MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees at Red Sox
By Steve Merril

Baseball's best rivalry takes center stage on Sunday Night when the Red Sox host the Yankees.


Boston decided to make a pitching change for this game as Jon Lester was the original starter. He will now pitch on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays. Ryan Dempster is now the scheduled starter and he enters with a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in his 19 games this season. Dempster's biggest problem has been giving up the long ball as he allows 1.63 home runs per nine innings which is the worst percentage among Boston's five regular starting pitchers this season.


C.C. Sabathia is 9-8 with a 4.07 ERA for the Yankees. He needs to improve off his last start when he allowed eight runs and eight hits in four innings pitched at home against the Minnesota Twins. He has allowed four runs or more in three of his last five road starts. Sabathia is seeing the Red Sox for the third time and he owns a win and a loss against them. In the win, the lefty struck out 10 while walking none in just over seven innings. He had different results in the loss back on April 1 when he gave up four runs and eight hits in just five innings. Sabathia’s last start in Boston came on August 30, 2011 when he struck out ten batters in six innings of work.


The Yankees’ injury report got a little longer after Zoilo Almonte left Friday’s game with a sprained ankle. He joins Derek Jeter, Jayson Nix, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira and Francisco Cervelli who are New York hitters that are unavailable. A-Rod hopes to return Monday, while Youkilis, Granderson and Jeter are still a little bit away from helping the team.

Boston had some injury news on Friday as well with Shane Victorino straining a hamstring. The team also put Andrew Bailey on the DL with a shoulder injury that most likely will end his season. The bullpen is already without Andrew Miller and Joel Hanrahan who are each out for the season. Clay Buchholz has been out for awhile with a neck strain and inflammation.


Yankees are 11-4 in Sabathia’s last 15 Sunday starts
Sabathia 21-6-1 Over in his last 28 Sunday starts

Red Sox are 4-1 in Dempster's last five home starts
Dempster 5-1 Under in his last six starts vs. AL East


David Ortiz 11-for-52 vs. Sabathia
Dustin Pedroia 13-for-43 vs. Sabathia

Robinson Cano 1-for-6 vs. Dempster
Vernon Wells 3-for-9 vs. Dempster

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati aims for the sweep when they close this three game set vs Pirates at Great American Ballpark. Homer Bailey will go to the hill for the Reds, sporting a 5-8 mark on the season with a 3.82 ERA. The betting GODS haven't been on Bailey's side since his NO-NO against Giants as the hurler has posted a 0-2 mark with a 6.17 ERA giving up 8 runs over 11 2/3 innings of work. The Pirates will counter with left-hander Jeff Locke, who has an 8-2 record on the year, 2.15 ERA. The southpaw was tagged with his second lost of the season last time out despite tossing 7 innings of 3 hit, 2 run ball against the A's. The baseball betting market well aware that Cinci has had overall success against Pirates w/Bailey notching a 10-3 mark in his thirteen career starts has them $1.40 to $1.55 favorite to sweep the series. While the odds might be a little stiff, those who have done their homework know it won't be easy sailing for Bucs. The Pirates have had their ship sunk 4 straight times away from PNC Park, 10 times the past 14 away with Locke. Stick with Reds as they're on a 10-2 streak as a home favorite between -$1.40 and $1.60, 3-1 stretch at home going for a three game sweep, 9-3 last 12 hosting Pittsburgh.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

San Diego at St Louis: Preview & Pick

Today’s adventure in baseball betting for the San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals game could likely be titled “When Unders Collide,” given the wealth of data that pertains to the game’s two starting pitchers.

According to the current betting odds at Bovada, the run total is set at 8, while the Cardinals are prohibitive -200 home favorites for this series-ending matchup.

Adam Wainwright will start for St. Louis, bringing a 12-5 record and 2.45 ERA to the Busch Stadium mound. In both home and day games this year, Wainwright has made a habit of keeping the score down, with a 1.78 ERA in the former and 2.09 ERA in the latter.

For San Diego, southpaw Eric Stults will toe the rubber, holding an 8-7 mark and 3.40 ERA. In his last 15 innings, Stults has allowed just two earned runs.

During his major league career, Wainwright’s excellence has made St. Louis a heavy favorite 21 times, with the Cardinals notching six wins in seven tries when that home contest has been played during the day.

Today’s run total has also recently been a positive sign for Under bettors, with the last five, and six of the last seven, cashing when the home day game has had a total of 8 or more.

Even when it’s simply the Cardinals playing in a home day game to close out a series, the Under has been the right call in the last four games, and five of the last six.

Stults has also put a smile on the face of those looking for low scoring, with a 13-5 mark in favor of the Under in his road starts. Also, when the total in those games has been set at 8 or above, the Under has made money magic eight of nine times.

However, the most compelling evidence that points in favor of a low-scoring affair is one that takes into account nearly nine years worth of St. Louis games. Since 2005, when the Cardinals have been favorites of -200 or more when facing a lefthander, the Under is 26-11-3. Should the line move above -200, the numbers become even more eye-opening, with a 25-5-2 record in favor of the Under.

With such an intimidating betting odds number in favor of the Cards, there’s little incentive to invest so much into a small payoff on a side selection. Therefore, the free MLB pick is

Play St-Louis-San Diego Under 8

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MLB Odds and Picks -- Can CC Sabathia get himself and Yankees back on track?
By: The Linemakers

Today's baseball card is loaded with a couple of amazing starting pitcher matchups. Six of the top-10 ERA leaders in baseball are in action. Cliff Lee and Matt Harvey (-115) square off at Citi Field, and Clayton Kershaw (-112) and Jordan Zimmermann -- with their insane compilation of dominating statistics -- duel in Washington with the Nationals trying to avoid a sweep.

A few of this season's perceived epic pitching matchups, the ones where we thought zeroes would be posted across the scoreboard, turned out to be just the opposite. One pitcher didn't live up to the hype and then the roof came crashing down. However, the Kershaw and Zimmermann matchup has the look of a 3-1 game, especially with the Nationals struggling to manufacture runs.

Sabathia well-rested for rubber match?

Tonight at Boston, CC Sabathia will try to avoid losing three straight starts, which would be the longest such streak he's had since joining the Yankees. Over his career, Sabathia performed much better as the season wears on, as if he gets stronger along the way. But this hasn't been a normal season for Sabathia and the Yankees. They are seven games above .500 (52-45), but even with last night's 5-2 win at Boston, remain in fourth-place, seven games behind the division-leading Red Sox (59-40).

Sabathia's previous outing last Sunday against the Twins doesn't give any confidence to bettors looking to wager with the belief Sabathia will turn things around as he has shown in the past. He gave up eight runs -- three earned -- over four innings of work in the 10-4 loss to the Twins.

Then, after the loss, to get away from things, Sabathia jumped on an airplane and headed south to St. Bart's in the Caribbean over the All-Star break. You could look at his little mini-vacation in a couple of ways. The first thought process is he tanked in his last game because he couldn't wait to leave, but the second thought is maybe the time away will help Sabathia get back on his game. The fact that he acknowledges he was having trouble is encouraging.

The Red Sox aren't exactly the measuring stick Sabathia would have preferred in his first game back with a refreshed attitude -- his 5.44 career ERA at Fenway is his worst at any park since he's been in the Bronx. This season, he's 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against them -- both at Yankee Stadium.

Sabathia was originally supposed to face the struggling Jon Lester, but Boston manager John Farrell pushed Lester back a couple days to give him some extra rest. Ryan Dempster (5-8, 4.24 ERA) takes the mound tonight, and a few Yankee hitters might feel pretty good about the change. Dempster has gone 0-5 with a 7.29 ERA in six starts against the Yankees, including 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in three starts over the last three seasons.

Dempster was shaky in his last start, giving up seven runs (four earned) in only 3.1 innings against the Mariners, but Boston came back to win, 8-7. Before that start, Dempster pitched well in a Boston loss against the Angels in Anaheim but had defeated his previous two opponents at Fenway Park.

Boston has won five of the eight games in the series this season and the past three meetings have stayed UNDER the total. We think a low-scoring game will be hard to come by tonight and also give a slight lean to the Yankees.

Sunday Selections:

Yankees/Red Sox OVER 9 (-105)

Yankees (Sabathia) +125 at Red Sox

Pirates (Locke) +135 at Reds

Dodgers (Kershaw) -105 at Nationals

Dodgers/Nationals UNDER 7 (-115)

Second-half record: 6-4 (+279)

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

Sunday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-107, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Matt Harvey, who leads the NL with 147 strikeouts, has toyed with the Phillies in two meetings this season - holding them to a .116 batting average and 0.69 ERA.

Hot batting stat: Mets C John Buck, who sat out Saturday after cramping up in the series opener, is batting 11-for-30 with nine RBIs during his career high-tying seven-game hitting streak.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Phillies are 7-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-136, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Homer Bailey's no-hitter against San Francisco on July 2 is a distant memory after yielding 10 hits in each of his last two starts - both losses.

Hot batting stat: Pittsburgh's Pedro Alvarez (54) and Cincinnati's Jay Bruce (53) are first and second in home runs among National League players since the start of 2012.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-2 in the Pirates last 10 overall.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (-102, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nats starter Jordan Zimmermann has kept the ball in the yard in six of his last eight outings.

Hot batting stat: Dodgers SS Hanley Ramirez is 8-for-18 in his career versus Zimmermann.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 4-1 in SP Clayton Kershaw's last five starts versus the Nationals.

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers (-162, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Wily Peralta gave up only one run in 21 1/3 frames in victories over Arizona and Cincinnati and a no-decision versus Washington in his last three starts.

Hot batting stat: Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy has punished Miami pitching in 2013 with 10 hits in 18 at-bats and nine RBIs in five games after a 4-for-4 effort Saturday.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings.

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-235, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Cards starter Adam Wainwright is 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in nine games (six starts) against San Diego.

Cold batting stat: Padres 3B Chase Headley is 2-for-14 (.143) in his career against Wainwright.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are 1-5 in their last six games with umpire Marty Foster behind home plate.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-168, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Giants starter Madison Bumgarner has recorded six straight quality starts, including three victories in a row.

Cold batting stat: The Diamondbacks are 3-for-29 with runners in scoring position in their last five games.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 3-12 in their last 15 road games.

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (-153, 10)

Hot pitching stat: Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood has recorded quality starts in four of his last five outings.

Hot batting stat: Colorado's top hitters have fared well against Cubs starter Edwin Jackson, with Carlos Gonzalez (5-for-7), Michael Cuddyer (5-for-9), Troy Tulowitzki (4-for-5) and Dexter Fowler (3-for-5) leading the way.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Colorado.

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Sunday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-116, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Rays starter Chris Archer is coming off a complete-game shutout of the Houston Astros his last time out. He has not surrendered an earned run in his last two starts.

Cold batting stat: Toronto's Brett Lawrie is just 2-for-15 in his previous four games since coming off the DL.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Rays are 5-0 in Archer's last five starts.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (+108, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers starter Doug Fister  has surrendered seven home runs over his last six outings after serving up only two in his first 13.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera is 14-for-32 with six extra-base hits against Royals starter James Shields.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 65 percent chance of thunderstorms during the game. Wind will blow in from center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Royals are 8-1 in Shields' last nine starts.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (+174, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners starter Felix Hernandez posted his fifth consecutive victory July 13 when he allowed seven hits over eight scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Cold batting stat: Astros 1B Carlos Penia is a career 2-for-20 against King Felix.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Hernandez's last eight Sunday starts.

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (+130, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Indians starter Justin Masterson was reached for five runs on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings against Minnesota on May 3.

Hot batting stat: Twins C Joe Mauer has hit safely in eight straight games to boost his average to .323 - second in the AL.

Weather: Cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Wind will blow in from center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-1-1 in Masterson's last seven starts versus the Twins.

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels (+110, 8)

Hot pitching stat: A's starter Bartolo Colon has gone 9-1 over his last 12 starts, allowing three runs twice and two or fewer in each of the other 10 outings.

Hot batting stat: Angels slugger Albert Pujols has gone 4-for-8 with a solo home run over the first two games of the series.

Weather: Mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-70s. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Athletics are 14-2 in Colon's last 16 starts as a favorite.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-131, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: O's starter Chris Tillman has won two of three outings against Texas while limiting the Rangers to just a .205 batting average.

Cold batting stat: Texas LF David Murphy is 2-for-9 in his career versus Tillman.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 games with umpire Joe West behind home plate.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-135, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Yanks lefty C.C. Sabathia has surrendered 21 home runs in 20 starts, including seven in his last five turns.

Hot batting stat: Boston DH David Ortiz has recorded two hits in each of the first two games of the series.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston.


Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox (+114, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: The Braves may look to jump on the first pitch: opponents are hitting .370 on Sox starter Jose Quintana’s first offering with four homers and a 1.037 OPS.

Hot batting stat: Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman belted a two-run homer in his first start since jamming his thumb in Saturday's 10-6 loss.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 21

AL Betting Notes

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay

Friday – Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 5
Saturday – Tampa Bay 4 Toronto 3

Expert Analysis – Bruce Marshall: The Rays are an MLB-best 43-23 since May 8 after claiming their fourth straight win on Saturday at the expense of the Blue Jays.  Tampa Bay has been getting it done in all areas, committing only three errors during a 16-2 stretch while the pitching staff has posted a 2.09 ERA. The Rays are also scoring 5 runs per game with 18 home runs and a .283 average with RISP over that stretch.  We also like Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer, who is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA over his last five outings. Although Blue Jays knuckler R.A. Dickey has fared well vs. the Rays in the past, he also lost his last two starts before the All-Star break while posting a 5.54 ERA in those games.

Detroit at Kansas City

Friday – Kansas City 1 Detroit 0
Saturday – Kansas City 6 Detroit 5

Expert Analysis – Tony Stoffo: This starting pitcher matchup of Doug Lister and James Shields favors Kansas City in a big way here. First off Fister has not been sharp as of late as in his last 3 starts he has a 7.00 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP. Add in the fact that he also has not pitched well against the Royals in the past with a 1-4 mark, and you can see how the Royals have the edge against him in this scenario. While Shields is just the opposite as he was always pitched well against the Tigers as his 5-1 record against them will attest to. Plus, the Royals are 4-0 in Shields' last four home start and the Royals are 8-1 in Shields' last nine starts.

Cleveland at Minnesota

Friday – Minnesota 3 Cleveland 2
Saturday - Minnesota 3 Cleveland 2

Expert Analysis – Marc Lawrence: The Tribe wraps up a three-game series with the Twins at Target Field when they send All-Star hurler Justin Masterson to the hill against Scott Diamond.   In doing so the Indians know Masterson is 4-2 in day starts and 5-3 against the A. L. Central this season.  On the flip side, Diamond is 1-6 with a 6.57 ERA in his last seven team starts and 2-6 in his career team starts during July.  Back the better team and the better arm here today.

Houston vs. Seattle

Friday – Seattle 10 Houston 7
Saturday – Seattle 4 Houston 2

Expert Analysis – Matt Zylbert: Oh man, you have to like this under at 8. I think Vegas is making a pretty big mistake giving up that advantage of potentially trapping under backers in the event of a 7-1 or 6-2, such as in the last instance  Felix Hernandez faced the Astros. That was an under I had as well - and lost with a final 7-1 score - although that was completely thanks to Houston starter Brad Peacock, who ultimately barely lasted in the starting rotation, and isn’t even on the big-league roster at this point. In any event, Hernandez will be pitted against a much superior starter this time around in Jordan Lyles, who has quietly been one of the few bright spots for a club that was destined for the American League cellar. In fact, Lyles has numbers that should open some eyes about his potential outlook as a serious contributor to this staff for a long time: 4-3, 4.02 ERA, 55:24 K:BB ratio. Not tremendously eye-opening, but still signs of progress for a young man that was mostly inconsistent in his first full season as a starter one year ago. In 2013, Lyles is proving to Houston management that he is indeed legit and here to stay, and while he’s coming off his first rough patch of the season (Three out of his past four starts have seen Lyles allow four runs or more), I think the all-star break will be enough off a mental break to get him back on track, plus he’s already racked up a terrific outing against these same Mariners under his belt. Just over a month ago, Lyles arguably had the start of his life in Seattle, shutting out the home team over seven brilliant innings, while striking out a career-high 10.

Oakland at Los Angeles Angels

Friday – Los Angeles 4 Oakland 1
Saturday – Los Angeles 2 Oakland 0

Expert Analysis – Ed Meyer: The Angels are going for the sweep here after shutting out the Athletics 2-0 yesterday. The Halos are a team that has gotten the job done in this spot, as they are 9-0 in the last game of a home series when they are off a multiple-run win in which they never trailed. LA has won these nine games by an average of 3.5 runs. Further, the Angels are 23-10 at home vs. an AL foe when they are off TWO wins in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series, including 7-0 their last seven. This is a revenge spot in which the Athletics have not done well. Oakland is 2-15 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pick and they are seeking immediate revenge for a shutout loss.

Texas vs. Baltimore

Friday – Baltimore 3 Texas 1
Saturday – Baltimore 7 Texas 4

Expert Analysis – Kevin Rogers: The Rangers were tripped up the last two nights by the Orioles, as Texas tries to avoid the sweep at home tonight.  Chris Tillman has been fantastic for the O's this season, winning seven of his last eight starts, including seven of eight on the road overall.  Meanwhile, Martin Perez has stepped things up at home, allowing just one run in Arlington this season in two starts.

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