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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 8

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 8

DUNKEL INDEX

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3)

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.428; Jacksonville 125.085
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

NCAAF

Florida State at Virginia Tech
The Seminoles look to take advantage of a Virginia Tech team that is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. Florida State is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14)

Game 107-108: Florida State at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 108.992; Virginia Tech 89.771
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 19; 49
Vegas Line: Florida State by 14; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14); Under

Game 109-110: UL-Monroe at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 90.359; Arkansas State 80.302
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 10; 64
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 7; 59
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+7); Over

NBA

Oklahoma City at Chicago
The Bulls look to take advantage of an Oklahoma City team that is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games. Chicago is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2)

Game 701-702: Oklahoma City at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 123.890; Chicago 126.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Over

Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.191; Portland 115.546
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1; 202
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-1 1/2); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 8

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder vs. Bulls    
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of teams that know how to play defense meet in Chicago. Chicago plays great defense for demanding coach Tom Thibedeau, on a 12-4 run under the total. The under is 13-3 in the Bulls' last 16 games playing on one days rest. Oklahoma City can play any style, but against the more physical East they have to rub more elbows: The under is 21-10-1 in the Thunder's last 32 vs. the Eastern Conference. And when these teams meet the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play the Thunder/Bulls under the total.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Chicago Bulls    
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Thunder fit the nice system below that plays on road favorites of 4 or less with 1 day of rest that scored 100 or more as a home favorite while shooting 45% or more and having 25 or less assists, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite while also shooting 45% or higher and had 25 or more assists. These road favorites are 10-1 with 9 spread covers.. The Thunder were 7-1 straight up and to the spread vs teams that allowed 91 or less last season and should take the Bulls here tonight. Take Oklahoma City here tonight.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State vs Virginia Tech
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This has been a tremendously disappointing campaign for Virginia Tech, and they're in hot water tonight against powerful Florida State. But this is also a chance for the Hokies to salvage something meaningful out of the season, and they're sure to be revved up tonight. Gotta side with the home dog Virginia Tech side at this number.

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Jeff Scott SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State -14 over VIRGINIA TECH:  This is not your normal Hokies squad. they are inconsistent on offense, their defense is not doing good and they have had plenty of breakdowns in special teams. Not good when your about to face a Florida State team that has one of the better defenses in the Nation, has had a week off before this one and is seeking revenge for a 44-33 loss to these Hokies back in 2010. The Hokie offense comes in averaging just 14.5 ppg in their last 2 games and must now face an FSU team that has allowed just 13.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The FSU offense has been very good all year, but even more special in their last 3 games, averaging 552 ypg and 44 ppg. They will be taking on a struggling Hokie defense that has allowed 32.6 ppg in their last 5 games. This is not a good Hokie defense as in years past and wil have a problem slowing down the Noles in this one. Va Tech has been blown out in their last 2 losses, vs Miami and Clemson, and they had problems with Duke, while both FSU and Clemson blew them out. Florida State is the better team in all phases of this game and should with this one by at least 20 points.

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Frank JordanFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Florida StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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FSU is the number 10 team in the country with an 8-1 record and 5-1 in the ACC as they head to Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech is 4-5 on the season and has just two wins in five ACC games. FSU is 3-0 since their lone loss of the season outscoring their opponents 132-34 in those three games. Florida State simply has too much momentum and fire power for Virginia Tech to handle so look for FSU to stay hot and win their fourth in a row. Play FSU

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Jeff Scott SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indy/ Jacksonville Over 42.5: Andrew Luck has been special this year and he will be facing a weak Jags defense that has allowed 256 ypg passing on the year. He and the league's leading WR, Reggie Wayne, should hook up for some big plays in this one. What also will help the Colt offense is a running game that has gotten in gear to the tune of 139 ypg in their last 3 games. That should help open up some of the throwing lanes. The Jags offense is the worst in the league but they will be taking on a Colts defense that has allowed 29 ppg on the road this year. I expect the Jags to open up the playbook a bit here for the TV audience and allow Gabbart to try and make some big plays. With Drew out the Jags may have to turn to the pass even more in this one. Jag home games have averaged 43.5 ppg, while Colt road games have put up 47 ppg. Look for both of these young QB's to try and put on a show for the cameras as this one hits at least 47 points.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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JACKSONVILLE +3 +106 over Indianapolis
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Nothing like Thursday night football featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tongue removed from cheek, it’s not easy to make a case for this host as they have yet to win here in four tries and have not come within 17 points of a guest. However, Jacksonville’s only win of the year took place in Indianapolis on a late Cecil Shorts touchdown. The Colts were a 3-point choice in that one and now they are the same 3-points as visitors?
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Andrew Luck and Colts playing well but this is still a divisional home game on a short week. It’s also sandwiched between last week’s come from behind win over Miami and next week’s huge game in New England. The win over the Dolphins last week was followed by one of the most documented and emotionally charged speeches of the season by head man, Chuck Spagano. In his first return to the stadium since being diagnosed with leukemia, the entire Colts team played their hearts out for him. This is a big letdown spot and indicators suggest we go against the flow here. No units risked.
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VIRGINIA TECH +13½ -108 over Florida State
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Prior to Week 3, the Hokies were ranked #13 and were a 10-point road choice at Pittsburgh. They lost that game 35-17 and it’s been a train wreck ever since. This game tonight was projected to be one of the marquee games of the year for both squads but as it turns out, the Hokies are playing for a little salvation only and believe it or not, if this game were scheduled for Week 3, Virginia Tech likely would’ve been favored. In other words, the Hokies stock has hit rock bottom but let’s not ignore that they’re 4-0 at home and their front four figured to be one of the best in the country.
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The Seminoles signature win came against Clemson but other than that it’s been a weak schedule with wins against Wake Forest, Murray St., Savannah St., South Florida, Boston College, Miami and Duke. FSU lost to North Carolina State. As a result of this marshmallow schedule, ‘Noles QB EJ Manual has posted some big numbers but it’s not that believable. State also coughed up the football 10 times over its last two games and although they won both times, they may not be so lucky at Lane Stadium. Manuel will see a heavy dose of pressure from this undervalued defense that was projected to be a top five unit. In the end, FSU represents the Hokies' chance at redemption and the Seminoles figure to get Virginia Tech's best shot. Expect this one to be scary close with an upset possibility.

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Charlie Sports

Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The (2-2) Oklahoma City Thunder of the NBA Western Conference Northwest division will take on the (3-1) Chicago Bulls of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division in 2012 NBA action. The under is 5-1 the last 6 between the teams. The Thunder is 2-1-1 against the spread this season and the under is 3-1. The Chicago Bulls are 1-3 ATS their four games played this season. The Thunder traded star James Harded last week and the Bulls are still without All Star guard Derek Rose. Oklahoma city gets the road cover-2.

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John Ryan

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

The simulator shows a high probability that Portland will win this game. Portland is doing a great job with ball handling in the start to the NBA season. They rank fifth averaging just 13.2 turnovers per game. Clippers have not done well against these types of strong ball handling teams. They are just 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Clippers have not done a good job protecting the ball and rank 27th in the NBA averaging 18.0 turnovers per game and 27th having a turnover 16.6% of all ball possessions. Clips defense is doing a good job forcing opponents into turnovers ranking second in the NBA at 18.2 turnovers per game. Portland?s ball handlers and play makers can minimize the Clippers defensive pressure in this matchup. I like Portland to win this game.

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Jimmy Boyd

Arkansas State -7

Since losing their conference opener 26-13 at home to Western Kentucky, the Red Wolves have rattled off four consecutive wins over Sun Belt foes. They are 3-1 ATS in these games. Going back to last season, they are on a 9-3 ATS run in conference play.

Arkansas State has won three of its four home games this season, and its last two home wins have come by at least seven points. It has been an all-around solid bet at 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games.

It is also worth noting that the Warhawks are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Red Wolves have won two in a row and three of their last four against Louisiana-Monroe. They have won their two home games during this stretch by eight and 14 points, respectively.

Arkansas State won last season’s meeting 24-19 on the road despite a poor performance from quarterback Ryan Aplin, who completed 27 of 43 passes for 261 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.

I don’t anticipate Aplin playing that poorly again. The senior has completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 2,169 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He could be poised for a big day throwing the football against a Louisiana-Monroe defense that ranks 104th in the country against the pass with 263.9 yards allowed per game.

Arkansas State is on a 9-2 ATS run versus poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 37.4 to 19.9. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 8

Jack Jones

Thunder/Bulls UNDER 191

I fully expect a defensive battle tonight between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Chicago Bulls in the first game of a double-header on TNT Thursday. These National TV games always seem to bring better effort defensively than games that aren't nationally televised.

Both Chicago and Oklahoma City like to get after it defensively as it is. Both are well-coached and rarely take nights off. The Bulls are allowing just 88.7 points/game through four games this season, while the Thunder are giving up just 92.5 points/game through four contests as well.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the Thunder and Bulls. Four of the last five meetings have seen 189 or less combined points. As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series when these teams get together.

The UNDER is 21-10-1 in Thunder last 32 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Thursday games. The UNDER is 13-3 in Bulls last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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Jim Kruger

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars

Who doesn’t want Indianapolis to win every game? It is hard not to be touched by the post-game appearance by Chuck Pagano, the Colts head coach who is fighting leukemia. Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck is showing why he was the first pick in the draft with a #4 QBR rating. This is a very young team with 22 players being 24 years old or younger.

On the flip side, it is hard to even consider backing hapless Jacksonville, even at home where they have been outscored in their four games, 126 to 34. Offensively, the Jaguars are basically the worst team in the league. They lost their stud RB Maurice Jones-Drew to a foot injury and second-year QB Blaine Gabbert has been erratic which explains his #30 QBR rating.

The Jaguars did beat Indy early in the season, 22-17, even though they were outgained by 104 yards. Jax does have a superior defense to Indy and has played a tougher schedule season-to-date. A Thursday night home game for a team with zero playoff chances this season playing against a squad who is off of an emotional high, sets this game up well for Jacksonville. The only side I can be on in this game is with the Jaguars. I will put a small recreational bet on Jacksonville +3.5 but I don’t like the Jags enough to make it a Premium Pick.

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Joe Gavazzi

LA Clippers at Portland Trailblazers
Play: Portland Trailblazers

Clippers got their playoff sweep revenge last night in style. At last they put on the defensive clamps. It broke the strangle hold that the Spurs had in that series. They held the Spur to just 41% from the field, forced 20 TOs and outrebounded SA 46-29. Now they must try to turn around another series history on a court where they stand 6-26 SU. They will be doing so in their 1st true road game of the year in the dreaded home win and travel scenario. PG Paul, with an injured wheel, is often not as effective in the second of back to back games. Great spot for a much improved Portland team with Aldridge and Batum up front and Matthews and Lillard in the back court to steal a victory.

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HARRY BONDI

FLORIDA STATE (-13.5) over Virginia Tech

Expect a fully focused effort tonight from the Seminoles, who come in fresh off a bye week and need victories in their final two conference games to punch a ticket to the ACC championship game and their first BCS bowl invite in seven years. Virginia Tech will be overpowered on both sides of the ball as FSU is the only team in the country ranked in the Top-10 in the nation for both offense and defense. The Hokies have been a money-eater dating back a couple of seasons covering just five of their last 21 games overall, while going 2-8 ATS at home in their last 10 and 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams. Seminoles roll!

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Scott Delaney

My free winner tonight is out of the NBA, where I'm playing the home underdog Chicago Bulls, catching points from the defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who are laying 2.5 points.

Injured star Derrick Rose is still out, recovering from reconstructive ACL surgery that will have him out until at least after the All-Star break, but the Bulls are playing as if there's nothing wrong with this team whatsoever. Now 3-1 on the young season, the Bulls responded to Saturday's 89-82 home loss to New Orleans with a solid 99-93 win over previously undefeated Orlando on Tuesday.

And even though this is still a team that tends to struggle offensively, without Rose to pace the scoring, the Bulls remain one of the league's top defensive teams, allowing just 88.8 points per game. And that's exactly what we're going to see tonight, as the Bulls will be at their best against an Oklahoma City team that has struggled to figure out whose identity will lead the offense - point guard Russell Westbrook or shooting forward Kevin Durant.

The Thunder look good, and dominating, against weaker competition, I'll give them that. But it's teams like the Bulls that can rattle O-K-C. Look for a strong defensive effort from Chicago as it challenges for the outright win.

3♦ CHICAGO

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Chuck O'Brien
                                     
Now, for your complimentary play, as I look to make it four in a row after hitting the Golden State Warriors last night, while improving upon a long-term 128-93-3 mark, I'm going to play the Over in the Clippers-Trail Blazers game. That's right, my free winner is the total from the game I have a 20 Dimer, which makes this game even more intriguing if you want to make some easy money.

After last night's rout of the San Antonio Spurs, the Clippers have now gone over in four of their five contests, which should come as no surprise when you look at the fact the they have the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. Los Angeles is averaging 104.6 points per contest just five games into the season. Last night was the first night the Clips went under, as the Spurs coudn't do much offensively.

Tonight  I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting into a shootout with Los Angeles, as they've been off since Monday, when they finished up a three-game road trip through the Southwest, playing in Oklahoma City, Houston and Dallas. In their only home game this season, the Blazers took it to the Los Angeles Lakers, 116-106, on Halloween. Portland isn't too far behind the Clips, as it's ranked eighth in the league with its 98.5 points per game average.

Defensively speaking, the Blazers are allowing 102.7 points per game (fifth-worst in the NBA) while the Clippers are yielding 98.6 points per contest (13th-worst in the league).

Looking at the trends for these teams, the over is certainly at an advantage, as it comes in on winning runs of 4-0 after a Clippers in both SU and ATS, 5-2 when they take on a Northwest Division foe and 5-1 overall. With the Blazers, the over is on winning runs of 4-1 against Pacific Division teams and 7-3 at home. The over is also on a 10-1 run when these two meet in the city of Roses.

2♦ OVER Clippers-Blazers

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Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Thunder as the road favorite over the Bulls.

Chicago has done a credible job starting the season with Mr. Rose, as the Bulls have won three of four to start the season. I say tonight is a struggle spot for Chicago, as the kings of the West - Oklahoma City pay a weeknight visit.

OKC is still adjusting to their rotation now that James Harden is in a Houston uniform, but they did look solid their last time out with the home win and cover over Toronto.

Granted, Chicago is a step up the competition ladder, but Oklahoma City does own straight up wins over the Bulls in four of the last seven meetings, and the Thunder is a positive 8-3 against the spread their last 11 visits to the Windy City.

Go with the Thunder to take care of business tonight against the Rose-less Bulls.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

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Chris Jordan

Now, let's talk about my complimentary winner for tonight, as I look to win my fourth-straight freebie and improve on this 12-5 run with comp releases. I'm going to take a look at the total in the added college football game, Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas State, since I really love the Over in this Sun Belt Conference showdown in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

This is tailor-made for a shootout tonight, especially with both of them sitting in a three-way tie atop the Sun Belt Conference with a 4-1 league mark, along with Middle Tennessee State.

We're talking about two of the more impressive offenses in the league, as Monroe ranks No. 1 with scoring offense, while Arkansas State is third-best in the Sun Belt in scoring. Overall, Arkansas State has the No. 2 offense and the Warhawks have the third-ranked offense. Louisiana Monroe has scored less than 31 points just twice over its nine games; similarly, the Red Wolves have scored less than 33 points two times in their nine games.

Tossing out those two lower-scoring games for both teams, they both are averaging 40 points per game. With this one being televised on ESPNU, you best believe they'll be out to put on a show for several bowl game committees, looking to show what an exciting brand of football they could bring to the postseason.

Checking a sampling of the betting trends with this total, the Warhawks roll in on over runs of 9-0 on turf, 5-1 after losing on the field, 4-1 after losing at the books, 21-7 against winning teams and 7-2 overall. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has gone over in two of its last three games.

Play this one high, as these rivals are going into the 60s.

5♦ OVER UL Monroe/Arkansas St

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Matt Rivers

My Thursday night comp play is the Under in tonight's Colts-Jags AFC South battle.

Second go-round for these two teams, and the first meeting in Indy did stay Under the total to make it three straight series meetings having held low.

Indianapolis has been playing them on the low-side of late, as each of their last three games, and five of their last seven have stayed Under the posted price.

As for Jacksonville, the Jaguars have been held to 15 points or less in five of their last seven games, and the Under has cashed in in four of those seven - including the first meeting with the Colts.

I think this game is going to be a ball control type of a game, and I do not see a whole lot of scoring going on.

Make it four straight series Unders for the Colts and Jaguars.

2♦ INDIANAPOLIS-JACKSONVILLE UNDER

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