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MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 16

MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 16

Three Fade Candidates On The Mound Thursday

Another light schedule in the bigs but plenty of 'fade' material is on the mound Thursday. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Washington Nationals and highlights three starting pitchers that might be worth a look as fade bets.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (1-5, 3.10 ERA)

Strasburg has not won a decision since opening day and Washington has just one victory in Strasburg's previous seven starts. The ERA is fine at 3.10, but the Nats supply Strasburg with a paltry 2.25 runs per game. That total ranks him second last in the NL.

Strasburg will try for his first win since April 1 as he takes the mound against the San Diego Padres Thursday. He lasted four innings and gave up four runs in his lone start versus the Pads in 2012.

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-1, 3.72 ERA)

Quintana had a pretty good start to the season with two victories and a very good 2.78 ERA in his first four starts. Since then, the Sox have lost his last three starts and the righty is riding a 5.06 ERA over those previous three outings.

Quintana will take the hill against the Los Angeles Angels Thursday. His last start was coincidentally against the Angels. The Sox lost 3-2 with Quintana allowing three runs (two earned) in six innings.

Felix Doubront, Boston Red Sox (3-1, 6.40 ERA)

Doubront was torched for six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start on May 3 against the Texas Rangers. The lefty came out of the bullpen on May 8 and gave up another six runs in 5 1/3 innings of relief work versus the Minnesota Twins.

Doubront gets the start against the surging Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. He started three games versus the Rays in 2012 and surrendered eight runs in 16 2/3 innings in those starts.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 16

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

A.L Central Leading Tigers hanging on to first place by a thread over Cleveland hope Justin Verlander (4-3, 1.93 ERA) can help them build some breathing room when they take on A.L. West Leading Rangers and Yu Darvish (6-1, 273. ERA). So far this season it hasn't been a good bet taking Detroit when Verlander starts. Tigers are just 4-4 in his eight trips to the mound costing backers -$379 at the betting window including a loss last time out as -$2.53 fave vs Cleveland getting chased after five innings of six hit, 4 run ball. On the other side, it's been profitable backing Texas with Darvish as Rangers are 7-1 in his starts stuffing +$558 into betting accounts. Texas dominated Detroit last year winning 7-of-10 including 3-0 handing the ball to Darvish. That in mind and the fact Rangers are on a sparkling 15-3 (+$958) stretch as favorite at the Ballpark in Arlington with the hurler the betting market has Texas laying -$1.25. Other trends: Rangers are 14-9 (+$301) L23 as home faves of -$1.10 to -$1.35, 21-9 (+$758) L30 opening a series at home as a favorite. As for Tigers, they're dogs for just the third time this season (0-2) and head onto the field 3-6 L9 as underdogs vs non-division teams, 2-5 as a road dog after a loss the previous night.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 16

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers

LAS VEGAS -- Usually when an ace takes the mound after his team has lost a few games, there is a little extra zip in the step of the players behind him. With the big gun getting the ball, there’s typically a confident vibe in the locker room. But that hasn't been the case this season with the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg (1-5, 3.10 ERA).

After shutting down the Marlins, 2-0, on Opening Day, Strasburg is winless over his past seven starts, with the Nationals going 1-6 in those games. However, it’s not like Strasburg has been getting rocked. He’s simply not getting any support. In his eight starts, the Nationals have averaged only 2.2 runs a game.

Things don’t look much better for the San Diego native tonight at Petco Park against the Padres. The Nationals had been on a five-game win streak against quality teams like the Pirates and Tigers, but then went on to lose four of their past five against division cellar dwellers like the Cubs and Dodgers.

Over their last five games, the Nats’ starting pitching have been phenomenal, with a 1.82 ERA, but the bats have been quiet, averaging only 2.0 runs a game and hitting .207 with 46 strikeouts. They’ve hit only six of their last 46 (.133) chances with runners in scoring position, including going 0-for-9 in last night’s 3-1 loss to the Dodgers.

On the season, the Nationals’ (21-19) hitting numbers don’t suggest they’re even a .500 team, as they rank near the bottom in several key categories. They’re 28th in average (.231), on-base percentage (.292), slugging percentage (.370) and 27th in runs scored with 138.

Things won’t get any easier for the offense tonight, as they’ll likely have to make do without superstar Bryce Harper, who is still recovering shoulder and knee injuries stemming from his crash into the Dodger Stadium right-field scoreboard wall on Monday night. Taking out Harper’s .300 average, 10 home runs and 21 RBIs makes the Nats’ lineup even less imposing.

Tonight they’ll be facing Edinson Volquez (3-3, 5.15 ERA), who has settled into a nice groove after getting hammered in his first three starts, which is where most of his high ERA comes from. Over those first three games – he took the loss in all three – Volquez allowed 16 earned runs. Over his past five starts, he’s allowed only nine runs combined and grabbed the win in three of those games.

Beyond Volquez pitching much better, there’s even more to like out of the Padres (18-21), who have been a much better team since Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin have both been in the lineup together. They’ve won 13 of their last 19 games overall, and nine of their last 10 at Petco Park.

We’re going to ride with the Padres at home tonight, but the better wager in this game might be on UNDER 7 runs, based on the way the Nats have been hitting and pitching lately.

Texas heat

It doesn’t get any better than watching two fireballers go head to head, and tonight we get the season’s best pitching matchup thus far, with Justin Verlander (4-3, 193 ERA) and Yu Darvish (6-1, 2.73) squaring off.

Verlander is 7-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 11 starts against the Rangers, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA at Texas. Darvish won all three of his starts against the Tigers last season.

It’s tough go against either of these pitchers, although you’ve fared much better if you’ve gone against Verlander this season. We expect both of these pitchers to shine and continue their rolls over their respective opponents, which makes UNDER 7.5 runs the play here.

Thursday’s selections:

Padres (Volquez) +131 vs. Nationals

Padres/Nationals UNDER 7 (-120)

Tigers/Rangers UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Mets/Cardinals UNDER 7.5 (-105)

Red Sox (Doubront) +132 at Rays

Season to date record: 74-61 (+1488)

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