Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Rob Veno   

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee

Based on the direction he was heading, it’s legitimate to figure Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta was simply a victim of Coors Field his last time out. In his six starts prior to that performance, Peralta was dominating opposing lineups going 3-1 with a 0.87 ERA and .181 BAA. Expect the perfect elixir for a Peralta bounce back to be this Cubs lineup which over their last seven games is mired in a slump that’s seen them average 2 runs per game, a .206 BAA and a .298 OBP. Chicago’s lineup is currently depleted of any power source other than Anthony Rizzo and in watching them, it seems they’re transitioning to the plate patience ways GM Theo Epstein’s Boston Red Sox executed so well during his tenure there. Without hitting prowess anywhere that of Boston’s, all Peralta has to do tonight is avoid a large number of walks. In six of his last nine starts he’s done just that and this appears to be a lineup he can limit the free passes against. Edwin Jackson pitching well as of late also but one huge problem for him could be the Brewers lineup. In three efforts versus them this season, Jackson is 0-3 having been lit up twice allowing 21 baserunners, and 11 earned runs in those 10.2 innings. Milwaukee’s resilience and battling attitude since the suspension of star Ryan Braun is worth noting and they appear to be the better all-around team right now. Only drawback to the Brewers is the toll yesterday’s double-header took on their bullpen but with 23 and 19 pitches respectively, setup man John Axford and closer Jim Henderson should have a good inning each left in the tank. Underdog price tag very appealing here and makes it worthwhile to roll with the Brew Crew.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Bryan Power

Yankees vs. Dodgers
Pick: Under

The oddsmakers aren't giving us much room to work with here, but nor should they. The Dodgers prevailed 3-2 yesterday, their 27th win in 33 games as the Yankees offensive struggles continued.  They should continue tonight against Clayton Kershaw.  But Hiroki Kuroda should keep this one low-scoring all around...

The Under has now cashed in four straight Dodgers games.  With Kershaw pitching, that streak should reach five.  His last start, a 2-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds saw him allow just one run over eight innings as he improved to 10-6 w/ a 1.96 ERA (best in baseball) and 0.873 WHIP on the season.  There have been only three starts all season where Kershaw has given up more than three earned runs.  The Under is 15-5 when he starts at Dodgers Stadium as a money line favorite of -175 or higher.  Facing a Yankees lineup that has scored two runs or less in 11 of its last 19 games should not be a great challenge. New York is batting just .208 against National League pitching this season while averaging just 2.4 runs per game.  The Yanks average just 3.3 runs per game vs. lefties.

Crazy as it may seem, but Hiroki Kuroda has actually been better than Kershaw lately.  He has a 0.96 ERA his last three starts, two of them seeing him not allow a single earned run.   Going back one more start, he hasn't allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts, posting 16 strikeouts against just four walks.  The Dodgers still only average 3.3 runs per game at home for the season.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Joe Gavazzi

San Diego +110

The Reds are in an offensive funk losing 5 consecutive games in which they have tallied 5 total runs. They are recently just 3-9 on the road. Bailey is well acquainted with the Reds lack of run support. In fact in his last 8 starts, Bailey is 1-6 with a 4.25 ERA receiving just 1.9 RPG in support. And that includes his no hitter. A poor performance on the road by Bailey would be no surprise. The Reds are 2-9 in road starts by Bailey where he has a 4.52 ERA. That is sharply in contrast to the home performance of Stults. San Diego has won 11/12 recent home starts by Stults including the last 8. For the season from this mound, Stults has a 2.45 ERA with 0.88 WHIP. San Diego is good enough to have a 34-21 run on their resume but bad enough to have losing streaks of 5-15 and 4-18. With 4 consecutive victories, we will ride another positive streak by San Diego on a field where they are 29-23.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Doug Upstone

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers    
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Play Against road underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +150 or more, with an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Jeff Alexander

Atlanta Braves -172

The Braves have been one tough cookie at home where they've won 46 of their last 63. Look for their home-field success to continue with Minor on the mound. The Braves are 11-4 in Minor's last 15 starts overall and 7-0 in his last seven starts versus NL West foes. The Rockies have dropped 15 of their last 21 on the road. They're also just 5-16 in their last 21 against the Braves and 7-28 in the last 35 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Braves.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -140

The Los Angeles Angels have essentially packed it in. They have lost five straight to drop to 48-57 on the season and now have little to play for the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Texas (58-49) has plenty to play for as it trails Oakland by five games for 1st place in the AL West.

I'll gladly fade Los Angeles starter Jerome Williams tonight. He has been atrocious this season, going 4-7 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in 14 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts.

Martin Perez has done a solid job for the Rangers this season, going 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA over three home starts while allowing only four earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.

The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Los Angeles is 2-10 in Williams' last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 41-20 in their last 61 during game 3 of a series. Bet Texas Wednesday.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +120 over DETROIT

It’s different to see Justin Verlander as a risky favorite but the numbers don’t lie. Verlander’s recent string of performances has raised questions about what is wrong with the long-time ace. Over his last seven starts, he has just 31 K in 50.2 IP, while walking 23. Two of those seven starts came against the White Sox in which Verlander surrendered 23 hits in 13 innings against the AL’s lowest scoring team. Overall, Verlander has an unacceptable 1.41 WHIP, a decreasing groundball rate that has gone from 41% in April and May to 36% in June and July. At 220+ IP for four straight years and 137 already this year, the signs suggest Verlander might be in trouble with a “dead arm”. Verlander’s ERA over his last five starts is 4.68 and his xERA is 5.08. He may look appealing spotting a cheap price at home by his standards but the warning signs are loud and clear.

To say that Gio Gonzalez has come on strong after a slow start is an understatement. Since June 1, nine of his 10 starts have been pure quality. His skills for each month have gotten progressively better. Gonzalez’s 16% line-drive rate is the lowest among NL starters that have pitched 50 innings or more. Gonzalez also has an elite 53% groundball rate, 136 K’s in 130 innings and a solid 1.19 WHIP. He rarely loses on his own, as his three losses in 21 starts this season attest to. Gonzalez is among the elite. His 16% line-drive rate and all his other skills is a testament to how difficult it is for opponents to square up his stuff. Expect nothing less here.


Toronto +139 over OAKLAND

Over his last three road starts, R.A. Dickey has faced Cleveland, Texas and Tampa Bay. He allowed 14 hits and three earned runs over 20.2 innings in those starts and that’s against three very good hitting clubs. Once again, this isn’t the Rogers Center, where Dickey can’t keep the ball in the yard. This is perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the AL and Dickey has a great chance to thrive here.

The Blue Jays can hit. They have several players in their line-up that are swinging a hot bat at the moment and they scored four times in the opener of this series and five times last night. Over the past 30 games, Toronto is a top-3 team in several offensive categories that include runs scored, team batting average, HR’s and SLG % to name a few. Now the Blue Jays get their shot at Bartolo Colon. We keep suggesting Colon’s dream season can’t last but so far it has with below average skills that are getting worse. Colon has 16 K’s over his past 35 frames. In his last start against the Angels, his WHIP was 1.50 but he somehow managed to escape jam after jam and ended up allowing two runs over six innings with two walks and two strikeouts. Colon’s 87% strand rate over his last 10 starts is the highest in the majors and it’s not close. The closest one to him is 79%. He relies primarily on his fastball, which doesn’t get above 90 mph these days. The Blue Jays have feasted on fastballs all season long and once again we’ll fade the luckiest pitcher in baseball.   


Seattle +138 over BOSTON

One has to figure that the trade the Red Sox made yesterday was in direct reaction to what the Tampa Bay Rays have done over the past two months. Tampa is the team that the Red Sox must go through in order to make the playoffs and/or advance deep should they get there. The Rays just took four of five games from Boston. Tampa throws out young, dominant arms with stuff every night. The Rays are a freight train right now and the Red Sox figured they had to do something with Clay Buchholz’s status becoming more uncertain every day. The Red Sox took a huge risk in trading for Jake Peavy, a guy that is past his prime and has spent 145 days on the DL over the past three years. There’s a big difference pitching for San Diego and the South Side than from pitching in a pressure filled pennant race in Boston. The Red Sox traded away Jose Iglesias, an outstanding glove that is also hitting .330 this year and that is going to be a fixture wherever he plays for the next 10 years or more. We mention this because the Red Sox players (and their fans) might be in a bit of shock today over a trade that has long term consequences that cannot turn out well for Boston. That move doesn’t exactly instill Boston’s faith in John Lackey either. Lackey was on a huge roll recently but over his past two games he has surrendered 19 hits and nine runs over 12.2 innings and one of those starts came against the light-hitting Yankees. Lackey’s ERA went from 2.78 to 3.19 after his last two starts and perhaps the Red Sox see something that is worrisome. Boston has lost three of Lackey’s last four starts.

When you’re a starting pitcher in Seattle, you’re going to find yourself in the shadow of King Felix Hernandez but with a 10-4 record Hisashi Iwakuma is casting some shadows of his own. Iwakuma’s skills keep getting better. Over his last five starts over 29 innings, Iwakuma has a 56% groundball rate, a 13% line-drive rate and 28 K’s with just five walks issued. Iwakuma’s dominance can be seen in his 72%/5% dominant start/disaster start split over 22 starts. Overall, Iwakuma has a 0.95 WHIP, a 2.87 ERA and 129 K’s in 144 frames. While he’ll never challenge the King for the top slot in the Seattle rotation, he’s been as good as or better than Hernandez but he’s not priced in the same range and that offers up some great value.


Kansas City -107 over MINNESOTA

Here come the Royals. K.C. has won seven straight and they are now just five games back in the Wild Card race with a long way to go. Over the Royals seven-game winning streak they defeated Chris Sale, swept the Orioles and took the opener of this series last night, 7-2. They now get their easiest assignment of them all when facing Kevin Correia. How desperate are the Twins for starting pitching? They inked this stiff to a two-year deal worth 10M. Correia has walked 13 batters and struck out 15 over his past 24 innings. Over his last five starts he has a 1.88 WHIP, an xERA of 5.85 and a 26% line-drive rate. This year, Correia has a BAA of .296. He didn’t make it out of the second inning in his last start, which should come as no surprise, as 50% of his starts this year have been disasters. He now faces one of the hottest teams in the league.

Jeremy Guthrie is the picture of consistent mediocrity but a trade back to the AL served him well. With KC: 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Guthrie is 10-7 this season with a 4.27 ERA and while he won't turn into a new pitcher at age 34, he remains a far better option at a short price than Kevin Correia does at any price. With a 93-mph fastball and four other pitches he uses at any time he's in position here to extend the Royals winning streak to eight. Value doesn’t always come in playing the dog. That applies here.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Greg Shaker

Seattle +140

Well I certainly do know that the Red Sox are the better team and even if I did not know that, all I would have to do would be to look at the betting line for tonight's game. Seattle has the better starter for tonight's contest yet he is a HUGE Dog. What up with that? I thought that Oddsmakers set lines based on the starting pitchers? Apparently not is this case. Lackey has been pretty solid this year, not so much lately and the word that I get is that John may have Konked out and maybe that is the reason the Sox gave up a lot to get Peavy. I think that was a terrible trade by Boston so don't get me started. I can't pronounce the Starter's name for the Mariners and that usually is good for us. He clearly is not being respected but this guy has been a BEAST. He carries a WHIP of 0.95, his team has won 14 out of 22 times he has started, and his K/BB Ratio is about as good as it gets. SUSHI! He did get smoked by Boston earlier this year and while some might say "Uh Oh" I say that this is extra motivation for tonight. Seattle Bats are much better following the break, especially verses RHP's and they are winning baseball games at a high rate lately. Bad spot for them yesterday following travel, much better spot tonight as they adjust to the Clam Chowder. This one Reeks of Value and I am going to play it.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Rocketman Sports

FREE MLB play

Tampa Bay -154

RECORD:
16-4 (80%) - last 20 freebies!


-----------------------------


Bankroll Sports

White Sox @ Indians - Over 7.5

Push last night

RECORD:
25-7-2 (74%) - July free picks!

Invest In Sports - Do not gamble !
Site below is about high yield investing info.
Site below is excellent, and I purchased from it. HOT !!!
Click Here: http://www.emanagedforexaccounts.com/ Scroll Down

Undefeated77
Sports_Investor
useravatar
Offline
687 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 31

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Yankees/ Dodgers Under 6: The Yankee offense continues to struggle, having scored just 3.4 rpg in their last 10 games and I don't feel they will get early that much off of the leagues ERA leader, Clayton Kershaw. Clayton comes in with a 1.96 ERA overall and 1.74 ERA at home. The Dodgers are just 6-6 in his home starts, cause they have averaged just 2.33 rpg for him at home. I guess the offense knows they don't have to score much, cause he won't give up much. Even if they tried to score to night they won't get much anyway vs Hiroki Kurodo, who has allowed just 2 ER's combined in his last 4 starts, posting an 0.69 ERA over that stretch. On the road this year hae has a 3.18 ERA and the Under is 9-1-1 in his 11 starts away from home. You can also expect a fully focused effort from Hiroki tonight as he will be facing his old team. He will also be facing a Ddgers team that is slowing down some offensively, having scored just 2.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Clayton's home starts have averaged just 5 rpg this year and I'm nt even sure these teams will get that much. A Pitcher's duel in LA tonight. 

Pittsburgh/ St Louis Under 7: The Cardinal offense has really struggled of late and now they will be without their best hitter in Yadier Molina. Now they face Jeff Locke, who has been very solid for Pittsburgh this year. Jeff has a nice 2.56 ERA at home and a 2.28 ERA at night. Overall his ERA is just 2.15, but the Pirates are only 11-9 in those games and that's because they give him just 3.25 rpg worth of support.Overall this year, Jeff's games have averaged just 5.85 rpg, while his home starts have put up just 5.44 rpg and his night starts have averaged 5.62 rpg. Low scoring games all around when this guys is on the mound.  Adam Wainright has struggled some with the Pirates, but this will be the first time he has faced them this year and he is pitching very good at the moment, with a 2.79 ERA in his last 7 starts, and he has a solid 3.00 ERA on the road this year. With their offense struggling so much and now missing Molina, you can expect a very good effort from Adam tonight, even vs a Pirate offense that has been hitting pretty good of late. This game has the feel of a classic pitcher's duel tonight on ESPN.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
199355 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
43412
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
267654
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.6
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3357
Newest User:
Robert Rae
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
4639

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com