Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 7

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 7

John Ryan

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

The simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-14 mark for 69% winners and has made 22.6 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (WASHINGTON) and is a top-level team (>= 62%) playing a good team (54% to 62%), in April games. Here is a second system that has gone 62-31 for 67% winners and has made 31.3 units per one unit wagered since 2007. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) and is an excellent fielding team averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season and after a one run loss. The Reds hammered Washington in Game 1, 15-0, and marked my third straight 25* winner for the season. Yesterday, Washington eked out an extra inning one-run win after leading in the game and blowing a save opportunity. Washington is just 6-27 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997. Moreover, the Reds are 19-3 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a loss to current opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is still early, but I believe one thing is a near certainty. Washington will struggle to find an offense, especially against elite starters like Cueto. In five games, they are batting an anemic .222 with a .297 OBP. The Reds will have a strong offense and are averaging 6.4 RPG through 5 games. Moreover, the Nationals bullpen, who did not allow an ER to the Miami Marlins, has been hammered by the Reds. Strasburg did not allow a run, but only struck out three batters in his seven inning 1-0 win over the Marlins. Cueto allowed three hits and one ER, but struck out nine Angels in a 1-0 no decision team loss. I fully expect Cueto to strikeout at least 10 batters today and with Strasburg still mysteriously on an 80 pitch limit, the Nast will again struggle in the bullpen. Take the Reds.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 7

Joe Gavazzi

Arizona +105

Multiple Milwaukee injuries to Braun Ramirez and Hart have left Milwaukee Brewers a shell of its former self. And the bullpen has shown no signs of improvement since their horrendous season last year. Even today's starting pitcher Gallardo showed kinks in his armor when he allowed 3 runs in 10 hits in 5 IP in Milwaukee's only victory of the year, 5-4 vs. Colorado. The Brew Crew has now lost 4 straight. Arizona counters with Kennedy who pitched a very solid opener allowing 2 runs on 5 hits in 7 IP of a 6-2 victory vs. St. Louis. Lone detractor is Gallardo's history against the DBacks which finds him 7-0 with a 1.09 ERA. But current form dictates otherwise giving us an opportunity to back Kennedy as underdog. In 7 starts against Milwaukee, he has a solid 3.38 ERA.

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