Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday February 21

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday February 21

Wunderdog

California at Oregon
Pick: California +6

The Oregon Ducks are 21-5 on the season, but they built a big record with a very soft non-conference schedule with the only notable win coming against UNLV. they are 9-3 in their last 12 games, but have not pulled away from anyone with just one win by 10 points or more, and had a lot of close calls winning in overtime. Four of their other wins came by 5 points or less. Cal has pinned one of the five losses on the Ducks, and have come a long way late in the season from where they were early on. The Bears are 5-1 in their last six and in addition to beating Oregon they have also knocked off UCLA. The Ducks' record is impressive, but the results of close games leaves them short as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. Cal gets the call here.

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Teddy Covers 

Georgia at Arkansas
Play: Georgia

Arkansas is in a miserable spot tonight.  They’re coming off a lucky, somewhat fraudulent win over Missouri in their last game, outscoring the Tigers 7-1 in the last 28 seconds to steal a two-point victory.  On deck for the Razorbacks?  A trip to Florida to take on the revenge minded Gators.

In between is this game against Georgia as double-digit favorites.  Even head coach Mike Anderson is worried about his team’s ability to focus tonight.  “I know after Missouri everybody is patting them on the back and saying, ‘Great, great win!’”

While focus is a major issue for the home favorite, we’re catching the road underdog in a spot where their hunger is very real.  Three different extremely controversial calls went against the Bulldogs in the final minutes of regulation against Ole Miss on Saturday, as they lost an eight-point lead late, eventually losing in overtime to the Rebels.

But even in that defeat, Georgia showed why they are a bet-on team in hostile environments.  Prior to the OT loss at Ole Miss, they had won their previous three SEC road games at Tennessee, South Carolina and Texas A&M.  Head coach Mark Fox: “We have been pretty stable away from home.  I think our defense has been pretty consistent all year and that has been a great stabilizer for us. One of the keys to winning away from home is trying to slow that home team down.”

Georgia also has one significant matchup edge against the Razorbacks – rebounding!  Anderson: ““They outrebounded Ole Miss by 15. That’s something that really caught my eye. Ole Miss is a very good rebounding basketball team. We will have our work cut out for us…They’re a team that will shoot it and go get it. Their guards rebound the basketball.”

Over the last five games, Georgia has averaged a +6 margin on the boards, while Arkansas has averaged a -8 rebounding differential.  Expect those extra possessions for the Bulldogs to work in our favor tonight!

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Nelly

LaSalle + over Temple

LaSalle has won eight of the last 10 games making a strong push in the Atlantic 10. The Explorers have been an excellent road team with a 9-4 S/U record in road and neutral site games this season. Temple has struggled at home this year including going just 2-9 ATS and the Owls look a bit overvalued again Thursday night. Temple has history on its side but the Owls are just a mediocre 6-5 in A-10 play this season and coming off a huge one-point road win over Massachusetts could create a letdown spot tonight. Temple has lost to several marginal teams at home this season falling against Duquesne and St. Bonaventure and four of Temple's six conference wins have come by two point or less as this is a team that has been fortunate to squeak by in several games. The win over Syracuse gives the Owls some national credibility but there is not much else to like on the resume for the Owls. Temple won in overtime when these teams met last season which should boost the importance of this game for LaSalle and statistically the Explorers have looked like the superior team on both sides of the ball.

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Steve Merril

San Antonio vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: San Antonio

We’ll take the points with the Spurs as they avenge the two losses to the Clippers with an impressive performance tonight in Los Angeles.

Both teams went into the All-Star break on extended winning streaks; San Antonio won 14 of their last 15 games while Los Angeles won 5 of their last 6 games.  The Spurs have played since the break and they won 108-102 at Sacramento on Tuesday night.  We see that as being a big advantage for San Antonio as they’ve had a game to get their rhythm and chemistry back on the court.  They will be the sharper team tonight, and since they are playing with double revenge, we expect the Spurs to come with a big effort.

Los Angeles has won both of the meetings against the Spurs this season.  The Clippers won at home 106-84 and they won at San Antonio 92-87.  However, both of those games came way back in November and a lot has changed since then.  The Clippers were also underdogs in both of those games and now they are laying more than a bucket into a team that is 43-12 on the season.  Los Angeles was playing their best basketball of the season prior to the All-Star break, and the interruption in play was not a good thing for them.  We’ll take the points with the Spurs as they avenge the two losses to the Clippers with an impressive performance tonight in Los Angeles.

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Jack Jones

Heat/Bulls UNDER 187

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. These are two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and it's clear that they bring out the best in one another defensively when they get together. That's evident when you look at the recent meetings between these teams.

Each of the last three meetings between Miami and Chicago have seen 185 or fewer combined points. Chicago beat Miami 96-89 on the road in their lone meeting this season. They also played twice last April with Miami winning 83-72 at home for 155 combined points, and Chicago winning 96-86 (OT) at home for 182 combined points.

If you don't count overtime, Chicago and Miami have combined for an average of 169.3 points/game in their last three meetings. As you can see, that number is well below tonight's posted total of 187. That means we are getting roughly 18 points of value in backing the UNDER in this one.

The UNDER is 19-8 in all Chicago home games this season. It is scoring 91.8 points/game and allowing 88.9 points/game at home this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 180.7 points/game at home this year. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago.

Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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Freddy Wills

Connecticut +1

Uconn is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meeting with Cinci. If they can rebound tonight they win this game because Cincinatti is really struggling shooting 35.2% from the field. They rely too much on the three ball over 44% of their shot come from three in their last 5 games shooting just 27.4%. Uconn defends the perimeter well and they are even playing better at home. Cinci has not proven it can play on the road on the defensive end as they are ranked 14th overall in 2 point defense but on the road they are giving up over 5% more allowing opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field. Look for Uconn to use that to their advantage.

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Red Dog Sports

Duke / Virginia Tech Under 146½

Take the under in this game. Duke plays solid defense and is not a very deep team without Ryan Kelly, who has been out about a month with an injury. Virginia Tech has Erick Green, who averages over 20 ppg but the other starters are less productive on the offensive side. Look for a game that barely reaches the 140's that stays under.

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Jeff Alexander

Penn State +15

Illinois has won back-to-back games by 20 and 21, respectively, but doesn't deserve quite this much respect against a Penn State squad that is fighting hard for its first Big Ten win. The Nittany Lions have covered the number in each of their last two games as they have given Iowa and Michigan all they wanted and more. Plus, Illinois is 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take Penn State.

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Dave Price

Oregon State +2

Stanford can't be trusted laying points on the road. It is just 2-4 on the road in conference play this season and enters this contest in poor form having been upset in back-to-back games at home. The Cardinal won the season's first meeting at home but will have a tough time duplicating that performance here. It has defeated Oregon State by more than 2 points on the road just once in the past five meetings. The Beavers have been a tremendous investment when catching points. In fact, they are 64-43 ATS as an underdog under coach Craig Robinson. The Beavers lost at Washington last game but are an impressive 8-1 ATS following a loss against a conference foe this season.

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SPORTS WAGERS

La Salle -105 over TEMPLE

The Temple Owls are a well-known program that ranks sixth all time in collegiate basketball in wins. As a pick-em on its home court against the lesser known Explorers of La Salle, the Owls are likely to get plenty of public backing here. We’re not on board for that, as the Explorers are one of those mid-major clubs with little fanfare but major talent. La Salle has now won six of its past seven games to run its overall record to 18-6 and conference record to 8-3. If La Salle beats Temple tonight, the Explorers will go 4-0 in the Big 5, winning the Big 5 title outright for the first time since 1989-90. The Big 5 is a group of Philadelphia schools (Villanova, Temple, La Salle, Penn and St. Joseph's) that have played in a round-robin format every year since 1955). The last time the Explorers went 4-0 they also won an NCAA tournament game. With the way this club is playing, another trip to the dance this season is attainable.

The Owls have been on a once in a lifetime run the past five games with all five contests being decided by a single point. We’re not sure but it’s quite possibly the first time in history that one team has had five games in succession decided by one point. Temple went 3-2 in those games but what’s more significant is the intensity level of play and the toll it takes. Those past five games were not against any elite clubs other. Among them, Temple lost at home to the 1-11 Duquesne Dukes. They also lost to St. Joes while defeating UMass, Dayton and Charlotte. The Owls have gone just 5-4 in their past nine contests and they’re not the superior team here. La Salle is in better form and catch the Owls at precisely the right time.

Pass NBA

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SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO -114 over Buffalo

Bettors have long been known to play the “first game after a coach has been fired” angle and for the most part, it’s been a decent play. This one has a different feel to it. Lindy Ruff was the longest tenured coach in the NHL with 15 seasons and over 1050 games behind the Sabres bench. This is not just a coaching change, it’s a culture change in Buffalo.

Here’s an excerpt from one of the reports of his firing: ‘One by one, they filed off the bus and began walking into an uncertain future. There was an unmistakable air of disbelief as the Buffalo Sabres stepped into a snowy Toronto night with the news of Lindy Ruff's firing still shaking them to the core. It was clear that most of the players had yet to even make sense of what happened.’

Expecting the Sabres to respond in a positive way to this firing is not reasonable. The Sabres are not only stunned and upset, they’re not very good either. Lindy Ruff took the fall for the poor moves made by GM Darcy Regier. The Sabres defense is weak and usually out of position. Buffalo has one unproven center that is being carried by Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville. Shocked, the Sabres don’t figure to be better here.

The Maple Leafs have won two straight at home, outscoring the Flyers and Panthers 8-2. They’ve also won six of eight games with only losses over that span occurring at Carolina and Tampa Bay. They were the better team at Tampa but Ben Scrivens was pulled in the third after allowing four goals on 13 shots. The Bolts finished with just 19 shots on net. Despite that hiccup, Scrivens has been solid in net and we have plenty of confidence in his ability to rebound off one poor showing. His Leafs are playing with confidence. They have a strong system in place and they believe in it. The Leafs have played the Sabres twice this season already and although they split the games, Toronto was clearly the dominate team in both games. Expect more of the same here.


OTTAWA +116 over N.Y. Rangers

OT included. Do the New York Rangers really deserve to be favored on the road in Ottawa? We think not. The Rangers have 17 points after 15 games and that’s after playing 10 of those 15 games at home. In the standings, New York is ahead of Washington, Florida, Buffalo, the Islanders and Winnipeg. The Rangers 39 goals scored puts them ahead of fewer teams than that. Then there’s the power-play. There are 30 NHL clubs and the Blue Shirts power-play ranks 30th, hitting at a mere 10.9%. To give you an idea of how futile that is, the Columbus Blue Jackets PP is connecting on 13%. With that pop gun offence, the Rangers will head to Ottawa as the favorite and will do so without the services of top point-getter, Rick Nash. We’re not interested.

Since reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson went down about a week ago, Ottawa’s injury woes have been all over the hockey news ever since. In the first game without Karlsson and Jason Spezza (injured earlier), the Sens went into Toronto and lost 3-0. Subsequently, Ottawa won its next two games over the Islanders and Devils while outscoring that pair 5-2. Sens goaltender Craig Anderson is leading the NHL with a 1.57 GAA and he has a 1.92 GAA in 18 career starts versus the Rangers. The Rangers are widely perceived as a strong hockey club but it’s not warranted. They’ve proven over the first 15 games that they’re almost as beatable as anyone and another defeat here would be of no surprise. 


DALLAS +127 over Vancouver

OT included. The Canucks have a good record on paper that reads 8-3-4. In other words, they’ve only lost three games in regulation but the fact remains that they have an 8-7 overall record. Six of Vancouver’s eight wins have occurred against teams that are under .500. This was a highly physical and feared Canucks club the past decade or so but they’re not feared anymore. Vancouver has lost its swagger. They’ve also lost three straight games and they’re allowing far too many scoring chances for our liking.

The Stars are without their #1 goaltender, Kari Lehtonen but that might turn out to be a blessing as he's 2-7-0 with a 3.59 goals-against average in 10 career matchups against Vancouver. In his place will be Christopher Nilstorp with his 2.70 GAA and .918 SV% in two games this season. Dallas has won five of its past seven games. It could easily be six of seven after they gave up three unanswered goals to Calgary on Sunday in a 4-3 defeat. Despite that, the Stars have scored three or more in seven straight and in eight of their past nine. Dallas has also played six of its past seven on the road and will now play the second of consecutive home games for the first time in nearly a month. Loaded with offense and a nice blend of youth and experience, the Stars are more dangerous at home than the Canucks are on the road and that makes Dallas a nice value play here.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Arkansas/ Georgia Over 132.5: This game is similar to when Georgia visited Ole Miss.That game went to OT, but still 140 points were scored in regulation, because Georgia ran with the Rebels and I expect them to be in another uptempo game here. Georgia has scored 68.3 ppg in their last 3 road games and Arkansas allows 66.3 ppg at home, so we can expect the mid 60’s at least from the Dawgs. Arkansas comes in averaging 82.5 ppg on their home floor and they have scored at least 73 points in each of their last 5 SEC home games. Georgia has played some good defense this year, but they have allowed 67 ppg on the road and let’s remember that the Hogs put up 80 points on a very tough Florida defense on this floor. I do not see the Hogs being held under 70 points in this one. 75-65 sounds about right for this one.


ST MARY'S -8 over BYU:  The Cougars have won 2 in a row, but are not playing all that well right now. They have been 8 or more point faves in their last 4 games and are just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in those games. In their last game they beat Utah State at home by just 2 points and prior to that they beat Portland State by just 14 and were outplayed in the second half.  Now they travel to take on a St Mary's squad, who's only home loss on the year was by 17 points to Gonzaga. Despite that crushing loss and the fact that the Gaels are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, they have still outscored opponents by 18.2 ppg on their home floor this year. The Gaels score 80.7 ppg on 50.3% shooting at home and that is really not good news for a BYU squad that has allowed 72.8 ppg on 46.7% shooting away from home. The Cougars have really struggled on defense overall of late, allowing 78.7 ppg on 47% shooting in their last 5 games, and as I stated they were pretty sizeable favorites in 4 of those 5 games.  St Mary's won by just 1 point at BYU earlier in the year, but I feel that the are playing much better than the Cougs right now and will win this one by DD.


Stanford/ Oregon State Under 147.5: Only reason I see that this OU line is this high is because the first meeting put up 154 points, but generally the 2nd game in a season series tends to be a bit lower scoring. Oregon State home games have averaged 143.8 ppg and just 2 of their Pac-12 games overall have put up more than tonight's total. Stanford road games have averaged just 138.2 ppg and they also have had 2 Pac-12 games this year go over tonight's total. Stanford's offense has struggled some on the road as they average 68.4 ppg on 41.1% shooting. They really don't shoot well on the road and OSU allows just 40.3% shooting at home, while allowing 68.3 ppg. Oregon State has averaged 75.5 ppg at home, but Stanford allows 68.8 ppg on the road and they have allowed 65 points or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Both teams do play uptempo, but I feel that tonight's the defenses will play better than the first meeting.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami -3 over CHICAGO: The heat seam to be able to turn off an on when they want to play. Well in this revenge spot and on national TV, this is one of those games that they will show up and play. Miami has won 8 in a row and that stretch has included road wins over Oklahoma City and Atlanta, plus double digit home wins over the Clippers and San Antonio. Yes this game is on the road, but Chicago has not really been all that great at home, going just 15-12 SU and while they play great defense at home (88.9 ppg), they don't really score all that well, putting up just 91.8 ppg. I feel that Miami and the hot shooting James will come out and look to dominate this game from the beginning and in the end they should win this one by at least 10 points.

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NHL Predictions

Philadelphia Flyers -150

Florida enters this game with a 4-7-7 record, and they are just 2-4-1 on the road this season. The Panthers have lost 5 straight games coming into tonight, with their last win actually being a 3-2 shootout victory against the Flyers. Philadelphia really out played Florida in that game, and the Panthers were lucky to come away with two points. Over their 5 game losing skid the Panthers have been shutout 3 times, including their latest at home against the Maple Leafs. The Flyers are 8-9-1 on the season and a solid 4-1-1 on home ice. They have won two straight games, which includes last night's 6-5 win in Pittsburgh as big underdogs. In their last two games the Flyers have scored 13 goals. Note that the Panthers are 10-25 in their last 35 road games, and just 9-23 in their last 32 overall dating back to last season. Florida is also just 2-8 in their last 10 games following a loss of 3+ goals. Philadelphia is 50-22 in their last 72 vs a team with a winning % below.400 and coming home from a long road trip doesn't bother them as they are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings vs Florida and I think they follow up a big win last night with a good effort and victory at home.

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David Banks

Heat / Bulls  Under 186.5

The Miami Heat (36-14, 26-24 ATS) are in the midst of probably their best regular season stretch since LeBron James arrived and they look to keep it going vs. the Chicago Bulls (31-22, 23-30 ATS) at the United Center in Chicago Thursday at 8:05 ET on TNT. The Heat have often gone through the motions during the regular season since LeBron came to South Beach two seasons ago but they are looking like the defending champions that they are much earlier than usual this season. Meanwhile, the Bulls have not enjoyed too much of a home court advantage this year as they are just 15-12 straight up and a miserable 7-20 ATS at the United Center.

The Heat carried a seven-game winning streak into a road date with the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday and James has had probably the best seven-game stretch in NBA history over the winning streak. And no that is not an exaggeration as James set an NBA record by scoring at least 30 points and hitting at least 60 percent from the field in six consecutive games over the first six wins of the streak and he nearly extended that steak to seven, as he missed a late three-point attempt in a 110-100 win at Oklahoma City in an NBA Finals rematch last Thursday to finish 14-for-24 from the field (58.3 percent) while scoring 39 points! Besides James and the Heat being in raging current form, this is also a revenge game for them as the Bulls won the first meeting this season 96-89 down in South Beach on January 4th, well before the current Miami hot streak began. That win actually makes the Bulls 6-2 straight up and 7-1 ATS in the last eight regular season meetings between these two teams, but the Heat won four out of five when it mattered most in the 2010-11 NBA Playoffs and Miami's regular season form has never been as close to its playoff form as it is now during Chicago's success against the Heat.

For whatever reason, the Bulls simply cannot shoot the ball at home this season and that is the reason for their struggles in the Windy City. The defense has been fine no matter where the Bulls have played as they rank third in the league in points allowed overall with 91.5 per game, third in field goal percentage allowed at 43.3 percent and third in three-point defense. Moreover, the defense has been suffocating at home where Chicago is allowing 88.9 points per game. However, the Bulls rank 27th in the league in scoring with 93.2 points per game, and while most teams shoot the ball better at home that they do on the road, the Bulls' scoring inexplicably slips to 91.8 points per game  at home! In fact, in a real statistical oddity especially in the NBA, Chicago has a better road record (16-10) than it does a home record. The Bulls won their first game out of the All-Star break 96-87 on the road (naturally) at New Orleans Tuesday, but that was just their second straight up win in the last six games overall, dropping Chicago into second place in the Central Division, one game behind the Indiana Pacers.

The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the Southeast Division while the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with winning home records.

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Undefeated77's Triple Confirmation Plays
(discovered through forum research)

===============================
===============================
===============================

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY
Samford +4 over Elon.

-------------------------------------------

Game 549-550: Elon at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.656; Samford 51.575
Dunkel Line: Samford by 1; 118
Vegas Line: Elon by 3; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+3); Under

-------------------------------------------

DCI Index
SAMFORD 65, Elon 63

==============================================
==============================================
==============================================

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: California at Oregon (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: California +6 (-110)
The Oregon Ducks are 21-5 on the season, but they
built a big record with a very soft non-conference
schedule with the only notable win coming against
UNLV. they are 9-3 in their last 12 games, but
have not pulled away from anyone with just one
win by 10 points or more, and had a lot of close
calls winning in overtime. Four of their other
wins came by 5 points or less. Cal has pinned
one of the five losses on the Ducks, and have
come a long way late in the season from where
they were early on. The Bears are 5-1 in their
last six and in addition to beating Oregon they
have also knocked off UCLA. The Ducks' record
is impressive, but the results of close games
leaves them short as they are 1-7 ATS in their
last eight conference games. Cal gets the call
here.

-----------------------------------------------------

The Daniel Curry Index
DCI Index
OREGON 69, California 66

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 529-530: California at Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 63.101; Oregon 69.410
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 138
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over

==============================================
==============================================
==============================================

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
02/21/13 Predictions
SAINT MARY'S 80, Byu 70

------------------------------------------

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks
February 21, 2013 6:52 AM by GT Staff
540 Saint Marys CA -8

--------------------------------------------------

Game 539-540: BYU at St. Mary's (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 59.781; St. Mary's 73.725
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 14; 155
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 8; 150
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-8); Over

==============================================

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LEGIT PICKS

Thursday 2/21/13 Plays...

3* PENN STATE +15 (5:15PM PST)

---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

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