Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday December, 24

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday December, 24

DUNKEL INDEX

Fresno State vs. SMU
The Bulldogs look to follow up their 48-15 win over Air Force in the regular season finale and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Fresno State is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12)

Game 213-214: Fresno State vs. SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 97.175; SMU 78.675
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 18 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 12; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12); Under

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Marc Lawrence

SMU

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Paul Leiner 

500* SMU /  Fresno Over 59.5

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Pointwise Phones

3* Fresno St

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Jimmy Boyd

SMU/Fresno State Over 59.5

The Mustangs and Bulldogs have both been solid overs teams down the stretch. SMU checks in having finished over the total in five of its last seven games. Fresno State has come in over the number in three of its last four.

The Bulldogs have been solid defensively all season, but their run defense has been an issue. They rank 76th in the country against the run with 172.3 yards allowed per game. The Mustangs will look to take advantage of Fresno State's weakness in order to open up big plays with their respectable passing attack, which ranks 58th in the nation with 237.2 yards per game.

The SMU pass defense leaves plenty to be desired as it ranks 107th nationally with 271.2 yards allowed per game. An explosive Fresno State passing attack that ranks 12th in the country with 322.6 yards per game should be able to take advantage.

Consider that plays on the over on all teams (Fresno State in this case) when total is between 56.5 and 63.0 points in a game involving two teams that allow 21.0 to 28.0 points per game, provided the "play on" team has scored 31 points or more in three straight games, are 29-7 the last 10 seasons. We've see an average posted total of 59.5 points in these contests, and we've seen the two teams combine for an average of 68.1 points. This system is 19-3 over the last five seasons.

It is also worth noting that Fresno State has finished over the total in each of its last four bowl games. Bet the Over.

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Dave Cokin

SMU vs Fresno State
Pick SMU

Tough call on the side in this game, although I like the Total substantially more. As for the side, Fresno State is clearly superior, but that's in the line. Double digit chalk is a long term bowl loser, so while I'm not excited about the Mustangs, SMU plus the points is the choice.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Fresno State -11 over SMU

Forget Boise State. The Bulldogs of Fresno State are undoubtedly the Mountain West’s most talented team. QB Derek Carr threw for 3700 yards and his TD to interception ratio was 36-5. Carr has a vast array of skilled receivers to get the ball to and should have plenty of time to throw against SMU’s pass defense. The Mustangs rarely get to the QB, allowing big plays to hurt them all season. SMU resides in the weak Conference USA. They went 6-6 on the season and even that’s flattering as they lived off of 33 takeaways. However, 28 of its 33 turnovers occurred at home and Fresno State is not turnover prone.

Additionally, the Mustangs’ offense is horrible. QB Garrett Gilbert averaged 5½ yards per pass and while the running game is better, they will be facing a Fresno State defense that faced five of the nation’s top 11 running games. The Bulldogs are superior in every phase of the game. SMU’s last appearance at this Bowl game, a rout over favored Nevada, is keeping this price at a very beatable one and we intend to take full advantage.

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Wunderdog

SMU at Fresno State
Pick: SMU +11.5

The Hawaii bowl and SMU coach June Jones returns to his glory days on the Big Island. SMU had to fight hard to get this game with a 35-27 win against Tulsa in the regular-season finale, as well as winning four of their final six games. The offense has been clicking behind junior QB Garrett Gilbert, scoring 72, 44, 34 and 35 in those wins. The Mustangs will be playing for their third bowl championship in four seasons, having won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl and the 2012 Compass Bowl. In 2009 Jones returned to Hawaii for this bowl and as a +11 dog destroyed Nevada, 45-10. He has the type of speed-oriented passing offense that is a perfect fit for the Hawaii fast carpet. SMU also has balance on offense with 2012 C-USA Offensive Player of the Year RB Zach Line (1,207 yards, 4.7 ypc). The SMU defense is decent, tied for the national lead in pick-sixes and is tied for third in the nation in total takeaways. The Mustangs are also tied for sixth in interceptions and for third in fumble recoveries for TDs. Fresno State has a great offense, but the defense is only a little better than SMU's allowing 22.3 ppg. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games, while the SMU Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Mountain West, so grab the big dog in this evenly matched game. Play SMU.

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Sean Higgs

4* SMU +12.5

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Trace Adams

1000♦ Fresno St -12

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WIZARD

10 Units SMU +12

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Seabass

200* Fresno St

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Chris Jordan

200* SMU / Fresno St Over 59.5

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Jimmy Boyd

3* Fresno St -12

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KELSO

25 Units Fresno St -12

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

SMU/ Fresno State Under 60: Both teams have high scoring offenses, yet the OU line is still at just 60 and has come down from it's opening number of 60.5. That's because these teams can play some defense. The Fresno State Bulldogs come in ranked 19th in total defense and 4th vs the pass, while allowing just 22.8 ppg (28th). They can be run on some, allowing 172.3 ppg (76th) and I feel that the Mustangs will use their run game a bit more to keep that high powered Fresno offense on the sidelines. Overall SMU gains just 5.2 yards per play, while the Bulldogs allow just 4.7 ypp. Should be a  total ball control game by SMU in this one, which should eat clock. The Fresno offense is very good and they are a pass happy bunch going up against a weak SMU pass defense, but the Mustangs also know how to create turnovers 3rd Nationally), which could slow down an FSU drive or two. Back in 2009 SMU has similar defensive numbers as they allowed just 3 yards per game more this year than that year and they were facing a Nevada squad that was averaging 38 pgg, yet they held the Wolf Pack to just 10 points in that game. Give June Jones extra prep time and he will come up with a good defensive plan to slow any offense down. He will do so here as well. I look for this game to be played in the low 50's at best.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

2* FRESNO ST

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KB Hoops

5 Units Fresno State -12 *POD*

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Trace Adams

1000♦ Fresno St

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BIG AL

SMU

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