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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

College Knowledge

-- Iowa won its last five home games, last four by 9+ points; Hawkeyes are 2-1 as home favorites- they ended seven-game series losing streak by beating Illinois 64-61 LY in Big Dozen tourney. Illini is 3-4 on road, but won last three visits here, by 11-8-10 points- they're 2-2 as road dogs. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 14-8 vs spread. Illini is 13-3 against Iowa since 2004, 5-2 in games played here.
-- Marquette won its last six games with Rutgers, winning by 5-8 in last two visits here; Eagles are 3-4 on Big East road, winning by 7-23-21, as favorites covered their last five road trips. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 9-16 vs spread. Rutgers lost four in row, 10 of last 11 games; they're 0-7 vs spread last seven home games, 1-4 as home dogs, losing home games by 10-12-20-6-4 points (3-5 SU).
-- St John's (+6.5) had 15 offensive boards, upset Notre Dame 67-63 Jan 15, in game where both teams shot 50%+ inside arc, combined 4-26 on arc. Home team won nine of last ten series games; Johnnies lost four of last five visits here, losing by 1-13-39-15 points. Big East home faves of 8+ points are 19-22 vs spread. Irish are 2-5 as Big East home favorites, winning last four home games by 5-3-4-21 points.
-- Home side won 10 of last 11 BC-Clemson games; Eagles lost last four visits here, by 20-22-16-8 points. Tigers (-1) lost 75-68 in Boston Feb 2, game that started them on current 1-7 skid; BC shot 60% inside arc, 11-20 outside it. Quick turnaround for BC after it upset Virginia in last game Sunday; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five road games. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-12 vs spread. Clemson is 2-3 as home favorites; they lost last four games, scoring 55.5 ppg.

-- Home side won last seven Southern Miss-Marshall games; Eagles lost last three visits here, by 13-30-4 points- they crushed Marshall 102-46 (-9) in first meeting Jan 23, making 11-20 from arc in game that USM led 53-17 at half. C-USA home underdogs of more than 5 points are 2-7 vs spread. Marshall lost five of last seven games, but is 4-3 at home, with losses by 11-4-12. Eagles are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine games.
-- Ohio (-14) made 9-18 from arc, forced 17 turnovers (+7) in 86-68 win over Buffalo Jan 9; Bobcats are 4-2 as MAC road favorites, winning on foreign soil by 2-12-1-27-19-13 points. Buffalo won its last five MAC games, covering last four; they're 4-2 as MAC dogs, 2-0 at home. MAC underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-12 vs spread. Ohio beat Buffalo last five meetings, winning last two visits here, by 7-11 points.
-- Home side won last 10 Ball State-Western Michigan games; Cardinals lost last seven visits here, by 9-13-4-2-15-17-17 points. Ball (+5) upset Western 65-62 at home Feb 9, game that started Cardinals on current 5-1 run. Ball shot 60% inside arc, forced 20 Bronco turnovers (+8). MAC home favorites of 9+ points are 6-9 vs spread. Western is 3-2 as MAC home favorite, winning by 23-4-11-6-8 points.
-- Arkansas (+1) outscored Missouri 7-1 in final 0:34 to beat Tigers by hoop Feb 16, in Anderson's meeting vs old team; now his Hogs (1-7 on SEC road, 2-3 as road dog) visit Columbia, where Mizzou is 8-0 SU, 4-3 as home favorite, with six wins by 13+ points. Tigers were -6 in TOs in first meeting, 2-14 from arc, but were 23-31 on foul line. SEC single digit home favorites are 19-21 against the spread.
-- Memphis beat UTEP in last two C-USA tourneys, but lost last three to Miners in regular season; five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. UTEP is 6-1 at home in league, losing to Tulsa by 4; they covered six of last seven games as a dog. C-USA home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-2 vs spread. Memphis is 4-2 as C-USA road fave, winning road games by 16-26-7-8-13-12-9 points.

-- Ole Miss' brutal loss at Miss State Saturday makes them 4-6 in last 10 games; Rebels are 4-3-1 as home favorite, winning last four here, by 18-10-33-9 points. Home side won 10 of last 12 Alabama-Ole Miss games; Crimson Tide lost last three visits here, by 7-5-9 points. Bama lost three of last four road games, losing by 12-3-12; they're 1-2 as SEC road dogs. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-10 vs spread.
-- Indiana (+1) shot 62% inside arc, won 81-68 at Ohio State Feb 10, its second win in last nine series games. Buckeyes lost here 74-60 LY, after winning previous three visits, by 12-17-18 points. OSU is 4-4 on road in league, losing by 19-3-2-2 (1-2 as road dogs). Big Dozen home favorites of 8+ points are 16-18 vs spread. Indiana won five of last six, is 3-5 as a Big Dozen home favorite, winning at home by 7-23-5-8-29-28-13.
-- Providence won six of last seven games after 2-7 conference start; PC (+6) won 67-55 at Seton Hall Jan 13, ending 5-game series skid. Pirates won four of last five visits here, but they've lost nine of last ten games, are 5-3 as Big East road dogs, losing away games by 19-7-4-22-10-2-18 points. Big East home favorites of 8+ points are 19-22 vs spread. Friars won their last three home games, by 4-17-3 (2-2 as HF).
-- Home side won four of last five Boise-UNLV games; Broncos lost by 3-17 points in last two visits here. Rebels (-3) lost 77-72 in Boise Feb 2, making 8-24 on arc (shot 63% inside it). MWC home favorites of 8 or less points are 17-8 vs spread. UNLV is 2-4 as home favorite, winning at home by 5-12-12-9-2-2 points. Boise won its last four games, are 7-1 vs spread in last eight- they're 3-2 vs spread as a MWC underdog.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

Tuesday's Top 25 NCBB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Tuesday’s ranked college basketball games:

St. John’s at (24) Notre Dame (-9.5)

St. John’s could use a strong road win to impress the NCAA tournament selection committee. The Red Storm did not do themselves any favors with a loss at Providence on Saturday and have dropped four of their last five games. Coach Steve Lavin suspended leading scorer D’Angelo Harrison for the remainder of the season Friday, a move that will be taken into account by the selection committee. The Fighting Irish are close to a lock for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament but could use wins over St. John’s and at Louisville in their final two regular season tests to really secure their fate. The Red Storm are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Virginia Tech at (4) Duke (-20)

Blue Devils F Ryan Kelly scored a career-high 36 points as Duke defeated first-place Miami on Saturday in a stunning performance. He had missed the previous 13 games with a foot injury. Virginia Tech beat Clemson on Saturday for its second win in three games. The Hokies had lost nine straight games prior to recent victories over Florida State and Clemson and reside in last place in the 12-team conference. Virginia Tech was routed at home by the Blue Devils 88-56 on Feb. 21. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.

(17) Marquette at Rutgers (+5.5)

Marquette has been unbeatable at home, but the Golden Eagles will have to win on the road if they hope to have a shot at winning the Big East Conference regular-season championship. Marquette is tied for second place with Louisville - one game behind Georgetown - with two to play. Rutgers will be holding Senior Night as it attempts to reverse a skid that has seen the team drop four straight and 10 of 11 games. The Scarlet Knights' drought continued with a 64-51 defeat at Big East leader Georgetown on Saturday. Rutgers' only win in the last 11 games was a two-point decision at home over Seton Hall, although each of its last four losses prior to Saturday was by eight points or fewer. Marquette has won the past six meetings with the Scarlet Knights and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

TCU at (10) Kansas State (-21.5)

Kansas State has made itself a lock for the NCAA tournament with wins in five straight games and nine of its last 10. The 10th-ranked Wildcats will be trying to keep their hopes of a regular-season Big 12 title alive when they host lowly Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs made their season with a shocking 62-55 triumph over Kansas back on Feb. 6, but have dropped seven straight since then and squandered their only chance to stay out of the Big 12 basement by falling at Texas Tech on Saturday. The Wildcats won at TCU 67-54 on Jan. 16, but will have to be careful not to overlook the Horned Frogs with a battle at Oklahoma State coming up on Saturday. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.

(13) Ohio State at (2) Indiana (-8.5)

Indiana attempts to clinch the Big Ten regular-season title when the Hoosiers host Ohio State. The Hoosiers have a two-game lead over four other programs – including the Buckeyes – entering play in the final week. Ohio State has won three straight games but suffered an 81-68 home loss to the Hoosiers on Feb. 10. Indiana’s victory last month was just its second in the last nine meetings with Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

(20) Memphis at Texas El-Paso (+4)

One game removed from clinching the Conference USA regular-season title, Memphis will try to remain unbeaten in league play when it travels to Texas El-Paso. The Miners will be returning home after playing three of four on the road, where they have struggled this season. In conference play, they've gone 3-4 away from the Don Haskins Center and 6-1 inside its confines. A win on senior night would help wrap up a first-round bye for the Miners in next week's Conference USA Tournament. The Miners have held opponents to below 40-percent shooting for five straight games and are 4-0-1 ATS in that span.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

Games to Watch
By David Schwab

No. 14 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers

The Buckeyes come into this Big Ten showdown with three-straight wins including an impressive 68-60 victory over then-No.4 Michigan State on Feb. 24 as 3½-point home favorites. They were hammered by Indiana 81-68 as one-point home favorites earlier this season as part of an 11-5 SU record in conference play. Ohio State is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games and 14-11-1 ATS overall. It is 4-4-1 ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed UNDER in its last three games after going OVER in its previous four.

Despite a crushing 77-73 loss to Minnesota last Tuesday, Indiana has already clinched a share of this season’s Big Ten regular season title and can win it outright with a victory in this game and in this upcoming Sunday’s season finale against No.4 Michigan. The Hoosiers were 4½-point road favorites in the last week’s loss, which was just their fourth SU setback this season against 25 wins. They are 15-12 ATS overall and 10-6 ATS at home. The total went OVER the 139 ½-point line against the Golden Gophers, but it has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games. Indiana remains the second-highest scoring team in the nation with an average of 81.9 points a game.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Ohio State at Indiana

Indiana (25-4, 15-12 ATS) have a shot at sweeping the season series against Ohio State (21-7, 14-11-1 ATS) when the two teams square off on Assembly Hall hardwood Tuesday. Hoosiers with a quad of double digit scorers lead by Cody Zeller (16.5) having little trouble putting the ball through the hoop average a nation second-best 81.9 points/game on an impressive 49.4% from the field. Defensively, Hoosiers allow opponents 61.8 PPG on 38.4% from the floor. Hoosiers are 17-1 (10-7 ATS) on home court this season including 7-1 (3-5 ATS) hosting Big 10 rivals. Well, to note Hoosiers have covered 4 of it's last 5 conference games at home. Buckeyes, with just a pair in double-digits net 70.4 points/game shooting 45.3% while allowing foes to hit 39.6% scoring 58.9 per/contest. Buckeyes are 11-5 (8-8 ATS) in the conference, 4-4 (3-4-1 ATS) as a visitor in Big 10. Tough venue for any team but Buckeyes solid on the defensive end makes them worth a second look as an expected 8 to 8.5 point underdog. Keep in mind, Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings, 5-1 ATS last 6 encounters in Indiana.

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Re: College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 5

Tuesday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler

Illinois at Iowa: According to the latest ESPN projected brackets, Illinois is technically in while Iowa is not. I'm not sure I agree with that logic, given that it appears to me based on the home wins over a fading Ohio State team as well as the Hoosiers. Yes, that was a marquee win, but enough to qualify them for the Dance, I would question that. Of course that leaves Iowa out and perhaps a little cranky, especially seeing as how Illinois has to date played the tenth worst SOS in the Big Ten. Iowa's two conference losses were to Indiana and Michigan State, both by four points or less. With that in mind and given that the Illini defense has struggle a bit in conference play, we like Iowa to get this done.

Ohio State at Indiana: Ohio State is a projected #5 seed, and if Linardi's bracket is anything close to correct, Belmont can beat them. It's a but surprising given that OSU really doesn't have any bad losses, and if they can pull something off here can perhaps improves their stock. With that in mind and as tough as it is to fade Indiana, this may be a spot. If Wisconsin beat them at home, and Wisconsin lost outright to Purdue on Sunday, then OSU's task may not be as monumental as it appears on the surface. They've (OSU) got Illinois to end the regular season at home, while this IS Indiana's last home game, which always makes it tough, even though they travel to Michigan. There may be an opportunity for a 1H bet on Indiana here, and once the crowd calms down and the play without the emotion they'll start with, take OSU 2H. Of course it depends on how things stack up, but that's a real option. Since Indiana has already beaten the Buckeyes in Columbus, that could serve as even more motivation for OSU to weather the early storm. Either way, I simply won't lay the points with the Hoosiers.

Boise State at UNLV: So, since the Rebels went and destroyed Nevada on the road, are they now "back" and "bettable" at home, or is this another case where they'll simply be over valued. Boise is "out" right now, but a win here and win at home against a suddenly surging SDSU team might have people reconsidering. I have to wonder if UNLV isn't looking more towards the Conference Tournament (which is at home for them) given that they're a projected #5 seed. And of course I'd feel much better about backing Boise if the hadn't beaten UNLV earlier this season. Boise can certainly score with the Rebels, but they're a bit undersized and just can't play enough defense for me to back. If UNLV wins this, there's a strong likelihood that these two might well meet again in the first round of the MWC Tournament, actually. We usually know what we're going to get from Boise, so it all depends on which Rebel team shows up, and I would defer to those closer to the situation than me.

Alabama at Mississippi: So since the Tide covered and gave a finally healthy UF team a game, are THEY now in a spot where they're a bit more public, especially given that Mississippi had a terrible loss over the weekend. Remember, it's still a road conference game, and for Conference seedings, this game has huge implications. Obviously Mississippi's last home game, and they've still only lost to Kentucky at home this season, when Kentucky had Noel, and it was a winnable game til the Wildcats went off in the second half. I guess this game comes down to what Alabama takes from the UF game, and/or how they are approaching this one with their last home game coming up against UGA. Right now, Ole Miss is playing their way out, while Alabama, with these two wins, could conceivably play their way IN. Truly, this matchup on paper is intriguing from a stat standpoint, but it's more than that. It's can Mississippi play at their warp-speed pace or can Alabama slow this down at all. This season, typically Mississippi has fared much quite well against slow-down teams, while Alabama has struggled just a bit against up-tempo teams. However, they are young, which can be a problem on the road. Still not sure I can lay the points here, and think that the Tide WITH the points given the direction these teams are going in RIGHT NOW is a safer bet.

Memphis at UTEP: I would think that Memphis really wants to beat the shit out of a few teams to perhaps overcome that Xavier loss and the fact that the C-USA is simply weak. And clearly although there is zero shot for UTEP (they'll play somewhere post season, though) to make the Dance, this is by far the biggest game on their schedule and of course their last home game. They've got only two home losses this season, one to UNLV by two and a marginally bad one to Tulsa, but I think you can almost throw that out the window here. Memphis knocked them out of the C-USA tournament last season, which was predictable since they beat the Tigers in Memphis earlier last year. UTEP is bigger, and brings back essentially the exact same team this year. The only thing holding me back from a C-USA GOY is UTEP's inability to rebound the offensive glass, and you simply know Memphis will run at every opportunity. If UTEP was able to push NMSU to the brink on the road, and stay with a fast paced UNLV team (given that UTEP wants to walk) then I think they can win this game.

Marquette at Rutgers: Marquette's a projected #4 seed, which to me is because they play in the Big East. I've felt all season that both them and Pittsburgh were a bit over rated. In this game I really have to question what their motivation is. They could conceivably given the schedule catch G-Town, but they're not going to catch L'ville in the Big East with the Cardinals having only two home games left. So, the truth of the matter is that Marquette doesn't have much t play for, IMO, nor do they really have any impressive road wins. I can't count the OT win earlier at Pittsburgh because I simply don't think the Panthers are in that elite class, either. If Eli Carter hadn't had the season-ending injury, I'd be all over Rutgers here. But, it IS their last home game and there have been instances where Rutgers goes off from three point range. Again, though, without Carter that's not likely. With a spirited effort they could, I suppose, keep this close. Regardless, I simply don't lay points on the road in Conference play, so it will be the Scarlet Knights or nothing.

Arkansas at Missouri: Clearly we cannot take Arkansas on the road, can we? It was almost sinful how they played at LSU last week, falling behind by twenty and then almost winning it. It's a big game for Missouri not only in terms of the post season, as they're currently projected at about an 8 seed, but they need to win to stay ahead of Mississippi to get that #4 seed and a first round bye in the SEC Tournament. Tigers still haven't lost at home, and Arkansas' lone conference road win was at BFD Auburn. They did beat Michigan earlier this season on the road, but that was as close to a revenge game from last year as their is, so the time and the motivation here are just very different. Obviously we fully expect Missouri to win this game, but by enough to cover the number. They lost at Arkansas just about two weeks ago, so for revenge and as a statement to the committee, they do have every impetus to pound the shit out of Arkansas. This may be one of those rare times where I could conceivably lay a big number. I simply cannot take the Hogs.

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