Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

JR O'Donnell

Arkansas -10.5

Our 6pm "Rock Play" as we see things getting ugly in the SEC opener @ Bud Walton Arena for a 6 p.m. tipoff. Arkansas (9-5) is coming off a bad bad loss in its SEC home opener at Texas A&M.   Arkansas plays at an unreal pace on D end and they create tunovers... They are ranked  # 3 in the nation in turnover margin. The Razorbacks are 17-9 against Vanderbilt in a series that began in the early 1960s. .. (6-7) Commes played the Mighty Kentucky Wildcats last game @ 60-58 loss and now Vegas spots them 10... WAY WAY TOO easy to grab a Commes team plus 10...POWER RATED by our camp @ - 15.32 points.... Commodores are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arkansas.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT -2 over Utah

Great spot for the Pistons here. Not only is Detroit one of the hottest teams in the Association with seven wins in nine games (both losses came in OT), they catch the Jazz at precisely the right time. Utah’s loss in Atlanta last night could snowball. The Jazz led that game throughout, had a 15-point lead late in the third and eventually surrendered the lead with about 90 seconds to go for good. They walked off the court demoralized and with their heads down. Utah now has to travel again to play their third road game in four days and final game of this trip. On Monday, they return home to play the Heat.

The Pistons played in Milwaukee last night and buried them by 16. That was on five days rest so they are certainly going to be the fresher club with more energy. Winning increases energy and right now the Pistons are feeling it. Detroit’s starting five is rock solid and the bench is deep, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.7 points in the last nine games. This is a cheap price to pay for the better team at home in a very favorable spot.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +7 over INDIANA

Talk about no respect and one need not look further than Tubby Smiths’ Golden Gophers. Here’s a team that is 15-1 and gets a fraction of the recognition Duke or Indiana gets. Two of the Gophers last three wins have come against Michigan State and Illinois and it’s not like the Golden Gophers squeaked out a win. They beat that pair of ranked teams by a combined 29 points. Minnesota’s SOS (strength of schedule) ranks 5th in the country while the Hoosiers rank 42nd. The Gophers get plenty of points to work with here in a game they can win outright.

Indiana is loaded with talent, no doubt about it. However, they have not looked that sharp over the past few games and it’s going to catch up to them. They blew a double-digit lead on Butler in mid- December and did the same last week at Iowa. Between those two games, Indiana played a lot of cupcakes but that all changes here. This is too much weight to be giving the under-hyped Gophers. Tubby Smith will probably have a big “+7” on the chalkboard to stress how disrespected they are and to further motivate his guys. Upset possibility.     


N.C. STATE +125 over Duke

This is actually one of our favorite days of the year to back some live pooches, as there is no college football to parlay today’s NFL playoffs with and NBA starts much later. These early Saturday matchups will attract a ton of “parlay” money and the oddsmakers are fully aware of the extreme increase in volume today on these popular teams. This is by no means a knock on the Blue Devils. They’re 15-0 for a reason and they’re certainly a threat to win another National championship. However, there is almost always a premium to pay when wagering on the Dukies because of their immense popularity with the betting public. Throw in that this is the Blue Devils first true road game of the year and the makings of an upset is on high alert.

The Wolfpack are dangerous. They’ll be amped up and raring to go in front of a packed house. They should’ve beaten this team last season and have an even better chance to do so this year. N.C. State leads the nation in field goal percentage, hitting 53% of their shots. They've been even better at home, connecting at a 56% while averaging 87 points per game. The Dukies are in tough here and in a game in which the dog has just as good a chance to win as the fave, taking the points or the money is the prudent choice. We'll go with the latter.


Auburn +132 over SOUTH CAROLINA

What most people are going to see is the 10-4 Gamecocks a small price at home over the 7-7 Tigers. What they’re not going to see is that South Carolina has played one of the softest Division I schedules in the country, ranking 344 out of 347. The Gamecocks have not beaten a quality club all year long. When they played the Johnnies back in late November, they were buried by 24 points and followed that up with a 9-point loss to Clemson. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against marshmallows and Auburn collects it here, as USC might just be the SEC’s weakest team.

Auburn is no threat to win anything this year but they’ve played a much tougher schedule than South Carolina, ranking 153rd in the country. There is also positive signs moving forward, as USC carries some momentum into this one. After losing by just a deuce at Illinois on Dec 29, the Tigers responded with back-to-back wins against Florida State and LSU. They bring that streak of three quality outings and two successive victories into this one. Gamecocks are usually ripe to get beat by a conference foe and this is one should be no different. Tigers outright.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Dave Price

Phoenix Suns +8.5

I don't trust the Bulls laying this many points as I believe they'll be in for a letdown following last night's big win over the Knicks. Chicago is 4-15 ATS in home games this season and 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

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Jeff Alexander

Philadelphia 76ers +1

Philly has the big edge in terms of fresh legs. It has had 2 nights off to rest and prepare while Houston just played last night and will be playing its 4th game in 5 days. The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Nelly

NC State + over Duke

NC State has had some struggles this season which is not unexpected with a young but immensely talented team. NC State has rallied to win nine in a row including a few very solid wins over decent teams. NC State will certainly be up for the opportunity to take on the #1 team in the nation, especially after a slim five-point loss at Duke last season in the only meeting between these teams. Ryan Kelly will sit for Duke with a foot injury and Duke struggled without Kelly last season, losing two of three games in tournament play. Duke has played an impressive schedule in non-conference play but the Blue Devils have not played a true road game yet this season. Duke has won six neutral site games and obviously the travel is not significant but Duke could have trouble adjusting to a hostile environment for the first time. NC State has one of the most impressive offensive teams in college basketball; scoring over 81 points per game and shooting 53 percent and the Wolfpack are capable of delivering a minor upset and sending Duke to its first loss. The home team has won five of the last six regular season meetings between these teams and this is a great spot for NC State to play its best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Charlie Sports

Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers
Play; Philadelphia 76ers

The (21-16) Houston Rockets of the NBA Western Conference Southwest division will take on the (15-22) Philadelphia 76ers of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NBA action. The Rockets beat Philadelphia 125-103 earlier this season at home. The Rockets have dropped their last NBA games straight up and Against The Spread on the road. The 76ers have covered 7 of their last 10 Basketball games vs. Houston, but the Rockets have covered the last 2 meetings. Philadelphia gets the home cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Harry Bondi

SAN FRANCISCO (+14) over St. Mary's

In a game that on surface looks like a mismatch, we're actually getting some tremendous value with San Fran plus the points. First and foremost, St. Mary's comes in fresh off a hard-fought 83-78 loss to its bitter rival Gonzaga on Thursday night. That works in favor of San Fran since the Gaels have covered just six of their last 20 the game after facing the Zags. San Fran has also been very good in this series at the betting window, covering 16 of the last 22 meetings. In fact, San Fran is 27-12 ATS the last three years in Big West games and tonight they earn another cover against a St. Mary's team that will once again be in letdown mode after a tough game against Gonzaga. Take those points!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Green Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO: I know in the other thread that I created the Talk was about taking teams that can run and stop the run, but I will go against that theory here. One thing to look at here is experience and Rodgers has a big edge over Kaepernick in that department. Now GB Can't run the ball, but they can stop the run pretty well. If we take out the 3 games they had vs Petersen and the Vikes then the Packs has allowed just 102 ypg on the ground this year. The Packers did allow 186 yards on the ground to SF in the opener, but they are a bit healthier on defense than they were for that one. Overall the Packers defense is 11th in total defense and 11th vs the pass, while allowing just 21 ppg, which is also 11th. This is a tough defense that is just getting better as they have allowed 16.8 ppg in their last 6 games. The Niners offense is 11th overall and 11th in scoring (24.8 ppg). They are 4th in rushing, but just 23rd in passing and Collin was supposed to change that, but he hasn't. He has some solid numbers as QB, but not the experience of a playoff game yet and i feel that will hurt him here. San Fran does have a top notch defense, but I just don't see them stopping Green bay enough on defense or putting up enough of their own points to get the win here. Look for Green Bay to pull it out in the 4th.   

Denver/ Baltimore Under 45.5: This Baltimore offense is just a mess right now and very inconsistent as well. Sure they score over 30 ppg at home, but on the road they have put up just 18 ppg and have scored 17 or less in 3 of their last 4 away from home. Despite scoring 30+ at home, they were able to muster just 17 points in a home loss to the Broncos, back in December. I expect them to have more problems vs a Denver defense that comes in ranked 2nd in the league overall, 3rd vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 4th in points allowed (18.1 ppg). On the other side we do have a Peyton led offense that does score a bunch of points, but they also are a ball control offense that wears you down with long time consuming drives. That will eat plenty of clock here.  The Baltimore defense has been playing better of late, allowing just 264.7 ypg and 15.3 ppg in their last 3 games and you can bet that they will look for a better showing than last time vs Denver. 51 points were scored in the earlier meeting, but I don't see this one putting up more than 40. Really just one team will be doing the scoring here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Harvard -12 over DARTMOUTH:  Last year the Crimson beat Dartmouth by 16 in both games and they should by at least that much in this one. Harvard is not the same team they were last year, but they are still very good and had a tough non-conference slate, which should have them ready for the Ivy League season. Harvard was really impressive with a two game road trip to the left coast as they beat Cal and then two days later lost by just 1 one point at St Mary's. Dartmouth has nothing on their resume that resembles that. The Big Green has faced just 2 BCS Schools on the year and lost both by 19 and 21 points. Recently Dartmouth lost at home by 16 to a 6-10 Colgate squad and they lost at Boston College by 21 points, while Harvard won their by 16 points. Dartmouth is just not a good team, while Harvard is a good team and has been battle tested. They should win this one by at least 20.   

3 UNIT PLAYS

Duke/ NC State Over 149: Despite the fact that Duke is missing Ryan Kelly, I will look to take the Over in this one. NC State loves to run and they will certainly push tempo in this one. Duke has played very good defense of late, but I don’t see that holding up here vs a Wolfpack squad that has averaged 81.3 ppg overall and 86.6 ppg at home. NC State has put up 78 or more in 8 straight games and they are currently on a stretch that has seen 6 games in a row put up 151+ points. The Wolfpack defense is not that strong and they come in allowing 69.7 ppg overall and 71.8 ppg in their last 6 games. Duke comes in averaging 79.3 ppg and even without Kelly they have more than enough offense to put up 75+ here vs this NC State defense, especially in what should be an uptempo game. This game should be a run and gun  show from the beginning and could quite possibly put up 160 points. 

Missouri/ Mississippi Over 152: This one should be a fun one, that should have the shot clock operator taking the night off. Ole Miss comes in averaging 83.9 ppg and they have scored 85+ in 4 of heir last 5 games and the one game they didn't they put up 81 points. Their home games have averaged 155 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 162.2 ppg. For Missouri, they have been involved in some high scoring games as well, as their last last 5 games have averaged 156.2 ppg. The Tigers come in averaging 78.9 ppg, including 85.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The defenses have been solid for both teams , but these offenses are on just too much of a roll right now to think they can be stopped. I look for this one in the 160's. 

More later

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Steve Merril

Houston Rockets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers   

Houston is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game. The Rockets will be playing their fourth game in five nights and they are also on a back-to-back road set after losing 103-91 in Boston last night. Houston has been terrible in their last two games as they lost both games as their offense scored just 79 and 91 points. They shot just 41.9% (65-155) from the field in those games while going an ugly 30% (18-60) from three-point land. Houston will be playing on tired legs tonight so we expect their offense to struggle once again in this game. Philadelphia comes in off a much needed 2-day break. The Sixers played a grueling 8-game road trip before returning home for one game and then hitting the road for a game in Toronto the following night. The Sixers now have two full days of rest for this game and they are catching a tired Houston team at the perfect time. “It is going to feel awesome,” Jrue Holiday said when asked how playing at home with full rest is going to be. “I can’t wait.” Philadelphia is in an ideal spot to break their 5-game losing streak. We’ll take the points with the rested and hungry home team, especially since their opponent is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game on Saturday night.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Larry Ness

New Mexico St. vs. Idaho
Pick: Idaho

New Mexico St lost quality players like the 6-6 McKines (18.7-10.7), guard Larouche (11.9) and the 6-11 Rahman (9.9-5.8) from LY’s 26-win NCAA team and comes into this game 9-8 overall (3-2 in the WAC). Sophomore guard Mullings (15.3-5.6) is the leading scorer but the Aggies’ strength is their depth up front. Watson (10.8-5.2) is a 6-5 small forward with the 6-8 Sy (9.7-6.8), the 6-10 Nephawe (7.2-5.2) and the 7-5 Bhullar (9.5-4.7). However, Tshilidzi Nephawe underwent hand surgery in mid-Dec and is out indefinitely, putting a 'dent' in that frontcourt depth. Don Verlin is in his fifth season at Idaho and has taken the Vandals to the CIT three times (not exactly the NCAA or the NIT but it is postseason play). The Vandals have the 6-10 Barone (15.3-8.4) and 6-5 SF Madison (15.2-4.7), two players who should give them an excellent chance to take down the Aggies. NMSU is just 2-6 SU and ASTS on the road, beating only South Alabama (8-7) earlier TY and 5-9 Seattle just last Thursday, 83-82 in OT. After nearly knocking off Utah State five days earlier, the Vandals were stymied by Denver at the Cowan Spectrum on Thursday as they scored a mere 49 points. Idaho led at the half and held a 44-41 lead with just over three minutes left in the game, but couldn't close the deal. Verlin's team was able to beat New Mexico St's excellent team LY at this venue, so expect nothing less, here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Brad Diamond

LaSalle -9

Explorers travel home after being roasted at Charlotte this week as once again their shooting (Galloway) was less than spectacular from three. Guard oriented offense gets relieve today as the front line for the Spiders has injury issues.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Dennis Macklin

San Diego State -5

This was supposed to be the year for Colorado State and while they are much improved, they haven't played like a team bringing back the fifth most experienced club (in terms of starts) in the country. The Rams two road losses were both by nine points, one to a not very good Illinois-Chicago and the other to in-state rival Colorado. In the end, CSU is a pretty good middle of the pack school in a very good Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is very good and somewhat underrated despite being ranked. The Aztecs lost their opener in a rescheduled game on an aircraft carrier and by a point to Arizona in Maui. SDSU has won 11 of 12 in the series and is off a very flat effort against Fresno State. Expect a much more focused shoot-the-lights-out performance here in an easy double-digit points home win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Scott Delaney

My 69-43-2 freebie run is on the line tonight, as I look to nail No. 7 of 10 with comp plays with South Alabama in Sun Belt play in Denton, Texas against the North Texas Mean Green.

I know North Texas has won three straight meetings in this series, but something tells me the better team in the Ratings Percentage Index is the play here, and should win outright.

South Alabama (8-7, 5-2) comes in after a momentous two-overtime win against Louisiana-Lafayette, 91-89, while North Texas (6-11, 1-5) lost on the road at Arkansas-Little Rock, 67-53. And I say momentous for the Jaguars because they rallied from a six-point deficit in the final three minutes, the largest second-half comeback by the team this season, to force the extra session.

I'm intrigued with the matchup between South Alabama's Augustine Rubit and the league’s preseason player of the year, North Texas' Tony Mitchell, who ranks seventh in the league in scoring (14.6), fourth in rebounding (8.9) and second in blocks (2.5).

While Rubit’s six-game streak with double-doubles came to an end Thursday with a game-high-tying 26 points and nine rebounds, he's still tied atop the league with nine double-doubles.

Though Mitchell has the home crowd benefit, Rubit is the type of player who will take over a game and silence any arena on the road.

The Jags have covered five of seven in Sun Belt action while the Mean Green are mired in ATS slides of 1-6 in league play, 0-4 on Saturdays, 2-5 at home and 1-4 overall. I'm playing the road pup, looking for an outright and counting on Rubit to lead the way.

2♦ SOUTH ALABAMA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Jeff Benton

Your Saturday freebie comes in ACC action, as I back the Seminoles at home over the Tar Heels.

Florida State has caught traction, as the Sems come into this game having won six of their last seven games, including a weeknight upset win at Maryland as State was able to stop a 13-game Terrapins winning streak.

North Carolina has really struggled with all of their departures, as Roy WIlliams' crew heads to Tallahassee having lost their last pair, including an ugly home loss on Thursday night to Miami-Florida.

The Heels are just 2-3 straight up away from Chapel Hill, and you should know that UNC has not fared well in recent meetings with Florida State, as the Seminoles own a two game series winning streak, and have taken four of the last six series meetings from the once-mighty Tar Heels.

This is Florida State's first home game since December 17th, so expect a rapid home crowd rooting their school on. There is no love lost between these schools, and any time you get a shot at North Carolina when they are in a down season, you better take advantage.

State to do just that today!

Back Florida State as the small home favorite.

4♦ FLORIDA STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Matt Rivers

A lot has changed since these teams opened the season at Lambeau Field with the 49ers winning a 30-22 affair, but what I don't think has changed much is the fact these teams will once again put points on the scoreboard.

My free play for Saturday is the Over in the Packers-Niners contest.

This will be the fifth meeting between the teams since the 2006 season, and all four of the previous meetings have landed Over the total.

Green Bay comes in off a 24-10 playoff win over Minnesota, and while the defense did shut the Vikings down, let's keep in mind that backup Joe Webb was quarterbacking Minnesota in that game. The week before the Pack did allow 37 in their loss at Minnesota!

The Green Bay offense finally has their receiving corps back and healthy, and they do come to Candlestick averaging over 30 points per game their last six contests. Expect the Packers to find the end zone in this game,

As for San Francisco, the 49ers have played Over the total their last four games, and seven of their last eight overall have also played Over.

Stick with the established series trends, and the offensive nature of the teams coming into this game, as the Packers-Niners head Over the total one more time.

3♦ GREEN BAY-SAN FRANCISCO OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Red Dog Sports

UNC at Florida State
pLAY: UNC +4.5

UNC is off a bad home loss to Miami and lost at Virginia last Sunday. They are 0-2 in the ACC and have only started 0-3 in the ACC once. UNC's players have now experienced one home and one away ACC game under Roy Williams in 2013.

UNC has some talent in James McAdoo, who scores at close to 14 ppg while Reggie Bullock contributes on offense and defense. UNC has just one senior and that is Dexter Strickland, who failed to score on Thursday and should be motivated.

FSU lost at Clemson and seems to be average this year. They did lose to Florida Gulf Coast. They are led by Michael Snaer and beat UNC for the ACC Tournament title last year. The Tar Heels will look for revenge today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Teddy Covers

Memphis vs. Dallas
Pick: Memphis

The betting markets have overvalued the Dallas Mavericks from Day 1 this year, and things haven’t really changed since Dirk Nowitzki returned to the lineup following a two month injury absence. 

Dallas has won a grand total of four games in the last month.  Two of those wins came against Sacramento.  One came against Washington.  And one came against Philly, against a Sixers team that is on a 3-13 slide over the last month.  In other words, the Mavs haven’t been good enough to beat anyone but bottom feeders, yet they’re being priced in a range where they’ll need to beat an elite team in order to cash a winning bet tonight.

Memphis, on the other hand, has been an undervalued commodity since Day 1; a small market team without a marquee superstar.  They’ve got the single best ATS mark in the entire NBA, and they’ve been at their absolute best in this ‘short favorite’ role: 12-2 ATS in 14 tries as chalk of 6.5 points or less.  They’re 4-1 ATS on the highway playing on the second night of back-2-backs this year, primed to close out their road trip with another comfortable victory here!  Cheap price to lay with the vastly superior team!  Take the Grizzlies.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 12

Freddy Wills

Pepperdine +100

I think we get good value with Pepperdine being home here. Vegas had these two teams only a 1/2 point away just a few years ago when San Diego played Portland as a -6 favorite, one game before Pepperdine played Portland as a -5.5 at home. Both teams lost those games and then San Diego went on the road and upset San Fran as a +5.5 so here comes a let down spot against a Pepperdine team they beat three times last year. I view both of these teams on equal levels here and I think Pepperdine wants to get some momentum here after already facing BYU and Gonzaga in conference play. They get senior PG Lorne Jackson back after he missed last year and given what I saw in each teams game against a common opponent I think we are getting good value here. The home team is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 meetings.

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