Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 30

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 30

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Texas Tech at SMU
The Red Raiders look to take advantage of an SMU team that is 5-15-1 ATS in its last last 21 games against Big 12 opponents. Texas Tech is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Raiders favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-5 1/2)

Game 149-150: Western Michigan at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 77.866; Michigan State 97.121
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 19 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 27 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+27 1/2); Over

Game 151-152: Florida Atlantic at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 64.085; Miami (FL) 99.430
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 35 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 32 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-32 1/2); Under

Game 153-154: Texas Tech at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 90.967; SMU 81.675
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 9 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-5 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 319-320: Samford at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST) 
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 60.429; Georgia State 55.451
Dunkel Line: Samford by 5
Vegas Line: Samford by 7
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+7)

Game 321-322: Morgan State at Army (7:00 p.m. EST) 
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 37.295; Army 66.675
Dunkel Line: Army by 29 1/2
Vegas Line: Army by 32
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (+32)

Game 323-324: Southern at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST) 
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 40.702; Houston 84.138
Dunkel Line: Houston by 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 40
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-40)

Game 325-326: North Dakota State at Kansas State (8:30 p.m. EST) 
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 90.697; Kansas State 107.482
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 17
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-14)

Game 327-328: Northern Arizona at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST) 
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 65.394; Arizona 93.741
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 35
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+35)

CFL

Hamilton at BC
The Lions look to bounce back from their 39-38 loss to Montreal last week and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. BC is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: BC (-6)

Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/27)
Game 231-232: Hamilton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 106.659; BC 118.827
Dunkel Line: BC by 12; 58
Vegas Line: BC by 6; 53
Dunkel Pick: BC (-6); Over

WNBA

Indiana at New York
The Fever look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. Indiana is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2)

Game 651-652: Indiana at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.683; New York 105.458
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: San Antonio at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.045; Tulsa 109.800
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 6 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Tampa Bay at Oakland
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's 2-0 loss to the Angels and build on their 5-0 record in David Price's last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.287; Cubs (Samardzija) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 15.550; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.331
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Over

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Washington (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.690; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.060
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-180); Under

Game 957-958: Miami at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 16.062; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.209
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+120); Over

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.205; Colorado (Manship) 14.769
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.604; Arizona (Delgado) 14.559
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Over

Game 963-964: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 16.572; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.543
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+180); Over

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 15.289; Detroit (Porcello) 16.661
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 16.701; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.622
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 14.581; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.903
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Santiago) 16.826; Boston (Dempster) 15.904
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+165); Over

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 13.896; Texas (Darvish) 16.465
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-300); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-300); Under

Game 975-976: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Walker) 13.119; Houston (Peacock) 14.283
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.418; Oakland (Parker) 14.800
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.539; Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.579
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Over

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland AthleticsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Rays open a three-game series with the Athletics in Oakland Friday evening they will send staff ace David Price to the mound knowing he is 9-3 away in his MLB career team starts during the month of August. In addition, Price is in commanding KW form since coming off the DL in July with 62 strikeouts and only 6 walks in eleven starts. With the Rays 8-2 the last ten game in this series, look for more of the same tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State/Western Michigan Under 44.5: State will play in many low scoring games this year, thanks to an awesome defense and an inept offense. The Under is 7-1 in State's last 8 home games and I don't expect this game to hit the 40's at all.

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For August 30, 2013

BookiesHunter

1* Texas Tech -4.5

55-27 run (67% win rate)

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

CFB Friday Night Free Play

North Dakota State +13.5 (1.15U)

Last season free plays finished 10-4 ATS

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marlins vs. BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami brings a terrible offense into Atlanta, the worst in baseball. The under is 20-7-4 in Marlins last 31 road games! At least they have a quality arm on the mound in Jose Fernandez (10-5, 2.30 ERA), with the team 9-3 under the total in his last 12 starts. The under is 15-5-3 in the Marlins last 23 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face righty Julio Teheran (10-7, 3.08 ERA) and the under is 10-2 in Teheran's last 12 home starts. And when these teams meet on this field the under is 18-8-1 in the last 27 meetings in Atlanta.

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Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox    
Play: Boston Red Sox

This game fits a nice system that is 14-1 and plays on certain home favorites, like Boston that are off a loss and are playing an opponent like Chicago that comes in off a 5 or more run win as a home favorite at -140 or higher. Chicago this year is 1-8 on the road when they played at home in their last game and have lost 15 of 20 on Friday. The Red Sox are off a 1 run home loss to Baltimore but they are still averaging over 6 runs per game the past week and they are a perfect 9-0 at home off a home loss. We will back Boston with Dempster over Chicago and Santiago tonight.

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Freddy Wills

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A's    
Play: Oakland A's

Oakland is on fire right now with the bats and they have hit lefties well all season scoring 4.71 runs per 9 at home. Over their last 10 games they have scored 9.64 runs per 9 against LHP while the Rays have scored 3.88 over that time. Price is solid but he just went through 4 starts on 4 days rest and posts a 4.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Price has given up 11 ER in 4 career starts in Oakland. Meanwhile Parker has a 1.07 ERA in his last three and has been solid against the Rays who are not hitting RHP as well as lefties themselves. It is important to note that the A's are 15-5 in their last 20 against starters with a WHIP < 1.15.

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Jeffrey Brandes

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Seattle Mariners

Mariners top prospect Taijuan Walker will make his Major League debut on Friday, after tearing up the Minors to the tune of 160 strikeouts in 141 1/3 innings. The 21-year-old will become the fifth-youngest player in Mariners history to start a game.

Peacock has been solid since returning to the rotation in his third stint in the Majors this year. He's 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his last four starts, allowing only 17 hits in 25 innings in that span. He's won his last two starts.

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Art Aronson

Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9

Yankees will start left-hander C.C. Sabathia (11-11, 4.81 ERA) on the mound versus the Baltimore Orioles. Sabathia allowed three runs in 6 2/3’s innings in an eventual loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start. Sabathia hasn't had his best season this year but has been decent versus the Orioles at home. Sabathia was good on April 12, yielding two runs with nine strikeouts in eight innings of a 5-2 win. Including the postseason, he's 6-1 with a 2.58 ERA in seven starts against Baltimore in the Bronx. The Orioles will send Miguel Gonzalez (8-6, 3.77 ERA) to the mound oppose Sabathia. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts against New York, including the playoffs. I know Sabathia has not been the stellar pitcher he usually is at this time of year but I think we can expect a good start from here as the history is on his side and the Yankees really need him. We should also note that the “under” total has the victor in eight of the last 10 games between these two teams in New York and I am betting it does the same in this situation. Take a good look at the “under” here.

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Bruce Marshall

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Ryan Dempster returns to active duty for the Bosox and will be on the mound tonight against the Chisox after serving a suspension related to throwing at Alex Rodriguez in a game vs. the Yankees on August 18. The problem for Boston is that it might rather have Dempster sit, considering his poor recent efforts that include a 7.40 ERA in his last four starts and 6.81 ERA in his last seven outings. At the moment, lots of value in this price with the quietly surging Pale Hose, who have won 10 of 12 and scored 5 runs pg during that stretch. Note that Chicago starter Hector Santiago has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts, and has pitched pretty well on the road as his 2.60 ERA away from the Cell would attest.

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Nick ParsonsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fact: Coors field is a hitters friendly park. Even my best friends 7-year old son knows this. But with a couple of decent starters facing off in the opener of this three game set, I believe the total will sneak below the posted number in the end.
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Bronson Arroyo (13-9, 3.42 ERA)
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Arroyo is a 6' 4", 195 pound 14-year veteran of the league. To say that he's "been there and done that" is an understatement.
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So it's something to say that Arroyo is perhaps throwing some of the best ball of his entire career right now.
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On Saturday he held Milwaukee to three earned runs off seven scattered hits while striking out six and walking none in his team's 6-3 victory.
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The right-hander has now won four straight, striking out six or more in each of those victories. But perhaps most amazingly, Arroyo has not walked a single batter during that span over 29 2/3's innings of work.
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Note that Arroyo owns a respectable 3.76 ERA on the road this year.
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Jorge De La Rosa (14-6, 3.28 ERA)
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De La Rosa gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings, which was good enough to earn a victory over the Fish on Sunday.
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The southpaw has an excellent opportunity to build off that victory as he's a near-perfect 8-1 with a tiny 2.58 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.
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The bottom line: These teams played a three game set in Cincinnati back in June and the total was 2-1. However, I firmly believe these competent hurlers have what it takes to battle each other into the latter frames and as a result will recommend a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

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Jimmy Boyd

Western Michigan +28

The Michigan State Spartans are coming into this game with a 0-7 ATS record in their last seven games as a home favorite. The offense for the Spartans averaged a mere 17 points per game last year, and this year they will be without one of the best backs in the league as Le'Veon Bell is gone.

The Western Michigan defense should be solid this year. They have Justin Currie and Johnnie Simon back, a duo that combined for over 200 tackles last season. Offensively, the Broncos should be solid with Dareyon Chance running the ball and wide receiver Jaime Wilson to handle the air attack. Chance finished last season with 947 rushing yards while Wilson had 792 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

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Wunderdog

Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +115

For the second straight season the potential of the LA Angels, considered to be a playoffs caliber team, has fallen short. The Angels will send their ace Jered Weaver to the mound for this one. Weaver has no doubt been one of the top pitchers in baseball in recent years, but there is a wide spread of what he has accomplished at home vs. on the road. Weaver is 81-31 at home, but a pedestrian 61-56 on the road, and just .500 the last seven seasons. He is also under .500 this year. The Angels have struggled as an interleague favorite as they carry the baggage of a 2-6 mark in their last eight into this contest. The Brewers have dominated weaker teams at home where they are a stunning 87-42 in their last 129 against them. The value goes to the home dog here, so play on Milwaukee.

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NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians + over Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Zach McAllister has delivered three consecutive quality starts as the Indians have won five of his last six. McAllister has allowed five or fewer hits in each of his last six starts as he has been very tough on opposing hitters. He did struggle in his last start against Detroit but a tight strike zone leading to free passes was the culprit as he only allowed four hits. McAllister has been just as good on the road vs. at home this season and Cleveland is 11-7 behind him. After getting swept in three tight games in Atlanta this is a critically important series for the Indians as while catching the Tigers is a long shot, the Indians are right in the wild card race. Cleveland's pitching staff has held foes to three or fewer runs in eight of the last nine games as the bullpen owns a 1.41 ERA in the last 10 games. Detroit is a great hitting team but Miguel Cabrera left yesterday's game and could sit out today. Detroit is just 9-10 in the last 19 games and there is little urgency for Detroit with a big division lead. Rick Porcello is the clear weak link in the rotation for the Tigers, featuring a 4.49 ERA with the Tigers only 6-6 in his home starts where he actually owns significantly worse numbers. Porcello has allowed at least three runs in four straight starts and after dropping a four game set at home earlier this month against Detroit this is a critical series for the Indians to gain some ground. The Detroit bullpen also has terrible recent numbers with a heavy workload after four straight starts of five innings or less.

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Western Michigan vs. Michigan StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 44.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan has dropped their first road game of the year the last eighteen years in a row albeit against BCS teams each time. Well number 19 is waiting for them in East Lansing on Friday. Even knowing that we do not have a play on the side our call in this one is on the total as Michigan State returns fifteen starters including their starting QB but questions remain on the offensive side of the ball. MSU has the edge on offense and a huge edge on defense; we note they are not known for putting a ton of points on the board so we look for a low scoring affair. Play the UNDER.

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Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech vs. SMUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: SMU +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech will be youthful on the sidelines and on the field this season. New HC Kliff Kingsbury is the youngest head coach in the BCS at just 34 years old. The Red Raiders return only 13 starters, and inexperience at the QB position. Kingsbury will get back to the Air Raid offense that was a staple under HC Mike Leach, but it will take time to run smoothly.
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SMU is light on returning starters (11), but the Mustangs return the majority of their skill players on offense. HC June Jones is always dangerous when given a lot of time to prepare, especially when he plays at home. SMU is 20-12 at home under Jones, including 8-3 as a home underdog. The Mustangs are playing an inexperienced team, but unfortunately, the line value is now gone. SMU would have been a much stronger play at +7, but after losing too many points of value, we’ll give the Mustangs a small lean on Friday night.

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Texas Tech vs. SMUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: SMU +5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For Friday, PLAY ON home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU, a marginal winning team from last season (51 to 60 win percentage), playing a team that had a winning record, in non-conference games. In the last 20 years, this college football system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent and has hit its last 10 in a row!

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Dave Price

Miami Marlins +125

Miami has an excellent chance to knock off the Braves with Fernandez on the hill. The Marlins are 7-1 in his last 8 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 1.33 ERA. He has a 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts - all Miami wins. With a total of just 6.5 set for this one, oddsmakers clearly don't expect the Braves to get much of anything off Fernandez. It is worth noting that the Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Atlanta will be missing a couple of its top bats tonight. Jason Heyward is out with a jaw injury and Justin Upton is expected to miss after being struck on the hand by a pitch Thursday. Teheran has a 4.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, and Miami has seen him twice this season while the Braves are yet to face Fernandez. Take Miami.

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