Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Matt Fargo

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta will be going for the clean sweep tonight against St. Louis and it is getting a solid price here based on recent results from the starting pitchers. The Braves improved to 33-15 at home with their 2-0 victory on Saturday and that home record is the best in baseball yet they come into this game as the underdog. The pitching of Kris Medlen of late has something to do with that. He closed the first half of the season by allowing 10 runs in 9.1 innings over his last two starts and then opened the second half with another poor outing as he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings at the Mets. For the most part though he has been solid at home with a 3.26 ERA in 10 starts, six of which have been quality outings and going back, the Braves are 18-6 in their last 24 home starts. St. Louis has seen its lead shrink to 1.5 games over the Pirates in the National League Central so while this is a big game, a four-game series at Pittsburgh starting Monday may be holding more focus right now. The Cardinals are still a very solid eight games over .500 on the road but are 1-7 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. The sensational season from Shelby Miller is also playing a role in this price. He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 19 starts but his home/road splits tell a different story. In 10 home starts, he has a 1.74 ERA and 0.92 WHIP but in nine road starts, he has a 4.07 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and that is a significant differential. The Braves have won six straight games as home underdogs and they keep that streak alive here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Jeff Alexander

Cincinnati Reds -111

The Reds have the edge on the pitcher's mound with Tony Cingrani, who's 4-1 (8-3 on the moneyline) with a 2.98 ERA in 11 starts. The Reds have won five of his seven road starts, including each of his last two. LA's Chris Capuano is just 3-6 (5-7 on the moneyline) with a 5.25 ERA in 12 starts. The Dodgers have dropped five of his last seven starts at home where he has a 6.92 ERA this season. The Reds are a terrific 39-18 in their last 57 games as a road favorite. We'll bet Cincy.

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Dave Price

Texas Rangers -105

The Rangers have dropped the first two games of this series but are still showing value in this bounce back spot considering they are 17-6 in their last 23 games after losing the first two games of a series and 41-19 in their last 60 Game 3s of a series. The Rangers are also 14-6 in their last 20 games in Cleveland. Texas has been a quality investment with Ogando on the hill. The Rangers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts, 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 9-2 in his last 11 starts versus the American League Central, 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Ogando is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in a pair of starts versus Cleveland. Jimenez has been been solid for Cleveland, but he hasn't been nearly as good at home where he has a 6.09 ERA. He's also lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus Texas. Take Texas.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Will Rogers

Philadelphia vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

I was actually able to cash the Phillies on the Run Line Friday despite the fact that all they scored was a single unearned run. Needless to say, things were much worse yesterday (I laid off) as they got destroyed 10-0 by the Tigers, sending them to a season-high seventh straight defeat. Today should be just as ugly.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Rick Porcello - The Tigers starter comes in having not allowed a single run in two of his past three starts.  His ERA during that time is 1.35 and more importantly the team has won all three starts.  He should have no problem here with a badly slumping Phillies offense. Porcello allowed only four hits in seven innings the last time we saw him, a 6-2 road win over the Chicago White Sox. He's also done quite well for himself at home in Interleague Play, going 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA his last four starts vs. the National League here at Comerica Park.

2.  Slumping Phillies - You could make the case that no team in baseball has been in a worse slump of late as over the last seven games, the Phillies are batting just .191 and have scored only 10 runs.  Yesterday marked the fifth time in the last six games that they were held to one run or less.   They had only two hits yesterday.  It certainly doesn't help that both Ryan Howard and Dominic Brown are currently injured and unavailable.

3.  X-Factor - Yes, the juice is high, but did you know the Tigers are 35-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -250?

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Steve Merril

Minnesota Twins +1½ -150

Two youngsters are on the mound in Seattle as the Mariners host the Twins. Erasmo Ramirez has given up 10 runs and 14 hits in his two starts this season for Seattle. His problem is that he has walked six batters in just over 10 innings of work. Ramirez is facing a Minnesota team that has taken two of three games so far in this series. Minnesota is averaging 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and they should have Joe Mauer back in the lineup after he took Saturday off.

Kyle Gibson is 2-2 in five starts for Minnesota. He has pitched better as of late giving up just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Angels and Yankees. The Mariners have scored just 17 runs in their last six games. Seattle is 14-23 in day games while hitting .230 in those contests. Minnesota’s bullpen has a 2.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. We see good value in taking Minnesota plus the runs in this game on Sunday afternoon.

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Jesse Schule

LA Angels vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

The Angels sit 12 games back of the division leading A's after losing back to back games in Oakland. They wrap up their series Sunday, in a matinee game at Overstock Coliseum.

Tommy Hanson will get the start for the Halos, and he's been a major bust this season. Hanson (4-2, 4.75 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings, not factoring in the decision in a 10-3 loss to the Twins his last time out. Prior to that he was torched for seven runs on six hits in just two innings in a no decision versus Seattle. Hanson allowed a pair of runs on four hits over six innings in an Angels loss in his only previous start versus Oakland this season.

The A's hand the ball to Jarrod Parker, who is undefeated in his last 10 starts. Parker (6-6, 3.79 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over seven innnings, but was the victim of a blown save in an A's loss to Houston his last time out. He's 4-0 in his last 10 appearances, holding opponents to three runs or less in each of those games.

He's 1-0 with a 4.82 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year. Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo are a combined 5-for-40 with 15 strikeouts versus Parker in their respective careers.

The Angels have lost five of their last six on the road, and they appear to have another tough matchup here in Oakland today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Dave Essler

Cardinals / Braves Over 7.5

Who would take an over on Sunday night! Well, we are, or I am. Miller has been around long enough for teams to have a better book on him, and although he's never faced the Braves, we've got two things working here. First, he's on a bigger stage, and second, away from home his ERA is 4.07 as opposed to 1.74 at home. With that in mind and the Braves at HOME, I simply don't see Atlanta not doing their part, and the Cardinals bullpen just isn't one I respect. Medlen is Medlen and should give up runs to the Cardinals, it's that simple.  And of course, it's Paul Emmel behind the plate, who is simply an over machine when it comes to totals. He's 15-7 over this season and without even looking at the exact numbers, he was that or better last season. I am tempted to add the Braves later, too. At 8, if it goes there everywhere, it's still a push and not a loss, so yes, I would bet it anyway.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

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CLEVELAND +100 over TexasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers are wrongly being billed as the chalk here. Texas has lost the first two games of this series, they’ve dropped three in a row and they’ve lost eight of their past 10 games. Texas has been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its past 10 and they’ve been shut out completely in two of its last three games. Alexi Ogando has started just 11 games this season and comes in with a 4-2 record to go along with a 3.27 ERA. Those misleading numbers have him overpriced. Ogando’s strikeout rate is on a serious decline. He struck out 10 Astros in his season debut way back on April 3 but has struck out three batters or less in in all but four starts since. He also has a pedestrian 38%/43% groundball/fly-ball rate. Since May 1, covering just five starts, Ogando has walked seven and struck out 10. Ogando’s surface stats are complete fool’s gold, as he’s been the beneficiary of some extreme good fortune. When looking under the hood, we see a pitcher that is on the verge of getting pounded.
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The Indians bats are heating up again. They scored 10 times in Seattle on Thursday and followed that up with an 11-8 victory on Friday in the series opener. They only scored one time yesterday but they still won and it was against Yu Darvish. Ubaldo Jimenez has shown flashes from his Colorado ace days at times this season. He has a 62%/29% dominant start/disaster start split and his skills vs. LH bats have been some of the best in the game. Jimenez has only lost five times in 20 starts and the Tribe are 13-7 in those games. Jimenez has 100 K’s in 104 innings and if his control improves, which is the only sore spot in his profile, he is a serious threat to throw a gem. Because of surface stats, most bettors believe the Rangers have an edge on the hill today and the price reflects that. Our research suggests otherwise and that’s why you do not buy surface stats. We’ve all seen a lot of cars that look pretty on the outside but once you look under the hood, it’s a different story. That applies to Ogando here. Get in line.
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Philadelphia +208 over DETROITFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rick Porcello is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts and that makes him a premium “sell-high” target. We’ve seen this act before with Porcello. Every time he appears ready to take the next step in becoming a reliable starter, he hits a wall. Case in point was this year in back-to-back starts in mid-June against Minnesota and Cleveland in which he allowed one run combined in those two starts. What followed were back-to-back losses to the Orioles and Angels in which the Tigers lost 13-3 and 14-8 with Porcello surrendering 19 hits and 13 runs in 10 frames. At age 24, Porcello is just two innings short of 800 career innings over the last 4+ seasons. In his career, he has allowed 910 hits in 798 frames for a career BAA of .287. He’s always been inconsistent and hittable and he keeps reminding us that he’s not to be trusted as a heavy favorite against anyone because of his high percentage of disaster starts.
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It’s not customary for us to play on cold teams but the Phillies, who have dropped seven straight, certainly have a chance here. Remember, Philly was one of the hottest teams going into the break and Jonathan Pettibone is precisely the right guy to get them back on track. Pettibone rarely has a bad start. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight and three runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts. You would be hard-pressed to find another pitcher that has been as consistent as Pettibone and it’s even more impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Pettibone has been taken yard just one time over his last six starts and just nine times the entire season. Pettibone has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 64%/15%/21% over his last five starts and has the poise out there of a season vet. No doubt the Tigers are a tough team to beat but there is far too much value on backing Pettibone and fading Porcello to pass this one up.
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MIAMI +105 over PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gerrit Cole’s first eight starts confirm what we saw from him in the minors this year before his call-up. He's succeeded so far on pinpoint control and a steady stream of groundballs. Cole's low strikeout rate (29 K’s in 49 IP) continues a trend seen at Triple-A this spring and continues to generate some skepticism from us. His xERA and skills aren't bad but don't yet suggest the top of the rotation starter he was projected to be as a first-round draft choice. True, Cole won his first four big league starts and that attracted some praise but he's hardly dominated opponents with a BAA of .260.  It's important to remember that Cole got the call to the majors because of injuries and his command at Triple-A was below the benchmark we like to see for major-league starters. He also has a 25% line-drive rate and that’s a risky percentage to be playing around with. Cole’s skill set and inexperience say that he’s very likely to have several implosions in the second half and there’s some profit potential in fading him when he’s favored.
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The Marlins have been playing very competitive ball since May 31. In fact, Miami is 15-8 at home since then and they’re in a great spot to improve that record. Not only do the Fish have Jose Fernandez going but Pittsburgh has a huge, four-game series against the Cardinals starting tomorrow in Pittsburgh and the Bucs' focus figures to be on that series. The Pirates have not been home since the All-Star break and conclude their 10-game trip here. This is a day game after a night game and with that huge-sellout series on deck, don’t be surprised to see the Pirates rest a couple of key starters. Even if they do not, there is no question that Pittsburgh is looking forward to getting back home for its showdown with the Cardinals. Oh yeah, Jose Fernandez has an elite 2.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after his first 19 starts. Those numbers are supported by his elite skills that include 111 K’s in 112 innings and a 46% groundball rate that has increased to 52% over his last five starts. Wrong side favored.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Bob Balfe

Cleveland Indians -105

The Indians have been playing decent baseball while the Rangers have been cold with their bats. Jimenez has major potential and has fallen under the radar the last few years. Look for Cleveland to get a big home win today. Take the Indians

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Billy Coleman

Houston / Toronto Under 9½

Jarred Cosart is pretty much an unknown at this time, but if its not broke don't fix it. In his first 2 Big League starts Cosart has an ERA of 0.60 including taking a "no hitter " into the 7th inning against Tampa. Todd Redmond has been very average for Toronto, but he is not facing the most powerhouse line up in the Astros today. Two high scoring affairs in the first two contests between these two this weekend, we will look for the tide to swing the other way today.

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Wunderdog

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -104

Bruce Chen has been great this season for the Royals, but let's not forget he's 36 years old and isn't likely to keep up this pace much longer. The problem for the Royals is their lack of run support. Over their past seven games, this team has produced just 3.3 runs per game. And they have struggled vs. left-handed pitchers all season long (3.3 runs per game in 29 games vs. southpaws). Since last season, the White Sox are 42-29 vs. AL teams that score under 4.3 runs per game. And the Royals simply don't get the job done as road chalk. They are 57-73 in this rare role as a road favorite of -100 to -150. I like Chicago in this one.

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Indian Cowboy

St. Louis / Atlanta Over 7.5

The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, who both made the playoffs last year and both lead their divisions this year, cap off a three-game weekend series at Turner Field with a national TV bout Sunday night. Through Monday's action, St. Louis led the NL Central by a game and a half over Pittsburgh, while Atlanta led the NL East by seven games over Philly. St. Louis' menacing offense still packs plenty of punch, even without Matt Holliday, who just went on the disabled list. The Cardinals began the week boasting three batters in the Top 10 in the National League. Yadier Molina led the NL with a .336 average; teammate Allen Craig ranked second at .333, while batting a Major League-best .417 since June 20th; and Matt Carpenter ranked sixth at .323. That's not to mention Carlos Beltran, who just dropped out of the Top 10 but still ranked 13th at .306. On the whole the Cardinals ranked third in the Majors in scoring at just under five runs per game. The Braves, meanwhile, owned 29 come-from-behind victories this season at the start of the week, which led the National League. Atlanta has been adept at picking up key hits at key times, such as during a ninth-inning rally in a 2-1 victory over the Mets Monday night. The Braves have been a classic "under" play for a long time because of their stellar pitching, but this year Atlanta is making some noise with its bats. Freddie Freeman, fresh off a nice sophomore campaign, is hitting .311, and Jason Heyward just returned from a stint on the DL. Both those guys could be poised for big second halves. Brian McCann is hitting .290 with 13 homers, rookie Even Gattis has 14 dingers and Dan Uggla (19 homers), while erratic, is always a threat at the plate. Overall the Braves rank 12th at 4.3 RPG. And with Medlen and Miller expected to start Sunday, that should help keep the total from being too high. Add it all up, and we expect a Turner Field shoot-out on "Sunday Night Baseball".

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

John Ryan

St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-18 mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS) revenging a shutout loss to opponent and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. Atlanta is a solid 17-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games facing a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season; 17-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Moreover, Medlen is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line facing low power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record). The Braves have made a solid statement winning the first two games of this three-game series against the Cardinals, who own the best record in MLB. The Braves have limited the Cardinals offense to just 1 run in these two games. Chris Medlen will start for the Braves and he has struggled over his last three starts. However, the Braves bullpen is at full strength, especially for middle inning relief. I believe the Braves will complete the sweep the Cardinals today.

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Joe Gavazzi

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics    
Play: Oakland Athletics     

After losing 3-1 to Oakland on Saturday, the Angels are now on recent slides of 23-25 and 4-8 to fall 12 games behind Oakland for the Division lead. Hanson has dealt with bereavement time and forearm injury this season in posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He is part of the issue that LAA has had with the bottom end of their rotation. Far prefer Oakland on a field where they are 33-15, 22-6 recently, and 19-6 following a win. Oakland enters on a positive surge of 41-21 winning the first 2 games of this series. At first glance it appears troublesome that the As have lost the last 5 starts by Parker. Yet a broader view reveals that Parker is personally 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his last 10 starts including an American League best .175 OBA.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Greg Shaker

Boston -108

The All Star Break is a great help to some pitchers and especially those that throw the ball hard and is recognized as a K Pitcher. That's Lester and it certainly did help him get back ontrack with an 8 K 0 BB performance verses the Rays his last time out. The best part about that effort is that it took just 96 heaves to get the job done and that means that he is likely to have another Live Arm for this contest today in Baltimore. He will be throwing at the Orioles weakest link with the O's possessing just a .236 BA verses Southpaws here at this park and most recently even worse than that in their last 10 games regardless of the venue. Boston's Pen is getting the job done right now so we can expect some good results by Boston pitchers throughout. The O's have lost 4 of their last 5 and the guy taking to the Hill is marginal at best. Teams have a .351 OBP verses this guy this year and he continues to give up a lot of Dingers. That's not so good here at The Yard and the fact is, Boston thrives on right handed pitching, plating 5.6 Per 9 this year verses those guys. Hammel is 1-2 with a 4.81 ERA in 11 games (five starts) against Boston. And let's not forget this. Baltimore is 1-8 the last 9 times Jason Hammel has started a game. Yes, that's true. I saw it.

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Jack Jones

Colorado Rockies -176

The Milwaukee Brewers (43-60) are in a world of hurt for the rest of the season. They are without arguably their best three players right now in Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are playing banged up.

With the edge the Colorado Rockies have on the mound today, I'll gladly lay this juice and back them Sunday. Donovan Hand is 0-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 16 appearances this season, including 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two road starts for Milwaukee.

Jhoulys Chacin remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Chacin is 9-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin has allowed 4 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 0-12 (-13.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. Milwaukee is 19-45 in its last 64 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Colorado, and 2-7 in their last 9 meetings with the Rockies overall. Bet the Rockies Sunday.

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Andrew Lange   

St. Louis -120 1st Half

Here we go again with another opportunity to fade Atlanta's Kris Medlen. Two weeks ago we took the plus price with Cincinnati and Bronson Arroyo as Medlen lasted only four innings and allowed nine hits and four runs. Since then he posted another sub-par start against the Mets: 5.1 IP, 7 hits, 4 ERs. I think Medlen's fall from grace is nothing more than the league seeing him a few times. He's a soft-tossing right hander whose change-up is 83 mph and fastball 89-90 mph. The St. Louis Cardinals have a gem in Shelby Miller who through 19 starts has done nothing but impress. Note that Miller is throwing harder than he was earlier this season. His fastball averaged 95-96 over his last three starts. The only downside to Miller is that it looks like the Cardinals are trying to preserve him for the postseason. Miller has topped 100 pitches only once over his last eight starts so expect a 6-inning ceiling on him tonight. Two good teams but it's hard to ignore the starting pitching mismatch. I played some Cardinals on the 5-inning line as well as their team total over.

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