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MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 15

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 15

MLB Weather Watch

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (+123, -133, 8.5)
Winds will blow out to left field at 10 mph. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-50s.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins (-113, +104, 8.5)
Winds will blow out to center field at 13 mph with expected temperatures in the mid-30s.

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (+120, -130, 10.5)
Snow is in the forecast in Denver with temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds will blow in from center field at 11 mph. The Rockies were 3-10 in 2012 when the wind blew in from center.

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (+156, -170, 7.5)
Winds will blow from left to right at 14 mph. The Athletics and the over were 4-1 in 2012 at Coliseum when the wind blew from left to right.

MLB Baseball Weather Analyzer

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 15

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

Phillies on a 4-2 stretch will be feeling pretty good about their chances when they hook Cliff Lee (2-0, 1.08 ERA) up against Bronson Arroyo (1-1, 5.25 ERA). Lee the rotation's bright spot is 6-2 with 3.91 ERA in 11 career starts vs Cinci tossing for Philadelphia, Seattle and Cleveland (7-4 TSR). On the other side, Reds ridding an 0-5 skid will be rather anxious as Arroyo is 2-7 with 6.55 ERA over 11 starts vs Phillie (3-8 TSR). Phillies 11-4 L2Y's vs Reds including 6-1 at Great American Ball Park are worth a second look.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 15

Cliff Notes - Monday Baseball
By Dave Essler

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Pirates have been home while the Cardinals have been fighting the Brewers. Have to wonder if there isn't some sort of mental letdown for St. Louis. McDonald has certainly been someone we could get behind in the past. Freese and Beltran rested Sunday. McDonald owned the Cubs and was owned by the D-Backs (in Arizona). Truth is somewhere in the middle. But, he's pitched well against most all the Cardinals, save Molina, whose due a day off. He's caught about 6-8 straight games. Lynn also crushed by the D-Backs and was lights-out against the Reds, and at a time when the Reds were hitting. Given the struggles of the Cardinals bullpen, and the non-struggles of the Pirates relievers, you certainly have to lean Pittsburgh, I would think. As I type the Reds are out early, so we'll wait and see what happens like we always do.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: I suppose if I'd been paying attention I'd have faded the Phillies in their last game against the Fish, strictly because of THIS game. Well, maybe. That games' just started, but it would have been a reason to think about it. A little hard to fathom the Reds being home dogs to many people, especially the perceived light hitting Phillies. For that reason (sounds like Shark Tank) I would have to think seriously about taking Philadelphia. Reds coming home from Pittsburgh would be yet another reason. Arroyo hasn't been walking many, but he's been very hittable. He's always been much tougher on RHH, and last I check Howard, Utley, and at least Brown hit from the left side of the plate. Votto's about the only Red that's had REAL success against Lee, so I do in fact lean Phillies and probably under here, although I have not checked weather and Sunday's impacts aren't known yet.

Washington at Miami: Similar situation here in that the Nationals have a big division series against Atlanta, and don't fare well in, I might have to think there's some emotional discomfort in their clubhouse. We'll see. Simply not laying -185 on the road, and could consider the RL either way. One of these days Miami will score, but still have only scored more than three runs once in there eleven games, Sunday pending. LeBlanc has actually pitched fairly well, and these two teams already faced each other in the season opening series. If LeBlanc is the one to make adjustments, who knows. These two pitchers faced each other in that series as well, in a game won by the Nats (duh) 6-1. He's been nothing short of consistent, but in what is probably a low scoring game (again) I could make the case fairly easily for the Fish RL.

Mets at Rockies: Colorado in a first game back after being in San Diego (nice weather) and it's supposed to be chilly, rainy, and wind blowing in hard in Colorado on Monday. Clearly the Mets should think this is summer after being in Minnesota on Sunday, and having a game "wintered out". Hence, they are also rested. Gee pitched well against the Padres but was simply hammered in Philadelphia his last start. Rockies really haven't seen enough of him to say one way or the other. Nicasio's first home start, and he's either walked the park or been hit when he does throw strikes in his first two games at Milwaukee and the Giants. The Mets have never seen Nicasio at all, so even though it's a tough spot for the Rockies, perhaps a first five inning bet. Doubt they're worth -135 against a rested team, and can't quite see 10.5 runs happening, given the weather.

San Diego at Dodgers:
Los Angeles only averaging a little over three runs a game, and since the first homestand their bullpen has been simply awful. Only Billingsley's second start, and the first one was also against these Padres, a team that's done very little against him over the years. It is the Dodgers flying back from Arizona and playing the next night, which is always at least a yellow flag. Stults was lit up by the Dodgers in Petco last week, and inasmuch as I like to find a way to take the Padres, I probably can't. I suppose it's possible that we could consider the RL at -135, which I suspect might be more expensive later. Hard to say, but certainly not enough value at +115 for me to take the Dodgers RL either. If anything, I might wait til the total hits 7.5, if it does, and take the obligatory under in Dodger Stadium at night.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, April 15

MLB Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers

The Reds are coming off a six-game road trip during which they lost their final five games to drop their record to 5-7. Losing two at St. Louis isn’t that big of a deal because the Cardinals are loaded with solid hitting and good starting pitching, but getting swept at Pittsburgh is the one that has to sting, especially the way Sunday’s game turned out. The Reds had built a 5-0 lead through six innings, and the Bucs proceeded to put 10 runs on the board in the next two innings.

The big question Monday for the Reds is whether they can use that type of loss for motivation in today’s home game against the Phillies -- or whether it’s more indicative of things to come, especially for the bullpen. The Reds bullpen now has a 2-5 record -- the most losses by a 'pen in the majors -- and has blown two of their four save opportunities.

We think the Reds' slide will continue today, not necessarily because of the streak itself, but because of the opposing pitcher. Cliff Lee (2-0, 1.08 ERA) takes the mound for the Phillies and appears to be on one of his rolls. When he gets started, those rolls usually last for five to six games in a row. Another factor in siding with Lee today is that he hasn’t lost a decision to the Reds since 2008. In 16.2 innings this season, Lee has struck out 14 and hasn’t walked anyone.

Of the nine games today, Lee and the Phillies (-119) looks to be the best play on the board. Another game we gave serious consideration to today was Joe Blanton and the Angels at Minnesota. The Angels finally got a win on Saturday, and it came in dramatic fashion in the bottom of the ninth, which could ignite what was a somber clubhouse. The Twins are on a five-game losing streak, and the -111 price against Kevin Correia today looks fairly cheap.

The surprising Rockies (8-4) have won all three of their home games and face the Mets’ Dillon Gee (0-2, 7.71 ERA), who got rocked for seven runs in three innings of work at Philadelphia in his last start. The Mets have scored the second-most runs in baseball (69) and also rank second in on-base percentage (.349). The combination of Gee and the Mets’ hot hitters should produce more than 10 runs today.

Today’s play:

Phillies (Lee) -119 at Reds

Season to date record: 29-11 (+2079)

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