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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday 11/22

NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday 11/22

HOUSTON (9 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 12:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WASHINGTON (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2012, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 8:20 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 150-111 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road   
Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Dallas   
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home against New England

Houston at Detroit
Houston: 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Detroit: 12-29 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas
Washington: 14-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams
Dallas: 13-4 Under when playing against a marginal losing team

New England at NY Jets
New England: 14-5 ATS in road games
NY Jets: 40-69 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road

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NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions

NFL Football takes center stage Thursday with Lions, Texans kicking things off at 12:30 EST in Detroit. Lions with their flickering playoff hopes dashed in a loss to the Packers last week must be dreading this contest. Lions have lost and failed to cover in each of their last eight Thanksgiving tilts losing by an average 21.5 points/game moving the mark to 2-10 (3-9 ATS) the past twelve years. When Dallas hosts Washington at 4:15 P.M. the Cowboys will be looking to improve a 7-5 (8-4 ATS) stretch playing on the holiday and will be looking to defeat Redskins a 7th straight time on Thanksgiving Day. The finale between Jets, Patriots features two teams that have had little Thanksgiving action with Jets posting a 1-1 SU/ATS record in it's two Turkey Day appearance the past twelve years while Patriots head into festivities at 2-1 SU/ATS all on the road over the same span of time. Good luck but above all have a safe and enjoyable holiday.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

The New York Jets snapped a three game losing streak this past week defeating Rams 27-13. 'Fly-Boys' have to consider themselves lucky escaping St Louis with a win. If it were not for Bradford's interception and two Ram fumbles Jet would have been grounded for a forth straight game. Meanwhile, Patriots behind Brady's 24-of-35 tosses, 331 yards, three TD's and a ground game churning out 115 yards, 2 TD's schooled the young Colts with an easy 59-24 victory. Patriots however lost Gronk in the process as he has a broken forearm. Still, Jets should return to losing ways as Patriots are 9-3 (10-2 ATS) in New York's back-yard since Belichick moved to New England and the Belichick/Brady era has seen the squad go a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS away in November vs a division foe, a smart 8-1 (6-3 ATS) on the road following a win by 30 or more points.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Inconsistent Cowboys needed a 38 yard field goal in OT to survive an upset bid by Cleveland this past Sunday. Cowboys may have avoided a humiliating loss to the lowly Browns but will they avoid one Thanksgiving day when RGII and the Washington Redskins pay a visit. Time will tell but one thing for sure, Cowboys pegged as 3.5 point favorites are in dangerous betting territory. Redskins enter the contest a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road dog after scoring 30 or more points, Cowboys come in 0-5 ATS hosting Washington, 5-14-1 ATS last twenty laying points and 2-9 ATS last eleven vs a division foes.

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Week 12 NFL

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6) —
Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5) — RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6) — Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

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NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Cheat Sheet

Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.

If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.

Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.

The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.

Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)

No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.

The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).

New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.

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Texans at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.

The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.

LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition


* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.


1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.

2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.

3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.

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Redskins at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.

Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.

LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.


* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.


1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.

3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.

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Patriots at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski.  In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.

The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.

LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.


* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.


1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.

2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.

3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.

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Turkey Tips
By Brian Edwards

Texans at Lions

Before sitting down to Thanksgiving lunch, gamblers will need to place their bets for this 12:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Ford Field in the Motor City. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Houston (9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by three with a minus-120 price. The total was 50½ points. Bettors can take the Lions on the money line for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

After losing three of its first four games, Detroit (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) won three of its next four and appeared poised to stay in postseason contention. However, the Lions have dropped back-to-back game and are now in desperation mode. They lost a 24-20 nail-biter vs. Green Bay last Sunday as 3½-point home underdogs. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 53½-point total.

In the loss to the Packers, Detroit took a 20-14 advantage with 4:25 remaining on a 27-yard field goal by Jason Hanson. However, Aaron Rodgers drove Green Bay down the field on a six-play touchdown drive to take the lead back. After committing a turnover, the Lions failed to cover when the Packers got a 39-yard field goal from Mason Crosby with 19 ticks left. Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions, including a 72-yard pick-six, and also coughed up a fumble. The Lions have given up seven touchdowns on returns this season, including punts, fumbles and interceptions.

Houston was fortunate to win outright as a 15-point home favorite vs. Jacksonville last week. The Texans twice trailed by double-digit margins in the second half, but they nonetheless railed to capture a 43-37 overtime win over the Jaguars. With 2:01 left in OT, Matt Schaub found Andre Johnson for a 48-yard scoring strike to provide the winning points. The Jags took the cash and the 80 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 40½-point tally.

Schaub completed 43-of-55 passes for 527 yards with five TD passes and two interceptions against Jacksonville. Johnson hauled in 14 receptions for 273 yards. For the season, Schaub has 18 TD passes compared to eight interceptions. Johnson has 60 catches for 870 yards and three TDs.

Houston RB Arian Foster has rushed for 949 yards and 10 TDs, but he’s been limited to a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. He rushed for 77 yards on 28 carries against the Jags.

Houston is third in the NFL in scoring, averaging 29.3 points per game. Also, the Texans are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up only 18.0 PPG.

Houston has won all four of its road assignments, compiling a 3-1 spread record. The Texans own an 8-7 spread record as road favorites during Gary Kubiak’s seven-year tenure.

To get an idea of how mistake-prone Detroit has been this season, consider these stats: The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense, averaging 401.7 yards per contest. However, they are just 15th in scoring with a 23.6 PPG average. In a similar vein, Jim Schwartz’s squad is 10th in total defense but 23rd in scoring defense (24.6 PPG).

During Schwartz’s four-year tenure, Detroit has gone 7-6 ATS as a home underdog. The Lions are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this year.

Totals have been an overall wash for Houston (5-5), but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its four road games. Meanwhile, the Lions have watched the ‘over’ go 6-3-1 overall, 2-2 in their home games.

CBS will provide television coverage.

Redskins at Cowboys

Most spots are listing Dallas (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a minus-120 price. The total is 48 and the Redskins are plus-155 to win outright (risk $100 to win $155).

Dallas lost for the fourth time in five games at Atlanta on Nov. 4, but the Cowboys have responded with two straight victories to get back into the hunt. They are only one game back of the 6-4 Giants for the lead in the NFC East.

Jason Garrett’s club won a 23-20 decision over Cleveland in overtime last week. Dan Bailey’s 32-yard field goal with two seconds left in regulation forced the extra session, and then Bailey buried a 38-yarder for the win with only 2:01 left in OT. The Cowboys failed to cover the number as seven-point home favorites, while the 43 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

Dallas veteran QB Tony Romo has completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 2,916 passing yards, but he has a mediocre 13/13 TD-INT ratio. Jason Witten is his favorite target, bringing in 73 catches for 636 yards and one TD.

Dallas has won outright in two of its four home games, but it is an abysmal 0-4 ATS.

Washington (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game losing slide by pounding Philadelphia by a 31-6 count as a 3½-point home favorite. Robert Griffin III produced a spectacular performance, connecting on 14-of-15 passes for 200 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. RG3 also rushed for 84 yards on 12 carries.

RG3 has been ‘as advertised,’ completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. The Baylor product has also rushed for 624 yards and six TDs.

Washington has lost three of its five road games but has managed a 3-2 spread record. The Redskins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs this year, 11-7 ATS in such spots during Mike Shanahan’s three-year tenure.

Dallas has won three straight and six of the last seven head-to-head meetings with Washington. However, the Redskins have covered the number in the last four encounters. In addition, the ‘Skins are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Dallas, 2-2 in its home games.

Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the ‘Skins, but they have seen the ‘over’ cash at a 3-2 clip in their five road contests.

The ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run in the last seven games of this storied rivalry.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

Patriots at Jets

Most books are listing New England (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Bettors can take the Jets to win outright for a plus-260 payout (risk $100 to win $260).

Bill Belichick’s squad has won four in a row and six of its last seven, including last week’s 59-24 shellacking of Indianapolis as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Tom Brady threw for 331 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rob Gronkowski made seven receptions for 137 yards and two TDs, but he broke his forearm in the fourth quarter and will miss the next several games.

On the bright side for the Pats, they’ll get their other stud tight end, Aaron Hernandez, back this week after he missed the last three games with an ankle injury.

Brady is enjoying another sensational season, throwing for 2,976 yards with a 21/3 TD-INT ratio.

New York (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) stopped the bleeding of a three-game losing streak with last week’s 37-23 win at St. Louis as a 3½-point underdog. Bilal Powell rushed for a pair of touchdowns and Marc Sanchez had one TD pass without committing a turnover.

For the season, Sanchez is completing only 53.5 percent of his passes with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio.

Since its first two games went ‘under,’ New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in eight consecutive games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the Pats’ five road assignments. They are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road.

Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Jets, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in their home games. They are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS at home.

During Rex Ryan’s tenure, the Jets own a 3-1 spread record as home underdogs.

The ‘over’ has hit in six straight head-to-head meetings between the Jets and Patriots.

NBC will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David

Due to the Thanksgiving Day slate this Thursday, bettors will be able to lock and load early in Week 12. We’ll recap last week’s action and go over the rest of the slate in our weekly Total Talk installment on Saturday. For now, let’s break down the three games on tap.

Houston at Detroit: The first game on the board isn’t an easy one and you could make sound arguments for either the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The opening line was 48 ½ and it’s been steamed up to 50½ at most outfits. Most gamblers have short-term memory and Houston’s 43-37 overtime win last Sunday over Jacksonville is probably in their head. Quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson both had career days for the Texans, yet they only put up 43 and nine of those points came in the extra session. What was very surprising was the play of Houston’s defense, which was diced up by Jaguars QB Chad Henne. Keep in mind that Henne did most of his damage on three plays, two of them going for long touchdowns (67, 81 yards).

Fortunately for the Texans, they won’t be playing a consistent attack this week. Detroit looks like it has firepower on paper with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, but this offense lacks a running game and any rhythm. At home, the Lions are averaging 24 points per game. If there is hope for Detroit’s offense to get going, you can look at its outputs against AFC South clubs. The Lions put up 41 against the Titans and 31 against the Jaguars this season, which was the two highest point totals for them this season. Despite the bad performance last week, the Texans’ defense is still ranked fourth in the league (299 YPG, 18 PPG) and they’ve stepped up on the road, allowing a total of 55 points in four games. After scoring 27 and 31 in its first two road games, Houston has only mustered up 23 and 13 the past two outings as visitors.

On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘under’ produce a 7-3 mark the past 10 seasons. The Lions have also lost nine of those games during that span.

Washington at Dallas: After watching its first four games of the season go ‘over’ the number, the Redskins have seen the ‘under’ rebound with a 5-1 mark in the last six games. Washington saw some 50-point totals posted early, which was a little surprising when you have a rookie quarterback (Robert Griffin III) under center. RG3 has proven to be effective, but the main reason for the high numbers is the Redskins defense, which is playing with crutches. Washington was hurt by the injury bug again last week as the unit lost safety Brandon Meriweather (knee) for the season. Also, the leader of the defense, linebacker London Fletcher (ankle), is ‘questionable’ too.

Dallas was hoping to get running back DeMarco Murray (foot) back in the lineup but his status is ‘doubtful’ for Thursday. That’s probably a good thing if you’re leaning ‘over’ because the Cowboys will most likely let Tony Romo attack an already decimated secondary if he can stay on his feet. Similar to Detroit, the ‘Boys look explosive on paper but the results aren’t there because the offensive line isn’t great. The best outing was 38 points against Philadelphia a couple weeks ago, and 21 came from the defense and special teams.

Last year, the total spilt in the two regular season meetings between the pair as they combined for 34 and 51 points. The total opened at 47 for this game and was bet up to 48. Dallas watched last year’s holiday matchup go ‘under’ in its win over Miami (20-19). The one thing you can say about the ‘Boys on Thanksgiving is that they do score and put on a show. It’s been 11 years since Dallas has been held under 20 points on Turkey Day.

New England at N.Y. Jets: This number opened at 50½ and is now being offered anywhere between 48 and 49 points, depending where you shop. Considering the Patriots can get to this number themselves, it’s certainly hard to argue an ‘under’ play here. New England’s offense leads the league in points scored (35.8) and yards (431.9) and the defense is starting to turn be opportunistic as well. Last week, the Pats ripped the Colts 59-24 and 21 of the points came from a pair of pick-six touchdowns and a punt return. After seeing the first two games of the season go 'under' the Pats have watched the 'over' cash in eight straight weeks.

Offensively, the Pats high-powered attack will be missing a key part this week against the Jets. Tight end Rob Gronkowski injured his forearm in last week’s win over the Colts. He’s out this week and possibly a few more games as well. Fortunately for the Pats, TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury. The offensive line also has some key injuries, in particular Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly. You couldn’t tell they missed last week’s game against Indy, who has a much better pass rush than the Jets.

New York gave New England a scare in mid-October, but fell short in a 29-26 defeat. QB Mark Sanchez played well (328 yards, 68%) in the loss despite having limited receivers and no running game. Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six straight in this series.

The last few weeks of Total Talk, we’ve been hitting on rematch games between divisional opponents. So far this season, the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 (80%) when teams meet in the second divisional battle. Before you run to the counter and bang the ‘over’ on this game, make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 24-10 (71%) in games played in primetime slots this season. Lastly, since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the six installments, including three in a row.

Fearless Predictions

If you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, we say be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Washington-Dallas 48

Best Under: Houston-Detroit 50 1/2

Best Team Total: Over Dallas 25 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Washington-Dallas 39
Under Houston-Detroit 59½
Under New England-N.Y. Jets 57

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