Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Memphis at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to open up the series and build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 home games against against a team with a winning road record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3)

Game 705-706: Indiana at New York (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.902; New York 127.172
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 13 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Memphis at Oklahoma City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.293; Oklahoma City 130.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3); Under

NHL

Montreal at Ottawa
The Senators look to bounce back from their 3-1 loss in Game 2 and take advantage of a Canadiens team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Ottawa is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-135)

Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at NY Islanders (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.620; NY Islanders 12.042
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+145); Over

Game 3-4: Chicago at Minnesota (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.716; Minnesota 10.384
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-165); Under

Game 5-6: Montreal at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.917; Ottawa 12.751
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-135); Under

Game 7-8: Vancouver at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.135; San Jose 10.522
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+125); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Baltimore at LA Angels
The Orioles look to build on their 4-0 record in Jason Hammel's last 4 road starts. Baltimore is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100)

Game 901-902: Washington at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.326; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 15.888
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Over

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.722; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.207
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 905-906: St. Louis at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.436; Milwaukee (Estrada) 16.004
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Under

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 15.102; Cubs (Jackson) 15.464
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135); N/A

Game 909-910: Miami at Philadelphia (2:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Slowey) 14.225; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.801
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under

Game 911-912: Arizona at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.078; San Diego (Volquez) 15.915
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.087; San Francisco (Cain) 15.139
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 14.395; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.780
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 16.688; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.592
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

Game 919-920: Seattle at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 14.677; Toronto (Morrow) 15.456
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-155); Over

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.801; Kansas City (Davis) 14.922
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 923-924: Boston at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.989; Texas (Darvish) 16.538
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.249; LA Angels (Williams) 14.137
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under

Game 927-928: Detroit at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.647; Houston (Humber) 13.018
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250); Over

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.580; Colorado (Chacin) 16.275
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Over

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LEE WILLIAMS

Nationals / Pirates Over 7

These 2 Pitchers have combined to go 7-4 Over and have been shaky at best.Washington and Pittsburgh have both struggled vs left handed pitching, but we think both pitchers are reachable today.Over is a perfect 8-0 in Pittsburgh last 8 as dog.

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SCOTT DELANEY

My free NBA winner for the second round is to get a jump on the price in the Western Conference semifinal between the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, as I think the Warriors are catching a damn good number with the brand of basketball they've brought into the postseason.

I see a line of +500, as the Spurs are laying about -700 everywhere, and though I know they're motivated to keep their momentum flowing after dominating the Los Angeles Lakers, believe me when I tell you the Lakers were no challenge - as you saw in the quarterfinals. We're talking about a team that pretty much was down to its fifth and sixth guards at one point.

Such is not the case with the Warriors, who are not only led by boy-wonder Steph Curry - who in my opinion was the MVP of the first round - and coach Mark Jackson, who has done wonders for this team and has instilled a brand of confidence you don't see a lot these days.

But Jackson is old school, and he's going to know how to get to the Spurs, and will know what it's going to take to put them on their heels in San Antonio. One win at the Alamo, and the Warriors steal homecourt advantage. Then it's on to Oakland, and I don't know if the Spurs come out of Oakland with a win in this series.

I just need one road win by the Warriors, and I'm more confident in them doing so in San Antonio, than the Spurs in Oaktown.

I like the Warriors in 6!

3* GOLDEN STATE SERIES

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CRAIG DAVIS

I'm backing the Knicks today as your free play of the day.

This one, to me, is pretty simple. The Knicks are dominant at home, losing there just 10 times while the Pacers aren't that great on the road.

Shoot, until the third game vs. of the Indiana/Atlanta series, it looked as if the Pacers were going to run away with that series with the Hawks.

But then Atlanta go to host two games and it was a different story.

It wasn't until Game 5 that Indiana got back on track where they used that momentum to finally win a road game vs. a team they hadn't beaten the previous 13 times at their place.

That might have changed the outcome, but it didn't change my opinion of Indiana. I still believe they have some holes and the Knicks are the type of team that can cause them fits if they don't play up to par.

In the end, New York is deeper and better overall, and they should win this game going away.

Take the Knicks as your free play of the day.

4* NEW YORK

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BRETT ATKINS

Looking for my third-straight free-pick winner in as many days, and I roll with the Minnesota Twins to get it done over the Cleveland Indians.

I know the Tribe comes into this one riding a six-game win streak, and yesterday we saw Scott Kazmir earn his first win in three seasons, leading the Indians to a 7-3 victory over these same Twins.

But at some point in time when you have a mediocre team like the Indians finding ways to win like they are, you're going to see them stumble. Cleveland is hitting bloopers and duck snorts, it's not exactly blistering the ball or taking pitchers off their game in this series after doing so in the first four games of the series.

I admit, I was impresed with how the Indians looked against the Royals and Phillies, but I think in this division rivalry the Twins are capable are turning the tables.

Let's take a shot with the road pup here.

2* TWINS

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JEFF BENTON

Sunday's freebie is the Red Sox-Rangers to hold Under the total.

Texas looking for the sweep today, and thus far it has been the Rangers pitching that has staked them to this 2-0 weekend series lead, as Boston has come up with a whopping 1 run in their first 18 innings played this weekend in Arlington.

I do not expect too many more runs to be added today, as the Sox will have to face Yu Darvish, owner of a 5-1 record, and a 2.33 season ERA. Over Darvish's last 3 efforts, his ERA is a lowly 1.89, so expect those Boston bats to remain quiet.

Boston will send Jon Lester to the mound, and Lester is also throwing the ball well this spring, as the southpaw is off to a 4-0 start with an ERA of 3.11.

The Red Sox have played 3 straight, and 4 of their last 6 on the low side, while the Rangers have now been under in 4 straight, and 7 of their last 9 overall.

Weekend sweep of unders is complete when this one is all said and done.

Lester and Darvish to dominate. Red Sox and Rangers under once again.

3* BOSTON-TEXAS UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner is on the Houston Astros over the Detroit Tigers.

Take a moment to soak that in, and yes, I know Justin Verlander is on the mound.

But I don't really care, and in baseball, there are times you have to take a chance in games like this, looking for the right spots to grab the underdog cash.

This is purely speculation, but there's something that tells me the Tigers have this game locked up in their minds, knowing Verlander is on the bump and the Astros are, well, the Astros. There's a two-game trip to the nation's capital on the schedule after this, and I think Detroit is going to have one foot out of Houston and the other in D.C., looking past the lowly Astros.

That could be beneficial for the Astros' pitching staff. If it can limit Detroit's lineup, I think the Astros will get the 3 or 4 runs they'll need to challenge for this big underdog win. I'm taking the shot with the home underdog.

1* HOUSTON

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

BRAD WILTON

Sunday's free play winner is the Over in the Tampa Bay-Colorado interleague contest.

These teams have combined for some big runs already this weekend, as Friday's game featured 11 runs scored, while yesterday's contest saw 12 combined runs cross the plate.

Both of those games did land Over the total, and so will today's meeting.

Yes, Alex Cobb and Jhoulys Chacin sport some low ERA's, but it is hard to argue with the fact Tampa Bay is in the midst of a 7 game Over tear, while Colorado is in the midst of a 5 game Over clip.

Look for Cobb and Chacin to give up just enough to extend both team's Over runs this afternoon at Coors Field.

4* TAMPA BAY-COLORADO OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh PiratesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Washington NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nationals and Pirates put the wraps on this three-game series in the Steel City where Gio Gonzalez matches serves with Wandy Rodriguez. Gonzalez takes the mound with a sparkling 13-3 career team start mark in May, including 12-1 the last thirteen. He is also 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his career team starts against the Bucs. With that look for Rodriguez to fall to 6-13 in his last nineteen team start in May here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers -275FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is no surprise that Justin Verlander is off to another amazing start this season. In 6 starts he has 41 strikeouts, has given up a single home run and earned himself a 1.83 ERA. He has averages 6.6 innings per start and has a 3-2 record on the season.
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Verlander’s opponent today is Philip Humber for the Astros. Humber is 0-6 in his 6 starts this season and he has a 7.58 ERA. He is averaging a mere 3 innings per start at home this season with 2 strikeouts. The only bright spot for Humber on the season is the fact that he has given up only 3 home runs, but instead he has given up 44 hits in a total of 29.7 innings pitched.
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Detroit is the hot team coming into this matching winning 8 of their last 9 games. It is the opposite story for Houston as they have lost 9 of their last 10 games. The Astros are batting .247 in their last 7 games compared to .295 from the Tigers. With the matchup advantage on the mound Detroit is an easy call today.

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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals +102FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals are rolling. They have won 5 in a row overall, 6 straight on the road and 6 of their last 7 versus the Brewers. They are also 11-4 in their last 15 in Milwaukee. Look for their dominance over the Brewers to continue behind a solid effort from Jaime Garcia, who's 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA. The Cardinals are 7-3 in Garcia's last 10 starts. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada is 2-1 but has an ERA of 4.59. That number is up to 6.75 through 3 home starts. Also, Garcia has a 3.14 ERA in 12 starts versus the Brewers while Estrada has a 4.00 ERA in 3 starts versus St. Louis. Cards have the edge.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds -155

The Reds won for us as a free Play on Saturday and we are going right back to the well with them again today. The Reds are backed with another solid system. We want to play on certain road favorites the last 2 seasons that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs, if they scored 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a home dog loss by 2 or more runs that scored 4 or less runs on 4 or less hits, These road favorites are 15-3 the last 2 years and 9-1 if the total is more than 8. The Reds have M. Latos going today and he went 7 strong allowing just 2 runs in his only start here in Chicago. He has won 6 of his last 8 Road May starts and take on E. Jackson who has lost 5 of 8 home May starts and has lost his last 4 home starts overall allowing a hideous 17 run sin 15 innings. The Reds have dominated the series of late taking 13 of the last 15.

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Alex Smart

Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +128

Miami gives very little run support to its pitchers as it has scored just 84 runs in 31 games. The Marlins have scored eight runs in their starter today Slowey's six outings this season, which should not inspire a lot of confidence in a Marlins win here today. Roy Halladay the Phillies veteran starter today has looked pretty good at times this season, despite of some inconsistent performances.Halladay recorded his 200th career victory at Miami on April 14 when he gave up one run and five hits in eight innings in a 2-1 win. Im looking for a little bit more run support today in a tilt that Im betting ends in a substantial victory for the Phillies.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Jesse Schule

Miami Marlins +1½ -140

First off, congrats to all those who got in on Saturday's free winner on the Rangers, and Friday with the Pirates. If you haven't been following my free plays this year, you might want to check out the history here: 2013 Free Play History.

After losing the first two games of this series in Philly, the Fish shutout the Phillies on Saturday, winning 2-0. They will look to earn a split in the series with another win on Sunday.

Philadelphia sends Roy Halladay to the mound, and it's anybody's guess whether we will see "the good Doc" or "the bad Doc". Halladay was torched for eight runs on nine hits, including three home runs in a 14-2 loss at Cleveland his last time out. Remember Progressive Field is supposed to be kind to Pitchers, while Citizen's Bank Park certainly is not.

Several players in the Miami lineup have been successful against Halladay, including Placido Palanco, Justin Ruggiano and Donovan Solano, who are all hitting better than .300 in past meetings.

Miami will hand the ball to Kevin Slowey, who has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation this year. Slowey (0-2, 2.15 ERA) is still in search of his first win, but he has put together an impressive string of quality starts. One of those came against Philadelphia, allowing just a single run on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 2-1 loss.

He had his most impressive outing in his last start, going eight innings, allowing one run on four hits, striking out eight, but failing to get the decision in a 2-1 win over the Mets.

The price is right for a play on the Fish as a dog on the run line, facing a pitcher that has struggled most of the year.

Take Miami +1.5

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Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dodgers at GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Over is 12-4 in LA last 16 games overall. Over is 12-4 in LA last 16 games on grass. Over is 15-5-2 in SF last 22 Sunday games. Over is 8-3 in Matt Cain's last 11 Sunday starts. On the season, Matt Cain has an 6.49 ERA, 7.00 in his last 3 starts. Both starting pitchers have gone over the total in 4 of 6 games. Play LA-SF over.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue JaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Until further notice, we're not going to over-analyze things with Toronto as long as the Blue Jays give no hint of emerging from their early-season funk. Now 10-21, better than only Houston in the AL, Toronto has really had problems this month of May, outscored 25-3 the first three games since the calendar turned. Starter Brandon Morrow doesn't offer much more encouragement with his 5.29 ERA. Moreover, in this battle of 1977 expansion partners, the Mariners have been rolling over the Blue Jays lately, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings while Seattle pitchers have posted a 2.45 ERA in those games. Mariner starter Joe Saunders has won his last two starts at Rogers Centre and is off a very effective complete-game win over the O's last Monday when allowing only 4 hits in 9 IP of a 4-2 win.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco GiantsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Things just keep getting worse for the Dodgers. Injuries are an issue to be sure, but the roster just isn't constructed all that well. I also think there's a real problem in the dugout with the manager. Don Mattingly was a great player, but I honestly don't think there's a worse game manager in the majors.
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Mattingly was at it again Saturday night, with the worst faux pas in the top of the eighth of what was a tie game at the time. Lead guy gets on, AJ Ellis up next. Ellis was having a very good night with the stick and I liked his chances against lefty Jeremy Affeldt, who he's had success with in a small sample of at bats. A lefty hitter is on deck, and while Affeldt's L/R splits aren't dramatic, he's still stronger against that side. So the LAST thing Mattingly should be doing here is trying to bunt. Giving up an out to advance a runner one base in this situation is simply the wrong decision at every level. Naturally, Mattingly has Ellis bunt, and he manages to not only fail to advance the runner that's on, he bunts into a double play.
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Nevertheless, even with Mattingly doing just about everything wrong, the Dodgers can't lose 'em all, and they should have a good shot at salvaging the series finale tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been outstanding, and while this is the second time around for the lefty against the Giants, the guy is on a roll and looks like a decent dog take right now.
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The other aspect of this play is Matt Cain, who is really struggling. The issue for Cain in the long ball. His HR/FB ratio is an astounding 19.1% so far. That's amazing, and what it means is that when Cain makes a mistake, it's leaving the ball park. Cain has never fared well with the Dodgers. He's only 4-8 lifetime, including 2-6 in this park.
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Off back to back walkoff home runs, the Giants could actually be a little flat here and if ever a team needed win a game, it's tonight for the Dodgers. With Ryu in such good form and getting a decent price, I'll swallow hard and give LA a roll tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 5

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

It's tough to learn how to pitch in Coors Field but Jhoulys Chacin knows how, with a 3-0 record and a sizzling 1.46 ERA. He has walked only 6 batters in 24+ innings and Tampa Bay has never faced him. The Rays have offensive problems, 19th in runs scored, 20th in OBP and they are 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rockies are 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and the Rays are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. Play the Rockies.

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Bob Balfe

Grizzles +3 over Thunder

The Thunder did enough to get by Houston, but it was not pretty. Its clear this team is not the same without Westbrook and Durant was two more losses away for being on the hot seat for the rest of his career until he won a championship. This is a totally different matchup. Memphis is not going to hit the 3's or score like Houston, but OKC is not going to drive into the lane and get easy buckets like they could against the Rockets. Memphis already beat this team twice this year and I think the Grizzles are a dangerous team. They look like they are ready to make a run at the finals. This should be a pretty low scoring game and that always favors the underdog. I don't think Oklahoma City can beat a good defense without Westbrook. Take Memphis.


Rangers -145 over Red Sox

We have two great pitchers on the mound today, but watching Darvish this year has been amazing as it seems like he strikes out every batter he faces. Boston is slumping with the bats in this series and I just don't see where it gets easier for them against Darvish today. This teams starting rotation is really getting a name for themselves and are going to be right in the hunt in October if they stay healthy. Take the Rangers.

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