Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Charley Sutton

Bad call yesterday as the Ravens and Patriots go Over the Total, unlike I what I said would go down.

That’s fine because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Golden State Warriors at home against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.

Coming into this game, even though the Warriors are just 11-24 SU this season, the team has been a money maker, going 19-15-1 ATS this season.

At home, the Warriors are 9-5 ATS and have covered in 3 straight in Oakland. In fact, Golden State rides into tonight’s game red-hot as a money maker, having covered in 7 of its last 8 games, including three straight covers overall.

Now the Warriors battle a Cavaliers team that’s covered in just 2 of its last 6 games and is just 1-2 ATS its last 3 road games.

Keep in mind, also, over the last few seasons the Warriors have gone 3-1 ATS their last 4 games against the Cavs, including a cover when these two met in Cleveland on Nov. 17.

The Warriors will cash in again tonight against the struggling Cavaliers.

3 ♦ WARRIORS

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Joel Tyson

NBA free play for Monday, as I am looking for the back-to-back days on the court to hurt the visiting Raptors.

Toronto comes to Indiana with an 8-12 spread mark on the road this year, and while the Pacers have been struggling of late, this series has been dominated by the host, and I expect the trend to continue on Monday.

The home team has won and covered the last 5 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 both straight up, and against the spread.

Toronto still too inconsistent on the road to be trusted.

Take Indiana.

1♦ INDIANA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Chuck O'Brien

Scored a nice 5♦ free winner with the Cardinals in NFL playoff action on Sunday. Now let’s take Oklahoma State in a virtual pick-em situation at Oklahoma in Monday’s college hoops action.

These rivalry games can be tough to handicap at times, but this line seems way out of whack to me even though the Cowboys are the road team. Oklahoma State is off to a 13-2 start to this season and likely will crack the Top 25 today, and it tipped off the Big 12 season with an 81-52 annihilation of Texas Tech as a seven-point favorite on Saturday. On the other hand, the Sooners are just 9-6 SU and 4-8 ATS on the year and have dropped three of their last four. That includes Saturday’s disastrous performance at Baylor in which Oklahoma lost 91-60 as a seven-point road underdog.

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but the two best wins came against opponents (Arizona and Arkansas) that are way down this year. The Sooners have suffered four double-digit losses this season (three in the last four games, broken up only by a home win over Maryland-Eastern Shore). And while the Sooners have been a pointspread nightmare lately (four straight non-covers overall; four straight non-covers in Big 12 play), Oklahoma State is on an incredible 17-3-1 ATS tear, including cashing in 10 of its last 11 conference games. The Cowboys also played the Sooners (a Top 5 team) tough last year, losing by four in Norman as a nine-point underdog then pulling an upset as a five-point pup in the Big 12 tournament.

3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

John Ryan

Eastern Illinois at Murray St.
Prediction: Eastern Illinois

3* graded play on Eastern Illinois and as they face Murray State set to start at 8:00 EST . Our handicapping model shows that this is just too many points for Murray State to cover. Murray State is the clear favorite to win the OVC. They are coming off a solid win defeating Austin Peay 69-53 and were installed as 4 point favorites. EL has won 3 straight and 6 of the past 7. In their last game they destroyed SE Missouri State 88-68 as 10 point favorites. Murray State has used solid defense to generate offensive opportunities. We think that EI has the personnel to match up well against Murray State. Further, we have seen teams that have had 4 consecutive games playing strong defense keeping opponents to under 40% shooting fall flat in the next game. Murray State falls into this assessment noting that they are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. EI is on a solid winning streak and has a lot going for it entering this game and the following system under scores this fact. This system has posted a 29-7 80.6% winning record since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Take Eastern Illinois.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Dave Price

1 Unit on Utah Jazz -7

Tough spot for a Miami club that just played last night as it faces a Jazz team that is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Plus, Utah should be especially motivated in this spot against a team that has had its number of late. The Jazz fell 70-80 in Miami last month, and I fully expect them to pay the Heat back here. Revenge has been a strong motivating factor for the Jazz as they are 15-5 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.6 to 96.7. Lay the points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Spartan

Villanova +3 vs Louisville

I'll gladly support a play here on the Wildcats getting points, even at Louisville. Villanova at 14-1 is shaping up to be a serious contender come march for a deep run. Sure, they got into a scrap with Marquette this weekend and narrowly escaped with a 78-76 victory but the point is they prevailed and held off a good Marquette team giving the Wildcats their best shot. Nova has been cashing tickets for it's backer at an impressive 10-4 clip against the number. Rick Pitino's Cardinals have been a losing proposition for bettors thus far and I am predicting that trend will stay in play at the conclusion of tonight. Free release for Monday on the Villanova Wildcats getting the 3 points guys!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Larry Ness

Oklahoma +1 vs Oklahoma St.

The Sooners knew life was going to be tough without Blake Griffin (22.7-8.1), who left early and was the No. 1 pick in the NBA last April. Also gone from LY's 30-win, Elite 8 team were Griffin's brother Taylor (9.6-5.8) and PG Johnson (8.6-3.9 APG). However, Warren (17.8-3.3-4.4) and Crocker (13.6-7.1) were expected to lead the way with three talented freshman coming in. "Tiny" Gallon (11.9-8.6) is part of the starting lineup with guards Mason-Griffin (10.1-4.9 APG) and Pledger (7.7) often coming off the bench. Junior Cade Davis (8.1) is in the starting lineup these days but the Sooners are just 9-6 heading into this game with in-state rival Oklahoma St. The Sooners were embarrassed in their conference opener on Saturday, losing at Baylor. Oklahoma had won 30 in a row vs Baylor before falling in Waco for the first time since 1954. The Cowboys opened their Big 12 schedule in convincing fashion on Saturday, as they trounced nationally-ranked Texas Tech 81-52. The Cowboys improved to 13-2 overall and are led by big guards Anderson (21.9-5.9) and Muonelo (12.0-5.3). The 6-7 Moses (10.5-9.5) came into his own last year when the 6-11 Thomas left school after seven games and this year is getting some help inside from the 6-8 Pilgrim (7.6-6.4), who came from Kentucky by way of Hampton University. Page (10.3) and freshman guard Penn (8.1-2.8 APG) are trying to replace graduated PG Eaton (14.3-5.7 APG) plus the Cowboys miss Harris' 13.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG he gave them LY as another big 6-5 guard. All in all, Travis Ford's team has been fairly impressive. Oklahoma won both regular season meetings LY but the Cowboys knocked off the Sooners in the Big 12 tourney. This is the first meeting this year and with the Sooners coming off that embarrassing game in Waco, I expect an excellent effort from Oklahoma. Let's also note that OSU could be flying a little too high off its win over Texas Tech. Note that the Sooners are 7-0 at home this year, winning on average by 81.0-to-62.3 PPG. Take the home team.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Craig Davis

Tonight's free play is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the number in Boston. The oddsmakers are just begging us to take Boston... and why not? They just lost in Atlanta a few nights ago but were competitive for three-and-a-half quarters. You'd be thinking Boston at home on a revenge game might be listed around 6 or so... but that's not the case... and I'm not falling for the trap. Boston could easily cover this number if they came to play, but I just don't think they matchup that well without Kevin Garnett on the floor and I doubt he'll be back for this game. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are absolutely going to light up the Boston night tonight and I'll be surprised if they don't score105 or more points tonight. Atlanta is younger and appears to be more athletic right now, and without their emotional leader to give them a boost tonight, Atlanta should be able to take full advantage. I like how Atlanta hit free throws in their last game and they're starting to rebound the ball too. I'm siding with the road team to get the outright sweep in these first two games. Take Atlanta.

2&#9830; ATLANTA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Rocketman

Toronto @ Indiana
Play: Toronto +2.5

Toronto is 19-18 overall this year while Indiana is 11-25 on the season. Toronto is 7-1 SU and ATS against Central Division opponents this year. Indiana is 2-9 ATS this year when the total is 210 or higher. Toronto is 8-2 SU their last 10 games overall. Indiana is 2-11 SU their last 13 games overall. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central. Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Pacers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU loss. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Hollywood Sports

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics

Coach Doc Rivers has his team primed to take it to Atlanta on Monday. After the Celtics 93-85 loss to the Hawks on Friday (their second loss to Atlanta this season), Rivers had this to say about how his team compares to Atlanta: "I thought the Hawks were more physical than us, and they really attacked us, especially in the second half ... I thought we played well early, but then they took over the game from there. Right now you have to give it to them. They are the better team." The Celtics bounced back on Sunday to defeat the Raptors by a 114-107 score. While the Celtics will likely still be without Kevin Garnett with his hyperextended knee, Rasheed Wallace filled in nicely at power forward against Toronto by scoring 29 points. Now the Celtics wait for Atlanta at home where they enjoy an 11-4 record with a +9.3 net point differential with a 49.6% shooting percentage and a 44.4% defensive field goal mark. While the Hawks are 9-9 on the road, they do have a -0.2 net point differential away from home. Atlanta has failed to cover in their last seven road games as an underdog of under five points. The Celtics have covered their last six games as a favorite of under five points. Atlanta was destroyed by the Magic on Saturday by a whopping 32 points. That game may have done enough to rattle Atlanta's confidence as they now face a Celtics' teams that has been called out by their coach to take care of business in this game. Lay the points with the Celtics.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

TEDDY COVERS

New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: New Orleans Hornets +2 

I don’t make many bets based solely on trends and angles. That being said, when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at the Wachovia Center, there’s only one bet to make – supporting their opponent. The numbers don’t lie. Philadelphia is 4-12 SU, 2-14 ATS at home this year, and one of those two ATS covers came back on opening night. When a team goes 1-14 ATS at home over a ten week span, it’s no accident – there is a legitimate home court disadvantage for this team, playing in front of lackluster, lethargic crowds on a floor where opponent after opponent is convinced that this is the spot to pick up a coveted road victory.

While Philadelphia is a pointspread disaster area at home, the New Orleans Hornets are headed in the other direction. The Hornets started the season by going 2-13 SU in their first 15 road games, a prevailing trend similar to Philly’s, making them virtually unbackable on the highway. But in the last two weeks, New Orleans has won six straight, including all three previous tries as a road underdog at Utah, Oklahoma City and Washington. The Hornets have swept this season series in each of the last two years, facing better 76ers teams than this one…. 2* Take the Hornets.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

ALEX SMART

Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Under190

If the Hawks could just figure out a way to stay out of Florida, they'd be in a lot better shape. Their L/2 ATS defeats came in Orlando and in Miami, and they only scored a total of 156 points in those two games. That's incredibly uncharacteristic for a squad that is putting up the sixth most points per game in the NBA this year (103.4). Rebounding is starting to become an issue for this slightly undersized squad. After F Al Horford (9.8 rebounds per game) and F Josh Smith (8.1 rebounds per game), no one is bringing down more than five boards a night.

Injuries continue to be the theme of the Celtics, but G Rajon Rondo and F Paul Pierce now look to be at 100% and ready to keep Boston on track towards another Atlantic Division title. The question marks left on this team are F Kevin Garnett and G Tony Allen, both of which could be back in the lineup playing regular minutes any day now. HC Doc Rivers' squad is all about the defense, as it ranks in the Top-10 in every major defensive category.

Atlanta has had its way with Boston this season. The Hawks won 93-85 at home against the Celtics just three days ago, and posted an impressive 97-86 victory in their first visit to the Garden this year back in November. With Boston looking to finally get one against these guys, we’re gonna stay away from the side and play into the ‘total’ instead. The under has cashed 12 of the L/16 times Atlanta’s been installed an underdog, and its cashed 19 of the L/28 times Boston’s played on no rest. These teams have already played to the under twice this season, and its cashed 10 of the L/14 times these teams have met in Boston. Look for a defensive minded slugfest tonight as well!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

SPORTS WAGERS

GOLDEN STATE +6 over Cleveland

The Warriors won’t play many big games this season but they get tremendous fan support and one has to figure the place to be rocking tonight, as King James and the Cav’s make a rare appearance. It’s been about a year since the Cav’s were last here and prior to that it was about three years, thus, Cleveland has played in Golden State just twice over the past four years. This is definitely one of the games that the players, fans and city will be juiced up for and it comes in a perfect spot for the host. Cleveland played last night in Portland, they played Friday in Denver and this will be its third game in four nights after a win last night. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been off since Friday. They’re well rested for sure, they’ve gone 7-1 ATS over its last eight games and they’re talented enough that if they catch the Cav’s a bit flat they can pull the upset. You always pay a premium to wager on Cleveland vs an average team and this line is low enough to entice quite a bit of action on the better team. However, in this case we’re going to side with the “house”, as most folks will be laying the lumber. Play: Golden State +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


San Jose St +8 over FRESNO ST.

Unlike the pros, W/L records in college sports is very misleading indeed. The Fresno St Bulldogs are a prime example of that. They’ve won three in a row but they beat Colorado St, Boise St by just three and Hawaii. Colorado St is 12-5, but they, too, have played a whole bunch of nobodies. The Bulldogs are just 9-7 overall and its scheduled games thus far have been brutal. Not only have they lost to teams like Seattle, Santa Clara and Pacific to name a few but a bunch of their wins have been by the slimmest of margins. This is a team that has no bench and nothing to offer as a 8-point favorite. The Spartans record is virtually the same at 8-6 and they, too, have some disturbing losses. However, they’ve won five of its last seven and they have two very good losses on its résumé this year. San Jose St. hung tough with #10 Washington, losing by just 10 and two weeks after that they lost to a very strong St. Mary’s squad by just seven. Player for player, the Spartans are the better team here, they’ve played the tougher schedule and they’re getting way too many points in this one. Upset possibility. Play: San Jose St. +8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).   


CALGARY -½ +1.00 over Colorado

The Flames are not the best team to lay a half puck with because of its lack of offense but one has to figure they want this one badly. You see, these two have played three times this season and the Avalanche have won them all and that can’t be sitting well with anyone. Calgary is coming off one of its best performances of the year on Saturday when they went into Vancouver and beat the Canuck 3-2 while outshooting them 40-21. That’s two games in a row they've held the opposition to a very low shot total and that’s a very good sign indeed. The Av’s are coming off a nice 4-3 win over the Sabres but they only have one regulation win over its last five games. That includes losses to the Islanders and Canes and we’re starting to see this team slowly playing at the level they should be. Colorado will also be playing its sixth road game in its last seven outings, its seventh game in 12 nights and they’ll be playing it without a couple of key defenseman, as both Foote and Clark are out. Craig Anderson has stolen enough games this season but under these conditions against what should be a motivated Flames team it’s unlikely he does it again. Play: Calgary -½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Tony Weston

Just a horrible call yesterday as the Packers and Cardinals put up plenty of points in a shootout that goes well Over the Total.

I’m not making a mistake tonight as I’m delivering with Villanova on the road at Louisville.

The Wildcats come into this game 14-1 SU this season and having covered in 10 of 14 lined games this season and now get to battle a Louisville team that’s covered in just 5 of 11 lined games this year.

Consider that Villanova has won 5 consecutive games SU and has gone 4-1 ATS in that stretch. On the road this year the Wildcats have gone 5-3 ATS and have covered in each of their last 2 games away from home.

Louisville, on the other hand, has covered in just 10 of its last 38 home games against teams with a winning road record and is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games coming off a SU win.

The Cardinals have covered in just 3 of their last 9 lined games and will drop another one tonight. Take Villanova on the road in this one.

3&#9830; VILLANOVA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Drew Gordon

New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA -1'

34-23-3 roll L60 Free Plays, incl. the Cardinals Sunday & Cowboys Saturday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hornets/76ers match up.

You guys really think betting the NBA is that easy? Yes, the surging Hornets are a "seemingly" attractive play as road underdogs at Philly tonight, but that hardly means they're an automatic buy! They've won 6 straight and average bettors everywhere are lining up to take them at this price tonight... As usual, its too little, too late for the average guys, as this streak ends tonight and here's why:

First of all this Hornets team may have won 6 straight  (5-1 ATS), but have you acutally watched those games? Guys, we're talking about a team that barely beat New Jersey at home, and played a close game at Washington in their L2 games! Now they're in a situational bind, playing in the tail-end of a back-to-back, against a rested Philly team desperate for a home win.

That brings me to my next point, the 76ers have lost 4 straight in front of the home fans, and are highly-motivated after a confidence-building win at Detroit. They played one of their better games this season Saturday, and I expect that will carryover tonight.

Finally, although I know there's a lot of trends pointing the other way, one trend that really stands out to me is the Hornets 2-9 record ATS in their L11 games vs a team with a losing record! In other words, New Orleans tends to play down to the level of their competition, and I expect that'll happen once again tonight. In the end, the public gets massacred in this spot, but my clients know better, as the 76ers circle the wagons at home Monday night!

Take Philadelphia over New Orleans in this NBA match up.

2&#9830; PHILADELPHIA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Dominic Fazzini

Miami +7' at UTAH

Give credit to Bruce Pearl and his Tennessee basketball  team for stepping up though short-handed Sunday and taking down top-ranked Kansas. I didn't see that coming and got stuck with a loss with my complimentary selection in the process. I'm still on a 55-36-1 run, including 38-23-1 over the past 62 days, however.

I've got an NBA winner for you today, backing the underdog Heat at Utah. Miami has struggled a bit lately, losing five of its last seven games, but it loves playing against the Jazz.

The Heat has won 11 of their last 12 games against Utah, including four straight in Salt Lake City, and also has gone 11-1 ATS during that time.

Miami held the Jazz to 70 points on Dec. 23 in the teams' last meeting, a 10-point home win by the Heat.

Miami star Dwyane Wade has thrived in his last five games in Salt Lake, averaging 27 points and 7.4 assists, shooting 50 percent in the process.

The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Utah, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings. Take Miami to cover the points as a 'dog tonight.

3&#9830; MIAMI

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Jack Jones

Raptors/Pacers OVER 216.5

The last four times these two teams have met at least one of them has reached 110 points. On November 24th the Raptors won 123-112, then last April it was Indiana wnning 130-101. The last two games the Pacers have played have seen scores of 109-116 against Minnesota and 102-108 against Oklahoma City, and those aren't even two fast-paced teams. The Pacers are 15-5 OVER at home after two straight games going over 100 points the past two seasons.

Toronto has scored at least 107 points in three straight games and they have given up more than 100 in each of those as well. Thi sis a team that is allowing 109 ppg on the road this year on 49% shooting, while scoring 103.3 ppg themselves. Indiana has allowed 104 ppg this year, and with the defense these two teams have been playing, this game has a great chance of going over the total.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
223999 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45844
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
290155
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.2
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3753
Newest User:
Spread Winners
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1962

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com