Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Ray Monohan
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears    
Play: Chicago Bears
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The Bears are coming off a solid win over the Vikings and they have a 1-game lead over the Packers in the tough NFC North, but they are really banged up. Offensive linemen Lance Louis and Chris Spencer and WR Devin Hester are out with injuries and star RB Matt Forte is a question mark.
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Still, they have a great defense and they will be facing a Seahawks' team that is 6-5, but is coming off a loss and only has 1 road win this season. This season the Seahawks are 7-4 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 4-7 and the Bears are 6-5 ATS with an Over/Under record of 6-5.
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If Forte cannot go Michael Bush will be the main RB and while he had 60 yards last week against the Vikings when Forte went out he averaged less than 3 yards per carry.
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For Seattle Russell Wilson does not have the best WR corps and has a tall task since the Chicago pass D ranks 6th in the league. I just don't see how Seattle will move the ball. All the Bears emphasis will be on stopping Lynch.
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The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games but I really like them enough on Sunday to cover. The Seahawks have had their number the last couple years but rookie Wilson has never played at Soldier Field in December. Bears win with strong defense and Cutler/Marshall will have a solid outing even against Browner/Sherman (Seattle's Pro Bowl DB's)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Nick ParsonsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Cardinals vs New York Jets
Pick: New York JetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Jets 3-1 in their games as a favorite under a touchdown, we will take them to cover over the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals on the other hand are 0-4 in that same situation, and down to their third string quarterback. The Cardinals are actually 2-0 as a dog under a TD this season but are about to play their first road game in this situation, and are 1-4 on the road SU so far. Their only road victory was a crazy 20-18 win over the Patriots, the second of four straight wins for the Cardinals to start the season. The Cardinals are very different offensively since opening the year 4-0, losing seven straight and have yet to score 20 points in any of those losses. We will take the dis-functional Jets at home against these sad sack Cardinals. Take New York with the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Suns vs Knicks
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phoenix Suns (7-10 S/U, 5-12 ATS, 9-7 O/U) travel to the Big Apple to take on a very improved Knicks club on Sunday. The Suns have lost two straight games including a 40-point blowout loss at Detroit a few nights ago. They did play better next time out, but still lost at Toronto, 101-97. This is a game five of a very long six-game road swing and it won't get any easier for them today. The Knicks will look to run the Suns off the court here on Sunday. New York (11-4 S/U, 11-4 ATS, 8-7 O/U) have scored over 100 points in 11 of their 15 games this season. New York is third in the league in points scored (102.7), but are also 8th in points allowed (94.4). Carmelo Anthony is leading the Knicks with 26.1 ppg. I like the over today. The Knicks will score a lot in this one against the Suns 30th ranked defense (102.5 ppg allowed). The Knicks have gone OVER in seven of their last 11 games. And, with a few days of rest between this game and their next, don't expect any players needing much rest. Take the OVER here on Sunday and enjoy the show.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Jeff Scott Sports
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4 UNIT PLAYS
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Indianapolis/ Detroit Over 51: This should be a fun game with a ton of balls in the air and a ton of points on the scoreboard. The Colts offense has come alive a bit behind Andrew Luck as they have averaged 23.5 ppg in their last 4 games, compared to just 20.9 ppg overall. The Passing game comes in ranked 7th in the league, while overall this offense is 6th. The Detroit defense does come in 13th overall (343.8 ypg), but they are 23rd in points allowed (25.5 ppg) and they have struggled in their last 3 games, allowing 406.7 ypg and 30.7 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a defense that Luck should have some success vs. The Indy Defense on the whole looks like they have played very well of late, but even though they have allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games, we see that those five teams were Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, Jax and Buffalo. 5 of the worst offensive teams in the league and the one good offense they faced (New England) they allowed 59 points in that game. Now they take on a Detroit offense that is 2nd overall (412.9 ypg) and 1st in passing (312.5 ypg). At home Detroit has been even better as they have averaged 326 ypg through the air and 414 ypg overall. Detroit scores just 23.8 ppg at home, but this is a must win game for them and you can expect a very non-conservative game from them which should have them putting the ball in the endzone a bit more. Stafford vs Luck should be a great aerial show and that should have us seeing nearly 60 points.
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Houston -6.5 over TENNESSEE: Houston had some extra time off after going to OT in their last 2 games and it was needed by this team Their defense was starting to wilt as they have given up 68 points in their last 2 games after allowing 17 points or less in 5 of their previous 6 games. Houston shouldn't have those kind of problems vs a Tennessee offense that is 24th overall (327.7 ypg) and 19th in scoring (21.6 ppg). The place where the Titans have really struggled this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee is 29th overall, allowing 391.3 ypg and 31st in points allowed, allowing 30.5 ppg. At home they have been even worse allowing 440 ypg and 33.6 ppg. The Titans are also 26th vs the pass and here comes a Houston squad that has put up 800 yards passing in the last 2 weeks. Tennessee has gone just 2-3 at home this year and have been outscored by 10.4 ppg in those games, while Houston has outscored their road opponents by 8.4 ppg. The Numbers just don't add up for Tennessee to be able to keep this one close. Houston by at least 2 TD's here. 
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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CHICAGO -3 over Seattle:Seattle has been a very good team at home this year (5-0), but on the road they have gone just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. Last week Seattle blew a lead late vs Miami and it was the 4th time this year they blew a 4th quarter lead. Not a good late game ball club. The Seattle offense hasn't been that great overall, but it has been even worse on the road, where they have averaged just 302.5 ppg and 16 ppg on the year. Now that is not good at all, especially when you're about to face a Chicago defense that has been very very good at home, allowing just 290.8 ypg and a mere 13 ppg. The Chicago offense hasn't been that strong at home, averaging just 23.2 ppg, but they did put up 28 points last week and Cutler looks like he's ready for a late season run as he hit 23 of 31 passes for 188 yards in the win. This Chicago defense has been as difference maker this year and they should be able to pressure young Wilson into some mistakes. I just don't think Seattle has enough offense in them to keep this one close.POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY---  Play On any Home team that averages 23-27 ppg if they scored 24+ points in the first half last week and are playing a good team that allows between 14-18 ppg. Teams in this spot are 24-4 ATS since 1983.
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Tampa Bay/ Denver Over 50.5: The Tampa offense has been very hot of late as they have averaged 32.3 ppg in their last 7 games and they have averaged 29.8 ppg on the road this year. This is a team that is really starting to air it out allot more and they have been able to thanks mostly to a running game that has been pretty solid this year, ranking 11th in the league. A good running game will get the play action pass going for some big plays down field and it has helped Tampa get some big plays as they are 4th in the league in yards per pass attempt, ranking 4th at 7.7 ypa. They will be taking on a solid Denver defense, but also one that has struggled vs good offenses this year, allowing San Diego to put up 23 and 24 points vs them, Houston and New England to put up 31 and Atlanta to get 27. The Broncos can be scored on and Tampa will need to do that if they hope to keep this one close.  For Denver their offense has been clicking all year. they did score just 17 vs KC last week, but that was a flat spot for them and in their previous 5 games they hit the 30 point mark in all 5. Denver has also scored 31.4 ppg at home.  With Manning at the helm the Bronco passing game is 6th in the league and they are also 2nd in the league in yards per attempt (7.8). Another offense that gets allot of big plays and they should once again vs a weak Tampa defense that is last in the league vs the pass (315 ypg) and 2nd to last in yards per attempt (8.1). Both teams are primarily passing teams, but they do use the run to set up nice play action passes for big plays and I see that happening here. This one should be a shootout.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

EZ Money Picks
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New England Patriots   
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First, let's look at the turnover differential (TO DIFF) for both teams. New England has a +24 TO DIFF (8 giveaways), while Miami has a -10 TO DIFF (21 giveaways). The Patriots' ability to take care of the football and create turnovers is going to be a huge problem for Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown 5 more interceptions than TDs this season.
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New England's offense is out of control! They rank 1st in the NFL in both yards per game (435.8 YPG) and points scored (37 PPG). Interestingly enough, the Dolphins rank 26th in both those same categories. Miami averages 321.3 YPG and 19.2 PPG.
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New England has been on fire as of late. They have beaten their last 4 opponents by an average of 27.25 points. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to cover here. Take the New England Patriots ATS for EZ MONEY!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

NFL Betting  Picks

6-Point Teaser - Chargers +7.5 & Redskins +8.5

This teaser covers the basic teaser strategy of crossing over key numbers of 3 and 7, and in this teaser we have two home teams now getting over 7 points as they are both small underdogs. The Chargers play host to the Cincinnati Bengals who are 6-5 on the season and 3-2 on the road. San Diego is coming off a rough overtime loss to the Ravens and have dropped to 4-7 and 2-3 at home. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, while the Bengals have won three straight. Although that doesn't look too good, you have to realize that 2 of the Bengals 3 wins have come against Oakland and Kansas City (two of the worst AFC teams) and that they had lost 4 straight games before that. Also note that the Bengals three road wins have come against KC, Jacksonville, and Washington (with losses to Cleveland and Baltimore). The Chargers have lost some close games to good teams, including losing to Baltimore by 3, @Denver by 7, @Tampa Bay by 10, and @New Orleans by 7. The Bengals have the edge on offense scoring just over 3 more ppg than the Chargers, while San Diego has a slight edge allowing 1 less papg. The Bengals are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs AFC opponents, while the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents and 6-2 ATS following an ATS loss. If the Bengals can pull off a big road win I can't see it being by more than a touchdown, and I think Chargers +7.5 is a safe play for the first leg of the teaser. In the second leg of the teaser we back the Redskins who host the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Giants are 7-4 on the year after a big win vs the Packers last week, while the Redskins are 5-6 after a big win themselves on Thanksgiving Day vs the Cowboys. These two teams have already met this season in New York, with the Giants escaping with a 27-23 victory in a game that Washington could have won. Although Washington has 6 losses only one has been by more than 8 points. Rookie QB RG3 has turned this team's offense into one of the best in the league ranked 7th and averaging 26.8 ppg. Note that the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Redskins are also 4-0 ATS in these two teams last 4 meetings. With the Giants coming off a huge emotional victory at home I look for the Redskins to take advantage and possibly upset the Giants at home. I like Washington +8.5 on the second end to complete this teaser.


Seahawks / Bears Over 37.5

We will see a good NFC game in Chicago this week as the 6-5 Seahawks head to take on the 8-3 Bears. Seattle is 6-5 overall but just 1-5 on the road, while the Bears are 5-1 at home. Rookie QB Russsell Wilson has shown improvements as the season has gone on, and the Seahawks have scored 21+ points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. The Bears offense has been held in check at times, but they've scored 21+ points 7 times this season, including 28 points at home last week vs the Vikings. The Seahawks defense was once ranked 1st in the league, but they've allowed 21+ points against in 4 of their last 6 games. Note that the Bears are averaging 25.2 points per game and the Seahawks are averaging 19.9 ppg. The OVER is 20-7 in the Seahawks last 27 v a team with a winning record, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games following a loss, and 39-19 in their last 58 games on grass. The OVER is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 9- 3 in their last 12 games following a victory. These two teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 38-14 in Chicago, easily going OVER the 34.5 total. They also met in the playoffs in the previous year with Chicago winning 35-24 also going way OVER the total. In fact you'd have to go back 8 games to 2003 to find the last "under" between these two teams, which was actually a 41 point game. The OVER is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Although we do have two good defenses in this game both teams have shown they can put up points and they play each other to the OVER.


Indianapolis Colts +4.5

The Colts enter this week's game vs the Lions with a solid 7-4 record, although they are just 2-3 on the road. Two of their three road losses have come against good teams in New England and Chicago, while the other was against the Jets (wins vs Jacksonville and Tennessee on the road). The Lions are just 4-7 entering Sunday's game after making the playoffs last year. They are just 2-3 at home with wins against St Louis and Seattle and losses vs Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston. Note both wins at home came down to the wire and they could easily be 1-4 or even 0-5 at home this year. The Lions road wins have come against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, which makes their resume even less impressive this year. With that said Detroit still has a solid offense ranking 2nd in the league in yards per game, and scoring 24.3 ppg. The Colts surprisingly aren't far behind ranked 6th in the league and scoring 20.9 ppg. Defensively these two teams match up closely with the Lions ranked hi gher overall, but the Colts allowing just under one point against less per game. With the Colts being led by Rookie QB Andrew Luck, who hasn't proved himself on the road I expected Detroit to be small favorites at home, but I think we have good value taking the Colts +4.5 on Sunday. Indianapolis is playing good football right now scoring 20+ points in 4 straight games, while giving up 13 points or less in 4 of their last 6. They've won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Detroit has put up good numbers on offense lately, but they've given up 24+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and have lost 3 straight and 4 of 6. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. The Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Take Indy plus the points.

Houston Texans -6

The Houston Texans enter this one 10-1 and leading the AFC. They are a perfect 5-0 on the road, and they've won 5 straight games. Their only loss of the season came at home vs Green Bay where they were beat 42-24, but other than that they've been great covering the spread in 7 of their 11 games this season. The Tennessee Titans are 4-7 on the year, and 2-3 at home. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games and most recently a 24-19 loss against the then one win Jaguars last weekend in Jacksonville. On paper this game is a huge mismatch with the Texans ranked 3rd in offense and scoring 29.7 ppg, while the Titnas are 24th ranked on offense and scoring 21.6 ppg. Defensively the Texans are ranked 6th and are allowing jsut 19.2 papg, while the Titans are ranked 29th and allowing 30.5 papg. These two teams met in Houston on September 30th, with the Texans winning 38-14 easily covering the 13 point spread. So why are the Texans favored by less than a touchdown? Some may consider this a let down spot for Houston who had a big win vs Detroit last week on Thanksgiving Day and are approaching a Monday Night match up with the Patriots. I don't think the Texans are over looking this one, as last season they lost three straight to finish the regular season and found themselves in an AFC Wildcard game. They know the importance of each game, and would love to head to New England next week 11-1. Note that the Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional opponents, and 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Titans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record, and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Houston is 3-1-1 ATS in these two teams last 5 meetings. I can't see the Texans playing soft this week, and if they should get by the Titans by at least a touchdown. Take Houston -6.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Green Bay
Pick: Under 46.5

The Packers' offense was just about flawless last year, while the defense was about as bad as it gets. Having Aaron Rodgers at QB automatically makes the Packers an expected OVER team, but a lot has changed since last season. The Packers' offense has gone down 15 slots from one of the best in the league to No. 18 and in the bottom half this season. On the season, they are averaging 10 fewer points scored per game. The defense has gone from dead last up to No. 18. So the offense has slipped 15 spots and the defense has risen 14. This is clearly not the same team, and Rodgers is taking a beating, having been sacked 37 times already. The Packers OL is in real trouble and Jared Allen is certainly licking his chops for this one. Percy Harvin is a valuable player for the Minnesota offense on returns and lining up just about anywhere on offense, but he has missed the last two games, and will be hobbled or out for this one. This game sets up to be a lot more defensive than most expect, especially being an important game for both within the division. These teams are not constituted as they were offensively a year ago, and the Packers are going to get a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings will also put a lot of pressure on Rodgers which will limit the offense. Meanwhile, the Packers defense will be out to show they aren't as bad as they looked last week vs. the Giants. Play this one on the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

David Chan

Phoenix vs. New York
Pick: Phoenix

Phoenix is 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS; it's lost two in a row SU/ATS, including a 101-97 setback at Toronto on November 30th. Goran Dragic is averaging team highs of 15.6 points and 6.6 dimes; he's totaled 23 points and six helpers over the past two games. It's interesting to note though that Phoenix is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.

New York is 11-4 SU/ATS; it's won two in a row, including a 108-87 victory over Washington on November 30th.

Carmelo Anthony had 20 points.

Note that both Jason Kidd and Amare Stoudemire will be sitting this one out once again.

Pablo Prigioni has gotten 19 points and 12 assists over the Knicks two game win streak in place of the injured Kidd.

Note though that New York is in fact just 1-2 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more.

The Suns have won three straight in this series. While an outright victory isn't likely, I absolutely feel that the desperation that Phoenix will play with here is a legitimate factor that the oddsmakers have overlooked.

I believe New York comes in a bit complacent, and gets caught "looking ahead" to its two whole days off before a back to back road set vs. the Bobcats and Heat later in the week, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the visitors to sneak through in the process; consider a second look at Phoenix in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Bruce Marshall

Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
Pick: Over

Now that Chad Henne seems to be giving J'ville some serviceable work at QB, and the Jags have learned to live without the injured MJD, Mike Mularkey's offense has enough spark to help the "over" on the "totals" side.  Mularkey will also be game-planning up a storm against his former employer Bills, who have been "over" 17-11 their last 28 games.  Play Jaguars-Bills "Over"

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Matt Fargo

Seattle vs. Chicago
Pick: Seattle

Seattle comes into this game following a loss at Miami last week as the Seahawks twice blew touchdown leads. They are now 6-5 on the season and while they would be in the playoffs should they have started this week, they are far from safe.

While it is a little early to be talking about a must win in their case, this is still a pretty big game and a loss could go a long way. In the same token, a win can go a long way as well with three of the final four games of the season after this being divisional matchups.

Chicago got off to an early lead against Minnesota last week and coasted to an 18-point victory. Still, the Bears weren't exactly at the top of their game once again which has actually been the case a lot this season. Chicago, despite being 8-3, is getting outgained on the season by 8.5 ypg which may not seem like a lot but for a team that is five games above .500, it is a significant amount and one that should especially not be negative. The pubic has bought in though and this line shows it.

Seattle should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Chicago has struggled on offense as it is 30th in the league overall and the 35 sacks allowed are the third most in the NFL. The Seahawks should have no issues getting to quarterback Jay Cutler as they have produced 29 sacks which is tied for ninth most in the league. Making matters worse, the Bears lost guards Chris Spencer and Lance Louis to knee injuries last week and could be extremely thin on the offensive line.

On offense, expect the Seahawks to feature a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch and the running game. He is having an outstanding season and after watching Minnesota's Adrian Peterson gash the Bears for 108 yards on 18 carries in Week 12, Seattle knows the Bears defense is vulnerable. The rushing defense has been poor all season as Chicago is allowing 4.3 ypc which is 19th in the NFL and this includes giving up 5.3 ypc over its last four games. The Bears have allowed 114 or more yard in five straight games.

You would think that road teams coming off a road loss would not fare well but that is not the case at all as throughout the league we play on road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss, in the second half of the season. This situation is 102-50 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, we are seeing some reverse line movement in this one as the public is burying Chicago yet the line has come down to a field goal after opening at -4.5 is many places.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Larry Ness

New England vs. Miami
Pick: Over

The New England Patriots can clinch their NINTH East title in 10 seasons by beating the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. They are 28-6 in AFC East play over the past six seasons, winning eight in a row since a loss at Buffalo in Week 3 of 2011. The most lopsided victory in that recent stretch came on Thanksgiving night with a 49-19 rout of the New York Jets at Met Life Stadium. The Patriots broke the game open by tying a franchise record with 35 points in the second quarter, including three TDs in a span of 52 seconds, en route to their fifth win in a row. The Patriots have the NFL's best offense, averaging 435.8 YPG and 37.0 PPG on the season and in their five-game winning streak, are averaging 43.8 PPG with Tom Brady throwing 14 TDs and not a single INT in 177 attempts (his TD-to-INT ratio for the season is 24-3). New England’s added a dangerous ground game this season (team’s best in three decades), averaging 143.7 YPG on 4.3 YPC. Ridley has come out of nowhere to gain 939 yards on 4.6 YPC. The Patriots' offense has turned the ball over a league-low eight times, while the 32 turnovers created by the defense ranks only behind Chicago's 33 (plus-24 TO margin is an NFL-best). New England has forced 16 turnovers while giving it away twice during its five-game winning streak. The Dolphins ended a three-game losing streak with a 24-21 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday and while it hardly seems like it, the Dolphins are only a game behind Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for the AFC's final playoff berth. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has shown signs he can play in this league but overall, numbers never lie. He’s got just seven TDs and 12 INTs on the season for a 72.9 QB rating (ranks 31st). Reggie Bush had a breakout season last year but has just 662 rushing yards this season, gaining more than 100 yards just once, with a 172-yard effort vs Oakland in Week 2. In NINE of his other 11 games he’s gained 70 yards or less, FIVE times not reaching 50. Tannehill needs a running game to survive and he’s NOT getting it. This will be Belichick’s first look at Tannehill. That should spell bad news for the rookie. Belichick came into this season with a 10-3 record vs rookie QBs in a first meeting, holding them to 54% and an 11-21 ratio. However, up at Seattle in Week 6, against rookie Russell Wilson, the Pats let a 23-10 lead slip away in the final 7 1/2 minutes of the game, as Wilson was 16-of-27 for 293 yards with three TDs and no INTS. However, in Week 11, Belichick took on this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Andrew Luck, for the first time and it was “business as usual.” Luck did throw for 334 yards but he had three INTs (two returned for TDs) and a 63.3 QB rating for the game. Belichick (plus Brady) vs Tannehill just doesn’t seem like a fair fight. I fully expect the Pats to cover but why not also play this game over? The Pats went “under” in Weeks 1 & 2 but have since seen their last NINE games go “over!” Why would that streak end here?

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Chris Elliott

Tampa Bay vs. Denver
Pick: Over

Denver QB Peyton Manning faces the worst pass defense in the NFL Sunday while Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman has taken his game to another level this season with 2,761 yards 21 TD and a 94.3 QB rating. Manning has been tearing up the league with 3,260 yards, 26 TD and a 104.8 QB rating with one of the most effective quick strike attacks in the league. Look for Manning to exploit the Bucs defense that gives up 315.5 YPG in the air.
Bucs games have been full of scoring for most of the season with the Over cashing 7-3-1 to date. The offense is averaging 365.4 yards per game to go along with 28.2 PPG. Running back Doug Martin has had a massive rookie season with 1,050 yards and 9 TD. Overall in 2012 the Bucs defense has allowed 397.1 total YPG and 23.1 PPG. Bucs games have averaged a total of 51.3 PPG. The Bucs have the worst ranked pass defense in the league and to make matters worse, CB Eric Wright has been suspended for 4 games while top corner Talib was traded to New England last month.

The Denver Broncos have won 6 consecutive games and are now an excellent 8-3 on the season to lead the AFC West by 4 games. John Elway certainly knew what he was doing in the offseason targeting future first ballot hall of famer Peyton Manning. Manning has exceeded all expectations to date with 3,260 yards, 26 TD and a 104.8 QB rating.

Top RB Willis McGahee has been placed on the injured reserve with a knee injury, however the Broncos have depth at the position with youngsters, 2012 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman, 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno and undrafted Lance Ball. The Broncos are 3rd in the NFL scoring an average of 28.9 PPG and 4th in total yards with 391.8. On defense they are allowing 20.8 PPG while averaging a total of 49.7 PPG. Broncos games have gone Over this season 7-4 including 3-1 in the last 4.

Look for the QBs to make plays on Sunday as this game shoots Over the total. Good luck betting!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

John Ryan

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers    
Play: Green Bay Packers

The simulator shows a high probability that GB will win this game by 13 or more points. GB is banged up, especially on the OL. However, I don’t see Minnesota’s defense being able to exploit this fact. GB goes as Aaron Rogers goes and after last week’s pasting by the Giants, I am certain that he will have a very solid game. The Packers defense has been steadily improving in the shadows of all the media focus on the Packer Ol and offensive output. Last year the Packers led the NFl in PPG and this season they are 13th averaging 24.8 PPG. This is misunderstood, in my opinion, and the media is missing the boat on the more balanced offensive attack that is well supported by a much improved defensive unit. Last season, the Packers had to put up points and hope to outscore their opponent. This year, Rogers has the luxury, of not having to win the game all by himself. So, it is still true that the Packers are dependent on Rogers to win games, but not dependent on him to score 35 points per game. GB ranks eighth in the NFL converting 42% of their third down situations and fourth scoring a TD 63% of all red zone possessions. By comparison, the Vikings rank 25th converting 34% of their third conversions and 19th scoring a TD on 50% of their red zone possessions. Moreover, Rogers will be going up against a Vikings pass defense thank ranks 24th allowing 64% pass completions. Take the Packers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Dave Price

Oakland Raiders +2.5

This is a big letdown spot for the Browns following last week's big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be in extreme bounce-back mode following four consecutive losses. Plays on home underdogs or pickems off a road blowout loss of 14 points or more, in the month of December, are 74-34 ATS since 1983. The Browns are 0-5 on the road this season and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. They have been a solid investment against good teams but are 0-6 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 18.2 to 15.3. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings with 2 of those, including last season's 24-17 victory, belonging to the Raiders. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Jeff Alexander

Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5

The Steelers won't have Big Ben, but they have the defense to keep this one within the number. They played the Ravens to a 13-10 game two weeks ago as they held them to just 200 yards. Close games have been a staple in this series with 6 of the last 8 meetings being decided by 3 points. And get this. Pittsburgh has won or played the Ravens to a 3-point game in 10 of the last 11 matchups. Grab the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers keep inventing new ways to blow leads in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Look for more of the same as surging Cincinnati pays a visit to San Diego. The Bengals get my vote today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Andy Iskoe

San Francisco -7

These teams played to a rare tie in San Francisco 3 weeks ago. 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has shown to be an excellent head coach and has been making all the right decisions, including inserting second year QB Colin Kaepernick into the lineup to replace an effective but limited Alex Smith. The Rams have made strides under first year coach Jeff Fisher but as we get deeper into the season the lack of overall talent and depth has become apparent. The Niners enjoy statistical and fundamental edges on both sides of the football and should wear down the Rams in the second half.  Specifically, San Francisco has allowed the fewest points in the league (14.1 per game) and has the # 2 rushing offense (163 ypg) and the # 4 rushing defense (91 ypg).  The Niners also possess the # 2 passing defense (187 ypg) and an offense that has lost only 11 turnovers all season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Joe Gavazzi | NFL Side

Seattle +3 ½

Injuries to Chicago RB Forte and WR Hester severely compromise the Bears chances in this one. Though QB Cutler returns, the Bears suffered multiple injuries in their 28-10 victory against Vikings. Most notable, are those in the OL which leave guards Williams, Spencer and Louis ailing for this week's action. That is bad news for the Bears against a fierce Seattle pass rush which is among NFL leaders with 29 sacks. Bears have played a relatively easy schedule. Their 3 losses have come against the tough defensive fronts of GB, Houston and SF. In those three games, the Bears scored a total of just 23 points. Last week, we lost the 4% LTS play on the Seahawks when a roughing the passer penalty wiped out a game changing interception in the end zone, which would have given Seattle a probable victory. Though the Seahawks are not as potent offensively on the road where they average just 16 PPG, we cannot ignore their history in this role, which finds them to be 16-2 ATS, 11-1 ATS and 5-0 ATS as underdog. Combined with their advantages at the point of attack the outright victory is the probable outcome in the eyes of this bureau.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Charlie Scott

Cardinals vs. Jets
Play:Over 36.5

This looks like an old fashioned ugly game with an old low Total. We haven't seen many 36 Totals lately in the NFL. The Cards will start a 3rd string Rookie QB to replace an ineffective Skelton vs the Jets Sanchez with NO Tebow. AZ is 3-1 OVER 36 their last 4, While the NYJ are 9-2 OVER 36 this season. I expect some Defensive TD's, Bad Teams can make You money ! PLAY OVER !

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 2

Scott Delaney

As for your free play for Sunday, I want you playing the Philadelphia Eagles plus the 10-1/2 points in Dallas. This isn't about what the Eagles can do, it's more about what the Dallas Cowboys are failing to do.

Sure, we have two different brands of football - one that has seemingly called it quits on the season, and another that approaches each week looking to make a run at the postseason. But the latter team in that statement - the Pokes, it tends to give in during games, and that's why it's having another disappointing season.

I refuse to buy into any sort of philosophy the Cowboys are selling, from this point forward, and as long as Jason Garrett is the head coach. He doesn't come across as one, he doesn't act like one and the team certainly does not respond to him like one.

So while there are many who are questioning the Eagles' leadership, or lack thereof, I think the Cowboys are in the same boat and just aren't as banged up as Philly.

The Cowboys are mired in ATS slides of 5-16 against the NFC, 3-9 against losing teams, 2-8 in intradivision play and 1-5 in December. I think Dallas should win this game, but it'll be so ugly, and it'll stay under double digits.

Look for this to fall around 24-20

3♦ PHILADELPHIA

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