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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 8
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 8
Three Hot Over Pitchers On The Bump Wednesday
The over has been on fire in May and Wednesday features three solid candidates to top the total in their starts. Here's a look at three pitchers who take a combined 14-2 over/under record to the bump Wednesday.
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (2-1, 4.15 ERA, 6-0 O/U)
The Reds righty is second in the majors with a 6-0 over/under record this season. By no means has Leake been awful. He brings a respectable 4.15 ERA into his start Wednesday and has two quality starts on the year. The over trend can be attributed to the Reds supplying him with an excellent six runs per start.
Leake will start against the Atlanta Braves Wednesday. He pitched eight solid innings and gave up just one earned run in his lone start versus Atlanta in 2012.
Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals, (2-1, 1.07 ERA, 4-1 O/U)
Westbrook has been downright amazing this season and brings sparkling 1.07 ERA into his start Wednesday. He is another pitcher who gets great run support during his starts. The Cards provide Westbrook with 4.40 runs per start. But it is the Cards' bullpen that has spoiled a lot of Westbrook's outings. The Cardinals bullpen is last in the majors with a 5.45 ERA.
Westbrook gets the ball against the Chicago Cubs Wednesday. In three starts versus the Cubs last season, he gave up five earned runs in 19 innings.
Pedro Hernandez, Minnesota Twins, (1-0, 3.92 ERA, 4-1 O/U)
Hernandez is coming off a rough outing versus the Cleveland Indians on May 3. He gave up five earned runs in 5 1-3 innings of work. The young right-hander has yet to post a quality start on the year and has yet to go deeper than five innings.
Hernandez is slated to take the mound versus the Boston Red Sox Wednesday. In his lone start in 2012, as a member of the Chicago White Sox, Hernandez gave up eight earned runs in four innings versus the Red Sox.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 8
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
The Blue Jays on a season-high three-game win streak will be mighty anxious handing the ball to Ricky Romero (0-1, 6.75 ERA) when they play the third of this four game set against Rays at the Trop. Romero taking the loss in his first start of the season lasting just four innings has one win his last eighteen trips to the mound with Jays 3-15 over the span. Rays on the other hand will be feeling pretty good about their chances knowing they're 5-2 at home vs a left-handed starter and that they're ridding a 8-0 streak dating back to last season handing the ball to Matt Moore including 3-0 off back-2-back losses.
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals
The Detroit Tigers (19-11, +$309) and Washington Nationals (17-15, -$41) game yesterday was postponed so they try again Wednesday. Tigers sweeping Braves earlier this season are now 32-25 vs the Senior Circuit the past three seasons including 11-16 on the road (not counting playoff). Nationals already 3-0 vs the Junior Circuit this campaign are 26-28 L3Y's in IL play with 15-12 mark playing in Washington. The red-hot Tigers ridding a 9-1 streak have Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 1.82 ERA) toeing the rubber. The righty has had great success vs Nats posting a 1.97 ERA in going 8-0 with his teams 13-6 over the 19 starts (MI/FLA). Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 164 ERA) gets the call for Washington. The hurler off back-2-back shutouts giving up 3 hits over 17 innings has never faced Tigers and heads to the hill with a 4-6 TSR in IL play since joining Nats. The teams last collided in 2010 a series Tigers swept in Detroit marking six straight victories over Washington.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 8
MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
LAS VEGAS -- In past years, when looking at Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 1.66 ERA) at home against a pitcher who has had two consecutive rough starts like Wade Miley (2-1, 3.06 ERA), you’d think of laying a price like -175 all day. But the thought process gets a little tougher considering the Dodgers offense has averaged only 2.03 in run support behind Kershaw this season.
In his past three starts against the D-backs, that number drops even further, as in all the way to 0.00. The Dodgers have been shut out in Kershaw’s last three games against Arizona, including April 12 at Chase Field in a 3-0 loss.
The Dodgers have lost six straight, while the D-backs go for the sweep tonight. Arizona has won 14 of its last 19 games at Dodger Stadium, and 14 of their last 17 overall against L.A. You hate to bet against such a great pitcher like Kershaw, but if his team doesn’t score, he can’t win. And lately, that has been the case for Kershaw against Arizona.
The Dodgers have won four of Kershaw’s seven starts this season, but if you’ve been betting against him, you’re +520 in his losses and -400 in his four wins.
We’re going to ride with Arizona tonight and hope their mastery over Kershaw and the Dodgers continues.
A’s own Masterson
Justin Masterson started the season off with a bang by winning his first three starts while allowing only one run in 23 innings. But things have leveled off for him, as they normally do. He’s won only once in his past four starts while allowing 18 runs over 25 innings, including serving up his only three home runs of the season. The Indians have gone 2-2 in those games.
Despite Masterson’s recent struggles, the Indians (16-14) have been on a roll, winning eight of their last nine games. They’ve taken the first two games against the A’s in the current four-game set, which is great news for them since they had lost eight straight to Oakland prior to this series.
Masterson took the brunt of the Oakland wrath last season during three starts against them, as he gave up 19 runs, six home runs and walked nine in only 14 2/3 innings of work. Over his career, Masterson is 1-5 with a 10.36 ERA against the A’s.
On the other side, we’ve got A.J. Griffin (3-2, 3.79 ERA), who is coming off a strong 2-0 win Friday at Yankee Stadium, where he scattered six hits and one walk through in seven innings of work.
This is one of those situations where you’d like to lean more with the streaking team like Indians who are currently smoking the ball and have baseball’s best slugging percentage (.470). But despite their offensive success, it’s hard to ignore Masterson’s recent troubles, especially against A’s hitters. We’re going with the A’s tonight in a high-scoring game.
Winning the close games
Last season, the Orioles were 29-9 in one-run games, one of the best win percentages in those situations in baseball history. It helped them make the playoffs, but it wasn’t necessarily good for bettors laying -1.5 runs on the run-line. The Orioles weren’t always the favorites in those games, but those are the teams you like to stay away from when needing to win by two runs. The Reds (31-21) and Giants (30-20) didn’t have as good of a win-percentage in those games as the Orioles, but almost a third of their 2012 games were decided by one run.
The Giants and Reds are among the leaders in this category again, each at 9-5, but it’s the White Sox who have been involved in the most one-run games and are 7-8 in those situations. The best win percentage in one-run games has been the surprising Rangers at 7-2, who somehow look even better atop the AL West without Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Michael Young.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have come back to earth with a 6-5 record in one-run games this season, as many experts predicted. Their amazing 2012 record in these type of games is what experts cited as the reason the Orioles would be closer to a .500 team this season. But Baltimore is 20-13 overall, only one game behind the Red Sox in the AL East.
Best OVER-UNDER teams
The A’s continue to lead the way as baseball’s best OVER team at 26-8 O/U, 13-4 at home and away. The Angels (22-10 O/U) and Brewers (22-9 O/U) aren’t far behind.
The surprising OVER team this season has been the Astros, with 21-10 O/U record. We expected their pitching to be bad – which it is with a league-high 5.76 ERA, more than a full run higher than the second worst team, the Blue Jays at 4.71 – but their offense produced from a bunch of castoffs has been impressive. Eleven teams have scored fewer runs than the Astros (130), and 13 teams have a worse batting average (.247).
The Tigers have been a solid OVER team at 19-10 this season, but it gets much better when keying on them at home, where they are 10-3 to the OVER.
The best UNDER teams this season have been from the Windy City, as the White Sox have stayed UNDER in 19 of their 28 games, and Cubs have been UNDER in 20 of their 33 games.
The D-backs have gone 6-0 in extra-inning game and are 6-1 in day games. The White Sox are 1-5 against left-handed starters, while the Braves have gone 8-3 against them.
L.A.’s two teams hate their respective divisions. The Dodgers are 5-15 against their NL West rivals, while the Angels are 6-14 within the AL West. Meanwhile, the Giants are 15-6 against West teams, and the A’s are 13-3.
The Cubs might be respectable if they played more night games. They‘ve gone 9-8 under the lights, but only 4-12 in the day.
Only eight teams have winning road records, with the Orioles leading the way in the AL at 12-8 and the Cardinals at 13-7 in the NL.
A’s (Griffin) +114 at Indians
A’s/Indians OVER 8.5 runs (+105)
Nationals (Zimmerman) +102 vs. Tigers
D-backs (Miley) +162 at Dodgers
Pirates (Burnett) EV vs. Mariners
Angels (Blanton) -140 at Astros
Angels/Astros OVER 9.5 (EV)
Season to date record: 58-40 (+1954)
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