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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco 49ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Second year QB, Colin Kaepernick looked mortal in the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis last week. But San Fran wasn't really up for the game after 2 BIG wins over Chicago and New Orleans. Miami's offense is anemic, with just 5 TDs in the last 4 games. They have a shaky ground game and an inexperienced QB in Ryan Tannehill. They will not be able to move the ball on a 49ers stingy defense that allows a mere 14.2 PPG. Coming off the loss last week, San Francisco needs to flex their muscles and make a statement here. Take San Francisco.

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Greg DarabanFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cowboys at BengalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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123 Dallas (6-6) at 124 Cincinnati (7-5) NFC Cowboys visit AFc Bengals. Dallas has gone over 3 of last 4 games. Cincy has gone under last 4. The thing taht sticks out is the Bengals played 3 straight very weak AFC opponents SD, KC, Oak. Dallas has gun slinger Romo and Cin QB Dalton can throw as well. High scoring game in Cincinnati.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee at IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tennessee +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indianapolis Colts have turned a disastrous season a year ago into one in which they’re a bona fide playoffs contender at 8-4, if they can finish the job over the last four weeks. Andrew Luck has given them a passing game. He's having an amazing year and appears to be establishing himself already as an elite NFL quarerback..... Record scratch. While this is what you hear from the stuffed suits, the reality may surprise you. Blaine Gabbert. Kevin Kolb. Tennessee's Jake Locker. What do these three quarterbacks have in common? They aren't very good. Yes, that's true, but what else? They are all looking down on Andrew Luck in the quarterback rating standings. That's right, the better quarterback statistically in this game is not named Andrew Luck. Luck will be a great quarterback in this league, but he's still a rookie on a bad team. He has passed for over 3,500 yards, but because the Colts struggle to run the ball, Luck is on schedule to approach the 700-pass mark this season. He has a pedestrian passer rating in the mid-70s, and he has just one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. The Colts may be 8-4, but they have been out-scored by 41 points on the season. They have been very fortunate to win every close game, and six of their eight wins have been in either overtime or by 4 points or less. The fact is that if they were giving 5 points in every game they would be 3-9. Indy isn't as good as advertised. Jake Locker is going to be able to move the chains, as the Colts have mustered just six sacks in their last four games. Chris Johnson got 99 yards in the first game, and the Colts have surrendered 100+ on the ground in each of their last three. The Titans are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game. This is the most points Indy has had to lay in two years. It's too large. Take the underdog here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Ray Monohan

St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills 

The Bills are hardly a juggernaut but at home, as winter sets in, against a “Dome” team I like those odds. Buffalo got their running game going last week with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller gouging the defense and should be able to again against an average St. Louis defense. The Rams are getting too much respect for having the 49ers number this year including beating them as a heavy underdog last week. In fact they have only one win against a team outside their division this year so it appears familiarity is an advantage for these Rams - they haven’t played the Bills since 2008. The only reason not to take Buffalo is if you feel they have a long way to fall after last week. At -3 all they really have to do is win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

King CreoleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Lions +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Any time you can grab significant or more points with the #2 offense in the entire league, you do just THAT. Detroit comes in averaging 410 YPG (2nd to New England's 427 YG)... and the #1 passing offense (313 YPG). Not to mention, 27 PPG as well. In their last two games, the results have been even more dramatic (451 and 535 total yards). The Lions are in EVERY game, more often than not. In fact, they're off 3 home games in which the margins were only 2 pts... 3 pts... and 4 pts. And they'll be taking on a Green Bay team that's down DRAMATICALLY compared to last year. The Packers are down NINE points compared to last year's offense (25 ppg vs 34 ppg).
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In this NFC North Division, the database tells us to fade the hosts when they're coming in off a win. The Packers beat Minnesota last week.
5-16-1 ATS since 2002: NFC NORTH division home teams off a SU win (G Bay) vs any opponent off a SU loss (DET). Dating back to the last 6 years, these teams have gone 1-8-1 ATS.
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Green Bay comes in with a 8-4 SU record, while Detroit is exactly reverse (4-8 SU). The Packers are off a win and laying 6 or more points... and the OU line is on the high side (49 pts). Let's query all four of those aspects (record, result, line, OU line).
0-7 ATS since 2006: All > .500 division home favs of -6 > pts off a SU Win (Packers) vs and < .500 opponent off a SU loss (LIONS) when the OU line is 48 > points.
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As mentioned above, the Lions are off a (rare) 3 straight game HOMESTAND (and they lost all three games).
12-2-1 ATS since 1982: All road teams playing off 3 straight home losses (DET).
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Also as mentioned above, Detroit lost their last two games by 2 and 3 points each.
5-0 ATS last 3 years: All road teams (DET) off BB SU losses of 3 or less points EACH.
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Both of those last two losses by Detroit were very high-scoring (35 to 33 and 34 to 31).
10-1 ATS since 1989: All division road underdogs (LIONS) of 2 >  points playing off BB SU losses (last as a fav) in which they allowed 34 or more points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears have cooled off since a 7-1 start. They have lost three of their last four games both straight up and against the spread.
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Chicago is just 2-4 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite. The big reason it has struggled as chalk lately is because it is one of the weakest offensive teams in the NFL. The Bears rank 30th in the league in total offense with 303.4 yards per game. The Minnesota offense isn’t great but it has had more success moving the football than Chicago. It ranks 22nd with 335.5 yards per game.
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It is also worth noting that the Chicago defense appears to be wearing down. The Bears have given up an average of 136.3 rushing yards over their last six games after allowing an average of only 71.3 in their first six. They were gashed for 176 rushing yards and 459 total yards in last week's loss to the Seahawks. This is significant because the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
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Chicago will have a tough time dealing with a Minnesota rushing attack that ranks third in the NFL with 154.9 yards per game.
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The Vikings have been strong at home where they have won five of six games this season. One of their home wins was a 24-13 victory against the San Francisco 49ers, who crushed Chicago 32-7. Minnesota has gone 4-1-1 against the spread in these games.
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Chicago has been a terrible investment on the road late in the season. In fact, it is just 11-27 against the spread in road games in the final four weeks of the regular season over the last two decades. It has lost by an average score of 24.5 to 15.8 in this situation.
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The home team has covered the number in seven of the last last nine meetings. Take the Vikings in the home dog role.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Accuscore

Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Detroit Lions

Stephen likes the Packers to cover , and he hasn’t been wrong in about two months so who am I to disagree? The computer agrees with both of us projecting Green Bay to cover 55.5 percent of the time, and win by 10 points on average. Detroit has shown themselves to be not a great football team having lost four games in a row including by four points at home in Week 11 to the Packers. Now this game is in Lambeau with the playoffs no longer possible.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Over 50.5

The computer sets the total at 55 points with the over on the posted line occurring 62.1 percent of the time. That is the most likely AccuScore four-star total play of Week 14. Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have combined to throw 948 passes this season. Neither team is particularly good at running the ball, and more often chooses to go to the air. If the Packers get up early as we expect, Detroit will choose to pass even more often.

Indianapolis Colts -5 vs. Tennessee Titans

The Colts win 63.7 percent of simulations, and by 10 or more 40 percent of the time. The computer has the Colts covering the five point spread 50 percent of the time, but I see as a slightly bigger line. Indianapolis quite frankly, at this point is on a freight train towards the playoffs. They have won six of their last seven games including a six point road win vs. the Titans. Most of those games have been very close actually, but I feel the defense will play a bit better at home, and Andrew Luck was just absurdly good last week against Detroit. He seems improved even from just a month ago like something has clicked and he has figured out how to the move the football in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Under 48

The computer sets this line at just 43 points, and has gone a combined 18-4 picking totals in games involving either of these two teams. Tennessee has lost four of their past five games, and in those games they have scored just 13, 20, 19, and 10 points. That includes a 13-19 loss to Indy at home in Week 8.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Bruce Marshall

N.Y. Jets vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville

The Jets don't exactly inspire much confidence when laying points on the road these days. And it’s not the QB controversy that many in Jets Nation were expecting.  But another stinkeroo effort by Mark Sanchez (three picks vs. the Cards last week) and Tim Tebow’s injured ribs have ex-Alabama QB Greg McElroy (who engineered the only TD in the comeback win over the Big Red) as another option and caused Rex Ryan to balk before keeping Sanchez in the lineup on Sunday at  Jacksonville, where the return of favorite son Tim Tebow has Jaguar management un-tarping some blocks of seats at EverBank Field.  But even if Tebow gets on the field, is it a plus for the Jets? J'ville is missing MJD, but still prefer Chad Henne over any Jets’ QB option.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Chip Chirimbes

New Orleans Saints vs. NY Giants    
Play: NY Giants

It was just over a year ago as I sat in a Super Dome Suite with Desi Vegas and Duce McCalister as the Saints destroyed the Giants on a Monday Night. Well the Giants went on the win the Super Bowl after that and with the Super Bowl in New Orleans this year the Saints will have to buy tickets. Giants in REVENGE!. Take NEW YORK!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jordan Runco

Lions vs. Packers
Play: Over 48

Detroit travels to the frozen tundra on Sunday night, but their playoff chances are basically frozen after they lost at home last week to Indianapolis, 35-33. Green Bay is struggling with some injuries, but they keep winning. They beat the Packers, 23-14 last week as a 7-point favorite. Detroit visits Lambeau Field on Sunday night to take on the Packers at 8:20pmET. Last game: Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT, 24-20

Odds: The oddsmakers have installed Green Bay as a 6.5-point favorite. The total is 48 in most books.

Line Movement: Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point favorite and remained there at most books. The total started at 52.5 and moved to 48 in most books.

NFL FREE PICK: OVER Detroit/Green Bay. Latest trends: The game is 4-1 OVER last 5 at Green Bay. Detroit is 13-4-1 OVER last 18 following an ATS loss, 5-1 Over last 6 games overall, 13-4-1 Over last 18 following an ATS loss, 19-6-2 Over last 27 on grass and 16-7-1 Over last 24 in December. Green Bay is 16-5 Over last 21 home games, 11-4 Over last 15 on grass and 8-3 Over last 11 in December.

The Packers are back on top of the NFC North after the Bears stumbled at home last week to Seattle. Green Bay’s lack of a running game has hurt them but they are facing Detroit (4-8), who has lost four straight and is toast when it comes to the playoff race. Their defense was also atrocious last week when they allowed the Colts and rookie Andrew Luck to score two touchdowns in the final 2:39 minutes to blow the game. Aaron Rodgers will have a big game against a team that is clearly done. The Lions have allowed 69 points and 960 yards in their last two games. In his last trip to Lambeau Field, QB Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five TDs in a 45-41 loss on Jan. 1.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Rob Vinciletti

Rams vs. Bills
Play: Bills

The Bills are the beneficiaries of some solid systems that plays against the Rams and any road team in this spread range that are off back to back dogs wins. Teams that are in non conference games after 2 big divisional road wins tend to struggle vs non conference games. The Rams are 0-10 with 1 spread win in game after playing the 49ers and have lost 7 of 8 in game 13 of the season. The Bills have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and 11 of 13 as a home favorite of 6 or less vs losing teams. The Rams struggle big time vs teams off a win of 10 or more vs average teams if they are getting 9 or less. Will back the Bills today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Nick Parsons

Jazz at Lakers
Pick: Under

With the total at it's highest point in this series since 2010, we will side with the under here. The Lakers and Jazz have gone under the total at a 6-1 pace, and with the Lakers struggling offensively we don't see a return home to the scrutiny of the home town fans as the best remedy. The Lakers, albeit minus Steve Nash, have not worked well under D'Antoni's system and while Antwaan Jamison has provided much needed scoring as a starter, Pau Gasol's injury is in question after being largely ineffective. Howard has looked far from the dominant defensive player he was known as in Orlando, and Al Jefferson matched Dwight's 19-point 9 rebound effort with an 18-point and 10 rebound game of his own. These teams cashed in on the under in the last meeting in Utah this season, with a total that was 20 points lower, because of this we think this one has room to go under the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

NFL Betting Picks

Washington Redskins -2.5

Baltimore enters this game with a 9-3 record and in first place in the AFC North. They are 4-2 on the road this year. The Ravens are coming off a 23-20 loss to the Steelers at home as 7 point favorites, as the Steelers were missing Ben Roethlisberger. Before that game the Ravens have won 4 straight and 8 of 9, but with a closer look at their schedule it really fails to impress me. The only real impressive wins were at home vs New England by a single point (missed FG at the end by NE) and in their home opener vs the Bengals where they won 44-13. The Ravens beat Dallas, who haven't been too good this year, by just 2 points at home and barely got by the Steelers with Byron Leftwich as the starting QB and playing through a broken rib. In their other wins they did take care of a bad Oakland team beating them by 35 points at home, but it took overtime to beat the 4-8 Chargers by a FG, they've beat Cleveland by 10 and 7 points, and Kansas City by 3 points. Note that their 4 road wins have come by a combined 19 points and those games came against well below .500 teams + the Steelers without Roethlisberger. Other road games included a 24-23 loss in Philadelphia, and a 43-13 loss in Houston. The Washington Redskins are 6-6 on the season and 3-3 at home. They are fighting for a playoff spot and helped their chances on Monday night with a 17-16 win over the defending Super Bowl Champs. Since their bye week they are now 3-0 and have seemed to really come together in the past couple weeks. 4 of the Redskins 6 losses have come against teams that are either in a playoff spot or currently tied for a playoff spot. Washington has beaten some good teams including New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and the Giants, and have other impressive wins @Dallas on Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota by 12 points at home, and vs Philadelphia by 25 points at home. Both the Ravens and Redskins are struggling defensively with Baltimore ranked 25th and giving up 20.2 papg and the Redskins ranked 29th giving up 25.1 papg. Offensively the Redskins rank 7th in the NFL and are averaging 26 ppg, while the Ravens rank 19th and average 25.2 ppg. Take note that on the road the Ravens are averaging just 16.5 ppg. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Baltimore hasn't proven much at all on the road this year and will have another tough test against a confident Redskins team that has their offense clicking. I like the Redskins to win and cover the spread for a 4 unit play.


Atlanta Falcons -3

The Falcons are 11-1 on the season entering this game and 5-1 on the road. They are coming off a big 23-13 win at home vs the Saints on Thursday night and have now won 3 straight after losing in New Orleans a few weeks back. Atlanta hasn't had too many tough tests yet this year, but they've continued to look impressive and are 7-4-1 ATS. The Panthers had high expectations heading into this year but are just 3-9 entering Week 14, and an awful 1-5 at home. They failed to beat Kansas City last week as 5.5 point favorites, losing by 6, which came after a Prime Time win in Philadelphia. These two teams met earlier in the season with the Falcons barely squeaking out a 30-28 victory as 7 point favorites. Atlanta has won the last 5 meetings between these two teams, including 31-23 in Carolina last year in December. They've covered the spread in 4 of those 5 meetings as well. Atlanta ranks 9th on offense and are averaging 26.4 ppg, while Carolina is 18th averaging just 19.6 ppg. Defensively Carolina ranks ahead of Atlanta at 14 (vs 18), but the Falcons are allowing just 19.1 papg while the Panthers are allowing 24.3 papg. Note that th Falcons are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Falcons do have a big game coming up against the Giants next week, but I can't see them looking past a team they barely beat earlier in the season. I expect Atlanta to come out and win their 6th straight vs Carolina and cover the spread in doing so.


Cleveland Browns -5.5

Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the NFL this season with their 2-10 record, which includes being just 1-4 on the road. They are coming off a big emotional victory at home vs Carolina last week, but had lost 8 straight games prior to that. If you look further into their 8 game losing streak prior to Sunday you will notice that they scored 16 or fewer points in all but one of those games and averaged 11.63 ppg during that 8 game losing skid. The Cleveland Browns are just 4-8 on the season, but they've been somewhat impressive throughout the year. They are 3-3 at home this season and 7-4-1 ATS. They've won two straight games vs Oakland and Pittsburgh, and their other wins have come against Cincinnati and San Diego at home. It took Dallas overtime to beat Cleveland in Dallas 3 weeks ago, and the game prior to that the Ravens escaped with a 10 point win over the Browns but that was also a tight game. Overall Cleveland has been competitive in almost all of their games played this year. The same cannot be said about the Chiefs. Overall the Chiefs rank 21st on offense but are scoring jsut 15.7 ppg, while the Browns rank 27th scoring 19.1 ppg. Kansas City is 16th defensively but giving up 26.8 papg, while the Browns are 23rd but giving up 22.1 papg. Take note that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a straight up victory. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. Even though the Browns have just 2 more wins than the Chiefs I think they are quite a bit better this year, and I will lay the points with the Browns at home.


Titans / Colts Under 48

Tennessee enters this game 4-8 on the year and 2-4 on the road. Take note that UNDER is 4-1 in the Titans last 5 games, as they've scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 and have given up 24 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Colts are in a playoff spot to almost everyone's surprise with their 8-4 record and 5-1 home record. Indianapolis has their offense going, but they've also stepped it up defensively. The Colts have allowed 13 or fewer points against in 4 of their last 7 games and 20 or fewer points against in 5 of 7. These two teams have already met once this season with a Colts 19-13 victory in Tennessee. Take note that while the Colts are ranked 3rd in offense they are averaging just 22.1 ppg. The Titans are ranked 23rd overall on offense and averaging just 20.7 ppg. Both teams aren't too strong defensively with Indy giving up 25.5 papg and the Titans giving up 29.9 papg, but being divisional rivals they usually play each other tight. In their two meetings last year the teams split with each winning at home. The totals of those two games were 40 and 37. Overall the UNDER is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, and 10-1 in their last 11 meetings in Indianapolis. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the Titans last 20 vs divisional opponents, and 4-0-1 in their last 5 games in December. The UNDER is 10-1 in the Colts last 11 vs divisional opponents, 10-1 in their last 11 home games, and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is also 15-6 in their last 21 games overall. Both teams play the UNDER at a high percentage vs divisional opponents, and the past has shown these two play each other to the UNDER. I don't see anything being different this week and with a high total I will take the UNDER.


Green Bay Packers  -6.5

Detroit has had quite the rough season entering Sunday's meeting with a 4-8 record overall and 2-4 road record. The Lions have lost 4 straight games, which have included a few tough losses. Last week the Lions blew their lead late losing 35-33 on the last play of the game. Prior to that the Lions lost in overtime on Thanksgiving to the Texans. Detroit's wins this year have come against St Louis, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Their only somewhat impressive win was vs Seattle and that was in Detroit and it took a late touchdown to win. The Packers are 8-4 head into Sunday's game and well on their way to another playoff appearance. They are a solid 5-1 at home after a 23-14 victory over Minnesota last week. Green Bay had won 5 straight before going into New York and losing by 28 points to the Giants. Included in those wins was a 24-20 victory over the Lions. The win was their 3rd straight vs Detroit, and the Packers have pretty much owned the Lions over recent years. Take note that the Lions do rank 2nd in the NFL offensively compared to the Packers at 16th, but are averaging just 0.3 more ppg at 25 compared to the Packers are 24.7 ppg. Defensively the Packers are allowing 21.6 papg, while the Lions are giving up 26.2 papg. The Lions have given up 34 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and 24 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Take note that the Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs NFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs divisional opponents, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Packers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs divisional opponents, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall, and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs Detroit. The Lions should be able to put up a couple scores in this one but I can't see their defense doing much to stop Rodgers and the Packers offense. The Packers continue to beat up on Detroit winning and covering on Sunday night.

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Sean Murphy

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over

The Chargers are by no means a trendy upset pick this Sunday, but I won't be surprised if they give the Steelers a challenge. Look for the San Diego offense to get back in rhythm on the road, where it has been at its best this season. Save for a bad weather game in Cleveland, the Chargers have been good for 20+ points like clockwork away from home. The Steelers will suffer enough of a letdown following....last week's huge road win over the Ravens to open the door for at least three San Diego scoring drives. Not to be outdone, Ben Roethlisberger will make a triumphant return to the field, and lead the Steelers on three touchdown drives of his own, breaking the back of a Chargers defense that has held up well over the last couple of weeks - but simply can't sustain that level of play heading out on the road. A defensive score by Pittsburgh isn't out of the question either, especially when you consider how careless Philip Rivers has been with the football this season (that has certainly been a product of trying to do too much with limited weapons around him). With Big Ben, not to mention WR Antonio Brown back in the mix, the Steelers are one of the AFC's most prolific offensive teams, and the oddsmakers have once again missed the mark, setting another rather low total here at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is content to outgun San Diego in what has the makings of a fun December matchup in the Steel City. Final verdict: Pittsburgh 27 San Diego 21

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

David Chan

Atlanta vs. Carolina
Pick: Under

Atlanta is 11-1 SU/ATS. The O/U is 4-8. Last week it beat the Saints 23-13, the total staying well below the posted number of 54 in that one. The Falcons may have locked up the NFC South title with last week's victory, but they still have plenty to play for as they look to secure the conference's No. 1 seed.

With a victory, the Falcons will inch closer to a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Last week's defensive performance could very well have been the team's best, and it will be looking for a repeat performance today.

QB Matt Ryan was just 18 of 33 for a season-low 165 yards and a TD, but the secondary would go on to grab five INTs off of Drew Brees.

It's interesting to note that Atlanta has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten as a favorite.

Carolina is 3-9 SU/ATS. The O/U is 7-5. Last week it lost 27-21 at Kansas City, the total sailing above the posted number of 41 in that one.

When these teams played in Week 4, Atlanta would hold on for a 30-28 victory.

To say the Panthers are seeking revenge this week would be an understatement:

"We owe them something and it is coming," said Carolina DE Greg Hardy on Wednesday.

Despite the high-scoring affairs this year it's still significant to note that Carolina has seen the total go "under" the number in 12 of its last 22 home games.

A situational play here.

Atlanta's tough defensive play continues to get the job done. If the Panthers have any shot at pulling off the upset, they'll have to match that intensity, controlling the ball while on offense, and play their best defensive game of the season.

This number is just a little high; consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Steve Merril

Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Tennessee

These two teams met in late-October with the Colts winning 19-13 in Tennessee.  However, the Titans were a 3 ½-point favorite in that game and they led 13-6 with less than 4 minutes to play.  Indianapolis got a late touchdown to force overtime and they eventually won in the extra session.  Tennessee was in a terrible scheduling spot for that game as they were off their dramatic, last-second win at Buffalo the week before; the Titans won that game 35-34.  They were in a definite flat spot yet they still were in control of the game late.  The roles are revered for the rematch as Indianapolis is now in the bad spot while laying a handful of points.

The Colts capped another miracle comeback win last week in Detroit as they rallied from a 13-point deficit with less than 3 minutes to play.  Indianapolis scored two touchdowns, including the game winner on the final play of the game to beat the Lions 35-33.  That win sets the Colts up in a major letdown spot for this game, especially since they’ve already beaten the Titans this season.  Tennessee is off a pair of bad divisional efforts so we expect their best here, especially with the memory of how they lost to the Colts on their home field.  We’ll take the points with the road underdog in a game that comes right down to the wire.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Dave Cokin

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs bonded together under dire circumstances last week and played their best game of the season. Look for them to flatten out here and resume their losing ways. Cleveland in a rare spot to deliver a knockout win, I'll lay the points with the Browns.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jim Feist

Magic at Suns
Pick: Over

The Orlando Magic (7-12 S/U, 10-9 ATS, 9-10 O/U) look to break a two game losing streak here on Sunday. The Magic finish up a road trip that started great with wins at the Lakers (113-103) and Golden State (102-94). They then lost the next two on the road at Utah and las time out at Sacramento. Still, the Magic have covered three of four on this trip. The Magic have gone UNDER in three straight, but before that they ran off five straight OVER games while scoring 102 or more points in four of six contests. Considering the Suns are a horrible defense club, allowing over 100 points in four of the last five and nine of the last 13 - look for that streak of OVERS to start up again here on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns (7-13 S/U, 6-13 ATS, 11-8 O/U) have lost six straight games after their setback at at the Clippers on Saturday, 117-99. Now they are in the unenviable position of playing back-to-back spots. The last seven times they have been in this spot the OVER is 5-2. Last seven meetings between these clubs in Phoenix are 5-2 Over/Under and I look for another high scoring game here on Sunday. Take the OVER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Andy Iskoe

Buffalo -3

Buffalo had one of its best efforts of the season in last week's win over Jacksonville. St Louis pulled an upset of San Francisco and at 5-6-1 remain on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. Both teams have covered 3 of their last 4 games. St Louis continues to excel as an underdog but, surprisingly, Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The Rams are off of a tough stretch of games, including back to back Divisional wins. Any inclement weather and the elements do favor the Bills. The Rams have already lost to the other 3 AFC East teams by a combined 55 points. But what I really like about this play is Buffalo's improved play on defense.  In looking at games 7 through 12 vs games 1 through 6, Buffalo has been allowing 123 fewer yards per game (307 in games 7 - 12 vs 430 in games 1 - 6).  This is the greatest improvement in the league but will not be seen if you just look at season to date stats.  St Louis has a rather ordinary, below average offense which suggests Buffalo should keep up its recent high level of play on that side of the football.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Tony George

Panthers +3.5

I am still in the school of thought Atlanta is somewhat of a paper tiger. Yeah I said it, at 11-1 I think they are a solid team but their schedule has been favorable.  Home dogs are always worth a look in division play and Carolina caught KC last week playing their hearts out for a fallen brother, and KC played their best game of the season, Carolina was the victim of that.  The Panthers will not take this game lightly and they have been in every game this season except 1.  The Panthers lost by 2 in the first meeting at Atlanta and ran for 199 yards on the Dirty Birds.  This is a set up spot for Atlanta with the Giants on deck and their inability to run the football (ranked 28th) is going to catch up with them, and RB Turner banged up and not 100% today if he plays.

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