Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

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1 Unit Lakers -9.5

3 Units Capitals -135

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Ben Burns

Murray St. at Louisiana Tech
Prediction: Louisiana Tech

I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their most recent lined game. They were blown out at Arizona. However, that was on the road against a strong team which had something to prove. The Bulldogs did bounce back with a double OT victory over the Centenary Gentlemen last time out. (Note that was also on the road.) In my opinion, the fact that they struggled with the Gentlemen (was a natural letdown spot) and that they were beaten soundly by the Wildcats has provided us with some excellent value here. Even though I played against the Bulldogs at Arizona, I believe that they're a very good team, one capable of beating most teams, when playing on their home floor. They've already beaten a relatively solid Miami Ohio team here, in addition to beating TCU on the road. While they've played a lot of road games, note that they're perfect here on the season. Also, note that they've got three senior starters and a sixth man, who is also a senior. Coach Kerry Rupp knows that "the time is now" for his program. He was quoted as saying: "With this being our third year, with the discipline we've put in place, the foundation we've laid, with the experienced players and the new players we've brought in there is a sense of urgency with this program..." Even with the loss at Arizona, the Bulldogs are still a very profitable 12-4 ATS their last 16 lined games. Like the Bulldogs, the Racers also have a great record to start the season. With the exception of a loss vs. Cal, they haven't played any good teams all year though - many of their games have been of the 'unlined' variety and they've been favorites in all the rest, with the exception of the game vs. the Bears. While they did cover vs. Cal, the Racers are still an awful 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. They're also 6-14-1 ATS the last 21 times that they played a game with a total in the 140s and a money-burning 38-67 ATS their last 100+ lined games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored, incl. 3-1 ATS as a home fav. (or pick'em) of three points or less. I expect them to improve to 9-1 ATS their last 10 lined games, after having allowed 80 or more in their previous game. *9 Personal Fav

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

RAS

All for 1 Unit

#729 Port St. +15

#722 S. Miss -8'

# 728 LA Tech -2

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: Wyoming at Tennessee Dec 15 2009 7:00PM
Prediction: Tennessee
Reason: Play on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. While most of the campus in Laramie, Wyoming gets ready for this Saturday's New Mexico Bowl (school's 1st bowl appearance since '04 and just their second since '93), the poor basketball team will be served on a platter to 8th ranked Tennessee Tuesday in Knoxville. The Vols moved up a spot in the latest poll thanks to then third-ranked Villanova falling Sunday at Temple, a game we were unfortunate enough to be on the wrong side on. Oh well, it's been a great season (see promo again for full details) and our pain will be Bruce Pearl's pain. This will be just Wyoming's second road game of the season with their first being an 80-77 loss to another one of our favorite's, Denver. Historically, the Cowboys have not been a good road team, particularly when coming off a SU win. Dating all the way back to the '97 season, they are just 33-57 ATS in this situation and if it was a home win that figure drops to 22-42 vs. the number. If they are off BB home wins, they are 7-18 ATS. Tennessee will be excited for this matchup as it is just their second game in 13 days. Their only game last week saw them destroy in-state rival MTSU 75--54. Even better is the fact the Pearl was able to use his bench liberally, showing off his team's depth, as senior guard J.P. Prince led the way with 17 points. This really shapes up as a total mismatch as both teams like to play at around 75 possessions per game, only UT scores far more. The Cowboys weren't even averaging a point per possession heading into the six-point win over Northern Colorado on Saturday, a game which they shot just 40% from the floor. It was the sixth straight game where the team shot 41% or worse from the floor. Good luck against a Vols team that is averaging nearly 93 PPG on this floor. Making matters worse is the fact the Wyoming has been a bit banged up with leading scorer Muojeke missing time. He plays here, but it won't be nearly enough. Tennessee is our 20* CBB Non-Conference Blowout of the Month.


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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

BRANDON LANG

10 DIME - MURRAY STATE RACERS - Like the makeup of this Murray State team.

They return 3 starters and 3 other players who saw significant minutes from a squad that went 19-12 last year and found themselves opening the season at Cal as a 13 point underdog.

No worries as they were in the game the whole way before succumbing down the stretch 75-70 easily getting the cover, while outrebounding the bigger Bears 30-28.

No worries as they have sinced reeled off 8 wins in a row SU, and this team is coming together rather nicely led by Ivan Aska, Danero Thomas and Tony Easley cleaning up the glass.

Now they face a Louisiana Tech team coming off a bad effort at Arizona losing 83-67 as a 5 point dog and then followed that up with a very lack luster effort at Centenary.

Facing a squad that is picked last in by everyone in the Summit league, L'Tech had to go to overtime to get a hard fought 102-96 win in a game they allowed 48 first half points and were down 16.

I truly feel Murray State is the better team here and with the linemaker is trying to trap you here with a low 2 point home number, it's a trap I won't fall for this time around.

Going to grab the small dog to take care of business and get the road win for their 9th straight win overall.

FREE SELECTION - PORTLAND STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Dave Malinsky

4* GEORGIA STATE +18 over FLORIDA STATE

When we see a Side this high and a Total this low the oddsmakers are calling for extreme dominance by the favorite. We can not put this matchup anywhere near that projection, and in a slowly-paced affair with intense defense from both sides, points are so hard to come by that this pointspread is a mountain to overcome. To view from a different angle, based on the current Side/Total, the oddsmakers are calling for Florida State to score slightly more than 57 percent of all of the game?s points. That is a plateau that we rarely find, and the Seminoles will be hard-pressed to make that happen. They are going to be able to grind out some wins because of their superb defense, but offense is another matter entirely ? they are averaging a hideous 18 turnovers per game, and are -39 in assist to turnover ratio, while only knocking down 64.2 percent of their free throws. In five of six lined games they have failed to reach 65 points. Now that offense will show up out of sync in playing for the first time in nine days, and with bigger games on deck (they host Auburn Thursday, then the A.C.C. opener at Georgia Tech on Sunday) do not look for Leonard Hamilton to be margin-conscious here. Georgia State will have its own struggles on offense, but Rod Barnes has a veteran roster that has had a couple of seasons to buy into his defensive principles, and with four SR?s in the starting lineup, and two more in key spots in the rotation, it shows ? they have yet to allow any team to score more than 70 points, holding the opposition to 37.4 percent from the field and 23.3 from 3-point range. This is also a much easier adjustment than the usual one-off road trip, since they have been in Tallahassee since Saturday, losing a 60-58 heat-breaker to Florida A&M down the street on Sunday afternoon. Having battled F.S.U. to the wire in a 62-57 home loss LY they bring the confidence level of knowing that they can compete against this opponent, and their tenacity on defense keeps this much closer than the market projections.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

3* PHOENIX SUNS

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Charlie

500* Florida State -17
500* Minnesota -25
500* Sacramento @ Portland Over 199
30* Chicago +10
20* Phoenix -3
20* Portland -7
10* La Lafayette +8'
Charlotte -5 Free Play

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Jason Johnson

Spurs at Suns
Pick: Suns -3

The Suns will be happy to return home from their recent road woes. While they have lost five straight away from home, Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 in the friendly confines. Shooting 51.7% from the field and 47.6% from the arc in the desert heat is the reason for the hot home start.

Look for this trend to continue tonight against a Spurs defense that doesn't seem to hit the glass very hard on the road. Despite their inside advantage, San Antonio is consistantly out-rebounded in road games.

Suns get the check mark at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

The Duke's Sports

Toronto (+7) for 2 Units

The Raptors have done well in this series at 12-3 ATS, including 4-0 ATS at Miami. Toronto's Bosh and Turkoglu are a dangerous offensive combination, and throw Jarrett Jack in the mix, the Raptors have a fighting chance on the road. Moreover,the Raptors have a decent bench and are a good rebounding team. The Heat are not playing good basketball now; they're allowing nearly 107 ppg in December and erratic offensively. Toronto is 11-5 ATS when their opponent allows 100+ in the previous game. And with Miami at 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games and 2-8 ATS on 1 day of rest, we'll look for Toronto to be competitive here.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

igz1 sports

3* Sacramento vs Portland Under 200

3* Rider vs Rutgers Under 136.5
3* Minnesota -25

3* Calgary -110

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Marc Lawrence

Phoenix -3

When the Suns host the Spurs in Phoenix tonight they will do so knowing they are 13-4 ATS in this series when San Antonio is off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including 6-1 ATS at home. With the Spurs just 1-5 ATS on the road this season, including 0-3 ATS as a dog, look for the Suns to set on San Antonio this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Ron Raymond

Calgary -110

2 Keys to selection

1. When CALGARY played as any home/road team - During Current Season - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; the Flames are 8-4 SU in this cycle this year.

2. When ST LOUIS team played as a home team - Coming off vs Western Conference opponent - Total is 5.0 - Coming off vs Northwest division opponent - Coming off a 1 game loss; the Blues are 3-7 SU in this role since ’97.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Tony George

San Antonio +3

The Spurs won both contests in here last year and despite their overall record, they managed to lose only 3 games in their last 11, and I always go on recent performance. The Spurs are healthy and that is KEY and I see them scoring more across the roster now, and having that team unity, which also translates into better defense for them. If the Suns are favored by only 3 as an undefeated home host, that tells you something, oddsmakers think the Spurs will win and they want action on the home team with a short number in my opinion. Take the points as I you have a live road dog here. This is a trap line, we expose it.

Play 1 Unit on the Spurs.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Rocketman

Louisiana Lafayette +9.5

Ragin' Cajuns are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Ragin' Cajuns are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Ragin' Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Ragin' Cajuns are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. Ragin' Cajuns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Ragin' Cajuns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. We'll play Louisiana Lafayette for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Blade wrote:


Ben Burns

Murray St. at Louisiana Tech
Prediction: Louisiana Tech

I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their most recent lined game. They were blown out at Arizona. However, that was on the road against a strong team which had something to prove. The Bulldogs did bounce back with a double OT victory over the Centenary Gentlemen last time out. (Note that was also on the road.) In my opinion, the fact that they struggled with the Gentlemen (was a natural letdown spot) and that they were beaten soundly by the Wildcats has provided us with some excellent value here. Even though I played against the Bulldogs at Arizona, I believe that they're a very good team, one capable of beating most teams, when playing on their home floor. They've already beaten a relatively solid Miami Ohio team here, in addition to beating TCU on the road. While they've played a lot of road games, note that they're perfect here on the season. Also, note that they've got three senior starters and a sixth man, who is also a senior. Coach Kerry Rupp knows that "the time is now" for his program. He was quoted as saying: "With this being our third year, with the discipline we've put in place, the foundation we've laid, with the experienced players and the new players we've brought in there is a sense of urgency with this program..." Even with the loss at Arizona, the Bulldogs are still a very profitable 12-4 ATS their last 16 lined games. Like the Bulldogs, the Racers also have a great record to start the season. With the exception of a loss vs. Cal, they haven't played any good teams all year though - many of their games have been of the 'unlined' variety and they've been favorites in all the rest, with the exception of the game vs. the Bears. While they did cover vs. Cal, the Racers are still an awful 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. They're also 6-14-1 ATS the last 21 times that they played a game with a total in the 140s and a money-burning 38-67 ATS their last 100+ lined games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored, incl. 3-1 ATS as a home fav. (or pick'em) of three points or less. I expect them to improve to 9-1 ATS their last 10 lined games, after having allowed 80 or more in their previous game. *9 Personal Fav

Main Event - Chicago Bulls

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

MR EAST

NCAAB TUESDAY PICTURE PERFECT 17-0 ATS

WYOMING COWBOYS @ TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
3 UNITS: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS -22

The Tennessee Vols have a very potent offense, and really like to get up and down the floor. The last 3 games have seen this team red-hot, as they have shot 86-168 for 51.2%. The Cowboys depend on getting to the line for points, and Tennessee gets to the line more than their opponets by far, so those points won't be there. This game fits into a 17-0 ATS system that plays on hot shooting teams, vs teams that are getting to the line a lot, and plays on Tennessee here. I'm making the Vols a mid-level 5 unit play here.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Great Lakes Sports

Sacramento at Portland
Play: 4* Portland

The Portland Trailblazers are a very solid 5-1 ATS vs the Pacific Division their last six games, and the Trailblazers are a very respectable 12-4 ATS when playing their last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Favorite is also a stellar 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Portland while the Sacramento Kings are a terrible 6-14 ATS when playing in their last twenty Tuesday's encounters. We look for the Portland Trailblazers to roll over the Sacramento Kings and grab the home ATS Win & cover tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

ANTHONY REDD

40-Dime - Portland State

20-Dime - UL-Lafayette

5-Dime - Wyoming

5-Dime - Georgia State

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, December 15,2009

Scott Delaney

40-Dime RIDER ... The battle of New Jersey, and it ain't as easy as it might seem for Rutgers.

While a victory over Rider might give the Scarlet Knights (7-2) their best nine-game start under fourth-year head coach Fred Hill, I'm looking at how big a win it would be for the Broncs tonight.

I'm counting on 7-4 Rider to give the Knights a tough battle. Hey, it's not impossible to think about an outright win. The last time the two New Jersey schools met at the Rutgers Athletic Center two years ago, the Broncs posted their only win in the series, which Rutgers leads 13-1.

The Scarlet Knights won last season's meeting, 66-62 at Sovereign Bank Arena in Trenton, but the Broncs are conceivably a better basketball team this season.

Four Rider players score in double figures, led by senior guard Ryan Thompson's 15.1 points per game. Sophomore guard Mike Rosario leads Rutgers with a 16.8 average.

Trust me, the Broncs like playing inside the RAC. There are a lot of Jersey kids on this roster, so this is a game that is always circled on the schedule. For the coaches, players and fans.

Get as much as you can with the underdog in this one.

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