MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
Friday's MLB National League Betting Cheat Sheet
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-115, OFF)
Hot pitching stat: Roy Halladay gets the start for the Phils Friday. Doc had a decent outing on August 25 versus the Diamondbacks in his first start since May 5. He lasted six innings, allowing four hits and two runs in a 9-5 Phillies' victory.
Cold batting stat: Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins is 1-for-7 lifetime versus Cubbies starter Jeff Samardzija.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 10-2 in Samardzija's last 12 home starts.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-177, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Dillon Gee is 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in four starts versus the Nationals this season.
Cold batting stat: Nats 1B Adam LaRoche has struggled versus Gee. LaRoche has just three hits in 17 career at-bats versus the Mets righty.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The Nationals are 9-2 in Jordan Zimmermann's last 11 Friday starts.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 7)
Cold pitching stat: Pirates' southpaw Francisco Liriano is coming off a rough start in San Francisco on August 24. Liriano lasted four innings and surrendered four runs on nine hits in a 6-3 loss to the Giants.
Cold batting stat: Bucs slugger Pedro Alvarez is just 1-for-8 with four K's in his career versus Cards starter Shelby Miller.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under clear skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Cardinals are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-137, 6.5)
Hot pitching stat: Marlins star-rookie Jose Fernandez seems to get better as the year progresses. The 21-year-old righty is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in five August starts.
Cold batting stat: Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 0-for-5 in his career versus Braves starter Julio Teheran.
Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow from right field to left field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 5-1 in Fernandez's last six road starts.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (+130, 10)
Hot pitching stat: Reds starter Bronson Arroyo tossed eight innings of four-hit ball in a 3-0 Reds win over the Rockies on June 3 - his lone start versus Colorado this season.
Cold batting stat: Reds OF Shin-Soo Choo is 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his career versus Rockies starter Jeff Manship.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 9-2-3 in the Reds's last 14 versus the National League West.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-118, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Giants starter Tim Lincecum was shelled versus Arizona in his one and only start versus the DBacks this season. Lincecum gave up five runs on 10 hits in his five innings of work in the Giants' 9-6 win back on May 1.
Hot batting stat: Giants 1B Brandon Belt has been sizzling at the dish. Belt is batting .370 in August with five homers and 12 RBIs.
Weather: Due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, the roof could be closed at Arizona's Chase Field.
Key betting note: The Giants are 1-7 in Lincecum's last eight road starts.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 7)
Cold pitching stat: Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is coming off back-to-back losses and has an ERA of 5.11 over those two starts.
Hot batting stat: The Dodgers roster is batting a collective .341 with five homers and 11 RBIs in 88 at-bats versus Padres starter Erick Stults.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70ss with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers (+115, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Angels hurler Jered Weaver had a spectacular outing in his last trip to the mound. Weaver tossed eight innings giving up one earned run on three hits in a 7-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners on August 25.
Cold batting stat: Angels slugger Mark Trumbo will look to put a poor August behind him. Trumbo is hitting just .196 in 102 August at-bats seeing his average drop to .236 on the season. He has collected 21 RBIs for the month, however.
Weather: Due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, the roof could be closed at Miller Park.
Key betting note: The under is 12-3 in the Brewers last 15 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
Friday's MLB American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-130, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Yanks starter CC Sabathia is 2-2 in five August starts and brings a 5.58 ERA in the month to the mound Friday.
Hot batting stat: Orioles OF Adam Jones is 15-for-50 (.300) with three homers and 11 RBIs in his career versus Sabathia.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 6-0 in Miguel Gonzalez's last six starts versus the Yankees.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (-105, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Jays starter Mark Buehrle continues to pitch effectively for the club and is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA in five August starts.
Hot batting stat: Royals DH Billy Butler has hit well against Buerhle throughout his career. Butler is 30-for-57 with three homers and 15 RBIs versus the Jays starter.
Weather: Due to a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in Toronto, the roof could be closed at Rogers Centre.
Key betting note: The Royals are 9-22 in the last 31 meetings in Toronto.
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-148, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Tigers starter Rick Porcello is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts versus the Tribe this season.
Hot betting stat: Tigers 1B Prince Fielder is 4-for-10 with a pair of doubles and four RBIs in his career versus Cleveland starter Zach McAllister.
Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with wind blowing in from right field at 10 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 9-0 in Tigers last nine Friday games.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox (-180, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: White Sox starter Hector Santiago is just 1-1 in August, but has a solid 3.00 ERA in five August starts. The Pale Hose are 4-1 in his starts.
Cold batting stat: The Red Sox roster owns a collective batting average of .120 in 25 at-bats versus Santiago.
Weather: Skies will be sunny and temperatures will be in the low-70s. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The White Sox are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-300, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Rangers ace Yu Darvish is 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA in five August starts. The righty has 53 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings pitched this month.
Hot batting stat: Rangers OF Alex Rios is 3-for-6 with two homers in his career versus Twins starter Liam Hendriks.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in Darvish's last nine home starts.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (+100, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Mariners prospect Taijuan Walker will be making his major league debut in Friday's start.
Hot batting stat: Mariners 3B Kyle Seager is 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs in his career versus Astros starter Brad Peacock.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 10 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-0 in Peacock's last four home starts.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's (+110, 6.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rays ace David Price is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in five August starts.
Hot batting stat: A's 2B Alberto Callaspo is 6-for-15 (.400) with one double in his career versus Price.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 5-0 in Price's last five starts versus the Athletics.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays fresh off a rare series win over the Yankees try to halt Royals five game win streak. Left-hander Marc Buehrle will toe the rubber for manager John Gibbons' squad bringing a 10-7 record, 4.08 ERA to the mound. Buehrle extremely sharp for the Blue Jays of late has won five of his last seven starts with 6-1 team start record over the span. Buehrle will match pitches with Royals' Ervin Santana. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 2.69 ERA his last three and is 8-7 on the campaign with a 3.21 ERA. This being the first game of the series should peek the interest of sports bettors. Jays have a profitable 12-5 mark as a favorite opening a series at home including 4-0 handing the ball to Buehrle. On the other side, Royals are 8-12 opening a series on the road. Other compelling numbers in Toronto's favor, the Jays are 8-2 at the Rogers Center w/Buehrle, 11-5 last 16 hosting Royals. Add in the fact Buehrle has lots of experience vs Royals notching a 25-10 TSR since 2004 the recommended play here is Toronto.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
Friday's Top Action
By Kevin Rogers
Cardinals at Pirates
Probables: S. Miller (12-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. F. Liriano (14-6, 2.74 ERA)
Last series recap: The Cardinals failed to pull off the sweep of the Reds after getting shelled by Cincinnati on Wednesday, 10-0. St. Louis finished its homestand at 5-2 against Atlanta and Cincinnati, but lost each of the series finales. Pittsburgh looks to bounce back after dropping two of three at home to Milwaukee, including a 4-0 defeat last night. The Bucs have lost four of their last five games, entering tonight's action one game behind the Cards in the NL Central.
Pitching notes: Shelby Miller has lost all three starts against the Pirates this season, including a 5-1 defeat earlier this month as a home favorite. The Cardinals have won three of Miller's past four road outings, while the right-hander shut down the Braves in his previous start, a 6-2 win as a $1.30 home favorite.
Francisco Liriano makes his first home start since August 3 as the Pirates' southpaw is coming off four consecutive road outings. Liriano tossed a complete-game shutout against the Cardinals on August 14, his second complete game victory on the season (both on the road). The Pirates own a 7-1 record at PNC Park when Liriano takes the mound, including a 4-1 mark against division foes.
Indians at Tigers
Probables: Z. McAllister (7-7, 3.51 ERA) vs. R. Porcello (10-7, 4.49 ERA)
Last series recap: Cleveland heads into Detroit on a three-game skid after getting swept in Atlanta the last three days. The Indians' offense struggled to score runs by putting up just three runs, while all three games finished 'under' the total. The Tigers were on the verge of getting the broom treatment by the A's, but rallied for four runs in the ninth inning of a 7-6 triumph on Thursday. In spite of the victory, Detroit has won just two of its last seven games at Comerica Park.
Pitching notes: Zach McAllister's last loss came against the Tigers at Comerica Park on August 8, allowing six runs in 2.1 innings of work. Since that defeat, the Indians' righty has won each of his past three starts, including a pair as a road underdog. Each of McAllister's last four road outings has finished 'under' the total.
The Tigers have alternated wins and losses in each of Rick Porcello's last five trips to the mound, coming off a victory as a road favorite over the Mets this past Sunday. Porcello has been listed as a home favorite of at least $1.90 in each of his last four outings at Comerica Park, as Detroit is 3-1 in this stretch.
Orioles at Yankees
Probables: M. Gonzalez (8-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (11-11, 4.81 ERA)
Last series recap: Baltimore managed to avoid the sweep at Boston by holding off the Red Sox, 3-2. The O's need all the wins they can get heading into September, as Baltimore sits four games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Yankees also need to turn it on after dropping two of three at Toronto, while finishing their AL East road trip at 2-4 against the Blue Jays and Rays.
Pitching notes: CC Sabathia's numbers have gone down this season (4.81 ERA), but the southpaw has good career stats against the Orioles, including a 2-1 record in 2013. However, the Yankees have won just once in Sabathia's previous four home starts, while posting a 1-4 record the last five outings in the favorite role.
Miguel Gonzalez returns to the Baltimore rotation following a short stint in the bullpen, as the O's have won only one of his last five starts. Gonzalez pitched well in his previous start against the Yankees in early July, allowing four hits and one earned run in six innings. However, the Orioles' bullpen blew a 2-1 lead in a 3-2 walk-off victory by the Yankees.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 30
MLB Odds and Picks – Handicapping the NL MVP race
By: The Linemakers
LAS VEGAS -- With a little more than a month to go in the regular season, we have a relatively tight battle among five players to walk away with the 2013 NL MVP award. Ask three different baseball fans who they think should win and you’ll likely get three different answers because no one has stood out head and shoulders above anyone like Miguel Cabrera is doing on the AL side.
This final month of the season should separate one or two players from the rest of the contenders, and it will be based on key moments they had in elevating their team during the pennant race. Without anyone having the pure numbers to call themselves the leading MVP candidate, the final vote will come down to who can wow the Baseball Writers Association on a consistent basis throughout the seasons final month.
This weekend’s series at PNC between the Pirates and Cardinals will get the campaign trail started and start to shape votes as four of the top NL MVP candidates will be on the field. We aren’t allowed to offer odds in Nevada on voted-upon events such as the MVP award -- even though boxing has only three judges and is bet upon -- but we thought we’d make some odds anyway just for fun and make a case for each contender.
1. Andrew McCutchen, PITT: 5/7 (81 runs, 17 HRs, 74 RBIs, 27 SBs, .323 AVG, .912 OPS, 7.0 WAR)
If the Pirates win the division for the first time since 1992, he could cruise in with the award by simply being above average the rest of the way. He’s posted solid numbers this season in a league that doesn’t have any player with a monster power season or an insane batting average. He’s had a few key hits to win games this season, but he could really seal his fate over the next few weeks by keeping his team in the running until the final days. If Pittsburgh starts to fade a bit, and McCutchen hits only. 260 like he did last September, voters will move on to the next guy. Right now, he’s the favorite and it’s his award to take.
2. Allen Craig, STL: 6/5 (13 HRs, 96 RBIs, .317 AVG, .841 OPS, 2.2 WAR)
He has made the Cardinals look like geniuses by not matching Albert Pujols’ contract with the Angels, and he gets a few bonus looks from voters because of being able to fill Pujols shoes so well in the middle of the order. They needed a run producer and he has produced, and done it well enough to have his team one game ahead in the tough NL Central race. He scored even more bonus votes by hitting a grand slam Monday night while down 5-4 late to Cinncinnati in a key division battle in what was kind of like a “Natural” moment. More big moments like that, that carry the Cardinals to a division title, and he’ll be the MVP.
3. Yadier Molina, STL: 2/1 (10 HR, 60 RBIs, .333, .871 OPS, 5.1 WAR)
He already gets consideration because of his defense -- leads NL with 33 base runners thrown out -- and how effectively he calls a game and handles a pitching staff, but now we get into the rarified air of a catcher possibly winning a batting crown. Buster Posey did it last year and came away with the hardware, and if Molina is able to hang on to it while also leading the make-shift pitching staff to a division crown, he would be a hard player to bet against when the voters make their choices following the regular season. A few big hits in close games down the stretch could be the key. His only negative is that he’s got too many candidates to win the award on his own team. Voters will be split then trying to determine who was the biggest factor on his team if they win the division, and they have three solid candidates -- maybe even four if you count Carlos Beltran.
4. Matt Carpenter, STL: 9/2 (100 runs, 43 2Bs, 10 Hrs, 66 RBIs, .314 AVG, .860 OPS, 5.1 WAR)
Part of getting votes is being likeable, and everyone likes Carpenter simply because of his selflessness of playing wherever the team needed him. He’s not a second-baseman, but he’s handled it great and turned himself into a pretty good one while also currently leading the NL in runs scored, hits, and doubles. It’s safe to say the Cardinals wouldn’t be where they are right now without him, but is it enough to pass his own teammates in the voting? He can take matters into his own hands over the next month, beginning tonight in Pittsburgh.
5. Clayton Kershaw, LAD: 6/1 (13-8, 197 Ks, 0.88 WHIP, 1.72 ERA, 7.1 WAR)
He’s well on his way to his third ERA crown, his team is leading their division and he’d be about a 1-to-6 favorite right now to win the NL Cy Young award if we could offer it. And that’s a big if. He’s such an overwhelming choice right now to win the Cy, the books might have already conceded and taken it off the board. Winning the MVP however is a completely different animal. The sabermetric guys will tell you wins don’t matter, and it’s been proven by the Cy Young votes over the past few years, but to win the MVP award as a pitcher, his team should be better than 16-12 record the Dodgers have behind Kershaw. In Las Vegas, wins and losses are all that matter, and if you bet a unit on Kershaw every game this season, you’d be down -6.6 units. Las Vegas doesn’t get an MVP vote, nor does our criteria matter to the voters. However, we will say this: if none of the above candidates take charge and Kershaw does something absolutely magical in his final starts, he could pass them all in default kind of way.
Onto to today's picks....
The Pirates have gone 12-14 this month, yet still are only one game behind the Cardinals, as the two teams square off tonight in the first of a three-game set at PNC Park.
Francisco Liriano (14-6, 2.74 ERA) kicks things off for the Pirates and has handled St. Louis with ease in his last two starts against them. He held the Cards to a run over seven innings in a 9-2 win at PNC on July 29 and then went the distance in a 5-1 win at St. Louis on Aug. 14.
Liriano is only a -120 favorite against Shelby Miller (12-8, 2.90), and perhaps the best thing to like about Liriano – more than than dominating Cardinals hitters – is that he has come up big when the team needed him most. This will be his ninth start immediately following a loss, and in his previous eight, he’s gone 7-1 with a 0.75 ERA.
The Bucs don’t have too many more cracks at the Cardinals. After this series and three more next week at Busch Stadium, that’s it! And the Bucs have a much tougher schedule down the stretch. It‘s imperative for their division chances to make the most of these opportunities. Tonight, they’ve got their best on the hill to try and regain some momentum, and we like their chances.
Pirates (Liriano) -120 vs. Cardinals
Marlins (Fernandez) +125 at Braves
Royals (Santana) -106 at Blue Jays
Rays (Price) -112 at A’s
Second-half record; 73-65 (+1,282)
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