Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

DUNKEL INDEX

Kansas State at Texas
The Longhorns look to bounce back from last week's 44-23 loss to Ole Miss and build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Texas is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-4 1/2)

Game 307-308: North Texas at Georgia (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 76.712; Georgia 106.214
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 29 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Georgia by 33; 67
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+33); Under

Game 309-310: Florida International at Louisville (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 58.433; Louisville 103.193
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 45; 62
Vegas Line: Louisville by 41 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-41 1/2); Over

Game 311-312: Western Michigan at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 72.152; Iowa 86.479
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 14 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Iowa by 17; 50
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+17); Over

Game 313-314: Vanderbilt at Massachusetts (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 95.228; Massachusetts 59.835
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 35 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 32; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-32); Under

Game 315-316: Tennessee at Florida (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 86.561; Florida 106.134
Dunkel Line: Florida by 19 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Florida by 16 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-16 1/2); Over

Game 317-318: Wake Forest at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 71.342; Army 74.174
Dunkel Line: Army by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+3); Under

Game 319-320: Pittsburgh at Duke (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 86.193; Duke 86.228
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+4 1/2); Under

Game 321-322: Michigan at Connecticut (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 106.944; Connecticut 76.810
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 30; 57
Vegas Line: Michigan by 17 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-17 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Purdue at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 77.608; Wisconsin 104.810
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 27; 44
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 24; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-24); Under

Game 325-326: Ball State at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 78.165; Eastern Michigan 69.621
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 8 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Ball State by 11; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+11); Over

Game 327-328: Kent State at Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 77.775; Penn State 101.800
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 24; 49
Vegas Line: Penn State by 20; 54
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-20); Under

Game 329-330: Marshall at Virginia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 85.057; Virginia Tech 90.909
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 6; 58
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 9 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+9 1/2); Over

Game 331-332: Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 97.151; Miami (OH) 62.816
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 34 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 22; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-22); Under

Game 333-334: North Carolina at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 95.316; Georgia Tech 97.401
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2; 64
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 6 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+6 1/2); Over

Game 335-336: West Virginia at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 84.502; Maryland 93.740
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6); Under

Game 337-338: San Jose State at Minnesota (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 87.246; Minnesota 84.838
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 5; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+5); Over

Game 339-340: Troy at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 78.914; Mississippi State 90.566
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 11 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 14 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+14 1/2); Over

Game 341-342: UL-Monroe at Baylor (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 77.523; Baylor 111.867
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 34 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Baylor by 28 1/2; 74 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-28 1/2); Under

Game 343-344: Wyoming at Air Force (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 79.416; Air Force 82.848
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 3 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 4; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+4); Over

Game 345-346: Utah at BYU (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 97.446; BYU 94.761
Dunkel Line: BYU by 10; 58
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-7); Under

Game 347-348: Hawaii at Nevada (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 68.665; Nevada 84.227
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 15 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Nevada by 10 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-10 1/2); Under

Game 349-350: Utah State at USC (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 99.042; USC 91.784
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 7 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: USC by 7; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+7); Over

Game 351-352: SMU at Texas A&M (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 80.809; Texas A&M 115.742
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 35; 74
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 28; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-28); Under

Game 353-354: Rice vs. Houston (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 86.613; Houston 75.929
Dunkel Line: Rice by 10 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+3); Over

Game 355-356: Michigan State at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 94.267; Notre Dame 97.861
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+7); Over

Game 357-358: Kansas State at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 96.476; Texas 104.139
Dunkel Line: Texas by 7 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Texas by 4 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-4 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: Arkansas State at Memphis (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 77.014; Memphis 76.140
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 4 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+4 1/2); Under

Game 361-362: Louisiana Tech at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 67.368; Kansas 80.414
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 13; 56
Vegas Line: Kansas by 10; 50
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-10); Over

Game 363-364: Colorado State at Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 77.509; Alabama 113.944
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 36 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Alabama by 40; 52
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+40); Under

Game 365-366: Arkansas at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 87.616; Rutgers 88.524
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+1); Over

Game 367-368: Arizona State at Stanford (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 100.485; Stanford 110.951
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Stanford by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7); Over

Game 369-370: UL-Lafayette at Akron (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 78.789; Akron 75.935
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 3; 58
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 7 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+7 1/2); Under

Game 371-372: Idaho at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 56.890; Washington State 81.750
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 25; 52
Vegas Line: Washington State by 31 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+31 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 73.237; Florida Atlantic 76.088
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+4 1/2); Over

Game 375-376: Tulane at Syracuse (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 80.778; Syracuse 91.633
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 11; 51
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 14 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+14 1/2); Under

Game 377-378: Toledo at Central Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 86.364; Central Michigan 67.950
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 18 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Toledo by 13; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-13); Over

Game 379-380: Texas State at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 71.559; Texas Tech 101.036
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 29 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 26 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-26 1/2); Over

Game 381-382: Oregon State at San Diego State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 90.547; San Diego State 90.458
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 11; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+11); Under

Game 383-384: Auburn at LSU (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 84.301; LSU 108.892
Dunkel Line: LSU by 24 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: LSU by 17; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-17); Under

Game 385-386: TX-San Antonio at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 74.009; UTEP 71.133
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 3; 63
Vegas Line: Pick; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio; Over

Game 387-388: Missouri at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 92.760; Indiana 94.048
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3; 71
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under

Game 389-390: New Mexico State at UCLA (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.583; UCLA 100.606
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 39; 70
Vegas Line: UCLA by 43; 65
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+43); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Milwaukee
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 0-6 in Yovani Gallardo's last 6 home starts against St. Louis. St. Louis is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135).

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.547; Cubs (Wood) 14.256
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.341; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.581; Philadelphia (Cloyd) 14.279
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 13.330; Washington (Strasburg) 16.393
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-300); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-300); Under

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.548; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.033
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 14.898; Colorado (McHugh) 13.776
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.166; San Diego (Smith) 13.765
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-175); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.106; Oakland (Parker) 14.473
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+200); Over

Game 967-968: Houston at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Clemens) 14.361; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.637
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-260); Over

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.174; Detroit (Porcello) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 15.153; Boston (Buchholz) 16.983
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.835; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 975-976: Texas at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Garza) 15.488; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.634
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 977-978: Seattle at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 14.584; LA Angels (Williams) 16.634
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under

Game 979-980: San Francisco at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.641; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.912
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Over

WNBA

Los Angeles at Phoenix
The Sparks look to bounce back from their loss in Game 1 and take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2)

Game 659-660: Atlanta at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 104.384; Washington 116.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 12 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-2 1/2); Over

Game 661-662: Los Angeles at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 116.327; Phoenix 114.163
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 161 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2); Under

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River City SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan +16.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's just start with the fact that Iowa shouldn’t be favored by 16.5 over anyone! This is an improved team with HC Kirk Ferenz, but WMU has had success against Iowa (2-0 SU) and against Big 10 teams. WMU played Northwestern tough last week before falling 38-17 and one concern we have is the turnovers from the QB position as VanTubbergen has 5 picks to only 2 TD’s. Iowa beat their in-state rival Iowa State 27-21 last week and is 2-1 on the season, but we think that WMU has the experience and offense to stay close with Iowa. The challenge for the Broncos will be stopping RB Weisman for Iowa, who is averaging 5.0 yds per carry. If the Broncos can keep the turnovers to a minimum, they will be in this game in the 4th quarter.

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Carlo Campanella

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame    
Play: Michigan State +7

The public and oddsmakers are still grading Notre Dame on last season's 12-1 record. This year's crew is NOT as good on either side of the ball and the inflated line has caused them to open the year at 0-3 ATS. They lost to the only quality opponent they have faced this year, losing 41-30 to Michigan two weeks ago. Now they play an unbeaten 3-0 Michigan State squad that might be better than interstate rival Michigan while winning ALL 3 of their games by 10 points or more. Not only is Michigan State 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS during the last nine games in this series, but this is an especially poor match-up for Notre Dame's offense, which has struggled to run the ball while being held to 96 rushing yards or less in both of their last two games, also against Big Ten foes (96 rushing yards against Michigan & 91 rushing yards against Purdue). This MSU defense is holding foes to just 50 rushing yards per game and an incredibly low 1.8 average yards per rush! With the bigger BIG 10 Michigan State linemen dominating the line of scrimmage, we'll take the points with road Dog MSU, knowing that they're 13-4 ATS on the road following a home win behind HC Dantonio.

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Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WYOMING (-4) over Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys have held the Fly Boys to an average 18 points per game in the last four meetings of this series so they know how to limit the sometimes-tricky option attack. If they can hold Air Force down to around that same average, this will be a cake walk since the Wyoming offense has scored 34 points or more in its first three games and will be able to hang a similar number against this week against an injured and undersized Air Force defense. Lay the points.
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ARMY (+4) over Wake ForestFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest has proven to be one of the worst teams in the nation thus far and a loss here to Army will turn the heat up on the hot seat for head coach Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons allowed 424 total yards last week in a 21-19 loss to Louisiana Monroe, marking their fifth loss in their last six games dating back to last season. The loss wasn’t as close as the final score represents since UL-Monroe turned the ball over twice and botched two short-range field goal attempts. The new-scheme Wake offense is struggling mightily, gaining 15 rushing yards on 15 attempts in the loss – including just five yards in the second half. Grobe didn’t exactly instill confidence into his team after the loss when he told the media, “We're just a very lethargic, sloppy offensive team right now.” The Black Knights trailed by just seven points late in the third quarter last week against Stanford as 30-point dogs, before falling 34-20. The triple-option offense put up 333 yards against a stiff Cardinal “D” and will find plenty of running room here against a deflated Wake Forest team. Take the generous points.

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Baylor (-28.5) over Louisiana-MonroeSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year Louisiana-Monroe played some great games against SEC schools. But now no one from the major conferences will be taking them lightly this year. That includes Baylor, which only beat UL-M 47-42 last season. That was a wild game. And the Bears were lucky to escape with a road win there. The Baylor Bears have had one of the best offenses in the country this year, scoring 69 points and 70 points in their two games. I think that they will score at least 55 in this one, and I had this score closer to 56-10 in this one. I thought the line would be in the 30s because of how much Baylor has been scoring. Monroe is also coming off an upset win at Wake Forest last week. And they lost at Oklahoma 34-0 in the opening week. I don't think that the visiting Warhawks have enough defense to slow down Baylor's rested attack. And I don't think the Warhawks have enough offense to keep up in a shootout. Baylor should keep on rolling and will score over 50 points for the fifth time in their last seven games. Lay the points until it gets to -30.

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Wunderdog

Louisiana Monroe at Baylor
Pick: Baylor -29

Before RGIII put the Baylor Bears on the map, they had trouble getting the type of athletes to compete in the rugged Big-12. That has all changed now. Upon his departure, most thought the offense would leave with him but Nick Florence had something to say about that. Last year he led the Bears' offense to more yards and more points per game than RGIII di. That shows the fact that the Bears are now getting better athletes. It is now Bryce Petty's turn and all he has done is throw for an unthinkable 16.3 yards per attempt, as the Bears are running and passing to even greater heights. UL Monroe scored 0 at Oklahoma and just 21 points at Wake Forest. They will be hard pressed to produce enough to even make this remotely close. They had a good team last year and gave Baylor fits at home, but the Bears won't be caught off guard this time, and they have them in their house this time. This one looks like a colossal blowout. The Bears are 20-8 ATS in all games the past three seasons including 13-2 ATS at home and 10-1 ATS at home with a total set at 63 or higher. Under head coach Art Briles, Baylor is 19-8 ATS as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in expected shootouts (games with totals set at 63 or higher). Lay the points with Baylor.

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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at Washington St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho (0-3) has lost three games in a row to start their season after losing a 45-35 scoring fest at home when hosting Northern Illinois last week. It may be tempting to assume that this will be another high-scoring affair with this Vandals team -- but in their first two road games this season, they oly managed 16 total points in those 120 minutes of play. Furthermore, while Idaho held the Huskies to just 152 passing yards (while surrendering a whopping 350 yards on the ground), the Vandals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 170 passing yards. Washington (2-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 48-10 victory over Southern Utah as a 21-point favorite -- and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Don't assume that this Mike Leach coached team is all about putting points on the board either as his Cougars team gutted-out a low-scoring 10-7 victory at USC two weeks ago. And while Washington State passed for 410 yards last week, the Cougars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after accumulating at least 280 yards in the air in their last contest. Take the Under in this one.

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SMU vs. Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NCAA, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Texas A&M has been involved in some of the highest scoring games this season as it has tallied 83, 93 and 91 points in its first three games. Obviously, all three of those games went over the total and by a wide margin. While this week's posted total does not come close to those earlier scores, it is the highest that the Aggies have seen this season and that is based on those past results. Texas A&M is third in the nation in total offense and 112th in total defense which makes sense after seeing the scoreboard. Coming off a big game against Alabama in which they had to make a huge comeback to tighten the game up, I do not see the Aggies going full throttle on offense here. Additionally, I do not see the defense being as bad as it was last week as SMU is far from the offensive juggernaut that the Crimson Tide are. The Mustangs have played two games and both of their games have gone over the total as well but not by nearly as much. They are ranked 39th in total offense and 84th in total defense which are both fairly average but the difference is that SMU's closing totals were 59.5 and 51.5. Granted, Texas Tech and Montana St. are no Texas A&M but we are seeing an increase of close to four touchdowns in the total from the last game which is an astronomical jump. I think it is way too much of an overadjustment and the way the game is played out will also have a lot to do with it. SMU is still developing as an offense this season, averaging only 27 ppg and while the "Air Raid" offense of coordinator Hal Mumme will eventually find its place, it is not there yet and the Mustangs can ill afford to get into a shootout with the Aggies. On the other side, the Texas A&M defense will face a spread offense against SMU, quite a change of pace from the Crimson Tide's straightforward, balanced attack. "We're back in our comfort zone, playing another spread team," Aggies defensive coordinator Mark Snyder said. That is important in making it easier for preparation. The Under is 13-6 in the Mustangs last 19 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 4-1 in the Aggies last five games following an ATS win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Joe Gavazzi

Pittsburgh vs. Duke
Play: Duke +4

Following the MNF debacle against Florida St., the Panthers rebounded, with a week of rest, for a 49-27 win against outmanned New Mexico, a game they led 42-6. Now they must take to the road for their first ACC game. They won’t like the hospitality in Durham. This is a Blue Devil team that is changing for the better under 6th year HC Cutcliffe. No longer is this a Duke team who relies on the passing game to come through the back door for a cover. This year the Devils have one the most veteran OL’s in the nation resulting in an improved ground game that averages 187/4.4. Despite being torched by the GT Option last week, you will note that Duke is still firmly entrenched on our list of Defensive Dandies. QB Connette improving with each week as a replacement for QB Boone, must believe the wrong team is favored as we side with the better running game and defense as home underdog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Sean HiggsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan vs. ConnecticutFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Michigan -17.5FORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going to jump right into why I think the Wolverines are going to throttle the Connecticut Huskies this Saturday.
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Let’s start with Connecticut. First, we get them in a real emotional let-down situation. They just faced their old coach and you know these guys wanted to take it to him like they did the year before. It was bad enough they were coming off a home loss to Towson the week before. Ok, maybe they were looking ahead there. But even with their QB Chandler Whitmer passing for 349 yards, they still lost to Maryland who gave them 3 turnovers. When you rush the ball 33 times and gain 34 yards, it is going to be a long afternoon.
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Now we have Michigan coming to town for this out of conference affair. The Wolverines were 35 point favorites at home over the Akron Zips. All Michigan did in that game was come out absolutely flat, and scored a touchdown with under 3 left to take the lead AND needed a defensive stop to just hold on! Well, we aren’t giving them a total pass. They were off a big beating of Notre Dame, but to give up more yards to Akron then the Irish is just terrible.
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But that is exactly why we will back them here laying these points. Off that near upset, do we really think that head-coach Brady Hoke is going to go easy on these guys? Do we really think they are going to be overlooking any team right now? They do have the start of their Big 10 schedule ahead next Saturday. That is a home game vs Minnesota. It isn’t Michigan State or Ohio State or one of their ‘bigger’ rivalries.
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My Final ThoughtsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, Michigan barely eked out a win at home over lowly Akron. Yes, the Wolverines have the opening of Big 10 play next Saturday. No, they will not overlook Connecticut here. Listen. This team barely won last week. That game was home. There isn’t any way that this team is being allowed to come out flat, or to overlook anyone. This is a road game. They are in a spot where they need to make some big plays early and make a statement that last week was just a ‘we were off a big win over ND, playing Akron, and didn’t think it would be close’ type of game. The talent on the Wolverines is head and shoulders above the Huskies. I didn’t think UCONN would be that good this year, and I still don’t. The way Michigan won, and the Huskies let-down vs their ex-coach last week. It makes it an easy call for me to lay the big wood here. Take the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES to take the Huskies behind the wood-shed for a 25+ point beating.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Ray Monohan

Colorado State vs. Alabama
Play: Colorado State +41

No I don’t think we should be on upset watch this week but I think we should expect Alabama to be a little drained this weekend. Plus when you factor in that the coach at Colorado State is a former Saban lieutenant it makes me want to believe that they just might dial it back once the outcome has been determined making the backdoor cover easy to imagine. That same familiarity should also be a little bit of an advantage for the Rams who are strong up front on the offensive line with the entire line returning from last year. Don’t bet the farm but consider this one. Maybe use it in a teaser.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Brandon ShivelyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 78FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU has the fortunes of coming off a bye week as June Jones and his 'air-raid' offense prepare for a deflated Johhny Footaball team that has had a lethergic defense to start the season. SMU Co-OC (Jason Phillips) was the Co-OC @ Houston under Sumlin so he has some knowledge about Sumlins offense and he should be able to mirror Texas AM somewhat. SMU also brings Hal Mumme in as the passing game coordinator as he in the 'innovator' of the 'Air Raid' attack and SMU should be able to score tonight and keep this game within the posted number, but it will be close. SMU is coming off a bye week, and had Montana State in week 2, so they should be prepared for this game. Texas AM won last year 48-3 and was the first team that ever held a June Jones team without a touchdown. Tex AM gave up 509 yards to Rice in the season opener and 568 to Alabama. I expect the defense to be flat again for this game after the physical game with ' Bama. The Rice/Texas AM game went all the way to 83 total points scored. That was with Manziel out for the first half. Texas AM is averaging 53 PPG now over their first 3 games.SMU defensive line is very inexperienced and that should give Manziel plenty of time to dance around in the pocket. The total opened at 82 and has now dropped to 78.5 and I like this number as Texas AM will not let off the gas in this one, and SMU has 3 experienced wide receivers that can stretch the field and score touchdowns as well. Also, SMU's leading returning tackler from last year is listed as questionable for this game and if he is not 100%, then that is more possible missed tackles and more scoring. Projected score : Texas AM 56 SMU 27
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Colorado State vs. AlabamaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Colorado State +40FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HC coach McElwain was the OC @ ALA from 08’ to 11’ and has had this game circled for a while, trust me. He has the fortunes of having 9 returning starters to an offense that has been able to move the chains in their first 3 games. We know this is Alabama and that points will be harder to come by, but this is a Big Flat Spot for Alabama as they just one the game that they had been practicing for all summer long, and not to mention a conference game on deck vs. a good Ole Miss team. HC Nick Saban should be calling off the troops in the 4th quarter as there is no need to run up the score in this one. Saban has more respect for McElwain than to try to put up 50+ points. Look for Bama to score 45-48 points and for Colorado St to score 14-17 to keep this game within the posted number. Saban scheduled two games vs Col ST totaling $3million as thank you for s McElwain tenure @ Alabama, so I see a great deal of respect for McElwain. Colorado St has an experienced linebacking core as well as secondary and they should be able to stop Alabama a few times in essence turning some touchdowns into field goals. I totally understand this is Alabama, but is clearly is not a spot for them to be motivated about covering and this is more of a play against Alabama than it is a play on Colorado State, but I will be making a play on Colorado St this Saturday and suggest you do the same.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Alex Smart Sports

Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Texas -5.5

Alex Smart Sports Comp Selection Kansas State fans have a popular saying: “We own Texas.”The Wildcats are 5-0 against the Longhorns since 2003, including their 42-24 win last season. With that said, how badly do you think Longhorns HC Mack Brown and company want this game. With Texas near collapse with a 1-2 record.. another loss is out of the question. The combination of desperation and frustration Im betting dials up a big effort and translates into a win and cover for the Longhorns vs a over rated Kansas State side . Projected score: Texas 33 Kansas State 24

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Steve Merril

Texas State vs. Texas Tech    
Play: Texas State +27½

Texas State has a nice scheduling advantage for this game as they come in off a bye. The Bobcats have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and with 15 returning starters remembering their blowout losses to Texas Tech (108-20 combined), this game means something to them. In their last visit to Lubbock, the Bobcats actually led 10-9 at the half. They were driving for another score when they fumbled on the Tech 16-yard line and the game changed on that play as the Red Raiders scored 41 unanswered points over the next 18 minutes of football. The Bobcats have played good pass defense in their first two games albeit against weak opposition. They’ve allowed only 56.8% completions with just 1 TD pass and 2 interceptions. Texas State will get a stiff challenge in this game against the “Air Raid” passing attack of the Red Raiders, but they’ve had two weeks to get ready so they should be well prepared.

Texas Tech is in a flat spot for this game. Their season opener and last week’s game against ranked TCU were both on ESPN. Texas Tech also has a bye on deck so it’s highly likely that they are looking beyond this game. Walk-on QB Baker Mayfield came out of nowhere to play tremendous in the first two games after Texas Tech lost their starting quarterback in the off-season. But Mayfield completed just 21 of his 40 passes against TCU while throwing 1 TD pass and 3 interceptions. Texas State is 5-2 ATS their last seven times as a double digit underdog under HC Dennis Franchione. The Bobcats are in a tremendous scheduling situation to make this a game so we recommend taking the generous points with Texas State in this game on Saturday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Red Dog Sports

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Over 59

GT is led by QB Vad Lee who is from the Triangle area of North Carolina and he will be motivated to put up points against the Tar Heels on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets can run and pass under coach Paul Johnson and GT put up plenty of points in a 66-50 game last year.

UNC has QB Bryn Renner who has plenty of experience under coach Larry Fedora and the Tar Heels like to play fast. This total should be in the 60's. Look for an over on Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Dave Price

Tennessee +16½

Tennessee hasn't lost any sleep over last week's 59-14 loss at Oregon. This is the game it wants. The Vols were favored to beat Florida last season but suffered their eighth straight defeat in the series. They will be lacking no motivation as they look to bring this lengthy skid to an end. Plus, they will only benefit from stepping on the field with Oregon last week. Florida isn't even on the same planet as Oregon in terms of what it brings to the table offensively. The Gators are averaging just 20.0 ppg behind mediocre play from QB Jeff Driskel. They are coming off a bye but are clearly being overvalued here. We're talking about a team that has been held to 24 points or fewer in 6 of its last 8 games. That kind of scoring production will make it awfully hard to cover such a big number here. Consider that Tennessee has scored at least 17 points in each of its last 3 meetings with Florida. This is a huge rivalry game for the Vols, and I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Gators. Teams headed up by Butch Jones are 11-0 ATS all-time after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in their last game. The Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Bill Biles

West Virginia vs. Maryland    
Play: Maryland -4½


Maryland has looked much better on the offensive side of the ball than WVU. This is WVU first true test of the year and they wont be able to handle Maryland. C.J Brown and Stefon Diggs will be to much for the Mountaineers in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Jack Jones

Purdue vs. Wisconsin    
Play: Wisconsin -23½

Gary Anderson clearly stepped into a good situation at Wisconsin after leading Utah State to a school-record 11 wins last season. He inherited 14 starters and 52 lettermen from last year’s squad under Bret Bielema. The Badgers have opened 3-0 against the spread with blowout home wins over Massachusetts (45-0) and Tennessee Tech (48-0) before falling in a close one at Arizona State (30-32) as a 7-point underdog last week.

The tradition of a great running game at Wisconsin is continuing under Anderson. The Badgers are averaging 337 rushing yards per game and a ridiculous 8.0 yards per carry. They always have a fresh back as the trio of Melvin Gordon (477 yards, 4 TD, 12.9/carry), James White (297 yards, 2 TD, 6.6/carry) and Corey Clement (251 yards, 3 TD, 8.1/carry) are off to monster seasons. Joe Stave has been solid at quarterback as well, completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 603 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Purdue has been atrocious offensively in opening 1-2 with its only win coming at home against Indiana State (20-14) despite being a 17-point favorite in that contest. The Boilermakers are only averaging 17.0 points and 268.0 total yards per game thus far. They will certainly have a hard scoring against the Badgers, who are allowing just 10.7 points and 264.3 total yards per game.

Wisconsin has won seven straight over Purdue with the last five victories coming by an average of 30.0 points per game. That includes a 38-14 road victory for the Badgers in 2012 as they racked up 645 total yards, which was their second-highest total in school history. Wisconsin is 16-6-1 against the spread in its last 23 home games overall. The Badgers are 7-0 against the number in their last seven meetings with Purdue. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

Jeff Alexander

Utah State +7

Utah State has enough fire power to trade punches with USC and keep this one within the number. Road underdogs with an incredible offense averaging 450 yards or more per game, provided they averaged 7.25 yards or more in their previous game, are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Utah State's high-powered offense has made it a covering machine. The Aggies are on a 13-2 ATS run dating back to the start of last season. USC is just 4-12 ATS during the same span. It is also worth mentioning that Utah State is on an 8-0 ATS run following a win by 21 or more points while USC is on a 0-7 ATS slide after a game where it outgained an opponent by 125 or more total yards. The value lies with Utah State.

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