Australian Open Odds: Day 10 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 10 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 10 Match Analysis and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
Covers.com

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. DAVID FERRER (OVER/UNDER 31.5 GAMES)

Ferrer isn't the best player on tour, but based on the numbers he is the hottest player on tour other than Roger Federer (and arguably Andy Murray). The Spaniard reached the World Tour Finals semis last fall (destroyed a worn-out Djokovic in the process), won the Auckland title earlier this season, and is now back in the Aussie Open quarters (he reached the semifinals last year).

Ferrer, who is a respectable 5-6 lifetime against Djokovic, is coming off a 6-4, 6-4, 6-1 annihilation of Richard Gasquet. Djokovic was less impressive in an up-and-down performance against crowd favorite Lleyton Hewitt, which led to a 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 victory on Monday night. The Serb should be able to get the win on Wednesday, but Ferrer is playing too well for this to end before 32 games are played.

Pick: Over 31.5 games (-105)

ANDY MURRAY (-2.5 SETS, -180) VS. KEI NISHINKORI (+2.5 SETS, +130)

We've seen this script before; Nishikori upsets Jo-Wilfried Tsonga earlier in the tournament than gets blown out by Murray. That's what happened last fall in Shanghai, where Murray dominated his only previous meeting with the Japanese star 6-3, 6-0.
Nishikori is enjoying a great run Down Under, but this does not set up well for him. Both he and Tsonga were running on fumes late in their five-setter on Monday.

Murray on the other hand, has to be the freshest player left in the tournament. His toughest test came in the first round against Ryan Harrison, and even that was a straight-setter without a single tiebreaker. The fourth-ranked Scot has dropped a total of just 17 games in his last three matches. All signs point to another massacre in the quarterfinals.

Pick: Murray -2.5 sets

MARIA SHARAPOVA (-2 SETS, -180) VS. EKATERINA MAKAROVA

Give credit where credit is due; Makarova played solid tennis in a massive upset of Serena Williams on Monday. But the truth, of course, is that Serena was absolutely abysmal and lost the match more than Makarova won it. The world No. 56 has been on fire in Melbourne after a three-set struggle in Round 1, but she’s out of her element playing in her first career Grand Slam quarterfinal.

Sharapova, though, is right at home in the last eight of major events. The Russian triumphed Down Under in 2008 and she has won three career Grand Slam titles. She's also no stranger to beating Makarova. Sharapova leads the head-to-head series 2-0 and she most recently destroyed her countrywoman 6-1, 6-1 at the Rome Masters last spring.

Pick: Sharapova 2-0 (-180)

PETRA KVITOVA (-5.5 GAMES, -150) VS. SARA ERRANI (+5.5 GAMES, +110)

This has blowout written all over it. Kvitova has had two hiccups in Melbourne; the second set against Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round (lost it 6-2) and the second set against Ana Ivanovic in the fourth round (recovered to roll through the tiebreaker seven points to two). Aside from that, the 2011 Wimbledon champion and soon-to-be world No. 1 has been dominant and getting better from match to match.

Errrani has made an incredible run to the last eight, but a dose of reality is needed. The Italian benefited from a section of the draw vacated by two Top 10 players (Sam Stosur and Marion Bartoli). This will be a huge step up in level of competition when Errani takes on Kvitova for the first time. Furthermore, Errani will be facing the pressure of her first career Grand Slam quarterfinal.

Pick: Kvitova -5.5 games

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