Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

VEGAS EXPERTS

Purdue at Illinois

Can't see the Boilermakers losing a fourth straight game, so let's take advantage of a short number. Illinois is just 1-10 ATS when taking three or less at home and is off a ten-point loss to Michigan State themselves. Narrow conference wins over likes of Indiana and Penn State don't look that impressive.

Play on: Purdue

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

LT Profits

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors

The Cleveland Cavaliers wrapped up a winning 3-2 West Coast road trip by nipping the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, and now upon returning home, they immediately find themselves in a revenge spot vs. the Toronto Raptors.

Now granted, the Cavaliers are only 20-21-1 against the spread despite their 31-11 straight up mark, which is not surprising considering they have become such a public team. However, this is one game that they should be motivated for, and if Cleveland plays at peak level as we expect, they should win this game by double digits.

With only 11 losses all year, the Cavaliers have obviously not been in many revenge spots as they are here, as this is their first meeting with Toronto since a 101-91 loss north of the border in their second game of the season. However, in three of those revenge spots, the Cavs beat the Chicago Bulls by 14 points, the Houston Rockets by 25 and the Washington Wizards by 23, with all three of those rematches coming here at home.

Now the Raptors are a hot team, as they have won seven of their last 10 games to improve to 21-20 overall. They have thrust themselves into contention for a low-seed playoff spot, but that may actually work against them here. This is because this could potentially turn into a first round playoff preview, so in addition to the obvious revenge motive, Cleveland may also want to send a message of what to expect come April.

While we respect what Toronto has done of late, we still feel that a motivated Cavaliers team should handle them rather easily.

Pick: Cavaliers -9.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Illinois Fighting Illini +3

Purdue is struggling, having lost 3 in a row, and it gets no easier tonight against an Illinois team that has performed very well against the Boilermakers of late. Illinois has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams, sweeping the regular season series last year before losing to the Boilers in the Big Ten tourney. You can bet the Illini have not forgotten about that defeat. The Illini will be further motivated by their first Big Ten defeat this season to Michigan State last game. A big key for the Illini tonight will be the play of 7-1 junior Mike Tisdale. Tisdale had been averaging 20.3 points in his first four Big Ten contests before the Spartans held him to just two points last game. Expect him to bounce back strong tonight. Illinois is a perfect 10-0 at home this season so I'll gladly take these 3 points on its home floor. Plus, plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss by 10 points or more, on Tuesday nights, are an impressive 38-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Boilermakers are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Take Illinois and the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

JR TIPS

Raptors at Cavaliers

The Eastern Conference leading Cavaliers look to avenge an early season loss to the Toronto Raptors as they open a three-game homestand tonight. Despite the loss in their first matchup against the Raptors, LeBron James had 23 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds in losing for the first time in six games against Toronto. Cleveland is coming off a 3-2 West Coast trip finishing with a 102-101 victory over the Clippers on Saturday night. Toronto has won 10 of 13 after beating the Mavs in Dallas 110-88 while center Andrea Bargnani who had 28 points in this season's first matchup with the Cavs had 22 versus the Mavericks as the 7-footer has averaged 20.8 points and 9.2 rebounds over his last five games. This is a tough spot for the Cavaliers playing their first game at home after a long West Coast road trip. In the NBA, the toughest game to play is the first game back at home and the Oddmakers are giving up way too many points to a hot Toronto team that is playing their best basketball of the season. The Cavs should get the win but 9 ½ points is too many to give this Raptor team as this game will close in the 4 th quarter.

TAKE TORONTO +9.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Michael Cannon

Toronto +10 at CLEVELAND

I am 67-46-3 with my last 116 free plays!

Take the points with the Raptors tonight on the road over the Cavaliers.

Toronto has won 10 of its last 13 games (9-4 ATS), including a 4-2 SUATS run on the road.  The Raptors have scored more than 100 points in six straight games during their stretch.

The Cavs return home after a five-game road trip, and typically this is not the spot you want to back a heavy home chalk.

Cleveland is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home.

Take the points with the Raptors as they stay within the number on the road.

3♦ TORONTO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Karl Garrett

Indiana at MIAMI -5'

G-Man on a 6-2 comp play run the last 8 days.

Normally, I don't like to back a team after a long road trip in their first game back at home, but after 6 straight on the road for the Heat, and another 2 roadies on deck after this one tonight, I have to back Miami to handle matters tonight against Indiana.

Miami has already clobbered Indiana twice this season both straight up, and against the spread, and the hat-trick is definitely within reach, as Indiana has been a money-burner on the road this season sporting an 8-12 spread mark in their 20 highway dates.

With this being the only home game in a 9 game span, I expect Miami to come out strong and take down the Pacers by double-digits once again.

Lay the points with Miami this Tuesday night.

4♦ MIAMI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Chris Jordan

Northern Iowa +3' at WICHITA STATE

Looked very close at actually rating this game as a premium selection, but became hesitant when I looked at the trap theory ...

"Why is a ranked team catching points at an unranked conference rival?"

Usually that tells you the trap is taking the ranked underdog, but I can't shy away from Northern Iowa's defense, which has been the bread and butter of the 16-1 Panthers who are 7-0 in Missouri Valley Conference play and have held four league opponents to less than 50 points.

Northern Iowa is a unique team that has learned to play with one another, literally, as the Panthers have had the same lineup on the floor for 30 straight games ... talk about stability.

Coach Ben Jacobsen has his squad fine-tuned, as it ranks third in the nation in scoring defense, limiting foes to 54.9 points per game. And it only gets better in MVC play, as the Panthers yiled an average of 51.0 points.

In this series, Northern Iowa has won seven of nine against the Shockers.

I realize Wichita State has been tremendous at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 19.2 points while winning all 11 games there, but the Panthers are far too disciplined to overlook the importance of this conference showdown.

5♦ NORTHERN IOWA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Brett Atkins

I'm 6-4 with my last 10 free selections and I'm adding to that win total today as I lay the points with Tennessee as the Vols travel to Alabama for an SEC matchup with the Crimson Tide.

Tennessee is riding a six-game winning streak and playing with so much confidence after taking down then-No.1 Kansas on Jan. 10, 76-68 as a five-point underdog. The Vols will get the job done at Alabama tonight.

Tennessee’s Wayne Chism is the real deal as he put up 26 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the Vols’ 71-69 OT win over Ole Miss on Saturday. He played a game-high 41 minutes and showed why he is one of the elite in the SEC.

Alabama has dropped two straight, falling to Vandy at home 65-64 as a 1 ½-point favorite on Wednesday and then losing Saturday at Arkansas 71-59 as a 1 ½-point pup. The problem with the Crimson Tide is they cannot score enough points. They have managed just 66.6 over their last five games while Tennessee is putting up 76.4 points a game in the last five.

The Vols are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall while Alabama is on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 3-8 as a home ‘dog and 1-4 on Tuesdays.

I love when a player decides he is going to rise above and lead his team and that is what Chism is doing right now. Go ahead and lay the chalk with Tennessee as they will easily get this one in Alabama.

4♦ TENNESSEE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Jay McNeil

Won for a second straight day with my free play, picking Kansas State to take down No. 1 Texas. That improved my record to 16-11 over the past 27 days, and I'm going with an NBA play today to keep my momentum going forward!

The Heat are back home after a season-long six-game road trip, and they are going to take full advantage of this opportunity with just five home games until Feb. 23.

Miami already has two wins over Indiana this season, and star guard Dwyane Wade has averaged 28.5 points in those games. The Heat won both games by at least 13 points, and the Pacers are shooting just 33.8 percent against them.

Miami has won four straight and seven of eight games at home against Indiana, which is just 4-16 on the road this season.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams, and the Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog. Take the Heat to cover the points at home tonight.

3♦ MIAMI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Joel Tyson

Monday winner on Oklahoma City for free.

For Tuesday, take the points with Toronto at Cleveland.

The Cavs just played 5 straight on the road, and they will host the Lakers on Thursday in the marquee matchup of the week, so this looks like a "letdown" spot if there ever was one.

The Raptors are on a 10-3 straight up run their last 13, and a 9-4 spread run in those 13 games. Toronto also won outright early in the year against Cleveland.

This one should be a lot closer than the point spread suggests.

Take the points.

4♦ TORONTO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Pete Angelo

Northern Iowa at Wichita State

The 20th-ranked Panthers are on a roll and have arrived in Wichita, Kansas with their 7-foot monster, Jordan Eglseder.

And yet they're catching points from the Shockers.

Northern Iowa has won 15 straight ball games and leads the Missouri Valley Conference by two games over Wichita State, so increasing the lead is crucial tonight. A road win isn't impossible, as the Panthers already own wins at three of the toughest places in the conference: Creighton, Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

The Shockers won't be able to contend against that physical defense and patient offense the Panthers bring with them. They allow teams to score an average of 54.9 points and have held four Valley opponents to under 50 points.

Look for this pup to bark loudly tonight.

3♦ NORTHERN IOWA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

John Ryan

Tennessee at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama

3* graded play on Alabama as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our handicapping model/simulator shows a high probability that Alabama can win this game. Tennessee has won 4 of their past 5 ATS lined games and have ripped off 6 straight wins. One of those was our SHOCKER winner as they defeated Kansas with a depleted squad due to guns and drug related charges. The emotional and physical output over this span has made Tennessee a tired and vulnerable team. In their last game,which was home against Mississippi they barely won and shot just 35%. Tennessee is a very good team and they shoot the ball well and play solid team defense. However, Alabama has done very well against similar teams sporting a 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a Super Tuesday system that has produced a record of 43-17 against the money line for 71% winners and has made 26.4 units since 2004. Play on home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that are off a road loss by 10 points or more with the game taking place on Tuesday nights. We believe Tennessee will look very tired throughout the second half and this is where Alabama can gain control and win the game. Take the Tide.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Wunderdog

San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings   
Play: San Jose Sharks   

The Sharks were once a team that was great at home, but struggled on the road. This season however, they are equally tough on the road at 16-6-2, eclipsing the Kings’ home mark of just 13-8-2. The Sharks are in an offensive frenzy right now as they have tallied 13 in their last two. On the defensive end, they have allowed just 7 in the last five games. It will be a tough chore for the Kings’ up-and-down offense that has scored 2 or less in half of their last 14 games to hang close in this one. The Sharks are the NHL's best playing in the second of consecutive nights where they are 45-14 in their last 59. The Kings are failing to get it done vs. road teams with a .600+ winning percentage, where they are just 8-21. I'll go with San Jose here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Freddy Wills

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cavs -10

Cavs are coming off a long road trip and are on 2 days rest. The Cavs are actually very good at playing under this situation as of late. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a road trip of 7 or more days. They also come into this situation with revenge on their mind as they lost by 10 to the Raptors in the 2nd game of the season up in Toronto. This Cavs team has since gelled together and in this situation I will back the Cavs to come up with a big big win. Actually the last time they came off a long road trip they had a home court game with revenge against the Rockets who they previously lost by 10 on the road. The Cavs then took care of the Rockets 108-83 at home with the revenge as similar favorites -8.5 in that game. Toronto on 1 less day of rest and they play their worst defense in this situation and they are already playing the worst defense in the league. I really smell a double digit loss coming here tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Hollywood Sports

Tennessee at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama

Tennessee (14-2) concluded a four-game home stand with a 71-69 overtime win over Mississippi on Saturday. But the Volunteers are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine following at least three straight home games. Four Tennessee players were suspended from the team over a week ago after an incident that results in drug and weapon charges. Forward Tyler Smith was the Vols second leading scorer -- and he has been dismissed from the team. Backup center Brian Williams also remains suspended. Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum are now practicing with the team again but they will probably not play in Tuesday's game. Overall, Tennessee has to replace 32.5 points of scoring from these four players. And the Volunteers have only six scholarship players who will play tonight. This is a tough situation for a Tennessee team that is just playing their third game on their opponent's home court. Tennessee has failed to cover in their last four road games as a favorite of under seven points. Alabama (11-6) has lost two games in a row after losing 71-59 at Arkansas. But the Crimson Tide is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a loss. And at home, Alabama sports a 7-3 record with a +10.9 net point differential. Alabama's defense at home is very good as they hold their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field. This defensive effort should stymie a Volunteers team that lacks experience playing on the road this season. Take the points with Alabama.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

TEDDY COVERS

Clemson @ Georgia Tech
PICK: Georgia Tech -1.5

We’ve seen this story from Clemson before. Last year, the Tigers started out the year with a 16-0 record. They were a sub .500 squad the rest of the way. In 2008, Clemson started 12-1. They closed out the back half of the season going 12-9. In ’07, it was a 17-0 start, followed by an 8-11 finish. Half of those eight wins came in the NIT tournament. In ’06, the Tigers won their first eleven games, then proceeded to lose ten of their next 13. Oliver Purnell’s track record is very clear – great starts, not so great finishes. Their 15-3 start here in 2010 must be taken with a grain of salt.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is the real deal. They are 8-1 at home this year, including an outright upset as seven point home underdogs against Duke last week. Their only home loss came in overtime against Florida State; a game in which point guard Iman Shumpert was sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. Shumpert is coming off a 30 point, six assist, four rebound, three steal game against North Carolina, leading the Yellow Jackets to an upset win over the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. This is one player whose ability we do not want to underestimate, particularly in an uptempo game like this one.

Clemson’s starting point guard, Demontez Stitt, has started every game this year. He’s the team’s leading assist man and their second leading scorer. Stitt is doubtful to play this evening with a foot injury, and even if he suits up, he’ll be at less than 100%. That leaves untested sophomore Andre Young forced to match up at the point against Shumpert. And let’s not forget that this Georgia Tech defense forces more than 16 turnovers per game, while holding opposing teams to 37% shooting, a difficult matchup for the Tigers even if Stitt was healthy. The price here is cheap for the better team in the better spot.
2* Take Georgia Tech

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Oklahoma Sooners +7.5

Texas A&M will be ready to go tonight off back-to-back losses but odds makers are giving the Aggies too much respect with this line against an Oklahoma team playing well off back-to-back wins. This has been a very one-sided affair with Oklahoma taking 20 of the last 24 meetings dating back to 1997. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Texas A&M and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Look for the Sooners to keep this one within the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Dave Price

1 Unit on Clemson/Georgia Tech UNDER 142

Expect to see a tough defensive battle tonight between a pair of very good defensive basketball teams. Clemson is only allowing 62.6 ppg this season and Tech is only giving up 63.5 ppg. It is also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams forcing 18 or more turnovers/game and 25-15 UNDER vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games under coach Hewitt. The public is all over the Over in this one so I feel very comfortable in backing the Under in this situation.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

King Creole

George Mason +3.5 vs Hofstra

The Patriots already took this season's earlier meeting against the Pride back on January 4th. Looks a clean SWEEP is in order on Tuesday night. In the last two seasons, George Mason has won ALL 4 games in outright fashion.

Patriots are playing their best basketball of the season, and it's nice to grab a couple of buckets worth of points with such a hot team. Mason is 3-0 SU in their last 3... 5-1 in their last 6... and 7-2 in their last  9. Their most recent game was on the road against James Madison (as dogs of +2 points). They won that won by DOUBLE-DIGITS (final score: 82-71). Meanwhile, the Pride of Hofstra is already 2-6 ATS in all home games this season... and that includes a PERFECT 0-5 ATS when  the game line is 10 or less points. Current streaks for Hofstra include 0-3 in their last 3 games... 1-5 in their last 6... and 2-7 in their last 9 (the EXACT opposite of the Patriots!).

29-13 ATS this season: All Conference road dogs of < 9 points playing off a SU win (G MASON) vs any opponent off a SU loss (Hofstra). These dogs are 12-3 ATS of playing off a DIG win (G MASON)... and 4-0 ATS when playing 'into' REVENGE.

0-3 ATS so far this season: All Conference home teams playing off 3 or more losses in a row (Hofstra)... versus any opponent playing off 3 or more WINS in a row (G MASON).

5-1 ATS so far this season: All Conference road teams playing off a SU Conference road DOG wing of 10 or more points (G MASON).

We wrap things up with a SPECIFIC query for the CAA Conference (Colonial Athletic Association)...1-8-1 ATS since 2002: All CAA home favorites of < 8 points (Hofstra) playing with 'SSR1' (same-season Revenge)... versus any conference opponent playing off a DD SU win (G MASON). And if that DD win was as an Underdog, these overpriced home favorites have gone a PERFECT 0-6-1 ATS.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Drew Gordon

Indiana +6' at MIAMI

40-25-3 roll L68 Free Plays (8-2 L10), incl. the Grizz over the Suns Monday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pacers/Heat match up.

The public seems to love the Heat in this spot, but I couldn't disagree more! So what if the Heat routed the Pacers twice already this season?! If anything, you can expect Indiana to bring it's "A" game in an attempt to avoid a third straight embarassing loss in this series. Sorry Heat-backers, but the motivational edge lies with Indiana tonight.

Also, you have to like the fact the Pacers are finally getting healthy with both Granger and Murphy returning to the lineup. Both players have had a couple games to shake the rust off, so look for this Pacers team to be firing on all cylinders tonight. Granger is a beast, while Murphy contributes on offense, but also allows the Pacers to go big on defense with him at PF and 7'2 Hibbert at center. This is a match up problem for a Heat team with size issues upfront (and don't talk to me about a 1-legged Jermaine O'neall).

Finally, one has to wonder about the Heat's focus in this contest, coming off a long trip, with this home game sandwiched in between another couple roadies. This is simply not a good situation to be laying this many with a Miami team thats been VERY inconsistent this season. Note, the dog in this series is an outstanding 20-6-2 ATS L28 meetings! In the end, the Pacers have a little score to settle here, and while they may not win SU, I say they reward their backers with the cash!

Take Indiana plus the points over Miami in this NBA match up.

2&#9830; INDIANA

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