MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
Atlanta at Washington: Preview / Pick
The closing matchup of a three game series is today’s baseball betting focus as the Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves this evening at Nationals Park.
According to the current betting odds at Bovada, the Nationals enter this contest as -135 home favorites, with a run total of 7.5.
Righthander Jordan Zimmermann will toe the rubber for Davey Johnson’s squad tonight, bringing a 13-6 record to the hill with a 3.06 ERA. Following a shaky July, Zimmermann got off on the right foot this month by allowing just four hits over six innings in his previous start last Friday in Milwaukee. His victory helped put an end to a three-game losing streak.
Zimmermann will be matching pitches with Atlanta’s righthander Kris Medlen, who has an 8-8 record this season with a 3.85 ERA. Medlen has struggled in each of his last three road starts, managing a 1-2 record, but racking up an ERA of 7.56 in the process. In his last outing, Medlen won, but allowed three solo home runs in six innings.
This being the final game of the series should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs recently on the Nationals. Washington is 7-3 in its last 10 home series finales that were played under the lights, and 4-1 in its last five home series finales period.
Also, since the team’s emergence as a quality team last year, the Nats are 6-3 in a home series finale when that game is in the middle of a homestand.
On the other side, the Braves have had issues the last six times the team has found itself in the last game of a road series, dropping all six contests. For the year, Atlanta has won just six of 18 finales away from home.
Medlen has been part of the problem with that final game, both home and away, since the Atlanta has dropped five of the last six finales that Medlen has started.
The most compelling numbers in the Nationals’ favor are the figures compiled by Zimmermann. The team is 11-2 at home this season when he starts at home, including 10-1 as a home favorite. It is undefeated in his last 11 home starts when it comes after the team won in his previous effort. Finally, the team is also undefeated in his last 14 home starts when that game is at night.
Evidence is the key in making any case, and the numbers above clearly illustrate that Washington is the right choice, so our free MLB Pick is
Play Washington -135
Bet on Today’s MLB Odds
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
Wednesday's MLB National League Betting Cheat Sheet
Oakland A's at Cincinnati Reds (-118, 7.5)
Pitching stat: A's pitcher Bartolo Colon allowed two or fewer runs in seven straight starts and has posted 15 straight quality starts.
Batting stat: Reds' slugger Joey Votto is batting .458 in the last eight games.
Weather: Temperatures in mid 80s with a 64 percent chance of thunderstorms.
Key betting stat: Athletics are 1-7 in their last eight games with umpire James Hoye behind home plate.
Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres (+111, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Padres LHP Eric Stults is at his best at home, where he is 5-2 with a 2.35 ERA.
Batting stat: Orioles' Adam Jones, who is from San Diego, is 8-for-15 in four career games at the Padres.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 70s with clear skies and winds blowing WNW at 10 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 15-5-1 in Orioles' last 21 vs. National League West.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-184, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Pittsburgh RHP Mark Melancon has allowed only one run and 11 hits in his last 22 appearances, totaling 22 innings.
Batting stat: The Pirates are a dominant team at home, tying for the major league lead with 39 wins while belting 45 homers to 24 for their opponents.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 34 percent chance of rain and winds blowing south at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Pirates are 27-11 in their last 38 during Game 2 of a series.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-133, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Atlanta batters are hitting .200 against Nationals RHP Jordan Zimmermann with 15 strikeouts in 85 at-bats
Batting stat: Nine of the 12 games between the Braves and Nationals this season have been decided by two runs or less.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 30 percent chance of rain and winds blowing south at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 4-0 in Zimmermann's last four home starts.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (-164, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Phillies LHP Cole Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in six starts against the Cubs, but he hasn't faced them since 2010.
Batting stat: Phillies rookie Darin Ruf has reached base safely in 33 consecutive games dating to last season - every game he has started in the majors.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 70s with a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 26-10-2 in umpire Jordan Baker's last 38 games behind home plate.
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (N/A)
Pitching stat: Rockies RHP Jhoulys Chacin is 4-2 with a 1.78 ERA on the road in eight starts.
Batting stat: Rockies 1B Todd Helton is hitting .348 against the Mets - the third-highest average against New York among players with at least 350 plate appearances (Derek Jeter, .368; Tony Gwynn, .356).
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 15-5-1 in Rockies last 21 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (-144, 7.5)
Pitching stat: St. Louis has turned a major league-leading 134 double plays.
Batting stat: Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez is a career .366 hitter (26-for-71) at Busch Stadium.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blow north at 4 mph.
Key betting stat: Dodgers are 8-0 in their last eight games following a loss.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-230, 7)
Pitching stat: Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings while allowing three runs or fewer in nine straight starts - the second-longest streak in the majors since 1996.
Batting stat: The Brewers have won 43 straight games and are 40-0 this season - the only undefeated team in the major leagues - when leading after eight innings.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 50s with overcast skies and winds blowing WSW at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (+115, 8)
Pitching stat: Rays RHP Chris Archer has averaged eight innings per start over his last four outings.
Batting stat: Arizona slugger Cody Ross is 14-for-31 with three home runs in his last eight games.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 90s with clear skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
Wednesday's MLB American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-104, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Toronto left-hander J.A. Happ is back on the mound for the first time in three months.
Batting stat: Toronto third baseman Brett Lawrie is 5-for-8 in the series and is 14-for-33 during a nine-game hitting streak.
Key betting stat: Blue Jays are 15-6 in their last 21 vs. American League West.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (+105, 8)
Pitching stat: Tigers RHP Doug Fister is 5-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 86 1/3 career innings against the Indians.
Batting stat: The Tigers lead the AL with a plus-143 run differential.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 61 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing SW at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Detroit leads the season series 11-3 and has prevailed in seven of their last eight meetings at Progressive Field.
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (-108, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia has yielded a total of 27 runs - 22 earned - and 37 hits in 19 2/3 frames over his last four outings.
Batting stat: Alex Rodriguez has gone 1-for-6 with a walk and also was hit by a pitch in the series, his first two contests of 2013 following offseason hip surgery.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 32 percent chances of thunderstorms and winds blowing NW at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Yankees are 1-5 in Sabathia's last six starts as a road underdog.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (+153, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Astros RHP Jarred Cosart’s lone issue is control, with 12 walks against 11 strikeouts in 28 total innings.
Batting stat: Boston RF Shane Victorino has recorded multiple hits in six of his last eight games.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 90s with clear skies and winds blowing south at 13 mph.
Key betting stat: Astros are 9-3 in their last 12 Wednesday games.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-145, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Twins RHP Samuel Deduno has beaten Kansas City twice this season and is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three career starts against the Royals.
Batting stat: Royals 1B Eric Hosmer is 5-for-8 in the series and batting .350 against the Twins in 60 at-bats this season.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 80s with a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing NE at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Home team is 16-5 in umpire Chris Conroy's last 21 games behind home plate.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (+102, 8)
Pitching stat: Rangers RHP Alexi Ogando is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in 21 career games - four starts - against the Angels.
Batting stat: Angels OF Josh Hamilton is hitless in eight at-bats in the series and 14-for-44 in 11 games against his former team this season.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Rangers are 26-10 in their last 36 vs. American League West.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
Wednesday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
Washington-Atlanta: The very fact that Washington is only -135 with Zimmerman makes me take notice, even with his rough stretch before beating the Brewers. He has simply owned the Braves. Medlen seems to always give it up, and far more so away from Turner Field where the fences are a little further away. He's pitched well against Washington, but to me this one screams "wait for the lineups". With BJ back and McCann and Gattis around, we don't really want Gattis in left because he's a huge liability out there. Patience here for sure.
Cubs-Phillies: Wood has a solid reputation, however, he's really only been able to dominate weaker hitting clubs, for the most part. He'll be a little cheaper after the Dodgers hammered him, but that was a time the Dodgers were hammering everyone, so I might not pay quite so much homage to that. As you'd expect, he's been better away from Wrigley. Hamels has seemingly led in every game and has been let down by the pen, which is now minus two more components. After two very high pitch count games, there's just no chance of laying -150 with the Phillies. Cubs or nothing, and lean under before it hits 7.
Pirates-Fish: I happen to like Koehler. Two problems here are that he too has had tow big pitch count games, and that, coming from the pen, is not something he's used to. I also think Charlie Morton is still Charlie Morton, and like the Fish better against RHP. If Monday's game leaves some clue as to what's going on with the Pirates, I can see taking the Fish RL, if we think they can score. However, I tend to think this total goes to 8 before it goes to 7, and at 7.5 I do lean over here.
Dodgers-Cardinals: Welp, Nolasco goes right back to being the underdog after having his one game as listed favorite against the Cubs. It's not something we've seen too often, being with the Fish, so I really wonder how much pressure is now on the kid. However, the Dodgers have won all four of his road starts since being traded. Downside is that the Cardinals have simply hammered him, so I really can't see taking the Dodgers here. Miller has not looked good in his last two starts, but at home he's been close to unhittable. The only think I don't like is that he hasn't pitched into the 7th inning since the 1st of June, which means trusting the Cardinals bullpen. Pretty steamy in St. Louis right now, so if that total comes to 7.5 I might play the over. I just don't see the pitchers' duel, but without Molina, I do need to see the lineup(s).
Brewers-Cardinals: I suppose Bumgarner is -230 for a reason, but with the Giants done for the year and that potentially anemic offense, there's not really any chance of the RL here at all. I see Narveson listed as pitching for the Brewers on one site and ESPN still lists Gorzellany. If it's the latter, I could see taking the under here, as opposed to having any money on someone coming of the DL.
Toronto-Seattle: Interestingly enough, I can see taking Happ coming off the DL at that price, simply because I like fading the Mariners against lefties and their bullpen just isn't very good. On top of that, Toronto is clearly better against RHP's this season. Since it's a day game, I will indeed wait for the lineup(s), but at -130 they're certainly begging for people to take Harang, and I can't do it.
Cleveland-Detroit: Who was the last team to light up Fister? Yes, indeed, it was the Indians. Probably some extra motivation for Fister here. Kipnis and Brantley have owned him, but the real issue here for me is how long Salazar can pitch, because there's a clear bullpen advantage right now for the Tigers. Perhaps he can pull an Oberholtzer and keep Detroit in check, but I suspect it may be a matter of time (second time through the order) than the Tigers hit him. This could well be a first-five inning bet on the Indians, and I lean to the under.
Boston-Houston: Kyle? OK, I'll do it. I can't bet on Dempster against anyone, and most of the Astros have had at least a couple of at-bats against him. Cosart's looked like the real deal so far, but there's the Astros bullpen. Again, I'm not sure Dempster should be -170 against anyone, and may well go back to the Astros RL again.
Yankees-White Sox: There is simply a slight chance I could take Sabathia at -120, but that would mean betting on the Yankees, who's bullpen has actually been pretty solid of late. And the Yankees are 20-14 against LHP's. (not counting the Tuesday game yet). Santiago is a flyball pitcher who can be a bit wild, so my initial lean is to the Yankees, but perhaps more to the over. I haven't looked at the weather yet, but 7.5 does seem a bit tempting, even with the typical cross breeze in US Cellular this time of year.
Texas-Los Angeles: Ogando has simply not been good and not pitched deep since coming back, and of course the Rangers pen has been a bit suspect. It's always hard to go against the hot team, and the one still in a pennant race, however. But, then there's Hanson, who's a flyball pitcher (benefited from Turner Field) so that makes that side a bit difficult, too. Perhaps BECAUSE of Ogando and what he HAS done, the total is only 8. With either of these bullpens capable of implosion, as well as both starters, 8 may be too low.
Oakland-Cincinnati: Not touching a day game w/the Reds. That'd be two strikes right there.
San Diego-Baltimore: I'd been high on Gonzalez until the Astros beat the shit out of him. And the Royals before that. he doesn't walk many, but can give the long ball up. If only he were left handed we'd be all over San Diego, and still might. But, Stults has had five straight 100+ pitch games, and two of those were over 120 pitches. That cannot be a good thing, and he's appeared to show that wear the last two outings. Brian Roberts back is a big deal for me. I tend to think this stays under, and of course being a day game will wait for lineups.
Tampa Bay-Arizona: Seems like Archer would have been more than -140 to me, especially against Delgado. Although, three of HIS last four games were 100+ pitch outings, and this IS the time of year that really starts to matter. But, Arizona didn't see him last week at the Trop, so maybe this stays under. Rays much better hitting team against LHP. Delgado has NOT been walking people, but the Rays have seen him enough to think they score. On second thought, I may actually like a road favorite here, but with the Rays pen (this IS an NL game, remember) perhaps this does go over the number, even if early money at CRIS forced it to 8 from 8.5. We shall see, but I do see this game pretty well.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August, 7
Wednesday's Top Action
By Kevin Rogers
Braves at Nationals
Probables: K. Medlen (8-10, 3.85 ERA) vs. J. Zimmermann (13-6, 3.06 ERA)
Series recap: Atlanta rallied past Washington in the opener, 3-2 as the Braves won their 11th straight game. The Braves made it 12 in a row on Tuesday with another low-scoring victory, while improving to 5-0 this season at Nationals Park.
Current trends: The Braves have hit the 'under' in each of the last four games, while owning a 9-3 record the last 12 away contests within the division. Washington has lost five of its previous seven games overall, while going just 4-9 the last 13 contests at Nationals Park.
Tigers at Indians
Probables: D. Fister (10-5, 3.52 ERA) vs. J. Salazar (1-0, 1.50 ERA)
Series recap: Detroit shocked Cleveland with a four-run ninth inning, capping a 4-2 comeback victory in Monday's opener. The Tigers received a terrific pitching effort from Justin Verlander in Tuesday's 5-1 triumph, as Detroit has won 10 of the past 11 meetings with Cleveland.
Current trends: Detroit is rolling at the moment with 14 wins in the last 15 games, while posting a 9-1 record the past 10 divisional contests. After winning 11 straight at home, the Indians have lost each of their last two at Progressive Field, as Cleveland looks to avoid its first three-game home skid since April.
Rockies at Mets
Probables: J. Chacin (10-5, 3.40 ERA) vs. M. Harvey (8-3, 2.21 ERA)
Series recap: New York held off Colorado, 3-2 as short home favorites on Tuesday, while the 'under' of eight easily cashed. After dropping the first three meetings with the Rockies, the Mets have won the last two matchups with Colorado.
Current trends: The Rockies have lost seven of their past eight games, while scoring two runs or less in five of the last six contests. The Mets are riding a 6-1 'under' stretch the last seven games, while going 1-4 the past five home contests off a win.
Yankees at White Sox
Probables: C.C. Sabathia (9-10, 4.78 ERA) vs. H. Santiago (3-7, 3.28 ERA)
Series recap: Despite the return of Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees' lineup, New York's struggles continued with a pair of losses in the first two games at Chicago. The Sox edged the Yankees last night, 3-2 to bring home the money as $1.20 favorites.
Current trends: Chicago has won five straight home meetings with New York since last season, while the Yankees have lost five consecutive starts made by Sabathia. The Sox have won two in a row following a 10-game skid, while seeking their first three-game winning streak since mid-June.
Dodgers at Cardinals
Probables: R. Nolasco (7-9, 3.68 ERA) vs. S. Miller (11-7, 2.89 ERA)
Series recap: Los Angeles remained on fire away from Southern California by picking up its 15th consecutive road victory on Monday. The Dodgers squeezed by the Cardinals, 3-2, while cashing as $1.45 underdogs to capture the series opener. However, the Cards rebounded against Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday with a 5-1 victory as home underdogs to snap L.A.'s hot streak.
Current trends: The Dodgers are 10-1 to the 'under' the last 11 games, including five straight 'unders' on the road. Los Angeles is 8-0 the last eight contests off a loss, while not dropping consecutive games since late June. The Cardinals own an 11-2 record the past 13 games at Busch Stadium, but have split their last 10 home contests against NL West competition.
Rays at Diamondbacks
Probables: C. Archer (6-4, 2.65 ERA) vs. R. Delgado (4-3, 3.17 ERA)
Series recap: Tampa Bay's West Coast swing started off with a dud by losing at Arizona, 6-1 as short road favorites last night. The D-Backs have taken two of three meetings with the Rays since last week, while outscoring Tampa Bay, 13-1 in the two victories.
Current trends: Tampa Bay has cashed seven straight 'unders,' while going 8-2 the last 10 road games off a loss. Arizona has hit the 'under' in seven of the past eight contests, while posting a 1-6 record the previous seven games coming off a victory.