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Ole Miss -6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's amazing how fast Auburn has fallen out of the national spotlight and into the basement of the SEC. After losing at home to Arkansas by a final score of 7-24, the Tigers are now 1-4 with their only win coming at home against ULM 31-28 in overtime.
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Auburn simply doesn't have the talent or the coaching to compete in the SEC right now. The play at quarterback has been about as bad I have seen in some time. Keihl Frazer and Clint Mosely would be lucky to find a starting job in the Sun Belt Conference. These two have combined to throw 10 interceptions with just three touchdowns.
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It's not just the quarterback who is playing bad, no one on the offense has been able to step up and give this team some sort of life. Auburn is 106th in passing offense (172.0 ypg) and 91st in rushing (130.4 ypg). I'm confident even Mississippi's average defense can keep them in check, especially after watching Arkansas hold them to a touchdown. The Razorbacks had allowed 145 points over their last three games combined!
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Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC West for a few years now and this is their chance to let someone else feel what it's like to sit in the basement of this loaded division. The Rebels are just 3-3 overall but there's no denying that head coach Hugh Freeze has this team playing much better football. Ole Miss nearly upset a very good Texas A&M team at home last week, losing by a final of just 27-30.
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A lot of people don't realize how much talent the Rebels have on the offensive side of the ball. Starting quarterback Bo Wallace has been the spark plug that got this offense going. He has thrown for 1,145 yards and 8 touchdowns, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores. Jeff Scott and Randall Mackey have combined for 652 yards and eight scores on the ground and Donte Moncrief has caught 27 passes for 453 yards and five touchdowns. The Rebels are going to put points on the board against a Auburn team that is lacking confidence and any real reason to show up on Saturday.
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Hard to see Auburn getting up for this game after two huge games against LSU and Arkansas, who are without question much bigger rivals than Ole Miss. It sets up a very favorable situation to bet Ole Miss. Auburn is 0-8 ATS in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992!

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Wyoming +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force comes in with the slightly better SU record (2-3 SU vs 1-4 SU), but it's the COWBOYS of Wyoming that are the better spread team (3-1 ATS vs 2-2 ATS).
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With uncertainty at the quarterback position for Wyoming, where Brett Smith missed time early in the season and then faced a possible suspension after last week's ejection, this line was up above four points during some of the week. With Smith playing at home for the Cowboys, look for the line to drop even further. In other words, get on this early (though I am not sure Wyoming will end up favored like we have them, so there should be value that remains for the Cowboys no matter what).
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Ultimately, this pick has almost everything to do with Smith, the sophomore quarterback who led Wyoming to a bowl in 2011 in a season where he completed 61% of his passes for 2,622 yards, 20 TDs and 11 INTs while rushing for another 710 yards and 10 TDs. Smith suffered a concussion in a loss to Toledo and missed the game at home against Cal Poly. With Smith, Wyoming is 3-0 against-the-spread with two close road losses and a road win over Idaho. Without him, the Cowboys lost as favorites to Toledo at home and then against Cal Poly the next week. Last week, had he not been ejected for his second unsportsmanlike foul penalty against Nevada, Wyoming, which lost 35-28 in overtime, may have knocked off the Wolf Pack as 16 point underdogs.
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While we have made a strong case that Wyoming is a completely different and pretty good team with its best player in the lineup, Air Force just is not a great football team right now. The Falcons are 2-3 straight-up against just the 122nd ranked FBS schedule. Air Force's lone wins have come over Colorado State, our 107th ranked team, and Idaho State, a 1-4 FCS team. Air Force currently ranks 105th overall. And, not only did the Falcons lose at home, 25-17, to Smith and a similar Wyoming squad last season, Air Force only returned six starters from last year's team that was one of the better and more experienced Air Force teams in recent memory

NCAA Football Game of the Week (2-0 Last 2 weeks) -  Kansas St (-6.5)  *5 Units

Service Plays
Miami (+8)  *3 Units
West Virginia (-3.5)  *3 Units

Upset Pick of the Day (2-0 Last 2 weeks) - South Carolina (+125)  *2 Units

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Louisville vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Louisville
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The Louisville Cardinals (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off B2B road wins 28-21 over Fla. Intl. and 21-17 over Southern Miss. The Cardinals offense is currently ranked 52nd in the nation, putting up an average of 31 PPG.
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QB Teddy Bridgewater has been solid so far with a QB rating of 157.4 and 73% completion for 1,134 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT. Jeremy Wright (389 yards 5 TD) and Senorise Perry (458 yards 5 TD) lead a strong ground attack that has averaged 169.2 YPG, good for 58th.
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The defense has been a big strength for Louisville. They are 28th in PPG allowed (18.6), 25th in total yards allowed (321.4), 35th in rush yards allowed (118.2) and 34th in pass yards allowed (203.2). The Cardinals are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 overall and 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road.
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The Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) suffered a tough 14-13 loss at Syracuse last week. They are 2-1 at home including an impressive 35-17 victory over then #13 Virginia Tech.
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QB Tino Sunseri has been strong with a QB rating of 164.7, 1,463 yards with 8 TD and 2 INT however the run game has struggled averaging 72nd in the nation with 155.4 YPG. Overall the offense has been average scoring 26 PPG ranking them 78th overall in the nation.
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Line backer Shane Gordon (31 tackles 1.5 sacks) leads a Panthers defense that been strong despite the teams losing record. They are 39th in PPG allowed (21.2), 23rd in total yards allowed (320.2), 51st in rush yards allowed (134.8) and 23rd in pass yards allowed (185.4).

The Panthers are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall and 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at Heinz Field.

The Cardinals have lost the last 4 contests with the Panthers; not having beaten Pitt since 2007. This is their first Big East matchup of the season after coming off of a bye week; coach Strong has the team prepared for the task at hand.

Louisville is currently available -3 at most sports books. Take a look at the Cardinalts to win ATS.

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5 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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Iowa State +7 over KANSAS STATE:  This has been a close series of late as the last 3 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Bill Snyder usually puts a lot of emphasis on the Kansas game and he has gone 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS the last 3 years following a game with their instate rivals. Now not only is he coming off a game with Kansas, but he has a game with West Virginia on deck. Im not sure they will be fully focused for this one. Kansas State is mostly about the run, ranking 9th in the country with 262 ypg on the ground, but they will have a tough time moving on the ground in this one as the Cyclones come in ranked 30th vs the run allowing just 115.8 ypg on a mere 3.3 ypc. The KSU defense has a weakness and that is vs the pass as they are 92nd vs the pass allowing 256 ypg.  ISU should be able to exploit that pass defense a bit just like Kansas did last week hitting some big plays, while the game was still close.  The Cyclones have been solid defensively overall, allowing just 15.8 ppg on the year, while at home they have allowed just 16.7 ppg. This is a tough spot for K-State, especially playing at ISU, where the Cyclones play well and have been known to pull some upsets. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST any undefeated from game 5 on out off a DD ATS win vs a .750 or greater opponent that's off a SU & ATS win. Teams in this spot are 3-25-1 since 1980.
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Florida -8.5 over VANDERBILT: The Gators are playing at a very high level right now, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I do not see a letdown from this team in this one. The Gators have been very special on defense, allowing just 284 ypg and 11.4 ppg, but whats more impressive is their 2nd half defense where they have allowed just 13 points all year on ZERO in the 4th quarter. This team that just gets stronger as the game goes on. The Vandy offense is not all that good, despite the fact that they average 366.2 ypg and 21.2 ppg on the year, but a closer look shows us that they average just 306.5 and score just 12 ppg vs FBS foes. For you prop bettors out there I do NOT see the Vandy offense putting up more that 10 points on this defense. On defense Vandy has surprised some but they has still allowed 389.5 ypg and 25.8 ppg vs FBS foes this year. The Gator offense is not flashy, but they will pound you as evidenced by their 214 ypg on the ground and that is not really good for a Vandy team that allow 179 ypg on the ground. That ground game really wears teams out and is a big reason why the Gators have outscored their opponents by a 78-13 count in the second half and a 41-0 count in the 4th quarter. The Gators had a close one last year vs Vandy and the Commodores just came off a road upset of Missouri, so Florida will not take them lightly here. The Gators have just too much defense in this one and will wear down Vandy in the second half on their way to a 17+ point win. 
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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LSU/ South Carolina Under 40: Boy I was surprised to see this line open at 42.5, but not surprised to see it dropping. in watching the Florida/ LSU game it was very evident that the LSU offense is very bad. Sure they have put up 33.5 ppg and 394 ypg, but in their 2 SEC games they have averaged just 9 ppg and 275.5 ypg. Last week the Tigers could muster just 200 yards and 8 first downs vs a very tough Florida defense and will be facing one that is just as good this week. Last week South Carolina allowed a powerful Georgia offense just 224 yards and 7 points, while for the year they allow just 278 ypg and 10.5 ppg. Since allowing 44 points to Arkansas last year the Gamecocks have allowed just 12.1 ppg and has allowed just 2 teams over that stretch to post more than 13 points. This is a tough defense that should have little problems in slowing down this sorry LSU that will have problems vs SEC defenses this year. Now knowing that LSU has offensive problems you can bet that Miles will use field position and his defense to try and win this one. The LSU offense may be bad, but their defense is still solid as ever, allowing just 221 ypg and 12.8 ppg. South Carolina's offense has been very good this year, but not this week at LSU where the Tigers play their best defense. LSU has no shot of winning this game getting into a high scoring game, so I fully expect a conservative game plane from less, knowing that he has a stout defense to keep the Gamecocks under wraps, which will give him his best shot at winning.
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BYU/ Oregon State Under 37: Google News Play This is my kinda game. A tough defensive battle. The BYU Cougars come in allowing just 8.8 ppg on the year (3rd in nation) and they allow just 229 total ypg, which is 5th in the nation. The Cougar defense also ranks first in the nation vs the run, allowing just 59.5 ypg. Now I feel that is significant, because OSU's 9th ranked passing game has taken a hit with the loss of Sean Mannion and they will have to turn to the run more in this one and they only rank 106th in that department this year. That will put young Cody Yaz (48 career passes, 35% comp Pct) in some long yardage downs, which I do not expect him to be able to pick up, especially vs a BYU defense that is 3rd in the nation in 3rd down pct (25%). This team knows how to get their defense off the field, but so does Oregon State as they come in raked first in the nation in 3rd down defense, allowing just 20.4%. The Beaver defense has been stout all year, allowing just 17 ppg (24th) and 355.8 ypg (42nd), while also ranking in the top 5 in rush defense (67.5 ypg), just like BYU. Now like the Beavers, the Cougars also don't run the ball well and they have gotten horrible play from their QB spot, which would indicate that they will too try and establish the run, but against the Beavers run defense I also see them in plenty of long yardage downs as well and they just don't have the weapons to get out of them. This should be a classic field position game with much more defense than offense and im not really expecting this game to escape the 20's.
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TCU/ Baylor Over 68: Google News Play The TCU Horned Frogs showed that they can move the ball last week without Pachall, as they put up 23 points and 455 yards of offense vs a much better defense than they will see in this one. Trevor Boykin threw for 270 yards last week and will take aim at Baylor defense that has allowed 400 yards passing per game on the year so far. Now no matter how good the TCU defense is, they will surrender plenty of points vs a Bears offense that has averaged 601.5 ypg and 543.3 ppg on the year. No One has stopped this offense yet and I don’t expect TCU to be able to stop them either. TCU will have to throw plenty in this game if they hope to stay in it and they should be able to do so with good success, while the Baylor offense will have great success of its own. Baylor’s 3 FBS games this year have averaged 101.7 ppg and I see no reason why this game can’t put at least 80 points on the board. 
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POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY 
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Play AGAINST home dogs of 14.5 or more off a loss of 21 more vs an opponent that is off a game in which 60+ points were scored. This play is 33-6 the last 5 seasons. Play on Oklahoma State -28 over Kansas
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Play AGAINST any road teams off an OT game if they lost ATS in the game and are playing a team off a SU & ATS win.  This play is 21-5 since in its last 26 times it came up, including 11-0 in it's last 11. Play on Notre Dame -7 over Stanford
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Play AGAINST Any undefeated road teams from game 6 on out if they are playing with rest. Teams in this spot are just 5-30 ATS (11-24 SU). Play On Pittsburgh +4 over Louisville

Bob Balfe

Eastern Michigan +14.5 over Toledo
Eastern Michigan has a senior quarterback and running back that is behind a very experienced offensive line. Toledo lost all of their key starters on the defensive line and I expect Eastern Michigan to win the battle up front. Toledo has dominated this series as of late, but this is Eastern Michigan’s best shot for their seniors to get a win against a banged up football team. Toledo did not look that impressive last week against CMU and really won the game on gift interception returns for quick points. Look for EMU to keep this close and to get the cover. Take Eastern Michigan.

Florida State -28 over Boston College
Florida State had a lead over NC State last week on the road and were shocked in the final minutes of that game. Boston College is pretty much without every key starter on defense today and I expect FSU to put them away before halftime. This is a good Florida State Defense looking for revenge for last weeks letdown. Boston College has been horrible on defense this year which is not like them at all. With all of these injuries it should best easy for the Noles to have a field day. Take Florida State.

Auburn +6 over Ole Miss
Last year Auburn was very young and really impressed as they beat some quality teams. This team has a lot of young players with good experience. Ole Miss has young players without experience as they have a lot of first time starters on the field this year. Auburn has a pretty solid defense with a lot of depth on the defensive line. The Tigers played a tough schedule so far this year and their record is not a true indicator of the type of team they are. Auburn has won this game with ease over the past few series and I think the coaching is just better in addition to the players on the field. Look for the Tigers to get a big road win. Take Auburn.

Illinois +25 over Michigan
I don’t know why the odds makers have this game set so high. Illinois might not be having a good season, but they have talent players with a lot of experience. The forecast calls for gusty winds today so throwing perfect balls is going to be tough. Its going to be tough to score and still I cant get over why this line is so high. Michigan never really seems to be able to cover big spreads. A lot would have to go right for them today in addition to Illinois turning the ball over for quick points. I don’t see that happening and think this line has tremendous value. Take Illinois.

Arkansas -17 over Kentucky
Its no secret that Arkansas has struggled this year. When Wilson went down so did their team, but now he is back and I think they will be OK. Kentucky will be without their starting quarterback and running back. On defense they will be missing just about all of their secondary and this team is just flat out bad. Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson could have went to the NFL and made millions. He now is facing his worst nightmare. You can bet this team is going to beat up on anybody once they get a chance to get his numbers back up. Look for Arkansas to win big. Take the Razorbacks.

Texas Tech +4 over WVU
Geno Smith has been the most impressive QB in the nation so far, but he only played one game outside of West Virginia and in the win against Texas was very lucky the game went the way it did with some bonehead plays. Smith has 24 TD passes to 0 INT’s. That is amazing, but lets see how he does against a pretty good veteran defense and against a team that can score a lot with their offense. Texas Tech has a senior quarterback that will also have a big passing day against a WVU Defense that is not that good at all. The more balanced team is Texas Tech, but nobody is talking about them this year. Its hard for a team that is thin at running back to continue to throw the ball all over the field while playing bad defense. Its just a matter of time before it all catches up with them. Take Texas Tech at home.

Rice -2.5 over UTSA
Its very impressive that Texas San Antonio is 5-0 this year, but go look at who they have played. Never in the history of College Football has a program stepped up to D-1 Football and ran the table. This team is not ready to play with bigger programs. Rice is a young team especially on the offensive and defensive line, but instead of playing cup cakes they played some pretty decent teams. Rice is a bigger program and have much better players. They should get the home win here. Take Rice.

JR STEVENS

SYRACUSE +8 (-20) ***UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF THE WEEK***AND MONEYLINE +245)
I don't care that RU is undefeated--they are a HUGE FRAUD! And the Cuse is the perfect team to take them down BIG today! Let's play the Cuse with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road team are a PERFECT 36-0 ATS if seeking revenge for a previous season loss and are facing an opponent who have won at least 3 consecutive SU and ATS wins! PREDICTION: SYRACUSE 30 RUTGERS 17

(PICK: FRESNO STATE +7.5 AND MONEYLINE +250)
Boise is coming off B2B games in which they scored 72 total points so their offense appears to be clicking again!! And today it's only reasonable to think they should blow out Fresno again given the fact they have won the last 6 meetings by a combined score of 299-93. Let's take Fresno with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road teams are a PERFECT 21-0 ATS if they are seeking revenge for B2B blowout losses!! The average line for the past 3 meetings in Boise was 23.5 with nothing lower than 21--there's a reason why the line is more than 2 TDs lower this time around!! PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE 27 BOISE STATE 23

(PICK: VANDERBILT +9 AND MONEYLINE +285)
Florida enters off their biggest win in recent years, a home game, and now has another huge home game on deck (South Carolina), a classic "sandwich" spot! Let's play Vandy with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road faves of 10.5 points or less are a PERFECT 0-24 ATS if coming off a home conference SU win as a dog and facing an opponent playing on revenge! PREDICTION: VANDERBILT 23 FLORIDA 17

(PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA +3 AND MONEYLINE +125)
LSU got shocked last week in Florida so it's only reasonable to think they will rebound at home, right?? WRONG!! Let's play SC with tremendous confidence knowing that certain home conference teams are a PERFECT 0-19 ATS if they are coming off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses and were outgained by their opponent the previous week!! PREDICTION: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 LSU 13

Ray Monohan

Ohio State vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana 

I think Saturday's matchup between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers is closer than most expect. The Hoosiers are quietly playing better football each week. Last week they had a 27-17 fourth quarter lead over Michigan St. before losing 31-27. They can move the ball. Indiana’s offense is putting up 469 yards of total offense per game. They average 11.4 more points per game, 111 yards more in total offense and 105 yards more in passing. Indiana's 11 passing touchdowns in five games has surpassed last year's season total of 10 in 12 games. Not to shabby. Meyer’s Buckeyes destroyed the Cornhuskers 63-38 in Columbus last week, and now enter this game 6-0 and ranked eighth in the nation. Sophomore quarterback Braxton Miller is playing like an All-American and potential Big Ten Player of the Year candidate. Not calling for an outright win or anything since Indiana hasn't beat OSU since 1988 but I like the Hoosiers to keep this one respectable. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

SPORTS WAGERS

PURDUE -1 +100 over Wisconsin

The Boilermakers’ stock took a huge drop last week after that blowout loss to the Wolverines. They’ve now lost to both quality teams they’ve played this season and that raises questions as to their credibility.

The schedule has provided them with an opportunity to respond against another perceived decent team but we’re not buying into the Badgers even for a moment. This is the most offensively inept Wisconsin team in a decade with its four wins coming against weak opposition (UTEP, Northern Iowa, Utah State and Illinois). Despite the weak competition, the Badgers rank 95th passing and 88th rushing in the nation.

The Boilermakers have to respond this week. The Big-10 championship is up for grabs and this team is too talented to settle for a minor bowl bid. Expect Purdue to come out with an intense desire and focus. This week’s opponent is beatable. The Badgers are a power team that lacks a QB and that suits the Boilermakers much better than Michigan’s style. Nothing less than a redemptive performance will be acceptable and that’s precisely what we expect.


UAB +13 -105 over HOUSTON

In the season’s first two weeks we were able to fade an overpriced Cougar team that we insisted were a fraction of the team they were in their previous three years. As prohibitive favorites, they lost straight up to both Texas State and Louisiana Tech. They also lost to UCLA in week 3 but were expected to do so. Back-to-back winning weeks have followed, which provides us another fade opportunity against this imposter.

UAB has been perennial bottom feeders for years but Coach Garrick McGee has them on the right track. The Blazers haven’t beaten an FBS team yet but it has played well at Ohio State and South Carolina and is seeing the offense click nicely after a quarterback change. UAB is unlikely to stop the Cougars but this Houston team tends to stop itself at times and the Blazers can shoot it out with the best in C-USA. Seldom will we endorse a team that we don’t think can win outright. This one is no different with the double-digits offered being more than enough to tempt us in a road game where the underdog can pull off the upset.


South Carolina +3 -110 over LSU

Featured game has the 9th ranked team in the country hosting the 3rd ranked team but only one of those rankings is legit.

LSU is 5-1 and they have a nice win over Washington but last week’s loss to a quality Gators team that plays defense revealed some glaring issues with this year’s edition of the Tigers. LSU’s offense is predictable, it has significant QB issues and it lacks leadership. Contrary to popular belief, the 2012 Tigers are falling well short of the dominant teams that are associated with this program.

South Carolina is still the favorite in the SEC East and the biggest threat to Alabama. They’re a complete team with championship calibre talent, coaching, experience and leadership. Steve Spurrier's charges are in a class above LSU this year and have the maturity to handle a tough road game after a big 35-7 win over #5 Georgia in a contest they barely broke a sweat in.


Southern Miss +17 -105 over UCF

Southern Miss is a proud program riding a lightly publicized but very impressive streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons that is very likely to end this season with its current 0-5 record. That record has them grossly undervalued here. This week's contest with a familiar conference foe is a game Southern Miss can win straight up. The Eagles have played a very tough schedule and things begin to ease up here.

Central Florida is a solid, complete team but the Knights may not be giving this visitor much credit after waxing an East Carolina squad that humiliated the Eagles in their home opener. Southern Miss matches up physically with the Knights in a way that many C-USA teams do not and it's also 6-1 against UCF in a series that has been dominated by the underdog. The Eagles haven't quit on the season yet and this is a very large number for what could be a defensive game between two teams with comparable rosters and a competitive history. Eagles keep this one unexpectedly close.

Scott Delaney

Bad time for the Buffalo Bulls to roam into Dekalb, Illinois, as it's homecoming for the Northern Illinois Huskies, and you best believe it'll be lively at at Huskie Stadium. We have the top two rushing attacks in the Mid American Conference ready to do battle, and my money is on the Huskies running away with this one, literally.

Northern Illinois (5-1, 2-0 MAC) has won five in a row after dropping its first game, and leads the MAC with 245 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th best in the nation.

And while the Huskies know how to run the pill, keep an eye on quartback Jordan Lynch, who is having a remarkable campaign, ranking eighth in the nation in rushing average with 131.5 yards. The dual-threat beast has a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while his passing efficiency rating of 142.4 ranks 40th in the nation.

Buffalo, primarily a rushing team, has to rely on quarterback Alex Zordich, who hasn't been very effective for the Bulls. He's completed less than 50 percent of his passes and has thrown just 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. It's uncertain whether he'll have the balance he needs from running back Branden Oliver, the star of this offense.

Oliver missed the last two games because of a knee injury, and though he is expected to return against the Huskies, I don't know how healthy he'll be, which is why I said the Bulls will be relying on Zordich.

The Bulls come into this one mired in ATS slides of 5-12 ATS in conference play, 3-9 against winning teams and 1-5 after an ATS cover. On the other hand, Northern Illinois is on ATS win streaks of 5-0 at home, 9-2 in October, 14-6 in conference play and 6-1 overall.

This game marks Buffalo's third straight road game and again, this is the wrong week to be visiting the Huskies. The Bulls will keep it close for a bit, but the Huskies will have no trouble pulling away late for the win and cover.

4♦ NORTHERN ILLINOIS