Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

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Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England vs. Buffalo
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Pats are becoming the king of close-call losses, entering today’s fray off a pair of defeats by 1 and 2 points apiece. That’s not good news if you’re a New Englander: consider the fact that NFL teams off a pair of losses by a combined total of 3 points are 0-6 SU and ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off a SU and ATS win. That goes heads up against the Patriots’ 10-1 ATS record on this field when the Bills enter off a SU and ATS win.  On the flip side, Buffalo brings powerful numbers of its own, including a mind-boggling 19-1 SU and 16-2-1 ATS log in games off a win during the first four games of the season against a sub .500 opponent off a loss. Toss in Buffalo's 7-0 ATS record as a dog of 3 or more points against opponents off back-to-back losses – and Chan Gailey’s 7-1 SU and 6-0-2 ATS career mark in the NFL at home in games against foes off a air of losses – and we have the makings of a 12-round championship fight. With home dogs in this league standing 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS this season, advantage goes to the hometown challenger.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
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We played against Washington last week and the main reason paid off for a win. It was the defense we were going against an sure enough, the Redskins allowed 478 total yards and 38 points to the Bengals. The offense nearly made up for it but instead Washington dropped to 1-2 with the lone win coming opening week against New Orleans which is no longer looking very impressive. Even though the schedule hasn't been loaded with heavyweights, playing three of the first four games on the road is tough.
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Tampa Bay opened the season with a quality win over Carolina which stopped the bleeding from last year when it lost its last 10 games. The Buccaneers had a shot at taking out the Giants but blew a late lead and they played another very good game at Dallas last week despite coming up short. While many will see that roadtrip as discouraging, Tampa Bay is coming away with a lot confidence as it was able to hang around with two of the best teams in the NFC East.
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As mentioned, the Redskins defense was the issue against the Bengals just as it was against the Rams the previous week. They are ranked 29th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense and just when things could not have gone worse, they did. They lost two huge defenders two weeks ago against the Rams as Brian Orakpo tore the pectoral muscle near his left shoulder, while Adam Carriker tore the quad tendon in his right knee. Both were put on injured reserve.
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This is great news for a Tampa Bay offense that has yet to find its groove on offense. The Buccaneers are averaging just 243.7 ypg and 4.3 yppl both of which are dead last in the league. They need to open things up and that means quit running between the tackles on too many first down plays. Quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a dreadful game against the Cowboys but he has come back before. In the previous eight times he has had a passer rating below 60, he has bounced back with a great game in seven of those.
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The Buccaneers have bounced back as a team as well as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. On the other side, Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III has lived up to expectations as he has gotten off to a solid start. He will be facing a tough defense here though. The Buccaneers were roughed up against the Giants as they allowed 604 total yards but in the other two games, they allowed just 301 and 297 yards so the ability is definitely there.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
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Maurice Jones-Drew tried to renegotiate his contract after leading the NFL with 1,606 rushing yards in 2011. He missed 38 days, including all of training camp, but returned without a new deal. Jacksonville fans could hardly be blamed if they were concerned that Drew would mirror the situation in Tennessee, in which Chris Johnson held out and since his return, has been a shell of his former shelf. Drew gained 137 yards (4.4 YPC) in his first two games of 2012 and then last Sunday, ‘EXPLODED’ for 177 yards, including a 59-yard TD, in last Sunday's 22-17 win over Indianapolis (team’s first win). QB Blaine Gabbert still has a long way to go (he continues to experience growing pains in his second NFL season) but the fact that he has yet to throw an INT in 79 attempts (through three games), is a HUGE step in the right direction. The Bengals earned a wild card berth last year but opened this season by getting beat fairly handily in Week 1 at Baltimore, 44-13. That game followed last year’s pattern, as during the regular season the 9-7 Bengals were 1-6 against opponents that finished .500 or better last year and then fell to 1-7 with a 31-10 loss to Houston in the wild card round. However, the Bengals have won two straight since their Week 1 loss, beating Cleveland 34-27 and Washington 38-31. QB Andy Dalton has been terrific the last two weeks, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 128.2 vs Cleveland plus throwing for 328 yards with another three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 132.9 vs the Redskins. Dalton's 105.0 passer rating ranks second in the AFC after three games and his 158.3 rating in the fourth quarter is the best in the NFL! The Jags will have trouble keeping the Bengals out of the end zone, considering that they’ve faced 108 pass attempts through three games with just one INT and are allowing 154.3 YPG on the ground (4.4 YPC). This year’s Jacksonville offense seems in much better shape but these Jags still have a long way come. After all, they averaged an NFL-low 259.3 YPG in 2011 and at 15.2 PPG, only the Browns (13.6), Chiefs (13.3) and Rams (12.1) scored fewer points. Look for the Bengals to move to 3-1 here and considering the pointspread, a win almost INSURES a cover.

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Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
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The Bengals defense was a unit of strength last year and looked pretty decent in August.  But here in September, Cinci has been torched all three of their games.  The Ravens moved through this D like a hot knife through butter, hanging 44 on the Bengals on opening night.
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Cinci’s performance against the Browns the following week was even worse.  Cleveland rookie QB Brandon Weeden had a QB rating of 5.1 in his debut at home against Philly.  On the road at Cinci, Weeden had a QB rating of 114.9, throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt.  Trent Richardson was held to 19 yards on 39 carries in the Browns opener.  Against Cinci, he carried 19 times again, but against the Bengals D, he gained 109 yards.  The Browns had only one ‘three and out’ all afternoon.   And last week, Washington hung 31 on the Bengals defense; again facing little resistance.
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The Bengals secondary is a complete disaster area right now.  They could be without their top four cornerbacks this week, with Nate Clements, Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen all banged up, leaving the secondary very shorthanded here.   Even Blaine Gabbert should be able to find open receivers this week!
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But for all of Cinci’s defensive question marks, this offense has five big play TD’s of 40+ yards in the last two weeks alone.  Andy Dalton is a bet-on QB all the way, and Jay Gruden’s offense is littered with downfield playmakers – AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Andrew Hawkins and Brandon Tate, just to name a few.  The Bengals have cashed three consecutive Overs to open the season, all by two touchdowns or more.  That’s a streak worth riding again here. Take the Over

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Carolina vs. Atlanta
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The Falcons have looked dominating this season with a home win vs. Denver 27-21 and two road wins at KC 40-24 and at SD 27-3. They are at home Sunday where they have been tough, winning 15-5 SU and 12-6-2 ATS.
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QB Matt Ryan has led the way with 9 TDs (1 rush) and a 114 passer rating. The offense is stacked with weapons which has contributed to Ryan's success, WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White are arguably the best 1-2 combo in the NFL (2,255 receiving yards and 16 TDs combined in 2011).
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RB Michael Turner (2,711 rushing yards last 2 seasons) is the power and change of pace back Jacquizz Rodgers (105 combined yards and TD this season) is the speed resulting in solid depth at the position. TE Tony Gonzalez (13,552 career receiving yards) will go into the hall of fame as the best ever at the position. He continues to stand the test of time with 214 yards and 3 TDs so far this season.
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The defense is dynamic and hard hitting and they proved that impressively last week holding the Chargers offense to a mere 3 points. The week prior the defense had Peyton Manning in fits with a chess matchup of schemes that resulted in 4 INTs and 5 turnovers in the first quarter of the game. OLB Stephen Nicholas is probable after being limited in practice with a thigh injury.
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The Falcons offense is ranked 3rd in the NFL scoring 31.3 ppg and the defense is ranked 4th in the NFL giving up 16.0 ppg resulting in a net point differential of +15.3 ppg.
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Carolina opened the regular season with a tough road loss 16-10 to the Buccaneers. In game two they pulled out a 35-27 victory over the winless Saints while last week they look terrible in a 36-7 loss at home to the NYG.
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The Panthers are led by 2011 offensive rookie of the year Cam Newton who grew up just south of downtown Atlanta. Newton was awesome as a rookie moving the ball effictively with his arm and his feet with a combined 4,757 yards and 35 TDs. In 3 starts this season, he has a mere 2 passing TDs against 5 INTs with a QB rating of 78.3.
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RB Jonathan Stewart is expected to play in this game after dealing with a toe injury for most of the season. RB DeAngelo Williams (146 combined yards) has led the charge in Stewart's absence and could put up some yards against a weak Falcons run defense.
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WR Steve Smith has flourished with Newton under center putting up career numbers in 2011 with 1,394 receiving yards. As Newton goes, so does Smith.
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The Carolina defense is ranked 18th against the pass and 24th against the rush for ypg. LBs Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and DE Greg Hardy are all questionable for Sunday.
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The offense is 30th in the league scoring 17.3 ppg while the defense is 24th in the league giving up 26.3 ppg resulting in a net point differential of -9 ppg.
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Newton was benched in the 4th quarter last Sunday and was called out for "sulking" on the bench. He will be in tough to improve his performance against the Falcons. The Falcons won both contests last season 31-17 and 31-23 with Newton posting 2 of his 4 worst passer ratings of the season.

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Vikings at Lions
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The Lions are 14-0 OU after a road loss. Note that the Lions have gone over the total by an average of 18.5 ppg in this situation and this includes last week?s 44-41 loss in Tennessee. Every single one of the 14 games has gone over by at least a TD. Consider the Lions and Vikings OVER.

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Oakland Raiders +7
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The Raiders enter this division showdown with some momentum after a big upset win over the Steelers. The key to the victory was getting the ground game going. Darren McFadden finished with 113 rushing yards after totaling just 54 in his first two games.
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I like Oakland's chances of running the football on Denver, who was gashed for 152 yards on the ground by Houston. McFadden is averaging 144.7 yards in his last three contests against the Broncos, who will have an even tougher time slowing him down without middle linebacker Joe Mays, who was suspended one game and fined $50,000 fine for a hit on Matt Schaub.
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The team with the most rushing yards has won each of the past seven meetings in this series. The Raiders have come out on top in five of those seven while averaging 196.6 rushing yards per game.
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The Raiders are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings overall and 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 in Denver. They have won the last 4 in the Mile High City straight up by an average of 17.5 points.
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The Broncos are on an 11-23-2 against the spread slide versus division foes and are only 15-35-2 against the spread in their last 52 home games. Take the points.

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Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks vs. St Louis Rams    
Play: St Louis Rams
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Ironically the Seahawks leave their hostile environment in Seattle and fly east for a hostile environment in St. Louis. Public is loving the Seahawks after Monday’s defensive performance and I think it’s going to be a little different on the road where they are unable to get the same advantages against opposing offensive lines. St. Louis also likes to run a no huddle scheme on offense that will give Seattle fits. The Seahawks do not travel well and are 17-36 -2 ATS int heir last 55 road games.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams defense either as they have one of the best pass rushes led by Chris Long. This leads to turnovers and good pass defense. I think it will lead to the being aggressive to sell out and stop the rushing game from Seattle because Russell Wilson has been kept under wraps thus far. They are not letting him throw and I do not anticipate them doing that here today. It’s not like the Seahawks are dominating on the ground either they averaged just 3.9 ypc on the road to the Rams 4.4 at home last year and this year the two teams are tied at 4.1 ypc. The Rams ran all over the Redskins in a similar home game where they were 3 poitn under dogs.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams, Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach and he’ll have his team ready in this game. Seattle is ranked 22nd allowing 44.7% conversions on third down and St. Louis should be able to stay on the field all day by converting these third downs now that they are home where they converted 58% against a good Redskins defense. While Seattle is 30th in converting third downs and struggle in the red zone ranked 31 with a meager 25% RZ TD%. I expect this game to be either tight throughout or for the Rams to win by multiple touchdowns. Either way unless the Seahawks suddenly let Russell Wilson loose the game plan is pretty easy for the Rams and the Seahawks are in a major let down spot on short rest after they got lucky against the Packers.

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Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans    
Play: Tennessee Titans
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The Titans fit 2 solid system here today. First we want to play on teams off a win that have a 1-2 record in week 4 if they are getting 1.5 or more points. These teams are 44-15 ats. Another system that plays against Houston is to play against week 4 teams that scored 24 or more points in each of their first 3 games if they are off a win are are favored by 7 or more. Had you played against these teams since 1973 you would have cashed 24 of 32 times. The Titans have covered 8 of 10 as a dog of 4 or more vs an opponent that has revenge. Remember the Titans here today. Take the points as the Titans hang in with Houston.

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Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 44.5
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Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this AFC West rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. I fully expect a defensive battle, which is something that has been a common theme between these teams when they get together.
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Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 43 or less combined points. In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have seen 44 or less combined points. These teams know each other inside and out, which makes points harder to come by.
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San Diego is one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league. It ranks 9th in NFL in total defense (305.7 yards/game) and 6th in scoring defense (17.0 points/game). The Chargers' offense gets too much credit because of Philip Rivers. They rank just 23rd in the league in total offense (318.0 yards/game).
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Kansas City did not play well defensively in its first two games, but a lot of that was due to injuries and suspensions. Now healthy, the Chiefs held the Saints to just 24 points and 288 total yards in a 27-24 overtime victory last week. Like San Diego, they also have one of the most underrated defenses in the league.
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The UNDER is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 9-0 in Chiefs last 9 vs. AFC West opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 home games. Kansas City is 9-1 to the UNDER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Jets +4.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We find a ton of value on the Jets even with the 49ers surprising loss last week at Minnesota. I don't disagree that San Francisco should be valued in this matchup, but not by more than a field goal. You have to remember that the 49ers will be traveling across the country for this game and that it's an early game.
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In the Jets only home game so far this season, they put on an impressive performance in a 48-28 win over the Bills in week 1. I still think the jury is out on New York after their poor showing in the pre-season, but this is a very good football team and one in my opinion shouldn't be getting 4.5 points at home. San Francisco is just 4-9 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
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This play falls into a profitable situation that has proven it's reliability over the years. Anytime you have a team that is coming off a loss of 10-points or more as a 3.5-10 point favorite, going up against a team that managed to score just 3-points in the first half of their last game, the smart play is on the underdog. It's 117-68 (63%) since 1983!

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Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Redskins vs.Buccaneers
Play: Over 47½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The worst two pass defenses in the NFL meet here. Washington has plenty of offensive punch with rookie QB Robert Griffin running Mike Shanahan's roll out attack, but the defense has been the reason for their 1-2 start. The over is 18-8-1 in Redskins last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 over in the Redskins last 5 games overall. Tampa Bay is dead last at stopping the pass and the over is 21-7-1 in the Buccaneers last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect; Play the Redskins/Buccs over the total.

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Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs   
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KC 10-4-1 ATS last 15 in the series. Why are we getting points at home? Chargers beat an Oakland team that I think is terrible. They beat a rookie QB led Tennessee team. And they welcome the Falcons in fresh off a big MNF win and a cross-country flight only to get demolished at home.. Will gladly take any points here as I see this as a false-fave situation.

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St Louis Rams +3
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In any normal situation, playing ON a team off a Monday night game has produced more ATS losers than winners. For a team like Seattle, one must also factor in the wild and wacky finish in their come-from-behind Monday HOME win against the Green Bay Packers. And just how much that LATE comeback took out of them. Not to mention the reduced week of recuperation and preparation, and a flight across half of the country. It leaves us (AND our database) very wary of laying points on the road. After all, they were tabbed as home DOGGIES in each of their last two games. So it appears that this team with the NFL's 30th-ranked offense is perceived to be a little stronger than the they really are.
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So let's look at those post-Monday ATS tendencies in our database.
0-6 ATS last 4 years: All GAME 5 or less favorites (Seahawks) playing off a Monday home game.
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Seattle was an underdog of +3 points in that Monday game...
1-9 ATS since 2005: All GAME NINE or less division road favorites (Seahawks) playing off a SU non-division home dog win.
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In fact, not only are the Seahawks playing off a home underdog win.... but they were home doggies in EACH of their last two home games (Beat the Pack and the Boys).
0-5 ATS since 2003: All NFC teams playing off back-to-back home UNDERDOGS wins (Seattle).
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The Rams went into Chicago last week and laid an egg (lost 23-6 to the Bears).
9-1 AT since 2996: All GAME SEVEN or less division home underdogs (RAMS) who scored 6 < points in their previous game.
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Up next for St Louis is a THURSDAY division home game vs the Arizona Cardinals.
9-1 ATS since 2006: All underdogs playing off a SU double-digit loss (RAMS) before playing a THURSDAY division home game.
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In this NFC WEST division, it's been ALL about the HOME team... when they're catching points
LAST season, NFC WEST division home UNDERDOGS (RAMS) went a PERFECT 6-0 ATS. In the last 4 seasons, these teams have gone 6-1 ATS in GAME 8 or less...

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NFL GOW - New England Patriots -4 *5 units

Free Plays
Seattle Seahawks -3 *3 units
New Orleans +7.5 *3 units

NFL Upset GOW - NY Giants +115

- Fo Bros

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Nationals vs. Cardinals
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The Nationals need just one more win to clinch the National League East. They wrap up their series in St. Louis with the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Ross Detwiler goes for Washington and he's 9-7 with a 3.45 ERA. Detwiler is not as solid on the road going 2-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 starts. He lost in Philadelphia after giving up 5 runs and five hits in five innings. He'll face a Cardinals team that tattoos lefties scoring 5.6 runs per game while hitting .286 against them. St. Louis is hitting over .280 at home and they’ve put up double digit hits in four of their last seven games while registering nine hits in two of the other games over that span.
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Lance Lynn is 16-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 28 starts for the Cardinals. He is making his first career start against the Nationals who are smacking the ball around themselves. Washington is hitting almost .280 in their last eight games while putting up over 6 runs per game. Washington has gone Over the total in seven of their last eight games; they pushed the total in the eighth game. The Cardinals’ bullpen picked up their 27th loss as a unit on Saturday to go along with 22 blown saves. These two teams have played five Overs in six meetings this season and we expect that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

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Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos    
Play: Denver Broncos
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The Peyton Manning era hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts in the Mile High city. After three games, the Broncos are sporting a 1-2 SU record and resting in a tie for last in the AFC West division. That’s not good enough for Manning and definitely not going to sit well with Denver Vice President of Football Operations John Elway either.
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Oakland makes the trek to the mountains off its upset home win over Pittsburgh. The Silver and Black bring with them a solid defensive front seven and a running game that can flat out get the job done. As tempting as it might look to side with the Raiders plus the points in this contest, I’ll look the other way. Denver’s hopes of winning a division title would take a serious hit if it were to lose this game and, even without the services of linebacker Joe Mays, the Orange Crush will rally the troops and respond to this challenge.
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If you want to fade the Raiders, the time to do it is when they’re nice and fat coming off a straight up win. Oakland owns a dismal 11-33 SU and 16-28 ATS after adding a victory to the win column including a jaw-dropping 4-17 ATS in this set priced as a dog between +1.5 and +8. Equally bad, when knocking helmets with a foe that arrives off a straight up loss, the Silver and Black have struggled posting a stiff 26-49 SU and 26-48-1 ATS mark including a woeful 7-26-1 ATS in this set if their foe battled in the comforts of home last.
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It is noted that the Orange Crush are a weak 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 home games. However, the history book shows that Denver has battled back and played well at home checking off a straight up home loss notching a juicy 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS record. In this role coming off a blemish of four points or more, the Broncos improve to a nearly perfect 12-1 SU and ATS!
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The Raiders have posted a 4-1 SU and ATS record in the last five meetings in this series. With Manning lined up behind center for the Broncos, that recent trend will change rather quickly. Take Denver.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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Seems as though few believe the Patriots are capable of losing three in a row. My numbers say they might just do exactly that. I have today's game virtually dead even, and that makes the Bills plus the points the side.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

Charlie ScottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets
Play: San Francisco 49ers 
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Got lucky last week with a Best Bet Winner Playing on the Jets, now it's time to play against them. Look for a motivated Niner Team to show up, off a lackluster loss @ Minn last week. The Niners spent the past week training camp style, staying in a Youngstown st dorm. Expect the Niners aggressive defense to beat up an already punchy Jet QB Sanchez. The Jets weak OL will be exploited Today. NY radio personality Mike Francessa has stated several times over the Years that Rex Ryans defense struggles vs mobile QB's and good TE's and he's right ! The Niners have both !

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

Bill Milton

Cincinnati (-) over Jacksonville

Andy Dalton has passed for 275 and 385 yards in his last two games, and last week at Washington the Bengals had a dominant 478-381 yardage edge in a win at Washington. Here they are taking on a team less talented than the Redskins, one that allowed Andrew Luck to pass for over 300 yards last week, and note that while the Jags did get the win in that game they were VERY fortunate to do so, as the Colts led late before Jacksonville got a long TD to get the win. Jags do not have a huge home edge either, as they struggle to put seats in the stands, especially against a less than marquee team. We will lay the small number in this one.

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