MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 8
MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 8
Thursday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (-115)
Pitching stat: Mets RHP Dillon is 0-1 in three starts since the All-Star break but has pitched seven innings in each outing while compiling a 2.14 ERA.
Batting stat: Mets 1B Ike Davis went 1-for-3 with his third double in two games to raise his average to a season-high .196.
Weather: Mid 70s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing SSW at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 19-8 in umpire Larry Vanover's last 27 Thursday games behind home plate.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-142, 6.5)
Pitching stat: Miami pitchers have limited opponents to a .234 batting average since to All-Star break.
Batting stat: Pirates 2B Neil Walker is 8-for-20 with three doubles in five games against Miami this season.
Weather: High 70s with a 62 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 18-7-1 in Marlins last 26 games as road underdogs.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (+101. 8.5)
Pitching stat: Control has been an ongoing issue over the past month for Cubs RHP Jeff Samardzija, who has walked five batters in three of his last six outings
Batting stat: PHillies slugger Domonic Brown, 25, became the youngest Phillie to reach 25 homers since Pat Burrell in 2002.
Weather: Low 80s with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing SSW at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-158, 7)
Pitching stat: Milwaukee RHP Donovan Hand is 0-3 with a 3.69 ERA in six games as a starter and has a 3.44 ERA in 12 relief appearances.
Batting stat: The Giants scored one run or were shut out in 10 of Lincecum's starts and scored a total of two runs in his last three outings.
Weather: Low 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 13 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 20-8 in Brewers' last 28 overall.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (-107)
Pitching stat: Dodgers LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu has failed to go past 5 1/3 innings and has allowed 11 runs and 27 hits over 15 2-3 innings in his last three road starts.
Batting stat: Dodgers LF Carl Crawford is 12-for-26 lifetime in St. Louis.
Weather: Low 80s with 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing ENE at 3 mph.
Key betting stat: Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 games as an underdog.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (+138, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Cleveland RHP Zach McAllister hasn't surrendered a home run since his May 23 victory, a span of 29 innings.
Batting stat: Cleveland hitters are batting a combined .210 with two home runs in 210 career at-bats against Detroit RHP Max Scherzer.
Weather: Low 70s with 22 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing WSW at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Tigers are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (+113, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Boston LHP Jon Lester has allowed just one homer in 60 1/3 frames against Kansas City while limiting it to a .176 batting average.
Batting stat: Stephen Drew is 13-for-28 (.464) during his season-high eight-game hitting streak for the Red Sox.
Weather: Low 70s and a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Royals are 10-4 in Royals LHP Bruce Chen's last 14 home starts.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 8
MLB Odds and Picks – Breaking our own rule to back Max Scherzer vs. Indians
By: The Linemakers
We've got only seven baseball games on Thursday's card, four of which begin before 3:45 p.m. ET.
Before we get into the day's action, here are a couple of the major storylines unfolding in the second week of August: the Rangers catching fire and catching the sluggish A's in the AL West; the Braves winning 13 straight to give them the best record in baseball (70-45); and the Pirates showing they're not folding in August as they ride a four-game winning streak into this afternoon's game against the Marlins.
But while the Braves have been stealing a lot of headlines with their impressive run, the Tigers, who go for their first four-game sweep at Cleveland since 1988, are right behind them with an 11-game win streak. The Tigers have seemed bored at times this season, and have gone through several stages of mediocrity, but their recent play with the right type of attitude validates why Las Vegas sports books made them the preseason favorite to win the World Series.
They have stepped up against the pesky Indians, who haven't allowed the Tigers to put too much distance between them in the AL Central. Coming into the series, Cleveland was only three games back; now there is a six-game gap, and we think Detroit will make it a seven tonight.
The main reason lies within the Indians themselves, a team that has been riddled with streaky highs and lows. When they're good, they go on win streaks with everyone in the lineup mashing the ball. But when they're bad, they’re among the worst in baseball, enduring stretches where their hitters don't hit and their pitchers can't get anyone out. They're in one of those funks now, mucked in three-game losing streak that has seen them drop 2.5 games behind in the AL wild-card race.
Things look even worse for the Indians on Thursday, considering they have to face Max Scherzer (16-1, 2,85 ERA), who not only looks to set a career high in wins tonight, but is also on a run of 13 2/3 scoreless innings. Since the All-Star break, he's gone 3-0 and allowed only two runs over 21 2/3 innings.
Over his last three starts at Cleveland, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA. The Tigers have won eight of their last nine at Progressive Field, averaging 6.3 runs a game over that stretch. If the Tigers can get that kind of output from their bats tonight, Scherzer should be able to get his 17th win.
We haven't seen a pitcher start 16-1 since Roger Clemens began 20-1 in 2001. Scherzer’s first strikeout tonight will give him 171 on the season and 1,000 over his career. He also leads the AL in WHIP (0.91), and if we offered odds on the Cy Young award in Las Vegas, he'd be at least a -600 favorite, a pretty lofty number considering he's still got about eight or nine starts remaining to muddy his stats.
The Indians start Zach McAllister (4-6, 3.47 ERA) tonight, and while he's pitched well over his past two starts, he's just 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA over his last five outings.
Because of the Tigers win streak, Scherzer on the mound, and the Indians being extreme at both ends of their winning or losing streaks, we feel comfortable laying -145 with Detroit tonight. Our general rule is not to recommend laying anything over -140, but in this instance, with a line that should be about -160, the price is right. This is the best value of a limited schedule today.
Tigers (Scherzer) -145 at Indians
Royals (Chen) +110 vs. Red Sox
Second-half record: 43-29 (+1,691)