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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 6

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 6

DUNKEL INDEX

Washington at Oregon
The Ducks look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games. Oregon is the pick (-24) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 30. Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-24)

Game 313-314: Navy at Air Force (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 75.100; Air Force 90.035
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 15; 51
Vegas Line: Air Force by 10; 55
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-10); Under

Game 315-316: Michigan State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 97.929; Indiana 78.809
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 19; 44
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 15 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-15 1/2); Under

Game 317-318: Northern Illinois at Ball State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 84.217; Ball State 83.172
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 1; 73
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Boston College at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 88.381; Army 68.877
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 19 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Boston College by 10; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-10); Under

Game 321-322: Bowling Green at Akron (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 71.589; Akron 69.567
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 69
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+4 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 73.232; Cincinnati 96.134
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 23; 54
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 20 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-20 1/2); Under

Game 325-326: Georgia Tech at Clemson (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 97.868; Clemson 99.269
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 76
Vegas Line: Clemson by 10; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+10); Over

Game 327-328: Virginia at Duke (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 82.591; Duke 82.379
Dunkel Line: Even; 60
Vegas Line: Duke by 2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2); Over

Game 329-330: South Florida at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 89.137; Temple 81.062
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 8; 44
Vegas Line: South Florida by 5; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-5); Under

Game 331-332: Northwestern at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 92.487; Penn State 91.225
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+3); Over

Game 333-334: Kent State at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 76.095; Eastern Michigan 70.548
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Kent State by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-3); Under

Game 335-336: Connecticut at Rutgers (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 86.711; Rutgers 85.461
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9 1/2); Over

Game 337-338: Florida State at NC State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 107.542; NC State 88.990
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 18 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Florida State by 14; 55
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14); Under

Game 339-340: Massachusetts at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 61.620; Western Michigan 76.448
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 15; 48
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 17; 53
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+17); Under

Game 341-342: Vanderbilt at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 90.670; Missouri 94.860
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Missouri by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+7); Over

Game 343-344: Texas A&M at Mississippi (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 100.243; Mississippi 90.786
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 9 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 11; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+11); Over

Game 345-346: Virginia Tech at North Carolina (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 88.576; North Carolina 90.110
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+4); Under

Game 347-348: Washington at Oregon (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 89.753; Oregon 119.988
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 30; 62
Vegas Line: Oregon by 24; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-24); Under

Game 349-350: Georgia at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 107.990; South Carolina 105.546
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 2 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 2 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+2 1/2); Over

Game 351-352: West Virginia at Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 105.255; Texas 103.182
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 2; 81
Vegas Line: Texas by 7; 75
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+7); Over

Game 353-354: Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 91.534; TCU 102.967
Dunkel Line: TCU by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: TCU by 11; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-11); Under

Game 355-356: Illinois at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 83.190; Wisconsin 95.714
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 12 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+14 1/2); Over

Game 357-358: Kansas at Kansas State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 79.809; Kansas State 102.108
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 22 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 24 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+24 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: UCLA at California (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 93.284; California 93.732
Dunkel Line: Even; 59
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: California (+3); Over

Game 361-362: Arkansas at Auburn (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 81.934; Auburn 96.192
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Auburn by 10; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-10); Under

Game 363-364: Michigan at Purdue (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 97.988; Purdue 97.059
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 61
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+3); Over

Game 365-366: Wyoming at Nevada (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 74.864; Nevada 97.803
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 23; 63
Vegas Line: Nevada by 16; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-16); Under

Game 367-368: New Mexico State at Idaho (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 53.864; Idaho 70.022
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 16; 52
Vegas Line: Idaho by 10 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-10 1/2); Under

Game 369-370: Arizona at Stanford (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 103.269; Stanford 107.163
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 4; 59
Vegas Line: Stanford by 9 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+9 1/2); Over

Game 371-372: Oklahoma at Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 104.611; Texas Tech 102.060
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 2 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 5; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+5); Over

Game 373-374: Central Michigan at Toledo (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 75.671; Toledo 83.704
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 8; 62
Vegas Line: Toledo by 10 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+10 1/2); Under

Game 375-376: Boise State at Southern Mississippi (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 94.641; Southern Mississippi 85.359
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Boise State by 11; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+11); Under

Game 377-378: Rice at Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 69.573; Memphis 65.418
Dunkel Line: Rice by 4; 69
Vegas Line: Rice by 7 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+7 1/2); Over

Game 379-380: Wake Forest at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 81.033; Maryland 84.328
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Maryland by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+5 1/2); Over

Game 381-382: Mississippi State at Kentucky (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 98.381; Kentucky 80.727
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 17 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-10); Under

Game 383-384: Washington State at Oregon State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 79.767; Oregon State 93.107
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 13 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 15 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+15 1/2); Over

Game 385-386: UNLV at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 64.525; Louisiana Tech 94.508
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 30; 63
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 24 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-24 1/2); Under

Game 387-388: Tulsa at Marshall (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 86.727; Marshall 85.395
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 3; 68
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3); Over

Game 389-390: Miami (FL) at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 94.164; Notre Dame 103.591
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 13; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+13); Under

Game 391-392: Buffalo at Ohio (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 70.207; Ohio 82.887
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Ohio by 14; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+14); Under

Game 393-394: Nebraska at Ohio State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 102.461; Ohio State 99.194
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+3 1/2); Over

Game 395-396: Hawaii at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 68.495; San Diego State 87.734
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 19 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 22 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+22 1/2); Under

Game 397-398: Fresno State at Colorado State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 91.189; Colorado State 75.954
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 15; 64
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 16; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+16); Over

Game 399-400: LSU at Florida (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 106.149; Florida 106.452
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: LSU by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+2 1/2); Over

Game 401-402: Texas State at New Mexico (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 69.392; New Mexico 76.635
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 7; 48
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-3 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: SMU at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 88.336; UTEP 82.091
Dunkel Line: SMU by 6; 54
Vegas Line: UTEP by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+2 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Tulane at UL-Lafayette (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 54.102; UL-Lafayette 82.954
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 29; 52
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 23 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-23 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: UL-Monroe at Middle Tennessee State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 90.678; Middle Tennessee State 64.988
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 25 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 3; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-3); Under

Game 409-410: North Texas at Houston (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 74.525; Houston 82.221
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Houston by 12; 58
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+12); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 441-442: SE Louisiana at UAB (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Louisiana 53.726; UAB 74.618
Dunkel Line: UAB by 21
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 6

DUNKEL INDEX

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Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Huskies at OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington (3-1) looks due for a letdown after their 17-13 upset win versus Stanford on the last Thursday in September despite being a 7-point underdog. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. Now Washington must go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. That win over the Cardinal was also the Huskies just first point spread cover in their last six encounters against a team with a winning record. Washington has not had much luck against the Ducks as they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Oregon that includes a 0-4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 trips to Autzen Stadium. Oregon (5-0) failed to cover their big 30.5-point spread last week at Washington State -- but the Ducks have then rebounded to be 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a point spread loss. Oregon is also a stout 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October. Look for the Ducks to put up a big number against a still-suspect Washington defense. Lay the points with Oregon.

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MLB Predictions

New York Yankees - 1.5

With the Yankees 10-2 win over Boston lsat night and Baltimore loss they can clinch the AL East by winning out their final two games against the Red Sox. Boston has lost 6 straight games and 10 of their last 11 games. Over there 6 game losing skid they have scored just 13 runs (2.17 runs per game). The Yankees have scored 19 runs over their last 2 games alone, and 8+ runs in 4 of their last 6 (which they are 4-2 in). On the mound for Boston tonight is Jon Lester who is 9-14 on the season with a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .270 opponents batting average. He is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA vs New York this year. Take note that the Red Sox are just 13-19 in games he has started this sesason. New York will turn to David Phelps to make a start tonight. He is 4-4 on the season with 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .226 opponents batting average split between time as a starter and a reliever. As a starter he is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA, which included a September 12th start in Boston where he went 5.2 innings giving up just 1 earned run. Note that the Red Sox are an awful 16-40 in their last 56 overall, 7-19 in their last 26 road games, and 7-21 in their last 28 games following a loss. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games, 12-4 in their last 16 overall, and 8-2 in their last 10 divisional games. This Boston team has scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 9 games, and that won't be enough against this Yankees team that has hot bats lately. Take New York by 2+.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Houston -101 over CHICAGO

The Cubs lost their 100th last night to these Astros. They couldn’t avoid the embarrassing triple digit loss number and now they have nothing to play for tonight. Playing behind Chris Volstad isn’t going to motivate them much either.

Volstad’s numbers, both surface and beneath, are about as ugly as it gets. He has 43 walks and 55 K’s in 109 innings. He has a 6.64 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP and three wins in 20 starts. His xERA is 6.76, his ERA at home is 6.27 and his ERA over his past four starts is 11.22. He only has a job because the Cubbies are obligated to pay him 2.6M a year and for that money, they may as well ship him out there for one last start.

The Astros are on their NL farewell tour. They will begin next season as an AL club and they’re still giving it their all with three wins in their last four games. With all the upheaval in Houston, it's easy to forget there are a few major-league level players already on the team. Bud Norris is one of them. Norris has 161 K’s in 162 frames. His xERA is a full run lower than his actual ERA and he’s coming off a very good September. He also threw a gem his last start out against the Cardinals. Norris is a pitcher to watch in 2013 and certainly offers up more value as a pooch than Volstad does as the favorite.


Philadelphia +114 over WASHINGTON

It’s been a long road for the Washington Nationals since moving from Montreal seven years ago. The Nats had consecutive 100-loss seasons and many last place finishes so last night’s clinching of the NL East was worthy of a big celebration. After a night in which the players post game T-shirts were soaked with champagne and the victory celebration lasted well into the night, it now becomes a great situational fade.

The Nats are setting their rotation for the playoffs so Tom Gorzelanny will get this meaningless start. Had they not clinched last night, Gio Gonzalez would have started. Gorzelanny has been in the pen all season. Three innings was his longest outing this season. He’s put up decent numbers as a reliever but a starting job is one he’s never been able to keep.

B.J. Rosenberg has 21 K’s in 21 innings since his call-up. He’s made 21 relief appearances and now gets a chance to start. His fastball tops off at 96 MPH. He isn’t afraid to work inside and he has shown the ability to spot it with precision. Rosenberg’s slider is nasty and he uses it as his strikeout pitch. He’ll now face a Washington team that really has no interest in this game and is likely to rest many of its starters.


Minnesota +144 over TORONTO

The Twins offer up too much value against such a raw rookie here to pass up on.

Chad Jenkins has made two starts lasting just 8.2 innings to go along with some relief appearances totalling 18.1 innings for a combined 27 innings over 10 games. The Blue Jays have lost all 10 games he’s appeared in. He’s also allowed 14 runs and walked 10 batters over his brief stay. The strikeout rate is surely a disappointment, as it has been on a downward trend since signing as a first round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s a fastball pitcher with weak secondary stuff and major league hitters feast off guys like him.

Anthony Swarzak is a little more seasoned with 252 career innings. He’s certainly not going to dazzle many and he’s had trouble keeping his starting job at this level but what he brings is great control, a groundball bias profile and a more experience than his counterpart. This one is all about taking back a hefty tag against a minor league pitcher.


MIAMI +149 over N.Y. Mets

R.A. Dickey is coming off his 20th win and the celebration that comes with that achievement. There are endless interviews, emails, telephone calls and congratulatory texts that he’s had to field. The result is a huge letdown spot here. It’s equivalent to a pitcher’s first game out after a no-hitter. It becomes anti-climactic.

Expect the Marlins to be a little extra motivated here, as the Mets have announced that Dickey will go for his 21st win on four days rest. If New York was involved in a pennant race and this was a crucial game, the Marlins could understand and accept that decision. Being 23 games out with two left and going with a guy on short rest is an insult to the Fish. They’ll do their best to respond appropriately.

Jacob Turner remains a work-in-progress but has pitched well since his trade here from Detroit. He had a 14/1 K/BB in his first 17 IP with Miami and he’s posted a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts covering 18 innings. When all is equal, Dickey has an edge on the hill over Turner. However, the Mets’ choice to start Dickey makes this is a strong situational play against a team that has dropped three in a row and one that can’t wait for this season to conclude.

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Hollywood SportsTHE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Huskies at OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington (3-1) looks due for a letdown after their 17-13 upset win versus Stanford on the last Thursday in September despite being a 7-point underdog. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. Now Washington must go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. That win over the Cardinal was also the Huskies just first point spread cover in their last six encounters against a team with a winning record. Washington has not had much luck against the Ducks as they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Oregon that includes a 0-4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 trips to Autzen Stadium. Oregon (5-0) failed to cover their big 30.5-point spread last week at Washington State -- but the Ducks have then rebounded to be 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a point spread loss. Oregon is also a stout 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October. Look for the Ducks to put up a big number against a still-suspect Washington defense. Lay the points with Oregon.

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Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois at WisconsinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Badgers scored 27 points in a 3-point loss to Nebraska last Saturday. Wiscy jumped out to a 27-10 lead and on paper, it looked like the offense finally got it together. But Nebraska actually gifted 17 points to the Badgers. Nebraska turned the ball over twice inside their own 25-yard line, leading to Wisconsin TD drives of 23 yards and 13 yards. The Badgers also kicked a FG after a roughing the punter penalty at midfield marked the ball inside Husker territory. Wisconsin gained a total of just 295 yards, including 90 yards in the second half. Wisconsin's offense is struggling badly up front, which has affected their bread-and-butter ground game. Meanwhile, the Illini offense has scored a grand total of 45 combined points against Penn State, Louisiana Tech, and Arizona State. There top two QBs have produced just 8 TD passes with 6 INTs on the season and have been sacked 13 times! Look for the Badgers' defense to continue Illinois' offensive struggles. At the same time, I expect Wiscy to work on that sluggish ground game, moving the clock while controlling the line of scrimmage. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Illini & Badgers on Saturday. T

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John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami FL at Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami FLFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It has been decades since this rivalry had an intense meaning, but both programs are moving back to their elite status they both enjoyed. This will mark the first time since 1980 that Notre Dame will be favored over the Hurricanes, but note that this is the first regular season game they have played since 1990.
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Notre Dame fans still remembers with passion the the beatdown the Hurricanes put on the Irish winning 58-7. At one point, it was one of the premier and much anticipated games with a nickname attached of ?Catholics versus the Convicts? and fortunately Miami has cleaned up their program and have rid themselves of that character flaw. However, they have not rid themselves of the swagger that was made the Hurricanes National Champions under head coach Jimmy Johnson.
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The biggest disparity between these two teams are their defensive units. Miami ranks 100th in scoring defense allowing 33.4 points per game. On offense, Miami is quite strong ranking 15th averaging 328.4 passing yards per game, 84th averaging 144.2 rushing yards per game, and 38th scoring 35.6 points per game.
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Notre Dame ranks third best nationally allowing just 9.0 points per game. Offensively, they have sputtered and have lacked consistent execution. The Golden Domers rank 86th averaging 211.0 passing yards per game, 86th averaging 140.3 rushing yards per game, and 77th scoring 25.8 yards per game.
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Based on my favorite statistical reading, yards-per-point, Notre Dame ranks 44th nationally posting a 13.6 offensive yards-per-point ratio. Miami ranks 47th posting a 13.8 yards-per-point offensive ratio. On defense, Notre Dame has posted a remarkable 32.4 opponent yards-per-point reading ranking third best nationally showing how stingy they have been allowing points. Last season they posted a mediocre 16.6 opponent yards per point reading.
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This level of defensive excellence is not sustainable by Notre Dame. Last season, Alabama led the nation in this category with a 24.1 opponent yards-per-point reading. LSU was second best posting a 23.0 ratio reading. In 2010, Missouri?s defensive unit led the nation with a 21.7 YPP reading. So, now team has maintained this level of excellence for the entire season and I believe the Miami offense is going to create huge matchup problems for the Irish.
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There are numerous high-performance game situations that support Miami in this game. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS when facing good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game on the season in game splayed over the last two seasons; 6-0 ATS versus strong rushing defenses allowing 120 or fewer rushing yards per game in games played spanning the last two seasons. Hurricane head coach Golden is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points in all games he has coached since 1992. This includes his successful rebuilding of the Temple University football program.
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The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will score between 22 and 28 points. This has not been good news for the Irish as they are just 15-34 ATS since 1992 and on a 0-4 ATS skid spanning the past three seasons. The sim also shows a detailed projection that Miami will pass for 200 to 250 net passing yards. In past games, the Irish are just 2-5 ATS the past three seasons and 19-28 ATS since 1992.
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Take the Miami Hurricanes as a 10* graded Titan Play.

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Illinois vs. WisconsinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin is coming off a brutal loss against Nebraska last week as it blew a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter. It has been that type of season for the Badgers as they opened with a poor performance against Northern Iowa and instead of bouncing back strong, they were defeated at Oregon St. and have not been able to recover. The loss last Saturday showed that this is a team in a transitional period and they cannot be trusted to win big, especially when being asked to lay a lot of points. "This is the worst feeling ever. We had it. We clearly had it," Wisconsin running back Montee Ball said after the Nebraska game. "We were dominating the entire game until, well, the entire first half. We just have to play a four-quarter game. We have to keep our foot on the gas." That has been a problem all season as the Badgers have gotten horrible quarterback play and the offensive line has been one of the worst in recent years for Wisconsin. Until they can figure it out, they are a clear fade. Illinois has dropped two straight games by 28 points each and that is certainly being taken into consideration with this line. The thing is though is that the Illini actually played decent in those games as they were outgained by only 79 and 18 yards but turnovers killed them both games. The gave it up six times against Louisiana Tech and three times against Penn St. and those turnovers led directly to 45 points so there is no way a team can overcome that no matter how good it moves the ball. Illinois has given up some big point totals along the way but the defense isn't that bad as it ranked 31st in the country in total defense. Also, the Illini have allowed opponents to convert on only 29.7 percent of third down attempts which is 19th best in the country. Offensively, things have been tough with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase being slowed by a sore ankle but he has improved and said he is much better. His mobility is a big priority for the Illini to sustain drives on offense. Wisconsin has not covered in four straight home games while Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss against the number and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Also, we play against teams in a conference matchup that are averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc on the ground going up against teams allowing between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc on the ground. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 6

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Penn StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For starters, I always like when I see a ranked team getting points from an unranked team. You know from jump-street that every square will be going the other way when they see this (22) and be shocked, shocked when the team losing. Well Penn State is 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs Northwestern and 4-0 ATS last 4 overall in the series. The calender gets ugly for Northwestern in October as they are on a 2-9 ATS run their last 11. A true Halloween nightmare in the making for the Wildcats as their undefeated season, and their Top 25 ranking go to what will be an Un-Happy Valley at high-noon.

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Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland is the hottest team coming into the playoffs winning each of their last six games including sweeping Texas to overtake them for the AL West division. Detroit went 8-2 in their last 10 to walk away from Chicago White Sox to win the division. Detroit has a powerful lineup which includes triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera and possible AL MVP winner of this year. Justin Verlander is 2-0 in two starts this year against Oakland allowing just a single run in those two games combined. Jarrod Parker is on the hill for Oakland and this year he went 13-8 with an era under 3.50. Against Detroit this year though he was 0-1 in a single start with a 3.18 era. Look for a decent pitchers duel for the first half of the game, but the second and third time through the order will spell doom for Parker and the A's as that is went the Tigers will strike and that is when Verlander just gets tougher. Play Detroit

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Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas vs. AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArkansasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think it's safe to say that Arkansas hit rock-bottom in last week's 58-10 drubbing at the hands of Texas A&M. There really is nowhere for the Hogs to go but up this week, and I think a matchup with another struggling team, the Auburn Tigers, will suit them well.
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Arkansas is a proud football program, and one that boasts plenty of talent. They've strayed way off course over the last few weeks, but the fact remains, this is a quality football team that can still make some noise this season. If they're able to pull out a victory this week, they have a pair of winnable home games on deck, and could very well be 3-2 in SEC play heading into November.
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It's not as if Auburn has been setting the world on fire. The Tigers are just 1-3 SU and ATS on the season, and have been held under 20 points in three of their four games to date. Yes, they put forth a strong showing against LSU two weeks ago, but I think that narrow loss had more to do with a complacent Bayou Bengals squad than anything else. Note that Auburn was still outgained by 168 total yards in the 12-10 setback.
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If you look at the numbers, Arkansas actually holds a decided edge on both sides of the football in this matchup. The Tigers have become a rather one-dimensional team due to their lack of experience at the quarterback position, while the Razorbacks remain loaded with experience and talent across the board on offense. Defensively, the Hogs have a lot of work to do, but they've been stronger than Auburn in the trenches, holding the opposition to 4.1 yards per rush, and that could turn out to be the difference in this game.
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Auburn crushed Arkansas by 22 points two years ago, but that was a much different team, one that was led by Cam Newton, who ran for 188 yards and three scores in the victory. The last time the Tigers beat the Hogs by double-digits prior to that was way back in 2005. Since then, Arkansas has taken three of the last six meetings by at least 17 points, including a 38-14 beatdown last year.
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Everyone is down on the Razorbacks right now. While I agree that Arkansas has turned into a bit of a circus act with head coach John L. Smith at the helm, I still believe that his players have a lot left in the tank, and more than just pride to play for at this early stage of the season. Last week's loss was downright embarrassing, and I look for the Hogs to make amends with a competitive effort this Saturday.

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Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise St vs. Southern Mississippi
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Take a look at Boise State coach Chris Petersen’s rise over the last four years: 50-3 SU combined, pushing Petersen’s career record at BSU to 73-6 (that’s right, he started 23-3 – and got a lot better!). But we all know about the rise and fall of empires, and we’re seeing just how big a role was played in the Broncos’ rule by departed QB Kellen Moore and former offensive coordinator Brent Pease. Without them, the bluebloods own the nation’s No. 64 passing offense and No. 65 rush offense, not the sort of attack that fuels one-loss seasons – something Boise fans have become accustomed to. Still, with Petersen calling the shots, we won’t dismiss the Broncos’ outstanding 12-2 SU and 11-2-1 ATS effort on the road off another away game… but we’d rather not back them in this dangerous situation. Following USM’s mortifying 42-17 loss to Western Kentucky, the whole world turned on the Golden Eagles. Except us. We gave ‘em the call to play a tight one with a superior Louisville team last week and they went wing-to-wing with the Cards before falling just short, 21-17. With new head coach Ellis Johnson off to an 0-4 SU start and a visit to UCF on deck, this is must-win territory for the wounded Eagles. Fortunately, they get some unexpected help from the ATS archives. Smissy is 14-6 SU and 15-5 ATS at Hattiesburg versus a foe off back-to-back wins, and a bankable 15-4 SU in the last 19 home games – with NO loss coming by more than 10 points. Expect another ferocious effort from the backed-into-a-corner hosts today.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Southern Miss.

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Greg ShakerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn St. -2.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Everything put together here tell me and My Model that a Fair line should be Penn State -7.1. That makes this 2% for me and the fact is, Northwestern might be 5-0 straightup, but they are not the better team and have just 1 game under their belt on the road. That was a 1 point winner verses sub-par Syracuse. Penn State is playing very strong D and that IS what wins games most of the time. 2% for me

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Johnny DetroitFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami +14FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am not buying into the Notre Dame hype. They were out-gained by Michigan 299-239 and held onto a 13-6 win at home despite forcing six turnovers, including four INTs off Denard Robinson. Notre Dame has a great defense but a poor offense and will not be able to keep up with Miami. The Hurricanes took out NC State 44-37, but missed three FGs that kept the Wolf Pack in the game. This line should be no higher than 10, so the 14 gives us a great play in this spot.

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Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking my beloved Huskers here.  Since the UCLA debacle, the Huskers defense has came together.  The Husker offense is the story here.  OSU one demsional with a running QB in Miller and running QBs do give NU trouble, but Huskers can trade points with QB Martinez throwing to WR Stills and RB's Burkhead and Abdullaha are one of the best 1-2 punches at RB in the nation, as well as a dual threat QB of their own!  Huskers average 7+ yards per play and eat clock doing it.  Off a comeback win against Wisconsin NU is full of confidence and battle tested, and OSU coming off a hard fought and brutal win at Miich State, I like Nebraska's expereinced and veteran offense that is clicking here.  Bo Pellini an OSU grad and will have the Huskers fired up here

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Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas +8.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Okay let's not sugar coat anything here both Arkansas and Auburn have been a major disappointment so far and Auburn comes off a bye, but there is no way they should be favored by more than a TD as they haven't been able to do anything on offense ranked 117th in total offense. Even if they are facing the Razorbacks who are 120th in total defense. Their QB Kiehl Frazier is completing just 52% of his passes with 2 TD and 7 interceptions. Arkansas has actually been decent stopping the run so how is Auburn going to be able to move the ball? Most of Arkansas troubles have been related to turnovers.
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Speaking of which Auburn is -2/game in turnover margin so they are right there with Arkansas. Despite losing big to Texas A&M, Arkansas had a lot of positives to take away. Like they did not allow a sack to a team that was one of the best in the game with 5 sacks per game. Arkansas passing game continues to be really good as they are ranked 20th in yardage while RB Knile Davis showed a little life last game. I think this will be the first game they can have a little balance with Auburns run defense being just awful ranked 104th in yards allowed and 92nd in yards per carry allowed.
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For the first time all season Arkansas defense should be able to help them win. This unit was supposed to be the strength this year, but they have been disappointing, but a bright note is that they are limiting opponents to 37.7% conversions on third downs and Auburn has been awful converting on third down with no sort of threat. Look for Arkansas to win that battle in a close game. Auburn is dead last in the SEC in run defense and points scored and those two are very bad combinations that will hurt them Saturday.

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Bobby ConnFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Penn StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NorthwesternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern has played well early in the year and I like that to continue this weekend. You always have to be careful with a Pat Fitzgerald coached team as they are more than capable of pulling off the upset. With Penn State struggling they are primed to be taken down at home on Saturday.

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Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska +3½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First-year Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is 5-0 this season with a Buckeye squad that was just 6-7 last year. One of last year's losses was a 34-27 let-down at Nebraska, as the Cornhuskers dominated the line of scrimmage and rushed for 234 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Nebraska is 4-1 behind their powerful running game, that's gained 259 rushing yards or more in each of their first 5 games. Both teams won their Big 10 openers last Saturday, with OSU winning at Michigan State by a point, 17-16. Ohio State may be undefeated, but they've played a terrible schedule, beating teams like Miami-OH, UCF, and UAB and this will be their toughest opponent by far this season- and their first loss!

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Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. San Diego State
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Hawaii has been crushed in it's games so far this season - however I have to say here that they have played some great defenses against USC and BYU. And against Nevada the weakest defense they have faced this season that did manage to score 24 points. For today they will be facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 86th in the nation in total yards allowed, 112th in passing yards allowed, and 93rd in points allowed. So I can see the Warriors putting up a good number on the scoreboard here. So with the odds makers being forced to post this ridiculous high number here to try and get some Hawaii money - makes for a highly recommended play on Hawaii here today. Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

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