Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 18

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 18

DUNKEL INDEX

Indianapolis at New England
The Patriots are coming off a 37-31 win over Buffalo and look to build on their 20-6-1 ATS record in their last 27 games after allowing 30 points or more in the previous game. New England is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: New England (-9)

Game 411-412: Philadelphia at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.819; Washington 131.257
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.533; Detroit 132.313
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 55
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Arizona at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.083; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 12; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 136.290; Carolina 131.706
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-1); Over

Game 419-420: Cleveland at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.090; Dallas 136.507
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: NY Jets at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 131.712; St. Louis 130.668
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1;
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2);

Game 423-424: Indianapolis at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.891; New England 142.907
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 9; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Under

Game 425-426: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.085; Houston 138.245
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13; 36
Vegas Line: Houston by 16; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+16); Under

Game 427-428: Cincinnati at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 126.723; Kansas City 124.942
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: New Orleans at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.547; Oakland 125.594
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: San Diego at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.439; Denver 140.980
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7 1/2); Over

Game 433-434: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.929; Pittsburgh 137.073
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 435-436: Chicago at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 140.855; San Francisco 140.167
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 39
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5); Under

CFL

Toronto at Montreal
The Argonauts look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Toronto is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2)

Game 491-492: Toronto at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.464; Montreal 114.449
Dunkel Line: Even; 60
Vegas Line: Montreal by 5 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2); Over

Game 493-494: Calgary at BC (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 118.746; BC 125.650
Dunkel Line: BC by 7; 47
Vegas Line: BC by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-6 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Houston at LA Lakers
The Rockets look to take advantage of an LA team that is coming off a 114-102 win over Phoenix and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Houston is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7)

Game 701-702: Indiana at New York (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 119.910; New York 123.949
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4; 193
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7); Over

Game 703-704: Orlando at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.722; Toronto 116.845
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 5; 182
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 705-706: Cleveland at Philadelphia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.509; Philadelphia 117358
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Brooklyn at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 115.253; Sacramento 113.754
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 1 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3); Under

Game 709-710: Golden State at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 115.879; Oklahoma City 127.725
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 12; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 199
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-10); Under

Game 711-712: Boston at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.634; Detroit 114.139
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 713-714: Chicago at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.016; Portland 116.138
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago; Under

Game 715-716: Houston at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.157; LA Lakers 120.051
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over

NCAAB

Oklahoma State vs. NC State
The Wolfpack look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 non-conference games. NC State is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolfpack favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: NC State (-8 1/2)

Game 717-718: Valparaiso at Kent State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 58.902; Kent State 56.159
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 1
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (-1)

Game 719-720: Marshall at Hofstra (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 58.418; Hofstra 53.224
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 5
Vegas Line: Marshall by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+6 1/2)

Game 721-722: Miami (OH) at Louisville (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 51.156; Louisville 73.345
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 22
Vegas Line: Louisville by 24
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+24)

Game 723-724: UL-Lafayette at Boise State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 49.039; Boise State 59.733
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 12
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+12)

Game 725-726: Middle Tennessee State vs. Florida (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 63.401; Florida 75.660
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida by 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-10)

Game 727-728: Cornell at Wisconsin (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 53.210; Wisconsin 70.250
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 17
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+19 1/2)

Game 729-730: Richmond at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 62.252; Minnesota 73.863
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: NC-Asheville vs. Providence (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 50.370; Providence 56.317
Dunkel Line: Providence by 6
Vegas Line: Providence by 4
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-4)

Game 733-734: Akron vs. Penn State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 59.591; Penn State 57.446
Dunkel Line: Akron by 2; 135
Vegas Line: Akron by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+6); Over

Game 735-736: Massachusetts vs. Tennessee (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 60.163; Tennessee 62.445
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-1); Under

Game 737-738: Oklahoma State vs. NC State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 63.284; NC State 73.059
Dunkel Line: NC State by 10; 134
Vegas Line: NC State by 8 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 739-740: Norfolk State vs. UMKC (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 45.950; UMKC 45.741
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 2
Dunkel Pick: UMKC (+2)

Game 741-742: Albany vs. Loyola-MD (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 50.105; Loyola-MD 56.024
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 6
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-4 1/2)

Game 743-744: Washington vs. Ohio State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 65.900; Ohio State 76.419
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-8 1/2)

Game 745-746: Rhode Island vs. Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 53.615; Seton Hall 62.021
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 10
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+10)

Game 747-748: Boston College at College of Charleston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 51.216; College of Charleston 51.715
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 1
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 3
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+3)

Game 749-750: Auburn vs. Dayton (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 56.750; Dayton 62.067
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+6 1/2)

Game 751-752: St. John's vs. Baylor (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 62.625; Baylor 65.383
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 3; 148
Vegas Line: Baylor by 6 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+6 1/2); Over

Game 753-754: Murray State vs. Colorado (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 65.351; Colorado 65.503
Dunkel Line: Even; 136
Vegas Line: Colorado by 2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+2); Over

Game 755-756: MD-Eastern Shore vs. Loyola-Chicago (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 35.664; Loyola-Chicago 51.169
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 13
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-13)

Game 757-758: Western Michigan vs. South Florida (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 52.222; South Florida 60.998
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 9
Vegas Line: South Florida by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+10 1/2)

Game 759-760: Western Illinois vs. Yale (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 53.795; Yale 48.915
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 5
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-3)

Game 761-762: SE Missouri State vs. Chattanooga (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 50.067; Chattanooga 47.294
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 3
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (-1 1/2)

Game 763-764: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 58.713; Troy 48.701
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 10
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-8 1/2)

Game 765-766: WI-Green Bay vs. CS-Fullerton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 56.769; CS-Fullerton 52.985
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 4
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-2)

Game 767-768: Southern Utah at Nevada (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 44.239; Nevada 57.868
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+15 1/2)

Game 769-770: Siena vs. San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.928; San Diego 50.760
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+3)

Game 771-772: Northern Kentucky vs. CS-Northridge (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Kentucky 45.512; CS-Northridge 52.897
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Kentucky (+9 1/2)

Game 773-774: George Mason vs. New Mexico (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 61.779; New Mexico 64.636
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 3; 139
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 6 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+6 1/2); Over

Game 775-776: Quinnipiac vs. Connecticut (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 52.943; Connecticut 66.794
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 14; 127
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 10; 132
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-10); Under

Game 777-778: Nebraska-Omaha at Nebraska (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska-Omaha 42.809; Nebraska 55.564
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 13
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 15
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska-Omaha (+15)

Game 779-780: Portland at Montana State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 45.642; Montana State 47.842
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+3)

Game 781-782: IPFW at Eastern Illinois (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 44.580; Eastern Illinois 44.343
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: IPFW by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+6 1/2)

Game 783-784: New Mexico State at Niagara (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 56.685; Niagara 59.600
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 3
Vegas Line: Niagara by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-2 1/2)

Game 785-786: South Dakota at Gonzaga (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 45.190; Gonzaga 79.350
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 34
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 32
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-32)

Game 787-788: Northern Arizona at UC-Davis (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 38.578; UC-Davis 45.838
Dunkel Line: UC-Davis by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Davis by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (-6 1/2)

Game 789-790: Wofford at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 49.656; Ohio 66.698
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 17
Vegas Line: Ohio by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+18 1/2)

Game 791-792: Eastern Washington at St. Mary's (CA) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 46.046; St. Mary's (CA) 66.212
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 20
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+22 1/2)

Game 793-794: Belmont at Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 66.129; Stanford 69.484
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+6 1/2)

Game 801-802: Florida Gulf Coast at Duke (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Gulf Coast 54.366; Duke 73.423
Dunkel Line: Duke by 19
Vegas Line: Duke by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (+20 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 18

Accuscore

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit Lions

The Packers win this game 65% of the time and by double digits 38% of the time. The Lions have played poorly the past couple seasons against truly quality opponents, and have really struggled this season. Opposing quarterbacks against Detroit are having field days completing about two-thirds of their passes and nearly a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Lions just aren’t a good team this season. It might be time to stop waiting for that to happen.
Cleveland Browns +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys finally showed some life last week scoring 38 points in a big win over the Eagles, so why am I picking against them this weekend? Well for one, it was the Eagles who are the Titanic of this NFL season. Second, Dallas needed a punt return and interception return for scores in the fourth quarter to pull away late. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and should be healthy and rested for this game. They do have Trent Richardson in order to churn some rushing yards, and with the way Dallas has struggled with injuries to their own running backs, Cleveland could shorten the game by maintaining possession even without scoring too many points. AccuScore projects the Browns to cover 55 percent of the time.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 18

Ben Burns
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Calgary vs. BC Lions
Pick: Calgary
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While I respect the champs, I believe that this is quite a generous line on the visitors. The Stampeders won 41-21 the last time that these teams met, at Calgary on 10/26. Prior to that, in the most recent meeting at BC, the game was decided by five points, a 27-22 victory for the Lions on 10/6 ...
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Including that result, four of the last five meetings between these teams, here at Vancouver, have been decided by five or fewer points. (The other was a blowout win for Calgary.)
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The Lions eked out a cover in that 10/6 game, as the line was 4.5. However, the same score this time would result in a Calgary cover. Looking back further finds that the Stamps were a perfect 4-0 ATS their previous four trips here. Consider taking the points.

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Jacksonville vs. Houston
Pick: Jacksonville
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The rewards of success are often times measured in penalties and taxes. In the case of the Texans, the tax they pay today is having to lay more points in a game than they ever have in their franchise history. In 2009, in the throes of the first winning season in its expansion history, Houston reached the summit when they laid 14 points against the helpless Jaguars. An end-result 16-13 escape-win confirmed the difficulty in ‘getting up’ for a punching bag. Today, off Monday night’s grueling battle with the Bears, Garry Kubiak’s club is asked to continue its ascent against another club fighter. One who, by the way, is 2-0 ATS in its franchise history when taking 14 or more points (see Green Bay earlier this year). Tie all of that into Jacksonville head coach Mike Mularkey’s brilliant 8-0 ATS NFL career mark on the road in games off a loss, along with the Jags’ 15-5-1 ATS franchise record as a division road dog with revenge (13-2-1 ATS of late), and it comes as no surprise to see the Texans fall to 0-5-3 ATS as favorites in games off an upset win. Pay the fine and you lose. Take it to small claims court and you win. The choice is yours.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Jacksonville.

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Sean Murphy
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Green Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
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This may seem like a rather high total on first glance, but the fact is, we saw a considerably higher number when these two teams met on this same field last Thanksgiving (closed at 55). It's only the second-highest total we've seen in a game involving the Packers this season - the total closed at 54 points for their game against the Saints back on September 30th - a game that reached 55 points.
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The Packers were rolling along nicely leading up to their bye week, having scored 42, 30, 24, and 31 points in their last four games - all victories. The bye certainly hasn't thrown them off course in the last couple of years; in 2010 they put up 31 points in the week following, and last year scored 45 points in a wild victory in San Diego.
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There's a reason Green Bay is doing everything it can to get WR Jordy Nelson healthy for this contest. The Packers know that they're likely in for a fire-fight against a desperate Lions squad. Keep in mind, Green Bay is far from full strength on the defensive side of the ball - already missing Charles Woodson among others, they'll also likely be forced to go without Clay Matthews on Sunday.
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After sputtering in late September and early October, the Lions have turned things around offensively, scoring 83 points in their last three games, two of those performances resulting in wins. However, at 4-5 on the season, this is definitely a hungry football team. It's unlikely we'll see Detroit ease off the gas pedal one bit in this one, knowing that it will need a peak offensive effort to prevail.
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Let's give Lions QB Matt Stafford some credit, as he's completed over 67% of his passes for close to 1,000 yards, six touchdowns, and only two interceptions over his last three games. He's more than familiar with the Packers defense, but is used to be harrassed by guys like Woodson and Matthews. This is a game where he and WR Calvin Johnson - who is coming off a 200+ yard receiving day - should shine.
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Surprisingly enough, we haven't seen many shootouts between these two potent offenses in recent years, and that helps to keep the total in check this week. I'm confident the losing team will at least get into the 24-27 point range, and that sets us up well with the number currently sitting in the low-50s.

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Chris Elliott
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Indianapolis vs. New England
Pick: Over
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The Colts have been playing great Football led by their young phenom and a team winning for a cause. Coach Pagano's bout with leukemia and his emotional locker room speeches have put a charge into the Colts as they come into this game with a playoff bound 6-3 record. The team has won 4 straight games SU & ATS with QB Luck breaking a rookie record with an awesome 433 yards against Miami. They have won their last 2 road games, 27-10 at Jacksonville convincingly and 19-13 at Tennessee in OT.
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Andrew Luck has received praise from everyone around him for his poise, leadership, athletic ability and work ethic and it has shown on the field as the 1st overall pick is doing it with his arm and legs with 2,631 passing yards, 10 TD and 9 INT (2 last 4 games). On the ground he has run for 159 yards when needed with 5 TD but most importantly he is leading his team to victories. Luck has rejuvenated 34 year old WR Reggie Wayne's career with 931 receiving yards this season to rank 2nd in the NFL.
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The offense has posted 387.3 total YPG while the defense has allowed 350.6 total YPG. Colts games have averaged 43 PPG while the Over has cashed 3 out of 9 games this season.
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The New England Patriots are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. The team is 3-0 SU in their last 3 games however they are 1-2 ATS as they have failed to cover large spreads at Foxboro in B2B games. The Patriots have had little trouble moving the ball as they have posted 430.3 total YPG to rank #1 in the NFL. The defense however, has had little trouble letting opposing offenses move the ball as they have given up 382.1 YPG to rank #25.
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QB Tom Brady leads an awesome passing attack that ranks 7th in the NFL while the run game has been at its best in years averaging 146 YPG on the ground to rank 5th in the NFL. The team ranks #1 in the NFL in scoring with 33.2 PPG while the defense ranks 15th allowing 22.3 PPG for an average total of 55.5 PPG. The Pats have dictated the pace of games all season as the "Over" has cashed in 7 straight games!
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The Pats have made a season out of scoring a tonne of points while giving up their share on the defensive end. I expect this game to be close as Indy is playing inspired ball under the circumstances. Expect QB Luck to match QB Brady TD for TD in this tight, high scoring affair.

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Bryan Power
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Cincinnati vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
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As difficult as it may be to back the Chiefs, I'll do so as they are in a pretty good spot Sunday catching points at home against a Bengals team that will be in prime letdown mode after upsetting the Giants last week. Kansas City finally held a lead in regulation last week jumping out to a 10-0 over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football before succumbing in overtime.  But I think even with the short week, being back at home will provide a lift and a team that's admittedly been done in by turnovers all year is certainly capable of pulling the upset.
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Up until beating the Giants last week at home, the Bengals had shared KC's penchant for turning the ball over. Quarterback Andy Dalton in particular had turned it over multiple times in every game during the team's four game win streak. Last week was actually the first game all season that Dalton wasn't intercepted at least once.  This will also be the first time in five weeks that Cincinnati has hit the road.  It's dangerous for them to be laying points given their 0-2-1 ATS mark in the chalk role this season.  Two of those came against the Browns and the other against Miami.  One of the games against Cleveland was obviously on the road and the result was a 10-point outright loss.
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Kansas City, while 1-8 and coming off yet another tough defeat, still has pride to play for and certainly won't want to go the whole season without winning a single home game.  This represents one of their better opportunities for a win at Arrowhead Stadium.  They have played the AFC North heavyweights tough - losing to both the Ravens and Steelers by only a field goal.  No reason to think they can't compete with Cincinnati.

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Jimmy Boyd
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Washington Redskins -3.5
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The Eagles are really struggling. They have lost five in a row by an average of 9.6 points. Their last three losses have come by 13 points or more. They are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games and 1-7-1 against the spread on the season.
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Some teams are great investments in bounce back spots, but Philadelphia isn’t one of them. The Eagles, who lost 38-23 to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, are 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games following a loss and 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a loss of more than 14 points.
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The Eagles have been a turnover waiting to happen this season. They have committed 21 turnovers while forcing just 10. The Redskins, on the other hand, have committed just nine while forcing 16. The team that wins the turnover battle often wins the game.
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Washington is one of the better offensive teams in the NFL. It ranks seventh in total offense with 381.8 yards per game and 11th in scoring with 25.1 points per game. It should find success against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 30.5 points and 376.5 yards over its last four games.
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It should also be mentioned that the Redskins are on a 7-2 against the spread run versus NFC East foes. Lay the points.

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Bryan Leonard
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Indianapolis Colts +9½
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Two extra days to prepare for the Colts The last four weeks they played Jacksonville, Miami, Tennessee and Cleveland with only one victory by more than 4 points The last three weeks Indy has passed for 8.5, 8.7 and 7.5 yards per pass attempt The defense which looked so bad in the opener at Chicago has now gone eight straight games allowing 365 total yards or less These two have met each of the last six seasons with the Patriots never winning by more than 7 points and that was last year as a 20 1/2 point home favorite
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The Patriots have beaten only one team with a current winning record, Denver They won that game at home by 10 in a game with a +2 turnover margin New England has permitted 400 yards or better in 5 of 9 games, those not reaching 400 yards were Tennessee, Arizona, Seattle and St Louis The Patriots are on a 3-7 ATS run as home favorites They face divisional rival NY Jets on Thursday, the last time they faced the Jets they were forced to overtime

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Chargers / Broncos
Play: Over 48½
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Strong NFL system here and both of these teams are capable of scoring quickly and both have pass oriented offenses. 5 of the last 6 games between these two teams have gone over the posted total and I look for another shoot-out Sunday afternoon. The Over/Under is 100% perfect 5-0 in the Broncos last 5 games after they have held their opponents to less than 15 points in their previous game. The O/U is 7-1 for the Broncos in their last 8 games against an AFC opponent and both of these offenses are starting to get going at this point in the season. Take the Chargers/Broncos Game Total Over the posted number of 48.5.

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Steve Janus
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Houston Texans -14.5
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The Texans have had the exact opposite start to the season than the Jaguars. They lead the AFC with an overall record of 8-1 and come into this game having won three straight since that embarrassing loss to the Packers back in Week 6. Laying a big number with the Texans hasn’t been much of a problem so far this season. Houston has been favored by double-digits three times and they have won and covered in each of those games. It’s a big reason why the Texans are a very profitable 7-2 ATS this season.
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Even if the offense doesn’t show up to play in this game, there is good possibility the defense will be able to keep this Jaguars offense in check. Jacksonville is hands down the worst offensive team in the NFL. They rank 31st in passing offense at 184.8 ypg and 30th in rushing offense at 78.8 ypg. To no surprise, they are averaging a league-worst 14.1 ppg. The other huge factor is the Texans won’t have to worry about Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored the only offensive touchdown for the Jaguars back in the first matchup.
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The Texans have certainly not let up against their division rivals lately. Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games vs division opponents over the last two seasons and are an amazing 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games following a win.

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Carlo Campanella

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots    
Play: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis (6-3) comes off a solid 27-10 victory over Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football and head to New England (6-3) on a 4-game winning streak. While New England is leading the AFC East, the Patriots have recently won some close games due to their struggling defense, which has allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games. The Pats come off a 37-31 victory over Buffalo, but that 6-point win dropped them to 2-13 ATS as favorites of 11 points or more, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. Colts are 4-0 ATS during their last 4 trips to New England building confidence with every victory behind QB Luck. With both teams owning 6-3 records, must back this dog getting nearly double-digits, as these teams are closer than the Oddsmakers would have you think.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys    
Play: Cleveland Browns
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The Browns are in a nice spot here today as road dogs of 5 to 10 in non conference games off a home loss and prior home dog win have covered 10 of the last 13. Dallas has failed to cover 10 of the last 12 off a division game and are just 5-14 ats at home of late. NFL Dogs of 6 or more with rest have cashed over 80% of the time vs an opponent that has 1 or more wins. Look for Cleveland to cover here.

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Jack Jones
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Indianapolis Colts +9.5
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The books have set this number above a touchdown because they realize that not too many bettors believe that the Colts are for real. However, Indianapolis just keeps proving its doubters wrong and I believe they will once again this weekend. Plus, they are playing for a head coach that has cancer, so you know this team is going to leave everything they have on the field each Sunday.
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Indianapolis went into New England last year as a 20-point underdog and nearly pulled off the upset, falling by a final of 24-31. The Colts didn’t have Andrew Luck last year, and now they do. It certainly appears that he is going to be the next Peyton Manning with what he’s done so far in his rookie season. The Colts rank 8th in the league in passing offense at 277.9 yards/game.
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When you look at the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the Colts being a legitimate 6-3 team. They rank 5th in the league in total offense at 387.3 yards per game, and a respectable 18th in total defense at 350.6 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 36.7 yards/game, which is the sign of a quality squad.
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The Patriots haven’t really been that dominant at home this season. They have lost to the Arizona Cardinals, and all three of their wins came by 10 points or fewer, including two by 6 points or less to the Jets and Bills. If the Cardinals, Jets and Bills took the Patriots down to the wire at Gillette Stadium, the Colts should be able to as well.
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The Colts are 13-3 ATS vs. awful passing defenses – allowing 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. New England ranks 29th in the league against the pass at 285.3 yards/game allowed. Indianapolis is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Carolina Panthers +2
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Well we won the free one last week and damn near got the outright as the Rams went into San Francisco and went toe to toe with the Niner's. Pretty much everybody and their brother loved the 49ers in that one and I love looking for quality opportunities to fade the public. Trust me when I tell you it's much bettor in the long run to be going against the herd in sports wagering than with them. It just seems to be basic human instinct for people to latch onto the favorites. Listen guys, don't you think the odds makers know that. It just seems like pulling teeth often times to get people to take an underdog. I was a bookmaker for years and have seen it up close and personal. Only thing worse than a square bettor is a square bettor who just refuses to change his bad habits. But, all I can do is what I can do. I say we have a live dog here with the Panthers at home. I'm not really sold yet on the Buc's taking the field yet as road favorites. The fact is Tampa has some very tough games looking down the barrel at them and believe it or not, they might be caught looking past the Panthers here. I just don't think they are nearly good enough to have that kind of swagger yet and I can see them tripping up here. This won't make my subscribers list of plays because frankly I have a tough time trusting Newton under center. Much like his opponent this sunday, Josh Freeman, Cam has a bad habit of making mistakes at the worst possible moments. The Buc's actually are also a weak 3-7 against the number as a road favorites since the 04 season. That tells you also just how unfamiliar they are with this role. I say the right side here is the Panthers guys. Should be an entertaining game.

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King Creole
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Browns / Cowboys Under 43.5
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Don't be thrown off by Dallas' 38-pt explosion last week. In that game vs Philly, their offense had less than 300 total yards and only 22 points (16 pts came from freak plays). BOTH of these teams are offensively IMPOTENT once they get to the red zone. In 19 Red Zone trips, Cleveland has only 7 TD's and NINE FG's. And in 27 Red Zone trips. Dallas has 12 TD's and 12 FG's.
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The Brownies come in off their Bye Week.
2-12 O/U L3Y: All non-div road teams playing AFTER their Bye... if they scored 15 < pts in their last game.
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Cleveland is off a home dog loss and home dog win in their last 2 games.
0-9 O/U s'96: All GAME 7 > road teams off a SUATS home dog loss and a SUATS home dog win (Clev).
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The inept Browns offense has scored 15, 7, and 13 pts in their last 3 games.
1-7-1 O/U s'04: All GM 8 > non-div dogs who scored 15 < pts in EACH of their last 3 gms (Clev) w/ an OU line 39 > pts.
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The host Cowboys have scored 38 and 14 pts in their last 2 games.
1-9 O/U L4Y: All home teams who scored 38 < pts and 14 < pts in their last 2 gms (Dal) w/ an OU line > 36 pts.
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We've got an interconference matchup of two LOSING teams in this one.
1-8 O/U s'86: All Game 9 or greater < .500 home favs of > 6 pts (Dal) vs a .333 < opp (Clev) when the OU line is 42 > pts.
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Let's not forget that Cleveland is on a 4-16 O/U run in the last 12 months... and Dallas has gone 3-9 O/U vs non-div opponents in the same time frame.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Behind QB Luck, it has been quite an offensive emergence for the 6-3 SU, ATS Colts this year. Remember, this team was 2-14 SU last season. But a closer inspection of their 4-0 SU, ATS streak finds that it has come against Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami and Jacksonville, teams with a combined 11 wins. New England enters on a nice 3-0 SU run themselves as they look to build 2nd half momentum. In that streak, the offense has exploded for 111 points or 37 PPG. Key to this explosion has been a ground game that runs an average of 34 times a game for 146/4.3. That has opened the airways nicely for QB Brady. With the teams sporting identical records, be sure that the upstart Colts and QB Luck have the full attention of New England HC Belichek.

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Wunderdog Sports

Cleveland at Dallas
Pick: Cleveland +8

The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to win this game by plenty. But, over the past two years that talent has failed to manifest itself on the field. As a result, the Cowboys often find themselves in a battle week in week out regardless of the opponent. Going back to last year in a full season of games, Dallas is just 7-9 in their last 16, winning just two of those by more than 7 points. So 14 times they would have failed against this number, which is very telling. The fact is, Dallas plays up or down to their competition. Over the past three seasons, the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 34-12 ATS. Cleveland doesn't win many games, but they often find themselves in them, falling just short. The Browns are 2-11 straight-up in their last 13 games, but they have lost just one of the 11 by more than 10 points. Looking at those numbers from each side, as much as they shouldn't be, the Browns are likely to be in this game down the stretch. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when taking 6 or more points, and are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Dallas has not played well at home, going 2-9 ATS in their last nine home games. Dallas is also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons after a win. Take the points and play on Cleveland.

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SPORTS WAGERS
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Cleveland +8 -110 over DALLAS
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Dallas is far too desperate to take anyone lightly and need to win games like this to solidify its playoff chances. How many times have we heard that over the years? Dallas spotting more than a full touchdown is fool’s gold. When Dallas is supposed to win they usually don’t. They are a sloppy, undisciplined, self-destructive and one of the great underachieving teams of our time. They have just four covers in past 17 when giving points and they are offering them to one of the league’s best point takers.
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Cleveland has stayed within this range in three of its four road games. The only one they lost by more than eight was at G-Men when they built a 14-0 lead, took 91 yards in penalties and turned it over three times. That sounds more like a Dallas box score. The Brownies are rested and catch Dallas at the perfect time with the ‘Boys  waiting to host Washington on this upcoming Thanksgiving Thursday.
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KANSAS CITY +4 -105 over Cincinnati
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Now that the Chiefs have actually led in regulation, there are no limitations for what could be next. Something like winning a game, maybe? This could be the opportunity to do so. The Bengals have shown time and time again that they are not mature enough to handle the rigours of the NFL. Granted, Cincinnati had a solid win over the Giants last week but based on their recent play, the G-Men may have been running on fumes. Cincy heads to the road for the first time in five weeks. They lost their last road game in Cleveland. In addition, the Bengals have covered just three of past 17 when favored.
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Kansas City showed that they haven’t given up and perhaps Monday’s effort carries into this one. They were robbed by the zebras on Pittsburgh’s final drive last week by several phantom calls and that can’t be sitting well with them. The Chiefs have yet to win at home this season and need to show the supporting fan base that last week was no fluke. Another big effort would not be a surprise.
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Philadelphia +3½ -102 over WASHINGTON
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People say Andy Reid will find a job within minutes of being fired. That may be true but he tied his team’s fortunes to an aging, running quarterback fresh out of prison, that can’t read a defense and sported a horrible career completion percentage rate. Philly backers should be glad to see Nick Foles, the Eagles starter now that Mike Vick is ‘injured’. Of course, despite the ineptness, some of the blame must fall on the abysmal offensive line that Philly employs. That weak unit is not about to get better any time soon.
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It’s difficult to get behind the Eagles with their 1-7 record against the spread. However, this may be the first game they’re priced properly. The Redskins have their own issues, allowing nearly 28 points a game and more than 300 yards passing. Washington has lost all three games straight up when favored this year, they’ve lost three in a row to run its record to 3-6 and once again they’re going to watch the playoffs from the rail.  Mike Shanahan is another coach that seems to be surviving on the fumes of his reputation. Washington’s home record under Shanahan is an inexcusable 5-15. Shanahan has already stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes. That’s not what you want to hear when spotting points. Upset alert is on.
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CAROLINA +102 over Tampa Bay
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The tone for Carolina’s poor season was set in the opener when these Buccaneers pulled off the 16-10 upset as a 3-pt underdog in Tampa. Much has gone wrong for the Panthers ever since but not enough to warrant the Bucs being favored here. Despite their woes, the Black Cats are a couple of breaks and mental lapses away from a different season. Carolina has been at the short end of all five games decided by a touchdown or less.
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Tampa has crossed over the .500 mark with three straight wins but this could be the week that Cam Newton finds his truant passing game. The Bucs rank dead last in the league, giving up 321 yards per game through the air, nearly 20 more per game than both Buffalo and New Orleans. That should not be ignored and neither should the fact that the Bucs have Atlanta on deck next week at home. Tampa has been winning games with a poor defense and in this league, that’s unsustainable.
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PITTSBURGH +4 +100 over Baltimore
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If only things were as easy as they often appear in the NFL. If that were the case, we’d be all over the Ravens as they just throttled the Raiders by a 55-20 count while the Steelers struggled at home with the lowly Chiefs, eking out a 16-13 overtime win. In the process, Pittsburgh lost its leader as QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury. None of this is secret and many will back Baltimore in what looks like a slam dunk win. We’re not so sure. Yes, Big Ben is important but prior to Monday’s game, the Steelers were listed as the 3½-point favorite for this one. Now, Baltimore is 4? Ridiculous.
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Lost in all of this is that the Raiders put up more yards than Baltimore last week. They also had more third down conversions. Prior to that game, the Ravens barely squeaked by Cleveland, they were throttled in Houston, were extremely lucky to beat the Cowboys and they won in Kansas City by three points, scoring just nine. This Ravens team is simply not as good as their record indicates. Pittsburgh’s defense, allowing a league low 265 yards per game is more than capable of keeping this rival game in check. They will also dig down deeper with their #1 QB out in support of Byron Leftwich. We’re calling the upset but will gladly take the points.

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