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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 10
Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 10
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit -135 over KANSAS CITY: The Royals are playing good ball again, as they have won 5 in row, but 2 of those wins were at home vs Minnesota and the other 3 were vs lowly Houston. Tonight they take a huge step up in competition so the wins won't come as easily. Detroit is leading the AL Central and they are off of 3 game sweep over a very good Cleveland squad. Tonight they send out Doug Fister, who has pitched really well in his last 3 starts, but the Tigers are 0-3 in those starts. That's because they have given him just 0.67 rpg in those starts. Over those starts Doug has a 2.42 ERA and an 0.99 WHIP, so he has been pitching really well and I see that continuing here. Guthrie has pitched well for KC, but I still think he has been pitching over his head and Detroit will be able to hit him. Detroit is 7-2 the last 9 in the series, while Kansas city is 2-8 their last 10 as a dog. I expect both trends to continue here.
Tampa Bay/ Boston Under 8: Let's hope the pitching here can cool off these offenses. I think they can. John Lackey has been pitching out of his mind lately as he has a 1.44 ERA in his last 4 starts and a less than 1.00 WHIP over that stretch as well. He does have a 4.56 ERA on the road, but still his road starts have averaged just 6.4 rpg and not one of those starts have put up more than 8 runs. He has allowed 5 ER's in 3 of his last 4 starts in this park, but he is just totally locked in right now to think he will struggle in this one. Alex Cobb has been solid for the Rays this year, especially at home, where he has a 1.91 ERA and an 0.92 WHIP in 6 starts this year. Alex has allowed more than 3 ER's just once this year and he has a 1.25 ERA in his last 4 starts. The offenses are hot right now, but these two starters have the stuff to cool them down and I expect that to happen. 5 or 6 runs at most here.
Dodgers/ Diamondbacks Under 6: Clayton has pitched very well this year, but just hasn't gotten much run support. Clayton has a 1.93 ERA overall, but just a 5-4 record, thanks to just 2.8 rpg worth of support. At home he is 4-3, despite a 1.55 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP. His mates have given him just 2.25 rpg worth of support at home and his home starts have averaged just 4.8 rpg. Clayton has pitched well vs the D-Backs, with a 3.03 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but he is 0-4 in those starts, while 5 of his last 6 starts vs them have put up no more than 5 total runs. Arizona hitters have hit just .198 with 1 homer in 162 AB's vs Clayton. The Dodger offense hasn't just struggled with Clayton on the mound, but overall as well as they have scored just 2.2 rpg in their last 5 games and just 3.31 rpg at home. They will be taking on a struggling Miley, but wad has pitched well in this park, posting a 2.17 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. Arizona's offense is hot, but they don't hit Kershaw well, while LA's offense will continue to struggle vs Miley.
2 UNIT PLAY
SEATTLE -1.5 (-115) over Houston: The Astros had a nice little run but this is not a team that can sustain that for very long. They still have very little offense and no Pitching at all, out side of Bud Norris. The Astros have put up 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games and must now face Iwakuma, who has an 0.76 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.94 ERA overall on the year. At home he has been nearly unhittable, with a 1.08 ERA and an unheard of 0.55 WHIP in his his starts at home. Dallas Keuchel has pitched ok for the Astros but he still has a 4.70 ERA overall and a 1.55 WHIP on the year. Both teams are not playing great right now, but Houston got the better of Seattle earlier in the year and I see a Seattle payback here.
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