Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Rob Vinciletti

South Carolina vs. Clemson    
Play: Clemson

Clemson has Double revenge here. They fit a nice scoring system that plays on home teams that are not favored by more than 24 that have scored 150 or more in their last 3 games. Clemson has a 170+ yard edge on offense and is 18-2 here at home. South Carolina is just 2-2 on the road. Clemson is 4-1 straight up and ats vs winning teams this season and will likely get the win and cover here tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Bobby Conn

Oregon vs. Oregon State    
Play: Oregon State

This is a lot of points for a rivalry game and I feel comfortable taking them. Oregon State has a similar defense to Stanford's, which shut the Ducks down last week and picked up the outright win. The Beavers are good enough to force Oregon into long third downs, which caused Oregon problems last week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Dave Cokin

UL - Monroe vs Florida International
Pick: UL - Monroe

UL-Monroe has had a very solid year and after a real rough run of injuries, they will come into this contest about the healthiest they've been in awhile. FIU is a bit of a disappointment overall, and that's why they're home dogs here. I'm still not buying the Panthers, so I'm opting for UL-Monroe minus the points this week.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Joe Gavazzi

South Carolina +4

South Carolina All the public sees is the high scoring Clemson offense, the 7 game win streak and the 34-13 revenge mark from this LHG Clemson team. What you should see is an SEC Defensive Dandy (against an ACC favorite) who is 3-0 SU in the recent series winning by an average of 20 PPG. You never go far from wrong playing underdogs of this nature in rivalry games. Combine a strong series history, a team whose played the harder schedule and the far better defense and you've got an outright underdog winner that will have you going to bed with a smile on your face.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Andy Iskoe

Minnesota / Michigan St. Under 39.5

This game has all the makings of a low scoring contest between a pair of struggling offenses.  Favored Michigan State needs a win here to become Bowl eligible and will rely on its defense to compensate for a below average offense.  In fact both teams have weak offenses with MSU ranking # 95 and Minnesota # 104 in total offense.  Michigan State also ranks # 110 in scoring offense and Minnesota ranks # 101.  Aside from a 44 point blowout against Purdue last month, Minnesota has scored in its other 7 most recent games.  Michigan State has not fared much better, scoring 24 points or less in 9 of 11 games and 17 points or less 6 times.  Both teams have solid defensive stats, ranking # 7 and 27 in total defense and # 10 and 39 in scoring defense.  Based on what these teams have accomplished this season it may take no more than 17 points to win this game.  My mathematical algorithm has 30 total points being scored which provides a variance of more than a touchdown from the current posted total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

RICH SPORTS

Wake Forest

Vanderbilt comes in after their big emotional win over the Volunteers last week. They are 7 – 4 and really have nothing to gain by winning this game. Wake Forest is coming off of back to back road losses to a mad NC State team and an Irish team that has National Title hopes. The Deacons need this win to become bowl eligible and have won this meeting 3 of the last 4 years.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Ross King

Florida vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State

Florida state 3-0 versus SEC teams the last 3 seasons and 7-3 at home versus Florida since 1992.Florida is 2-9 in November the last 3 seasons and 5-14 versus teams with a winning record.Take Florida state and lay the touchdown as your freeplay winner.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Charlie Scott

Michigan vs. Ohio State
Play: Under   

I know these 2 Coaches are new to this rivalry, However just for information purpose's this series has gone Under 54 in 4 of the last 5 games in this rivaly. Michigan has played 3 games with Teams similiar to Ohio St in talent and physical nature, The scores in those games are : vs Notre Dame 6-13, Michigan St 12-10 and Nebraska 9-23. Ohio St Coach Urban Meyer has stated his team does NOT have a vertical threat yet on offense, but he will recriut one. Look for an old time Michigan/Ohio St game where both teams focus on running the ball & clock.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

SPORTS WAGERS

Michigan +4½ -110 over OHIO ST.

Under Urban Meyer and with eligibility reinstated next year, Ohio State is sure to be a top-ranked program next season. Michigan's future under Brady Hoke, especially as long as ace defensive coordinator Greg Mattison sticks around, is looking very promising as well. Injuries to Denard Robinson and Fitz Toussaint have hindered the Wolverines' running game but Devin Gardner's emergence as a passer has given the aerial attack new life.

Michigan's offense has enough punch to complement a defense that doesn't allow many explosive plays. The Wolverines should be able to hold down an Ohio State offense that has hit a wall of late and has trouble sustaining long drives. At this point, Michigan is just a little deeper and further along than Meyer's Buckeyes and played a much tougher schedule this season that included Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Northwestern. OSU’s highest ranked opponent was Nebraska, who made it into the National rankings in Week 10. Even on the road, we much prefer the points in a game that that Michigan can win outright and will be considerably lower-scoring than last year's 40-34 shootout at the Big House.


DUKE +227 over Miami

Miami is self-imposing a second straight postseason ban on its football program because of an NCAA investigation that is expected to eventually lead to stiff sanctions against the Hurricanes. The decision, announced to players on Monday, described the mood as disappointing and shocking. It ends Miami's hopes of winning the Atlantic Coast Conference's Coastal Division, securing a berth in the league's overall championship game and any chance for the team to play in the Orange Bowl.

We could take the 6½ points being offered here but Duke’s chances of winning here may actually be better than Miami’s and may have been better even before the rug had been pulled from under them. It may seem like a Duke team that has lost three straight since clinching the program's first bowl appearance since 1994 was satisfied with its six wins but the losses were more a product of the recent competition (Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech). Now the Blue Devils draw the weakest foe they've seen since Week 6 and it's not one likely to bring its A-game. Duke remains motivated while the mental makeup of Miami is not a positive one. With a hefty reward being offered, we’ll go that route.


WAKE FOREST +11½ -105 over Vanderbilt

It's a textbook spot to fade the road favorite as Vanderbilt is coming off a huge win over Tennessee in a game it pointed to all season. Vandy now travels back to a stadium where it whipped Wake Forest 41-7 just last November. Something considerably less than the Commodores' best effort is practically assured here and that's reason enough to get on board with a Wake team needing a win for bowl eligibility and a coach who has cashed better than two-thirds of his career opportunities as a home underdog.

Wake has played a tough schedule that included games against Notre Dame, N.C. State, Clemson and Florida State. The Deacs pretty much knew they had no shot last week in South Bend and undoubtedly were looking ahead to this game for their last chance at a Bowl game. Seldom will we endorse a club that we don’t think can win the game on the square. Wake could not have asked for this one to set up any better and that’s when big upsets occur. While the money line is tempting, the prohibitive points trumps that play here and we’ll gladly accept them in this ideal spot.


FLORIDA ST/Florida under 43 -105

Florida has no vertical passing game, no offensive linemen up to the task of blocking Florida State's ferocious defensive front and no real offensive weapons outside of Mike Gillislee. Against Florida State's defense, it's hard to see this group accomplishing anything out of their defective offense that hasn't topped 315 yards or 16 first downs in any of its past four FBS games.

The Seminoles don't figure to light up the scoreboard either, though they should improve on last year's pitiful seven-first down, 95-yard showing in the Swamp. Florida State does at least have experienced talent and health at the skill positions but that doesn’t mean points on the board. The Gators don’t figure to put points on the board to aid the over while the Seminoles are likely to be in the 17-21 range, keeping this one well under the number throughout.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Timothy Black

Notre Dame vs. USC    
Play: USC

USC is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles and the Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall in the series with Notre Dame. USC has a lot of talent on offense and they will put some points on the board against the tough Irish defense.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Patrick Webb

Tulsa vs. SMU    
Play: Over 50

Tulsa is a very complete team boasting a very solid defensive unit, an outstanding trio of runners in Douglas, Watts, and Alexander (combined for 2,220 rushing yards and 27 rushing TDs) and competent QB play from Nebraska transfer Cody Green (13/8 TD to INT). SMU is a much stronger team offensively at home scoring 36.8 ppg, but are giving up nearly 30 ppg. I look for this total to be surpassed early in the third quarter due to the ability for both teams to generate explosive plays on the ground, excellent football weather, and smart offensive design from each coaching staff.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

CLEMSON -3.5 over South Carolina: This Clemson offense is unstoppable right now as they have averaged 47.8 ppg in their last 7 games. At home they have averaged 518 ypg and 47.5 ppg, while outscoring their opponents by 22.5 ppg, in going 6-0 on their home field. I know that SC has a very tough SEC defense, but they did struggle vs the potent passing attack of the Volunteers and I expect them to struggle in this one as well. Defensively the Tigers will not be confused with an SEC defense, but they have played pretty well at home, allowing just 22,3 ppg. Overall the SC Defense has allowed just 17.5 ppg, but a bit more on the road at 24.3 ppg. The SC offense really misses Lattimore as they need balance to make their offense effective. They have scored 31.3 ppg on the year, but just 16 ppg in their last 2 road games and they struggled on offense vs FCS foe Wofford last week, in a game in which they scored just 24 points. I just don’t see the Gamecocks coming up with enough points to keep this one close. KEY TREND--- Clemson is 11-2 ATS after scoring 21 or more points 2 games in a row the last 2 years. 

3 UNIT PLAYS     

Florida/ Florida State Under 44: These two defenses have been awesome this year and with this being such a huge game for both teams I just don’t expect the offenses to take too many chances vs these very tough stop units. The Gator defense is the engine that drives this team as they have allowed just 281 ypg and 11.7 ppg on the year. The Gators also have one of the best pass defenses in the nation, allowing just 185 ypg through the air and I feel this stellar secondary will be able to slow down the Noles passing game in this one. The Florida offense has been very average this year and very conservative and I just don’t see allot of points from them vs a Noles defense that has allowed just 236.1 ypg and 13.1 ppg on the year. At home this Noles defense is even stingier, allowing just 198.8 ypg and 9 ppg. This game has defensive battle written all over it.


Oklahoma/ Oklahoma State Over 71.5: This should be a fun one. The Cowboys started the year by putting up 84 points and they haven't let up that much averaging 47.5 ppg on the year. They have put up 114 points in their last 2 games and will be taking on an Oklahoma defense that has struggled of late. The Sooners come in allowing 370.5 ypg and 22.5 ppg on the year, but in their last 3 games they have allowed a whopping 497 ypg and 34.3 ppg. Oklahoma State should put up big numbers on this defense. On the other side we have an Oklahoma offense that is clicking right now, as they have put up 571.7 ypg and 42.3 ppg in their last 3 games. In that span the Sooners have averaged 412 ypg through the air and will face a beat up OSU defense that has allowed 325 ypg passing in their last 3 games. Oklahoma averages 42.3 ppg at home, while OSU allow 39 ppg on the road. The Punters can take the day off in this one.


Michigan State/ Minnesota Under 39.5: This Minnesota offense has been awful the last 7 weeks as they have scored more than 17 points just once over that stretch. In their last 3 games the Gophers have averaged a paltry 253.7 ypg and 14.7 ppg and those numbers will not improve vs this tough Michigan State defense. The Spartans always have a tough defense and this year is no exception as they come in allowing just 289.4 ypg and 16.9 ppg, while on the road they have been even better, allowing just 269.5 ypg and 14.8 ppg. This is a tough defense that should have little trouble in slowing down the Gophers. Offensively the Spartans have put up 365.7 ypg, but just 19.7 ppg and will be facing a Minnesota defense that has played well at home, allowing just 333 ypg and 20.7 ppg. The Gophers are also 14th in the nation vs the pass, allowing just 187.1 ypg through the air. Both teams run the ball a ton and that will help eat clock, but ultimately it will two solid defenses going up against a couple of weak offenses that will keep this one in the 20's.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

OREGON STATE +9.5 over Oregon: Ahh the Civil War and I will go with the dog here. The Oregon Ducks had their national title bubble burst last week and I see them coming out a bit flat in this one. Last week the Ducks had big problems vs a tough Stanford defense and they will face another tough defense in this one. The Oregon offense is predicated on the run as they have averaged 313 ypg on the ground this year, but the OSU front 7 is very tough as they come in allowing just 108.7 ypg on 3.5 ypc on the ground this year. Overall OSU has allowed just 345.1 ypg and 18.6 ppg, but at home they have been much stingier, allowing 273.2 ypg and a mere 12 ppg. They have all the tools to slow down Oregon here. The OSU offense has averaged a solid 29.6 ppg at home, while Oregon comes in allowing 28.8 ppg on the road.  I expect this to be a close gamed throughout with the Beavers having a shot at the outright upset in the end. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- PLAY AGAINST any favorite off a SU favorite loss from Game 7 out if it was their first loss of the season and they allow 20 or more PPG on the season, plus they are facing a foe with revenge. This play has gone 11-1 ATS since 1980.


TEXAS A&M -22 over Missouri: The Aggies have had a very special year and they have been led by Johnny football. They don't have allot to play for as far as the SEC title is concerned, but they will be looking to give Johnny a chance to pad his Heisman numbers, and that means allowing him to just go off. Florida, LSU and Alabama had problems containing him and I don't see Missouri faring much better here. They are beat up on defense and have allowed 546.5 ypg and 36.5 ppg in their last 2 games. This defense seems to be wearing down and going up against a hot QB with a fast paced no-huddle offense will not let the Mizzou defense get any better here. The Aggie defense has been very underrated this year as they have allowed just 21.9 ppg. They will take on a Missouri offense that did average just 12.4 ppg in their SEC games vs teams not named Tennessee and Kentucky. The Aggie coaching staff will give Johnny a shot at winning the Heisman and that means this game should be a blowout.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Bob Balfe

Purdue -5.5

This is it for Indiana, but Purdue has a shot at a bowl game today if they win. Indiana has played well considering their top quarterback went down early in the year. What has caught up with the Hoosiers is the lack of ability to stop the run. Purdue has looked good running the ball the last few weeks and the game plan here should be real simple. Run the ball 40 times. Indiana just does not have the linebackers this year to get off the field. Purdue has disappointed this year, but they do have a lot of experience on the defensive line that should create pressure on the Indiana Offense. Take Purdue.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 24

Harry Bondi

RICE +1 over UTEP

UTEP Head Coach Mike Price will be retiring following a 31-year career after today's game, but look for the Owls to spoil the party. After starting the season 1-5, Rice is playing its best football of the season, winning three straight games and four of five. The team needs a win today to become eligible for a rare bowl bid and they get it against a Miners team that had lost six of seven before pulling out a 34-33 win at winless Southern Mississippi last week. UTEP has covered just four of its last 20 games overall and will send its head coach out on a sour note today. Owls prevail!

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