NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The division rival Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are set to renew hostilities on Monday when they meet at Bradley Center.

The Bulls were defeated 105-86 by the Jazz last time out as a 7.5-point underdog. The 191 points went UNDER the posted total o f 197.5.

Luol Deng had 26 points and eight rebounds in the loss.

Ersan Ilyasova had a double-double with 20 points and 16 rebounds in the Bucks' 100-98 loss to the Magic on Saturday, as 6.5-point underdogs. That game's 198 points made it OVER the posted total of 196.

Current streak:
Chicago has lost 4 straight games.
Milwaukee has lost 4 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS
Milwaukee: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing Utah are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6

Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing Washington are 4-6
After playing Orlando are 1-9
After a loss are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next up:
Chicago home to Detroit, Wednesday, December 2
Milwaukee at Washington, Wednesday, December 2


Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at American Airlines Center.

The 76ers lost to San Antonio 97-89 as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (195.5).

Andre Iguodala led Philadelphia with 21 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, while Willie Green had 17 points.

The Mavericks were defeated 111-95 by the Cavaliers last time out as a 6.5-point underdog. That game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 194.5.

Dirk Nowitzki tossed in 27 points with nine rebounds in the loss.

Current streak:
Philadelphia has lost 6 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 5-12 SU, 7-10 ATS
Dallas: 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing New Jersey are 5-5
After playing Cleveland are 8-2
After a loss are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Next up:
Philadelphia at Oklahoma City, Wednesday, December 2
Dallas at New Jersey, Wednesday, December 2


Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at EnergySolutions Arena.

The Grizzlies lost to the Clippers 98-88 as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (197.5).

Marc Gasol led Memphis with 26 points and Rudy Gay delivered 15 points and 10 rebounds.

The Jazz built up a 15-point lead after the first quarter en route to a 108-92 victory over the Trail Blazers on Saturday. The Jazz covered the 5-point spread, while the 200 points made it OVER the posted total of 190.

Deron Williams had 24 points with six rebounds, while dishing out 15 assists to lead the way.

Current streak:
Utah has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Memphis: 6-11 SU, 8-9 ATS
Utah: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS

Memphis most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6

Utah most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Indiana are 4-6
After playing Portland are 6-4
After a win are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Memphis is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Memphis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Memphis

Next up:
Memphis at Minnesota, Wednesday, December 2
Utah home to Indiana, Friday, December 4


Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors

The Indiana Pacers and the Golden State Warriors will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Oracle Arena.

Danny Granger dropped 20 points in the Pacers' 113-92 loss to the Mavericks last time out as a 2.5-point underdog. The game's combined score made it OVER the posted total of 202.

The Warriors were defeated 130-97 by the Lakers last time out as a 9-point underdog. The 227 points made it OVER the posted total of 222.

Monta Ellis had 18 points with five rebounds in a losing effort.

Current streak:
Golden State has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Indiana: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS
Golden State: 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS

Indiana most recently:
When playing on Monday are 2-8
Before playing Sacramento are 4-6
After playing Dallas are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5

Golden State most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 4-6
After playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Golden State's last 21 games at home

Next up:
Indiana at Sacramento, Wednesday, December 2
Golden State at Denver, Tuesday, December 1

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

Chicago (6-8, 4-10 ATS) at Milwaukee (8-7, 9-6 ATS)

The Bulls wrap up a six-game road trip that began back on Nov. 17 when they travel to the Bradley Center to battle the Bucks.

After beating Sacramento 110-87 to begin this journey, Chicago has dropped the last four games (SU and ATS) and hasn’t hit triple digits since that opening win against the Kings. Most recently, the Bulls lost 105-86 in Utah as seven-point underdogs on Thursday. They are averaging 91 points a game this season and shooting just 43.3 percent from the field, and on defense they have allowed 106.8 points a game and 50.7 percent shooting during this road trip.

Milwaukee started out 8-3 but has now lost four in a row (1-3 ATS), including Saturday’s tough 100-98 loss to Orlando, but they cashed as a seven-point home underdog. The Bucks have only reached triple digits once in the last seven games after scoring 102 or more for four straight contests.

These teams met back on Nov. 3 in Chicago with the Bulls pulling out an 83-81 victory but falling well short as 8½-point favorites. Chicago has won seven of the last eight meetings (4-4 ATS) and two of the last three in Milwaukee (SU and ATS). The favorite has a 5-1 ATS edge in the last six series clashes.

The Bulls are on ATS runs of 8-3 against Central Division teams and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after getting three or more days off, however they are on pointspread slides of 1-8 against the Eastern Conference, 0-4 on this road trip, 0-5 as a road ‘dog, 1-9-1 after a straight-up loss and 1-4 after a non-cover. Milwaukee is on ATS upticks of 6-0 against the Eastern Conference, 8-2 at home, 6-2 as a favorite and 9-4 as a home chalk of less than five points.

Chicago is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 9-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 as an underdog and 4-0 against Central Division teams. The Bucks have stayed below the total in six of nine against Eastern Conference teams, but they are on “over” streaks of 6-0 overall, 4-0 after getting a day off, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 after a straight-up loss. Finally, the “over” is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

NBA RoundUp for 11/30
by Dan Bebe

Another wacky Sunday in the books, with the Timberwolves coming through in a most unlikely of scenarios, and the Hawks putting forth a truly pedestrian effort in Motown. I must say, teams just do not seem to like playing in Detroit and Charlotte. I don't know if it's the hotel, the temperature in the arena, or what, but it just seems like we see some of the laziest performances in those two cities. That's not to say the home team is going to win, because let's face it, the Pistons aren't very good, but whatever they put in the water certainly gives them a chance to win an ugly one, like they did on football Sunday.

Sports Wagering

Bucks/Bulls -
Bucks by 2.5 with a total of 195.5. I think this is a nice bounceback spot for Milwaukee. This Bucks team is coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Magic, and in most cases this is a situation where I'd look for a carry-over to the next one, but Milwaukee is simply too good at home for that the carry-over to be the biggest factor involved in this one. That loss to Orlando was only Milwaukee's second home loss this year, and they should not be ashamed of dropping a close one to one of the strongest road teams in the NBA. Instead, and I think this is what we'll see, this team should look ahead to a very beatable Chicago Bulls club that is almost as bad on the road as Milwaukee is good at home. The Bulls have lost 4 in a row, SU and ATS, and they are showing zero signs of pulling out of this tailspin. In fact, on their current 6-game road trip, which happens to conclude in Milwaukee, the Bulls are 1-4, the lone win coming in the roadie opener at Sacramento. Chicago is 2-7 SU and ATS away from home, and Kirk Hinrich missed the last game, which doesn't at all help their cause. There isn't much "value" in this game, per say, as both teams have been losing, losing and losing some more, but given that both teams are undervalued at the moment, I think you simply have to err on the side of the home team in a short spread situation. In terms of the total, the Bucks have gone Over in 6 straight games, which says a great deal about how this team has been trying to play with Bogut injured. They are trying to speed things up a bit, and their defense has suffered, too. In this one, though, I'm just not sure I can trust the Bulls to score enough to help us get to our cause. Solid lean to the Buckos, very slight lean to the Over.

Mavericks/Sixers - Mavs by 10.5 at home with a total of 200. Bottom line on this one is that BOTH teams are in typical fade spots. The Sixers are on the second half of a back-to-back, with the first half occurring in the physical confines in San Antonio, so they're likely to be tired, and already short-handed, trying to play with the Mavs is a tall order for the remaining healthy bodies. The Mavs are coming home after a road trip, though, to be fair, it was only a 3-gamer. Still, I generally don't like backing a team coming home off a trip where they got blown out in the finale, which is precisely what happened to the Mavs. Dallas shot the ball at a ridiculous clip in the first 2 games of that roadie, which makes the loss in Cleveland even less surprising. We know they're a very, very good home team, but which factors outweigh which others when trying to set a line for this one? I'd be inclined to think Dallas covers this game by just a hair, but it's almost too close to call. The total at 200 tells me very little, unfortunately, though the Mavs have gone Over in their last 3 games, but Philly might struggle to score, so I'd lean slightly to the Under, or nothing at all.

Jazz/Grizzlies - Utah is back to being a double-digit home favorite again, but at least we got a value win out of them while we could: Jazz by 10 with a total of 207.5. Memphis is not in an enviable situation here, coming off a monster 4th quarter collapse in California, then hopping a plane to Utah and trying to handle a red-hot Jazz club on short rest. The only positive is that the game against the Clippers ended early, so they likely got into Utah at a slightly more reasonable hour than usual. Still, the Grizzlies are a very young team, and I'm not sure I see them bouncing back immediately from that sort of meltdown. Memphis was coming off that huge win in Portland, so it wasn't surprising to see them lose to a worse team, but it WAS surprising to see how they lost. 10 points is a lot to cover, but Utah has been blowing out anything coming their way this week, and I'd make a slight lean to Utah on this big spread. The total of 207.5 is hittable, but only if Memphis can actually play a full 48 minutes. I'd lean slightly to the Under, but only microscopically so.

Warriors/Pacers - Warriors by 2.5 at home with a total of 228. This total is extremely high, given the Pacers have broken 100 only once in their last 5 games, and that was against, of course, the Raptors. They've lost 5 of 6, BUT they've allowed over 100 points in all 5 of those losses. We knew this team was not built to win with defense, and I don't think it's going too far out on a limb to suggest the Warriors will probably break 100 points on their home floor. Maybe the most frustrating part of the Pacers teamwide slump is that they have not shot better than 47% from the floor in quite some time, and while I realize this team is a volume-shooting team, if you're going to run a fast-paced offense, giving up 105 points, you have to be getting good shots and making them! The total is not my favorite here, since we just don't know if Indiana can put up the points necessary. The side definitely favors the Warriors. They're coming off getting blown out by the Lakers, but they ALWAYS get worked over by LA. Golden State is playing better basketball without Stephen Jackson, and while the Pacers have a size advantage (who doesn't?), I think the home floor should be enough to get Golden State a win. The Pacers aren't that much worse on the road, which does put a slight shiver into this lean, but the Warriors are playing decent ball, and we'll see how this line moves before making our own decisions.

Fantasy Advice

Ben Wallace -
I've said it before, but it bears repeating, Big Ben's alarm goes off when he's playing at home. He's a beast at the Palace. At home, 4 points, almost 12 boards, 2 steals and 2 blocks per game; on the road, still 4 points, but only 7 boards, and less than a steal and block per contest. It's weird, but exploitable.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

Tips and Trends

Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors


Pacers: Indiana is playing their worst basketball of the year right now. They've lost 5 of their past 6 games, both SU and ATS. The Pacers have played 5 road games this year, going 2-3 both SU and ATS. The reason for their recent slide has been their defensive effort. Indiana is getting healthier, as both F Mike Dunleavy and F Danny Granger are back on the court. Granger is averaging nearly 25 PPG this season. G Dahntay Jones has been a revelation this season, as he averages 16 PPG this season. Jones came to Indiana primarily for defense, but he's scored in double figures in 12 of 14 games this season.

Pacers are 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - F Danny Granger (knee) is probable.
F Tyler Hansbrough (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 209


Warriors (-2, O/U 228): This is only the 2nd time this season the Warriors have played back to back games at home. They are 3-3 ATS at home this year. Despite being only 5-10 SU this year, they've won 6 of their last 8 games ATS. This Warriors offense is 3rd in the NBA in scoring, at over 105 PPG. However, the Warriors are the only team in the NBA allowing more than 110 PPG. Golden St. has 8 players averaging double digits, with G Monta Ellis leading the way with 23 PPG. The Warriors lost to the Pacers earlier this season in Indiana.   

Warriors are 15-5-1 last 21 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games as a home favorite.

G Raja Bell (wrist) is out.
C Andris Biedrins (abdominal) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 218 (Side of the Day)

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer

Bulls at Bucks - The Bulls are 0-9-1 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since February 27, 2009 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which John Salmons was not the Bulls’ high scorer. The League is 0-8 ATS (-5.5 ppg) since April 23, 2008 as a road dog with two or more days of rest when they have lost and failed to covered their last four games. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since November 05, 2008 after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since March 22, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 0-10 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since March 25, 2007 at home when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since March 16, 2003 with at most one day of rest off a home loss in which they led by 15+ points. The Bulls are 0-7 OU (-17.8 ppg) since February 13, 2005 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Bucks are 0-9 OU (-14.8 ppg) since March 30, 2004 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by double digits.
   
Grizzlies at Jazz - The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since March 01, 2000 as a road dog with no rest after a double digit loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Jazz are 9-0-2 ATS (8.6 ppg) since April 18, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they had at least thirty assists. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 10, 2007 versus the Grizzlies. The Jazz are 7-0-2 ATS (7.7 ppg) since January 26, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since April 02, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since March 25, 2008 when they are playing in at least their third straight home game and they play at home in their next game. The Jazz are 6-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since March 27, 2006 after a game at home in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Jazz are 6-0 OU (5.8 ppg) since April 02, 2008 at home after a home win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

76ers at Mavericks - The Seventysixers are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 31, 2007 when playing the second of back-to-back road games after losing the first as a dog. The Seventysixers are 0-6 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since March 29, 2006 after a road loss in which they had at least 12 steals. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since December 03, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) since November 13, 2007 at home after a game on the road in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Mavericks are 7-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since March 02, 1997 at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.

Pacers at Warriors - The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since November 07, 2008 on the road after two home games in which Roy Hibbert played fewer than 30 minutes in each. The Warriors are 12-0-1 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 15, 2001 when playing the second game of a two game homestand after losing the first as a dog. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since February 20, 2008 at home when facing a non-conference team they lost to on the road in their first match-up of the season. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since November 25, 2001 at home after a double digit loss against the Lakers. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since February 09, 2007 at home after a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Warriors are 8-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since March 26, 2007 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds.

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Re: NBA News and Notes Monday 11/30

Stan's Sharp Move for Monday
By Stan Sharp

Chicago @ Milwaukee

Total Opened 196 now 195

Stan notes this game opened at 196 at the Greek and at Cris. This was immediately bet to 195 and considering that the Milwaukee Bucks have gone over 9 of the last 10 games the Wise Guys still moved on the Under showing that they like this number a lot. Normally with a Under Bet especially involving a team that has been going over the wise guys would wait to see if the public bet the line up further. Stan's take the Wise Guys have spoken so you should listen and Play the Under.   

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