College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Games to Watch - Week 12
By Christian Alexander
Stanford at Oregon
I've said in this space all year I think Oregon is the best team in the country and they are about to start on a three game stretch (if you count the PAC-12 Championship) that will test that theory. Everyone wants to talk about how good Texas A&M looked in the win at Alabama, and they did. Well guess what…Oregon is Texas A&M on steroids. Marcus Mariota is the West Coast version of Johnny Manziel with a better arm; only no one sees him play because their games start so late. Manziel's overall numbers are slightly better, but Mariota usually shuts it down by the 3rd quarter because Oregon blows out everyone they play. All he did against Cal was throw for 377 yards and six touchdowns. Obviously Cal is a far cry from Alabama but Manziel hasn't played Alabama every week either. One other major difference is that Manziel is doing almost everything himself; meanwhile Mariota shares the back field with two guys that have been mentioned in Heisman discussions all year. Both are obviously phenomenal, and ironically enough both were committed to Oregon originally before Manziel changed his mind and stayed closer to home in a move that has worked out great for both schools. With all that said Oregon still has to beat two, possibly three ranked teams the next three weeks to play for the National Championship. First up this week is Stanford at home. The Ducks have won nine of their last 10 games against the Cardinal, including a 53-30 win last year in Palo Alto. Stanford will be the best defense Oregon has faced all year with some of the best linebackers in the country, but the Cardinal defense hasn't seen anything like the Oregon offense either. The Ducks are averaging 55 points a game and have now scored 40+ points in 13 straight games, a new FBS record, previously held by Texas (2005-06). Stanford does come in off a big win against Oregon State where Kevin Hogan starting in his first ever game completed 22 of 29 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns and RB back Stepfan Taylor rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries for the Cardinal. Those numbers, while impressive and good enough to beat most teams simply won't get it done this week against Oregon. Bottom line…Stanford will have to play a perfect game on defense, offense and special teams to try and upset Oregon, especially in Autzen Stadium where they are huge 24-point road underdog to the mighty Ducks.
USC at UCLA
This game will decide who wins the PAC-12 South and most likely face Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship. USC has won 12 of the last 13 in the series, including last year's 50-0 beat down at the Coliseum; but UCLA comes into the game ranked higher than USC for the first time in over a decade. UCLA has won four games in a row since a surprising loss at California and is first in the Pac-12 South under head coach Jim Mora. Meanwhile cross-town rival USC who came into the year as the preseason #1 team in the country has underachieved on the field and made headlines for all the wrong reasons off the field. The Trojans are still very talented on offense with QB Matt Barkley and perhaps the best WR in the country in Marqise Lee. If the Bruins are going to beat USC, win the PAC-12 South and keep their surprising season alive they are going to need to keep Lee in check defensively and pound the ball with their sensational freshman RB Johnathan Franklin against a Trojan defense that has shown signs of being vulnerable, especially against the run. Not surprising, but perhaps yet another slap in the face, UCLA is listed as a 3-point home underdog to their cross-town rivals.
Kansas State at Baylor
A win this weekend clinches the Big 12 title for the Wildcats, however they are thinking bigger picture. After Alabama lost over the weekend all conventional wisdom says that Kansas State controls their own destiny to play for the National Championship and without a Big 12 title game they only have two games remaining. This week they travel to Waco to take on Baylor and two weeks later they are at home against a Texas team that has shown dramatic improvements over the last few weeks. The bad news for Collin Klein and his Heisman hopes is that he only threw for 145 yards and ran for another 50 (including two scores) against TCU. The good news for Klein is that this week he goes up against arguably the worst defense in the country in Baylor. Kansas State should have no trouble putting up points this week, but as OU find out last week, Baylor is capable of hanging around with almost anyone in the country due to their explosive offense. Kansas State was actually outgained 274-260 against TCU, but the defense and special teams once again stepped up with turnovers and solid red zone defense. Kansas State isn't flashy like Oregon and they don't play defense quite as well as Notre Dame, but overall they may be the most "complete" team in the country. Bill Snyder has done more with less than any other coach in the country in my opinion and if they can pull off one more road win this Saturday as a 10-point favorite in Waco they will be one home game away from playing for a National Championship in Miami.
Toledo at Northern Illinois
Toledo at Northern Illinois - Basically if you don't have anything else to do on Wednesday night after you watch Modern Family then you might want to tune in for this one. This is the de facto MAC West semi-final for whatever that's worth. Oh, that doesn't do anything for you? Fair enough, how about this; these two teams combined for 123 points in last year's game, won by NIU 63-60. Look at it another way, come June you would kill to be able to watch this game. NIU opens as a 10.5-point favorite and you can be sure the scoreboard operator will get a good mid-week workout.
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Last year OSU needed a late Hail Mary from freshman Braxton Miller to Devin Smith for a 33-29 win over the Badgers in Columbus. This year Wisconsin looks to not only get revenge at home but put an end to the Buckeyes perfect season. Wisconsin has already clinched the "Leaders" division due to the fact that half the division is ineligible (including Ohio St) and the other half is terrible. Basically all they had to do this year was show up and they were assured a spot in the Big 10 title game. Miller and the Buckeyes meanwhile still have their eye on a perfect season and if they can get by the Badgers this weekend the only team standing in their way is hated Michigan a week later. On a side note, Urban Meyer can coach…just thought I would throw that out there. Due to Wisconsin QB Joel Stave out for this game there is no early line as of post time.
Oklahoma at West Virginia
Oklahoma at West Virginia - These two teams last met in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl where WVU pulled off a surprising 48-28 upset. Pat White put on a performance for the ages and that game essentially won the late Bill Stewart the head coaching job in Morgantown. Fast forward four years and West Virginia is now just trying to stop a four game conference and overall losing streak after starting the season 5-0 and ranked as high as #5. Now they need to win one of their last three just to be bowl eligible. OU on the other hand still has a very outside shot of winning the Big 12 (with two KSU losses) and possibly even an at-large bid to a BCS game. OU will have no trouble scoring against a Mountaineers defense that allows over 41 points per game so this game will simply come down to whether the WVU offense can put up enough points to hang around. It would take another surprising upset on the Mountaineers part as OU opens as a 10-point road favorite in Morgantown.
Duke at Georgia Tech
Duke at Georgia Tech - Duke is 6-4 (3-3 ACC), Georgia Tech is 5-5 (4-3 ACC); so why is this game on the list? Because this game actually matters as far as which team will represent the ACC Coastal Division in the ACC Championship. Duke actually controls their own destiny at this point with a win Saturday and next week at home against Miami. Basically, welcome to the 2012 version of the ACC. Yes, the same ACC that automatically gets to send a team to a BCS game. Georgia Tech is coming off a 68 point game against North Carolina and Duke ranks 95th in the country in scoring defense, in other words, this game could be higher scoring than when these two teams meet on the hardwood later in the year. In that contest the Blue Devils will probably be favored, however Saturday night the Yellow Jackets are 11.5-point home favorites and may not stop scoring until sometime Sunday.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Fade Alert - Houston, Air Force
By Marc Lawrence
7 Come 11
Game 11 of the college football season signals many things.
For teams with six or more wins its one step closer to a probable bowl bid.
Teams languishing below .500 are likely to be home for the holidays.
So it is too for Game 11 non-winners that ended the previous season with 7 or more wins who are playing today off two losses-exact.
Our best advice for these teams is to bend over and kiss it goodbye, as these losers have a better chance of learning Florida election results first rather than enhancing their bowl chances.
That's because these 7-plus game winners last year who enter Game 11 this year off two losses-exact with a .500 or less record are 17-37-1 ATS since 1980.
Air Force and Houston will assume the role this week. And for what it's worth, home teams (the Falcons) are 8-22 ATS, while underdogs (the Cougars) are just 3-22 SU and 4-20-1 ATS.
Friday - Air Force vs. Hawaii
Saturday - Houston at Marshall
While 7 and 11 are winning numbers in the first roll at a craps table, together they are losers on the college gridiron.
Houston, you've got a problem…
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins
The winner between cross-town rivals USC and UCLA at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena Saturday will represent the Pac-12 South Division in the conference championship. Trojans snapping a two-game losing streak by defeating Arizona State Sun Devils 38-17 this past week will be hoping QB Matt Barkley can remain perfect vs Bruins (3-0 SU/ATS). UCLA coming off a 44-36 victory over Washington State they're fourth win in as many tries (2-2 ATS) will be looking to end a five game drought vs USC (2-3 ATS) while picking up just they're second win in fourteen attempts (1-12 SU, 4-9 ATS) vs Trojans. Suffering a history flop in last years meeting (50-0) the Bruins under first-year coach Jim Mora will come prepared. Expect Bruins to end the skid vs their cross-town rival as they pound the ground with RB Johnathan Franklin (1271 RY, 8 TD) taking advantage of a Trojan run-stop unit that is vulnerable allowing 148.3 rushing yards/game. Trends of interest: Trojans are on a 0-5 ATS road skid, 0-4 ATS road slide facing a team with a winning home record. Bruins are ridding a profitable 12-3 ATS home streak hosting a team with a winning road record.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Gophers bounced back from their 35-13 rout at the hands of Michigan by rolling over Illinois 17-3 as a 2.5 point road favorite this past Saturday moving the mark to 6-4 (5-5 ATS) on the campaign. Gophers now bowl eligible after recording their 6th victory of the season which is as many they have recorded the past two seasons combined aren't about to upend Cornhuskers. But getting both WR's AJ Barker, Derrick Engel back after sitting out last week should go a long way at keeping the contest within the expected 18.5 point spot. Gophers spanked 41-14 last season by Cornhuskers have added incentive to give it their all. Take the points, the Gophers have been money in the bank at this time of the year posting a 10-1 ATS mark their last 11 November games while Cornhuskers head into the tilt on a 3-7-2 ATS skid in November, 2-5-1 ATS slump vs a team with a winning record.
Stanford Cardinals at Oregon Ducks
With Alabama's loss at home to Texas A&M, the door is now wide open for the Ducks (10-0 6-4 ATS) to reach the BCS Championship Game. First, though, they need to take care of business at home against Stanford (8-2, 6-4 ATS). Stanford has one the better defenses in the nation (320.7 YPG, 17.2 PPG) but Cardinals have yet to face an explosive offense such as Oregon dismantling squads week-in week-out averaging 54.9 points/game and one that has scored 40+ in thirteen straight games. Mariota (2164 PY, 28 TD) guiding the explosive passing game, Kenjon Barner (1360 RY, 19 TD) doing his thing on the ground 'Quack-Attack' replicate the past two spankings inflicted on Cardinals. Last year when these teams met up at Stanford Stadium the Ducks racked up 387 total yards in a 53-30 win which followed a 52-31 victory behind a 626 total yard the previous season right here at Autzen Stadium. Oregon are favored by a staggering 21.5 points but it's still tough going against a Duck squad ridding a smart 19-1 (12-6-2 ATS) streak vs the conference, 9-1 (8-2 ATS) stretch vs Stanford.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
College Football Betting Preview: Stanford at Oregon
By Andrew Lange
Stanford at Oregon
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation: Oregon
Saturday, 5 pm PT – ABC
CRIS Opener: Oregon -21.5 O/U 65
CRIS Current: Oregon -20.5 O/U 64.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Oregon -22
A few weeks back I marked down in my notes to play against Stanford when they face up-tempo offenses. I did this on the heels of their overtime win over Arizona. In that game, the Cardinal were absolutely gashed defensively as the Wildcats rolled up 617 yards. Stanford was completely gassed in the second half as the Wildcats did whatever they wanted offensively. Since that time, Stanford has faced nothing but sub-par and/or pro-style offenses – the exact profile that their defense has historically thrived against.
Stanford's Last Five Opponents - National Rank, Total Offense
Oregon State - 58th, 408.8 ypg
Colorado - 114th, 306.8 ypg
Washington State - 92nd, 370.4 ypg
California - 66th, 397.5 ypg
Notre Dame - 60th, 403.3 ypg
Oregon - 3rd, 562.6 ypg
So here we are this weekend with Stanford traveling to face an Oregon squad that like Arizona runs a crazy-fast, up-tempo offense. The difference is not only are the Ducks stronger offensively than the Wildcats, they are also significantly better defensively. While Arizona allows 0.444 points per play (91st nationally), Oregon checks in at 26th at 0.293.
Back to Stanford's struggles against up-tempo offenses. In last year's bowl game against Oklahoma State, the Cardinal allowed 7.2 yards per play and 41 points. Their saving grace was Andrew Luck's 27-of-31, 347 yard performance. During the regular season, and undefeated at the time, Stanford played host to the Ducks and were destroyed 53-30. The Ducks had only 387 yards but forced five Stanford turnovers which resulted in two touchdown drives of 20 yards or less. The year before that, more of the same as Oregon racked up 626 total yards in a 52-31 win. Keep in mind, those performances were with Luck at quarterback, not back-up Kevin Hogan who will be making his first career road start.
Stanford will come ready to play and may be able to stick around for a while, but I can't help but go back to that Arizona game when the Cardinal defense looked slow and helpless. Expect that to be exposed once again on Saturday.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Pac-12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
Southern California at UCLA
How nice is it to see this game as being relevant again? College football needs this. The Pac-12 needs this. It's been a while since UCLA enters the 'Inner City' rivalry game with a higher ranking. In fact, the last time that happened was 2001. UCLA has a sour taste in its mouth after getting their heads handed to them, 50-0, in last season's game. The Trojans have won 12 of the past 13 meetings straight-up, but UCLA has been the better team this season, and USC needs this one to avert a complete disaster. USC is 1-4 ATS in its past five games against a team with a winning record, and 0-5 ATS in its past five road games. UCLA is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with a team that has a winning record, and 12-3 ATS in its past 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Bruins are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. While the Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 meetings with the Bruins, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine. USC is favored, but mostly due to recent trends over the years, and not because of this season's body of work.
Stanford at Oregon
If not for the emergence of UCLA, and the importance of their rivalry game with USC, this would be the marquee matchup in the Pac-12. In fact, it still might be the better game. The Cardinal are 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 road games, and 15-5-1 in their past 21 Pac-12 battles. The Cardinal are also 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups against a team with a winning record. However, the Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games and 5-0 ATS in the past five overall. However, Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a winning road record. As such, Stanford might be the play getting near three touchdowns. If you can get Stanford plus-21, that might be the way to go. They need all the help they can get, as Stanford is 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Oregon, and 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Eugene.
Arizona at Utah
Arizona has been impressive, going 6-1 at home. However, they are 0-3 away from Tucson. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, 0-4 ATS in the past four against a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a losing home record. For Utah, they are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning record. In the past five meetings, the dog is 4-1 ATS, and the road team is 4-1 ATS. If you want overwhelming evidence for a wager, it might be the over. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's past five games against a team with a losing record, and 6-2 in their past eight road contests. The over is also 17-5 in Arizona's past 22 Pac-12 tilts. For Utah, the over has cashed in four straight at Rice-Eccles, and is 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning record.
California at Oregon State
There was talk about an undefeated season in Corvallis, but it's hard to believe the media even believed their own hype. Oregon State has been dumped twice in the past three games, although both losses came on the road. At Reser Stadium, they are 4-0 this season. The Cal Bears are just 1-3 on the road, and 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall. Cal is also 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games, and 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Beavs are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 overall. If you were thinking about the total, Cal is 12-5 in their past 17 Pac-12 tilts, and the under is 14-6 in the past 20 overall. For Oregon State, the under is 9-4-1 in their past 14 home games. The under is also 4-1-1 in the past six meetings at Oregon State, and 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall.
Washington State at Arizona State
Washington State has been terrible this season, although they were able to cover last week against UCLA. In fact, they have covered two of their past three, and four of the past six despite losing each game straight up. Washington State is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, although just 2-5 ATS in their past seven visits to Tempe. For AZ State, they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 battles. However, they are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. It might be best just to stay away due to a bunch of conflicting trends. Even the over/under has evidence pointing to either side.
Washington at Colorado
The Huskies are starting to re-emerge as a respectable Pac-12 team, winning and covering three straight games to return to the Top 25. Colorado, well, it is just ugly. They have lost nine of their 10 games, including all five at home. But hey, their lone win is against a team from the state of Washington, the Huskies' Apple Cup rival, Washington State. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games, but 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, and 8-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a losing record. For Colorado, they are 0-5 ATS in their past five games in Boulder, and 1-5 ATS in their past six tilts against a team with a winning record.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
I was staring a perfect 3-0 in the ACC last week right in the face, but the Virginia Cavaliers mounted an impressive two-minute drill to score with :06 left in regulation to knock off the Miami Hurricanes, whom I had on the moneyline instead of the published plus-2. The Canes frittered away 10-point fourth quarter lead, causing me to say bad words in front of my kids, and put me in a generally foul mood for the remainder of the day. All because of a Miami-Virginia game. I really need to stop watching my picked games, and just check the scores later after doing something productive. But, we all know, that simply can't be done. It is more fun to follow the games online or on television, even when we take a bad beat. Gotta love the action.
North Carolina State at Clemson
Who knows what Wolfpack team is going to show up here? They beat Florida State, they get smashed by a terrible Virginia team, and then rebound the next week by crushing Wake Forest. This team is borderline schizophrenic. N.C. State gained bowl eligibility with their win over the Deacs, becoming the fourth ACC team to qualify for postseason play (UNC also has six wins, but is ineligible for a bowl). The Wolfpack is 0-5-1 ATS in their past six road games, but 25-12-3 ATS against a team with a winning record in its past 40 games. N.C. State is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 games in November. Those trends are just as confusing as their on-field play. Meanwhile, Clemson is not confusing. They have covered seven straight, and they are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. In addition, Clemson is 25-10 ATS in their past 35 ACC battles. More confusing, though, is the fact N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Death Valley, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings (the lone loss last season when Clemson was killed in Raleigh late in the season), and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall. The Tigers are favored by 17 points in this one, and the public likes them at about a 2-to-1 clip. The good news for the Tigers is that WR Sammy Watkins (leg) is probable to play. I can totally see a backdoor cover happening in this game once it has already been decided.
Duke at Georgia Tech
If the Duke Blue Devils are ever going to get any respect, they are going to need to find a way to win on the road. While impressive at home, at least against teams they should beat, they are 5-1. However, on the road they are an abysmal 1-3, and they have been outscored by 166-74 in those four contests away from Wallace Wade. As such, Vegas has installed the Ramblin' Wreck as a two-touchdown favorite. Too much? Let's see. Duke is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games, but 1-6 ATS in their past seven road contests. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech is 5-2 ATS in its past seven ACC battles. The over might be the play here, as the total has gone over the number four times (4-0-1) in Duke's past five road contests, and the over is 7-0-1 in Duke's past eight ACC games overall. For Georgia Tech, the over is 7-1 in its past eight games, and 6-0 in its past six games against a team with a winning record. This could be a high-scoring affair. The total is set high at 68.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame
This one doesn't figure to be close, although the Fighting Irish have had a penchant of letting lesser teams hang around and at least make it interesting (see Pitt, BC). Vegas has made ND a 24-point favorite, although Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their past five games. Wake is 4-1 ATS in its past four against Independents, and 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games following a straight-up loss. When these teams met in Winston-Salem last season (Nov. 5, 2011), Wake hung tight before eventually losing 24-17, covering at home. The Deacs have covered two of their past three on the road. The total of under 42 looks mighty tasty, as the under has cashed in five straight for Wake, and is 19-7 in ND's past 26 in the shadow of 'Touchdown Jesus'. The under is also 14-3 in the Irish's past 17 against ACC opponents, including last week at Chestnut Hill against BC.
Florida State at Maryland
Maryland will be wearing super-cool black Under Armour uniforms for their game. Wait until you see them Saturday, unless you want to Google them now. I am a traditionalist, and have tremendous disdain for these ever-changing uniforms for each team every other week, but these are pretty awesome. Now, too bad Maryland can't change their team. They're still the same old Terrapins who are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 home games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 ACC games. Facing Florida State is not good news, although the 'Noles are 0-4 ATS in their past four road contests, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven. FSU has dominated this series lately, and they are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The favorite (presumably Florida State each time) is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. The total might be the way to go in this one, as it is hard to see Maryland scoring much against this defense, using a fourth-string linebacker-turned-quarterback to run the offense. The under is 4-0 in Maryland's past four games against a team with a winning record, 5-2 in their past seven overall, and 7-3 in their past 10 ACC games. The under is also 6-1 in FSU's past seven road contests, and 9-4-1 in their past 14 overall. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in the series, and 4-1 in the past five meetings at College Park. Right now, you can hit the under at 45.5 or 46 points.
North Carolina at Virginia
It could be argued that the Virginia Cavaliers are the hottest team in the Coastal Division of the ACC. That's not saying much, and speaks volumes about the imbalance in the conference. However, UVA has ripped off two straight wins, and remain bowl eligible if they can win against UNC and Virginia Tech. Despite their two-game winning streak, though, they are just 1-8-1 ATS overall this season, and 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 games overall. North Carolina, on the other hand, is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. In this series, the Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings with the Hoos, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight trips to Charlottesville. That might mean UVA is a good bet at home despite their recent trouble against the number. The total trends are a mess, as the over is 5-1 in UNC's past six, but the under is 9-3 in UVA's past 12 games at Scott Stadium. It's a good idea to avoid the total.
Virginia Tech at Boston College
The game might be ugly. At first glance, Virginia Tech is 0-5 on the road this season, but favored by 10. What? The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a losing record. In addition, they are 6-16-1 ATS in their past 23 games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC battles. So, what gives? Well, Boston College is just 6-13 ATS in its past 19 home games, and 6-20 ATS in the past 26 battles against teams with a losing record. They are also 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight games overall. So someone will be bucking a trend here. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six games.
South Florida at Miami
A couple of years ago, this might have been an attractive matchup, but the Bulls are just not the team they were then. USF looked to be a rising team, but they have fallen off badly. The Bulls are just 1-11-1 ATS in their past 13 games on grass, and 4-13-1 ATS in their past 18 games overall. They do hold a 7-2 ATS record in the past nine matchups with ACC opponents, but that's about the only thing to get bettors off of Miami. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games, 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, and 4-0 ATS in their past four on grass. Miami hurt some people (ME!) with a last-second loss at Virginia, losing by one, but still cover a plus-2 line. If you had them on the moneyline, though (again, ME!), then you have a bit of a sour taste in your mouth.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
NCAA System Of The Week
By Robbie Gainous
Inside The Stats
The college championship got a bit more interesting with the Crimson Tide falling at home to the Aggies of Texas A&M last Saturday. Several big games left before this one is decided, will there be another one-loss team playing for the title this season?
On to the business at hand our NCAA System of the week. Suffering a tough loss as the Cyclones failed to show up and the Horns took them to the proverbial woodshed last Saturday. Looking for much better results this week and moving into positive territory once again for the year.
The Wisconsin Badgers went on the road last week to Bloomington Indiana for a conference clash against the host Hoosiers. Wisconsin had little trouble with their conference foe winning 62 to 14 as a 7.5-point road favorite. With such a large victory, we wanted to know what happens the following week to that road favorite.
We found that after an easy blowout win on the road, teams have returned home riding that wave of momentum and are almost unbeatable in the right situation. With the addition of a couple parameters, we find a perfect winning situation.
The database tells us to Play ON CFB home teams (not a favorite of more than five points) with less than thirteen days rest coming off a road straight up win of forty-three or more points. Since 1983 these home favorites have been money posting a record of 12-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 12.8 points per game.
With all the system, parameters met this week's Cajun Sports Wire NCAA Football System of the Week recommends a play on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Badgers wave of momentum should continue at least for another week as they hang ten this Saturday at home with a win over the Buckeyes.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Big Ten Report - Week 12
Wisconsin wrapped up the Leaders division with a win over Indiana last week. The Badgers still have a lot to play for this week, however, when Ohio State comes to town in our Big Ten Showcase game of the week. OSU beat the Badgers on a Hail Mary a season ago and Wisconsin wants to re-establish its winning ways at home after losing to Michigan State the last time in Camp Randall. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes aim for their 11th consecutive win and to keep their perfect season alive. All the inside information on that game, as well as every other Big Ten matchup is inside!
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Ohio State
UW: Last week at Indiana: W 62-14
OSU: Last week - BYE
Ohio State is working on a perfect season and can lock up the Leaders division championship with a win, but because of postseason bans, Wisconsin is the team that will represent the division in the conference championship game in Indianapolis. In last week's win over Indiana, Wisconsin rushed for a team-record 564 yards and scored seven rushing touchdowns. It was a good thing too, because the Badgers were working with their third string quarterback and he had to throw just seven passes the entire game. The strong rushing effort helped the Badgers hang onto the ball for +20 minutes time of possession over the Hoosiers. They'll have a much more difficult time running against this Ohio State defense that ranks 16th against the run. Defensively Wisconsin held its fifth straight opponent to 16 points or fewer and now ranks 15th in total defense.
Ohio State has won ten straight and got a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois two weeks ago. OSU hasn't scored fewer than 29 points since September and is averaging 46 points over the last five games. QB Miller has over 1,700 yards passing and over 1,100 yards rushing with 27 total touchdowns and he can remain in the Heisman hunt with another strong performance. The defense has been below-average, allowing 31 points per game over the past five weeks. But this unit has been very opportunistic with timely turnovers (some returned for touchdowns).
Recent history: Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against the Badgers. They are just 1-3 ATS in the last four trips to Camp Randall, however, including a loss here in 2010 when the Bucks were #1 in the nation. Last year Wisconsin was down, 14-26, late in the 4th before two touchdown passes gave them the lead. Braxton Miller then threw the game-winning 40-yard touchdown pass with just 20 seconds remaining. Another notable note is that Bret Bielema and Urban Meyer had a recruiting spat this offseason and you can bet that neither coach has forgotten about it.
Trends: Ohio State is 27-10-1 ATS in its last 38 road games. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games and 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 home games. The 'under' is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between this two in Madison.
Injury report: OSU coach Urban Meyer says he doesn't know where LB Etienne Sabino is health-wise right now, but the senior will start at Wisconsin after missing two games.
Nebraska (-20) vs. Minnesota
UN: Last week vs. Penn State: W 32-23
UM: Last week at Illinois: W 17-3
Nebraska seems to have a clear path to Indianapolis to play the Badgers. The Huskers have this game at home against Minnesota and next week at reeling Iowa. However, they have been playing with fire as of late and no game has been a cake-walk for them. They've trailed in the fourth quarter in three of their last four games including last week vs. Penn State. The Huskers were down by 14 points at halftime and didn't take the lead until midway through the final quarter. The offense racked up 267 rushing yards and 438 total yards against a good Penn State defense - most of it coming in the 2nd half. Defensively Nebraska struggled in the first half last week. They really stepped up in the second. Nebraska forced three turnovers, forced a safety, and allowed just three points all in the second half last week.
Minnesota reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win last week at Illinois last week. It was far from a dominating victory, and the Gophers will have to avoid being flat in their second consecutive road game - this one in the unfriendly confines of Memorial Stadium. This will especially tough for true freshman QB Philip Nelson. Nelson had just 78 yards passing last week against Illinois. The running game helped him out, churning out 232 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Few people pegged Minnesota as a bowl team after back-to-back 3-9 seasons. They now aim to play spoiler and for a signature win this week at Nebraska.
Recent history: Nebraska won the first meeting as conference foes last season, 41-14 (previous meeting before that was in 1990). Nebraska opened up with a scorching first half, taking a 34-0 lead into halftime. Nebraska rushed for 346 yards (6.2 YPC) and the defense held Minnesota to just 254 yards and 11 first downs.
Trends: Minnesota is a surprising 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in November. The Cornhuskers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games, but just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games as a 20-point or more favorite.
Injury report: Star RB Rex Burkhead is testing his injured knee in practice this week in hopes that he can get back on the field this Saturday. Burkhead said he's "pretty close" to getting back on the field but that he wants to be smart about the injury. Coach Pelini said the team does not want to play Burkhead until he is 100 percent healthy.
Michigan State (-6.5) vs. Northwestern
MSU: Last week - BYE
NU: Last week at Michigan: L 31-38 (OT)
Both teams have been eliminated from the Big Ten championship picture, but that doesn't mean they have nothing to play for. The Spartans still need one more win to get to a bowl game with just two games remaining. The bye week arrived at a great time for the Spartans last week. The Spartans suffered another setback two weeks ago after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. QB Andrew Maxwell will have to bounce back from another rough game against Nebraska (9-of-27 passing). RB Bell is holding this team together with 1,249 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns.
With a few different strokes of fate, we'd be talking about the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats. They've held 4th quarter leads in all three of their losses, including a three-point lead at Michigan last week before the Wolverines kicked a tying field goal as time expired (Northwestern lost in overtime). Northwestern's offense played extremely well against a stout Michigan defense. QB's Siemian and Colter completed 14-of-21 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wildcats also tallied 248 rushing yards. This team has been a part of a few bad losses this season, and this one probably stung the most. NW outplayed the Wolverines almost the entire game and a win in the Big House would've been something sweet. Now they have the tough task of regrouping and trying not to be flat this Saturday.
Recent history: Michigan State has won four straight in the series and is 3-1 ATS over that span. The Spartans are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in the last five games at home against the Wildcats. MSU won in Evanston last year, 31-17.
Trends: Northwestern has covered four straight overall and is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall and 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
Injury report: Northwestern starting CB Nick VanHoose is questionable for this game, but head coach Fitzgerald said RB Venric Mark will play.
Michigan (-14) vs. Iowa
UM: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 38-31 (OT)
UI: Last week vs. Purdue: L 24-27
Nebraska is in the lead in the Legends division, but you never know in college football and the Wolverines are one Huskers misstep away from taking control of the division, so expect a motivated effort. It looked bleak for a while last week against Northwestern, but Michigan received a huge play from WR Roy Roundtree, who somehow hauled in a 53-yard pass to set up the game-tying field goal against Northwestern. The Wolverines won in overtime. Backup QB Gardner played well in his first start of the season, completing 16-of-29 passes for 249 yards and notched four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). Gardner will likely get the start again in place of an injured Denard Robinson.
Iowa is going through a four-game losing streak, its longest since 2007. A loss here would keep the Hawkeyes at home for bowl season. Despite playing at home against a porous Purdue squad last week needing a win, Iowa seemed checked out and unmotivated. The offense had yet another dismal day. Vandenberg completed just 19-of-36 passes for 190 yards. They also had 31 carries for just 74 yards (2.4 YPC). Vandenberg has just five touchdown passes this season and they are averaging just 87 rush yards per game over the last five at less than 3.1 YPC. The defense allowed 490 yards to Purdue, who hadn't gained that many yards since September 15th.
Recent history: Iowa has won three straight in the series and is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six trips to Ann Arbor. Last year Iowa limited Denard Robinson to just 17-of-37 passing and held the Wolves to just 3.4 YPC in the 24-16 win.
Trends: Iowa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Michigan is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more. The Wolves are just 10-27 ATS in their last 37 conference games overall.
Injury report: Brady Hoke is once again not providing much information on his quarterback situation. He said Wednesday that QB Denard Robinson remains day-to-day with an injured nerve in his throwing elbow. Robinson doesn't appear to be improving as quickly as the Wolverines once expected. Expect Devin Gardner to get the start again.
Penn State (-18.5) vs. Indiana
PSU: Last week at Nebraska: L 23-32
IU: Last week vs. Wisconsin: L 14-62
The potential Indiana Big Ten championship story was fun while it lasted (which turned out to be about five minutes into its matchup with Wisconsin last week), but the young Hoosiers are far from a championship caliber squad. Indiana never truly challenged the Badgers in its most-anticipated home game in recent memory. The Hoosiers allowed 564 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns to the Badgers and it seemed as though it didn't matter who the ball was handed to - everyone saw success running the ball. Offensively the previously strong passing attack of Indiana was stifled against the Badgers defense. Coffman and Sudfeld completed just 25-of-47 passes for 233 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. They'll face another tough task against when they visit an angry Penn State squad off of a loss.
Penn State may feel cheated by the refs in the loss last week, but the truth is that the offense didn't do much to help the team in the second half. They turned the ball over three times, allowed a safety, and only managed three points after taking a 20-6 lead into halftime. The defense couldn't stop Nebraska in the second half and the Huskers' rushing attack racked up 267 yards. This D unit has strong rankings, but the fact is that it has struggled against the elite offenses while dominating the weak ones. Northwestern, Ohio State, and Nebraska all scored 28 points or more (PSU has held the other seven opponents to just 13 points per game). PSU has been good off of a loss this season, as the Lions have won the last two chances by 27 & 25 points.
Recent history: The Hoosiers are 0-7 lifetime in Beaver Stadium, losing by an average of 21 points per outing. The Hoosiers have, however, covered four of the last five meetings overall. Penn State won an ugly meeting last year. The Nittany Lions outgained IU by 208 yards, but had three turnovers and only won by six points - 16-10.
Trends: Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. The Hoosiers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Penn State is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and is 4-1 ATS off of a loss.
Illinois (+7) vs. Purdue
UI: Last week vs. Minnesota: L 3-17
PU: Last week at Iowa: W 27-24
The Boilermakers can still go bowling by beating the Illini on the road and winning over Indiana at home in the finale. Danny Hope may have saved his job - at least for another week - with that victory. A loss here to follow-up would almost certainly guarantee that Hope doesn't return in 2013. Purdue dominated the box score at Iowa and shouldn't have needed a last-second field goal to win. The Boilers racked up 26 first downs and 490 yards, receiving big performances from QB Marve (266 passing yards and two touchdowns) and RB Ralph Bolden (102 yards on 14 carries). The defense really stepped up as well for the first time in over a month, allowing Iowa to just 71 rush yards and 16 first downs.
Illinois has dropped seven straight and remains winless in the conference. This is probably its best chance at notching that elusive first victory before traveling to Northwestern in the finale next week (the Illini have now dropped 12 straight Big Ten games dating back to last season). They are averaging just 10.5 points per game in conference play and haven't scored over 22 points - which mostly came in garbage time in a blowout against Ohio State. Illinois was competitive in its loss to Minnesota last week. The Illini were down by just seven points before Minnesota scored the clinching touchdown with just over a minute remaining. Still, the offense managed just three points and 276 yards.
Recent history: Purdue has won six of the last seven meetings and is 3-1 ATS in its last four trips to Champaign. Last year, Purdue had a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter but had to fend off a late rally, winning 21-14.
Trends: The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss and 0-7 ATS in its last seven conference games.
Injury report: Illinois' star LB Jonathan Brown has still not been cleared to play after missing the past two games. Head coach Tim Beckman said Brown is no longer using a sling and looks to be improving.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
College Football Betting Preview: Kansas St at Baylor
By Ian Cameron
Kansas State at Baylor
Ian Cameron’s Recommendation: Kansas State
Saturday, 5 pm PT – ESPN
CRIS Opener: Kansas State -11 O/U 74
CRIS Current: Kansas State -13 O/U 74
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Kansas State -11
Kansas State is the No. 1 team in the BCS standings entering this week. They are among the most public teams in college football yet their pointspread dominance just continues to roll on. KSU is 10-0 SU, 8-1-1 ATS and they’ve outscored the opposition by an average of 24.5 ppg. The Wildcats can clinch a share of the Big XII title and the league's automatic BCS bowl bid with a win against Baylor so don’t expect a letdown this week.
Kansas State has put up gaudy numbers offensively scoring 51, 52, 35, 24, 56, 27, 55, 55, 44 and 23 points. That is awful news for Baylor’s sieve-like defense which has all the characteristics of a bottom-tier unit. They’ve had woeful coverage downfield in their secondary, been manhandled in the trenches against power rushing teams like Kansas State, suffered from abysmal open field tackling, and they’ve generated very little pass rush on opposing quarterbacks. It’s no surprise that Baylor is allowing over 519 total yards and 39.4 points per game. They rank 97th or worse in the country in all four major defensive categories: total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points allowed. The Bears have given up 42 to UL Monroe, 70 to West Virginia, 49 to TCU, 56 to Texas, 35 to Iowa State and 42 to Oklahoma. The Wildcats put up 36 points against the Bears last season and are poised for a lot more against this anemic stop unit on Saturday.
Baylor’s offense has kept them in games all season but Kansas State has had few issues stopping spread offenses in Big XII play. The Cats held Oklahoma to 19 points, silenced West Virginia’s attack to 14 points, and allowed just 24 to Texas Tech. Last week, the Wildcats held Oklahoma State to 20 points by the time the fourth quarter started before OSU tacked on few meaningless scores late. Bottom line is if Baylor can’t trade points with Kansas State, they simply don’t have the defense to stay close. Too many things in favor of the road chalk. Lay the points.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
NCAAF Week 12
Northwestern is 7-3 but gagged away all three losses in 4th quarter; they are 2-3 in last five games, 3-1 vs spread as underdogs, with losses by 11-1-7ot points. Last six Michigan State games were all decided by 4 or less points; Spartans are 1-6 vs spread as faves this year, 0-5 at home. State won last four series games by average score of 32-20, but lost four of last six games overall. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-13 vs spread. Under is 7-2-1 in Spartan games; three of last four Wildcats games went under.
Tennessee won six in row, 13 of last 14 games vs Vanderbilt, with dogs 6-2 vs spread in last eight; Vols won last six visits here, last three by 14-10-29 points, but Tennessee's defense has fallen apart, allowing 38-48-51 points in last three games. Vandy rallied from down 23-6 to win last week at Ole Miss, its fourth win in row; they're 1-3 as faves this year, 1-1 at home. Vols lost five of last six games, blowing 21-7 halftime lead at home to Missouri last week. SEC home favorites are 15-13 vs spread.
West Virginia's defense is hideous, allowing 49-55-39-55 points during 4-game losing streak; they allowed 63-45 points in last two games they've won. Mountaineers are 3-2 at home, with underdogs covering four of the five games; they're 1-1 as dogs this year. Oklahoma is 4-0 on road, 3-0 in last four games as road favorite, winning by 17-21-42-15 points. This is not your normal Sooner defense; they allowed 185+ rushing yards three of last four games. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.
USC won five in row, 12 of its last 13 games vs crosstown rival UCLA; they crushed Bruins 50-0 LY, won five of last six visits here, winning by 14-21 in last two. This is Mora's first game as UCLA coach in this series so chance for him to make recruiting inroads here. Trojans lost two of last three games overall- they are 0-5 vs spread away from home in '12. UCLA won last three games, scoring 45-66-44 points; they covered both games as an underdog this year. Pac-12 home dogs are 11-10 vs spread. Four of last five UCLA games went over total; under is 5-3 in last eight Trojan games.
Kansas State/Baylor split pair of close games last two years, with home team winning both; Wildcats won 36-35 LY, lost 47-42 in '10, but this is been K-State's year- they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, 5-2 when a favorite, 1-1 on road, winning away games by 5-6-41-13 points. Baylor lost five of its last six games, losing twice when they scored 50+ points; they're 3-1 vs spread as underdog this year. Iowa State/TCU beat them by 14-28 points, only two games they've lost by more than 7 points. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Under is 3-0-1 in K-State's road games, 3-0 in last three Baylor games.
Lined opened at Oregon -24, is down to 20.5, as books made number so Ducks wouldn't get all the action; they won nine of last 10 games with Stanford, winning 53-30/52-31 last two years, despite Cardinal being in top 10 at time both years. Oregon covered its last five games, with 62-51 win at USC closest game; they're playing for style points to stay in top three in BCS Standings, so tough to buck them here. Stanford won last four games; their only losses are 17-13 at Washington, 20-13 at Notre Dame. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last six Oregon games went over; four of last five Cardinal games stayed under.
Favorites covered four of five UCF-Tulsa games, with Hurricanes taking 21-17 decision in Orlando LY; Golden Knights lost their only visit here, 49-19 (+23) in '08- they've won last six games, with three of last four on road. Tulsa won 8 of last 9 games, with its only loss 19-15 at Arkansas; they're 5-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorites- they've been positive in TOs in each of last six games. UCF covered its only games as a dog this year. C-USA home favorites are 11-9 vs spread. Five of last six UCF games went over total; last four Tulsa games stayed under.
BYU won 41-17/52-13 in two games since losing at Notre Dame; win at Georgia Tech was its only win in four road games- they're 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 0-1 on road. San Jose State is going bowling for first time in six years (2nd since '90); they've won four in row, 8 of last 9 games, are 2-0 as underdog this year, and covered last four tries as home underdog. San Jose lost by 3 at Stanford, so they're legit. WAC non-conference underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Three of last four BYU games, five of last eight Spartan games went over total.
Syracuse handed Louisville its first loss last week, but they're 1-4 away from home, with only win 37-36 at South Florida when they trailed 23-3 at half. Orangemen are 3-2-1 as underdogs. Missouri gave up 585 yards last week at Tennessee, but rallied back from down 21-7 at half to win in OT, 51-48. Tigers are 5-0 when they score 21+ points, 0-4 when they do not-- all four of their losses came in SEC games. SEC non-conference home favorites are 9-16 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 8-2-1, 4-2 on road. Last four Syracuse games went over total; six of last eight Missouri games stayed under.
Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech last three years, including 66-6 beating in Lubbock LY when they outgained Red Raiders, 637-270. Cowboys allowed 41+ points in all three losses this year; they're 19-7-1 vs spread in last 27 games as home favorite, 4-0 this year. Tech struggled to beat woeful Kansas in OT last week, but they're 8-3, with losses by 21-31-9 points- they're 1-2 as underdogs, and don't have takeaway in any of last three games. Big X home favorites are 10-12 vs spread. Three of last four Tech games, five of last eight OSU games went over total.
Utah State is 9-0 vs spread this year, winning last four games; their only losses are 16-14 at Wisconsin, 6-3 at BYU; Aggies lost six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech losing three here 24-6/45-38/48-35. State was a dog in four of nine wins; they've won road games at Colorado St (31-19), San Jose (49-27), UTSA (48-17). Louisiana Tech is 9-1, with only loss 59-57 to Texas A&M (trailed 39-16 at half), so this is high-level game. Bulldogs covered both games as dog this year. WAC home underdogs are 2-7 vs spread this season. Seven of nine State games stayed under; nine of ten Tech games went over.
Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine Ohio State-Wisconsin games, as dog won SU last two years; Buckeyes won four of last five in series, but lost two of last three visits here. Ohio State is quietest 10-0 team ever, but they've only played three road games, winning 17-16 at Michigan St, 52-49 at Indiana before beating Penn State 35-23- they've allowed 22+ points in last five games. Badgers are bully team, with five wins by 11+ points, but they've lost three of last four games that were decided by 3 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last seven Wisconsin games, four of last five OSU games went over total.
Arkansas State hammered Troy 45-14 LY, its first win in last five tries vs Trojans; they lost last two visits here, 35-28/35-9. ASU won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 3-0 on Sun Belt road, winning at FIU by 14, ULL by 23, North Texas by 18. Troy is 2-3 in last five games, but they upset Navy 41-31 last week, fifth straight game they allowed 31+ points. Troy covered all three games as an underdog this year. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread. Last five Troy games, three of last four ASU games went over the total.
-- Maryland is 4-9 in its last 13 games as a home underdog.
-- Road team covered 10 of last 11 Northwestern-Michigan St games.
-- Indiana covered four of last five games with Penn State.
-- Nevada is 7-14 in its last 21 games as a road favorite.
-- Over the last 20 years, Wisconsin is 16-4 vs spread in its last home game of the season.
-- Road team covered six of last seven NC State-Clemson games.
-- Houston is 6-13 in its last 19 games as a road favorite.
-- Home side covered nine of last ten Miss State-Arkansas games.
-- USC won 12 of last 13 games vs UCLA (9-4 vs spread).
-- Over last 22 years, Notre Dame is 6-15-1 in last home game of year.
-- Home team is 11-4-1 vs spread in Rice-SMU series, with Owls 6-0 vs spread the last six years.
-- Iowa is 8-3-2 vs spread in last 13 games with Michigan.
-- Washington covered six of last 24 Pac-12 road games.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Big 12 Battles
By Brian Edwards
The Week 12 card certainly isn’t the best one we’ve seen this season, but we’ve got a pair of Big 12 games with plenty on the line. Most notably, unbeaten Kansas St. (10-0 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread) will play its second road game in as many weeks at Baylor.
Most betting shops have installed the Wildcats as 12½-point favorites with a total of 75. Gamblers can take the Bears on the money line for a plus-425 payout (risk $100 to win $425).
Bill Snyder’s team has only been challenged twice this year in wins at Oklahoma (24-19) and at Iowa St. (27-21). KSU’s eight other victories have come by margins of 14 points or more.
In four road assignments, Kansas St. has a 3-0-1 spread record. Despite suffering a concussion the previous week in a 44-30 home win over Oklahoma St., senior quarterback Collin Klein was able to go in Ft. Worth last weekend.
Klein led the Wildcats to a 23-10 win at TCU as a 6½-point ‘chalk.’ He ran for a pair of touchdowns while the defense produced its best effort of the year.
Klein is considered the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy, with Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel looking like the only challenger. Klein has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 2,020 yards with a 12/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 748 yards and 19 TDs.
Junior running back John Hubert has run for a team-high 783 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Klein’s favorite throwing target is Chris Harper, who has 36 receptions for 604 yards and two TDs.
Baylor (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) can make its season and renew its postseason aspirations with an upset win in this spot. In addition, it could make a lot of people in Tuscaloosa and Athens happy.
But Art Briles’s squad has lost five of its last six games, including last Saturday’s 42-34 setback at Oklahoma. The Bears did hook up their betting supporters as 21-point underdogs. In fact, they have posted a 4-2 spread record during their current 1-5 SU slide.
The offense hasn’t been the problem, though. Even without last year’s Heisman winner, Robert Griffin III, the Bears rank second in the nation in total offense. They are seventh-best in scoring, averaging 42.7 points per game.
Senior QB Nick Florence has 3,191 passing yards with a 25/11 TD-INT ratio. Florence has also rushed for 362 yards and six TDs.
Baylor senior WR Terrance Williams has enjoyed a breakout campaign, hauling in 77 receptions for 1,431 yards and 10 TDs.
During Briles’s five-year tenure, Baylor is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for the Bears, 2-1 in their three home games with a total. Meanwhile, K-St. has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, but the ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in its road assignments.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
One hour earlier on FOX, West Virginia (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) will take on Oklahoma in Morgantown. Most spots are listing the Sooners as 11-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 74. WVU is available on the money line for an attractive plus-330 return (risk $100 to win $330).
Dana Holgorsen’s team had national-title aspirations in early October, but those hopes have given way to a four-game losing streak in WVU’s first venture through the teeth of a Big 12 schedule. Even worse, the Mountaineers are mired in an abysmal 1-7 ATS slide.
West Va. is coming off a 55-34 loss at Oklahoma St. as a 10½-point underdog last Saturday. Geno Smith completed 36-of-54 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Junior WR Stedman Bailey had 14 catches for 225 yards and one TD.
Nevertheless, WVU had to play from behind the entire game after going down 14-0 early. The Mountaineers cut the deficit to 38-34 midway through the third stanza, but the Cowboys quickly answered with 17 consecutive points.
WVU’s defense has been atrocious all year long. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 121 in the country, surrendering 41.4 points per game. They score at a 40.0 PPG clip thanks to the play of Smith.
For the season, Smith has connected on 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,038 yards with an incredible 31/3 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is one of the nation’s elite WRs, bringing down 75 receptions for 1,055 yards and 16 TDs. Senior WR Tavon Austin has 95 catches for 975 yards and 11 TDs.
Oklahoma (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) has lost to two of the country’s four unbeaten teams with both defeats coming in Norman. The Sooners lost a 24-19 decision to Kansas St. and fell by a 30-13 count against Notre Dame.
Since the loss to the Fighting Irish, OU has won back-to-back games, including a 35-20 win at Iowa St. as a 13½-point ‘chalk’ two weeks ago. Landry Jones has 2,681 passing yards with an 18/7 TD-INT ratio.
WVU has only been a home underdog once under Holgorsen, losing 47-21 to LSU as five-point puppy last season. OU has a 2-1 spread record as a road favorite this year, but the Sooners are 6-9 ATS in such spots since 2009.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for both teams.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
College football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 12
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 12 of the season.
Odds are not available for the following ranked teams this week:
(4) Alabama, (9) South Carolina, (5) Georgia, (6) Florida, (8) Texas A&M
(10) Florida State at Maryland (31, 45.5)
The Seminoles boast the FBS' best defense (242.9 yards per game) and will present a difficult challenge for Maryland, which mustered a season-low 180 total yards in its 45-10 setback to Clemson last week. With season-ending injuries to four QBs, converted linebacker Shawn Petty is taking his lumps at quarterback for the Terrapins. Petty made his second consecutive start last week and threw for only 41 yards while fumbling twice. Maryland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.
Iowa at (21) Michigan (-16.5, 46.5)
Michigan coach Brady Hoke isn’t tipping his cap about the chances of injured senior QB Denard Robinson (elbow) playing in his final home game. The Wolverines have no reason to rush him back because of the solid play of backup Devin Gardner, who has passed for 230-plus yards in back-to-back victories. The Hawkeyes have won three straight over Michigan and the underdog is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Rutgers at (22) Cincinnati (-6, 48)
Cincinnati has rebounded from two straight losses with a pair of victories and comes in with the top scoring and rushing offense in the Big East. But Rutgers can lean on its defense, which is fifth in the nation in points against (13.4) and 14th in yards against. On offense, the Scarlet Knights may be without standout RB Jawan Jamison, who suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over Army. Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games.
(25) Washington at Colorado (20.5, 54.5)
Washington looks for a fourth straight win Saturday when it travels to Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight and are allowing a nation-worst 47.2 points per game - on pace to shatter the school record for points allowed and to register the worst win-loss mark in school history. Colorado has failed to cover in its last five home games and Washington is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus a team with a losing record.
(18) USC at (17) UCLA (3.5, 66)
The Trojans trail the Bruins by a half-game in the Pac-12 South and the winner advances to the Pac-12 title game. USC has won five straight and 12 of the last 13 meetings with UCLA, including a 50-0 blasting last season when Matt Barkley threw for 423 yards and six touchdown passes. The Bruins have resurfaced impressively this season under first-year coach Jim Mora and have won four consecutive games. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Minnesota at (14) Nebraska (-20, 53)
The Cornhuskers are tied for first in the Big Ten Division with Michigan, but control their own destiny by virtue of their 23-9 victory over the Wolverines on Oct. 27. The Cornhuskers have taken the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, including a 41-14 decision last season. Nebraska is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games.
(23) Texas Tech at (24) Oklahoma State (-10, 73.5)
Texas Tech barely survived the Jayhawks last week as Seth Doege, who leads the nation with 34 touchdown passes, threw for 476 yards and three scores in a 41-34 double-overtime victory. The Red Raiders have allowed an average of 232.5 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground over the last four games. That’s not good news because Oklahoma State RB Joseph Randle leads the Big 12 in rushing, averaging 112 yards per game. Texas Tech is 1-6 ATS in its last seven meetings with Oklahoma State.
North Carolina State at (11) Clemson (-16.5, 65)
Tajh Boyd has passed for 1,033 yards and 13 touchdowns in his past three games to help the Tigers keep pace with Florida State in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Clemson has won six in a row since falling at Florida State, and ranks sixth in the nation in points per game (42.9). The Wolfpack destroyed Wake Forest last week and already pulled off an upset over ranked FSU on Oct. 6. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Mississippi at (7) LSU (-18.5, 49.5)
The Tigers are not in the national title picture, but they are contenders for a BCS bowl game if they handle the Rebels and then Arkansas the next Friday in Fayetteville. Ole Miss has given up 27.7 points per game in SEC play, the fifth-highest average in the league. That does not bode well against an LSU squad coming off one of its better offensive showings against Mississippi State. The Rebels, who are 8-0 ATS in their last eight trips to Death Valley, need one win in their final two games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2009.
Wake Forest at (3) Notre Dame (-23.5, 42)
The Fighting Irish need to win out and get some help to finish in the top two of the BCS and play for the National Championship. Wake Forest is hoping to become bowl eligible with a win but is 1-3 on the road and is coming off a 37-6 loss at North Carolina State. The Demon Deacons have been held to fewer than 20 points in four of their last five games and will be trying to find the end zone against a Notre Dame team that is first nationally in scoring defense, surrendering an average of 11.1 points. The Fighting Irish are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Utah State at (20) Louisiana Tech (3.5, 73.5)
The Bulldogs can draw one step closer to a Western Athletic Conference title and keep their BCS dreams alive with a home win over Utah State on Saturday. The Aggies are tied with Louisiana Tech for the WAC lead and will put their tough defense up against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is averaging 576.5 yards to lead the nation but Utah State boasts the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the country, surrendering 13.5 points. The Aggies can put up points, too, and have scored at least 38 in each of their last four games as they’ve ripped through the WAC. The over is 9-1 in Louisiana Tech’s last 10 games overall.
(12) Oklahoma at West Virginia (11, 74.5)
Oklahoma still has slim hopes of winning the Big 12 Conference if Kansas State stumbles badly, but the Sooners are also in contention for a BCS bowl bid as they head to West Virginia. The Sooners allowed a season-high point total in a 42-34 victory over Baylor last week that may have provided a blueprint on how they will attack West Virginia. Oklahoma used as many as seven defensive backs against pass-happy Baylor, but wound up surrendering 252 yards rushing. West Virginia is mired in a four-game losing streak and has failed to cover during the losing skid.
(1) Kansas State at Baylor (12.5, 74.5)
Expect plenty of offense when Kansas State travels to Baylor for a Big 12 showdown. The Wildcats, who are two wins away from a trip to their first BCS National Championship Game, score on 53 percent of their offensive possessions and put points on the board on every 1.8 drives. Baylor’s pass offense is ranked No. 2 in the nation but its pass defense is ranked 116th in the country, allowing an average of 367.7 yards per game. The over is 5-1 in Kansas State’s last six games versus a team with a losing record.
(13) Stanford at (2) Oregon (-20.5, 65)
The Ducks can move one step closer to a national title when they host Stanford in a contest that could decide the Pac-12 Conference North Division. Oregon continued its stampede through the conference by overcoming a slow start in a 59-17 demolition of California to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 13 games. Stanford, a winner of four consecutive games, will move into a tie atop the North Division and be in position to play for the conference championship with a win. Oregon has won nine of the last 10 meetings, including lopsided victories the past two seasons by scores of 53-30 and 52-31. The Ducks have scored more than 50 points seven times this season and are averaging a staggering 63.7 points in their last three. The over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the schools.
California at (16) Oregon State (-14.5, 48)
The Beavers look to rebound following their crucial loss at Stanford a week ago which knocked them into third place in the Pac-12 South Division. It was only the third time in the last 55 games that the Beavers blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost. Oregon State is 4-0 at home this season but may be without the services of QB Cody Vaz, who is dealing with an ankle injury. California is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference games and last four games overall.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
USC at UCLA: What Bettors Need to Know
USC at UCLA (-3.5, 66.5)
All that preseason chatter about Matt Barkley coming back to win a national championship sounds a little bit silly with No. 21 Southern California needing to beat No. 16 UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday just to win its half of the Pac-12. The Trojans trail the Bruins by a half-game in the Pac-12 South and the winner advances to the Pac-12 title game. USC has won five straight and 12 of the last 13 meetings with UCLA, including a 50-0 trouncing last season when Barkley threw for 423 yards and six touchdown passes. The Bruins have resurfaced impressively this season under first-year coach Jim Mora and have won four consecutive games.
LINE: USC –3.5, O/U 66.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 6 mph.
ABOUT USC (7-3, 5-3 Pac-12 South): Barkley has passed for 2,972 yards and 33 touchdowns, but his senior season has been mildly disappointing because of his 13 interceptions, the Trojans’ 26 turnovers and USC’s three defeats. Sophomore receiver Marqise Lee has been USC’s top offensive player with 98 receptions for 1,447 yards and 13 touchdowns. Lee’s 144.7 receiving yards per game ranks second nationally. Junior tailback Silas Redd is expected to return after missing the Nov. 10 contest against Arizona State with a knee injury. USC has committed 13 turnovers over its last three games. Senior free safety T.J. McDonald has a team-best 83 tackles, junior defensive end Morgan Breslin has a team-high 9.5 sacks and sophomore strong-side linebacker Dion Bailey leads with four interceptions.
ABOUT UCLA (8-2, 5-2): Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has been superb and a key figure in the Bruins’ rise. Hundley has passed for 2,739 yards and 24 touchdowns and has been intercepted only nine times. Senior running back Johnathan Franklin has racked up 1,270 yards and has topped 100 yards seven times. UCLA has an opportunistic defense that has forced 25 turnovers, including 13 interceptions. Senior strong safety Andrew Abbott and senior cornerback Sheldon Price are tied for the team lead with four apiece. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr leads the Bruins in sacks (11) and tackles for losses (17).
* Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Bruins’ last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.
1. USC leads the series 46-28-7, but UCLA has an 8-7 edge in games played at the Rose Bowl.
2. A victory would allow Mora to match Terry Donahue (nine in 1976) for most wins by a first-year UCLA coach.
3. USC’s McDonald is the older brother of UCLA sophomore safety Tevin McDonald. Their father, Tim, is a former USC All-American and NFL Pro Bowl safety.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Stanford at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know
Stanford at Oregon (-20.5, 65.5)
Oregon has ascended to No. 1 in the country and has a clear - albeit dangerous - path to the BCS championship game. The Ducks can move one step closer to a national title when they host No. 13 Stanford on Saturday in a contest that could decide the Pac-12 Conference North Division. Oregon continued its stampede through the conference by overcoming a slow start in a 59-17 demolition of California to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 13 games. Stanford, a winner of four consecutive games since a 20-13 loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 13, is looking to do more than play spoiler against the Ducks. A victory Saturday will move the Cardinal into a tie atop the North Division, and put them in position to play for the conference championship.
LINE: Oregon -20.5, O/U 65.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 4 mph.
ABOUT STANFORD (8-2, 6-1 Pac-12): Quarterback Kevin Hogan turned in a dazzling performance in his first career start last week, guiding the Cardinal to a 27-23 victory over Oregon State. The redshirt freshman will face a daunting task in attempting to keep up with Oregon's race-horse offense. Hogan threw for 254 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 49 yards rushing last week. Running back Stepfan Taylor balanced the offense with 114 yards and a touchdown and went over 1,000 yards for the third straight season. Stanford's hopes could hinge on the ability of its top-ranked rushing defense (58.6 yards per game) to shut down an Oregon rushing attack that ranks third nationally with 325.1 yards.
ABOUT OREGON (10-0, 7-0 Pac-12): While the Ducks took over the top spot in the coaches poll, they are No. 2 behind Kansas State in the BCS standings - a fact that doesn't concern coach Chip Kelly. “It means absolutely nothing if we don’t go out and win this Saturday,” he said. Oregon had averaged more than 400 yards rushing in each of its three wins prior to last week's matchup with Cal, but got a stellar performance from quarterback Marcus Mariota, who tied a school record with six touchdown passes and a career-high 377 yards. Leading rusher Kenjon Barner, who shredded USC for 321 yards and five touchdowns the previous week, was held to 65 yards. The Ducks have scored more than 50 points seven times and are averaging a staggering 63.7 points in their last three.
* Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four road games.
* Over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
* Stanford is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in Oregon.
1. Oregon has won nine of the last 10 meetings, including lopsided victories the past two seasons by scores of 53-30 and 52-31. The Cardinal haven't won at Autzen Stadium since 2001.
2. Taylor became the first player in school history to register three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.
3. Oregon's average victory margin in Pac-12 play this season is 33.7 points.
Re: College Football Week 12 Betting News and Notes
Great Betting Tidbits for Week 12
Don't click that "confirm" button on your college football wagers until you browse our Week 12 betting news and notes. For notes and tips on all the Top 25 games, check out our Week 12 betting cheat sheet.
- Maryland continues to go with linebacker-turned-quarterback Shawn Petty under center. Petty will take the snaps again versus Florida State Saturday, after going just 6-for-12 passing for 41 yards and a TD in last week’s loss to Clemson. Head coach Randy Edsall has dumbed down the playbook for Petty and is running some option offense, which Petty ran in high school, to better accommodate the QB. Petty will have WR Stefon Diggs down field this week. Diggs is probable versus FSU after injuring his ankle.
- Northwestern has been a thorn in the side of Michigan State for a long time, posting a 5-0 ATS mark in its last five meetings with the Spartans in East Lansing. Michigan State’s four Big Ten losses have come by a combined 10 points.
- Saturday’s battle between Kent State and Bowling Green will determine which team will play in the MAC Championship Game. The Falcons, who are 2.5-point favorites, are just 2-6 in their last eight meetings with the Golden Flashes.
- The top two teams in the C-USA face off when Central Florida visits Tulsa (-1.5) Saturday. With both teams on top of their respective C-USA division, this is a possible preview of the championship game. A win would guarantee home-field advantage in the C-USA title game. The Golden Hurricane don’t want to head to Orlando, where UCF has won 14 of its last 16 conference games.
- Penn State (-17.5) will be without redshirt freshman tight end Kyle Carter versus Indiana Saturday. Carter is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a wrist injury in last week’s loss to Nebraska. Carter is the Nittany Lions’ second-leading receiver with 453 yards on 36 catches this season. The tight ends have played a big role in PSU’s offense, which is 39th in passing (268.8 yards per game) in the country.
- Houston RB Charles Sims is "very, very doubtful” for Saturday’s game against Marshall (-3.5), according to Cougars head coach Tony Levine. Sims, who is the fourth-leading rusher in the C-USA with 849 yards, is nursing an injured ankle and isn’t the only UH skill player dealing with an ailment. Receiver Daniel Spencer is out due to a leg injury and QB David Piland was limited in practice with a hand injury this week. He’s listed as probable.
- Temple RB Montel Harris is probable for Saturday’s game against Army. Harris, the fifth-leading rusher in the Big East (74.63 yards per game), is dealing with a knee injury suffered against Cincinnati last week. "Montel's doing well," Owls coach Steve Addazio told reporters. "Just got to give it a little rest and see how that goes, but I feel good about him."
- Rutgers is waiting on RB Jawan Jamison, who is dealing with a sprained ankle. Head coach Kyle Flood told the media Jamison was 75 percent and expects him to play versus Cincinnati (-6) Saturday. Jamison is the second-leading rusher in the Big East, averaging 105.89 yards per game.
- Mississippi State expects RB LaDarius Perkins to return versus Arkansas (+6) this weekend. Perkins, the SEC’s third-leading rusher (89.33 yards per game), missed last week’s loss to LSU with a strained quadriceps muscle. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 in their last five meetings with Arkansas.
- Virginia Tech (-9.5) is mired in its first three-game losing streak since 2002 and is in danger of missing bowl season for the first time in 20 years, heading to Boston College Saturday. Quarterback Logan Thomas holds some of the blame, passing for two touchdowns and six interceptions during that skid.
- Memphis (+10) and UAB meet in what will likely be the final Battle for the Bones, with the Tigers jumping to the Big East next season. The Blazers will jump on the back of RB Darrin Reaves, who has rushed for 573 total yards over the past three games (191 yards per game). The sophomore has seven rushing touchdowns in that span.
- Eastern Michigan switched QBs in last week’s loss to Central Michigan, changing out Tyler Benz for Alex Gillett in the second half. Gillett posted 250 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns but isn’t expected to see more time against Western Michigan (-13.5) this weekend. Benz is the better passer and has started seven straight games.
- Miami’s cupboard is bare of WR options against South Florida (+6.5) Saturday. Phillip Dorsett, Allen Hurns, Herb Waters and Kendal Thompkins are the only scholarship receivers available without dipping into the redshirt reserves. Wideout Davon Johnson is out for the season with a leg injury and WR Rashawn Scott remains suspended.
- Off-field issues are hounding Washington State this week with allegations of abuse being made by former WR Marquess Wilson towards head coach Mike Leach. Leach was given his walking papers at Texas Tech after similar claims were made. On the field, Leach may balance time at QB between sophomore Connor Halliday and senior Jeff Tuel versus Arizona State (-21.5) Saturday.
- UMass is bound for a letdown versus Buffalo (-11) Saturday. The Minutemen snapped their winless skid, picking up their first victory of the season – and in the FBS - over Akron last week. UMass head coach Charley Molnar hopes his squad won’t suffer from a hangover. “I think once you get to practice … it’ll be behind them,” Molnar told the Daily Collegian. “It’ll long be gone. They can sit and think about it maybe in the winter if they choose to, but right now our focus has really now moved onto the University (at) Buffalo.”
- Georgia Tech is feeling a little bit of pressure hosting Duke (+13.5) Saturday. The Yellow Jackets need a win to become bowl eligible, and that victory is easier to come by versus the Blue Devils than against Georgia, who GT faces in its final game of the schedule.
- Boise State is missing four starters on its kick coverage squad and its starting to show up on special teams. The Broncos have allowed two 100-yard kickoff return TDs in each of the past two games, watching SDSU average 37.75 yards per return and Hawaii average 28.71 yards per return in those contests. Boise State is a 28-point favorite versus Colorado State, which ranks 32nd in kick returns in the country (23.6 yards per return) Saturday.
- Southern Methodist (-3.5), which visits Rice this weekend, is a two-faced team when hitting the highway. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS as hosts but just 1-3 ATS away from University Park. SMU is averaging just 18.2 points on the road (36.8 points per game at home) while allowing 41.4 points against (22.2 points at home).
- Wisconsin already has a ticket to the Big Ten title game in hand heading into Saturday’s game with Ohio State. Thanks to bowl bans for the Buckeyes and Penn State, the Badgers secured their spot atop the Leaders Division with a win over Indiana last week. With Saturday’s game not holding any weight, Wisconsin could rest players in preparation of the postseason. “I think I might have a mutiny on my hands if I tried to pull anyone out of this game on Saturday,” head coach Bret Bielema told the media when asked if he’d rest players.
- Navy (-13.5) is the popular play with Covers Consensus players in their home tilt with Texas State Saturday. As of Friday afternoon, 71.51 percent of consensus picks are on the Middies – the third-most popular pick on the Week 12 board.
- Illinois is one of the worst bets in college football, going 2-8 ATS this season including a seven-game ATS drought heading into Saturday’s game with Purdue (-6). The Illini are averaging just 10.5 points per Big Ten game.
- UL Monroe is the second-most popular pick among Covers Consensus players, with 72.39 percent of picks coming in on the Warhawks -10.5 versus North Texas Saturday. UL Monroe is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games with the Mean Green.
- UNLV is looking for some home-field advantage hosting Wyoming Saturday. The Runnin’ Rebels have played well at Sam Boyd Stadium and, according to the Las Vegas Sun, has held second-half leads in five of their six home games this season. UNLV is averaging 29.7 point at home and just 20 points per game on the road.
- Kansas (74 percent) and Iowa State (75.6 percent) are first and third, respectively, in the Big 12 in red-zone defense. Both have forced five red-zone turnovers. The Jayhawks are 4.5-point underdogs at home.
- Tennessee is averaging 37.9 points (second in the SEC) behind junior quarterback Tyler Bray, who has averaged 434 passing yards in his past three games. The Vols have played over in all nine games with odds this season and face a 60-point number visiting Vanderbilt Saturday. The under, however, is 5-1 in the last six meeting between these rivals.
- Syracuse has not beaten an SEC opponent in a true road game since 1990 when it defeated Vanderbilt 49-14. The Orange are 5.5-point underdogs in Missouri Saturday.
- Arizona is expected to have QB Matt Scott under center against Utah (-1) Saturday after missing last week due to a concussion. Scott leads the Pac-12 in passing yards per game (316.4), passing for 20 TDs and nine INTs this season.
- BYU is up against a powerful San Jose State passing attack Saturday. The Cougars last game versus a high-flying air game was a 42-24 loss to Oregon State, which passed for 332 yards. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has had to switch up from his nickel defense due to the absence of starting safety Joe Sampson, who was suspended for his role in a brawl on Halloween.
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