MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, April 17

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, April 17

MLB Weather Watch
By Covers.com

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (n/a, -175, 7.5)
The wind will blow in from left field at 14 mph with temperatures in the low-60s.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins (-120, n/a 8.5)
An 87 percent chance of precipitation as snow turns into rain by first pitch. The wind will blow in from center field at 11 mph.

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (n/a, +125, 10.5)
The winds will blow in from center field at 13 mph. Snow is also in the forecast, with a 71 percent chance of rain.

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (n/a, +135, 8)
Chance of thunderstorms in the forecast with only a 25 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (110, n/a, 8)

There's a 27 percent chance of rain in the forecast in Baltimore.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+110, -130, 7.5)

A chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast, with a 15 percent chance of rain.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130, +145, 8.5)
A 33 percent chance of rain in Cincinnati with a chance of thunderstorms.

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs (+110, n/a, n/a)
Winds will blow in from right field at 12 mph and there's an 89 percent chance of rain.


MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, April 17

Cliff Notes - Wednesday
By Dave Essler

With a reasonable amount of games played now, we're starting to see some viable numbers we can use. I always look at bullpen usage/stats, and there's some interesting ones. Of course, looking at much of anything tomorrow may be out of the question. Hard to say.

From the 7th inning on, the DODGERS have a team WHIP of 0.59. In stark contrast, the ANGELS team WHIP from the 7th inning on in 1.91. Now, I knew they had issues, but not THAT many. The Angels team ERA during that period is 9.82 and the opposing teams are hitting .340 (not a misprint) in that same time frame. Somewhat surprisingly, the Brewers haven't given up a home run after the 7th inning. The Cardinals are hitting .438 with RISP and two outs (padded that one at our expense last night). The other end of that spectrum---the Dodgers, hitting .172 with RISP and two outs, followed closely by Washington (.179).

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Miller is indeed the real deal, but no longer under the radar, at least from an odds standpoint. He COULD be over valued here, as he is only 22 and threw 113 pitches or so in that one-hitter (7 innings) he tossed last week. That could be especially true if the Cardinals don't get some innings from Westbrook on Tuesday, because the pen hasn't been their best friend. I've been on A.J.'s bandwagon early, but if the past is an indicator of the future, the Cardinal hit him reasonably well. Caveat to that is that Burnett's best month is typically April, before he starts thinking too much. Have to think he's at least  pumped to not let the kid show him up, so perhaps the under here.

Phillies at Reds: If I take the Reds, Phillips will either rest, or hit into three double plays. If I take the Phillies, he will go yard at a very inopportune time. Always look at overs w/Leake pitching, as he's like another stick. Reds always one of the better hitting teams against LHP, but Lannan is one of those junk pitchers that can induce a shitload of groundball outs. Leake's been hit pretty hard in two starts and by the Phillies starters in limited at bats, but enough to tell me it's the Phillies or nothing.

Washington at Miami: Waiting for a Fish total to be .5 run more than the oppositions team total. With the Nationals not hitting in key situations and the Fish just not being able to hit, have to think under, again. However, Nolaso will keep the ball up at times. Detwiler has shut down the Reds and the Braves, so barring a complete mental collapse should do the same thing here. The problem with taking the under here is the Nationals bullpen, and the fact that that's when (late) the Fish seem to find ways to score. Nolasco's fourth start, and he's owned all the Marlins but Harper. Pitch around him if he can, and in fact this does have the look of another 3-1 game to me.

Giants at Brewers: Well, it's getting to the point where the Giants pen might have to be reconsidered and not back blindly, at least by me. Their back end has an ERA of 5.21 away from the big AT & T park. Vogelsong's been crushed, twice, and once by the Cubs. So, conventional wisdom says it happens again, but take away Ramirez's 18 at bats against him, and there's not a lot of familiarity with the Brewers. Enough that it'd be hard to fade him blindly. Lohse has been brilliant (WHIP under .90) and doesn't have enough exposure to the Giants sticks for me to even think about taking San Francisco, and the price may be too high on Milwaukee to play the ML. This looks like 7-2 Brewers to me.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Moore but be something special to have a team hitting .205 behind him and be a road favorite. I guess that would mean to take the under. Tillman pitched reasonably well in Boston last week, but we can't disregard his first start, at home, against the Twins. Longoria's three homers in twelve at bats can't be ignored. He (Tillman) could be a bit motivated, remembering the last game he pitched in 2012 when the Rays hit three jacks in five innings in Tampa Bay. There is SOME evidence that Baltimore could get the fourth hit Moore will have given up this year.

LA Angels at Minnesota: Tough to fathom a team with an ERA from the 7th inning on with an ERA over 9.00 with their fifth starter on the mound being favored on the road, and against a pitcher they've never seen. Now, Worley isn't a stud, but he's not the pitcher the Mets blew up, either. And just two years ago the Phillies were 20-5 in games he pitched. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, as is the fact that the Twins weren't scoring. They do have the potential to put up runs. If it weren't going to be terrible weather, I'd take the over whatever it is. I simply could not lay -125 on Tommy Hanson.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, April 17

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers   
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- It was 2011 when Justin Masterson made his major breakthrough in the big leagues and everyone around the league started to take notice of his stuff. He started off the season by winning his first five starts, and while he got a no-decision in the sixth, the Indians got the victory. Up until that point, Masterson had a 16-28 career record through his first three years between the Red Sox and Indians.

As May ‘11 rolled around, Masterson quickly became a pitcher bettors loved to go against, as the Indians lost seven of his next eight starts. He wouldn't regain his footing until late July, and the Indians closed out the season by winning nine of his final 12 starts. His record for the up-and-down 2011 season was 12-10, with a very respectable 3.21 ERA.

In 2012, he took his lumps early in the season. The Indians lost nine of his first 13 starts, and he finished 11-15 on the year. He closed out the season with a strong outing that dropped his ERA from 5.03 to 4.93.

So despite Masterson's fantastic start to 2013 – he’s won his first three starts and allowed only one run – there still is a bit of skepticism from many oddsmakers and bettors. This is the why the Indians have such a short price of -135 today at home against the Red Sox, who send jack-of-all-trades pitcher Alfredo Aceves to the mound.

Another reason for the low price is that the Red Sox (9-4) are playing outstanding baseball and are currently on a four-game winning steak, while you never quite know what you're going to get out of the Cleveland’s lineup on a day-to-day basis. The Indians are 5-7, and it seems the only time they win is when Mark Reynolds hits a home run – three of his five home runs have come in wins.

We think Masterson has a couple more good starts in him before he shows signs of his past slumps. Or – since he's in the prime of his career and has learned what not to do in certain situations – perhaps he keeps the roll going all season. We'll be following his story to see how it unfolds, but for today, we like him to get the Indians a win.

Low scoring game expected at Dodger Stadium

San Diego’s Tyson Ross (0-1, 4.82 ERA) has had the misfortune of starting two games against the Rockies, one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball. He held his own by allowing only three runs in each, but the Padres still lost both games.

The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound, and he doesn't figure to give up more than one run – he’s allowed only three runs in three starts. The Dodgers are on a three-game slide, and have gone OVER the total in their last two home games against the Padres, but it wasn’t the Dodgers bats that helped those games get OVER. During their losing streak, L.A. has scored only six runs.

The total for tonight’s Padres-Dodgers game is posted at 6.5, but we don't expect it to come close to that. Look for a 3-1 type of game, and based on the way the Dodgers are hitting – or not hitting – there might even be a little value with the Padres at +230.

Wednesday's plays:

Indians (Masterson) -135 vs. Red Sox

Padres/Dodgers UNDER 6.5 (-110)

Season to date record: 29-15 (+1625)

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