Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Chicago at Miami
The Heat look to open the series and take advantage of a Chicago team that is coming off a 99-93 win over New Jersey and is just 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU victory. Miami is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-11 1/2)

Game 701-702: Golden State at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.303; San Antonio 130.755
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Chicago at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.485; Miami 128.617
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 13; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-11 1/2); Over

NHL

Boston at Toronto
The Maple Leafs look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-5 in its last 6 road games against a team with a winning record. Toronto is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110)

Game 9-10: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.576; Toronto 11.456
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over

Game 11-12: Washington at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.962; NY Rangers 12.857
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under

Game 13-14: Anaheim at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.659; Detroit 11.940
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under

Game 15-16: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.767; Los Angeles 11.412
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+130); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at Cincinnati
The Braves look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 1-6 in Bronson Arroyo's last 7 starts against teams with a winning record. Atlanta is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105)

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 15.812; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.965
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (LeBlanc) 15.071; San Diego (Cashner) 16.590
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-175); Under

Game 955-956: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.403; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.093
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 13.955; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.133
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over

Game 959-960: Oakland at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 16.293; Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.108
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over

Game 961-962: Minnesota at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Worley) 15.172; Boston (Buchholz) 16.544
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-240); Under

Game 963-964: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 14.125; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.430
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.583; Cubs (Feldman) 15.402
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Toronto Blue JaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mark Buehrle takes the hill for the Blue Jays in their series opener at Tampa Bay Monday evening knowing he has cashed in 9 of his last 11 team starts during the month of May, including 5-1 his last six away. With Buehrle in fine current form, look for him to improve to 10-5 in his career team starts versus the Rays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs. Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers and Cubs will take a mutual off day and make up one of their postponed games on Monday night with Nick Tepesch against Scott Feldman. Tepesch draws the matchup against an atrocious Cubs offense that has posted the third-worst on-base percentage against right handers at a measly .293. The hitter-friendly offensive conditions at Wrigley should not affect Tepesch, who is inducing ground balls at a 56.2% clip, which is well above league average. He has issued just five walks in his 28.2 innings of work and the Cubs are batting just .239 as a team. The Cubs have lost four straight, dropping to 11-20, while the Rangers have won three in a row and are 20-11. Losing an off day shouldn't be a problem for the Rangers, who know that they're going to need every win possible, while the Cubs may not come ready to play since they aren't going to be much of a factor.
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Ultimately, this play is a fade of Scott Feldman. His peripheral stats indicate that he cannot last pitching in a hitter-friendly park at Wrigley. He has a 3.34, but that's mostly smoke and mirrors, with a FIP of 5.09 and a xFIP of 4.30. Both of those numbers signal that regression is imminent. Opposing hitters are batting just .216 off of him, which is well below his career batting average against of .270. Part of that is the league change, but another part of that is a string of luck that is going to run out sooner rather than later. Feldman's last two starts have come against San Diego and Miami, two very weak offenses. In his three other starts, he has allowed 14 runs in 10 innings with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts. The Rangers are not a weak offense.

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Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres    
Play: Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marlins destroy Roy Halladay and the Phillies on Sunday, 14-2, and still don't get any respect judging by their huge 'dog price in this matchup.
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OK, the Marlins aren't worthy of much respect. Scoring 14 runs doesn't erase the stigma of being the worst team in the National League.
But still this price is way out of whack. The Marlins have beaten the Padres five of the last six times and the pitching matchup is Wade LeBlanc versus Andrew Cashner.
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LeBlanc is a stiff - when he's pitching at any other stadium except Petco Park. LeBlanc pitched for the Padres from 2008 to 2011 and was tough at home compiling a 2.97 ERA in 25 career appearances, including 24 starts, at Petco. This will be his first start at Petco against his former team and he's going to be pumped. He also knows his former teammates well.
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Cashner isn't nearly good enough to be in this kind of chalk range. I've always thought he's a better reliever than starter. Cashner lacks stamina and control. He's only lasted four innings in two of his three starts since joining the rotation. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He's faced the Marlins four times - all in relief - and has an 11.57 ERA against them.
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By bombing the Phillies, the Marlins showed they are capable of putting up runs despite not having their best offensive player, Giancarlo Stanton. He's been replaced by rookie Marcell Ozuna, who is swinging a hot bat. Ozuna is 11-for-23 in six games since replacing Stanton. That's the most hits ever by a Marlin rookie during his first six games.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals fit a nice system that has won 19 of 22 times since last My and plays on home favorites off a 1 run home favored win and scored 5 or more runs with 10 or more hits, vs an opponent like Chicago that is off a 1 runs road dog loss and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits. The Royals are 10-3 in day games and have won 14 of 21 vs right handers. Chicago has lost 5 of 7 as a road dog from +125 to +150 and are scoring just 2 runs per game on .199 hitting in division games and 3 runs per game in day games. J.Shields goes for KC and he has a solid 2.81 home era this season. Chicago has C. Sale going bur have dropped 6 of his last 8 road starts. Sale has allowed 7 earned runs in 12 innings in his last 2 starts here both losses. Look for KC To take the finale.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants will host the Phillies on Monday night in Game 1 of a three game set. The Phillies got worked over by the Marlins last night, with Roy Halladay getting lit up for nine runs in just 2 1/3 innings.
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They will look for a better performance from another big name pitcher when they send Cliff Lee to the mound tonight. Lee (2-2 , 3.46 ERA) hasn't missed many bats lately. allowing five runs on nine hits over six innings in a 6-0 loss at Cleveland his last time out. Prior to that he gave up three runs on 10 hits over seven frames in a 6-4 loss at home versus the Pirates.
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The Giants will hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who's off to an impressive start this season. Bumgarner (3-0, 1.55 ERA) tossed seven innings of scoreless ball allowing just three hits in a 2-1 win at Arizona his last time out. He's yet to allow more than two runs in any of his six starts, and the Giants have won five of those six games.
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The Philadelphia bats have been quiet the past two games, managing just two runs in back to back losses to Miami. It's not going to get any easier against Bumgarner at AT&T Park.

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Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's vs. Cleveland IndiansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland A'sFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jarrod Parker (1-4, 7.36 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. Parker is coming off his first win of the year, giving up six hits with three walks and four runs over six frames at home over the Angels on Tuesday. It was a much needed effort and Parker will now look to parlay that momentum into another big showing (remember, Parker finished 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA overall last year. He was 7-3 on the road with a 4.54 ERA). Parker will be opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 7.13 ERA), who after suffering through a brutal 2012 and start to the 2013 campaign, is coming off his best outing in quite a while, going seven shut-out frames vs. the soft-hitting Royals on Monday (remember, Jimenez was 4-12 with a deplorable 6.82 ERA at home last year). After yesterday's 5-4 winner over the Yankees, Oakland comes into this game a battle tested 8-6 on the road this year. Cleveland is 6-7 thus far in front of theme town crowd after yesterday's 4-2 loss to the Twins. While Jimenez looked decent in his last outing, I'm going to be cautious in reading too much into that start and believe Parker has the tools in place to build off his latest effort; great line value here. Consider a second look at the A's in this one.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds return home riding a nice little winning streak after sweeping their weekend set with the hapless Cubs. The Braves were on a three-game losing streak heading into Sunday's action, but they got the offense rolling as they picked up a needed win against the Mets. Both teams should be excited about this upcoming series, as it could well be a very early preview of one that could take place this October.
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Paul Maholm gets the call for the Braves. The southpaw has lost three straight following a terrific start to the season. But Maholm has arguably had just one bad outing all season, and I think he's got a decent shot at containing the Reds. The key to Maholm's success or failure here might well be Brandon Phillips. The Reds 2B has enjoyed facing Maholm over the years and has taken him deep four times. The rest of the Reds likely starters are only 11/61 against Maholm though, so if he can avoid major trouble with Phillips, the lefty will have a good chance to succeed here.
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Bronson Arroyo continues to get guys out, despite having what can only be called underwhelming stuff. Arroyo was never a big strikout guy, but he's basically not missing any bats these days, with a feeble 3.9 K rate so far this season. Yet he churns out starts that might not be spectacular, but are more often than not good enough to keep his team in the game. That said, this could be a lineup that gives him trouble. The likely Braves starters have been mostly ordinary against Arroyo (21/85, 5 HR). But this is a big swing and miss team and if they can make contact on a regular basis, Atlanta becomes very dangerous.
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There's an intangible at work here. Brian McCann is slated to come off the DL and will go right to work behind the dish for the Braves. With the retirement of Chipper Jones, McCann is now viewed as the captain of this club, and I expect there to be a big mental lift here as he gets back on the field for the first time this season.
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The Reds can be very rude to lefties at the GAB, so Maholm has his work cut out here. But the pitching metrics display a clear cut edge for Maholm against Arroyo, and I like the McCann factor coming into play as well. The dog should command a good deal of money here, so this is a game likely best played early, and the Braves are my choice to come away with the win.

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Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

The Giants just finished up a series with the rival Dodgers and now the Phillies come to town with ace Cliff Lee. He is 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA against San Francisco. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the National League West, while the Giants are 1-5 in starter Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. National League East. And the Phillies are 16-4 in Lees last 20 road starts against a team with a winning record. Play the Phillies.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco GiantsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Maybe it's time for Phillies fans to accept that their team is about to be disassembled, and soon, after managing just two runs and five hits over the past two days in unsightly home losses vs. the lowly Marlins. The aging core of the Phils is not delivering, with an OBP of under .300, and the staff is mostly a shambles with Roy Halladay's collapse being only part of the problem. They'll be tempted to be a seller at the trade deadline if the pattern doesn't change ASAP. Another issue is starter Cliff Lee, who has been inconsistent and brings an 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA over his last three starts into AT&T park on Monday night. Expect Giants starter and new staff ace Madison Bumgarner (3-0, 1.55 ERA) to get a bit more run support than he has received in recent outings as SF shoots for a seventh consecutive win.

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Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The finale of this three-game series sets up as a beauty with both teams sending their aces to the mound - Chris Sale for the White Sox and James Shields for the Royals.
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Pitcher's duels often look good on paper but fizzle on the field. I don't expect that to be the case here, however.
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Sale knows the importance of this start, as his White Sox have dropped the first two games in this series, and are in danger of falling a full seven games back of the A.L. Central lead, with four teams to chase. The left-hander has been sharp over his last three outings, allowing just two earned runs over seven innings in each start. He's allowed just 14 hits over those 21 innings of work, which has helped negate the fact that he's issued seven walks and allowed a pair of home runs over that stretch.
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Chicago owns a slim 4-3 edge in Sale's seven career starts against the Royals, but it's interesting to note that it was favored in all seven of those games. The shoe is on the other foot here.
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James Shields will counter for the Royals. After pitching well, but coming up empty in the win column in back-to-back outings, Shields has gotten it right over his last two starts, working 15 innings and allowing only five earned runs, with the Royals winning both of those games. The opposition has scored four runs or less in five of Shields' six starts so far this season. He's certainly looked comfortable pitching here at Kauffman Stadium, posting a 2.81 ERA and an even more impressive 0.69 WHIP.
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After getting lit up by the White Sox in his first start against them last season, Shields has settled down, holding them to three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in his last two outings versus the Sox.
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I have a lot of confidence in both of these bullpens, but we saw them struggle in Sunday's ball game, with the Royals relief corps giving up four runs and the White Sox allowing three, all after recording two outs in the ninth inning. Expect a bounce-back performance (that is if the 'pens are even needed today).
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The last time Sale and Shields met, the result was a 1-0 White Sox victory on Opening Day. We might see a little more offense today, but I'm confident the winner will top out at four runs, assuring us of at least a 'push' and hopefully a win.

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Big Kat SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs. Chicago CubsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Cubs will look to break a four game losing streak when they take on the Texas Rangers tonight at Wrigley Field in Chicago in what is a make-up game from a rained out contest back on April 17th. Chicago comes into the game after being swept at home in a 3 game set against the Reds while Texas enters the contest after winning three straight over Boston, outscoring the Red Sox 16-4 during the series. The Cubs will send Scott Feldman to the hill, who arguably has been the act of the staff for the Cubs this season. He is just 2-3 on the season with a 3.34 ERA but won his last two starts and comes into the game off the best start in his career. Feldman pitched a 3 hit complete game while striking out 12 in a win over San Diego on Wednesday night. He will be opposed by rookie Nick Tepesch, who is scheduled to be on the mound for the Rangers. Tepesch has been inconsistent during his rookie season, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.54 ERA but comes into tonight's game off a start where he was tagged for 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the White Sox. The Cubs, who have struggled out of the gate, have actually had some success in the spot they are in here tonight as they have posted a 4-1 record in their last 5 inter-league games against a right-handed starter. The Rangers, who despite losing Josh Hamilton currently lead the AL West by 2.5 games, will be without Lance Berkman tonight as the DH is expected to be out of the lineup due to the game being played in an NL park. This play probably won't make it to our Member Plays list as it has been very tough to back the Cubs right now but these two teams have played to the under in 5 straight games so look for the game to be close throughout. The two split a pair earlier in the season and we look for Alfonso Soriano and Anthony Rizzo (combined .407 AVG over the past 6 games) to lead the Cubs to victory at a nice plus price at home tonight.

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PORT PORT SPORTS

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -140 AND OVER 7

The Royals pulled off their second straight win in this odd 3-game set, going for a sweep in today's make-up game, due a freezing rain-out on Friday. Ah, the Midwest. But Kansas City picked up the impressive come-from-behind win on their home turf in yesterday's affair, as Billy Butler picked up the 2-out, game-tying 2B in the bottom of the 9th, before Gordon knocked home the game-winner in the bottom of the 10th to finish off the demoralizing loss for Chicago. But the Royals are suddenly soaring, having now won 4 in a row and posting a 7-1 ML record in their L8 overall. This team just continues to hang around in 2nd place behind the Tigers in the Central, and thehave helped their cause by compiling a 10-4 ML record in their L14 and an equally impressive 14-6 ML record in their L20. They have also been money at home lately as well, cashing in at a 10-3 clip for their backers in their L13 games played in KC. They have also fared well against the White Sox in recent meetings, picking up 3 straight wins and holding a 5-2 ML record against their division mates in the L7 head-to-head match-ups. Dating even further back to the 2011 season, the Royals have actually pretty much owned the Sox, picking up 19 wins in their L27 battles. To even further drive the point home, Kansas City has completely dominated Chicago at their home ballpark, winning 7 of the L8 meetings between the two teams there, as well as going 13-4 ML in their L17 and 20-9 ML in their 29 games in KC. The Royals last had a chance to sweep the White Sox at home last season, and managed to pick up the sweep for the 3 game set. Also, Kansas City has gone 7-1 ML in their L8 close-out games to end a series between the two teams. If you need further proof, these Royals hitters have had a lot of success at the plate against Sale, despite his modest 5-5 record and 2.74 career ERA against the franchise. Butler (8/25 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB); Escobar (12/27 2B 2 BB); Perez (6/19 2 2B, 2 RBI); Cain (5/17 2B, HR, RBI); Getz (6/17 RBI) and Dyson (1/2 BB) have combined to hit .355 against Sale in 107 total AB. And while Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordan and Francoeur have struggled against the lefty, hitting a mere .228 combined in 79 AB, although they have also produced 5 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI and 8 BB between them. Take the KANSAS CITY ROYALS and the OVER in this early Monday morning match-up

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MLB Predictions

San Francisco Giants -141

We bet against the Phillies last night and they lost their second straight 14-2 against the Marlins. The loss was their second straight and 4th in their last 6 games which brings them to 14-18 on the season. They are also just 6-8 on the road. The Giants were 4-3 winners last night to complete the sweep of the Dodgers. It was their second straight series sweep as they've won 6 in a row now to improve their record to 19-12 on the season. They are also a stellar 11-4 at home on the year. Tonight we will see an all lefty match up with Cliff Lee on the mound for Philly and Madison Bumgarner taking the rubber for San Francisco. lee is just 2-2 on the season with a 3.46 ERA, .250 OBA and 1.15 WHIP. In his last three starts he has given up 26 hits and 12 earned runs over 19 innings of work. The Phillies were winless in those three starts and are just 2-4 in his 6 starts overall. Bumgarner is 3-0 on the year with a solid 1.55 ERA, .181 OBA and 0.84 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has given up just 12 hits and 3 earned runs over 20.1 innings of work. He has struck out 19 and walked just 2 over those three starts and the team went 2-1 over those starts and are 5-1 in his 6 starts overall. Take note that the Phillies are 29th in the MLB hitting just .207 against lefties this year with a .263 OBP (Giants are 17th hitting .246 with a .282 OBP). Philadelphia is just 3-7 in their last 10 games vs a left handed starter, 5-14 in their last 19 road games vs a lefty starter, and 1-4 in Lee's last 5 road starts. The Giants are 25-9 in their last 34 home games, 38-17 in their last 55 games vs a lefty starter, 6-1 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts overall and 22-6 in his last 28 starts as a home favorite. This will be these two teams first meeting this year but the Giants took 4 of 6 last season including 2 of 3 at home. The Giants are rolling, Bumgarner has been much better than Lee this year and as of late, and the Phillies really struggle hitting lefties. I'll lay the chalk on the Giants to continue their streak at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

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Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota was able to win the series finale in Cleveland on Sunday, the second straight road series it has done that in to avoid a sweep. Now it heads into Boston trying to get back to .500 for the year in the start of this four-game set. Minnesota has split its last eight games and it is hoping to get Vance Worley into the win column for the first time in a Twins uniform. He has been very inconsistent and is coming off a rough start in Detroit where he allowed six runs on 10 hits in just 4.2 innings. The good news is that the last time be blew up, allowing six runs against the Mets, he bounced back with a quality start next time out and I expect a similar result here. Boston was playing very well before this weekend as it got swept at Texas and we may finally be seeing this team starting to come back down to earth. The offense has put up just seven runs the last four games and it will be tough for even Clay Buchholz to keep his run going with no support. He has been outstanding as he is 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six starts, all of which have been quality outings. His last outing though he was accused of using a foreign substance and whether true or not, that could be a huge mental issue going into this game. His current run is not going to last forever and he has been hit or miss against the Twins throughout his career, posting a 4.25 ERA over five starts. The price is right for the Twins to come away with the upset on Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

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Braves/Reds Over  7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The total on this game is set far too low considering how well these teams have been batting and the starting pitchers for the day. Atlanta is coming off a 9 run performance against the Mets last night. The Reds have scored 6 or more runs in their last three games and they average 5.4 runs per game at home. Paul Maholm has not been throwing well in his last three starts. He has allowed 13 earned runs in just 17.7 innings pitched. It seems the Red’s Bronson Arroyo is also losing track of his stuff. He has posted a 0-2 record in his last three starts giving up 21 hits in 21 innings pitched and has only 8 strikeouts. With these two struggling pitchers on the mound facing red hot hitting squads we have the perfect combination for this game going over the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

Bob Balfe

Spurs -8.5 over Warriors

Golden State was impressive in their series win over Denver. This team is amazing at shooting the 3 ball, but so are the Spurs. Golden State does a few things well. The Spurs do everything well. I just don't see this being a fun series to watch.  The Warriors can win if they hit all their 3's in high scoring games and if they don't the Spurs will blow them out. Game 1 is so important. In my opinion, this Spurs team is a dynasty. They will get overlooked 20 years from now because of Kobe and the Lakers, but if they can win another title together I think they leap frog everybody and become the best team in the last 15 years. This is a small market team that has been doing amazing things over the past two decades and just doesn't get the attention the Lakers got. I think the Warriors have hit their ceiling for these playoffs. Take the Spurs.


Giants -140 over Phillies

There is not one area in which the Phillies are better than the Giants. San Fran can hit left handed pitching while the Phillies can not. The Giants have the best bullpen and this year Bumgarner's numbers have been better than Lee's. The Phillies are not playing solid baseball and its tough heading out to the West Coast under these conditions going up against a very hot team. Take the Giants.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

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Arizona Diamondbacks -106FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Diamondbacks have won 12 of their last 15 versus the Dodgers and should continue their domination of their NL West rivals with Trevor Cahill on the hill. The right-hander has a tidy 2.64 ERA on the season and has been really good lately, allowing just one earned run in his last two spanning 13 innings. He has also enjoyed a great deal of success against the Dodgers, going 4-0 (6-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.03 in 7 starts. Arizona has won each of his last 5 starts versus L.A. Chris Capuano struggled immensely in his first start of the season, and his team are just 2-6 in his last 8 starts versus Arizona. Take the Snakes.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 6

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Tampa Bay Rays -145FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm confident the Rays will bring home a win tonight in Game 1 of their 4-game series against the Blue Jays. Toronto has been a complete disappoint so far this season, as they are just 11-21. Part of their problems has been the lack of production from the starting rotation. Today's starter, Mark Buehrle, has simply not been effective in 2013. He's 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.515 WHIP over six starts. He's got an even worse 9.32 ERA and 1.656 WHIP on the road. Hard to expect the lefty to get it going against the Rays, who are 7-2 against left-handed starters this season.
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Tampa Bay will counter with Jeremy Hellickson. While Hellickson is a disappointing 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA and is coming off back-to-back poor starts. However, both of those two recent starts came on the road. Hellickson is a perfect 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in two starts at home.
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The Rays are 57-25 in their last 82 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 10-3 in Hellickson's last 13 home starts vs a team with a losing record.

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