hurricanes blow into Raymond James Stadium looking to keep their record unblemished, while the Bulls look to finally get into the win column. These teams have a common opponent, Florida Atlantic. While Miami tuned up the Owls by a 34-6 score Aug. 30, USF was taken down by FAU at home by a 28-10 score Sept. 14. A much better USF team was steamrolled 40-9 by the Canes Nov. 17, 2012, so covering a 19-point spread at home might be a tall order. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS over their past nine games, they're 8-2 ATS in their past 10 road contests, and they are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing record. The Bulls are just 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 home games, and 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 non-conference contests. QB Stephen Morris (leg), who left the blowout win against Savannah State, is expected to play in this one.

East Carolina at North Carolina

The little cousin heads west looking for a little respect from the injured, but still dangerous, older relative in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are licking their wounds after a stunning loss in Atlanta last weekend. UNC appeared to have the game in command, but frittered away a 20-7 lead in the rain, allowing 21 unanswered points to Georgia Tech. The Pirates are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, although they covered against Virginia Tech earlier this season in Greenville. The Pirates are 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road games overall. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their past six against Conference USA foes, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games at Kenan Stadium.

Virginia at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage has really come into his own over the past couple of games, especially last week in Durham. The Panthers rolled up a 58-55 win, lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball game. Unfortunately for bettors laying three and a hook, a bad taste was left in mouths everywhere after the Panthers frittered away a 58-41 lead midway through the fourth quarter. It isn't surprising to see Pitt fail to cover, as they've only done so once in three tries. Virginia isn't much better, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine ACC games, and 8-20 ATS in their past 28 games against teams with a winning record. The 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's three games this season, and is 2-1 in UVA's three contests.

Wake Forest at Clemson

The Demon Deacons are a four-touchdown dog in Death Valley, and by all accounts they might not come close to covering that number. Wake is 3-13 ATS in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record, 1-6 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record. Wake's only cover this season in four tries came in a 23-11 snoozefest at West Point last weekend. Clemson failed to cover on the road last week in Raleigh against NC State, but they are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 ACC battles. The talent difference is stark, but watch out for Wake WR Michael Campanaro. If the Deacs are to have any chance to stay in the game, Campanaro and QB Riley Skinner need to bring their 'A' games.

Florida State at Boston College

The Jameis Winston show heads to the northeast, as the Top 10 Seminoles look to stay perfect. The Seminoles have covered each of their past four, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record. However, that lone road cover came Sept. 2 at Pittsburgh in a 41-13 rout. Don't put too much stock into past year's trends, and focus on what has been going on this season. The 'Noles are 3-0 SU, ATS and the 'over' has cashed in each of their three tilts. BC can get it done offensively, as QB Chase Rettig is adequate, WR Alex Amidon is a reliable receiver, and RB Andre Williams can be a grinder However, the defense has been the key for BC, helping the 'under' cash in each of their three battles.

Other Games

Troy at Duke (3:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan at North Carolina State (3:30 p.m. ET)


Maryland, Syracuse

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Pac-12 Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 has a few teams with some really ugly records against the spread. California has yet to cover in three tries, while Oregon State and USC are just 1-3 ATS. On the flip side, Oregon, UCLA and Washington State are perfect against the number, and have made bettors quite the profit thus far.

This weekend marks a full slate of conference games, with 10 of the league's 12 teams hitting the gridiron. The aforementioned UCLA Bruins, who are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, will have off this weekend before heading for Salt Lake City to face Utah Thursday, Oct. 3.

Last weekend, the league went 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS. The home teams were 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS, while road teams were 2-1 straight up and 1-2 ATS. The 'over' went 5-3 last week, with the 'over' going 3-2 for the home teams.

Colorado at Oregon State

The Buffaloes have been quite the surprise this season, with QB Connor Wood and WR Paul Richardson combining to form quite the dynamic duo. It's a far cry from what we have seen from CU the past two years, when the cupboard has been mostly bare. It remains to be seen whether or not the Buffs have any rust, however, as they haven't taken the field since Sept. 7 due to a cancelled game Sept. 14 due to the Colorado floods, and a bye the following week. In fact, Oregon State has played twice as many games as Colorado, and they're battle tested on the road, and at home. Colorado has covered each of its two games this season, while it has been a slow-go for the Beavers. They're just 1-3 against the number. The 'over' has been the play in Beav games this season, with QB Sean Mannion and RB Brandin Cooks making for quite a tandem. RB Storm Woods (concussion) returned to practice this week, but is sidelined again, meaning RB Terron Ward would draw his second straight start.

Arizona at Washington

It's a battle of 3-0 teams in Seattle when the Wildcats and Huskies do battle. If Arizona is to have success, they'll need RB Ka'Deem Carey to do exactly what he did last season in the meeting with U-Dub. Carey rolled for 172 rushing yards on 29 attempts. A stout running game would help to take the pressure off QB B.J. Denker. The offense starts and stops with RB Bishop Sankey for Washington. He has been a machine this season, rolling up 148.7 yards per game on the ground, which is second in the nation. QB Keith Price is no slouch either, tossing for seven scores through the first three games. Arizona is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, while Washington is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five outings against teams with a winning mark.

Stanford at Washington State

Stanford meets up with surprising WaZu in Seattle, and it is a really tricky spot. However, if you can get the Cardinal in single digits, you might be doing yourself a huge favor. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings as a road team against the Cougars, with the favorite going 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the road team cashing in each of the past four. Keep an eye on the total in this one. The under is 5-2 in Stanford's past seven road games, while the under has gone 1-3 in Washington State's four games this season. The under is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings at Washington State, and 8-2-1 in the past 11 meetings in this series overall.

California at Oregon

The scoreboard operator at Autzen Stadium has had plenty of practice keeping pace with Oregon's fast-paced attack, and he/she will be working hard early and often this week. The Ducks have scored in less than two minutes in 23 of their past 28 scoring possessions this season, and they have outscored their opponents 184-27 through three games. Freshman QB Jared Goff was unable to engineer an upset of Ohio State in their last game two weeks ago, but he looked good in throwing for 371 yards and three scores. He will need to outproduce Oregon QB Marcus Mariota if the Bears are to pull off the monumental upset. Cal is 0-5 ATS in the past five Pac-12 games, 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road contests, and 3-13 ATS in the past 16 games overall. Meanwhile, Oregon has covered 10 of its past 11. The total is set at 84 points, but be careful with that. The 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings in Eugene, and five of the past six overall.

Southern California at Arizona State

USC looks to level its conference record at 1-1, and, more importantly, a victory would go a long way in restroring credibility for the Trojans. They're just not viewed as a power following a 10-7 setback to Washington State earlier in the season. AZ State was dropped down a peg last week in Palo Alto, proving they're not quite ready for prime time in a 42-28 loss. They made a valiant comeback after trailing 39-7 in that game. If the Sun Devils are to get untracked, RB Marion Grice would need to post triple-digit yards. This will be interesting as far as the total is concerned. The 'under' has cashed in all four of USC's games, while the 'over' has connected in each of AZ State's three tilts. The Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Tempe, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The 'over' has come through in five of the past seven meetings in Tempe.

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Saturday's Top Action

LSU TIGERS (4-0) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (2-1) Line & Total: Georgia -2.5 & 61.5
Opening Line & Total: Bulldogs -3 & 61.5

No. 6 LSU will look to remain unbeaten as it travels to No. 9 Georgia as slight road underdogs.

LSU is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS to start the season, failing to cover wide margins in their last two contests against Kent State and Auburn. The Tigers have yet to be truly tested though since week one, when they won and covered with a 37-27 victory against TCU. Georgia, on the other hand, played an extremely difficult schedule to start the season and began it with a loss to Clemson in a 38-35 barnburner. They bounced back nicely, however, with a 41-30 win and cover against South Carolina, and after a bye week romped North Texas in an ATS loss, 45-21. These two teams have played just once over the past three years, meeting at a neutral site in the 2011 SEC Championship game when the Tigers cruised past the Bulldogs 42-10. Covering against top-notch teams has been a struggle for Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who is 1-10 ATS at home in his career against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75%. Georgia is 2-1 SU in the program's only three series meetings in Athens since 1992 while LSU is 2-1 ATS in those meetings. Overall since 1992, Georgia is 5-4 SU while LSU is 5-4 ATS against one another.

Though he's always had some doubters, LSU QB Zach Mettenberger has been spectacular to start the 2013 season with 1,026 yards through four games on 59-of-91 passing for 10 TD and only 1 INT. The burly 6-foot-5 senior is a pure pocket passer and hadn't thrown a pick until last week against Auburn. He has two main receiving targets in Odell Beckham (20 catches for 389 yards, 4 TD) and Jarvis Landry (24 catches for 364 yards, 6 TD). LSU's rushing game has also been very effective to begin this 2013 campaign, led by Jeremy Hill's 42 carries for 350 yards and six touchdowns. Supplementing his touches is Terrence Magee, who has 29 carries for 219 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the LSU defense has held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry, but has allowed foes to rack up 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

Georgia also has a dangerous offensive attack that can be threatening both through the air and on the ground. QB Aaron Murray has put up big numbers to start the year, completing 59-of-82 passes for 1,040 yards through only three games (347 YPG). He has seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Like Mettenberger, Murray is not a threat to run. He leaves the running to Todd Gurley, who has 63 carries for 377 yards and four touchdowns, which includes a 75-yard touchdown scamper. Unlike Mettenberger, Murray spreads his passes out to many more targets with six different players having more than 100 yards and six different players picking up touchdowns. The No. 1 option has been Justin Scott-Wesley (10 catches for 234 yards) while Chris Conley (10 catches for 142 yards) and Michael Bennett (10 catches for 124 yards) tie him for the team lead in receptions. You also can't forget about Reggie Davis, who has only two catches, but one of them was the team's longest play of the season, a 98-yard touchdown pass. The Georgia defense is giving up 4.0 yards per rush, which isn't bad, but it must improve against the pass to have a shot against Mettenberger. The unit is giving up 7.7 yards per passing attempt and 12.3 yards per completion this season.

USC TROJANS (3-1) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (2-1) Line & Total: Arizona State -5.5 & 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Sun Devils -6.5 & 50

USC head coach Lane Kiffin's seat only gets hotter every day as the Trojans head to Sun Devil Stadium Saturday night to face a now-unranked Arizona State squad.

The Trojans have only one loss this season, but the season hasn't been pretty. They lost as a 16-point favorite to Washington State, and last week only barely beat Utah State 17-14, improving to 3-1 SU but falling to 1-3 ATS. The Trojans are now 4-13 ATS over the past two seasons and 1-8 ATS coming off a straight-up win. The Sun Devils are now 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS after falling 42-28 to Stanford last week as 6.5-point underdogs. Arizona State is 3-11 ATS coming off an Over during the past three years. These two teams have split their past two meetings SU and ATS, with both teams winning and covering at home. While USC is 6-3 SU against Arizona State on the road since 1992, the Sun Devils are 5-4 ATS in those games. Overall dating back to 1992, USC is 15-4 SU and 11-8 ATS in this series.

Sophomore QB Cody Kessler leads the USC attack, completing 46-of-76 passes to start the season for four touchdowns and two interceptions. He has been inconsistent, however, as he was ultra-efficient while completing 15-of-17 passes in the team's week three blowout of Boston College, but in last week's nail-biter, he was 13-for-27. His immobility can also be an issue as he has minus-8 rushing yards so far this season. The guy they can trust on the ground is Tre Madden, who is averaging 5.1 YPC with 90 touches and 455 yards in 2013, finding the end zone twice. Also with two rushing touchdowns is Justin Davis, who has 32 carries for 189 yards. The most dynamic threat in the offense, though, is Kessler's top target Marqise Lee (23 catches for 293 yards, 1 TD) who can make plays if Kessler is successful in finding him with the ball. The Trojans' rushing defense has been a highlight in 2013, yielding only 2.2 YPC while the passing defense has also had its moments, limiting opponents to 4.8 yards per attempt. The 9.3 yards per completion, though, needs to be improved upon for this defense to be considered anything close to elite.

The Sun Devils have a much more aggressive passing attack led by QB Taylor Kelly, who has already surpassed the 1,000-yard mark with 1,019 through three games on 82-of-137 passing. He has eight touchdowns but three interceptions this year, two of which came in the team's loss to Stanford while he was forced to sling the ball a whopping 55 times. Kelly's top target is Jaelen Strong (24 receptions for 330 yards, 2 TD) but he is good at spreading the wealth, with two other receivers pulling in two touchdowns apiece. To take the pressure off Kelly, RB Marion Grice must be more than a goal-line threat. He has six touchdowns already, but only 193 yards on 53 carries (3.6 YPC) this year. The Sun Devils defense has been mediocre against the run, giving up 4.7 YPC, and has been equally as questionable against the pass, allowing 6.7 yards per attempt and 12.2 yards per completion. That was the problem against the Cardinal, surrendering a hefty 13.7 yards per completion.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS (3-0) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (3-1) Line & Total: Oklahoma -4 & 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Sooners -3.5 & 49.5

No. 14 Oklahoma looks to make up for last season's loss in Norman as they head to South Bend to take on No. 22 Notre Dame on Saturday.

Last season, the two teams were tied at 13 with 5:05 left before Notre Dame scored the final 17 points of the game. The biggest reason for the Irish victory was their terrific job against the Sooners rushing attack (24 carries for 15 yards). However, this is not the same Notre Dame defense as last season, and QB Blake Bell has the Oklahoma offense rolling right now. In a 51-20 victory over Tulsa in their last game two weeks ago, Bell threw for a career-high 423 yards and showed that he is more than just the "Belldozer." His favorite target in that game was WR Sterling Shepard, who finished with 123 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Sooners are not the only offense in this game that has been able to throw the ball as QB Tommy Rees has Notre Dame's offense rolling as well. With Everett Golson suspended due to academics, it was expected that the Fighting Irish offense would slip. However, Rees along with DaVaris Daniels and TJ Jones have formed one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. Against Purdue, Daniels grabbed eight catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-tying touchdown. The key matchup in this game will be Oklahoma CB Aaron Colvin matched up against the receiving corps. Bob Stoops is 12-4 ATS (75%) when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Oklahoma, but Brian Kelly is 10-1 ATS (91%) after his teams gains 125 rushing yards or less in two straight games as a college head coach.

While Michigan State has a very good defense, their offense is absolutely abysmal. They allowed a subpar Notre Dame defense to look a lot better than it really is last week. That will not be the case with the Sooners however, as they are once again one of the premier offenses in the country. Through four weeks, the Sooners rank 16th in the country with 272 rushing yards per game. Brennan Clay has led them on the ground, averaging 87.3 yards per game while scoring two rushing touchdowns. The offense is once again explosive, but the Sooners appear to be playing the type of defense that Oklahoma did in the early 2000's. In three games, the Sooners have given up just nine points per game, ranking fifth in the country. With Aaron Colvin, they have one of the elite cornerbacks in the country. With Julian Wilson on the other side, the Sooners have the guys that can match up with the Notre Dame receivers. If Jordan Phillips and the rest of the Oklahoma defensive line are able to get pressure on Rees, then there is a good chance that the Sooners will be able to get the victory. If not, then Notre Dame could once again pull off an SU upset.

Notre Dame currently heads into its game against Oklahoma with 13 straight home victories. While it has not been pretty the past two weeks, the Fighting Irish made enough plays late in both games to beat Purdue and Michigan State. Junior RB Amir Carlisle is starting to give Notre Dame a solid rushing attack to complement their high-flying passing attack. Against Michigan State, the Fighting Irish were called for eight penalties, totaling 86 yards. They must play mistake-free football if they want to get their third straight victory, and the defense needs to force more turnovers than its four takeaways in four games this year. Notre Dame's run defense has been pretty strong this season, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry.

OLE MISS REBELS (3-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-0) Line & Total: Alabama -14.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Crimson Tide -17 & 56

No. 1 Alabama faces another tough test on Saturday night when it hosts the explosive offense of No. 21 Ole Miss.

Ole Miss hasn't beaten Alabama SU since 2003, averaging a mere 13.1 PPG during nine straight defeats in this series. But the Rebels have covered in four straight visits to Tuscaloosa, losing by just 9.8 PPG in the four ATS wins. As 31-point underdogs, they lost only 33-14 a year ago, holding the Crimson Tide to 305 yards of offense. Ole Miss enters this one winners of five in a row SU, and has covered in five of its past six contests. This season, the Rebels are averaging 38.0 PPG and 490 total YPG in their three victories. Alabama essentially took last week off against Colorado State, resting numerous starters in a 31-6 victory. It was the second straight week the Tide have failed to cover, winning 49-42 at 8-point underdog Texas A&M the previous week. However, this is a good sign considering Alabama is 15-3 ATS (83%) off two no-covers as a favorite since 1992. However, Ole Miss has had plenty of time to prepare with last week's bye, and they are 19-6 ATS (76%) on the road when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992. Both teams also have favorable coaching trends, as Hugh Freeze is 12-4 ATS (75%) since arriving at Ole Miss and 13-3 ATS (81%) in the first half of the season as a college coach. Nick Saban is 18-8 ATS (69%) off a home win by 17+ points, and 25-14 ATS (64%) after 3+ straight wins as the Alabama head coach.

The Rebels have shown tremendous offensive balance this season with 250 rushing YPG (21st in nation) and 240 passing YPG (55th in FBS). QB Bo Wallace is a true dual-threat under center, throwing for 648 yards (7.5 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT, but also running for 120 yards and 3 TD. Wallace is looking to make amends after a dreadful performance at Alabama last year when he completed just 15-of-26 passes for 123 yards (4.7 YPA), 0 TD and 2 INT. He has a great chance to improve upon that with the return of top WR Vince Sanders who has missed the entire season after suffering a broken collarbone in the first fall practice. Sanders caught seven passes for 46 yards in last year's loss to the Tide. Without Sanders, Wallace has relied mostly on three players who have all surpassed 10 catches and 150 yards this year -- TE Evan Engram (175 yds, 2 TD), WR Donte Moncrief (173 yds, 2 TD) and Laquon Treadwell (154 yds). It's never easy to run on Alabama, but the Rebels have an excellent ball carrier in RB Jeff Scott, who has galloped for 330 yards on just 35 carries (9.4 YPC) with a pair of touchdowns. He scored on a 75-yard game-winning scamper with 1:07 left in his team's SEC-opening win at Vanderbilt. The Ole Miss defense has been much improved this season, especially against the run where it has held teams to 114 rushing YPG on 3.1 YPC. The passing defense has also been decent, allowing 218 YPG on 6.8 YPA, including 5.4 YPA in its last game, a 44-23 win at Texas. The Rebels are really hoping to have sophomore LB Denzel Nkemdiche (knee) back in action. He was all over the field in last year's meeting with Alabama, racking up 11 tackles, 3 TFL and two forced fumbles. His brother, highly-touted freshman DE Robert Nkemdiche, has yet to record a sack, but he does have 10 tackles (eight solo) in his first three collegiate games. Ole Miss knows it needs to create some turnovers, something it has done five times this season.

Alabama's offense has not been very consistent, especially on the ground. The Tide tallied just 96 rushing yards (2.5 YPC) in the season opener versus Virginia Tech and 66 yards (3.1 YPC) in last week's victory over Colorado State. However, none of this blame should go to RB T.J. Yeldon who has gained 5.6 yards per carry on his 49 attempts. Despite the ground game underachieving, QB AJ McCarron has been outstanding in his decision making over the past two weeks, completing 40-of-55 passes (73%) for 592 yards, 5 TD and just 1 INT. McCarron was very efficient in last year's win over Ole Miss too, completing 22-of-30 passes (73%) for 180 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Both of those touchdowns went to WR Amari Cooper, who finished with 84 yards on eight receptions. Cooper did not play last week because of a minor toe injury, but he will be back on the field Saturday. If he's still limited, McCarron has three other receivers that have topped 100 yards this year, including explosive junior WR DeAndrew White, who has a hefty 20.1 yards per catch with a pair of touchdowns. Fellow junior WR Christion Jones leads the Tide with 12 receptions, piling up nine grabs for 90 yards last week. The Tide defense and special teams have provided a great source of offense with five combined touchdowns already. Alabama's defense looked extremely shaky in its only SEC contest, allowing Texas A&M to compile a whopping 628 total yards of offense. The Tide were predictably much improved in this department last week, holding CSU to a mere 279 total yards, including 51 yards on 26 rushes (2.0 YPC). In last year's defeat of Ole Miss, the Tide picked off three passes and gave up only 218 yards to the Rebels.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (3-1) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (4-0) Line & Total: Ohio State -7 & 55.5
Opening Line & Total: Buckeyes -7.5 & 55

No. 23 Wisconsin bounced back nicely last week from its heartbreaking loss to Arizona State, and will look to keep rolling with a huge road victory over No. 4 Ohio State, winners of 16 straight games, on Saturday night.

Year in and year out, the Wisconsin Badgers have proven to be one of the premiere teams in the country when it comes running the ball. That has not changed under new head coach Gary Andersen. Entering week 5, Wisconsin leads the country with 1,399 rushing yards, which is 150 more than Ohio State, the nation's second-most prolific ground game with 1,244 yards. Even more impressive, the Badgers are averaging an incredible 8.0 yards per carry. It has been a two-man crew as Melvin Gordon (624 yards, 11.8 YPC, 7 TD) and James White (442 yards, 3 TD) do an outstanding job of following their offensive line and getting to the second level. However, QB Joel Stave has done a very good job of making defenses have to respect the Badgers' passing game as well. While the Badgers are 7.5-point underdogs going into this game, that suits Andersen just fine considering he's 15-2 ATS as a road underdog as a college coach. When Ohio State star QB Braxton Miller went down with his injury, there were questions on what direction the Buckeyes would go with their offense. Two games and 10 touchdown passes later, backup QB Kenny Guiton hasn't missed a beat. Both quarterbacks are expected to guide one of the nation's highest scoring offenses (52.5 PPG, 4th in FBS). Buckeyes RB Carlos Hyde was suspended for the first three games because of off-field issues, but RB Jordan Hall leads the nation with eight touchdowns. He is not the biggest running back at 5-foot- 10, 200 pounds, but he is extremely shifty. A very interesting thing to look for in this matchup is the way Urban Meyer game plans for the Badgers. Andersen was an assistant for Meyer at Utah.

Wisconsin is 18 seconds away from being undefeated heading into this game after its controversial loss to Arizona State two weeks ago. The Badgers currently rank 25th in the country in scoring (41.0 PPG) and will look to use their offense to control the time of possession on Saturday. Last season, Wisconsin was able to rush for 206 yards, but more importantly, had the ball for over 37 minutes in a 21-14 overtime loss to Ohio State. However, the Badgers are more than capable of stopping the Buckeyes, currently ranking 10th in points allowed at 10.5 per game. Freshman Sojourn Shelton has shown the potential to become of the best defensive backs in the country, grabbing two interceptions in the first four games of his career. He has also done a very good job in helping with the run, something that is extremely rare to see in a young cornerback. Look for him to get matched up with top WR Devin Smith, who has produced many big plays for the Buckeyes in his career.

The Buckeyes have reached 40 points in all four of their wins, which includes a hefty 76-point performance against Florida A&M last weekend. With Miller back in the lineup, look for Ohio State to look to get back to really using the rushing attack, while not throwing the ball nearly as much. The Buckeyes defense has some major flaws to look out for though, especially in the secondary. Even though they defeated their lone BCS opponent (California) two weeks ago, they gave up 503 total yards, including 371 through the air. The defensive line has to win the battle and not let Gordon and White get to the second level, or the Buckeyes could see their 16-game win streak and national title dreams go down the drain.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon Action

Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls (+19, 47)

Miami Senior quarterback Stephen Morris suffered an ankle injury last week, but is expected to play. The Hurricanes have allowed only 29 points in three games, keyed by junior linebacker Denzel Perryman’s 20 tackles.

South Florida’s quarterbacks are struggling and five defensive touchdowns have been scored against the Bulls. Sophomore Steven Bench, a transfer from Penn State, is expected to be the third different starter at quarterback after completing 8-of-23 passes for 128 yards in the 28-10 loss to Florida Atlantic on Sept. 14. The Bulls have turned the ball over eight times.

LINE: Miami opened -20.5 and has moved as low as -18. Total moved from 48.5 to 47.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NE 7 mph.


* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers (+19, 57)

Oklahoma State tallied 115 points in its last two games and is tied for 10th in the country in scoring at 45.3 points per game coming out of an early bye week. Senior Jeremy Smith leads the team with six rushing touchdowns, including three first-half scores in the Cowboys’ 59-3 win against Lamar last week. Oklahoma State racked up 426 total yards in that victory.

West Virginia redshirt freshman Ford Childress is expected to start his third consecutive game despite floundering against the Terrapins last week. West Virginia has scored seven total points in its two losses. Coming off a 37-0 shutout to Maryland, the Mountaineers will look to stay above .500 under third-year coach Dana Holgorsen, who served as Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator in 2010.

LINE: OSU opened -20.5 and has moved to -19. Total moved between 57 and 58.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 60s, clear skies, winds 5 mph SE


* Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-0 in Mountaineers last seven games overall.

South Carolina Gamecocks at UCF Knights (+7, 53)

The Gamecocks, whose only loss was at Georgia, 41-30, are coming off a bye following a 35-25 home win over Vanderbilt. Senior quarterback Connor Shaw is completing 64.9 percent of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns without an interception.

Central Florida enters Saturday's game unbeaten and with arguably the more impressive win. The Knights (3-0), who have scored at least 30 points in their first three games of a season for the first time in school history, are coming off a 34-31 upset of Penn State in Happy Valley.

LINE: UCF opened +7.5 and moved to +7. Total steady at 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s, 19 percent chance of rain, winds NE 12 mph


* Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Gamecocks last six road games.

Oklahoma Sooners at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3.5, 50)

The Irish used their passing game to stretch Michigan State and put pressure on the cornerbacks last week, drawing several penalties that kept drives alive and helped lead to a 17-13 triumph. Notre Dame is looking for its 11th straight home win.

Oklahoma is getting its biggest test of the first month and had an off week to prepare for the Fighting Irish after trouncing Tulsa on Sept. 14. The Sooners are bringing a different starting quarterback into this matchup, with junior Blake Bell proving himself after passing for 413 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Tulsa.

LINE: Notre Dame opened -1 and moved to +3.5. Total moved from 48.5 to 50.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds south 12 mph


* Sooners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Fighting Irish are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 25-9-1 in Fighting Irish's last 35 non-conference games.

LSU Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 62)

The Tigers have outscored opponents 173-88 and have not trailed at any point, but they also haven't yet played in a hostile environment like they'll face between the hedges. LSU's offense has taken flight under new coordinator Cam Cameron, as the Tigers have topped 30 points in their first four games for only the third time in history - and the first since 1928.

The Bulldogs put a 14-game home winning streak on the line and are after their second home win over a top-10 opponent after a 41-30 victory over South Carolina two weeks ago. Georgia's offense has been dynamic with quarterback Aaron Murray and running back Todd Gurley - the SEC's leading rusher at 125.7 yards per game.

LINE: Georgia opened -4.5 and moved to -3. Total steady at 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds ENE 6 mph


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
* Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (+23.5)

Spurred by the country’s 19th-ranked running game, the Seminoles look to extend a seven-game win streak in ACC play. The Seminoles have been remarkably efficient on offense, averaging 8.8 yards per play - the third-best mark in the nation. However, the defense has created only four turnovers and allowed 43 more rushing yards per game than it did a season ago.

Boston College, which had the FBS' 10th-worst run defense in 2012, appeared to be making strides in that area until it surrendered 257 yards in a 35-7 loss at Southern California last Saturday. However, the Eagles’ best chance at winning this game may come behind running back Andre Williams, who leads the conference in rushing.

LINE: FSU opened -22.5 and moved to -23.5. Total moved 52 to 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s, clear skies, winds east 6 mph


* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2-1 in Seminoles last nine games overall.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-28.5, 58.5)

The Demon Deacons have lost 32 straight games against teams ranked in the Top 5 dating back to a victory over Tennessee in 1946. Wake Forest is 9-73 all-time in road games against ranked programs.

Clemson QB Tajh Boyd had a field day against Wake Forest last season, throwing for five touchdowns and setting a school record with 428 yards. coach Dabo Swinney said that WR Martavis Bryant will have his playing time reduced against Wake Forest for making a throat-slashing gesture after one of the scores.

LINE: Clemson opened -27.5 and moved to -29. Total steady at 58.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds ENE 5 mph


* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 17-8 in Tigers last 25 conference games.
* Tigers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening Action

Mississippi Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 55)

The Rebels are after their first 4-0 start since 1970, but haven't beaten Alabama since 2003 and have only one victory in 25 trips to Tuscaloosa, Ala. he Rebels also have an explosive star in running back Jeff Scott, who set career highs in rushing yards (164) and all-purpose yards (243) against Texas.

The Crimson Tide's offense has been inconsistent and struggled to get going in last week's win over Colorado State. The defense has not been as dominant as in years past, but Vinnie Sunseri has a pair of interception returns for touchdowns to contribute to five non-offensive touchdowns in three games.

LINE: Alabama opened -16.5 and has moved to -14. Total movef from 56.5 to 55.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds east 4 mph.


* Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington Huskies (-10, 62)

While the defense has spearheaded the strong start, the Wildcats are averaging 43.7 points behind a rushing attack – led by junior Ka’Deem Carey – that ranks fifth nationally with 322.3 yards per game. Carey has 299 yards despite missing the opener due to a suspension and has rushed for 100 or more yards in each of his last six games.

The No. 20 Huskies have topped 500 total yards in each of their first three games. Junior middle linebacker and defensive leader John Timu (18 tackles) is back after missing a game with a shoulder injury and still hasn’t forgotten the painful feeling from when Arizona racked up 277 rushing yards and 533 overall in last season’s meeting.

LINE: Washington opened -7 and moved to -10. Total moved from 63.5 to 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s with 100 percent chance of rain, winds SSW 11 mph.


* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks (+14, 62)

Texas A&M scored at least 40 points in its first four games for the first time in school history. QB Johnny Manziel has accounted for 15 touchdowns while averaging 370.8 yards of total offense per game and completing 70 percent of his passes.

The Razorbacks are starting the toughest stretch of their schedule with their meeting against Texas A&M, followed by a game at Florida, a home contest against South Carolina and a visit to Alabama. After rushing for 883 yards in its first three games, Arkansas was held to 101 yards against Rutgers.

LINE: Texas A&M opened -14 and is as high as -15. Total moved from 62.5 to 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 74 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds south 7 mph.


* Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Razorbacks are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games.
* Under is 6-2 in Aggies last eight road games.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+12, 47)

Tyler Murphy, a junior, was the choice for the Gators after junior Jeff Driskel suffered a season-ending broken right leg during the first quarter of last week’s league opener against Tennessee. Murphy finished with 218 total yards while running for one touchdown and passing for another in the 31-17 victory, good enough to earn another shot against the Wildcats.

Kentucky also lost starting quarterback Maxwell Smith to a right shoulder injury during its most recent game, but he was back at practice this week and the Wildcats are anticipating he'll be in the starting lineup for their conference opener against the Gators.

LINE: Florida opened -14 and moved to -12. Total moved from 45.5 to 47.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds SW 5 mph.


* Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Kentucky.

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6, 55.5)

Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon – the conference’s Offensive Co-Player of the Week – leads the nation with 624 yards on the ground while his seven rushing touchdowns rank third in the country. He is joined by senior running back James White – who is the FBS' active career leader in rushing yards (3,013).

Although backup Kenny Guiton has thrown for a school-record 12 touchdowns over the past three weeks in place of QB Braxton Miller (sprained left MCL), coach Urban Meyer will likely turn back to his regular starter.  Gordon led the Buckeyes to an average of 64 points in his two starts.

LINE: OSU opened -9.5 and moved to -6. Total moved from 54 to 55.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds SSE 5 mph.


* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.

Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (+9.5, 47.5)

The Cardinal will be without star safety Ed Reynolds for the first half, a result of a hit to the helmet last week. Stanford enters the game winners of 11 straight, the second-longest streak in the nation. Stanford G David Yankey will miss the game because of an unspecified "family situation".

The Cougars, ranked 10th in the nation in total defense, have won three straight for the first time since 2006 and are allowing 12 points per contest. Leach's offense still remains formidable as quarterback Connor Halliday has already thrown for more than 300 yards three times.

LINE: Stanford has remained steady at -9.5. Total moved from 48 to 47.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 50s, 100 percent chance of rain, winds SSW 11 mph.


* Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-36, 84)

Golden Bears freshman quarterback Jared Goff leads the nation in passing at 435.3 yards per game, and he’ll need another strong effort to keep pace with the explosive Ducks. Cal has yet to hold an opponent to less than 30 points and ranks 119th among the 123 FBS teams in points allowed per game at 42.

The Ducks are holding opponents to an average of nine points and are ranked second in the country in turnover margin at plus-2.3.  Oregon has outscored its opponents 184-27 and has won four straight in the series.

LINE: Oregon opened -34.5 and moved to -36. Total moved from 84.5 to 84.

WEATHER: Temperatues in the mid 60s, 100 percent chance of rain, winds SSW 12 mph.


* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Oregon.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors (+18.5, 58.5)

After snapping a seven-game losing streak against Boise State last week, No. 23 Fresno State looks to avoid a letdown. QB Derek Carr has been nearly unstoppable in the Bulldogs’ up-tempo offense, and sophomore Davante Adams has caught a touchdown pass in 11 straight games.

Hawaii starting quarterback Taylor Graham suffered an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the first half of last week’s 31-9 loss at Nevada, and is listed as day-to-day. The Rainbow Warriors used three quarterbacks after Graham left the game, and they combined to commit six turnovers, including four interceptions.

LINE: FSU has been steady at -18.5. The total moved from 58 to 58.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 30 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 9 mph.


* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Hawaii.
* Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Hawaii.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Big Ten Report - Week 5

In Week 4, the 12 schools in the Big Ten went 8-3 straight up and 5-5-1 against the spread. Wisconsin took care of Purdue in the first conference game of the season while Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, and Iowa all cruised to non-conference home blowout. The 'over' went 5-5 last weekend.

Ohio State (-7, 54.5) vs. Wisconsin

With Penn State banned and Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue looking like also-rans in the Big Ten, this is arguably the Leaders Division championship between the Buckeyes and Badgers. Ohio State will get QB Braxton Miller back for its Big Ten opener against Wisconsin, but we're not so sure they aren't better off starting backup Kenny Guiton, who has 664 passing yards and 13 TD in Millers absence in less than three full games. If anything it proves that OSU's offense is much more than a one-man show this year as there its lots of talent at the RB & WR spots to help lead the team this season. Defensively the Buckeyes have been great (13th in total "D"), but they will face its toughest test this week. More specifically, that 9th ranked rush defense will be tested against Wisconsin's 3rd ranked rushing offense. The Badgers average 349.8 rush yards per game this season and UW RB Gordon leads the nation with 624 yards on a ridiculous 11.8 YPC average. Wisconsin notched 206 rushing yards against the Bucks last year and has averaged 155.6 YPG over the last five meetings (only once were they held below 118 yards). Wisconsin bounced back nicely last week against Purdue after that controversial loss at Arizona State the week prior. The Badgers had +366 yards and +10 first downs over the Boilers. They rushed for 388 yards (8.1 YPC) and five touchdowns in the 31-point victory. Defensively UW is playing at a high level. The Badgers rank 6th in total defense, 6th against the rush, and 10th in points allowed. The most concerning aspect for the Badgers heading into Ohio State is QB Stave, who has been suspect at best this season. UW has always favored rushing over passing and that's no different this season (174 rush attempts to 99 pass attempts). But if the Badgers rushing attack is stifled, Stave hasn't proven that he can be depended on. Stave has had four uneven performances with 63.2% completions and 6 TD & 3 INT through four games. OSU is 5-1 SU & ATS in the last six meetings with Wisconsin and they are 3-0 SU & ATS the last three games at the Horseshoe.

Minnesota (+1, 47) vs. Iowa

Minnesota had its biggest win of the year to date in a 43-24 win over a quality San Jose State squad. Credit the Gophers for overcoming a big game from SJSU's QB and NFL prospect Fales. Fales had 439 passing yards and three scores, but the Goph's were able to pick him off twice and limit the Spartans to just 11% conversions on 3rd down. Minnesota used its running game to keep Fales off the field. The Gophers only passed the ball 12 times compared to 67 rush attempts. QB Leidner and RB Cobb combined to rush for 276 yards and six touchdowns. That helped Minny hold onto the ball for 41 minutes (compared to just 19 for SJSU). Minnesota opens Big Ten play this week as Iowa travels to Minneapolis for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. Kirk Ferentz's team is on the rise after its most complete performance of the season. Iowa had four offensive touchdowns, two defensive touchdowns, and two special teams' touchdowns in its 59-3 blowout over Western Michigan. The Hawks "D" held WMU to just 209 total yards and nine first downs while forcing four turnovers. Many were skeptical that Iowa would have a letdown game after its win over in-state rival Iowa State, but the Hawks silenced critics with a momentum building win. Iowa is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meetings with the Gophers, but Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in the last seven and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark at home.

Illinois (-24.5, 50.5) vs. Miami (OH)

The Illini host Miami of Ohio this Saturday in their final non-conference game. Illinois will be playing its fourth straight home game (September 14th game was at Soldier Field in Chicago against Washington, so basically a home game). They are off of a bye and hungry for redemption after suffering their first loss of the season in their last game. Illinois has been much better offensively this season than they were a year ago. QB Scheelhaase is finally starting to realize his potential and is completing 64% of his passes with 7 TD and just 2 INT. They've already scored 111 points this season, more than half of what they scored through 12 games a season ago. Defensively they still need work, but Miami won't present much of a challenge here. The Redhawks had just 87 total yards in last week's loss to Cincinnati. They've scored just 21 points through three games and rank near the bottom in every major offensive statistical category. They're getting outgained by an average of 395 yards per game and outscored by 28 points per game this season. QB Boucher is completing just 40.4% and their leading rusher has 59 yards. This offense is on pace to be historically bad. Illinois is 0-9 SU following its bye since 2004 and they are just 3-8 ATS over the previous 11 as a 20+ point favorite.

Purdue (+3.5, 58) vs. Northern Illinois

Road trips to Madison to take on Wisconsin have not been kind to Purdue recently, and last week was no exception. The Boilers gained just 180 yards and tallied 12 first downs offensively. QB Henry completed just 18-of-36 attempts with 1 INT and they notched just 45 rushing yards on 2.1 YPC. The defense was arguably worse. PU allowed 546 total yards, including 388 on the ground en route to a 41-point output from Wisconsin. It was a discouraging result after such an encouraging performance against Notre Dame the week before. Purdue has problems across the board right now as they rank 123rd nationally in total offense (out of 126 teams) and 80th in total defense. The schedule doesn't do the Boilers any favors as 2012 BCS Busters Northern Illinois and star QB Jordan Lynch come to town. NIU is 3-0 and has already beaten Big Ten Iowa. QB Lynch has 662 passing yards, 404 rushing yards, and 9 total touchdowns. The Huskies have scored 30 points or more in each of their three games while the Boilers have yet to surpass 24 points. If anything the Boilers should see some success against this NIU "D" that ranks 115th in total defense and 101st in scoring defense. This is only the fifth time since 1997 that the Boilers are home 'dogs against a non-conference opponent. They are 3-1 ATS in the previous four occurrences.

Northwestern - BYE

Northwestern seemed to sleepwalk through its game against FCS Maine last week. The Wildcats of last week did not resemble the same squad that dominated Cal, Syracuse, and Western Michigan the prior three games. Against Maine they were outgained and had fewer first downs. They were never in serious danger of losing the game, but it was an odd sight to see Northwestern look so mediocre. Maybe they were flat or maybe coaches were limiting the playbook as they have a big game against Ohio State on deck. When OSU comes to town it will be a ruckus crowd that greets them for an early season statement game. RB Venric Mark is expected back for that contest.

Michigan - BYE

Almost losing to Akron at home could've been dismissed as a letdown from a big win over Notre Dame the week prior. A near defeat at UConn last week is cause for concern for the Wolverines. Michigan won't stay perfect much longer if QB Gardner keeps turning over the ball (he leads the nation with 10 turnovers). Last week he completed just 11-of-23 passes for 97 yards with 2 INT. The defense is there, but Coach Brady Hoke and his staff have plenty of issues to address this week before the Jug game against Minnesota.

Nebraska - BYE

Following a turbulent week that featured a bad home loss to UCLA and release of a recording of coach Pelini blasting the Husker faithful, Nebraska got a much needed blowout victory over FCS South Dakota State. QB Martinez did not play but the offense still racked up 645 yards and 59 points - eclipsing 300 pass yards and 300 rush yards. The defense still needs a lot of improvement. This unit surrendered 465 yards and 25 first downs to the Jackrabbits. The sample size is large enough now to show that this defense hasn't improved from a year ago. Illinois visits Lincoln next week.

Michigan State - BYE

The Spartans suffered their first defeat of the season at Notre Dame last week. They arguably outplayed the Irish, but couldn't put points on the board when it mattered in the 13-17 loss. Defensively there aren't many teams stronger than MSU. Sparty held ND to just 220 yards and 14 first downs and now ranks 1st in total defense, 3rd against the pass, and 2nd against the rush. The Big Ten legends race is wide-open, but MSU won't make much noise until they get consistent QB play and results from the offense. Next up is a road trip to Iowa.

Penn State - BYE
After suffering a home defeat vs. Central Florida two weeks ago, Coach Obrien had his troops ready for redemption against Kent State last week. Penn State shut out KSU and held them to 190 yards and nine first downs. Offensively this was one of the first full games that QB Hackenberg really looked like a true freshman. He completed just 13-of-35 passes for 176 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. The offense rode the running game that tallied 287 yards on 5.4 YPC. Next up for the Nittany Lions is a road trip to Indiana.

Indiana - BYE

Indiana was abysmal in last week's 17-point loss to Missouri. The Hoosiers fell behind early and never really got things going on offense or defense. QB Sudfeld threw three interceptions and IU mustered just 98 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC. Defensively they allowed Mizzou to gain 623 total yards and 33 first downs (the 623 yards was a record for opponent yards given up at Memorial Stadiium). There's a lot to fix in the open week before Penn State comes to town for the Big Ten opener.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 5 of College Football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The South Florida Bulls are have just a 20 percent conversion rate on third downs. Only Florida International and Miami (OH) are worse. The Bulls are 19-point home dogs with the Miami Hurricanes in town.

- The West Virginia Mountaineers had six turnovers last week versus Maryland and are averaging 3.7 giveaways per game. Only Hawaii, Southern Mississippi and Western Kentucky are worse.

- Oklahoma State is tied for 10th in the nation in scoring with 45.3 ppg. The Cowboys are 19-point road faves at West Virginia Saturday.

- The worst offensive unit in the country? That would be the Miami (OH) Red Hawks who have just 448 total net yards through three games. Florida International is next-to-last with 603 total yards. The Red Hawks are 25-point road dogs at Illinois.

- Central Florida is a 7-point home dog with South Carolina visiting. The Knights will have to put their unblemished 3-0 ATS mark on the line without starting LB Willie Mitchell who will miss his second straight game following his DUI arrest on Sept. 7.

- The SMU Mustangs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with TCU. The Horned Frogs are 19.5-point home faves Saturday.

- Northern Illinois and Purdue have met once before. NIU won 28-21 and covered as 9.5-point dogs back in 2009. The Huskies are 3.5-point road faves Saturday.

- The Tennessee Volunteers host the South Alabama Jaguars Saturday. Tennessee is 8-0 all time against teams from the Sun Belt Conference and is an 18.5-point fave.

- Pitt is a 5.5-point home fave with the Virginia Cavaliers visiting on Saturday.

- Virginia is ranked No. 2 nationally in pass efficiency defense, which could bode well against pass-happy Pitt this weekend

- The UNC Tar Heels are 12-point home faves versus East Carolina. The Heels are 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings with the Pirates.

- Navy is the No. 1 rushing team in the nation with 398 yards per game. Western Kentucky's defense allows 200 rushing yards per game which ranks them 89th in the country. The Midshipmen are 3-point road faves.

- The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between Bowling Green and Akron. The Falcons are 14-point favorites at home.

- The Colorado Buffaloes have not played a game since Sept. 7. Their game versus Fresno State was postponed due to weather. The Buffaloes are 11-point dogs at Oregon State.

- The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a 58-55 loss to Pitt in the second-highest scoring game in ACC history. The host the Troy Trojans with a total of 68.5.

- The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between Toledo and Ball State. The Cardinals are 2-point home faves Saturday.

- Buffalo hosts UConn with the game currently a pick. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Bulls.

- Clemson hosts Wake Forest with the total currently sitting at 58.5. The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

- The Colorado State Rams lead the all-time series with UTEP 24-10. The Rams are favored by two touchdowns at home Saturday.

- The Oklahoma Sooners haven't lost a regular season game since losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 30-13 in Week 9 last season. The Sooners are 3.5-road dogs at South Bend.

- The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of four teams with an Over/Under record of 4-0 (LSU, New Mexico State, Troy). The Hawkeyes are on the road to face Minnesota with a total of 46 Saturday.

- The North Carolina State Wolpack have played under the total in eight straight home games. They've allowed an average of 16.6 points in those eight home games. The Wolfpack host Central Michigan and the total is currently 52.

- Florida State QB Jameis Winston leads the nation with a 78.1 completion percentage and is second with a 210.5 QB rating. Winston will look to build on those numbers in Boston as the Noles are 23-point road faves at Boston College.

- A pair of SEC heavyweights face off as Georgia hosts LSU Saturday. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings and Saturday's total is currently 62.

- Army and Louisiana Tech play in Dallas Saturday. The Under is 4-0 in Army's last four neutral site games. Total is 52.5.

- The UTSA Road Runners are one of five teams to start the season 4-0 ATS. Dating back to last season, the Road Runners are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. UTSA is a 2.5-point home dog with the Houston Cougars in town Saturday.

- The Temple Owls are one of 10 squads that have failed to successfully kick a field goal. They are 0-4 this season. Temple is a 7-point road fave against Idaho with a total of 55.5.

- One of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend is Ole Miss at Bama. The Rebels are 14-point dogs, but are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at Alabama.

- The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between Arizona and Washington. Saturday's total is currently 61.

- A pair of anemic offenses take the field as Kent State visit Western Michigan. The Golden Flashes are ranked 120 on offense and the Broncos are ranked 115 on offense. The Broncos are 2.5-point home faves with a total of 49.5.

- The Florida Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus the Kentucky Wildcats. The Gators are 12-point road faves Saturday.

- Texas A&M, a 14-point road fave at Arkansas Saturday, has scored 40 points in its first four games of the season for the first time in school history.

- Florida Atlantic are 14-point underdogs at Rice Saturday, but are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games.

- Wyoming is currently the top consensus pick (75%) as a 12-point road fave at Texas State Saturday.

- Louisiana-Monroe was a 63-10 winner at Tulane in Week 5 last year. The Warhawks are 12.5-point home faves in this weekend's matchup.

- The Missouri Tigers are 2-0 against Arkansas State, winning in 2004 and 2005 by a combined score of 96-37. Mizzou is favored by 21.5 at home against the Red Wolves.

- Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews needs one TD reception to become the school's all-time leader. He'll look get that against UAB who come in as a 19.5-point road dog at Vandy.

- Air Force will begin life without starting QB Jeleel Awini versus Nevada Saturday. The sophomore is "no longer a cadet in good standing and not eligible to represent the academy in any outside activities." Awini replaced No. 1 QB Kale Pearson who is out for the season with a knee injury. The Falcons have just two QBs left on the roster and are 11.5-point road dogs at Nevada.

- A pair of winless programs go face-to-face as San Diego state plays New Mexico State. The Aggies are 17.5-point home dogs and are 0-8 in their last eight games overall.

- UNLV and New Mexico have played under in the last four meetings in New Mexico. The total for Saturday is currently 54.

- An interesting Big Ten matchup has Wisconsin at Ohio State. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Badgers are 6.5-point road dogs.

- The Stanford Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at Washington State. Stanford is a 9.5-point road fave Saturday night.

- Southern Miss has played Over in nine of its last 11 road games. The Golden Eagles are on the road at Boise State with a total of 49.5.

- The total for the Cal versus Oregon game currently sits at 82. Since 1985, there have been 11 games with totals of at least 80 points. Six of them have gone under.

- USC and Arizona State square off in a Pac-12 battle Saturday Night at Sun Devil Stadium. The Trojans are 3.5-point road dogs and are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

- Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in the last four games in Hawaii. The Bulldogs are big 17.5-point road dogs in the Aloha State.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 28

Line Moves - Week 5
By Chris David

Week 4 Recap

Favorites: 3-0 ATS (3-0 SU)
Underdogs: 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU)
Totals: 3-3

For the third consecutive week, bettors riding the ‘chalk’ were able to find themselves a few easy tickets. At the same time, the underdogs failed to show up again in Week 4. Massachusetts was the only ‘dog to keep it close in its home matchup against Vanderbilt while both Hawaii and Idaho were pasted on the road. The early action on the totals resulted in a stalemate. Through three weeks of monitoring the total moves have resulted in a 7-9 record.

Week 5 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines around 12:00 p.m. ET last Sunday. Normally, we inform you of major moves of “Four Points” or more but this week’s installment will feature moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.


North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Open: Tar Heels -10
Friday: Tar Heels -13

Iowa at Minnesota
Open: Hawkeyes +3½
Friday: Hawkeyes -2½

Oregon vs. California
Open: Ducks -31
Friday: Ducks -37

Nevada vs. Air Force
Open: Wolf Pack -7
Friday: Wolf Pack -11

UNLV at New Mexico
Open: PK
Friday: Rebels -2


UAB at Vanderbilt
Open: Blazers +23
Friday: Blazers +19½

South Alabama at Tennessee
Open: Jaguars +21
Friday: Jaguars +17½

South Florida vs. Miami, Fl.
Open: Bulls +20
Friday: Bulls +16

Idaho vs. Temple
Open: Vandals +10½
Friday: Vandals +7½

Week 5 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday evening. Similar to the sides, there hasn’t been a lot of movement this week with the college football totals so we’re listing all of the moves of just “2 ½ Points” or more off the opening line. As mentioned above in the Recap, the total results have been hovering a tad under .500 through three weeks of monitoring.

East Carolina at North Carolina
Open: 58½
Friday: 61

UAB at Vanderbilt
Open: 55
Friday: 58

Iowa at Minnesota
Open: 48
Friday: 45½

Temple at Idaho
Open: 52½
Friday: 55

Stanford at Washington State
Open: 50
Friday: 47½

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