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WGC-Cadillac Championship Betting News and Notes

WGC-Cadillac Championship Betting News and Notes

WGC-Cadillac Championship Betting Preview
By Alf Musketa

This week there are two golf tournaments that the sportsbooks will post odds, matchups and props: WGC Cadillac Championship and the Puerto Rico Open. What do these events have in common? Donald Trump owns both golf courses; TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral and the Trump International Golf Club. Trump courses are generally wide open, large greens, lush fairways, and in tip top shape, but he has yet to get his hands on Doral. A major renovation is planned after this event. If we find a matchup or long shot that we like for the Puerto Rico Open, I'll post it, but for the most part our efforts this week will be focused on the WGC event that has a stellar field of 49 of the Top 50 players in the World Rankings.
The Blue Monster track will play to a par 72, measuring 7,334 yards. It favors ball strikers, and with subtle bends in the fairways, those players who can work the tee ball both ways left and right have an advantage. The Miami area weather is your typical southern Florida forecast with potential of an afternoon shower each day and windy. Last week in Palm Beach Gardens, FL, for the Honda Classic the usual wind gusts did not show up until after the cut on the weekend. Therefore we are going to pay close attention in our handicapping on players that fared well in the final two rounds. Englishman David Lynn was tops in the entire field firing his last two rounds of 68, 69; Charl Schwartzel 71, 69; Keegan Bradley 70, 71; and Geoff Ogilvy 70, 69 were the best to tame PGA National under the tough conditions.
The No.1 player in the World, Rory McIlroy, is still the talk of the golfing scene. After withdrawing from the Honda Classic last week complaining about his mental state and a wisdom tooth ache, the truth is he has not played enough, been sharp enough, and certainly not made any strides with his new Nike equipment to date. However, baring another withdrawal, I predict he'll have his best tournament of 2013, because there is no cut this week. He'll be able to put four much needed tournament rounds under his belt, though we may find a matchup or two to bet against him. Last week oddsmakers had McIlroy matched with Tiger Woods (-155) and Schwartzel (-125). Both were easy winners as McIlroy withdrew in the second round. Remember matchup betting rules: the winner is the player who has completed the most holes. If both players play the same amount of holes only then does their total score come into play.
Ernie Els and Woods are the only two players that have won this event more than once. Woods has won six times under different tournament sponsors WGC Cadillac - CA - American Express, but only once at Doral; same as Els. I'm not in any hurry to back Woods in matchups with the putting problems that are plaguing him. Last week he had 33 putts in his final round and a score of 74. A year ago, he shot a final round of 62! Els has mentioned in his blog that he is looking forward to windy conditions and just needs to stop burning the edges of his putts. We had Els +100 versus Graeme McDowell in a tournament (TNT) matchup and would bet that one again if the forecast is right.

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Re: WGC-Cadillac Championship Betting News and Notes

WGC-Cadillac Championship Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo

Michael Thompson picked up his first PGA Tour victory with a win at the Honda Classic by two shots over Geoff Ogilvy. He became the ninth American to win this year through the first nine events. The tour continues on the Florida swing, heading to Doral this week for the WGC-Cadillac Championship. This is the second event in three weeks that we have a World Golf Championship event, thus a star-studded field with close to the entire top 50 in the world playing.

The Doral-Blue Monster Course is an interesting one. It has the reputation of causing havoc and on occasion, it does that to some but a lot of that is due to the intimidating finishing hole. Last year, the 18th hole played as the most difficult finishing hole of all non-Majors and two years ago was the second hardest hole overall, averaging 4.31 for the week. Overall though, the course can be tamed. Hitting fairways is difficult which makes it hard to hit greens but because of the size of the putting surfaces, scrambling is easy.

This is the ninth year that the WGC event has been played here but Doral has been a host course since 1962 which is one of the longest runs on tour. There are only 65 players in the field this week which means there is no cut on the weekend and players are more likely to take chances they would not normally do. Weather should not be a factor this week with the exception of some possible wind which is par for the course down here this time of the year anyway.

For those not qualifying at Doral, many will be teeing it up in Rio Grande at the Puerto Rico Open but for our segment this week, we will be sticking with the WGC event.

Tiger Woods (+600) is the overwhelming favorite this week. He has won three times on this track but the last came in 2007 when he took a four-shot lead into Sunday and won by two shots. His recent play has been spotty as after winning the Farmers, he was ousted in the first round of the Accenture Match Play and then finished a disappointing 37th last week at PGA National. No value with Woods this week.

Charl Schwartzel (+1,800) is one of five players which are sitting as second leading favorites between 18 and 20 to 1. He is coming off a top ten last week at the Honda and he has been playing so good of late that it was his lowest finish in his last eight medal play events. His track record here solidifies another great finish is looming as he is coming off a T4 last year, a T24 in 2011 and a solo second in 2010.

Luke Donald (+2,000) is another of the fivesome mentioned and his success at Doral should continue. He is one of the best scramblers on tour and while he hasn't played enough to qualify this year, he finished fifth in scrambling a year ago. He was in contention at the Northern Trust Open until a Sunday 75 pushed him into a T16 finish. He backed up a T6 at Doral in 2011 with a T6 last year.

Nick Watney (+3,000) got off to a great start this year with a T13 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and a T4 at the Farmers and while he has stumbled some since then, this could be his return to the winners circle. He won this event in 2011 and followed that up with a T17 last year. His first ever start here as a WGC event was 2009 which resulted in a solo second so he is undoubtedly comfortable at this track.

Geoff Ogilvy (+4,000) is a live underdog as the corner may have finally been turned. Thanks to his solo second last week, he moved from 79th to 47th in the OWGR to qualify this week after missing the Accenture. He has won three WGC events, the match play twice and this event back in 2008. He missed four straight cuts on the west coast and his putting was to blame but is better now. He was sixth on tour in scrambling in 2012.

With a small field and everyone making the cut, we get good value at this end and that is the case with Martin Kaymer (+5,000). It wasn't that long ago that he was the top ranked player in the world but with his short game faltering, he fell to 28th in the OWGR. He claims it is back though and we saw glimpses at the Accenture and early last week at the Honda. He has finished in the top 25 here the last three years including a T3 in 2010.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the WGC-Cadillac Championship - All for 1 Unit

Charl Schwartzel (+1,800)
Luke Donald (+2,000)
Nick Watney (+3,000)
Geoff Ogilvy (+4,000)
Martin Kaymer (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 9 events: +18.16 Units

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